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[定期翻译] ENSO监测翻译

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发表于 2013-1-13 15:39 | 显示全部楼层
ENSO-neutral conditions persist in the tropical Pacific
热带太平洋ENSO中性条件持续

Issued on Thursday 3 January 2013 |
2013年1月3日星期四公布

Neutral conditions (neither El Niño nor La Niña) persist in the tropical Pacific Ocean. Climate models surveyed by the Bureau of Meteorology indicate that the tropical Pacific is likely to remain neutral at least until the southern hemisphere autumn.
热带太平洋中性条件(既不是厄尔尼诺也不是拉尼娜)持续。气象局调查的气候模型表明,热带太平洋地区中性条件很可能至少要持续到南半球的秋季。
Climate indicators of the El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO) remain within neutral values. Sea surface temperatures in the tropical Pacific are generally close to the long-term average. Atmospheric indicators, such as the Southern Oscillation Index (SOI), trade winds and cloudiness near the Date Line have fluctuated in recent weeks, but generally remained within the neutral range. The SOI is expected to ease further towards zero over the coming fortnight as the influence of the tropical weather system which spawned TC Evan is removed from the 30-day average. Large fluctuations in the SOI over summer due to tropical weather systems are not uncommon.
厄尔尼诺 - 南方涛动(ENSO)的气候指标维持在中性值。热带太平洋的海表温度大致接近长期平均水平。最近几个星期的大气指标如南方涛动指数(SOI)、信风和换日线附近的云量有所波动,但大致维持在中性范围内。 SOI预计在未来两个星期将朝零值方向进一步下降,同时在30天的平均值中应剔除由于热带天气系统影响产生TC Evan因素。由于热带天气系统影响,夏季SOI大波动的情况经常会遇见。
The influence of the Indian Ocean Dipole (IOD) on Australian rainfall is limited during the southern summer.
在南半球的夏季期间,印度洋偶极子(IOD)对澳大利亚降雨影响是有限的。

Monthly sea surface temperatures:
每月海表温度:
When compared to that for the previous month, the sea-surface temperature (SST) anomaly map for November shows the focus of warm SST anomalies in the tropical Pacific Ocean has shifted westward. SSTs are slightly above average in the western half of the equatorial Pacific, while in the east anomalies have all but disappeared. The warmest anomalies remain west of the Date Line, where an area of water is more than 1 °C warmer than usual. Warm SST anomalies also remain around Australia’s northwest and western coast.
相比于上一个月,11月的海表温度(SST)距平图显示了热带太平洋SST暖距平的重点西移。 赤道太平洋西半部的SSTs 略高于平均水平,而东部地区的距平已全部消失。最暖的距平仍然在日变线以西,其中有些水域温暖超过正常1°C。SST暖距平也维持在澳大利亚西北和西部海岸附近。
sst_monthly.gif
基准期为1961–1990.
指数10月11月温度变化
NINO3+0.3+0.2下降0.1 °C
NINO3.4+0.4+0.2下降0.1 °C
NINO4+0.8+0.8无变化



Weekly sea surface temperatures:
每周海表温度:
The surface of the tropical Pacific has cooled during the past fortnight, although anomalies in the very far west of the tropical Pacific have remained similar to those of two weeks ago. Very weak warm anomalies remain along the equator west of about 170°W (see the SST anomaly map for the week ending 30 December below). Warmer anomalies surround the western half of Australia, with substantial warming of this water off the southwest coast having occurred over the past fortnight. SSTs in the central and eastern tropical Pacific are generally close to average, although some small areas of cool water are present off the South American coast.
在过去的两个星期,虽然热带太平洋遥远西部的距平仍然与两个星期前的情况相似,但热带太平洋表面温度已有所下降。沿赤道约170°W以西仍维持极弱的暖距平(参见下面截止12月30日的一周SST距平图)。较暖的距平围绕澳大利亚西半部,西南海岸的该水域在过去两周已出现大幅升温。热带太平洋中部和东部的SSTs大致接近平均水平,但南美海岸也有一些小范围的冷水区。
sst_weekly_thumb.gif
基准期为1961–1990.
指数上一时期当前时期温度变化(2 周)
NINO3+0.0−0.2下降0.2 °C
NINO3.4+0.1−0.1下降0.2 °C
NINO4+0.6+0.3下降0.3 °C




Monthly sub-surface:
每月次表面:

The four-month sequence of sub-surface temperature anomalies (to December) shows a significant volume of cooler-than-average water present below the surface of the eastern equatorial Pacific Ocean during December. The anomalies reached more than 3 °C at a depth of around 150 m. Very weak shallow warm anomalies remain west of the Date Line.

