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[定期翻译] ENSO监测翻译

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发表于 2012-3-14 22:42 | 显示全部楼层
拉尼娜即將結束
La Niña nears its end(13-3-2012)
The 2011–12 La Niña event is nearing its end, with most indicators approaching or at neutral values. Climate models surveyed by the Bureau of Meteorology suggest that the Pacific Ocean will continue to warm over the coming months, with a neutral ENSO state expected to persist at least through the second half of autumn. While La Niña is nearing its end, waters around Australia remain warmer than normal, maintaining the potential for increased rainfall over the continent.
隨著大部分的指標趨於或達到正常水平, 2011-12年的拉尼娜事件即將結束. 氣象局的氣候模式指出, 未來數個月太平洋會繼續變暖, 同時中性的ENSO狀態, 預料最少會維持到(南半球的)秋季的後期. 在拉尼娜事件即將結束之時, 澳洲附近的水溫會繼續比正常為暖, 內陸地區雨量增加的機會仍然存在.
The declining state of the La Niña is evident in several indicators. Sea surface temperatures across the central tropical Pacific Ocean are now near-normal and the Southern Oscillation Index (SOI) has been in the neutral range since late February. Central Pacific trade winds have weakened over the past fortnight, while cloudiness near the Date Line has also returned towards more normal levels.
數項指標支持拉尼娜事件的減退. 熱帶中太平洋的的海水表面溫度接近正常, 同時, 從2月下旬開始, 南方濤動指數(SOI)已經進入中性的範圍. 過去兩星期, 中太平洋信風減弱, 同時換日線附近的雲量, 已經回復至接近正常的水平.
During La Niña events, the number of tropical cyclones in the Australian region is typically above normal over the November to April tropical cyclone season, with February and March the peak. The influence of La Niña on Australian rainfall and temperature typically peaks during winter to mid-summer, and then weakens over the following autumn.
在拉尼娜事件下,11-4月的風季期間, 在澳洲地區的熱帶氣旋數目, 一般是會比正常為多的.
The Indian Ocean Dipole (IOD) has limited influence on Australian rainfall from December through to April. Neutral IOD conditions are forecast for the austral winter.
印度洋偶極子(IOD)對12-4月期間澳洲雨量的影響不大. 中性的IOD狀態, 預計會在南半球的冬季出現.


Sea Surface Temperatures
海洋表層溫度

Monthly sea surface temperatures:每月海洋表層溫度:
Sea surface temperature (SST) anomalies in the central and eastern equatorial Pacific Ocean warmed during February. However, the sea surface temperature (SST) anomaly map for February shows small areas of cool anomalies more than 1 °C cooler than normal still remain in the central Pacific.在2月期間, 赤道太平洋中部和東部的海洋表層溫度(SST)負距平區, 有回暖的情況. 可是2月的SST距平圖指出, 中太平洋仍然有負距平多於1度的細小區域.

Index

January

February

Temperature change

NINO3

−0.4

+0.1

0.5 °C warmer

NINO3.4

−0.9

−0.5

0.4 °C warmer

NINO4

−1.0

−0.7

0.3 °C warmer

sst_monthly.gif

Weekly sea surface temperatures:
每周海洋表層溫度:
Sea surface temperatures in the eastern equatorial Pacific have shown a reduction in the extent of warm anomalies during the past two weeks, with an area of cooler-than-usual water emerging north of the equator. Anomalies in the central equatorial Pacific remain generally similar to the preceding fortnight, although there has been some warming of sea surface temperatures immediately west of the Date Line and to the north of Australia. The SST anomaly map for the week ending 11 March shows cool anomalies remain in the central equatorial Pacific, with some areas more than 1 °C cooler than normal for this time of the year.
和兩星期前的距平圖相比,赤道東太平洋的正距平區範圍, 有一定程度的縮小; 同時在赤道以北有一負距平區的出現. 赤道中太平洋的正距平區, 和兩星期前的狀況大致相近, 儘管在換日線以西至澳洲以北的海域, SST有上升的情況. 直到11月6日為止的SST距平圖顯示,赤道中太平洋的負距平繼續維持. 當中部分區域的負距平, 較往年同期多於1度.

Index

Previous

Current

Temperaturechange
(2 weeks)

NINO3

+0.5

−0.1

0.6 °Ccooler

NINO3.4

−0.2

−0.4

0.2 °Ccooler

NINO4

−0.6

−0.5

0.1 °Cwarmer

sst_weekly.gif



Sub-surface Pacific Ocean temperatures
太平洋地區的次表層海溫
Monthly sub-surface:
每月次表層海溫:
The four-month sequence of sub-surface Pacific Ocean equatorial temperature anomalies shows cool anomalies in the sub-surface of the central and eastern Pacific contracted during February, and shallow warm anomalies emerged in the far eastern Pacific. In the sub-surface of the eastern Pacific the large volume of cooler-than-usual water remains more than 4 °C cooler than average, while in the west, warm anomalies have continued to strengthen, with an increase in the volume of water more than 4 °C warmer than average.
過去4個月的次表層海溫距平序列指出, 太平洋中部和東部的次表層海溫負距平, 在2月有所縮小; 而遠東太平洋, 則出現了較淺\的正距平. 在東太平洋的次表層, 繼續存在著一大片比平均值低4度的海水; 同時在西太平洋, 正距平的情況持續加強, 該區的水溫上升至較平均值高出4度的水平.
sub_surf_mon.gif


Weekly sub-surface:
每周次表層海溫:
The volume of cooler than average water in the sub-surface of the eastern tropical Pacific has continued to decrease over the past two weeks. The map for the 5 days ending 11 March shows a small volume of water more than 3 °C cooler than usual for this time of the year remains in the sub-surface. Shallow warm anomalies in the far eastern tropical Pacific and warm sub-surface anomalies in the western Pacific remain relatively unchanged compared with two weeks ago.
和兩星期前相比,熱帶東太平洋次表層的負距平範圍, 正持續地減少. 從直到3月5日為止的5天距平圖看到, 有一小片比同期平均值低3度的海水, 仍然在次表層徘徊. 至於遠東太平洋上較淺\的正距平區, 以及西太平洋的次表層正距平區, 和兩星期前的情況相比之下, 似乎仍是沒有太大的變化.
sub_surf_tao.gif




Southern Oscillation Index:
南方濤動指數:
During the past fortnight, the Southern Oscillation Index (SOI) has fluctuated within low positive values, and has now been within neutral ENSO range since late February. The latest (11 March) 30-day SOI value is +2.7.
過去兩星期, 南方濤動指數(SOI)在較低的正值附近波動, 而SOI從2月下旬開始, 已是維持在ENSO的中性範圍. 最新(3月11日)的30天SOI數值是+2.7。
Sustained positive values of the SOI above +8 may indicate a La Niña event, while sustained negative values below −8 may indicate an El Niño event. Values of between about +8 and −8 generally indicate neutral conditions.
SOI持續在+8以上,可能意味著拉尼娜事件的發生;而SOI持續在-8以上,可能意味著厄爾尼諾事件的發生。SOI在+8和-8之間維持的話,通常表示情況為中性。
soi30.png


Trade winds:
信風:
Trade winds have weakened in the central tropical Pacific over the past two weeks. The latest wind anomaly map, for the 5 days ending 11 March, shows trade winds continue to be stronger than average across the far western equatorial Pacific.
和兩星期前相比,中太平洋的信風減弱了. 直到3月11日為止的最新一幅5天風力距平圖, 指出在赤道太平洋的遠西地區, 信風會繼續比正常為強的.
During La Niña events, there is a sustained strengthening of the trade winds across much of the tropical Pacific, while during El Niño events there is a sustained weakening of the trade winds.
在拉尼娜事件下,赤道太平洋地區的大部分地區的信風會持續增強;而在厄爾尼諾事件下,信風會持續減弱。
sst_wind_anom_5day.large.gif


Cloudiness near the Date Line:
換日線附近的雲量:
Cloudiness near the Date Line has remained suppressed over the past two weeks.
在過去兩星期,換日線附近的雲量維持偏少。
Cloudiness along the equator, near the Date Line, is an important indicator of ENSO conditions, as it typically increases (negative OLR anomalies) near and to the east of the Date Line during an El Niño event and decreases (positive OLR anomalies) during a La Niña event.
換日線附近的赤道地區雲量,是ENSO狀況的重要指標之一,因為在厄爾尼諾事件下,換日線附近和以東的雲量通常會增加(OLR負距平),而在拉尼娜事件下則會減少(OLR正距平)。
region.ts.dateline.gif


Climate Models:
氣候模式:
All outlooks from leading international climate models surveyed by the Bureau forecast neutral ENSO conditions for the coming remainder of autumn.
本局參考了大部分國際領先的氣候模式,全部都預測中性的ENSO狀態, 會在餘下的(南半球的)秋季繼續維持.
poama.nino34.gif


Indian Ocean Dipole:
印度洋偶極子:
The Indian Ocean Dipole (IOD) typically has little influence in Australia over summer. The IOD index is currently neutral.
正常來說, 印度洋偶極子(IOD)對澳洲的夏季, 只有很少的影響. 現在的IOD指數處於中性的水平.
Recent forecasts from the POAMA model predict neutral IOD conditions for autumn.
最近POAMA的預報模式預測, IOD在(南半球的)秋季維持中性狀態.
poama.iod.gif
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发表于 2012-3-27 19:22 | 显示全部楼层
The 2011–12 La Niña reaches its end
2011-12年度的拉尼娜事件已经结束
Issued on Tuesday 27 March
3月27日公布


The 2011–12 La Niña event has ended, with key indicators returning to neutral (neither El Niño nor La Niña) levels. Climate models surveyed by the Bureau of Meteorology suggest that neutral conditions will persist until at least early winter.

2011-12年度的拉尼娜事件已经结束,各项关键指标回归到中性(无论是厄尔尼诺还是拉尼娜)水平。由气象局调查的气候模型表明,中性条件将至少持续至初冬。

Key Pacific Ocean indicators are now at neutral levels, with values similar to those last seen in August 2011. Likewise, atmospheric indicators such as cloudiness, trade winds and the Southern Oscillation Index (SOI) have also returned to near-normal values for this time of year. Despite the 2011–12 La Niña not commencing until far later than normal (spring), the decline has been fairly typical of past events, with a peak in January and a return to neutral conditions during autumn.
关键的太平洋海域指标现在是在中性的水平,类似于 2011年8月的值。同样,大气指标,例如云量,信风和南方涛动指数(SOI)也已恢复接近到每年这个时候的正常值。不过2011-12年没有拉尼娜现象起直至迟于正常(春季),在一月份到达峰值和在秋季返回到中性条件,相对于过去的事件,跌幅相当突出。
The demise of the La Niña does not mean the risk of wet conditions (or tropical cyclones) over Australia has ended. While sea surface temperatures around the continent remain warmer than normal and the tropical wet season is active, there remains a risk of above average rainfall over Australia.
拉尼娜现象的结束并不意味着澳大利亚多雨条件(或热带气旋)的风险已经结束。当大陆周围的海水表面温度保持较正常温暖时,热带雨季是活跃的,澳大利亚仍有超过平均降雨量以上的风险。
The Indian Ocean Dipole (IOD) has limited influence on Australian rainfall from December through to April. Neutral IOD conditions are forecast for the southern hemisphere winter.
印度洋偶极子(IOD)值对十二月直至四月的澳大利亚降雨影响有限。预测南半球冬季的IOD为中性条件。
•        Indian Ocean
•        印度洋
Sea Surface Temperatures
海洋表面温度:
Monthly sea surface temperatures:
每月的海洋表面温度:
Sea surface temperature (SST) anomalies in the central and eastern equatorial Pacific Ocean warmed during February. However, the sea surface temperature (SST) anomaly map for February shows small areas of cool anomalies more than 1 °C cooler than normal still remain in the central Pacific.
二月的中部和东部赤道太平洋海洋表面温度(SST)暖距平。但是,海洋表面温度(SST)二月距平图显示冷距平低于正常1°C以下的小区域仍然留在中部太平洋。


