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[定期翻译] ENSO监测翻译

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发表于 2012-8-17 12:47 | 显示全部楼层
Renewed development towards El Niño
厄尔尼诺现象再度出现(2012.08.14)

Climate indicators in the tropical Pacific Ocean remain close to El Niño thresholds. Although El Niño development stalled during the second half of July, over the past fortnight indicators such as the Southern Oscillation Index and trade wind strength have shown renewed trends that are consistent with the early stages of an El Niño event. Likewise, the central Pacific Ocean has continued to warm.
热带太平洋的气候指标依旧徘徊在厄尔尼诺现象的指标附近。虽然各项指标在7月下旬之后便陷于停滞,但在过去两周内,包含南方涛动指数和信风强度在内的指标则迈入了厄尔尼诺现象的门槛。而太平洋中部地区亦继续升温。
Climate models surveyed by the Bureau of Meteorology continue to show further warming across the tropical Pacific Ocean, with temperatures exceeding El Niño thresholds before the end of September 2012. None of the models surveyed indicate a return to La Niña conditions.
本局的气候模型得出的结果认为在2012年9月底之前,热带太平洋的海温将继续上升并最终突破厄尔尼诺现象的指标。没有任何气候模型认为拉尼娜现象将会再度回归。
During El Niño events, large parts of eastern Australia are typically drier than normal during winter and spring, while southern Australian daytime temperatures tend to be warmer. However, El Niño does not guarantee widespread dry conditions.
在发生厄尔尼诺现象之时,澳大利亚东部大部分地区在冬季和春季将干旱少雨,而澳大利亚南部日间气温通常较为温暖,但是厄尔尼诺现象的发生并不代表必将发生干旱。
The Indian Ocean Dipole (IOD) is currently neutral. Outlooks from the Bureau’s climate model indicate a neutral to weakly positive IOD is likely through the remainder of winter and spring.
印度洋偶极子(IOD)指数目前处于中性,本局所有气候模型均显示,IOD指数将在余下的冬季和春季内呈现出中性至弱正位相。
Sea Surface Temperatures
海洋表面温度

Monthly sea surface temperatures:
每月海洋表面温度:

The distribution of sea surface temperature (SST) anomalies in the central and eastern equatorial Pacific Ocean for July was generally similar to that for June, although the area of water more than 1 °C warmer than usual has increased and now covers much of the eastern equatorial Pacific. The SST anomaly map for July also shows near-average SSTs across the western half of the tropical Pacific.
七月,赤道太平洋中部和东部的海水表面温度(SST)分布状况大致与六月相似,然而超过1℃的正距平区现已将赤道太平洋东部地区完全覆盖。七月海温距平图显示,热带太平洋西部的海水表面温度接近正常水平。
IndexJuneJulyTemperature change
NINO3+0.8+0.90.1 °C warmer
NINO3.4+0.4+0.60.2 °C warmer
NINO4+0.1+0.30.2 °C warmer

1.gif
Weekly sea surface temperatures:
每周海洋表面温度:

Warm sea-surface temperature (SST) anomalies in the central tropical Pacific continued to increase slightly when compared to two weeks ago, however anomalies in the far eastern tropical Pacific have decreased. The SST anomaly map for the week ending 12 August shows warm anomalies extend along most of the equator east of about 170°E, reaching more than 2 °C warmer than usual in a small area of the eastern tropical Pacific.
位于中太平洋的海水表面温度(SST)正距平区与两周前相比略有增加,而热带太平洋远东地区的变化情况则与之相反。截至8月12日的每周海温距平图显示,正距平区沿赤道向东扩展到170°W左右,而热带太平洋东部少数地区则出现了超过2℃的正距平。
IndexPreviousCurrentTemperature change
(2 weeks)
NINO3+1.0+0.80.2 °C cooler
NINO3.4+0.7+0.90.2 °C warmer
NINO4+0.3+0.60.3 °C warmer

2.gif
Pacific ocean sub-surface temperatures
太平洋次表层海温

Monthly sub-surface:
每月次表层海温:

The four-month sequence (to July) of sub-surface temperature anomalies in the equatorial Pacific Ocean shows that warm anomalies have been present across the sub-surface of the entire tropical Pacific for several months. The sub-surface water warmed through April, May and June. During July the sub-surface cooled slightly in the central and western Pacific, however, large areas of the ocean sub-surface in both the eastern and western Pacific remained 2 to 3 °C warmer than average.
截至七月的四个月赤道太平洋次表层海温距平图显示,赤道太平洋所有地区次表层海温出现的负距平已持续了几个月。次表层海温在经历了四-六月的变暖期后,太平洋中部和西部的次表层海温在七月略有下降。而太平洋东部及西部的次表层海温则出现了2-3℃的正距平。
3.gif
Weekly sub-surface:
每周次表层海温:

Temperature anomalies in the shallow sub-surface have remained generally similar to those of two weeks ago, although the strength of warm anomalies in the far eastern equatorial Pacific has lessened slightly. The map for the 5 days ending 12 August shows mild sub-surface warm anomalies are in place across the shallow sub-surface of the entire equatorial Pacific. Below about 100 m, the sub-surface has warmed slightly when compared with two weeks ago, but remains cooler than average.
虽然赤道太平洋远东地区的次表层海温正距平幅度有所下降,但浅层次表层海温距平依然与两周前大致相同。截至8月12日的5日次表层海温距平图显示,整个赤道太平洋浅层次表层海温均出现了正距平。而100米以下的次表层海温虽然与两周前相比略有回升,但却依旧处于负距平。
4.gif
Southern Oscillation Index:
南方涛动指数:

The Southern Oscillation Index (SOI) has fallen over the past two weeks, but remained within neutral values during the past fortnight, before returning to El Niño threshold values. The latest (12 August) 30-day SOI value is −8.1.
在过去两周内,南方涛动指数(SOI)保持下降趋势,但依旧保持中性,之后首次跌破厄尔尼诺现象的指标,最新30天(截至8月12日)的SOI值为-8.1。
Sustained positive values of the SOI above +8 may indicate a La Niña event, while sustained negative values below −8 may indicate an El Niño event. Values of between about +8 and −8 generally indicate neutral conditions.
SOI持续在+8以上,可能意味着拉尼娜事件的发生;而SOI持续在-8以上,可能意味着厄尔尼诺事件的发生。 SOI在+8和-8之间维持的话,通常表示情况为中性。
5.png
Trade winds:
信风:

Trade winds are near average over most of the tropical Pacific, however westerly anomalies (weakening of the trade winds) have emerged around 150°W (see wind anomaly map for the 5 days ending 12 August).
热带太平洋大部分地区的信风接近平均水平,而西风异常(信风减弱的标志)却在150°W附近出现(见截至8月12日的5天风力异常图)。
During La Niña events, there is a sustained strengthening of the trade winds across much of the tropical Pacific, while during El Niño events there is a sustained weakening of the trade winds.
在拉尼娜事件发生时,赤道太平洋地区的大部分地区的信风会持续增强;而在厄尔尼诺事件发生时,信风会持续减弱。
6.gif
Cloudiness near the dateline:
换日线附近云量:

Cloudiness near the Date Line has been suppressed during the past two weeks.
在过去两周内,换日线附近的云量受到抑制。
Cloudiness along the equator, near the dateline, is an important indicator of ENSO conditions, as it typically increases (negative OLR anomalies) near and to the east of the Date Line during an El Niño event and decreases (positive OLR anomalies) during a La Niña event.
换日线附近赤道地区云量是ENSO重要指标之一,在厄尔尼诺现象发生时,换日线附近及以东的云量通常会增加(OLR负距平),而在拉尼娜事件下则会减少(OLR正距平)。
7.gif
Climate Models:
气候模式:

International climate models surveyed by the Bureau predict that the equatorial Pacific Ocean is likely to remain at or above El Niño thresholds for the remainder of winter and into early 2012. Several of the surveyed models also continue to exhibit a degree of spread in their forecasts, indicating that a level of uncertainty remains.
本局的所有国际气候模型均预测,赤道太平洋的指标可能在2012年春季到冬季的余下时间内保持在厄尔尼诺现象的指标之上。而部分模型依旧认为厄尔尼诺现象有望得到发展,这表明该现象目前依旧具有一定的不确定性。
8.png
Indian Ocean Dipole:
印度洋偶极子:

The Indian Ocean Dipole (IOD) has been neutral for a number of weeks. The latest IOD index value is +0.24 for the week ending 12 August.
在过去几周内IOD指数一直保持中性,截至8月12日的最新1周IOD指数为+0.24。
Recent forecasts from the POAMA model indicate the IOD will remain neutral to weakly positive for the remainder of winter and the following spring.
最近POAMA模型预测表明,IOD指数可能在今年冬季到明年春季呈现出中性或弱正位相。
9.png
层主吃了一斤小苹果 感觉自己萌~萌~哒~ (*/ω\*)
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发表于 2012-8-28 17:11 | 显示全部楼层
El Niño edges closer
厄爾尼諾的臨界點變得更為接近(28-8-2012)

Tropical Pacific Ocean indicators have remained close to El Niño thresholds over the past fortnight. While tropical Pacific sea surface temperatures and the Southern Oscillation Index (SOI), approached or exceeded El Niño values during the past fortnight, other indicators such as the trade winds and tropical cloud patterns have yet to show typical El Niño signatures.
過去兩星期, 熱帶太平洋的多項指標仍然十分接近厄爾尼諾的臨界點. 在這兩個星期內, 當熱帶太平洋的海水表層溫度和南方濤動指數(SOI)靠近或超過厄爾尼諾值的同時, 其他指標(例如信風, 熱帶雲層分佈)仍未表現出典型的厄爾尼諾特徵.
Regardless of the ENSO state, the tropical Pacific remains warmer than average. This, combined with other influences on Australian climate such as cooler than normal waters to the north of the continent and the patterns of cloud and ocean temperatures in the Indian Ocean, tends to favour below-average rainfall over eastern Australia.
儘管出現了以上的ENSO狀態, 熱帶太平洋仍然比平均值為暖, 結合其他對澳洲氣候的影響(例如澳洲大陸北部的水溫比正常為冷, 雲層的分佈, 以及印度洋的海水溫度), 這個趨勢可能導致澳洲東部的雨量比平均值為少.
Climate models surveyed by the Bureau of Meteorology suggest sea surface temperatures in the tropical Pacific Ocean will maintain values close to, or greater than, typical El Niño thresholds before returning to neutral towards the end of 2012 or early 2013.
氣象局參考的氣候模式表示, 熱帶太平洋的海水表層溫度會維持在接近(或高於)典型的厄爾尼諾臨界點, 直到2012年末或20123年初回落至中性值為止.
The Indian Ocean Dipole is presently neutral. Outlooks from the Bureau’s climate model indicate a neutral to weakly positive Indian Ocean Dipole is likely through spring.
現時印度洋偶極子為中性. 氣象局的氣候模式預測, 在(南半球的)春季期間, IOD可能會維持在中性至弱正相之間.