截止12月的4个月次表层温度距平显示,12月赤道东太平洋次表面温度负距平的水域体积非常明显。150米深度的地方距平达到大约3°C以上。日变线以西残留的正距平非常弱。


Weekly sub-surface:
每周次表面:


Compared to two weeks ago, sub-surface temperature anomalies in the eastern equatorial Pacific have cooled slightly. The map for the 5 days ending 1 January shows warm anomalies 100 to 150 m beneath the surface of the central equatorial Pacific, while cool anomalies are present between the surface and 150 m in the eastern equatorial Pacific. Weaker cool anomalies are also present in the western equatorial Pacific at greater depth.
与两个星期前相比,赤道东太平洋次表面温度距平略有下降。截至1月1日5天的距平图显示,赤道太平洋中部100至150米的表面之下为正距平,而在赤道东太平洋表面和150米深度之间为负距平。赤道西太平洋更深的地方也出现负距平。


Southern Oscillation Index:
南方涛动指数:

The Southern Oscillation Index (SOI) has risen slightly over the past week, following the recent sharp decline, returning to neutral values. The latest (1 January) 30-day SOI value is −6.7. The SOI is expected to ease further towards zero over the coming fortnight as the influence of the tropical weather system which spawned TC Evan is removed from the 30-day average. Large fluctuations in the SOI over summer due to tropical weather systems are not uncommon.
南方涛动指数(SOI)继近期大幅下跌后,在过去一周略有上升,返回到中性值。截止1月1日30天的SOI值是-6.7。 SOI预计将朝零方向进一步下降同时在30天的平均值中应剔除由于热带天气系统影响产生TC Evan的因素。由于热带天气系统影响,夏季SOI大波动的情况经常会遇见。Sustained positive values of the SOI above +8 may indicate a La Niña event, while sustained negative values below −8 may indicate an El Niño event. Values of between about +8 and −8 generally indicate neutral conditions.


SOI持续正值高于+8以上可能表明拉尼娜事件,而持续负值低于-8表明厄尔尼诺事件。+8和-8值之间通常表明中性条件。


Trade winds:
信风:
The anomaly map for the 5 days ending 1 January shows trade winds are near average across the eastern half of the tropical Pacific and stronger than average across the western half.


截至1月1日5天的距平图显示,热带太平洋东半部的信风接近平均水平,整个西半部更强,高于平均水平。
During La Niña events, there is a sustained strengthening of the trade winds across much of the tropical Pacific, while during El Niño events there is a sustained weakening of the trade winds.
拉尼娜事件期间,赤道太平洋大部分地区的信风持续加强,而厄尔尼诺事件期间,信风会持续减弱。

Cloudiness near the Date Line:
换日线附近的云量:
Cloudiness near the Date Line has been slightly below average over the past two weeks.
在过去的两周,换日线附近的云量已略低于平均水平。
Cloudiness along the equator, near the Date Line, is an important indicator of ENSO conditions, as it typically increases (negative OLR anomalies) near and to the east of the Date Line during an El Niño event and decreases (positive OLR anomalies) during a La Niña event.
换日线附近沿赤道的云量是ENSO条件的一个重要指标,因为厄尔尼诺事件期间,日变线以东附近的云量通常会增加(OLR距平),拉尼娜事件期间,通常有一个降低的过程(OLR距平)。


Climate Models:
气候模式:
International climate models surveyed by the Bureau indicate that SSTs in the equatorial Pacific Ocean are expected to remain in the neutral at least until the southern hemisphere autumn.
由本局调查的国际气候模型预测,赤道太平洋的SSTs预计将维持在中性,至少维持到南半球的秋季。


Indian Ocean Dipole:
印度洋偶极子:

The Indian Ocean Dipole (IOD) is currently neutral, with the latest IOD index value at 0.0°C for the week ending 30 December. The IOD typically has limited influence on Australia during the summer.
印度洋偶极子(IOD)目前为中性,截止12月30日一周的最新IOD指数值为0.0°C。在夏季期间, IOD通常对澳大利亚的影响有限。
本帖所引用的地图资料以中华人民共和国官方公布的为准
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发表于 2013-2-24 21:49 | 显示全部楼层
Pacific eases further away from El Niño thresholds
太平洋进一步远离厄尔尼诺事件临界值(2013.02.12)

The tropical Pacific remains El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO) neutral. Climate models and current observations indicate this neutral state is likely to continue well into the southern hemisphere autumn.
目前热带太平洋仍处于厄尔尼诺-南方涛动现象中性。气候模型及目前的观测结果表明,中性状态可能将持续至南半球的秋季。
Atmospheric indicators of ENSO, such as the Southern Oscillation Index (SOI), trade winds, and tropical cloud patterns have persisted at neutral levels since mid to late 2012. Tropical Pacific Ocean temperatures have remained steady over the last fortnight after several months of gradual cooling. This is consistent with climate model forecasts suggesting the current neutral ENSO state is likely to persist for some months.
自2012年中后期以来,包括南方涛动指数(SOI),信风及热带地区云量在内的ENSO大气指标均保持为中性状态。在历经了数月的下降之后,热带太平洋的温度在过去两周内趋于稳定,这与气候模型未来数月仍将维持ENSO中性状态的结论相符合。
The Indian Ocean Dipole (IOD) has little influence upon Australia’s climate over summer and autumn.
印度洋偶极子(IOD)将对澳大利亚夏季及秋季的气候造成一定影响。
Sea Surface Temperatures
海洋表面温度

Monthly sea surface temperatures:
每月海洋表面温度:

When compared to the previous month, the sea-surface temperature (SST) anomaly map for January shows the emergence of cool anomalies along the equator in the central and eastern tropical Pacific Ocean. Weak warm anomalies remain in the western tropical Pacific, while warm SST anomalies were also present around Australia\'s northwest and southern coasts where surface waters are more than 1 °C warmer than average.
一月海水表面温度(SST)距平图显示,与上月相比,赤道太平洋东部及中部出现了冷距平,而热带西太平洋则保持着微弱的暖距平,同时澳大利亚西北部及南部近海的海水表面温度也出现了超过1℃的暖距平。
IndexDecemberJanuaryTemperature change
NINO3+0.1-0.40.5 °C cooler
NINO3.4+0.1+0.1no change
NINO4+0.5+0.10.4 °C cooler