[tr][td]
IndexJanuaryFebruaryTemperature change
NINO3−0.4+0.10.5 °C warmer
NINO3.4−0.9−0.50.4 °C warmer
NINO4−1.0−0.70.3 °C warmer
1.gif



Weekly sea surface temperatures:
每周的海洋表面温度:
Sea surface temperatures across the equatorial Pacific Ocean have generally warmed (though only slightly) compared to those of two weeks ago. All three NINO indices monitored have warmed in the past fortnight; both warm anomalies (in the far western Pacific) and cool anomalies (in the central Pacific) are broadly becoming less pronounced with the return of neutral conditions. The SST anomaly map for the week ending 25 March shows mostly near-normal sea-surface temperatures in the equatorial Pacific, with some residual cool anomalies across the central equatorial Pacific.
整个赤道太平洋海洋表面温度总体比两个星期前暖(虽然仅略有)。在过去的两周里所有这三个NINO指数监测回暖;暖距平(在遥远的西太平洋)和冷距平(在太平洋中部)普遍变得不那么明显且中性条件已经返回。截至3月25日的一周内的海温距平图显示在赤道太平洋海洋表面温度大多是接近正常,整个赤道太平洋中部剩余的一小部分是冷距平。
[tr][td]
IndexPreviousCurrentTemperature change
(2 weeks)
NINO3−0.1+0.10.2 °C warmer
NINO3.4−0.4−0.30.1 °C warmer
NINO4−0.5−0.30.2 °C warmer

2.gif



Sub-surface Pacific Ocean temperatures
太平洋次表层温度:
Monthly sub-surface:
每月的次表层:
3.gif
The four-month sequence of sub-surface Pacific Ocean equatorial temperature anomalies to 26 March shows cool anomalies remain in the sub-surface of the eastern Pacific, although they have continued to contract during March. Cool anomalies in the sub-surface of the eastern Pacific have been declining since late January, with a steady decrease in the volume of water more than 4 °C cooler than average. Sub-surface warm anomalies in the western equatorial Pacific have also contracted compared to last month; a small volume of water here remains more than 4 °C warmer than average.
赤道太平洋次表层为期四个月的温度距平序列显示,3月26日东太平洋次表层仍然保持冷距平,虽然他们在三月份期间继续维持,但1月下旬以来,东太平洋次表层冷距平一直在下降,比平均水平冷4℃的水体积持续下降。在赤道西太平洋次表层暖距平与上个月相比也已收缩,这里只有小部分体积的水温暖仍然高于平均水平4℃。         

Weekly sub-surface:
每周次表层:
4.gif
The volume of cooler than average water in the sub-surface of the eastern tropical Pacific has increased, on a 5-day scale, when compared to two weeks ago. The map for the 5 days ending 25 March shows an increase in the volume of water more than 3 °C cooler than usual for this time of year, while there has been a general, though small, warming of waters closer to the surface. Shallow warm anomalies in the far eastern tropical Pacific and warm sub-surface anomalies in the western Pacific remain relatively unchanged compared with two weeks ago.
当为期5天的规模与两个星期前相比,东部热带太平洋次表层冷水的数量有所增加。截至3月25日的5天的图显示冷超过以往每年这个时候的正常值3°C的水体积增加,同时普遍出现了更接近表面的水域变暖,虽然很小。在遥远东部的热带太平洋次表层浅层暖距平和在西太平洋的暖距平同两周前相比,相对保持不变。         

Southern Oscillation Index:
南方涛动指数:
The Southern Oscillation Index (SOI) rose early in the last fortnight before holding around +7 for the past week, remaining within values indicative of neutral ENSO conditions. The SOI has remained within neutral values since mid to late February. The latest (25 March) 30-day SOI value is +7.1.
南方涛动指数(SOI)早在过去两周之前上升,过去一周内维持在+7左右,其余范围内的数值表明ENSO的中性条件。二月中旬以来至下旬SOI一直维持在中性值。最近30天的(3月25日)SOI值是+7.1。
Sustained positive values of the SOI above +8 may indicate a La Niña event, while sustained negative values below −8 may indicate an El Niño event. Values of between about +8 and −8 generally indicate neutral conditions.
SOI值持续超过+8的正相位可能表明拉尼娜事件,而SOI值持续低于-8的负相位可能预示厄尔尼诺事件。 +8和-8之间的值通常表明中性条件。
5.png
Trade winds:
信风:
Trade winds have weakened over the past two weeks. Across most of the equatorial Pacific wind anomalies are near normal, except for westerly anomalies in the far western equatorial Pacific, associated with the passage of the Madden-Julian Oscillation (see wind anomaly map for the 5 days ending 25 March).
在过去的两个星期信风减弱。赤道太平洋风距平大部分接近正常,但在遥远赤道西太平洋的风距平仍伴有季节内振荡(截至3月25日的为期5天,见风距平图)。
During La Niña events, there is a sustained strengthening of the trade winds across much of the tropical Pacific, while during El Niño events there is a sustained weakening of the trade winds.
在拉尼娜事件期间,跨热带太平洋大部分的信风持续加强,而在厄尔尼诺事件中,信风持续的减弱。
6.gif
Cloudiness near the Date Line:
换日线附近的云量:
Cloudiness near the dateline has remained suppressed over the past two weeks, but is returning to values typical for this time of year.
在过去的两周里,换日线附近的云量仍然受到抑制,但已返回到每年这个时候的一般水平。
Cloudiness along the equator, near the Date Line, is an important indicator of ENSO conditions, as it typically increases (negative OLR anomalies) near and to the east of the Date Line during an El Niño event and decreases (positive OLR anomalies) during a La Niña event.
沿赤道换日线附近的云量,是ENSO条件的重要指标,因为厄尔尼诺事件期间换日线以东附近的云量通常增加(负相位的OLR距平),拉尼娜事件期间云量降低(正相位的OLR距平)。
7.gif
Climate Models:
气候模型:
All outlooks from leading international climate models surveyed by the Bureau forecast neutral ENSO conditions for the remainder of autumn and early winter.

本局参考了所有国际领先的气候模型,预测秋季和初冬的其余部分为中性ENSO条件。
8.gif
Indian Ocean Dipole:
印度洋偶极子:
The Indian Ocean Dipole (IOD) typically has little influence in Australia between December and April. The IOD index is currently neutral.
印度洋偶极子(IOD)值对十二月至四月间在澳大利亚的影响通常不大。偶极子指数目前保持中性。
Recent forecasts from the POAMA model predict neutral IOD conditions for autumn and winter.
从最近的POAMA模型预测秋季和冬季的IOD条件为中性。
9.gif
帖子中涉及地图来源广泛,图中所涉及的行政区域以中国官方认定的为准。
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发表于 2012-4-10 18:32 | 显示全部楼层
Tropical Pacific remains ENSO-neutral
热带太平洋ENSO依然处于中性条件(2012.04.08)

Following the demise of the 2011–12 La Niña, the state of ENSO across the tropical Pacific remains neutral (neither El Niño nor La Niña). Climate models surveyed by the Bureau of Meteorology suggest that, although the Pacific Ocean will continue to warm over the coming months, a neutral ENSO state will persist into the southern hemisphere winter. Historically, about 70% of the time neutral or El Niño conditions have developed in the year following a 2-year La Niña event.
随着2011-12拉尼娜现象的结束,热带太平洋的ENSO再度回归中性(既未发生厄尔尼诺现象也未发生拉尼娜现象)。调查局的气候模型表明,虽然热带太平洋地区在未来几个月内将继续保持温暖,但是ENSO的中性条件将持续到南半球冬季。从历史上看,在持续2年的拉尼娜现象结束后,今年约有70%的概率保持中性或发生厄尔尼诺现象。
The main signs of ENSO, including trade winds, the Southern Oscillation Index (SOI), cloudiness near the Date Line and ocean temperatures, have all returned to near-normal levels. The SOI is at its lowest level since early 2010, while the equatorial Pacific has warmed by about 0.2 to 0.4 °C during the past fortnight.
包括信风,南方涛动指数(SOI),换日线附近云量及海温在内的ENSO指标已全部恢复或接近正常水平。SOI更达到自2010年初以来的最低水平,而赤道太平洋地区海温在过去两周内有所回暖,上升了约0.2-0.4℃。
The Indian Ocean Dipole (IOD) has limited influence on Australian rainfall from December through to April. Neutral IOD conditions are forecast for the southern hemisphere winter.
印度洋偶极子(IOD)对澳大利亚十二月至四月的降雨有一定的影响。预计IOD将在南半球的冬季中保持中性。
Sea Surface Temperatures
海洋表面温度

Monthly sea surface temperatures:
每月海洋表面温度:

Sea surface temperature (SST) in the central and eastern equatorial Pacific Ocean warmed during March. The SST anomaly map for March shows SSTs were near normal across most of the tropical Pacific. Small areas of warm anomalies more than 1 °C warmer than usual are present in the far east, near the equator and along the South American coast.
1月赤道太平洋中部地区的海温(SST)十分温暖,1月海面温度(SST)距平图显示,热带太平洋大部分地区的海温已回归正常,目前远东太平洋,赤道太平洋以及南美洲海岸的部分地区出现了1℃以上的正距平。

Index     February     March     Temperature change
NINO3     +0.1     +0.1     no change
NINO3.4     −0.5     −0.3     0.2 °C warmer
NINO4     −0.7     −0.4     0.3 °C warmer
1.gif
Weekly sea surface temperatures:
每周海洋表面温度:

All three NINO indices monitored have continued to warm during the past fortnight. Ocean temperature in these regions are mostly near normal for this time of the year. Warm anomalies in the far eastern Pacific have intensified over the past two weeks. The SST anomaly map for the week ending 8 April shows neutral sea-surface temperature anomalies across most of the equatorial Pacific, with slight residual cool anomalies north of the equator in the central Pacific, and a small area of temperatures more than 2 °C warmer than usual, on a weekly scale, in the far eastern tropical Pacific.
全部3个NINO海区在过去两周内均保持温暖。在今年剩下的大部分时间内,这些海区的温度将保持正常。过去两周内,远东太平洋的正距平有所加强。截至4月8日的一周海温距平图显示,赤道太平洋大部分地区的海面温度回归正常,而赤道太平洋中部以北部分地区仍为负距平,就1周平均水平来讲,热带太平洋远东的小部分地区温度出现超过2℃的正距平。
Index     Previous     Current     Temperature change
(2 weeks)
NINO3     +0.1     +0.5     0.4 °C warmer
NINO3.4     −0.3     −0.2     0.1 °C warmer
NINO4     −0.3     −0.2     0.1 °C warmer

2.gif
Pacific ocean sub-surface temperatures
太平洋次表层海温

Monthly sub-surface:
每月次表层海温:

The four-month sequence of sub-surface Pacific Ocean equatorial temperature anomalies to March shows cool anomalies remain in the sub-surface of the eastern Pacific, although they have continued to contract during March. Cool anomalies in the sub-surface of the eastern Pacific have been declining since late January, with a steady decrease in the volume of water more than 4 °C cooler than average. Sub-surface warm anomalies in the western equatorial Pacific have also contracted when compared to last month; a small volume of water here remains more than 4 °C warmer than average.
四个月次表层海温异常图表明,三月东太平洋赤道地区次表层海温虽有所回升,但仍保持负距平,但是负距平区域却不断减少,自1月下旬以来,出现4°C负距平地区面积稳步下降。而赤道西太平洋次表层海温出现正距平的地区也多于上月,部分地区出现超过4℃正距平。
3.gif
Weekly sub-surface:
每周次表层海温:

Over the past fortnight the volume of cooler than average water in the sub-surface of the eastern equatorial Pacific has shown an overall decrease, on a 5-day scale. However, the strength of the anomaly of the coolest water here has increased; a small volume is now more than 4 °C cooler than usual for this time of year. The map for the 5 days ending 8 April also shows a continued warming of shallow warm anomalies in the far eastern equatorial Pacific and warm sub-surface anomalies in the western Pacific, when compared to two weeks ago.
通过对5天距平图的观察,在过去两周内,赤道东太平洋次表层水温负距平区整体趋势表现为减少。但同时负距平区的负距平程度却有所增加;少部分地区温度与每年同期相比偏低了2℃以上。截至4月8日的5天距平图也显示,与两周前相比,赤道太平洋远东地区及赤道西太平洋的次表层海温均持续转暖。
4.gif
Southern Oscillation Index:
南方涛动指数:

The Southern Oscillation Index (SOI) has decreased over the past fortnight, but remains within values indicative of neutral ENSO conditions. The latest (8 April) 30-day SOI value is −3.8. The SOI is at its lowest level since early 2010.
在过去两周内,南方涛动指数(SOI)有所下降,但仍然处于ENSO中性条件下。最新30天(至4月8日)的30天SOI值是-3.8,并达到2010年初以来的最低水平。
Sustained positive values of the SOI above +8 may indicate a La Niña event, while sustained negative values below −8 may indicate an El Niño event. Values of between about +8 and −8 generally indicate neutral conditions.
SOI持续在+8以上,可能意味着拉尼娜事件的发生;而SOI持续在-8以上,可能意味着厄尔尼诺事件的发生。 SOI在+8和-8之间维持的话,通常表示情况为中性。
5.png
Trade winds:
信风:

Trade winds have continued to weaken over the past two weeks. Westerly anomalies have expanded from the far western equatorial Pacific into the central Pacific (see wind anomaly map for the 5 days ending 8 April). Wind anomalies in the eastern equatorial Pacific are near normal.
在过去两周内信风继续减弱。赤道西太平洋远西地区的西风异常已扩大到赤道太平洋中部(截至4月8日的5天风力异常图)。而在赤道太平洋的东部的风力异常则接近正常水平。
During La Niña events, there is a sustained strengthening of the trade winds across much of the tropical Pacific, while during El Niño events there is a sustained weakening of the trade winds.
在拉尼娜事件发生时,赤道太平洋地区的大部分地区的信风会持续增强;而在厄尔尼诺事件发生时,信风会持续减弱。
6.gif
Cloudiness near the dateline:
换日线附近云量:

Cloudiness near the dateline has been slightly enhanced over most of the past two weeks, the first time negative OLR anomalies have been observed since mid-November last year.
在过去两周内,换日线附近大部分地区的云量有所升高,并观察到了去年11月中旬以来的首次OLR负距平。
Cloudiness along the equator, near the Date Line, is an important indicator of ENSO conditions, as it typically increases (negative OLR anomalies) near and to the east of the Date Line during an El Niño event and decreases (positive OLR anomalies) during a La Niña event.
换日线附近赤道地区云量是ENSO重要指标之一,在厄尔尼诺现象发生时,换日线附近及以东的云量通常会增加(OLR负距平),而在拉尼娜事件下则会减少(OLR正距平)。

7.gif
Climate Models:
气候模式:

All outlooks from leading international climate models surveyed by the Bureau forecast neutral ENSO conditions for the remainder of autumn and early winter. Three of the six models surveyed show the tropical Pacific approaching El Niño thresholds during the southern hemisphere spring.
本局参考了大部分国际领先的气候模式,ENSO将在秋季和初冬保持中性水平。在6个气候模式当中有3个显示热带太平洋将于南半球的春天接近厄尔尼诺现象的门槛。
8.gif
Indian Ocean Dipole:
印度洋偶极子:

The Indian Ocean Dipole (IOD) typically has little influence in Australia between December and April. The IOD index is currently neutral, with a value of +0.2 for the week ending 8 April.
印度洋偶极子(IOD)通常会对澳大利亚夏季气候造成一定影响但影响不大,该现象目前处于中等水平。截至4月8日一周内的IOD指数为-0.2。
Recent forecasts from the POAMA model predict neutral IOD conditions for autumn and winter.
最近POAMA模型预测指出,该事件将在秋季和冬季保持中等水平。
9.gif
层主吃了一斤小苹果 感觉自己萌~萌~哒~ (*/ω\*)
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金玉良言

发表于 2012-4-26 22:54 | 显示全部楼层
中性ENSO控制著太平洋
Neutral ENSO conditions dominate Pacific(24-4-2012)
Climate indicators across the tropical Pacific Ocean remain neutral (neither El Niño or La Niña). Climate models surveyed by the Bureau of Meteorology suggest that the tropical Pacific Ocean will remain at neutral levels at least into early winter.
熱帶太平洋的各項指標維持中性(不是厄爾尼諾, 也不是拉尼娜). 氣象局的氣候模式指出, 熱帶太平洋會保持中性, 並至少維持至(南半球的)冬季初期.
All major indicators of ENSO, including cloudiness, trade winds, the Southern Oscillation Index (SOI) and sea surface temperatures in the tropical Pacific, lie well within the ENSO-neutral range. Over the past week, the SOI has returned to values not seen since April 2010.
所有ENSO的指標(包括雲量, 信風, 南方濤動指數(SOI), 以及熱帶太平洋的海表溫度)皆分佈在中性ENSO的範圍之內. 在上星期, SOI已經回落至2010年4月以來的新低.
Some, but not all, climate models note an increased risk of El Niño conditions evolving during winter or spring. Historically, about 70% of two-year La Niña events are followed by neutral or El Niño phases.
部分(但非全部)的氣候模式注意到, 厄爾尼諾在(南半球的)冬季或春季期間的風險正在增加. 歷史上, 維持兩年的拉尼娜事件, 有70%會伴隨著中性或厄爾尼諾相位.
The Indian Ocean Dipole (IOD) has limited influence on Australian rainfall from December through to April. Model outlooks currently suggest neutral conditions are the most likely scenario heading into the southern winter.
印度洋偶極子(IOD)對12-4月期間澳洲雨量的影響不大. 現在大部分氣候模式認為, 在南半球的冬季, IOD最有可能朝著中性的方向發展.

Sea Surface Temperatures
海洋表層溫度
Monthly sea surface temperatures:
每月海洋表層溫度:
Sea surface temperature (SST) in the central and eastern equatorial Pacific Ocean warmed during March. The SST anomaly map for March shows SSTs were near normal across most of the tropical Pacific. Small areas of warm anomalies more than 1 °C warmer than usual are present in the far east, near the equator and along the South American coast.
赤道太平洋中部和東部的海表溫度(SST), 在3月份轉暖. 3月的SST距平圖指出, 太平洋大部分區域的SST接近正常. 在遠東地區, 赤道附近和南美洲海岸, 仍有少許正距平大於1度的區域.
IndexFebruaryMarchTemperature change
NINO3+0.1+0.1no change
NINO3.4−0.5−0.30.2 °C warmer
NINO4−0.7−0.40.3 °C warmer

sst_monthly.gif
Weekly sea surface temperatures:
每周海洋表層溫度:
The general distribution of warm and cool sea-surface temperature (SST) anomalies across the tropical Pacific Ocean remain similar to that of two weeks ago. All three NINO indices monitored remain within neutral values. The SST anomaly map for the week ending 22 April shows neutral sea-surface temperature anomalies across most of the equatorial Pacific. Some residual cool anomalies persist north of the equator in the central Pacific, with warm anomalies in the far east and far west of the tropical Pacific. The area covered by these warm anomalies in the far western Pacific has increased over the past two weeks.
海表溫度(SST)的正距平和負距平分佈, 和兩星期前的情況大致相近. 三項參照的NINO指數, 全部維持中性的數值. 直到4月22日為止的SST距平圖顯示, 大部分赤道太平洋地區的海表溫度距平值趨於中性. 在赤道以北的中太平洋地區, 仍有一些負距平區域存在; 同時, 在熱帶太平洋的遠東和遠西地區, 有正距平區域存在. 過去兩星期, 遠西太平洋的正距平區域有所擴大.
IndexPreviousCurrentTemperature change
(2 weeks)
NINO3+0.5+0.30.2 °C warmer
NINO3.4−0.2−0.2no change
NINO4−0.2−0.2no change

sst_weekly.gif


Sub-surface Pacific Ocean temperatures
太平洋地區的次表層海溫
Monthly sub-surface:
每月次表層海溫:
The four-month sequence of sub-surface Pacific Ocean equatorial temperature anomalies to 23 April shows a significant decay of cool anomalies in the sub-surface of the eastern Pacific over the past two months, most dramatically in April. Cool anomalies in the eastern Pacific sub-surface have been declining since late January. Only a small volume of water more than 2 °C cooler than average remains in the eastern Pacific. In the western Pacific warm anomalies remain generally similar to previous months, with water here slightly cooler during April, more than 3 °C warmer than average.
直至4月23日為止、過去4個月的赤道太平洋次表層海溫距平序列, 指出在過去兩個月, 東太平洋次表層的負距平區域明顯地縮小, 這情況在4月尤其劇烈. 從1月下旬開始, 東太平洋次表層的負距平區域已經有所縮小. 現時的東太平洋, 只有一小片水域維持著超過2度的負距平. 在西太平洋地區, 正距平的狀態和過去數月的情況大致相近, 同時該處的水溫, 在4月稍為下降, 並維持著超過3度的正距平.
sub_surf_mon.gif

Weekly sub-surface:
每周次表層海溫:
Over the past fortnight the volume of cooler-than-average water in the sub-surface of the eastern equatorial Pacific has continued to decrease in overall size, with warmer conditions now more evident. The map for the 5 days ending 22 April shows a small volume of water remains more than 2 °C cooler than usual. Shallow warm anomalies in the far eastern equatorial Pacific have now connected with warm sub-surface anomalies in the western Pacific.
在過去兩星期, 在東太平洋次表層、比正常為冷的水域, 整體來說是持續縮小的. 現在變暖的情況已經變得更明確. 直到4月22日為止的5天距平圖顯示, 仍有一小片比正常低2度的水域存在. 遠東太平洋的淺\層正距平區域, 已經和西太平洋的次表層區域連接起來.
sub_surf_tao.gif