Sea Surface Temperatures
海洋表層溫度
Monthly sea surface temperatures:  
每月海洋表層溫度:
The distribution of sea surface temperature (SST) anomalies in the central and eastern equatorial Pacific Ocean for July was generally similar to that for June, although the area of water more than 1 °C warmer than usual has increased and now covers much of the eastern equatorial Pacific. The SST anomaly map for July also shows near-average SSTs across the western half of the tropical Pacific.
7月的赤道太平洋中部和東部海洋表層溫度(SST)距平分佈, 和6月的大致相若, 儘管超過1度的正距平區擴大了, 並覆蓋了大部分的赤道太平洋東部. 7月SST距平圖也顯示, 赤道太平洋西部的SST接近正常.
IndexJuneJulyTemperature change
NINO3+0.8+0.90.1 °C warmer
NINO3.4+0.4+0.60.2 °C warmer
NINO4+0.1+0.30.2 °C warmer

sst_monthly.gif

Weekly sea surface temperatures:  
每周海洋表層溫度:
Sea-surface temperature (SST) anomalies remain slightly elevated (warmer than average) across most of the equatorial Pacific. The SST anomaly map for the week ending 26 August shows warm anomalies reaching more than 1 °C warmer than usual in large parts of this area.
大部分赤道太平洋地區的海洋表層溫度(SST), 仍然稍為偏高(比平均值為暖). 直到8月26日為止, 過去一週的SST距平圖顯示, 以上的大部分地區的正距平已超過1度.
IndexPreviousCurrentTemperature change
(2 weeks)
NINO3+0.8+0.60.2 °C cooler
NINO3.4+0.9+0.80.1 °C cooler
NINO4+0.6+0.70.1 °C warmer

sst_weekly.gif

Pacific ocean sub-surface temperatures
太平洋地區的次表層海溫  
Monthly sub-surface:  
每月次表層海溫:
The four-month sequence (to August 27) of sub-surface temperature anomalies in the equatorial Pacific Ocean shows that, although warm anomalies are still present across the sub-surface of most of the equatorial Pacific, the strength of these anomalies has decreased significantly compared to previous months. A small part of the sub-surface in the eastern Pacific remains more than 2 °C warmer than average.
過去4個月(直到8月27日為止)的赤道太平洋次表層海溫距平序列顯示, 雖然正距平仍存在於大部分赤道太平洋地區的次表層, 但是和過去數月的相比之下, 其強度已經明顯減弱. 東太平洋還有一小片超過2度的正距平區.
sub_surf_mon.gif

Weekly sub-surface:  
每周次表層海溫:
Temperature anomalies in the shallow sub-surface have decreased when compared to two weeks ago, and are now near average across most of the equatorial Pacific. The map for the 5 days ending 26 August shows very weak sub-surface warm anomalies across the shallow sub-surface of the equatorial Pacific.
和兩星期前相比,淺\次表層的溫度距平已經有所下降, 現在大部分赤道太平洋地區的距平已趨於正常. 直到8月26日為止, 過去5天的距平圖顯示, 在赤道太平洋的淺\次表層, 仍然有著很弱的次表層正距平區.
sub_surf_tao.gif

Southern Oscillation Index:
南方濤動指數:
The Southern Oscillation Index (SOI) has risen slightly over the past week, but has remained within values indicative of El Niño for the past two weeks. The latest (26 August) 30-day SOI value is −8.9.
過去一星期, 南方濤動指數(SOI)稍為上升, 但是在過去兩星期, SOI仍然在厄爾尼諾的指標值之內. 最新(8月26日)的30天SOI值為-8.9.
Sustained positive values of the SOI above +8 may indicate a La Niña event, while sustained negative values below −8 may indicate an El Niño event. Values of between about +8 and −8 generally indicate neutral conditions.
SOI持續在+8以上,可能意味著拉尼娜事件的發生;而SOI持續在-8以上,可能意味著厄爾尼諾事件的發生。SOI在+8和-8之間維持的話,通常表示情況為中性。
soi30.png

Trade winds:
信風:
Trade winds have strengthened slightly over the past two weeks, and are presently near average over most of the tropical Pacific. The wind anomaly map for the 5 days ending 12 August shows weak positive anomalies (stronger than average trade winds) just north of the equator in the central Pacific.
和兩星期前相比,信風稍為增強了, 現在大部分太平洋地區的信風強度已接近平均值.
During La Niña events, there is a sustained strengthening of the trade winds across much of the tropical Pacific, while during El Niño events there is a sustained weakening of the trade winds.
在拉尼娜事件下,赤道太平洋地區的大部分地區的信風會持續增強;而在厄爾尼諾事件下,信風會持續減弱。
sst_wind_anom_5day.large.gif

Cloudiness near the dateline:
換日線附近的雲量:
Cloudiness near the Date Line has fluctuated over the past two weeks, but has generally been near average values.
在過去兩星期,換日線附近的雲量有所波動, 但是大致上仍然接近平均值.
Cloudiness along the equator, near the dateline, is an important indicator of ENSO conditions, as it typically increases (negative OLR anomalies) near and to the east of the Date Line during an El Niño event and decreases (positive OLR anomalies) during a La Niña event.
換日線附近的赤道地區雲量,是ENSO狀況的重要指標之一,因為在厄爾尼諾事件下,換日線附近和以東的雲量通常會增加(OLR負距平),而在拉尼娜事件下則會減少(OLR正距平)。
region.ts.dateline.gif

Climate Models:
氣候模式:  
Most of the international climate models surveyed by the Bureau indicate that the equatorial Pacific Ocean is likely to remain near, or exceed, El Niño thresholds for the remainder of 2012. Most models predict that sea surface temperatures in the central Pacific will remain close to current values, while a few predict continued warming, before returning to neutral in early 2013.
本局參考的大部分國際氣候模式指出,在2012年餘下的時間以內, 赤道太平洋似乎維持著接近(或超出)厄爾尼諾的臨界值. 大部分模式預測, 中太平洋的海洋表層溫度會維持在現在的數值附近, 同時有少數模式預測該區會持續轉暖, 直到在2013年初回復中性值為止.
poama.nino34.small.png


Indian Ocean Dipole:  
印度洋偶極子:
The Indian Ocean Dipole (IOD) has been neutral for a number of weeks. However, values of the IOD index have lifted above positive thresholds in recent weeks. The latest IOD index value is +0.69 for the week ending 26 August. Waters off the coast of Sumatra and northwestern Australia are cooler than average, which is somewhat typical of a positive IOD pattern. If such a pattern were to be sustained, it would favour reduced rainfall over northern and eastern Australia.
印度洋偶極子(IOD)已連續多週維持在中性的水平. 可是, 最近數週的IOD數值上升至正臨界值之上. 直到8月26日為止的一週, 最新的IOD指數數值為+0.69. 蘇門答臘沿岸和澳洲西北部的水溫比平均值為低, 在某種意義上, 這是典型IOD正相位的特徵. 假如這個局面持續下去的話, 澳洲北部和東部的降水可能會減少.
Recent forecasts from the POAMA model indicate the IOD will remain neutral to weakly positive throughout spring.
最近POAMA的預報模式預測, 在(南半球的)春季期間, IOD會維持在中性至弱正相之間.
poama.iod.small.png
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发表于 2012-9-12 00:13 | 显示全部楼层
Pacific near El Niño thresholds; positive Indian Ocean Dipole
太平洋已經到達厄爾尼諾的臨界點; 印度洋偶極子為正相(11-9-2012)

Tropical Pacific Ocean sea surface temperatures remain at values close to El Niño thresholds. Other ENSO indicators such as the trade winds and tropical cloud patterns show patterns more typical of neutral conditions. The Southern Oscillation Index (SOI) is also presently within neutral values.
熱帶太平洋的海洋表層溫度, 仍然維持在接近厄爾尼諾臨界點的水平. 其他的ENSO指標(例如信風, 熱帶雲層分佈), 呈現出更為接近典型中性狀態的狀況. 現時南方濤動指數(SOI)繼續維持在中性的數值.
Regardless of whether El Niño thresholds are reached, the tropical Pacific remains warmer than average. This, combined with other influences on Australian climate such as cooler than normal waters to the north of the Australian continent and the patterns of cloud and ocean temperatures in the Indian Ocean, tends to favour below average spring rainfall over much of Australia.
摒開\"厄爾尼諾是否已經到達臨界點\"這點不說, 熱帶太平洋還是比平均值為暖. 結合其他對澳洲氣候的影響(例如澳洲大陸北部的水溫比正常為冷, 雲層的分佈, 以及印度洋的海水溫度), 這個趨勢可能導致澳洲大部分地區的春季雨量比平均值為少.
Climate models surveyed by the Bureau of Meteorology suggest sea surface temperatures in the tropical Pacific Ocean will maintain values close to El Niño thresholds before returning to more neutral values towards the end of 2012 or early 2013.
氣象局參考的氣候模式表示, 熱帶太平洋的海水表層溫度, 會維持在接近典型的厄爾尼諾臨界點, 直到2012年末或20123年初回落至中性值為止.
The Indian Ocean Dipole (IOD) is currently positive, with values of the IOD index consistently above positive thresholds for the past 7 weeks. Outlooks from the Bureau’s climate model indicate the IOD will likely remain positive throughout the remainder of spring. A positive IOD is usually associated with decreased spring rainfall over parts of southern, central and northern Australia.
現時印度洋偶極子(IOD)為正相, 同時, 在過去7星期, IOD指數一直維持在正臨界值之上. 氣象局的氣候模式指出, IOD正相會在(南半球的)春季維持. 一般來說, IOD正相會導致澳洲南部, 中部和北部的春季雨量比平均值為少.

Sea Surface Temperatures  
海洋表層溫度
Monthly sea surface temperatures:
每月海洋表層溫度:
The sea-surface temperature (SST) anomaly map for August shows the focus of warmer-than-average SSTs has migrated towards the central tropical Pacific Ocean, whereas during July the warmest anomalies were located in the east of the tropical Pacific. SSTs are close to average across the far eastern tropical Pacific and the Maritime Continent. An area of water along the equator between 160°W and 120°W is more than 1 °C warmer than usual.
8月的海洋表層溫度(SST)距平圖顯示, SST正距平的集中點已經遷移至熱帶中太平洋, 而在7月期間, 最暖的正距平區是在熱帶太平洋東部. 熱帶遠東太平洋和西太平洋的SST則接近平均值. 另外, 在西經160-120度之間, 赤道附近的海域, 其SST高於平均值超過1度.
IndexJulyAugustTemperature change
NINO3+0.9+0.80.1 °C cooler
NINO3.4+0.6+0.90.3 °C warmer
NINO4+0.3+0.60.3 °C warmer

sst_monthly.gif

Weekly sea surface temperatures:   
每周海洋表層溫度:
Sea-surface temperature (SST) anomalies remain slightly elevated (warmer than average) across most of the equatorial Pacific. The SST anomaly map for the week ending 9 September anomalies greater than +1 °C in small areas across the equatorial Pacific.
大部分赤道太平洋地區的海洋表層溫度(SST), 仍然稍為偏高(比平均值為暖). 直到9月9日為止, 過去一週的SST距平圖顯示, 小部分赤道太平洋水域的正距平大於1度.
IndexPreviousCurrentTemperature change
(2 weeks)
NINO3+0.6+0.70.1 °C warmer
NINO3.4+0.8+0.8no change
NINO4+0.7+0.60.1 °C cooler

sst_weekly.gif

Pacific ocean sub-surface temperatures
太平洋地區的次表層海溫
Monthly sub-surface:
每月次表層海溫:
The four-month sequence (to August) of sub-surface temperature anomalies in the equatorial Pacific Ocean shows that, although warm anomalies are still present across the sub-surface of most of the equatorial Pacific, the strength of these anomalies has decreased significantly compared to previous months. A small part of the sub-surface in the eastern Pacific remains more than 2 °C warmer than average.
過去4個月(直到8月為止)的赤道太平洋次表層海溫距平序列顯示, 儘管正距平區仍然存在於大部分赤道太平洋地區的次表層, 但是和過去數月的相比之下, 其強度已經明顯減弱. 東太平洋還有一小片超過2度的正距平區.
sub_surf_mon.gif