1.gif
Weekly sea surface temperatures:
每周海洋表面温度:

Sea surface temperature anomalies in the tropical Pacific remained generally similar to those of two weeks ago. Cool anomalies have been evident along the equator in the eastern half of the Pacific for a number of weeks (see the SST anomaly map for the week ending 10 February below). Warm anomalies to Australia\'s northwest and over the south of the Maritime Continent have strengthened over the past fortnight, broadly exceeding 1 °C warmer than average. Warm anomalies also remain along the southern coastline of Australia.
热带太平洋的海水表面温度(SST)距平幅度与两周前大致相同;截至2月10日的每周海温距平图显示,赤道太平洋的东半部依旧存在较明显的冷距平,而澳大利亚西北部及南部近海的暖距平幅度在过去两周内则进一步加大,许多地区出现了超过1℃的暖距平。同时澳大利亚南部近海的暖距平区也依然存在。
IndexPreviousCurrentTemperature change
(2 weeks)
NINO3−0.5−0.40.1 °C cooler
NINO3.4−0.3−0.3no change
NINO4+0.1+0.10.1 °C cooler

2.gif
Pacific ocean sub-surface temperatures
太平洋次表层海温

Monthly sub-surface:
每月次表层海温:

The four-month sequence of sub-surface temperature anomalies (to the end of January) shows persistence of cool anomalies in the sub-surface of the eastern equatorial Pacific. A large volume of cooler-than-average water has been stable here since December; much of this water was more than 4 °C cooler than average during January.
截至一月底的四个月赤道太平洋次表层海温距平图显示,赤道东太平洋出现的冷距平区依旧存在。自去年12月起,该处便出现了大量冷距平海水,一月该处出现了大面积超过4℃的冷距平区。
3.gif
Weekly sub-surface:
每周次表层海温:

The map for the 5 days ending 10 February shows sub-surface waters across the equatorial Pacific are generally warmer than average in the west and cooler than average in the east. Anomalies have strengthened in both areas over the past two weeks.
截至2月10日的5日次表层海温距平图显示,赤道太平洋的海温距平呈现出西正东负的局面,此种局面在过去两周内仍继续加强。
4.gif
Southern Oscillation Index:
南方涛动指数:

The Southern Oscillation Index (SOI) has dropped over the past two weeks, remaining within neutral values. The latest (10 February) 30-day SOI value is −7.5.
过去两周内,南方涛动指数(SOI)有所下降并回归中性;最新30天(截至2月10日)的SOI值为+7.5。
Sustained positive values of the SOI above +8 may indicate a La Niña event, while sustained negative values below −8 may indicate an El Niño event. Values of between about +8 and −8 generally indicate neutral conditions.
SOI持续在+8以上,可能意味着拉尼娜事件的发生;而SOI持续在-8以上,可能意味着厄尔尼诺事件的发生。 SOI在+8和-8之间维持的话,通常表示情况为中性。
5.png
Trade winds:
信风:

The anomaly map for the 5 days ending 10 February shows trade winds are near average across the tropical Pacific.
截至2月10日的5日风力距平图显示,热带太平洋的信风保持在平均水平附近。
During La Niña events, there is a sustained strengthening of the trade winds across much of the tropical Pacific, while during El Niño events there is a sustained weakening of the trade winds.
在拉尼娜事件发生时,赤道太平洋地区的大部分地区的信风会持续增强;而在厄尔尼诺事件发生时,信风会持续减弱。
6.gif
Cloudiness near the dateline:
换日线附近云量:

Cloudiness near the Date Line has remained close to average over the past two weeks.
过去两周内,换日线附近云量在平均水平上下波动。
Cloudiness along the equator, near the Date Line, is an important indicator of ENSO conditions, as it typically increases (negative OLR anomalies) near and to the east of the Date Line during an El Niño event and decreases (positive OLR anomalies) during a La Niña event.
换日线附近赤道地区云量是ENSO重要指标之一,在厄尔尼诺现象发生时,换日线附近及以东的云量通常会增加(OLR负距平),而在拉尼娜事件下则会减少(OLR正距平)。
7.gif
Climate Models:
气候模式:

International climate models surveyed by the Bureau indicate that SSTs in the equatorial Pacific Ocean are expected to remain neutral well into the southern hemisphere autumn.
气象局的全球模式表示,赤道太平洋的海水表面温度将在南半球秋天到来之前保持中性。
8.png
Indian Ocean Dipole:
印度洋偶极子:

The Indian Ocean Dipole (IOD) is currently neutral, with the latest IOD index value at −0.1°C for the week ending 10 February. The IOD typically has limited influence on Australia during summer and autumn.
印度洋偶极子(IOD)目前处于中性,截至2月10日的最新1周IOD指数为-0.1。通常情况下印度洋偶极子将对澳大利亚夏季及秋季的气候造成一定影响。
9.png
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发表于 2013-3-5 13:02 | 显示全部楼层
A neutral ENSO state likely for the next season
ENSO中性状态或将持续至下个季节(2013.02.26)