Southern Oscillation Index:
南方濤動指數:
The Southern Oscillation Index (SOI) has continued to drop over the past fortnight, and has hovered around −7 to −8 over the last week. The latest (22 April) 30-day SOI value is −7.2. The SOI is at its lowest level since April 2010.
過去兩星期, 南方濤動指數(SOI)持續下跌. 同時, 在過去一星期, SOI在-7至-8的水平徘徊. 最新(4月22日)的的30天SOI數值為-7.2. 現在的SOI是在2010年4月以來的新低.
Sustained positive values of the SOI above +8 may indicate a La Niña event, while sustained negative values below −8 may indicate an El Niño event. Values of between about +8 and −8 generally indicate neutral conditions.
SOI持續在+8以上,可能意味著拉尼娜事件的發生;而SOI持續在-8以上,可能意味著厄爾尼諾事件的發生。SOI在+8和-8之間維持的話,通常表示情況為中性。
soi30.png


Trade winds:
信風:
Trade winds have strengthened over most of the tropical Pacific over the past two weeks. Easterly wind anomalies are again in place over the western tropical Pacific and the eastern tropical Pacific south of the equator, with trade winds in the central region and north of the equator in the east near normal (see wind anomaly map for the 5 days ending 8 April).
在過去兩星期, 大部分熱帶太平洋地區的信風增強了, 東風異常再次在熱帶西太平洋和赤道以南的東太平洋出現, 同時中太平洋和赤道以北的東太平洋的信風接近正常(詳見直到4月8日為止的5天距平圖).
During La Niña events, there is a sustained strengthening of the trade winds across much of the tropical Pacific, while during El Niño events there is a sustained weakening of the trade winds.
在拉尼娜事件下,赤道太平洋地區的大部分地區的信風會持續增強;而在厄爾尼諾事件下,信風會持續減弱。
sst_wind_anom_5day.large.gif


Cloudiness near the Date Line:
換日線附近的雲量:
Cloudiness near the dateline has declined from slightly enhanced to weakly suppressed over the past two weeks.
在過去兩星期,換日線附近的雲量減少, 從稍為偏多下跌至稍為偏少.
Cloudiness along the equator, near the Date Line, is an important indicator of ENSO conditions, as it typically increases (negative OLR anomalies) near and to the east of the Date Line during an El Niño event and decreases (positive OLR anomalies) during a La Niña event.
換日線附近的赤道地區雲量,是ENSO狀況的重要指標之一,因為在厄爾尼諾事件下,換日線附近和以東的雲量通常會增加(OLR負距平),而在拉尼娜事件下則會減少(OLR正距平)。
region.ts.dateline.gif


Climate Models:
氣候模式:
All outlooks from leading international climate models surveyed by the Bureau indicate neutral ENSO conditions are the most likely scenario for the remainder of autumn and early winter. Some models forecast neutral conditions to continue during winter into spring, while other models note a hightened likelihood of El Niño conditions emerging during this period.
本局參考了大部分國際領先的氣候模式,全部都預測中性的ENSO狀態, 會在餘下的(南半球的)秋季和初冬繼續維持. 部分模式預測中性狀態會持續至(南半球的)冬春兩季, 而其他的模式表示在這段時間, 出現厄爾尼諾狀態的可能性正逐漸增加.
poama.nino34.gif


Indian Ocean Dipole:
印度洋偶極子:
The Indian Ocean Dipole (IOD) typically has little influence in Australia between December and April. The IOD index is currently neutral, with a value of +0.3 for the week ending 22 April.
正常來說, 印度洋偶極子(IOD)對澳洲的夏季, 只有很少的影響. 現在的IOD指數處於中性的水平. 在直到4月22日的一周, IOD的數值為+0.3.
Recent forecasts from the POAMA model predict neutral IOD conditions for autumn and winter.
最近POAMA的預報模式預測, IOD在(南半球的)秋季和冬季維持中性狀態.
poama.iod.gif
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发表于 2012-5-10 15:42 | 显示全部楼层
Tropical Pacific ENSO-neutral, but warming slowly
热带太平洋ENSO中性,但变暖缓慢

Climate indicators across the tropical Pacific Ocean remain neutral (neither El Niño nor La Niña). During the past fortnight, the tropical Pacific Ocean reached its warmest state since May 2010. All major indicators of ENSO, including cloudiness, trade winds, the Southern Oscillation Index (SOI) and sea surface temperatures in the tropical Pacific, currently lie well within the ENSO-neutral range.
整个热带太平洋的气候指标保持中性(无论是厄尔尼诺还是拉尼娜现象)。在过去两周,热带太平洋到达2010年5月以来最暖和的状态。目前ENSO所有的主要指标,包括云量、信风、南方涛动指数(SOI)和热带太平洋海面温度,在ENSO的中性范围内。
Climate models surveyed by the Bureau of Meteorology indicate that the tropical Pacific Ocean may continue to warm over the next six months, with some, but not all, models approaching or exceeding El Niño thresholds during the second half of 2012. No models currently favour a return to La Niña.
由气象局的气候模型显示,热带太平洋在未来六个月可能继续变暖,2012年下半年期间,其中有一些但不是所有的模型接近或超过厄尔尼诺现象的阈值。目前没有模型显示有利于返回到拉尼娜现象。
Model outlooks suggest the Indian Ocean Dipole (IOD) will remain neutral during the coming months.
模型展望表明印度洋偶极子(IOD)值在未来几个月内将保持中性。
Monthly sea surface temperatures:
每月海面温度:
Sea surface temperature (SST) in the central and eastern equatorial Pacific Ocean continued to warm during April. The SST anomaly map for April shows SSTs were near normal across most of the tropical Pacific. While still present, the area of slightly cool anomalies north of the equator has decreased substantially when compared to the map for March. Warm anomalies in the far eastern Pacific, near the equator and along the South American coast, have increased in extent and strength over the past month, with a small area of ocean more than 2 °C warmer than usual.
赤道太平洋中部和东部海面温度(SST)在4月期间继续变暖。4月的海温距平图显示,整个热带太平洋大部分海温接近正常。赤道以北虽然仍然存在稍冷距平面积,但与三月的地图相比有较大幅度的下降。在遥远东太平洋,在赤道附近沿南美海岸的暖距平,范围和强度有所增加,在过去一个月,小范围面积的海洋温暖超过正常2°C。
            
ndexMarchAprilTemperature change
NINO30.10.30.2 °C warmer
NINO3.4−0.3−0.20.1 °C warmer
NINO4−0.4−0.10.3 °C warmer

      1.gif

Weekly sea surface temperatures:
每周的海面温度
The general distribution of warm and cool sea-surface temperature (SST) anomalies across the tropical Pacific Ocean remain similar to that of two weeks ago, although warm anomalies in the far eastern Pacific have decreased in both extent and intensity. Two of the three NINO indices monitored have warmed slightly over the past two weeks, with the third remaining unchanged; all three are within neutral values. The SST anomaly map for the week ending 6 May shows the sea-surface temperature across most of the equatorial Pacific is near average for this time of the year. However, there are warm anomalies in the far western and eastern Pacific as well as south of the equator, and an area of cool anomalies north of the equator in the central Pacific. Across most of their area, these anomalies are less than one degree above or below average.
整个热带太平洋海面温度(SST)暖和冷距平的一般分布仍类似于两个星期前,不过在远东太平洋暖距平的程度和强度都在下降。厄尔尼诺现象的三种监测指标中的两个有所回暖,并略高于过去两个星期,第三种维持不变;所有这三种指标都接近中性值。截至5月6日的一周海温距平图显示,横跨赤道太平洋海面温度接近每年这个时间的平均值。不过,也有在遥远的西部和东部地区以及赤道以南暖距平,在太平洋中部赤道以北小范围的冷距平。横跨他们的大部分地区,这些距平是高于或低于平均水平不到一度。
            
IndexPreviousCurrentTemperature change
(2 weeks)
NINO30.30.3no change
NINO3.4−0.20.10.3 °C warmer
NINO4−0.2−0.10.1 °C warmer

      2.gif

Monthly sub-surface:
月次表层海温:
   
The four-month sequence of sub-surface Pacific Ocean equatorial temperature anomalies to April shows a significant decay of cool anomalies in the sub-surface of the eastern Pacific over the past two months, most dramatically during April. Cool anomalies in the eastern Pacific sub-surface have been declining since late January. A moderately sized volume of water more than 1.5 °C cooler than average remains in the eastern Pacific. In the western Pacific warm anomalies remain generally similar to previous months, with water here slightly cooler during April, more than 3 °C warmer than average.
至四月份,赤道太平洋次表层的温度距平四个月序列显示过去两个月中最显著的是四月份,东太平洋的次表层冷距平显著衰减。 1月下旬以来,在东太平洋次表层冷距平一直下降。在东太平洋仍然有中等规模的水体冷于平均水平1.5°C。西太平洋暖距平仍普遍类似前几个月,在四月份的水稍凉,高于平均温度3°C。     
3.gif
Weekly sub-surface:
每周次表层海温:
   
Over the past fortnight the volume of cooler-than-average water in the sub-surface of the central and eastern equatorial Pacific has continued to decrease. Generally, water in the shallow sub-surface is slightly warmer than usual across the equatorial Pacific, and near average at depth. The map for the 5 days ending 6 May shows volumes of water more than 2 °C warmer than usual in both the western and far eastern equatorial Pacific.
在过去两周,赤道太平洋中部和东部次表层比正常冷的水域体积持续下降。一般来说,横跨赤道太平洋地区的浅次表层水比正略有回暖,深次表层水接近平均。截至5月6日5天的地图显示在西部和远东赤道太平洋的温暖水域超过正常2°C。     
4.gif
Southern Oscillation Index:
南方涛动指数:
The Southern Oscillation Index (SOI) has continued risen during the past week, after remaining around −7 during the preceding week. The latest (6 May) 30-day SOI value is +0.7.
在过去的一周,南方涛动指数(SOI)继续上升,前一周之后其余的大约是-7。最新(5月6日)30天的SOI值为+0.7。
Sustained positive values of the SOI above +8 may indicate a La Niña event, while sustained negative values below −8 may indicate an El Niño event. Values of between about +8 and −8 generally indicate neutral conditions.
SOI值持续+8以上可能预示拉尼娜事件,而持续低于-8可能预示厄尔尼诺事件, 在+8和-8之间的值通常表明为中性条件。
5.png
Trade winds:
信风:
Trade winds have weakened over most of the tropical Pacific during the past two weeks. Trade winds are generally near normal over the tropical Pacific (see wind anomaly map for the 5 days ending 6 May).
在过去两个星期,大部分热带太平洋地区的信风减弱了。热带太平洋信风一般都是接近正常以上(详见截止5月6日的5天风距平图)。
During La Niña events, there is a sustained strengthening of the trade winds across much of the tropical Pacific, while during El Niño events there is a sustained weakening of the trade winds.
在拉尼娜事件中,热带太平洋信风会持续加强,而在厄尔尼诺事件中,信风会持续的减弱。
6.gif
Cloudiness near the Date Line:
换日线附近的云量:
Cloudiness near the Date Line continues to fluctuate, increasing again over the past two weeks, but generally remaining close to average.
换日线附近云量仍然波动不定,在过去的两个星期,再次增加,但其余的一般接近平均。
Cloudiness along the equator, near the Date Line, is an important indicator of ENSO conditions, as it typically increases (negative OLR anomalies) near and to the east of the Date Line during an El Niño event and decreases (positive OLR anomalies) during a La Niña event.
换日线附近沿赤道的云量是ENSO条件的重要指标之一,因为厄尔尼诺事件期间换日线以东附近的云量通常增加(OLR负距平),拉尼娜事件期间下降(OLR正异常)。
7.gif
Climate Models:
气候模型:
All outlooks from leading international climate models surveyed by the Bureau indicate neutral ENSO conditions are the most likely scenario for the remainder of autumn. While most models note a heightened risk of El Niño conditions emerging during late winter or spring, other models forecast neutral conditions to continue during this period.
调查局参考了所有国际领先的气候模型展望,显示ENSO的中性条件维持到秋天的其余部分是最可能的情况。虽然大多数模型注意到厄尔尼诺现象在冬末或春季出现的情况有较高概率,其他模型预计中性条件在此期间继续。
8.png
Indian Ocean Dipole:
印度洋偶极子:
The IOD index is currently neutral, with a value of −0.3 for the week ending 6 May.
目前的IOD指数是中性,截至5月6日的一周内的值是-0.3。
Recent forecasts from the POAMA model predict neutral IOD conditions for the remainder of autumn and the following winter.
最近从POAMA模型预测IOD中性条件将在余下的秋季及之后的冬季维持。