Weekly sub-surface:
每周次表層海溫:
Sub-surface temperature anomalies in the shallow eastern equatorial Pacific have increased slightly compared to two weeks ago; a small area of water is more than 2 °C warmer than average. The map for the 5 days ending 9 September also shows very weak warm anomalies across the shallow sub-surface of the remainder of the equatorial Pacific.
和兩星期前相比, 赤道東太平洋的淺\次表層的溫度距平已經稍為下降; 該區仍有一小片超過2度的正距平區. 直到9月9日為止, 過去5天的距平圖顯示, 在其餘的赤道太平洋海域, 仍然存在著很弱的次表層正距平區.
sub_surf_tao.gif


Southern Oscillation Index:
南方濤動指數:
The Southern Oscillation Index (SOI) has climbed sharply over the past fortnight, returning to neutral values. The latest (9 September) 30-day SOI value is +0.8.
過去兩星期, 南方濤動指數(SOI)急劇上升, 並回升至中性的數值. 最新(9月9日)的30天SOI值為+0.8.
Sustained positive values of the SOI above +8 may indicate a La Niña event, while sustained negative values below −8 may indicate an El Niño event. Values of between about +8 and −8 generally indicate neutral conditions.
SOI持續在+8以上,可能意味著拉尼娜事件的發生;而SOI持續在-8以上,可能意味著厄爾尼諾事件的發生。SOI在+8和-8之間維持的話,通常表示情況為中性。
soi30.png

Trade winds:
信風:
Trade winds have remained generally similar to two weeks ago across the central and eastern tropical Pacific, with weak easterly anomalies across that region. In the western tropical Pacific westerly wind anomalies (weaker than average trade winds) have emerged, with the wind anomaly map for the 5 days ending 9 September showing moderate westerly anomalies over this area.
和兩星期前相比,赤道太平洋東部和中部的信風形態大致相近, 同時該區有著微弱的偏東距平. 在熱帶西太平洋, 出現了西風距平(信風比平均值為弱), 而直到9月9日為止, 過去5天的風勢距平圖顯示, 該區有著中等強度的西風距平.
During La Niña events, there is a sustained strengthening of the trade winds across much of the tropical Pacific, while during El Niño events there is a sustained weakening of the trade winds.
在拉尼娜事件下,赤道太平洋地區的大部分地區的信風會持續增強;而在厄爾尼諾事件下,信風會持續減弱。
sst_wind_anom_5day.large.gif


Cloudiness near the dateline:
換日線附近的雲量:
Cloudiness near the Date Line has fluctuated over the past two weeks, with near average values following weakly negative anomalies at the start of the month.
在過去兩星期,換日線附近的雲量有所波動, 從初時的接近正常值, 逐漸轉為本月初的負距平.
Cloudiness along the equator, near the Date Line, is an important indicator of ENSO conditions, as it typically increases (negative OLR anomalies) near and to the east of the Date Line during an El Niño event and decreases (positive OLR anomalies) during a La Niña event.
換日線附近的赤道地區雲量,是ENSO狀況的重要指標之一,因為在厄爾尼諾事件下,換日線附近和以東的雲量通常會增加(OLR負距平),而在拉尼娜事件下則會減少(OLR正距平)。
region.ts.dateline.gif


Climate Models:
氣候模式:
Most of the international climate models surveyed by the Bureau indicate that the equatorial Pacific Ocean is likely to remain near El Niño thresholds for the remainder of 2012, before returning to neutral by early 2013.
本局參考的大部分國際氣候模式指出,在2012年餘下的時間以內, 赤道太平洋似乎會維持著接近厄爾尼諾的臨界值,直到2013年初回復至中性值為止.
poama.nino34.small.png


Indian Ocean Dipole:
印度洋偶極子:
The Indian Ocean Dipole (IOD) has continued to show a pattern typical of a positive IOD event, with cooler-than-average water off the coast of Sumatra and northwest Australia. Values of the IOD index have remained above positive thresholds, with the latest IOD index value +0.87 for the week ending 9 September. A positive IOD event favours reduced spring rainfall over parts of southern, central, and northern Australia.
印度洋偶極子(IOD)持續呈現著典型IOD正相事件的形態, 同時, 蘇門答臘沿岸和澳洲西北部的水溫比平均值為低. IOD指數數值已經持續高於正臨界值, 而直到9月9日為止的一週, 最新的IOD指數數值為+0.87. IOD正相會導致澳洲南部, 中部和北部的春季雨量比平均值為少.
Recent forecasts from the POAMA model indicate the IOD will remain weakly positive throughout spring.
最近POAMA的預報模式預測, 在(南半球的)春季期間, IOD會維持在弱正相之間.
poama.iod.small.png
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发表于 2012-9-29 22:38 | 显示全部楼层
厄爾尼諾的可能性減少, 但風險仍然存在(25-9-2012)
Odds of El Niño ease, but risk remains

Tropical Pacific Ocean temperatures have generally cooled over the past fortnight, easing towards neutral values (neither El Niño nor La Niña). Other ENSO indicators such as the Southern Oscillation Index (SOI) and tropical cloud patterns have remained at neutral levels. Given September is the time of year when El Niño events consolidate, this recent cooling is considered somewhat unusual, hence the risk of an El Niño event remains.
過去兩星期, 熱帶太平洋的溫度大致下降, 並回落至中性值(不是厄爾尼諾或拉尼娜). 其他的ENSO指標(例如南方濤動指數(SOI), 熱帶雲層分佈)也維持在中性程度. 由於9月是年內厄爾尼諾事件的整固期, 最近的降溫被視為不太正常的情況, 因此厄爾尼諾的風險仍然存在.
Despite the shift towards neutral conditions, the tropical Pacific remains warmer than average. When combined with the patterns of cloud and ocean temperatures in the Indian Ocean, conditions continue to favour below average spring rainfall over much of Australia.
儘管出現了轉為中性的趨勢, 熱帶太平洋仍然比平均值為暖. 結合雲層分佈和印度洋海溫的變化, 現時的情況可能導致澳洲大部分地區的春季雨量比平均值為少.
Climate models surveyed by the Bureau of Meteorology suggest sea surface temperatures in the tropical Pacific Ocean will maintain values around typical El Niño thresholds for the remainder of 2012.
氣象局參考的氣候模式表示, 在2012年的餘下時間, 熱帶太平洋的海水表層溫度, 會維持在接近典型厄爾尼諾臨界點的水平.
The Indian Ocean Dipole (IOD) is currently positive, with weekly values of the IOD index consistently above positive thresholds for the past two months. Outlooks from the Bureau’s climate model indicate the IOD will most likely remain positive throughout the remainder of spring. A positive IOD is typically associated with decreased winter and spring rainfall over parts of southern, central and northern Australia.
現時印度洋偶極子(IOD)為正相, 同時, 在過去兩個月, 每週IOD指數數值一直維持在正臨界值之上. 氣象局的氣候模式指出, IOD正相會在(南半球的)春季維持. 一般來說, IOD正相會導致澳洲南部, 中部和北部的春季雨量比平均值為少.

Sea Surface Temperatures
海洋表層溫度
Monthly sea surface temperatures:
每月海洋表層溫度:
The sea-surface temperature (SST) anomaly map for August shows the focus of warmer-than-average SSTs has migrated towards the central tropical Pacific Ocean, whereas during July the warmest anomalies were located in the east of the tropical Pacific. SSTs are close to average across the far eastern tropical Pacific and the Maritime Continent. An area of water along the equator between 160°W and 120°W is more than 1 °C warmer than usual.
8月的海洋表層溫度(SST)距平圖顯示, SST正距平的集中點已經遷移至熱帶中太平洋, 而在7月期間, 最暖的正距平區是在熱帶太平洋東部. 熱帶遠東太平洋和西太平洋的SST則接近平均值. 另外, 在西經160-120度之間, 赤道附近的海域, 有一片SST高於平均值超過1度的區域.
IndexJulyAugustTemperature change
NINO3+0.9+0.80.1 °C cooler
NINO3.4+0.6+0.90.3 °C warmer
NINO4+0.3+0.60.3 °C warmer

Baseline period 1961–1990.
sst_monthly.gif

Weekly sea surface temperatures:
每周海洋表層溫度:
Sea-surface temperature (SST) anomalies in the central and eastern tropical Pacific have cooled slightly, when compared with two weeks ago. However, the SST anomaly map for the week ending 23 September shows SSTs remain warmer than average across much of the equatorial Pacific.
和兩星期前相比, 熱帶太平洋中部和東部的海洋表層溫度(SST)正距平稍為下降. 但是, 直到9月23日為止, 過去一週的SST距平圖顯示, 大部分熱帶太平洋的SST仍然比平均值為高.
IndexPreviousCurrentTemperature change
(2 weeks)
NINO3+0.7+0.60.1 °C cooler
NINO3.4+0.8+0.50.3 °C cooler
NINO4+0.6+0.6no change

Baseline period 1961–1990.
sst_weekly.gif

Pacific ocean sub-surface temperatures
太平洋地區的次表層海溫
Monthly sub-surface:
每月次表層海溫:
The four-month sequence (to 24 September) of sub-surface temperature anomalies in the equatorial Pacific Ocean shows that cooling has occurred across most of the sub-surface of the equatorial Pacific. A small area of the sub-surface in the eastern Pacific remains more than 2 °C warmer than average, while a tongue of cooler-than-average water has emerged, stretching from surface waters in the far eastern Pacific to the central Pacific sub-surface.
過去4個月(直到9月24日為止)的赤道太平洋次表層海溫距平序列顯示, 絕大部分赤道太平洋地區的次表層水溫有所下降. 在東太平洋的次表層, 還有一小片超過2度的正距平區. 同時, 一道冷舌(比平均值為冷的區域)已經形成, 並由遠東太平洋的表層延伸至中太平洋的次表層.
sub_surf_mon.gif

Weekly sub-surface:
每周次表層海溫:
Sub-surface temperature anomalies in the equatorial Pacific have remained generally similar to those of two weeks ago. The map for the 5 days ending 23 September shows very weak warm anomalies across the top 100 m of the equatorial Pacific.
和兩星期前相比,赤道東太平洋的次表層的溫度距平大致相近. 直到9月23日為止, 過去5天的距平圖顯示, 在水深不到100米赤道太平洋上, 存在著很弱的正距平區.
sub_surf_tao.gif

Southern Oscillation Index:
南方濤動指數:
The Southern Oscillation Index (SOI) has remained within neutral values during the past fortnight. The latest (23 September) 30-day SOI value is +2.4.
過去兩星期, 南方濤動指數(SOI)維持在中性值的範圍之內, 最新(9月23日)的30天SOI值為+2.4.
Sustained positive values of the SOI above +8 may indicate a La Niña event, while sustained negative values below −8 may indicate an El Niño event. Values of between about +8 and −8 generally indicate neutral conditions.
SOI持續在+8以上,可能意味著拉尼娜事件的發生;而SOI持續在-8以上,可能意味著厄爾尼諾事件的發生。SOI在+8和-8之間維持的話,通常表示情況為中性。
soi30.png

Trade winds:
信風:
Trade winds have remained generally similar to two weeks ago across the equatorial Pacific. In the western tropical Pacific westerly wind anomalies (weaker than average trade winds) are present, with the wind anomaly map for the 5 days ending 23 September showing westerly anomalies have strengthened slightly over this area, while winds are near-average across the central and eastern tropical Pacific.
和兩星期前的相比,赤道太平洋的信風形態大致相近. 在熱帶西太平洋, 出現了西風距平(信風比平均值為弱), 同時, 直到9月23日為止, 過去5天的風勢距平圖顯示, 該區的西風距平稍為增強, 而熱帶太平洋中部和東部的信風則接近平均值.
During La Niña events, there is a sustained strengthening of the trade winds across much of the tropical Pacific, while during El Niño events there is a sustained weakening of the trade winds.
在拉尼娜事件下,赤道太平洋地區的大部分地區的信風會持續增強;而在厄爾尼諾事件下,信風會持續減弱。
sst_wind_anom_5day.large.gif


Cloudiness near the dateline:
換日線附近的雲量:
Cloudiness near the Date Line has continued to fluctuate over the past two weeks, but has remained close to average values.
在過去兩星期,換日線附近的雲量有所波動, 但仍然維持在接近平均值的水平.
Cloudiness along the equator, near the Date Line, is an important indicator of ENSO conditions, as it typically increases (negative OLR anomalies) near and to the east of the Date Line during an El Niño event and decreases (positive OLR anomalies) during a La Niña event.
換日線附近的赤道地區雲量,是ENSO狀況的重要指標之一,因為在厄爾尼諾事件下,換日線附近和以東的雲量通常會增加(OLR負距平),而在拉尼娜事件下則會減少(OLR正距平)。
region.ts.dateline.gif


Climate Models:
氣候模式:
Nearly all of the international climate models surveyed by the Bureau indicate that SSTs in the equatorial Pacific Ocean are likely to remain similar to their current values (i.e. in the neutral range but to El Niño thresholds) for the remainder of 2012, and into early 2013.
幾乎所有本局參考的大部分國際氣候模式, 皆指出在2012年餘下的時間, 以及2013年初, 赤道太平洋似乎會維持在接近現時的數值(也就是說, 在中性的範圍內,但接近厄爾尼諾的臨界值).
poama.nino34.small.png


Indian Ocean Dipole:
印度洋偶極子:
The Indian Ocean Dipole (IOD) has continued to show a pattern typical of a positive IOD event, with cooler-than-average water off the coast of Sumatra and warmer than average waters in the western Indian Ocean. Values of the IOD index have remained above positive thresholds for the past two months, with the latest value at +0.9 for the week ending 23 September. A positive IOD event favours reduced spring rainfall over parts of southern, central, and northern Australia.
印度洋偶極子(IOD)持續呈現著典型IOD正相事件的形態, 同時, 蘇門答臘沿岸的水溫較平均值為低, 而西印度洋的則較平均值為高. IOD指數數值已經持續高於正臨界值, 而直到9月23日為止的一週, 最新的IOD指數數值為+0.9. IOD正相事件會導致澳洲南部, 中部和北部的春季雨量比平均值為少.
Recent forecasts from the POAMA model indicate the IOD will remain weakly positive throughout spring.
最近POAMA的預報模式預測, 在(南半球的)春季期間, IOD會維持在弱正相之間.
poama.iod.small.png
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发表于 2012-9-29 22:53 | 显示全部楼层
重复了怎么办看来以后还是不翻为好

Odds of El Niño ease, but risk remains
发生厄尔尼诺事件的可能降低但依然存在(2012.09.15)

Tropical Pacific Ocean temperatures have generally cooled over the past fortnight, easing towards neutral values (neither El Niño nor La Niña). Other ENSO indicators such as the Southern Oscillation Index (SOI) and tropical cloud patterns have remained at neutral levels. Given September is the time of year when El Niño events consolidate, this recent cooling is considered somewhat unusual, hence the risk of an El Niño event remains.
在过去两周内,热带太平洋的海温有所回暖,并趋于回归中性(既未发生厄尔尼诺事件也未发生拉尼娜事件)。而ENSO指标中的南方涛动指数(SOI)以及热带地区云量则保持中性。由于通常厄尔尼诺事件都将在每年九月时达到鼎盛,故近期海温的下降略显异常,因此发生厄尔尼诺事件的几率依然存在。
Despite the shift towards neutral conditions, the tropical Pacific remains warmer than average. When combined with the patterns of cloud and ocean temperatures in the Indian Ocean, conditions continue to favour below average spring rainfall over much of Australia.
虽然目前这些指标均趋于中性,但热带太平洋地区的海温依旧保持正距平。当模型将印度洋的云量以及海温考虑在内时,输出结果依旧表示澳大利亚春季的降水量将出现负距平。
Climate models surveyed by the Bureau of Meteorology suggest sea surface temperatures in the tropical Pacific Ocean will maintain values around typical El Niño thresholds for the remainder of 2012.
而气象局的气候模型则表明,热带太平洋的海水表面温度将在2012年的余下时间中保持在厄尔尼诺事件的指标之上。
The Indian Ocean Dipole (IOD) is currently positive, with weekly values of the IOD index consistently above positive thresholds for the past two months. Outlooks from the Bureau’s climate model indicate the IOD will most likely remain positive throughout the remainder of spring. A positive IOD is typically associated with decreased winter and spring rainfall over parts of southern, central and northern Australia.
目前印度洋偶极子(IOD)正处于正位相,该指数在过去的两个月内一直处于正位相;气象局气候模型表明,IOD指数将有可能在今年春季的余下时间内继续保持正位相。当IOD处于正位相时,澳大利亚南部部分地区,中部以及北部在冬季以及春季时的降水将呈现负距平。
Sea Surface Temperatures
海洋表面温度

Monthly sea surface temperatures:
每月海洋表面温度:

The sea-surface temperature (SST) anomaly map for August shows the focus of warmer-than-average SSTs has migrated towards the central tropical Pacific Ocean, whereas during July the warmest anomalies were located in the east of the tropical Pacific. SSTs are close to average across the far eastern tropical Pacific and the Maritime Continent. An area of water along the equator between 160°W and 120°W is more than 1 °C warmer than usual.
八月的海水表面温度(SST)距平图显示,七月位于热带太平洋东部的正距平区已转移至热带太平洋中部;而远东太平洋以及西太平洋的海水表面温度则接近平均水平。同时赤道太平洋160°W到120°W之间的区域则出现了1℃的正距平。
IndexJulyAugustTemperature change
NINO3+0.9+0.80.1 °C cooler
NINO3.4+0.6+0.90.3 °C warmer
NINO4+0.3+0.60.3 °C warmer

1.gif
Weekly sea surface temperatures:
每周海洋表面温度:

Sea-surface temperature (SST) anomalies in the central and eastern tropical Pacific have cooled slightly, when compared with two weeks ago. However, the SST anomaly map for the week ending 23 September shows SSTs remain warmer than average across much of the equatorial Pacific.
与两周前相比,热带太平洋中部以及东部的海水表面温度(SST)正距平幅度有所下降;然而截至9月23日的每周海温距平图则依然显示出赤道太平洋正距平依旧较为明显。
IndexPreviousCurrentTemperature change
(2 weeks)
NINO3+0.7+0.60.1 °C cooler
NINO3.4+0.8+0.50.3 °C cooler
NINO4+0.6+0.6no change

2.gif
Pacific ocean sub-surface temperatures
太平洋次表层海温

Monthly sub-surface:
每月次表层海温:

The four-month sequence (to 24 September) of sub-surface temperature anomalies in the equatorial Pacific Ocean shows that cooling has occurred across most of the sub-surface of the equatorial Pacific. A small area of the sub-surface in the eastern Pacific remains more than 2 °C warmer than average, while a tongue of cooler-than-average water has emerged, stretching from surface waters in the far eastern Pacific to the central Pacific sub-surface.
截至9月24日的四个月赤道太平洋次表层海温距平图显示,赤道太平洋大多数正距平区的正距平幅度有所下降。而太平洋东部的少数地区依然出现了超过2℃的正距平;而热带太平洋远东地区以及热带太平洋东部则出现了负距平。
3.gif
Weekly sub-surface:
每周次表层海温:

Sub-surface temperature anomalies in the equatorial Pacific have remained generally similar to those of two weeks ago. The map for the 5 days ending 23 September shows very weak warm anomalies across the top 100 m of the equatorial Pacific.
赤道太平洋次表层海温距平程度与两周前大致相同。截至9月23日的5日次表层海温距平图显示,赤道太平洋深度100米之内的海温均出现了微弱的正距平。
4.gif
Southern Oscillation Index:
南方涛动指数:

The Southern Oscillation Index (SOI) has remained within neutral values during the past fortnight. The latest (23 September) 30-day SOI value is +2.4.
过去两周内,南方涛动指数(SOI)保持中性,最新30天(截至9月23日)的SOI值为+2.4。
Sustained positive values of the SOI above +8 may indicate a La Niña event, while sustained negative values below −8 may indicate an El Niño event. Values of between about +8 and −8 generally indicate neutral conditions.
SOI持续在+8以上,可能意味着拉尼娜事件的发生;而SOI持续在-8以上,可能意味着厄尔尼诺事件的发生。 SOI在+8和-8之间维持的话,通常表示情况为中性。
5.png
Trade winds:
信风:

Trade winds have remained generally similar to two weeks ago across the equatorial Pacific. In the western tropical Pacific westerly wind anomalies (weaker than average trade winds) are present, with the wind anomaly map for the 5 days ending 23 September showing westerly anomalies have strengthened slightly over this area, while winds are near-average across the central and eastern tropical Pacific.
赤道太平洋地区的信风与两周前大致相同。截至9月23日的5天风力距平图显示,目前热带西太平洋的西风异常(信风减弱的标志)幅度有所加强,而热带中太平洋和热带东太平洋的信风则接近平均水平。
During La Niña events, there is a sustained strengthening of the trade winds across much of the tropical Pacific, while during El Niño events there is a sustained weakening of the trade winds.
在拉尼娜事件发生时,赤道太平洋地区的大部分地区的信风会持续增强;而在厄尔尼诺事件发生时,信风会持续减弱。
6.gif
Cloudiness near the dateline:
换日线附近云量:

Cloudiness near the Date Line has continued to fluctuate over the past two weeks, but has remained close to average values.
虽然在过去两周内换日线附近的云量持续波动,但依旧保持在平均水平附近。
Cloudiness along the equator, near the Date Line, is an important indicator of ENSO conditions, as it typically increases (negative OLR anomalies) near and to the east of the Date Line during an El Niño event and decreases (positive OLR anomalies) during a La Niña event.
换日线附近赤道地区云量是ENSO重要指标之一,在厄尔尼诺现象发生时,换日线附近及以东的云量通常会增加(OLR负距平),而在拉尼娜事件下则会减少(OLR正距平)。
7.gif
Climate Models:
气候模式:

Nearly all of the international climate models surveyed by the Bureau indicate that SSTs in the equatorial Pacific Ocean are likely to remain similar to their current values (i.e. in the neutral range but to El Niño thresholds) for the remainder of 2012, and into early 2013.
几乎所有气象局的气候模型都表示,赤道太平洋的海温可能在2012年余下时间到2013年初时保持为中性,但是仍将在发生厄尔尼诺事件的指标附近徘徊。
8.png
Indian Ocean Dipole:
印度洋偶极子:

The Indian Ocean Dipole (IOD) has continued to show a pattern typical of a positive IOD event, with cooler-than-average water off the coast of Sumatra and warmer than average waters in the western Indian Ocean. Values of the IOD index have remained above positive thresholds for the past two months, with the latest value at +0.9 for the week ending 23 September. A positive IOD event favours reduced spring rainfall over parts of southern, central, and northern Australia.
IOD依旧保持着弱正位相,当IOD处于正位相时,苏门达腊附近的海温将呈现出负距平,而西印度洋则恰恰相反;而澳大利亚南部,中部及北部部分地区春季的降水也将偏少。过去两个月内,IOD保持在正位相的指标之上,截至9月12日的最新1周IOD指数为+0.9。
Recent forecasts from the POAMA model indicate the IOD will remain weakly positive throughout spring.
最近POAMA模型预测表明,IOD指数将在今年春季保持为弱正位相。
9.png
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发表于 2012-10-10 12:49 | 显示全部楼层
Pacific eases further away from El Niño thresholds
太平洋发生厄尔尼诺事件的可能继续降低(2012.10.07)

The chance of El Niño developing in 2012 has reduced over the past fortnight. The tropical Pacific continued its retreat from El Niño thresholds for the second consecutive fortnight (i.e., ocean temperatures cooled), remaining within the neutral range (neither El Niño nor La Niña). Other ENSO indicators such as the Southern Oscillation Index (SOI) and tropical cloud patterns have persisted at neutral levels since late July.
2012年发生厄尔尼诺事件的可能继续降低。在过去一个月内,热带太平洋地区的条件继续远离厄尔尼诺事件的标准(即海温降低),并继续保持在中性(既未发生厄尔尼诺事件也未发生拉尼娜事件)。而南方涛动指数(SOI)和热带地区云量则自7月下旬以来一直保持在中性。
Given the rate of ocean cooling, and the continued neutral conditions in the atmosphere, the chance of an El Niño developing in 2012 has reduced further over the past fortnight. However, some risk still remains while the trade winds in the western Pacific continue to be weaker than normal. Climate models surveyed by the Bureau of Meteorology have increased their chances of sea surface temperatures in the tropical Pacific Ocean remaining at neutral levels, though still warmer than average, for the remainder of 2012.
鉴于过去两周内海水表面温度继续降低,而大气条件也一直保持在中性,因此发生厄尔尼诺事件的可能进一步降低。然而由于西太平洋的信风强度依旧保持为负距平,因此发生厄尔尼诺事件的概率依旧存在。气象局的气候模型表明,在2012年余下时间内,热带太平洋的各项指标都将保持在中性,但当地的海温仍将略高于平均水平。
The Indian Ocean Dipole (IOD) is likely to return to neutral values during the latter half of the southern spring, according to outlooks from the Bureau’s climate model. The IOD index has been consistently above +0.4 °C since mid-July, indicative of a positive IOD event. A positive IOD is typically associated with decreased winter and spring rainfall over parts of southern, central and northern Australia.
气象局的气候模型表明,印度洋偶极子(IOD)可能将在南半球的晚春时节恢复中性。自7月中旬以来, IOD指数正距平幅度保持在0.4℃之上,这表明IOD处于正位相;当IOD处于正位相时,澳大利亚南部部分地区,中部以及北部在冬季以及春季时的降水将呈现负距平。
Sea Surface Temperatures
海洋表面温度

Monthly sea surface temperatures:
每月海洋表面温度:

The sea-surface temperature (SST) anomaly map for September shows the magnitude of warm SST anomalies in the tropical Pacific Ocean has lessened over the past month. SSTs are now slightly above average across most of the tropical Pacific east of 150°E. The warmest anomalies are west of the Date Line, where a small area of water is more than 1 °C warmer than usual.
九月海水表面温度(SST)距平图显示,过去一个月中热带太平洋海温正距平幅度已明显下降;赤道太平洋的大部分地区海温依旧保持着正距平,其中以150°W以东到国际日期变更线之间的海域正距平幅度最大,部分地区出现了超过1℃的正距平。
IndexAugustSeptemberTemperature change
NINO3+0.8+0.60.2 °C cooler
NINO3.4+0.9+0.60.3 °C cooler
NINO4+0.6+0.6no change

1.gif
Weekly sea surface temperatures:
每周海洋表面温度:

Sea-surface temperature (SST) anomalies in the central and eastern tropical Pacific have cooled further over the past two weeks. While the distribution of warm anomalies remains similar to last fortnight, the pattern is breaking down and no longer shows the organised tongue of warm anomalies along the central equatorial Pacific characteristic of an El Niño. The SST anomaly map for the week ending 7 October shows slightly warmer than average SSTs in much of the central equatorial Pacific.
与两周前相比,热带太平洋中部以及东部的海水表面温度(SST)正距平幅度进一步下降;虽然这些地区的海温依旧保持为正距平,但是与厄尔尼诺事件相关的出现在赤道太平洋中部的暖舌已不复存在。截至10月7日的每周海温距平图显示,赤道太平洋中部多数地区的海温依旧保持为正距平。
IndexPreviousCurrentTemperature change
(2 weeks)
NINO3+0.6+0.30.3 °C cooler
NINO3.4+0.5+0.30.2 °C cooler
NINO4+0.6+0.6no change

2.gif
Pacific ocean sub-surface temperatures
太平洋次表层海温

Monthly sub-surface:
每月次表层海温:

The four-month sequence (to September) of sub-surface temperature anomalies in the equatorial Pacific Ocean shows that cooling has occurred across most of the sub-surface of the equatorial Pacific. A tongue of below-average temperature water has emerged in sub-surface of the central to eastern Pacific; water here is more than 2 °C cooler than usual.
截至9月的四个月赤道太平洋次表层海温距平图显示,赤道太平洋多数地区正距平幅度继续下降。而中太平洋及东太平洋部分地区出现了冷舌,部分地区的负距平幅度达到2°C以上。
3.gif
Weekly sub-surface:
每周次表层海温:

Sub-surface temperature anomalies in the equatorial Pacific have remained generally similar to those of two weeks ago. The map for the 5 days ending 7 October shows very weak warm anomalies 50 to 150 m beneath the surface of the central equatorial Pacific.     
赤道太平洋次表层海温距平程度与两周前大致相同。截10月7日的5日次表层海温距平图显示,赤道太平洋深度50-100米处的次表层海温保持着十分微弱的正距平。
4.gif
Southern Oscillation Index:
南方涛动指数:

The Southern Oscillation Index (SOI) has remained within neutral values during the past fortnight, though falling slightly. The latest (7 October) 30-day SOI value is +0.7.
过去两周内,南方涛动指数(SOI)虽仍旧保持中性,但有所下降;最新30天(截至10月7日)的SOI值为+0.7。
Sustained positive values of the SOI above +8 may indicate a La Niña event, while sustained negative values below −8 may indicate an El Niño event. Values of between about +8 and −8 generally indicate neutral conditions.
SOI持续在+8以上,可能意味着拉尼娜事件的发生;而SOI持续在-8以上,可能意味着厄尔尼诺事件的发生。 SOI在+8和-8之间维持的话,通常表示情况为中性。
5.png
Trade winds:
信风:

Trade winds for the 5 days ending 7 October shows westerly wind anomalies (weaker than average trade winds) are present in the western tropical Pacific, while winds are near-average across the central and eastern tropical Pacific.
截至10月7日的5日风力距平图显示,热带西太平洋的西风异常(信风减弱的标志)依旧保持,而热带中太平洋和热带东太平洋的信风则接近平均水平。
During La Niña events, there is a sustained strengthening of the trade winds across much of the tropical Pacific, while during El Niño events there is a sustained weakening of the trade winds.
在拉尼娜事件发生时,赤道太平洋地区的大部分地区的信风会持续增强;而在厄尔尼诺事件发生时,信风会持续减弱。
6.gif
Cloudiness near the dateline:
换日线附近云量:

Cloudiness near the Date Line has continued to fluctuate over the past two weeks, but has generally remained close to average values.
虽然在过去两周内换日线附近的云量持续波动,但在过去两周内依旧保持在平均水平附近。
Cloudiness along the equator, near the Date Line, is an important indicator of ENSO conditions, as it typically increases (negative OLR anomalies) near and to the east of the Date Line during an El Niño event and decreases (positive OLR anomalies) during a La Niña event.
换日线附近赤道地区云量是ENSO重要指标之一,在厄尔尼诺现象发生时,换日线附近及以东的云量通常会增加(OLR负距平),而在拉尼娜事件下则会减少(OLR正距平)。
7.gif
Climate Models:
气候模式:

The majority of international climate models surveyed by the Bureau indicate that SSTs in the equatorial Pacific Ocean are likely to remain in the neutral range for the remainder of 2012.
气象局的大部分气候模型均表示,赤道太平洋的海温将在2012年余下时间中保持在中性。
8.png
Indian Ocean Dipole:
印度洋偶极子:

The Indian Ocean Dipole (IOD) has continued to show a pattern typical of a positive IOD event, with cooler-than-average water off the coast of Sumatra and warmer than average waters in the western Indian Ocean. Values of the IOD index have weakened recently, but remain above positive thresholds, with the latest value at +0.6 for the week ending 7 October. A positive IOD event favours reduced spring rainfall over parts of southern, central, and northern Australia.
IOD继续保持着弱正位相,当IOD处于正位相时,苏门达腊附近的海温将呈现出负距平,而西印度洋则恰恰相反;在过去两个月内,IOD指数虽然有所减弱,但依旧保持在正位相的指标之上,截至10月7日的最新1周IOD指数为+0.6。当IOD处于正位相时,澳大利亚南部,中部及北部部分地区春季的降水将会偏少。
Recent forecasts from the POAMA model indicate the positive IOD event will decay over the latter half of spring, which is fairly typical of its natural seasonal cycle.
最近POAMA模型预测表明,IOD指数将在今年晚春时节逐步走低,该趋势与其季节性周期变化十分符合。
9.png
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发表于 2012-10-29 13:04 | 显示全部楼层
Pacific’s late retreat to neutral considered unusual
太平洋出人意料的于此时回归中性(2012.10.23)