9.png
帖子中涉及地图来源广泛,图中所涉及的行政区域以中国官方认定的为准。
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论坛版主-副热带高压

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发表于 2012-7-9 22:25 | 显示全部楼层
Tropical Pacific remains neutral; ocean warming slowly
热带太平洋保持中性;海洋温度缓慢变暖(2012.06.05)

Tropical Pacific climate indicators remain at neutral values for this time of the year. This includes the Southern Oscillation Index (SOI), trade winds, cloudiness, and sea surface temperatures. Ocean temperatures below the surface are currently warmer than average in the central and western Pacific on a monthly scale, with the eastern subsurface Pacific closer to normal, but slowly warming.
是年的这时,热带太平洋的气候指标保持为中性。这些指标包括南方涛动指数(SOI),信风,云量以及海温。在月尺度上,太平洋中部及西部的海洋温度虽低于海水表面温度,但仍高于平均值,而东太平洋的次表层海温也趋近正常,且仍在缓慢变暖。
Climate models surveyed by the Bureau of Meteorology show that the tropical Pacific Ocean is likely to warm further over the coming months. All seven models surveyed indicate conditions are likely to approach, or possibly exceed, El Niño thresholds during the late winter to early spring period. Large parts of eastern Australia are typically drier and warmer than normal in winter/spring as El Niño events develop. No climate models favour a return to La Niña.
气象局气候模型表明,热带太平洋在未来几个月或将缓慢变暖。全部7个模型均表明,目前的条件可能在冬末春初接近/超过厄尔尼诺现象的临界值。在厄尔尼诺现象发生时,澳大利亚东部的大部分地区在冬季/春季时将较为温暖干燥。没有任何模型支持拉尼娜现象将重新发生。
While the Indian Ocean Dipole (IOD) is currently considered neutral, the IOD index has been positive for the past three weeks. About half of the current POAMA outlooks show sustained positive levels in 2012.
虽然目前认为印度洋偶极子(IOD)为中性,但该指数在过去三个星期中却呈现出上升趋势。目前约有半数POAMA的展望显示,该指数在2012年将保持上升趋势。
Sea Surface Temperatures
海洋表面温度

Monthly sea surface temperatures:
每月海洋表面温度:

After warming during April, sea surface temperatures (SSTs) in the central and eastern equatorial Pacific Ocean cooled slightly during May. The SST anomaly map for May shows SSTs remain near normal across most of the tropical Pacific, although the area of weak cool anomalies north of the equator has increased marginally in size. Warm anomalies in the far eastern Pacific have decreased in size during May, with water along the coast of South America more than 2 °C warmer than usual. In the west, warm anomalies north of the Maritime Continent have strengthened, with the warmest water east of the Philippines.
五月,赤道太平洋东部和中部的海水表面温度(SSTs)继四月回升之后略有下降。五月的海温距平图显示,虽然赤道以北的热带太平洋出现负距平的区域略有增加,但大部分地区的海水表面温度依然接近正常。热带太平洋远东地区正距平幅度有所回落,而南美洲海岸依旧出现了超过2℃的负距平。在北半球西侧,包括菲律宾东部暖池在内的海底大陆的海温正距平幅度有也所上升。
1.gif
Weekly sea surface temperatures:
每周海洋表面温度:

The distribution of warm and cool sea-surface temperature (SST) anomalies across the tropical Pacific Ocean generally remains similar to that of two weeks ago. Warm anomalies along the equator in the eastern Pacific continue to develop; the SST anomaly map for the week ending 3 June shows warm anomalies adjacent to the South American coast, extending along the equator between South America and about 130°W, and south of the equator in the central Pacific as well as around parts of the Maritime Continent. An area of weak cool anomalies remain north of the equator in the central Pacific, while tropical SSTs between about 150°W and the Maritime Continent are average for this time of the year.
整个热带太平洋的海水表层温度(SST)正负距平幅度依旧与两星期前相类似。赤道以东的太平洋正距平幅度继续增加,截至6月3日的每周海温距平图显示,发源与南美洲海岸附近的正距平区沿着赤道延伸到130°W左右,而赤道中太平洋南部海底大陆的周边地区同样也出现了正距平。而赤道中太平洋以北海区则依然保持微弱的负距平。而从海底大陆到150°W之间的海水表面温度与常年平均水平持平。
2.gif
Pacific ocean sub-surface temperatures
太平洋次表层海温

Monthly sub-surface:
每月次表层海温:

The four-month sequence of sub-surface Pacific Ocean equatorial temperature anomalies to May shows an absence of cool anomalies in the sub-surface of the eastern Pacific and a decrease in the strength of warm anomalies in the western Pacific. Water between about 160°E and the Date Line is more than 3 °C warmer than average.
截至五月的四个月太平洋次表层海温异常图表明,东太平洋的次表层海温负距平区域面积继续缩小,而西太平洋的正距平幅度也有所缓和。而从160°E附近到国际日期变更线之间的海区则出现了超过3°C的正距平。
3.gif
Weekly sub-surface:
每周次表层海温:

The pattern of subsurface temperature anomalies remains generally similar to that from two weeks ago. The map for the 5 days ending 3 June shows subsurface warm anomalies across the entire equatorial Pacific; volumes of water more than 2 °C warmer than usual are present in both the western and eastern equatorial Pacific, with the anomalies being somewhat deeper in the west.
次表层海温异常模式与两周前大致相同,截至6月3日的5天距平图显示,整个赤道太平洋的次表层水温均出现了正距平,目前赤道太平洋东部和西部的次表层水温都出现了超过2°C的正距平。位于赤道太平洋西部的正距平区深度深于东部。
4.gif
Southern Oscillation Index:
南方涛动指数:

Values of the Southern Oscillation Index (SOI) have remained on the negative side of neutral over the past two weeks. The latest (3 June) 30-day SOI value is −0.7.
在过去两周中,南方涛动指数(SOI)值一直保持为中性偏低。最新(至6月3日)的30天SOI值为-0.7。
Sustained positive values of the SOI above +8 may indicate a La Niña event, while sustained negative values below −8 may indicate an El Niño event. Values of between about +8 and −8 generally indicate neutral conditions.
SOI持续在+8以上,可能意味着拉尼娜事件的发生;而SOI持续在-8以上,可能意味着厄尔尼诺事件的发生。 SOI在+8和-8之间维持的话,通常表示情况为中性。
5.png
Trade winds:
信风:

Trade winds have strengthened during the past fortnight and easterly anomalies cover the tropical Pacific west of 140°W. Weak westerly wind anomalies have also emerged north of the equator in the eastern Pacific (see wind anomaly map for the 5 days ending 3 June).
在过去两周中,东风异常扩大从热带太平洋西部扩大至140°W。而赤道以北的热带东太平洋则出现了微弱的西风异常(见截至6月3日的5天风力距平图)。
During La Niña events, there is a sustained strengthening of the trade winds across much of the tropical Pacific, while during El Niño events there is a sustained weakening of the trade winds.
在拉尼娜事件发生时,赤道太平洋地区的大部分地区的信风会持续增强;而在厄尔尼诺事件发生时,信风会持续减弱。
6.gif
Cloudiness near the dateline:
换日线附近云量:

Cloudiness near the Date Line continues to fluctuate, but has remained suppressed over the past two weeks.
在过去两周,国际日期变更线附近的云量有所波动,但仍处于负距平。
Cloudiness along the equator, near the Date Line, is an important indicator of ENSO conditions, as it typically increases (negative OLR anomalies) near and to the east of the Date Line during an El Niño event and decreases (positive OLR anomalies) during a La Niña event.
换日线附近赤道地区云量是ENSO重要指标之一,在厄尔尼诺现象发生时,换日线附近及以东的云量通常会增加(OLR负距平),而在拉尼娜事件下则会减少(OLR正距平)。
7.gif
Climate Models:
气候模式:

The majority of international climate models surveyed by the Bureau predict that the equatorial Pacific Ocean is likely to reach El Niño thresholds before or during the first half of spring. A few climate models still indicate that conditions on the warm side of neutral are the more likely outcome for spring.
本局参考的大部分国际领先的气候模式均表明,赤道太平洋可能将在春初出现厄尔尼诺现象。只有少数几种气候模式认为赤道太平洋春季可能表现为中性偏暖。
8.png
Indian Ocean Dipole:
印度洋偶极子:

Values of the IOD index have been within positive territory for three weeks. If the current SST pattern in the Indian Ocean is sustained or enhanced, a positive IOD event will be considered to be established. The latest IOD index value is +0.8 for the week ending 3 June.
最近三周的IOD指数已转为正距平,如果当前印度洋的海温继续保持或升高,IOD便有可能转为正相位。截至6月3日一周内的IOD指数为+0.8。
Recent forecasts from the POAMA model show a degree of spread around positive threshold values, indicating the possibility of a weak positive IOD event during winter and spring. Late autumn to early winter is typically the time when IOD events may begin to have an impact upon Australia.
最近POAMA模型预测指出,IOD指数在目前有所提高,并可能在冬季和春季继续保持微弱的正距平。通常IOD从秋末冬初起便会对澳大利亚造成一定影响。
9.png
层主吃了一斤小苹果 感觉自己萌~萌~哒~ (*/ω\*)
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发表于 2012-7-10 20:52 | 显示全部楼层
Increasing risk of El Niño in 2012
2012年厄尔尼诺的危险加大
Issued on Tuesday 3 July | Product Code IDCKGEWWOO
7月3日星期二


Climate indicators continue to show a shift towards El Niño, in line with most model predictions. Eastern and central tropical Pacific Ocean temperatures have continued to warm over the past fortnight, while trade winds have remained weaker than normal. Likewise, the Southern Oscillation Index (SOI) has become more strongly negative over the past month.
大多数模型的预测继续显示,气候指标朝着厄尔尼诺现象转变。在过去两周,东部和中部热带太平洋温度持续升温,而信风仍然较正常弱。同样,在过去的一个月,南方涛动指数(SOI)已变成更加强烈的负相位。

Tropical Pacific Ocean observations are consistent with previous and current climate model forecasts, which have indicated that the tropical Pacific may approach or exceed El Niño thresholds sometime between mid-winter and spring 2012.
热带太平洋海洋观测数据与以前和目前的气候模型预测一致,这显示,热带太平洋地区2012年春季和冬季中期之间的某一时段可能接近或超过厄尔尼诺阈值。

During El Niño events, large parts of eastern Australia are typically drier than normal during winter and spring, while southern Australian daytime temperatures tend to be warmer. However, El Niño does not guarantee widespread dry conditions.
厄尔尼诺事件期间,澳大利亚东部大部分地区冬季和春季期间通常较正常干旱,而澳大利亚南部白天气温往往较暖。但是,厄尔尼诺现象并不能保证普遍的干燥条件。