Indicators of the El Niño Southern Oscillation (ENSO) continue to show neutral values. Temperatures in the tropical Pacific Ocean generally remain near average, after being close to El Niño thresholds in late winter. Atmospheric indicators such as the Southern Oscillation Index (SOI) and tropical cloud patterns have persisted at neutral levels through much of the southern winter and spring.
厄尔尼诺-南方涛动(ENSO)的指标继续保持中性。而热带太平洋的海温也继冬末保持在厄尔尼诺现象临界值附近后首度回归平均水平附近。而包括南方涛动指数(SOI)及热带云模式在内的大气指标则将在南半球的冬季以及春季的多数时间内保持中性。
The retreat from El Niño thresholds over the past several weeks is considered highly unusual, as September–October is typically the time when developing El Niño (or La Niña) events consolidate and mature. While some chance of El Niño remains, climate models surveyed by the Bureau of Meteorology suggest sea surface temperatures in the tropical Pacific Ocean are likely to be warmer than average, but stay within the neutral range for the rest of 2012 and early 2013.
在过去几周内厄尔尼诺的消退被认为非同寻常,因为9月和10月通常是厄尔尼诺现象(拉尼娜现象)的发展、成熟和强盛期。虽然发生厄尔尼诺现象的概率仍然存在,但澳洲气象局的气候模型表明,在2012年余下时间内以及2013年年初,热带太平洋海水表面温度虽然可能出现正距平,但总体上将保持在中性水平附近。
This year has seen a positive Indian Ocean Dipole (IOD) event, which partly explains the unusually dry conditions experienced over much of Australia in recent months. Outlooks from the Bureau’s climate model indicate the IOD is likely to return to neutral values over the next month. A positive IOD is typically associated with decreased winter and spring rainfall over parts of southern, central and northern Australia, but declines in both value and influence with the onset of the Australian monsoon at the start of summer.
印度洋偶极子(IOD)事件在今年时处于正位相,这能够在一定程度上解释澳大利亚许多地区近几个月以来的干旱。澳洲气象局的气候模型表明,IOD指数可能将于下个月回归中性。当IOD处于正位相时,澳大利亚南部部分地区,中部以及北部在冬季以及春季时的降水将呈现负距平,但随着夏季的到来,季风将重新对澳大利亚气候起主导地位。
Sea Surface Temperatures
海洋表面温度

Monthly sea surface temperatures:
每月海洋表面温度:

The sea-surface temperature (SST) anomaly map for September shows the magnitude of warm SST anomalies in the tropical Pacific Ocean has lessened over the past month. SSTs are now slightly above average across most of the tropical Pacific east of 150°E. The warmest anomalies are west of the Date Line, where a small area of water is more than 1 °C warmer than usual.
九月海水表面温度(SST)距平图显示,过去一个月中热带太平洋海温正距平幅度已明显下降;赤道太平洋的大部分地区海温依旧保持着正距平,其中以150°W以东到国际日期变更线之间的海域正距平幅度最大,部分地区出现了超过1℃的正距平。
IndexAugustSeptemberTemperature change
NINO3+0.8+0.60.2 °C cooler
NINO3.4+0.9+0.60.3 °C cooler
NINO4+0.6+0.6no change

1.gif
Weekly sea surface temperatures:
每周海洋表面温度:

Sea-surface temperature (SST) anomalies in the central tropical Pacific have warmed over the past two weeks. Warm anomalies are present along the equator between about 160°E and 140°W in the central Pacific (see the SST anomaly map for the week ending 21 October), although the pattern remains less organised than earlier in spring.
与两周前相比,热带太平洋中部以及东部的海水表面温度(SST)正距平幅度有所上升;正距平区沿着赤道在太平洋中部从160°E一直延伸至140°W(参见截至10月21日的每周海温距平图)。但其组织情况依旧逊于春初。
IndexPreviousCurrentTemperature change
(2 weeks)
NINO3+0.3+0.3no change
NINO3.4+0.3+0.50.2 °C warmer
NINO4+0.6+0.90.3 °C warmer

2.gif
Pacific ocean sub-surface temperatures
太平洋次表层海温

Monthly sub-surface:
每月次表层海温:

The four-month sequence (to 22 October) of sub-surface temperature anomalies in the equatorial Pacific Ocean shows a tongue of cooler-than-average water in sub-surface of the eastern equatorial Pacific. The central to eastern Pacific has cooled steadily since July; during October the coolest anomalies have been found in the eastern Pacific, where water is now more than 3 °C cooler than usual.
截至10月22日的四个月赤道太平洋次表层海温距平图显示,赤道西太平洋的次表层出现了冷舌。而中太平洋及东太平洋的次表层海温也继7月以来稳步下降,今年10月,负距平幅度最高的地区出现在赤道东太平洋,其负距平幅度达到了3°C以上。
3.gif
Weekly sub-surface:
每周次表层海温:

Sub-surface temperature anomalies in the equatorial Pacific have warmed when compared to two weeks ago. The map for the 5 days ending 21 October shows weak warm anomalies 50 to 150 m beneath the surface of the central and eastern equatorial Pacific.
与两周前相比,赤道太平洋的次表层海温有所回升。截至10月21日的5日次表层海温距平图显示,赤道中太平洋以及赤道东太平洋50-100米深处出现了微弱的正距平。
4.gif
Southern Oscillation Index:
南方涛动指数:

The Southern Oscillation Index (SOI) has remained within neutral values during the past fortnight. The latest (21 October) 30-day SOI value is +2.2.
过去两周内,南方涛动指数(SOI)保持中性。最新30天(截至10月21日)的SOI值为+2.2。
Sustained positive values of the SOI above +8 may indicate a La Niña event, while sustained negative values below −8 may indicate an El Niño event. Values of between about +8 and −8 generally indicate neutral conditions.
SOI持续在+8以上,可能意味着拉尼娜事件的发生;而SOI持续在-8以上,可能意味着厄尔尼诺事件的发生。 SOI在+8和-8之间维持的话,通常表示情况为中性。
5.png
Trade winds:
信风:

Over the past two weeks trade wind strength has returned to near-average values across the tropical Pacific. The anomaly map for the 5 days ending 21 October shows winds are near-average across the entire tropical Pacific.
在过去两周内,热带太平洋的信风强度已恢复至平均水平附近。截至10月7日的5日风力距平图显示,全热带太平洋的信风均保持在平均水平附近。
During La Niña events, there is a sustained strengthening of the trade winds across much of the tropical Pacific, while during El Niño events there is a sustained weakening of the trade winds.
在拉尼娜事件发生时,赤道太平洋地区的大部分地区的信风会持续增强;而在厄尔尼诺事件发生时,信风会持续减弱。
6.gif
Cloudiness near the dateline:
换日线附近云量:

Cloudiness near the Date Line has been slightly below average but has remained near neutral values over the past two weeks.
在过去两周内,换日线附近的云量虽低于平均水平,但仍保持在中性值附近。
Cloudiness along the equator, near the Date Line, is an important indicator of ENSO conditions, as it typically increases (negative OLR anomalies) near and to the east of the Date Line during an El Niño event and decreases (positive OLR anomalies) during a La Niña event.
换日线附近赤道地区云量是ENSO重要指标之一,在厄尔尼诺现象发生时,换日线附近及以东的云量通常会增加(OLR负距平),而在拉尼娜事件下则会减少(OLR正距平)。
7.gif
Climate Models:
气候模型:

International climate models surveyed by the Bureau indicate that SSTs in the equatorial Pacific Ocean are likely to remain in the neutral range for summer 2012–13.
气象局的气候模型表明,赤道太平洋的海温可能在2012-13年夏季时保持中性。
8.png
Indian Ocean Dipole:
印度洋偶极子:

The Indian Ocean Dipole (IOD) has continued to show a pattern typical of a positive IOD event, with cooler-than-average water off the coast of Sumatra and warmer than average waters in the western Indian Ocean. Values of the IOD index have dropped back from their peak several weeks ago, but remain above positive thresholds, with the latest value at +0.6 for the week ending 21 October. A positive IOD event favours reduced spring rainfall over parts of southern, central, and northern Australia.
印度洋偶极子(IOD)依旧保持为正位相-苏门答腊外海的海温出现负距平,而西印度洋的海温则出现正距平。虽然其与几周前相比有所下降,但仍然高过正位相的临界值。截至10月21日的最新1周IOD指数为+0.6。当IOD处于正位相时,澳大利亚南部,中部及北部部分地区春季时的降水将会偏少。
Recent forecasts from the POAMA model indicate the positive IOD event will decay within the next month, which is fairly typical of its natural seasonal cycle.
最近POAMA模型预测表明,IOD指数将在未来1个月内逐步走低,该趋势与其季节性周期变化十分符合。
9.png
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发表于 2012-11-8 01:38 | 显示全部楼层
太平洋和印度洋皆在中性狀態(7-11-2012)
Both Pacific and Indian oceans neutral

Indicators of the El Niño-Southern Oscillation remain at neutral levels. Atmospheric indicators such as the Southern Oscillation Index, trade winds, and tropical cloud patterns have persisted at neutral levels through much of the southern winter and spring. Temperatures in the tropical Pacific Ocean are generally warmer than normal in western and central areas, but are very close to their average values in the east.
厄爾尼諾-南方濤動的指標維持在中性水平. 在南半球的冬春的大部分時間以內, 各項大氣指標(例如南方濤動指數, 信風和熱帶雲層分佈)繼續維持在中性水平. 熱帶太平洋西部和中部的水溫大致高於正常, 但是東部的水溫十分接近平均值.
Climate models surveyed by the Bureau of Meteorology suggest sea surface temperatures in the tropical Pacific Ocean are likely to remain neutral, but warmer than average through until at least early 2013.
氣象局參考的氣候模式表示, 在2013年初或以前, 熱帶太平洋的海表溫度會維持中性, 但是會比平均值為暖.
This year has seen a positive Indian Ocean Dipole (IOD), which has contributed to below average rainfall across large parts of Australia during recent months. The positive IOD pattern in the Indian Ocean has declined over the last few weeks, and has now returned to neutral levels. This is typical behaviour of the IOD, which usually breaks down before the onset of the Australian monsoon.
今年出現的印度洋偶極子(IOD)正相事件, 是造成近月澳洲大部分地區雨量低於平均值的原因. 過去數星期, 印度洋的IOD正相狀態有所衰落, 而現在已經回落至中性水平. 這是IOD的典型表現-它通常會在澳洲的季風季節開始前終結.

Sea Surface Temperatures
海洋表層溫度
Monthly sea surface temperatures:
每月海洋表層溫度:
The sea-surface temperature (SST) anomaly map for October shows warm SST anomalies in the tropical Pacific Ocean have shifted westward when compared to the map for September. Between about 150°W and 160°E SSTs are slightly above average. The warmest anomalies remain west of the Date Line, where an area of water is more than 1 °C warmer than usual.
10月的海洋表層溫度(SST)距平圖顯示, 和9月的相比之下, 熱帶太平洋的SST正距平區已經往西面遷移, 西經150度-東經160度之間的SST稍為高於平均值. 最大的正距平區仍在換日線以西, 該區有一片SST高於平均值超過1度的區域.
IndexSeptemberOctoberTemperature change
NINO3+0.6+0.30.3 °C cooler
NINO3.4+0.6+0.40.2 °C cooler
NINO4+0.6+0.80.2 °C warmer
Baseline period 1961–1990.

sst_monthly.gif

Weekly sea surface temperatures:
每周海洋表層溫度:
When compared to two weeks ago, sea-surface temperature (SST) anomalies in the western tropical Pacific have warmed. Warm anomalies are present along the equator west of 150°W (see the SST anomaly map for the week ending 4 November). Isolated areas of warm anomalies are also present in the eastern equatorial Pacific. A significant area of warm SST anomalies has emerged around Australia’s northwest coast in recent weeks.
和兩星期前相比, 熱帶西太平洋的海洋表層溫度(SST)有所轉暖. 西經150度以東的赤道, 存在著正距平區(參見直到11月4日為止的每週SST距平圖). 赤道東太平洋附近存在著零碎的正距平區. 在最近數星期, 澳洲西北部沿岸出現了明顯的SST正距平區.
IndexPreviousCurrentTemperature change
(2 weeks)
NINO3+0.3+0.20.1 °C cooler
NINO3.4+0.5+0.40.1 °C cooler
NINO4+0.9+1.00.1 °C warmer
Baseline period 1961–1990.

sst_weekly.gif



Sub-surface Pacific Ocean temperatures
太平洋地區的次表層海溫
Monthly sub-surface:
每月次表層海溫:
The four-month sequence (to October) of sub-surface temperature anomalies in the equatorial Pacific Ocean shows an area of cooler-than-average water in sub-surface of the eastern equatorial Pacific. During October the coolest anomalies in the eastern Pacific were more than 3 °C cooler than usual.
直到10月為止、過去4個月的赤道太平洋次表層海溫距平序列指出, 在赤道東太平洋的次表層, 有著一片比平均值為冷的區域. 在10月期間, 東太平洋的最大負距平區的水溫, 低於正常值超過3度.
sub_surf_mon.gif

Weekly sub-surface:
每周次表層海溫:
The four-month sequence (to October) of sub-surface temperature anomalies in the equatorial Pacific Ocean shows an area of cooler-than-average water in sub-surface of the eastern equatorial Pacific. During October the coolest anomalies in the eastern Pacific were more than 3 °C cooler than usual.
赤道太平洋的次表層海溫距平, 和兩星期前的大致相近. 直到11月5日為止的5天距平圖顯示, 在赤道太平洋中部和東部、水深50-150米的次表層, 存在著正距平區.
sub_surf_tao.gif

Southern Oscillation Index:
南方濤動指數:
The Southern Oscillation Index (SOI) has remained within neutral values during the past fortnight. The latest (5 November) 30-day SOI value is +3.7.
過去兩星期, 南方濤動指數(SOI)維持在中性值以內. 最新(11月5日)的30天SOI數值是+3.7。
Sustained positive values of the SOI above +8 may indicate a La Niña event, while sustained negative values below −8 may indicate an El Niño event. Values of between about +8 and −8 generally indicate neutral conditions.
SOI持續在+8以上,可能意味著拉尼娜事件的發生;而SOI持續在-8以上,可能意味著厄爾尼諾事件的發生。SOI在+8和-8之間維持的話,通常表示情況為中性。
soi30.png

Trade winds:
信風:
Over the past two weeks trade winds have strengthened in the western tropical Pacific. The anomaly map for the 5 days ending 5 November shows trade winds are near-average across the central and eastern tropical Pacific, with weak easterly anomalies present in the western tropical Pacific.
過去兩星期, 熱帶西太平洋的信風有所增強. 直到11月5日為止的最新一幅5天風力距平圖顯示, 熱帶太平洋中部和東部的信風接近平均值, 而熱帶太平洋西部則出現了微弱的偏東距平.
During La Niña events, there is a sustained strengthening of the trade winds across much of the tropical Pacific, while during El Niño events there is a sustained weakening of the trade winds.
在拉尼娜事件下,赤道太平洋地區的大部分地區的信風會持續增強;而在厄爾尼諾事件下,信風會持續減弱。
sst_wind_anom_5day.large.gif


Cloudiness near the Date Line:
換日線附近的雲量:
Cloudiness near the Date Line has been slightly below average during the past two weeks, but has remained within neutral values.
過去兩星期, 換日線附近的雲量稍為低於平均值, 但仍然在中性數值以內.
Cloudiness along the equator, near the Date Line, is an important indicator of ENSO conditions, as it typically increases (negative OLR anomalies) near and to the east of the Date Line during an El Niño event and decreases (positive OLR anomalies) during a La Niña event.
換日線附近的赤道地區雲量,是ENSO狀況的重要指標之一,因為在厄爾尼諾事件下,換日線附近和以東的雲量通常會增加(OLR負距平),而在拉尼娜事件下則會減少(OLR正距平)。
region.ts.dateline.gif


Climate Models:
氣候模式:
International climate models surveyed by the Bureau indicate that SSTs in the equatorial Pacific Ocean are likely to remain in the neutral range for the austral summer 2012–13.
本局參考的國際氣候模式指出,在2012-2013年度、南半球的夏季期間, 赤道太平洋的SST會維持在中性範圍以內.
poama.nino34.small.png


Indian Ocean Dipole:
印度洋偶極子:
The positive Indian Ocean Dipole (IOD) event which has been present during recent months has concluded. Values of the IOD index have returned to neutral over recent weeks; this is a typical progression as IOD events usually break down before the onset of the Australian monsoon. The latest IOD index value was +0.0 for the week ending 4 November.
過去數月的印度洋偶極子(IOD)正相事件已經結束. 在過去數星期, IOD指數數值已回落至中性水平; 這是正常的發展趨勢, 因為IOD事件通常會在澳洲季風季節以前衰落. 直到11月4日為止的一週, 最新的IOD指數數值為+0.0.
Recent forecasts from the POAMA model indicate the IOD is expected to remain neutral for the summer and following autumn.
最近的POAMA預報模式指出, 在南半球的夏季和秋季期間, IOD會維持中性.
poama.iod.small.png
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金玉良言

发表于 2012-11-21 01:08 | 显示全部楼层
太平洋或會維持在ENSO中性狀態(20-11-2012)
Pacific Ocean likely to remain ENSO neutral
El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO) indicators in the tropical Pacific remain at neutral levels. As ENSO events are usually well established by the end of the southern spring, the current neutral pattern is likely to persist at least until the end of the year.
熱帶太平洋的厄爾尼諾-南方濤動(ENSO)指標維持在中性水平. 由於ENSO事件通常是在南半球的春季完結前建立好, 目前的中性形態, 至少會維持至今年年末.
Although being below El Niño levels, tropical Pacific Ocean temperatures remain warmer than average. Atmospheric indicators, such as the Southern Oscillation Index, trade winds and tropical cloud patterns, have all remained at neutral levels through the winter and spring.
雖然熱帶太平洋的水溫低於厄爾尼諾的水平, 但是仍然比平均值為暖. 在南半球的冬春兩季期間, 各項大氣指標(例如南方濤動指數, 信風和熱帶雲層分佈)全部維持在中性水平.
Climate models surveyed by the Bureau of Meteorology suggest tropical Pacific Ocean temperatures are likely to remain neutral, but warmer than average, until at least early 2013.
氣象局參考的氣候模式表示, 在2013年初或以前, 熱帶太平洋的水溫會維持中性, 但是會比平均值為暖.
After reaching positive levels during spring, the Indian Ocean Dipole (IOD) is following its normal cycle of decay approaching the end of the year and is currently near neutral. The IOD has limited influence upon Australian climate over summer and autumn.
隨著印度洋偶極子(IOD)在春季達到正值, 它將會回復其正常的循環--在年末逐漸衰落; 現時IOD的數值接近中性. IOD對澳洲的夏季和秋季的影響有限.

Sea Surface Temperatures
海洋表層溫度
Monthly sea surface temperatures:
每月海洋表層溫度:
The sea-surface temperature (SST) anomaly map for October shows warm SST anomalies in the tropical Pacific Ocean have shifted westward when compared to the map for September. Between about 150°W and 160°E SSTs are slightly above average. The warmest anomalies remain west of the Date Line, where an area of water is more than 1 °C warmer than usual.
10月的海洋表層溫度(SST)距平圖顯示, 和9月的相比之下, 熱帶太平洋的SST正距平區已經往西面遷移. 西經150度-東經160度之間的SST稍為高於平均值. 最大的正距平區仍在換日線以西, 該區有一片SST高於平均值超過1度的區域.
IndexSeptemberOctoberTemperature change
NINO3+0.6+0.30.3 °C cooler
NINO3.4+0.6+0.40.2 °C cooler
NINO4+0.6+0.80.2 °C warmer

Baseline period 1961–1990.

sst_monthly.gif

Weekly sea surface temperatures:
每周海洋表層溫度:
When compared to two weeks ago, the pattern of sea-surface temperature (SST) anomalies in the tropical Pacific remains relatively similar, although the extent of warm anomalies present in the tropical western Pacific has decreased. Warm anomalies remain along the western half of the Pacific (see the SST anomaly map below, for the week ending 18 November). Anomalies in the eastern half of the tropical Pacific are generally close to average. Warm SST anomalies are also still evident around the western half of Australia, and in the south Pacific, near the South Pacific Convergence Zone.
和兩星期前相比, 熱帶太平洋的海洋表層溫度(SST)距平的形態大致相近, 儘管熱帶西太平洋的正距平幅度有所減少. 太平洋西半部繼續出現正距平(參照直到11月4日為止的每週SST距平圖, 如下); 而東半部的距平大致接近正常. 澳洲西部和南太平洋、接近南太平洋輻合區的水域, 仍然有著明顯的SST正距平.
IndexPreviousCurrentTemperature change
(2 weeks)
NINO3+0.2+0.2no change
NINO3.4+0.4+0.4no change
NINO4+1.0+0.90.1 °C cooler

Baseline period 1961–1990.

sst_weekly.gif

Sub-surface Pacific Ocean temperatures
太平洋地區的次表層海溫
Monthly sub-surface:
每月次表層海溫:
The four-month sequence (to 19 November) of sub-surface temperature anomalies in the equatorial Pacific Ocean shows an area of cooler-than-average water beneath the surface of the eastern equatorial Pacific. The anomalies reach more than 3 °C below average in the eastern Pacific. Further west, waters are slightly warmer than average in the top 50 m of water.
直到11月19日為止、過去4個月的赤道太平洋次表層海溫距平序列指出, 赤道太平洋東部的表層之下, 有一片負距平的區域. 東太平洋的負距平幅度已經超過3度. 而在更為偏西、水深不到50米的區域, 其水溫稍為高於平均值.
sub_surf_mon.gif

Weekly sub-surface:
每周次表層海溫:
Sub-surface temperature anomalies in the equatorial Pacific remain generally similar to those of two weeks ago. The map for the 5 days ending 18 November shows warm anomalies 50 to 150 m beneath the surface of the central and eastern equatorial Pacific.
赤道太平洋的次表層海溫距平, 和兩星期前的大致相近. 直到11月18日為止的5天距平圖顯示, 在赤道太平洋中部和東部、表層以下約50至150米的水域, 存在著正距平的區域.
sub_surf_tao.gif

Southern Oscillation Index:
南方濤動指數:
The Southern Oscillation Index (SOI) has remained within neutral values during the past fortnight. The latest (18 November) 30-day SOI value is +5.1.
過去兩星期, 南方濤動指數(SOI)維持在中性值以內. 最新(11月18日)的30天SOI數值是+5.1。
Sustained positive values of the SOI above +8 may indicate a La Niña event, while sustained negative values below −8 may indicate an El Niño event. Values of between about +8 and −8 generally indicate neutral conditions.
SOI持續在+8以上,可能意味著拉尼娜事件的發生;而SOI持續在-8以上,可能意味著厄爾尼諾事件的發生。SOI在+8和-8之間維持的話,通常表示情況為中性。
soi30.png

Trade winds:
信風:
The anomaly map for the 5 days ending 18 November shows trade winds are near-average across the entire tropical Pacific.
直到11月18日為止的最新一幅5天風力距平圖顯示, 整個熱帶太平洋的信風皆是接近正常.
During La Niña events, there is a sustained strengthening of the trade winds across much of the tropical Pacific, while during El Niño events there is a sustained weakening of the trade winds.
在拉尼娜事件下,赤道太平洋地區的大部分地區的信風會持續增強;而在厄爾尼諾事件下,信風會持續減弱。
sst_wind_anom_5day.large.gif