The Indian Ocean Dipole (IOD) is currently neutral. About half of the outlooks from POAMA, the Bureau’s climate model, indicate the possibility of a weak positive IOD event developing during winter or spring. Should a positive IOD event eventuate with an El Niño event, this increases the likelihood of dry conditions over southern Australia.
印度洋偶极子(IOD)值目前是中性。气象局运用澳大利亚大气海洋耦合预报模式的气候模型展望,约有一半表示IOD事件在冬季或春季发展弱正的可能性。应该有积极的偶极子事件与厄尔尼诺事件发生,这增加了澳大利亚南部上空干燥条件的可能性。

Monthly sea surface temperatures:
月海表温度:
Sea surface temperatures (SSTs) in the central and eastern equatorial Pacific Ocean warmed during June. Water in the far eastern equatorial Pacific is more than 1 °C warmer than usual. The SST anomaly map for June shows SSTs remain near average across the western half of the tropical Pacific, and the area of weak cool anomalies north of the equator also remains similar to the previous month. Warm anomalies in the far western Pacific north of the Maritime Continent have also decreased.
赤道太平洋中部和东部海表温度(SSTs)在6月期间变暖。在赤道太平洋远东的水温较正常暖1°C。 6月的海温距平图显示,热带太平洋西半部表层海水温度保持接近平均,赤道以北的冷距平区也保持与上月相似。在遥远北太平洋西部的大陆沿海暖距平也是如此。
[tr][td]
IndexMayJuneTemperature change
NINO3+0.3+0.80.4 °C warmer
NINO3.4 0.0+0.40.4 °C warmer
NINO4−0.1+0.10.2 °C warmer



sst_monthly.gif      

Weekly sea surface temperatures:
每周海表温度:

Warm sea-surface temperature (SST) anomalies in the eastern tropical Pacific have increased when compared to two weeks ago. The SST anomaly map for the week ending 1 July shows warm anomalies extend along the equator in a broad band between the South American coast and about 160°W. Tropical SSTs in the western Pacific are near average for this time of the year.
在热带东太平洋海表温度(SST)暖距平与两周前相比有所增加。截至7月1日,该周内的海温距平图显示了南美沿岸和约160°W之间沿赤道延伸的暖距平条带,西太平洋热带海表温度接近每年这个时间的平均。
            
[tr][td]
IndexPreviousCurrentTemperature change
(2 weeks)
NINO3+0.7+1.00.3 °C warmer
NINO3.4+0.4+0.70.3 °C warmer
NINO4+0.1+0.20.1 °C warmer

      sst_weekly.gif2.gif

Monthly sub-surface:
月次表层:
   
The four-month sequence (to the end of June) of sub-surface temperature anomalies in the equatorial Pacific Ocean shows the development of warm anomalies in the sub-surface of the eastern Pacific and a decrease in the strength of warm anomalies in the western Pacific. Warm anomalies are currently in place across the sub-surface of the entire Pacific; water in areas of the sub-surface in both the eastern and western Pacific is 2 to 3 °C warmer than average.
赤道太平洋次表层四个月序列(到六月底)的温度距平显示,在太平洋东部次表层暖距平有所发展,太平洋西部暖距平强度有所下降。暖距平目前跨越整个太平洋次表层,在东部和西太平洋次表层区域的水温高于平均水平2至3℃。     
sub_surf_mon.gif
Weekly sub-surface:
周次表层:
   
The pattern of sub-surface temperature anomalies remains generally similar to that from two weeks ago. The map for the 5 days ending 1 July shows subsurface warm anomalies across the entire equatorial Pacific; a small volume of water more than4 °C warmer than usual is present in the shallow sub-surface of the eastern equatorial Pacific, while weaker warm anomalies are present deeper in the west.
次表层温度距平的格局仍然与两周前大致相同。截至7月1日为期5天的地图显示,暖距平跨越赤道太平洋次表层,目前在赤道东太平洋次表层浅层较正常暖4°C的水容量较小,而在西部更深层的暖距平目前较弱。     
sub_surf_tao.gif2.gif
Southern Oscillation Index:
南方涛动指数:

The Southern Oscillation Index (SOI) has continued to fall steadily over the past two weeks. The latest (1 July) 30-day SOI value is −11.8, within values indicative of an El Niño.
南方涛动指数(SOI)比过去两周有了持续不断地下降。最新(7月1日)30天的SOI值是-11.8,在厄尔尼诺的指标值范围内。

Sustained positive values of the SOI above +8 may indicate a La Niña event, while sustained negative values below −8 may indicate an El Niño event. Values of between about +8 and −8 generally indicate neutral conditions.
持续积极的SOI值高于+8可能表明拉尼娜事件,而持续低于-8值可能预示厄尔尼诺事件。 +8和-8之间的值通常表明中性条件。

soi30.png

Trade winds:
信风:
Trade winds are generally near average over the central and eastern tropical Pacific (see wind anomaly map for the 5 days ending 1 July). Westerly wind anomalies have been evident in the far western tropical Pacific for a number of weeks, and in fact, during the past two weeks the usual easterly trade winds have been replaced by westerly winds in this area.
中部和东部热带太平洋的信风普遍接近平均(见截至7月1日为5天的风距平图)。热带太平洋远西部的西风距平已经明显的持续了数周,事实上,在过去两周中,在这一领域中通常的偏东信风已由西风取代。
During La Niña events, there is a sustained strengthening of the trade winds across much of the tropical Pacific, while during El Niño events there is a sustained weakening of the trade winds.
在拉尼娜事件中,跨越热带太平洋大部份的信风持续加强,而在厄尔尼诺事件中的信风持续减弱。
sst_wind_anom_5day.large.gif

Cloudiness near the Date Line:
换日线附近的云量:

Cloudiness near the Date Line continues to fluctuate, but generally remained suppressed throughout the month of June.
换日线附近的云量继续波动,但6月份总体云量受到压抑。

Cloudiness along the equator, near the dateline, is an important indicator of ENSO conditions, as it typically increases (negative OLR anomalies) near and to the east of the Date Line during an El Niño event and decreases (positive OLR anomalies) during a La Niña event.
换日线附近沿赤道的云量,是ENSO条件的重要指标,因为厄尔尼诺事件期间换日线以东和附近的云量通常增加(OLR负距平),而拉尼娜事件期间(OLR正距平)减少。
region.ts.dateline.gif
Climate Models:
气候模型:

All of the international climate models surveyed by the Bureau, except one, predict that the equatorial Pacific Ocean is likely to reach El Niño thresholds sometime between mid-winter and spring 2012. Some models still show a large spread in their forecasts, indicating uncertainty in the extent of warming expected in the tropical Pacific during coming months.
调查局所有的国际气候模型,除了一个,表明赤道太平洋很可能在2012年春季和冬季中期之间的某个时候达到厄尔尼诺现象的阈值。有些模型在他们的预测仍显示大的扩散,说明预计热带太平洋的气候变暖程度,在未来几个月存在不确定性。
poama.nino34.small.png
Indian Ocean Dipole:
印度洋偶极子:

Values of the IOD index have remained neutral over the past two weeks. The latest IOD index value is +0.14 for the week ending 1 July.
过去两周的IOD指数值保持中性。截至7月1日的一周内,最新的IOD指数值为+0.14。

Recent forecasts from the POAMA model continue to show a degree of spread around positive threshold values, indicating some possibility of a weak positive IOD event remains for winter and spring.
最新的POAMA的模型预测继续显示扩散程度围绕正阈值,这表明冬季和春季仍然可能为一些弱阳性的IOD事件。
poama.iod.small.png2.png
帖子中涉及地图来源广泛,图中所涉及的行政区域以中国官方认定的为准。
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发表于 2012-7-28 21:43 | 显示全部楼层
Increasing risk of El Niño in 2012
2012年发生厄尔尼诺现象的概率增加(2012.07.03)

Tropical Pacific Ocean observations are consistent with previous and current climate model forecasts, which have indicated that the tropical Pacific may approach or exceed El Niño thresholds sometime between mid-winter and spring 2012.
热带太平洋的观测结果与以往及目前的气候模型预测结果相符合,这表明热带太平洋可能于2012年的冬季中期及春季接近或超过发生厄尔尼诺现象的指标。
During El Niño events, large parts of eastern Australia are typically drier than normal during winter and spring, while southern Australian daytime temperatures tend to be warmer. However, El Niño does not guarantee widespread dry conditions.
在厄尔尼诺现象发生时,澳大利亚东部大部分地区在冬季和春季通常较为干旱少雨,而澳大利亚南部地区日间的气温夜往往较为温暖。但厄尔尼诺现象的发生并不代表将普遍出现干燥。
The Indian Ocean Dipole (IOD) is currently neutral. About half of the outlooks from POAMA, the Bureau’s climate model, indicate the possibility of a weak positive IOD event developing during winter or spring. Should a positive IOD event eventuate with an El Niño event, this increases the likelihood of dry conditions over southern Australia.
印度洋偶极子(IOD)指数目前处于中性。在POAMA的气候模型中约有半数认为IOD指数可能将在冬季或春季转为正位相。当厄尔尼诺事件发生时印度洋偶极子通常将处于正位相,将增加澳大利亚南部发生干旱的可能。
Sea Surface Temperatures
海洋表面温度

Monthly sea surface temperatures:
每月海洋表面温度:

Sea surface temperatures (SSTs) in the central and eastern equatorial Pacific Ocean warmed during June. Water in the far eastern equatorial Pacific is more than 1 °C warmer than usual. The SST anomaly map for June shows SSTs remain near average across the western half of the tropical Pacific, and the area of weak cool anomalies north of the equator also remains similar to the previous month. Warm anomalies in the far western Pacific north of the Maritime Continent have also decreased.
整个6月赤道太平洋中部和东部海水表面温度(SSTs)继续回暖。赤道太平洋远东地区出现了超过1°C的正距平。 6月海温距平图显示,热带太平洋西部海温正距平平均幅度约为热带太平洋西部的一半,而位于赤道以北的负距平状况大体类似于上月。而西太平洋北部沿岸地区的海温正距平幅度也有所下降。
IndexMayJuneTemperature change
NINO3+0.3+0.80.4 °C warmer
NINO3.4 0.0+0.40.4 °C warmer
NINO4−0.1+0.10.2 °C warmer

1.gif
Weekly sea surface temperatures:
每周海洋表面温度:

Warm sea-surface temperature (SST) anomalies in the eastern tropical Pacific have increased when compared to two weeks ago. The SST anomaly map for the week ending 1 July shows warm anomalies extend along the equator in a broad band between the South American coast and about 160°W. Tropical SSTs in the western Pacific are near average for this time of the year.
热带太平洋东部海水表面温度(SST)正距平区相比两周前大幅度增加。截至7月1日的每周海温距平图显示,正距平区沿南美洲大陆沿岸一直延伸到160°W附近。热带西太平洋的海温接近常年同期的平均水平。
IndexPreviousCurrentTemperature change  
(2 weeks)
NINO3+0.7+1.00.3 °C warmer
NINO3.4+0.4+0.70.3 °C warmer
NINO4+0.1+0.20.1 °C warmer

2.gif
Pacific ocean sub-surface temperatures
太平洋次表层海温

Monthly sub-surface:
每月次表层海温:

The four-month sequence (to the end of June) of sub-surface temperature anomalies in the equatorial Pacific Ocean shows the development of warm anomalies in the sub-surface of the eastern Pacific and a decrease in the strength of warm anomalies in the western Pacific. Warm anomalies are currently in place across the sub-surface of the entire Pacific; water in areas of the sub-surface in both the eastern and western Pacific is 2 to 3 °C warmer than average.
截至6月底的四个月赤道太平洋次表层海温距平图显示,赤道太平洋东部的暖距平幅度有所增加,而赤道太平洋西部的暖距平程度则与之相反。整个太平洋的次表层海温均出现了暖距平,太平洋东部和西部的暖距平幅度更是达到了2-3°C。
3.gif
Weekly sub-surface:
每周次表层海温:

The pattern of sub-surface temperature anomalies remains generally similar to that from two weeks ago. The map for the 5 days ending 1 July shows subsurface warm anomalies across the entire equatorial Pacific; a small volume of water more than 4 °C warmer than usual is present in the shallow sub-surface of the eastern equatorial Pacific, while weaker warm anomalies are present deeper in the west.
次表层海温距平格局依旧与2周前相类似。截至7月1日的5天次表层海温距平图显示,整个赤道太平洋次表层海温均出现了暖距平;赤道太平洋东部浅层小范围内次表层海温还出现了超过4℃的正距平,而赤道太平洋西部较深层的海温也出现了较弱的暖距平。
4.gif
Southern Oscillation Index:
南方涛动指数:

The Southern Oscillation Index (SOI) has continued to fall steadily over the past two weeks. The latest (1 July) 30-day SOI value is −11.8, within values indicative of an El Niño.
南方涛动指数(SOI)在过去两周内继续稳步下降。最新30天(截至7月1日)的(SOI)值为-11.8,已低于发生厄尔尼诺事件的指标。
Sustained positive values of the SOI above +8 may indicate a La Niña event, while sustained negative values below −8 may indicate an El Niño event. Values of between about +8 and −8 generally indicate neutral conditions.
SOI持续在+8以上,可能意味着拉尼娜事件的发生;而SOI持续在-8以上,可能意味着厄尔尼诺事件的发生。 SOI在+8和-8之间维持的话,通常表示情况为中性。
5.png
Trade winds:
信风:

Trade winds are generally near average over the central and eastern tropical Pacific (see wind anomaly map for the 5 days ending 1 July). Westerly wind anomalies have been evident in the far western tropical Pacific for a number of weeks, and in fact, during the past two weeks the usual easterly trade winds have been replaced by westerly winds in this area.
热带太平洋中部及东部的信风接近平均水平(见截至7月1日的5天风力异常图)。虽然在过去几周内热带太平洋远西地区的西风异常十分明显,但在过去两周内偏东信风事实上已取代了这一地区的西风。
During La Niña events, there is a sustained strengthening of the trade winds across much of the tropical Pacific, while during El Niño events there is a sustained weakening of the trade winds.
在拉尼娜事件发生时,赤道太平洋地区的大部分地区的信风会持续增强;而在厄尔尼诺事件发生时,信风会持续减弱。
6.gif
Cloudiness near the dateline:
换日线附近云量:

Cloudiness near the Date Line continues to fluctuate, but generally remained suppressed throughout the month of June.
换日线附近云量依旧波动不定,但总体依旧保持着6月份受到压制的趋势。
Cloudiness along the equator, near the dateline, is an important indicator of ENSO conditions, as it typically increases (negative OLR anomalies) near and to the east of the Date Line during an El Niño event and decreases (positive OLR anomalies) during a La Niña event.  
换日线附近赤道地区云量是ENSO重要指标之一,在厄尔尼诺现象发生时,换日线附近及以东的云量通常会增加(OLR负距平),而在拉尼娜事件下则会减少(OLR正距平)。
7.gif
Climate Models:
气候模式:

All of the international climate models surveyed by the Bureau, except one, predict that the equatorial Pacific Ocean is likely to reach El Niño thresholds sometime between mid-winter and spring 2012. Some models still show a large spread in their forecasts, indicating uncertainty in the extent of warming expected in the tropical Pacific during coming months.
在本局的所有国际气候模型中除一个以外均预测赤道太平洋可能将在2012春季到仲冬之间的某个时刻达到厄尔尼诺时间的指标。部分模型之间的差距依旧很大,这表明了在未来几个月内热带太平洋变暖的程度仍不确定。
8.png
Indian Ocean Dipole:
印度洋偶极子:

Values of the IOD index have remained neutral over the past two weeks. The latest IOD index value is +0.14 for the week ending 1 July.
在过去两周内IOD指数依然保持中性,截至7月1日的最新1周IOD指数为+0.14。
Recent forecasts from the POAMA model continue to show a degree of spread around positive threshold values, indicating some possibility of a weak positive IOD event remains for winter and spring.
最近POAMA模型预测继续认为该指数将在中性条件下上下波动,这表明IOD指数在冬季及春季依旧可能转为正位相。
9.png
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发表于 2012-7-28 21:50 | 显示全部楼层
Tropical Pacific remains close to El Niño thresholds
热带太平洋依旧接近厄尔尼诺现象的指标

The past fortnight has seen climate indicators ease slightly, with all showing values near the threshold for an El Niño event. While indicators such as the Southern Oscillation Index (SOI), sea surface temperatures and trade winds have eased over the past two weeks, such short-term fluctuations are common and to be expected, and indicators still clearly remain near El Niño thresholds.
在过去两周内,所有与发生厄尔尼诺事件有关的指标均有所缓和。虽然在过去两周中包括南方涛动指数(SOI),海水表面温度及信风在内的指标有所缓和,但是这种短期波动是常见并可以预期的,这些指标依旧稳步接近发生厄尔尼诺事件的指标。
Over the last few months, observations have been trending toward El Niño. This is consistent with most model forecasts indicating that the tropical Pacific may approach or exceed El Niño thresholds sometime during the late southern winter or spring 2012. Some models indicate only borderline El Niño conditions may occur, but none suggest a return of La Niña.
在过去几个月中,发生厄尔尼诺现象的趋势日益显著。大多数气候模型均表明,热带太平洋指标可能在南半球2012年春季或冬末接近或超过厄尔尼诺现象指标。部分模型显示只可能发生轻微的厄尔尼诺现象,但没有任何模型认为拉尼娜现象将再度回归。
During El Niño events, large parts of eastern Australia are typically drier than normal during winter and spring, while southern Australian daytime temperatures tend to be warmer. However, El Niño does not guarantee widespread dry conditions.
在发生厄尔尼诺现象之时,澳大利亚东部大部分地区在冬季和春季将干旱少雨,而澳大利亚南部日间气温通常较为温暖,但是厄尔尼诺现象的发生并不代表必将发生干旱。
The Indian Ocean Dipole (IOD) is currently neutral. Outlooks from POAMA, the Bureau’s climate model, indicates neutral IOD conditions for the remainder of winter and spring.
印度洋偶极子(IOD)指数目前处于中性,POAMA气候模型显示,本局所有气候模型均表示IOD指数将在冬季和春季余下时间里保持中性。
Sea Surface Temperatures
海洋表面温度

Monthly sea surface temperatures:
每月海洋表面温度:

Sea surface temperatures (SSTs) in the central and eastern equatorial Pacific Ocean warmed during June. Water in the far eastern equatorial Pacific is more than 1 °C warmer than usual. The SST anomaly map for June shows SSTs remain near average across the western half of the tropical Pacific, and the area of weak cool anomalies north of the equator also remains similar to the previous month. Warm anomalies in the far western Pacific north of the Maritime Continent have also decreased.
整个6月赤道太平洋中部和东部海水表面温度(SSTs)继续回暖。赤道太平洋远东地区出现了超过1°C的正距平。 6月海温距平图显示,热带太平洋西部海温正距平平均幅度约为热带太平洋西部的一半,而位于赤道以北的负距平状况大体类似于上月。而西太平洋北部沿岸地区的海温正距平幅度也有所下降。
IndexMayJuneTemperature change
NINO3+0.3+0.80.4 °C warmer
NINO3.4 0.0+0.40.4 °C warmer
NINO4−0.1+0.10.2 °C warmer

11.gif
Weekly sea surface temperatures:
每周海洋表面温度:

Warm sea-surface temperature (SST) anomalies in the central tropical Pacific have decreased when compared to two weeks ago, while those in the eastern tropical Pacific remain relatively unchanged. The SST anomaly map for the week ending 15 July shows warm anomalies extend along the equator east of about 150°W. Tropical SSTs in the western half of the Pacific are near average for this time of the year.
热带太平洋中部海水表面温度暖距平幅度与两周前相比有所下降,而在热带太平洋东部的正距平区则保持不变。截至7月15日的每周海温距平图显示,正距平区由赤道东部一直延伸到150°W附近,而此时热带太平洋西部的海温则接近同期的正常水平。
IndexPreviousCurrentTemperature change
(2 weeks)
NINO3+1.0+1.0no change
NINO3.4+0.7+0.50.2 °C cooler
NINO4+0.2+0.2no change

12.gif
Pacific ocean sub-surface temperatures
太平洋次表层海温

Monthly sub-surface:
每月次表层海温:

The four-month sequence (to the end of June) of sub-surface temperature anomalies in the equatorial Pacific Ocean shows the development of warm anomalies in the sub-surface of the eastern Pacific and a decrease in the strength of warm anomalies in the western Pacific. Warm anomalies are currently in place across the sub-surface of the entire Pacific; water in areas of the sub-surface in both the eastern and western Pacific is 2 to 3 °C warmer than average.         
截至6月底的四个月赤道太平洋次表层海温距平图显示,赤道太平洋东部的暖距平幅度有所增加,而赤道太平洋西部的暖距平程度则与之相反。整个太平洋的次表层海温均出现了暖距平,太平洋东部和西部的暖距平幅度更是达到了2-3°C。
13.gif
Weekly sub-surface:
每周次表层海温:

When compared with two weeks ago, sub-surface temperature anomalies have cooled, although the sub-surface of the entire equatorial Pacific remains slightly warmer than aveage. The map for the 5 days ending 15 July shows sub-surface warm anomalies more than 3 °C warmer than usual in the far eastern equatorial Pacific, while the rest of the equatorial Pacific sub-surface is around 1 °C warmer than average.
赤道太平洋次表层海温虽然总体依旧处于暖距平,但与两周前相比却略有下降。截至7月15日的5天次表层海温距平图显示,赤道太平洋东部依旧出现了超过3°C的暖距平,而赤道太平洋的其他地区暖距平的幅度则为在1°C左右。
14.gif
Southern Oscillation Index:
南方涛动指数:

The Southern Oscillation Index (SOI) has risen over the past two weeks, and has been hovering near at, or just shy of, threshold El Niño values for most of the last week. The latest (15 July) 30-day SOI value is −6.3.
在过去两周内,南方涛动指数(SOI)有所上升,并像害羞似的在发生厄尔尼诺现象的指标附近上下徘徊。SOI值在上周的大多数时间内均保持在厄尔尼诺现象指标之下。最新30天(截至7月15日)的SOI值为-6.3。
Sustained positive values of the SOI above +8 may indicate a La Niña event, while sustained negative values below −8 may indicate an El Niño event. Values of between about +8 and −8 generally indicate neutral conditions.
SOI持续在+8以上,可能意味着拉尼娜事件的发生;而SOI持续在-8以上,可能意味着厄尔尼诺事件的发生。 SOI在+8和-8之间维持的话,通常表示情况为中性。
15.png
Trade winds:
信风:

Trade winds have generally remained near average over the tropical Pacific (see wind anomaly map for the 5 days ending 15 July). Westerly wind anomalies are no longer evident in the far western tropical Pacific.
目前热带太平洋的信风保持在平均水平附近(见截至7月15日的5天风力异常图)。热带太平洋西部的西风一场也不再明显。
During La Niña events, there is a sustained strengthening of the trade winds across much of the tropical Pacific, while during El Niño events there is a sustained weakening of the trade winds.
在拉尼娜事件发生时,赤道太平洋地区的大部分地区的信风会持续增强;而在厄尔尼诺事件发生时,信风会持续减弱。
16.gif
Cloudiness near the dateline:
换日线附近云量:

Cloudiness near the Date Line has continued to fluctuate, returning to suppressed values in mid-July after being enhanced in late June and early July.
换日线附近的云量继续波动,并在6月下旬到7月初受到抑制之后在7月中旬继续加强。
Cloudiness along the equator, near the dateline, is an important indicator of ENSO conditions, as it typically increases (negative OLR anomalies) near and to the east of the Date Line during an El Niño event and decreases (positive OLR anomalies) during a La Niña event.
换日线附近赤道地区云量是ENSO重要指标之一,在厄尔尼诺现象发生时,换日线附近及以东的云量通常会增加(OLR负距平),而在拉尼娜事件下则会减少(OLR正距平)。
17.gif
Climate Models:
气候模式:

Most international climate models surveyed by the Bureau, predict that the equatorial Pacific Ocean is likely to reach El Niño thresholds sometime between late winter and spring 2012. However, many of the surveyed models continue to indicate that there is a strong possibility that the event will remain marginal (i.e. on the boundary between warm-neutral and weak El Niño conditions), and not develop further by the end of the year.
本局的所有国际气候模型均预测,赤道太平洋的指标可能在2012年春季到晚冬接近发生厄尔尼诺现象的条件。但有许多气候模型依旧表明,今年年底这些指标很可能不会进一步发展,而是保持在发生厄尔尼诺现象的条件上(即中性条件偏厄尔尼诺和厄尔尼诺现象偏中性)。
18.png
Indian Ocean Dipole:
印度洋偶极子:

The IOD has been neutral for a number of weeks. The latest IOD index value is +0.18 for the week ending 15 July.
在过去几周内IOD指数依然保持着中性,截至7月15日的最新1周IOD指数为+0.18。
Recent forecasts from the POAMA model indicate the IOD will remain neutral for late winter and into the following spring.
最近POAMA模型表明,IOD指数将在今年晚冬到明年早春时保持中性。
19.png
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发表于 2012-8-9 13:30 | 显示全部楼层
Pacific remains close to El Niño thresholds
太平洋依旧接近厄尔尼诺现象的指标(2012.07.31)

Most climate indicators in the tropical Pacific Ocean remain at values near the threshold of an El Niño event. Although indicators such as the Southern Oscillation Index (SOI) and trade winds are less El Niño-like than they were a month ago, ocean surface temperatures continue to show a pattern, and in some places values, typical of the development stage of an El Niño. Climate models suggest weak El Niño conditions are likely to be reached some time in late winter or spring. No climate models suggest a return to La Niña conditions.
热带太平洋多数气候指标仍保持在厄尔尼诺现象指标附近,虽然包括如南方涛动指数(SOI)和信风等有关厄尔尼诺现象的指标仍旧接近上月水平,而海水表面温度则继续接近发生厄尔尼诺现象的指标,而部分地方甚至已经满足了发生厄尔尼诺现象的指标。所有气候模型均显示在冬末或春季可能发生弱厄尔尼诺现象,没有气候模型认为拉尼娜现象将再度回归。
During El Niño events, large parts of eastern Australia are typically drier than normal during winter and spring, while southern Australian daytime temperatures tend to be warmer. However, El Niño does not guarantee widespread dry conditions.
在发生厄尔尼诺现象之时,澳大利亚东部大部分地区在冬季和春季将干旱少雨,而澳大利亚南部日间气温通常较为温暖,但是厄尔尼诺现象的发生并不代表必将发生干旱。
The Indian Ocean Dipole (IOD) is currently neutral. Outlooks from the Bureau’s climate model indicate neutral to weak positive IOD conditions are likely through winter and spring.
印度洋偶极子(IOD)指数目前处于中性,本局所有气候模型均显示,IOD指数将在冬季和春季内呈现出中性至弱正位相。
Sea Surface Temperatures
海洋表面温度

Monthly sea surface temperatures:
每月海洋表面温度:

Sea surface temperatures (SSTs) in the central and eastern equatorial Pacific Ocean warmed during June. Water in the far eastern equatorial Pacific is more than 1 °C warmer than usual. The SST anomaly map for June shows SSTs remain near average across the western half of the tropical Pacific, and the area of weak cool anomalies north of the equator also remains similar to the previous month. Warm anomalies in the far western Pacific north of the Maritime Continent have also decreased.
整个6月赤道太平洋中部和东部海水表面温度(SSTs)继续回暖。赤道太平洋远东地区出现了超过1°C的正距平。6月海温距平图显示,热带太平洋西部海温正距平平均幅度约为热带太平洋西部的一半,而位于赤道以北的负距平状况大体类似于上月。而西太平洋北部沿岸地区的海温正距平幅度也有所下降。
IndexMayJuneTemperature change
NINO3+0.3+0.80.5 °C warmer
NINO3.4 0.0+0.40.4 °C warmer
NINO4−0.1+0.10.2 °C warmer

1.gif
Weekly sea surface temperatures:
每周海洋表面温度:

Warm sea-surface temperature (SST) anomalies in the central tropical Pacific have increased slightly when compared to two weeks ago. The SST anomaly map for the week ending 29 July shows warm anomalies extend along the equator east of about 170°W, reaching more than 1 °C warmer than usual in parts of the eastern tropical Pacific. Tropical SSTs in the western half of the Pacific are near average for this time of the year.
热带太平洋中部洋面的海温正距平与两周前相比有所增加,截至7月29日的每周海温距平图显示,正距平区沿赤道一直扩展到170°W左右,热带太平洋东部的多数地区出现了超过1 ℃的正距平,而热带太平洋西部的海温则接近常年平均水平。
IndexPreviousCurrentTemperature change
(2 weeks)
NINO3+1.0+1.0no change
NINO3.4+0.5+0.70.2 °C warmer
NINO4+0.2+0.30.1 °C warmer

2.gif
Pacific ocean sub-surface temperatures
太平洋次表层海温

Monthly sub-surface:
每月次表层海温:

The four-month sequence (to 26 July) of sub-surface temperature anomalies in the equatorial Pacific Ocean shows warm anomalies are in place across the sub-surface of the entire equatorial Pacific. After a gradual warming of the sub-surface during April, May and June, July anomalies have remained generally similar in strength to those for June. Areas of the ocean sub-surface in both the eastern and western Pacific were 2 to 3 °C warmer than average during July.
截至7月26日的四个月赤道太平洋次表层海温距平图显示,赤道太平洋所有地区的次表层海温均出现了正距平。次表层海温在经历了四-六月的变暖期后,七月的次表层海温距平大体相当于六月。而东部及西部的次表层海温则出现了幅度为2-3℃的正距平。
3.gif
Weekly sub-surface:
每周次表层海温:

When compared with two weeks ago, shallow sub-surface temperature anomalies have remained generally unchanged. Below about 100 m, the sub-surface has cooled slightly, with much of the water between depths of 100 and 250 m more than 1 °C cooler than usual. Closer to the surface, the map for the 5 days ending 29 July shows mild warm anomalies are in place across the shallow sub-surface of the entire equatorial Pacific.
与两周前相比,次表层浅层的温度距平幅度保持不变,在100米之下,次表层海温的正距平幅度逐渐减少,而100-250米之间大部分地区的次表层海温则出现超过1℃的负距平。截至7月29日的5天次表层海温距平图显示,赤道太平洋浅层地区的次表层海温均出现正距平。
4.gif
Southern Oscillation Index:
南方涛动指数:

The Southern Oscillation Index (SOI) has continued to rise over the past two weeks, remaining within neutral values during the past fortnight. The latest (29 July) 30-day SOI value is +0.9.
在过去两周内,南方涛动指数(SOI)持续上升,并保持中性。最新30天(截至7月29日)的SOI值为+0.9。
Sustained positive values of the SOI above +8 may indicate a La Niña event, while sustained negative values below −8 may indicate an El Niño event. Values of between about +8 and −8 generally indicate neutral conditions.
SOI持续在+8以上,可能意味着拉尼娜事件的发生;而SOI持续在-8以上,可能意味着厄尔尼诺事件的发生。 SOI在+8和-8之间维持的话,通常表示情况为中性。
5.png
Trade winds:
信风:

Trade winds are generally near average over the tropical Pacific (see wind anomaly map for the 5 days ending 29 July). Westerly wind anomalies (indicating a weakening of the trade winds) have reappeared in the far western tropical Pacific.
热带太平洋的信风接近平均水平(见截至7月29日的5天风力异常图)。而西风异常在热带太平洋远西地区再次出现(信风减弱的标志)。
During La Niña events, there is a sustained strengthening of the trade winds across much of the tropical Pacific, while during El Niño events there is a sustained weakening of the trade winds.
在拉尼娜事件发生时,赤道太平洋地区的大部分地区的信风会持续增强;而在厄尔尼诺事件发生时,信风会持续减弱。
6.gif
Cloudiness near the dateline:
换日线附近云量:

Cloudiness near the Date Line has continued to fluctuate, but has remained generally enhanced over the past two weeks.
换日线附近的云量继续波动,但在过去两周内保持着上升趋势。
Cloudiness along the equator, near the dateline, is an important indicator of ENSO conditions, as it typically increases (negative OLR anomalies) near and to the east of the Date Line during an El Niño event and decreases (positive OLR anomalies) during a La Niña event.
换日线附近赤道地区云量是ENSO重要指标之一,在厄尔尼诺现象发生时,换日线附近及以东的云量通常会增加(OLR负距平),而在拉尼娜事件下则会减少(OLR正距平)。
7.gif
Climate Models:
气候模式:

Most international climate models surveyed by the Bureau predict that the equatorial Pacific Ocean is likely to remain near El Niño thresholds throughout late winter and early spring 2012. Some models continue to predict the chance of an El Niño developing before the end of the year. However, several of the surveyed models continue to exhibit a degree of spread in their forecasts, indicating that a level of uncertainty remains.
本局的所有国际气候模型均预测,赤道太平洋的指标可能在2012年春季到晚冬一直保持着发生厄尔尼诺现象的指标。部分模型依旧认为厄尔尼诺现象有望在年底前得到发展,然而部分模型依旧固执地认为其将保持中性,这表明该现象目前依旧具有一定的不确定性。
8.png
Indian Ocean Dipole:
印度洋偶极子:

The IOD has been neutral for a number of weeks. The latest IOD index value is +0.16 for the week ending 22 July.
在过去几周内IOD指数均保持着中性,截至7月22日的最新1周IOD指数为+0.16。
Recent forecasts from the POAMA model indicate neutral to weak positive IOD conditions are likely through winter and spring.
最近POAMA模型预测表明,IOD指数可能在今年冬季到春季时呈现出中性或弱正位相。
9.png
层主吃了一斤小苹果 感觉自己萌~萌~哒~ (*/ω\*)
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