Cloudiness near the Date Line:
換日線附近的雲量:
Cloudiness near the Date Line has been close to average during the past two weeks.
過去兩星期, 換日線附近的雲量水平接近平均值.
Cloudiness along the equator, near the Date Line, is an important indicator of ENSO conditions, as it typically increases (negative OLR anomalies) near and to the east of the Date Line during an El Niño event and decreases (positive OLR anomalies) during a La Niña event.
換日線附近的赤道地區雲量,是ENSO狀況的重要指標之一,因為在厄爾尼諾事件下,換日線附近和以東的雲量通常會增加(OLR負距平),而在拉尼娜事件下則會減少(OLR正距平)。
region.ts.dateline.gif


Climate Models:
氣候模式:
International climate models surveyed by the Bureau indicate that SSTs in the equatorial Pacific Ocean are expected to remain in the neutral range for the austral summer 2012–13 and into the following autumn.
本局參考的國際氣候模式指出,在2012-2013年度澳洲的夏季, 以及接續的秋季, 赤道太平洋的SST會維持在中性範圍以內.
poama.nino34.small.png


Indian Ocean Dipole:
印度洋偶極子:
The Indian Ocean Dipole (IOD) is currently neutral, with the latest IOD index value at +0.4°C for the week ending 18 November. The IOD typically has limited influence on Australia during the summer.
現時印度洋偶極子(IOD)為中性. 直到11月18日為止的一週, 最新的IOD指數數值為+0.4. 一般來說, IOD對澳洲夏季的影響有限.
poama.iod.small.png
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金玉良言

发表于 2012-12-21 01:25 | 显示全部楼层
Tropical Pacific neutral for remainder of summer
在南半球夏季的餘下時間, 熱帶太平洋會維持中性(18-12-2012)
The tropical Pacific Ocean remains neutral - neither El Niño nor La Niña. The central to eastern Pacific has cooled somewhat over the past month, with sea surface temperatures (SSTs) now close to their long-term average. Atmospheric indicators of ENSO, such as the Southern Oscillation Index (SOI), trade winds and cloudiness near the Date Line have shown some fluctuations recently, but have also continued at neutral levels. Further falls are expected in the SOI over the coming days, as a result of the tropical weather system which spawned TC Evan. Large fluctuations in the SOI over summer due to tropical weather systems are not uncommon.
熱帶太平洋繼續維持中性--即不是厄爾尼諾或拉尼娜狀態. 過去一個月, 太平洋中部-東部稍為轉冷, 現時其海洋表層溫度(SSTs)已經接近長期平均值. 最近, 各項ENSO的大氣指標(例如南方濤動指數(SOI), 信風和換日線附近的雲量)稍有波動, 但是它們仍然在中性的水平. 本局預期在未來一段日子, SOI會持續下跌. 這是由產生熱帶氣旋\"伊雲\"的熱帶天氣系統所致. 受到熱帶天氣系統的影響, 夏季期間SOI出現的大幅波動, 並非異常的現象.
Climate models surveyed by the Bureau of Meteorology indicate that the tropical Pacific is likely to remain ENSO neutral through the southern hemisphere summer. This means that in contrast to the two prior summers, Australian rainfall and temperatures are unlikely to be strongly influenced by ENSO. Given current conditions and outlooks, this will be the first ENSO-neutral summer since 2005–06.
氣象局參考的氣候模式表示, 在南半球的夏季以內, 熱帶太平洋會維持在ENSO中性狀態. 這意味著, 和過去兩年的夏季不同, 今年澳洲的夏季將不會受到ENSO的嚴重影響. 基於現在的情況和展望, 這將會是2005-2006年度以來首個ENSO中性的夏季.
The influence of the Indian Ocean Dipole (IOD) on Australian rainfall is limited during summer and autumn, though near-record ocean temperatures off the northwest Australian coast may have at least a local influence.
雖然澳洲西北部沿海出現的、接近歷史鋒值的海溫或會對該區有一定的影響, 但是在夏季和秋季期間, 印度洋偶極子(IOD)對澳洲降水的影響有限.

Sea Surface Temperatures
海洋表層溫度
Monthly sea surface temperatures:
每月海洋表層溫度:
When compared to that for the previous month, the sea-surface temperature (SST) anomaly map for November shows the focus of warm SST anomalies in the tropical Pacific Ocean has shifted westward. SSTs are slightly above average in the western half of the equatorial Pacific, while in the east anomalies have all but disappeared. The warmest anomalies remain west of the Date Line, where an area of water is more than 1 °C warmer than usual. Warm SST anomalies also remain around Australia’s northwest and western coast.
11月的海洋表層溫度(SST)距平圖顯示, 和上月相比之下, 熱帶中太平洋的SST暖距平中心, 已經有所西移. 赤道太平洋的西半部的SST稍為高於平均值, 而東半部的距平區已完全消失. 最大的暖距平區仍在換日線以西, 其水溫高於平均值超過1度. 在澳洲西北部和西部海岸, 仍然存在著SST暖距平.
IndexOctoberNovemberTemperature change
NINO3+0.3+0.20.1 °C cooler
NINO3.4+0.4+0.20.1 °C cooler
NINO4+0.8+0.8no change

Baseline period 1961–1990.

sst_monthly.gif

[/table]
Weekly sea surface temperatures:
每周海洋表層溫度:
SST anomalies in the tropical Pacific have changed little over the past fortnight. Very weak warm anomalies remain along the equator west of about 170°W (see the SST anomaly map for the week ending 16 December below). SSTs in the central and eastern tropical Pacific are generally close to average, although some small areas of cool water are present adjacent to the South American coast. Warm SST anomalies remain in the region to Australia’s northwest, while those in the south Pacific have weakened compared to two weeks ago.
過去兩星期, 熱帶太平洋的SST距平有輕微的轉變. 在西經約170度以西的赤道上, 仍然有著十分微弱的暖距平(詳見直到12月16日為止的每週SST距平圖, 如下). 儘管南美洲沿岸附近出現了零碎的冷水區, 熱帶太平洋中部和東部的SST大致接近正常. 澳洲西北部仍然有著SST暖距平區, 而南太平洋的SST暖距平區, 則較兩星期前為弱.
[table=100%]IndexPreviousCurrentTemperature change
(2 weeks)NINO3+0.1+0.00.1 °C coolerNINO3.4+0.3+0.10.2 °C coolerNINO4+0.6+0.6no change
Baseline period 1961–1990.
sst_weekly.gif

Sub-surface Pacific Ocean temperatures
太平洋地區的次表層海溫
Monthly sub-surface:
每月次表層海溫:
The four-month sequence of sub-surface temperature anomalies (to November) shows water across the entire equatorial Pacific Ocean was cooler than average at about 150 meters of depth. The anomalies reached more than 2 °C below average in places, while closer to the surface weak warm anomalies were present.
直到11月為止、過去4個月的赤道太平洋次表層海溫距平序列指出, 整個赤道太平洋、水深約150米的水域, 皆較平均值為冷. 該區的負距平已經超過2度, 而在接近表層的水域, 則出現了弱暖距平.
sub_surf_mon.gif

Weekly sub-surface:
每周次表層海溫:
Compared to two weeks ago, sub-surface temperature anomalies in the eastern equatorial Pacific have cooled. The map for the 5 days ending 16 December shows very weak warm anomalies 50 to 150 m beneath the surface of the central equatorial Pacific, while weak cool anomalies are present in the eastern and western equatorial Pacific at greater depth, and also close to the surface in the far eastern equatorial Pacific.
和兩星期前相比, 赤道東太平洋的次表層海溫距平有所轉冷. 直到12月16日為止的5天距平圖顯示, 在赤道中太平洋表層以下50-150米的水域, 有著十分微弱的暖距平, 同時, 在赤道太平洋東部和西部以下、更深的次表層水域, 以及遠東赤道太平洋、接近表層的水域, 出現了微弱的冷距平.
sub_surf_tao.gif

Southern Oscillation Index:
南方濤動指數:
The Southern Oscillation Index (SOI) has dropped sharply over the past week and a half, but remains within neutral values. The latest (16 December) 30-day SOI value is −7.5. This is primarily due to a low pressure trough which formed near Tahiti in the second week of December, and which spawned several tropical lows including TC Evan. During the southern hemisphere summer, it is not unusual to have large deviations of the SOI on a weekly scale due to transient weather systems.
過去1.5星期, 南方濤動指數(SOI)急劇下跌, 但是仍在中性範圍. 最新(12月16日)的30天SOI數值是-7.5。這主要是因為在12月的第二週, 大溪地附近有一低壓槽形成, 其中生成了數個熱帶低壓(包括熱帶氣旋\"伊雲\"). 在南半球的夏季期間, 由於有短期性的天氣系統存在, SOI在一週內出現大幅偏差的情況並非不正常.
Sustained positive values of the SOI above +8 may indicate a La Niña event, while sustained negative values below −8 may indicate an El Niño event. Values of between about +8 and −8 generally indicate neutral conditions.
SOI持續在+8以上,可能意味著拉尼娜事件的發生;而SOI持續在-8以上,可能意味著厄爾尼諾事件的發生。SOI在+8和-8之間維持的話,通常表示情況為中性。
soi30.png

Trade winds:
信風:
The anomaly map for the 5 days ending 16 December shows trade winds are near average across the eastern half of the tropical Pacific and weaker than average across the western half; westerly winds are present near the equator over the far western tropical Pacific.
直到11月18日為止的最新一幅5天風力距平圖顯示, 熱帶太平洋東半部的信風接近正常, 而西半部則較平均值為弱; 在遠西太平洋、接近赤道的區域, 出現了偏西信風.
During La Niña events, there is a sustained strengthening of the trade winds across much of the tropical Pacific, while during El Niño events there is a sustained weakening of the trade winds.
在拉尼娜事件下,赤道太平洋地區的大部分地區的信風會持續增強;而在厄爾尼諾事件下,信風會持續減弱。
sst_wind_anom_5day.large.gif


Cloudiness near the Date Line:
換日線附近的雲量:
During the past two weeks, cloudiness near the Date Line was somewhat below average before becoming slightly above average.
過去兩星期, 換日線附近的雲量稍為低於平均值, 其後轉為稍高於平均值.
Cloudiness along the equator, near the Date Line, is an important indicator of ENSO conditions, as it typically increases (negative OLR anomalies) near and to the east of the Date Line during an El Niño event and decreases (positive OLR anomalies) during a La Niña event.
換日線附近的赤道地區雲量,是ENSO狀況的重要指標之一,因為在厄爾尼諾事件下,換日線附近和以東的雲量通常會增加(OLR負距平),而在拉尼娜事件下則會減少(OLR正距平)。
region.ts.dateline.gif


Climate Models:
氣候模式:
International climate models surveyed by the Bureau indicate that SSTs in the equatorial Pacific Ocean are expected to remain in the neutral range for the austral summer 2012–13 and into the following autumn.
本局參考的國際氣候模式指出,在2012-2013年度澳洲的夏季, 以及接續的秋季, 赤道太平洋的SST會維持在中性範圍以內.
poama.nino34.small.png


Indian Ocean Dipole:
印度洋偶極子:
The Indian Ocean Dipole (IOD) is currently neutral, with the latest IOD index value at +0.4°C for the week ending 16 December. The IOD typically has limited influence on Australia during the summer.
現時印度洋偶極子(IOD)為中性. 直到12月16日為止的一週, 最新的IOD指數數值為+0.4度. 一般來說, IOD對澳洲夏季的影響有限.
poama.iod.small.png
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