Atmospheric and oceanic indicators of the El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO), such as the Southern Oscillation Index (SOI), trade winds and ocean temperatures have generally remained in the neutral range since mid to late 2012.
自2012年中后期以来,包括南方涛动指数(SOI),信风及海洋温度在内的厄尔尼诺-南方涛动(ENSO)大气和海洋指标均普遍保持为中性状态。
Climate models indicate ENSO-neutral conditions are likely to persist through the southern hemisphere autumn. While it is known that predictions from dynamical models during the April through June period have lower skill, all models currently forecast an ENSO-neutral state to continue for the next season.
气候模型预测表明,ENSO中性状态可能将持续至南半球的秋季。虽然目前动力学模型对4-6月期间所做预测的准确率偏低,但所有模型的预测结果均表明ENSO中性状态将持续至下季。
Ocean temperatures around most of Australia are warmer than average. This may promote increased regional rainfall in favourable weather patterns.
澳大利亚附近大部分地区海温均为正距平,这可能会导致利于降水增加的区域性气候模式。
The Indian Ocean Dipole (IOD) has little influence upon Australia’s climate from December through to April.
印度洋偶极子(IOD)通常情况下对澳大利亚12-4月气候造成的影响不大。
Sea Surface Temperatures
海洋表面温度

Monthly sea surface temperatures:
每月海洋表面温度:

When compared to the previous month, the sea-surface temperature (SST) anomaly map for January shows the emergence of cool anomalies along the equator in the central and eastern tropical Pacific Ocean. Weak warm anomalies remain in the western tropical Pacific, while warm SST anomalies were also present around Australia\'s northwest and southern coasts where surface waters are more than 1 °C warmer than average.  
一月海水表面温度(SST)距平图显示,与上月相比,赤道太平洋东部及中部出现了冷距平,而热带西太平洋则保持着微弱的暖距平,同时澳大利亚西北部及南部近海的海水表面温度也出现了超过1℃的暖距平。
IndexDecemberJanuaryTemperature change
NINO3+0.1-0.40.5 °C cooler
NINO3.4+0.1+0.1no change
NINO4+0.5+0.10.4 °C cooler

1.gif
Weekly sea surface temperatures:
每周海洋表面温度:

Sea surface temperature anomaly patterns in the tropical Pacific generally remained similar to those of two weeks ago, although reducing slightly in strength. Weak cool anomalies have been evident along the equator in the eastern half of the Pacific for a number of weeks (see the SST anomaly map for the week ending 24 February below). Anomalies are more than 1 °C warmer than average around much of Australia.
热带太平洋海水表面温度距平范围与两周前大致相同,而幅度却有所减弱;截至2月24日的每周海温距平图显示,过去两周内赤道太平洋东半部依旧存在较明显的冷距平,而澳大利亚西周边近海的许多地区则出现了超过1℃的暖距平。
IndexPreviousCurrentTemperature change
(2 weeks)
NINO3−0.4−0.10.3 °C cooler
NINO3.4−0.3−0.3no change
NINO4+0.1−0.10.2 °C cooler


2.gif
Pacific ocean sub-surface temperatures
太平洋次表层海温

Monthly sub-surface:
每月次表层海温:

The four-month sequence of sub-surface temperature anomalies (to 25 February) shows cool anomalies in the sub-surface of the eastern equatorial Pacific. A large volume of cooler-than-average water has been in this area since December; much of this water was more than 4 °C cooler than average during February. Western Pacific sub-surface waters have generally warmed over the last four months.  
截至二月底的四个月赤道太平洋次表层海温距平图显示,赤道东太平洋出现的冷距平区依旧存在。自去年12月起,该处便出现了大量冷距平海水,二月该处还出现了大面积超过4℃的冷距平区。西太平洋次表层海温在过去四个月内以暖距平为主。
3.gif
Weekly sub-surface:
每周次表层海温:

The map for the 5 days ending 24 February shows sub-surface waters across the equatorial Pacific are slightly warmer than average in the west and cooler than average in the east. Compared to two weeks ago, the magnitude of these anomalies has been reduced in both areas although small regions remain more than 2 °C above/below average.  
截至2月24日的5日次表层海温距平图显示,在赤道太平洋呈现出的西正东负局面有所缓和。与两周前相比,这些地区距平幅度有所缩小,但部分地区仍保持着2℃以上的正/负距平。
4.gif
Southern Oscillation Index:
南方涛动指数:

The Southern Oscillation Index (SOI) continued to drop before rising over the past two weeks. It is currently within neutral values. The latest (24 February) 30-day SOI value is −5.4.
过去四周内南方涛动指数(SOI)先降后升且仍处于中性;最新30天(截至2月24日)的SOI值为-5.4。
Sustained positive values of the SOI above +8 may indicate a La Niña event, while sustained negative values below −8 may indicate an El Niño event. Values of between about +8 and −8 generally indicate neutral conditions.
SOI持续在+8以上,可能意味着拉尼娜事件的发生;而SOI持续在-8以上,可能意味着厄尔尼诺事件的发生。 SOI在+8和-8之间维持的话,通常表示情况为中性。
5.png
Trade winds:
信风:

The anomaly map for the 5 days ending 24 February shows trade winds are somewhat stronger than average across the western half of the tropical Pacific and near average in the east.
截至2月24日的5日风力距平图显示,热带太平洋西半部的信风出现正距平,而东半部则处于平均水平附近。
During La Niña events, there is a sustained strengthening of the trade winds across much of the tropical Pacific, while during El Niño events there is a sustained weakening of the trade winds.
在拉尼娜事件发生时,赤道太平洋地区的大部分地区的信风会持续增强;而在厄尔尼诺事件发生时,信风会持续减弱。
6.gif
Cloudiness near the dateline:
换日线附近云量:

Cloudiness near the Date Line has remained near average over the past two weeks.
过去两周内,换日线附近云量一直保持在平均水平附近。
Cloudiness along the equator, near the Date Line, is an important indicator of ENSO conditions, as it typically increases (negative OLR anomalies) near and to the east of the Date Line during an El Niño event and decreases (positive OLR anomalies) during a La Niña event.
换日线附近赤道地区云量是ENSO重要指标之一,在厄尔尼诺现象发生时,换日线附近及以东的云量通常会增加(OLR负距平),而在拉尼娜事件下则会减少(OLR正距平)。
7.gif
Climate Models:
气候模式:

International climate models surveyed by the Bureau indicate that SSTs in the equatorial Pacific Ocean are expected to slowly warm but remain neutral through the southern hemisphere autumn. Predictions from dynamical models are known to have lower skill during the April to June period, however, all surveyed models are consistent in their outlooks.  
气象局的气候模型表明,赤道太平洋的海水表面温度在南半球秋天时将缓慢升温但仍将保持中性。虽然目前动力学模型对4-6月期间所做预测的准确率偏低,但气象局采用的所有模型的预测结果均大致相等。
8.png
Indian Ocean Dipole:
印度洋偶极子:

The Indian Ocean Dipole (IOD) is currently neutral, with the latest IOD index value at +0.3 °C for the week ending 24 February. The IOD typically has limited influence on Australia during the summer.  
印度洋偶极子(IOD)目前处于中性,截至2月24日的最新1周IOD指数为+0.3。通常情况下印度洋偶极子将对澳大利亚夏季的气候造成些许影响。
9.png
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发表于 2013-3-17 07:50 | 显示全部楼层
Neutral ENSO state persists in tropical Pacific
热带太平洋ENSO中性状态继续维持(2013.03.12)

Atmospheric and oceanic indicators of the El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO) generally continue within the neutral range. The recent increase in the Southern Oscillation Index (SOI) has been due to persistent high pressure weather systems in the central Pacific Ocean, and is not considered indicative of the broadscale climate. The SOI is known to be volatile at this time of year.
与厄尔尼诺-南方涛动(ENSO)相关的大气和海洋指标目前仍维持在中性。受维持在太平洋中部的高压系统影响,近期南方涛动指数(SOI)有所上升,但此类变化与大尺度气候无关。南方涛动指数在每年的这段时期内通常较不稳定。
Summer ocean surface temperatures around Australia were the highest on record. Some cooling of the ocean off Australia’s northern coast has taken place in the last fortnight, in association with tropical cyclones Sandra and Rusty, but southern waters remain warm. High ocean temperatures may promote increased local rainfall in favourable weather conditions.
澳大利亚近海处的夏季海水表面温度创出历史新高。虽然过去两周内热带气旋“桑德拉”(Sandra)及“拉斯蒂”(Rusty)致使澳大利亚北部近海的海温有所下降,但其南部海域却未受影响。许多时候高海温会导致利于降水增加的区域性气候模式
Climate models indicate the tropical Pacific is likely to remain ENSO-neutral through the first part of the southern hemisphere autumn. While it is known that predictions from dynamical models during the April through June period have lower skill, all models agree that an ENSO-neutral state is the most likely scenario for the next season.
气候模型预测表明,热带太平洋的ENSO中性状态可能将持续至南半球的秋季。虽然目前动力学模型对4-6月期间所做预测的准确率偏低,但所有模型的预测结果均表明ENSO中性状态将持续至下季。
The Indian Ocean Dipole (IOD) has little influence upon Australia’s climate from December through to April.
印度洋偶极子(IOD)通常情况下会对澳大利亚12-4月气候造成些许影响。
Sea Surface Temperatures
海洋表面温度

Monthly sea surface temperatures:
每月海洋表面温度:

The sea-surface temperature (SST) anomaly map for February shows weakening of cool anomalies along the equator in the eastern Pacific when compared to the map for the previous month; small areas of weak cool anomalies remain east of 170°W. Warm anomalies in the western Pacific have also generally weakened. Warm anomalies around the northwestern half of Australia have strengthened while warm anomalies to Australia’s south remain similar to last month; surface waters in these areas are generally more than 1 °C warmer than average.  
二月海水表面温度(SST)距平图显示,与上月相比,赤道太平洋东/西部的冷/暖距平幅度均有所减弱,其中170°W以东少数地区仍保持冷距平。而澳大利亚北部近海的西半部的暖距平幅度有所增强,而南部近海与上月基本持平,其中多数地区的暖距平幅度均达1℃以上。
IndexJanuaryFebruaryTemperature change
NINO3−0.4−0.30.1 °C warmer
NINO3.4+0.1−0.20.3 °C cooler
NINO4+0.1+0.00.1 °C cooler

1.gif
Weekly sea surface temperatures:
每周海洋表面温度:

SST anomalies have generally warmed in the central and eastern tropical Pacific when compared to two weeks ago. The SST anomaly map for the week ending 10 March shows weak warm anomalies in the far eastern tropical Pacific, generally near-average anomalies through the central Pacific, and weak warm anomalies to the north of the Maritime Continent in the far western Pacific.
与两周前相比,热带太平洋东部及中部出现了弱暖距平;截至3月10日的每周海温距平图显示,远东热带太平洋出现了弱暖距平,而中太平洋则保持在平均水平附近,此外远西太平洋海洋大陆的北部亦出现了弱暖距平。
Warm anomalies have weakened around Australia’s north (in part due to the passage of tropical cyclones over the area) although they remain around the western and southern coast, with parts exceeding 2 °C warmer than average for most of southeast Australia.
受近期活跃于此的热带气旋影响,澳大利亚北部近海的暖距平幅度有所减弱,而西部及南部近海的海温则继续保持,其中部分地区及澳大利亚东南部的许多地区暖距平幅度超过2℃。
IndexPreviousCurrentTemperature change
(2 weeks)
NINO3−0.1+0.30.4 °C warmer
NINO3.4−0.3+0.10.4 °C warmer
NINO4−0.1−0.1no change

2.gif
Pacific ocean sub-surface temperatures
太平洋次表层海温

Monthly sub-surface:
每月次表层海温:

The four-month sequence of sub-surface temperature anomalies (to February) shows cool anomalies in the sub-surface of the eastern equatorial Pacific. A large volume of cooler-than-average water has been stable here since December; much of this water was more than 4 °C cooler than average during February. Western Pacific sub-surface waters have generally warmed over the last four months.
截至二月的四个月赤道太平洋次表层海温距平图显示,赤道东太平洋出现的冷距平区依旧存在。自去年12月起,该处便出现了大量冷距平海水,二月该处还出现了大面积超过4℃的冷距平区。西太平洋次表层海温在过去四个月内以暖距平为主。
3.gif
Weekly sub-surface:
每周次表层海温:

The map for the 5 days ending 10 March is generally similar to that for two weeks ago; weak warm anomalies remain in the sub-surface of the western equatorial Pacific. Cool anomalies in the central equatorial Pacific are confined to a smaller area, with shallower weak warm anomalies emerging at 50 to 100 m depth in the eastern equatorial Pacific.
截至3月10日的5日次表层海温距平图显示,与两周前相比,赤道西太平洋的海温暖距平幅度有所减弱。而冷距平区的范围则被压缩至赤道太平洋中部,此外赤道东太平洋50-100米深处还出现了浅层弱暖距平区。
4.gif
Southern Oscillation Index:
南方涛动指数:

The Southern Oscillation Index (SOI) has steadily increased over the past two weeks, mainly associated with higher than normal pressures in the tropical Pacific. This is considered to be largely a weather effect, and doesn’t necessarily reflect the boarder climate situation. The latest (10 March) 30-day SOI value is +9.5.
受热带太平洋气压异常偏高影响,过去两周内南方涛动指数(SOI)稳步上升;由于此种变化在很大程度上受制于天气的影响,故其难以反映出大尺度气候状况。最新30天(截至3月10日)的SOI值为+9.5。
Sustained positive values of the SOI above +8 may indicate a La Niña event, while sustained negative values below −8 may indicate an El Niño event. Values of between about +8 and −8 generally indicate neutral conditions.
当SOI稳定在+8以上时可能意味着拉尼娜事件的发生;而SOI稳定在-8以上则可能意味着厄尔尼诺事件的发生。此外SOI在+8和-8之间维持时通常表示情况为中性。
5.png
Trade winds:
信风:

Trade winds have weakened across most of the tropical Pacific during the past two weeks. The anomaly map for the 5 days ending 10 March shows trade winds are stronger than average just west of the Date Line, and near average across the remainder of the tropical Pacific.
截至3月10日的5日风力距平图显示,过去两周内热带太平洋多数地区的信风强度均有所减弱,热带太平洋西半部的信风出现正距平,而热带太平洋其余地区则处于平均水平附近。
During La Niña events, there is a sustained strengthening of the trade winds across much of the tropical Pacific, while during El Niño events there is a sustained weakening of the trade winds.
在拉尼娜事件发生时,赤道太平洋地区的大部分地区的信风会持续增强;而厄尔尼诺事件的发生则会致使信风持续减弱。
6.gif
Cloudiness near the dateline:
换日线附近云量:

Cloudiness near the Date Line has fluctuated around average over the past two weeks, increasing to slightly above average after being below average since late February.
过去两周内换日线附近的云量在平均水平附近上下波动。在二月早期云量出现负距平之后,二月下旬的云量回升至略高于平均水平。
Cloudiness along the equator, near the Date Line, is an important indicator of ENSO conditions, as it typically increases (negative OLR anomalies) near and to the east of the Date Line during an El Niño event and decreases (positive OLR anomalies) during a La Niña event.
换日线附近赤道地区云量是ENSO重要指标之一,每当厄尔尼诺事件发生时,换日线附近及以东的云量通常会增加(即OLR负距平),而在拉尼娜事件时则会减少(即OLR正距平)。
7.gif
Climate Models:
气候模式:

International climate models surveyed by the Bureau indicate that SSTs in the equatorial Pacific Ocean are expected to slowly warm but remain neutral through the southern hemisphere autumn. Predictions from dynamical models are known to have lower skill during the April to June period, however, all surveyed models are consistent in their outlooks.
气象局的气候模型表明,赤道太平洋的海水表面温度在南半球秋天时将缓慢升温但仍将保持中性。虽然目前动力学模型对4-6月期间所做预测的准确率偏低,但气象局采用的所有模型的预测结果均大致相同。
8.png
Indian Ocean Dipole:
印度洋偶极子:

The Indian Ocean Dipole (IOD) is currently neutral, with the latest IOD index value at +0.2 °C for the week ending 10 March. Current model outlooks indicate the IOD will remain neutral throughout the southern hemisphere autumn.
印度洋偶极子(IOD)目前处于中性,截至3月10日的最新1周IOD指数值为+0.2。目前的模型预测表明IOD将在南半球的秋季时保持中性。
9.png
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发表于 2013-4-8 12:09 | 显示全部楼层
Tropical Pacific ENSO neutral
热带太平洋的ENSO中性状态(2013.03.26)

The tropical Pacific remains neutral - neither El Niño nor La Niña. Current atmospheric and oceanic indicators as well as climate model forecasts indicate neutral conditions are likely to continue through the remainder of the southern hemisphere autumn.
热带太平洋目前仍保持中性-既未发生厄尔尼诺事件也未发生拉尼娜事件。目前的大气海洋指标及气候模型的预测均表明,南半球秋季的剩余时间内仍将维持中性。
Despite the April to June period being historically the most difficult time of the year for making ENSO (El Niño-Southern Oscillation) predictions, all dynamical models agree that neither El Niño nor La Niña is likely to develop in the coming months. Likewise, observations of ocean temperatures in the tropical Pacific and atmospheric indicators have consistently remained within neutral ranges since spring 2012.
虽然目前动力学模型对4-6月期间ENSO(厄尔尼诺-南方涛动)所做预测的准确率偏低,但气象局采用的所有模型均预测未来几个月内将不会发生厄尔尼诺或拉尼娜事件。同时热带太平洋海温观测值及大气指标自2012年春季以来也维持于中性。
Following Australia\'s warmest summer on record with respect to land and ocean temperatures, southern waters remain unusually warm. High ocean temperatures may promote increased local rainfall in favourable weather conditions.
虽然澳大利亚有史以来陆地及海洋温度最高的夏季已经过去,但其南部海域的温度依旧保持在高位。许多时候高海温会导致利于降水增加的区域性气候模式。
The Indian Ocean Dipole (IOD) has little influence upon Australia’s climate from December through to April. The consensus of current model projections is for neutral IOD conditions for late autumn into early winter.
印度洋偶极子(IOD)通常情况下会对澳大利亚12-4月气候造成些许影响。目前模型预测均表明,IOD将于(南半球)秋末冬初时保持中性。
Sea Surface Temperatures
海洋表面温度

Monthly sea surface temperatures:
每月海洋表面温度:

The sea-surface temperature (SST) anomaly map for February shows weakening of cool anomalies along the equator in the eastern Pacific when compared to the map for the previous month; small areas of weak cool anomalies remain east of 170°W. Warm anomalies in the western Pacific have also generally weakened. Warm anomalies around the northwestern half of Australia have strengthened while warm anomalies to Australia’s south remain similar to last month; surface waters in these areas are generally more than 1 °C warmer than average.   
二月海水表面温度(SST)距平图显示,与上月相比,赤道太平洋东/西部的冷/暖距平幅度均有所减弱,其中170°W以东少数地区仍保持冷距平。而澳大利亚北部近海的西半部的暖距平幅度有所增强,而南部近海与上月基本持平,其中多数地区的暖距平幅度均达1℃以上。
IndexJanuaryFebruaryTemperature change
NINO3−0.4−0.30.1 °C warmer
NINO3.4+0.1−0.20.3 °C cooler
NINO4+0.1+0.00.1 °C cooler

1.gif
Weekly sea surface temperatures:
每周海洋表面温度:

SST anomalies have warmed in the eastern tropical Pacific when compared to two weeks ago. The SST anomaly map for the week ending 24 March shows warm anomalies in the far eastern tropical Pacific, and near-average anomalies through the central and eastern Pacific. There are warm anomalies to the north of the Maritime Continent in the far western Pacific, which have warmed over the last two weeks.
与两周前相比,热带太平洋东部暖距平幅度增大;截至3月24日的每周海温距平图显示,远东热带太平洋出现了弱暖距平,而中太平洋及西太平洋则保持在平均水平附近,此外远西太平洋及海洋大陆的北部仍保持暖距平。
Warm anomalies have reappeared around Australia\'s north and western coast over the last fortnight, with anomalies around parts of northern, western and southern Australia of 2 °C.
在过去两周内,澳大利亚北部及西部近海的暖距平幅度再度增强,澳大利亚北部、西部及南部的许多地区暖距平幅度均在2℃上下。
IndexPreviousCurrentTemperature change
(2 weeks)
NINO3+0.3+0.60.3 °C warmer
NINO3.4+0.1+0.1no change
NINO4−0.10.00.1 °C warmer

2.gif
Pacific ocean sub-surface temperatures
太平洋次表层海温

Monthly sub-surface:
每月次表层海温:

The four-month sequence of sub-surface temperature anomalies (to 23 March) shows cool anomalies in the sub-surface of the eastern equatorial Pacific, this pool of cooler than normal water has weakened slightly since February. Western Pacific sub-surface waters are warmer than average to the west of the Date line.
截至3月23日的四个月赤道太平洋次表层海温距平图显示,赤道东太平洋的冷距平区依旧存在,但二月以来其程度略有减弱。西太平洋至而换日线以西的次表层海温则出现了暖距平。
3.gif
Weekly sub-surface:
每周次表层海温:

The map for the 5 days ending 23 March shows a deepending of the cool anomalies at 100 m depth in the eastern equatorial Pacific, while there has been a strengthening of the warm anomalies in the western Pacific.
截至3月23日的5日次表层海温距平图显示,赤道太平洋东部100米深处附近出现了冷距平区,而赤道西太平洋的暖距平幅度则进一步加大。
4.gif
Southern Oscillation Index:
南方涛动指数:

The Southern Oscillation Index (SOI) has fallen slightly in recent days as the influence from local weather events in the tropical Pacific has reduced. The latest (23 March) 30-day SOI value is +8.4.
受发生于热带太平洋地区的天气事件影响,近期南方涛动指数(SOI)略有下降。最新30天(截至3月23日)的SOI值为+8.4。
Sustained positive values of the SOI above +8 may indicate a La Niña event, while sustained negative values below −8 may indicate an El Niño event. Values of between about +8 and −8 generally indicate neutral conditions.
当SOI稳定在+8以上时可能意味着拉尼娜事件的发生;而SOI稳定在-8以上则可能意味着厄尔尼诺事件的发生。此外SOI在+8和-8之间维持时通常表示情况为中性。
5.png
Trade winds:
信风:

Trade winds remain weak across most of the tropical Pacific. The anomaly map for the 5 days ending 23 March shows trade winds are stronger than average in the far western equatorial Pacific, and near average across the remainder of the tropical Pacific.
热带太平洋多数地区的信风强度依旧孱弱。截至3月23日的5日风力距平图显示,赤道太平洋远西地区的信风为正距平,而热带太平洋其余地区则处于平均水平附近。
During La Niña events, there is a sustained strengthening of the trade winds across much of the tropical Pacific, while during El Niño events there is a sustained weakening of the trade winds.
在拉尼娜事件发生时,赤道太平洋地区的大部分地区的信风会持续增强;而厄尔尼诺事件的发生则会致使信风持续减弱。
6.gif
Cloudiness near the dateline:
换日线附近云量:

Cloudiness near the Date Line has remained close to average over the past two weeks. There has not been a sustained deviation in cloudiness since March 2012.
过去两周内换日线附近的云量依旧位于平均水平附近。自2012年3月以来,云量从未持续出现负距平。
Cloudiness along the equator, near the Date Line, is an important indicator of ENSO conditions, as it typically increases (negative OLR anomalies) near and to the east of the Date Line during an El Niño event and decreases (positive OLR anomalies) during a La Niña event.
换日线附近赤道地区云量是ENSO重要指标之一,每当厄尔尼诺事件发生时,换日线附近及以东的云量通常会增加(即OLR负距平),而在拉尼娜事件时则会减少(即OLR正距平)。
7.gif
Climate Models:
气候模式:

International climate models surveyed by the Bureau indicate that SSTs in the equatorial Pacific Ocean are expected remain close to average through the southern hemisphere autumn. Predictions from dynamical models are known to have lower skill during the April to June period, however, all surveyed models are consistent in their outlooks.
气象局的气候模型表明,赤道太平洋的海水表面温度在南半球秋天时将保持中性。虽然目前动力学模型对4-6月期间所做预测的准确率偏低,但气象局采用的所有模型的预测结果均大致相同。
8.png
Indian Ocean Dipole:
印度洋偶极子:

The Indian Ocean Dipole (IOD) is currently neutral, with the latest IOD index value at -0.2 °C for the week ending 17 March. Current model outlooks indicate the IOD will remain neutral throughout the southern hemisphere autumn.
印度洋偶极子(IOD)目前处于中性,截至3月17日的最新1周IOD指数值为-0.2。目前的模型预测表明IOD将在南半球的秋季时保持中性。
9.png
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发表于 2013-4-28 16:45 | 显示全部楼层

2013 - 04 - 23

ENSO neutral state expected to persist well into winter
ENSO 中性条件將持续至冬季

The tropical Pacific has remained in a neutral El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO) state since mid 2012. Currently, all atmospheric and oceanic indicators of ENSO remain within their neutral range. All climate models surveyed by the Bureau of Meteorology favour ENSO-neutral conditions (neither El Niño nor La Niña) persisting through the southern hemisphere winter.
热带太平洋已由 2012年中始维持 ENSO中性条件。目前全部 ENSO指标维持中性。气象局调查的气候模型表明,热带太平洋地区ENSO中性条件很可能要持续到南半球的冬季。
The Indian Ocean Dipole (IOD) has greatest influence upon Australia’s climate from May through to November. Model outlooks indicate a neutral IOD is most likely for the coming months; however, two of the five models surveyed indicate the possibility of a negative IOD heading into the southern spring. A negative IOD during spring increases the chances of above normal rainfall over southern Australia.
印度洋偶极子(IOD)在五至十一月对澳大利亚的气候影响最大。数值预报显示IOD 将在未来数月将维持中性;惟五个数值中的其中两个显示 IOD 有机会在南半球春天变为负数,并提升了南澳大利亚有高于平均的降雨的机会。
Sea Surface Temperatures
海洋表面温度

Monthly sea surface temperatures:  
每月海洋表面温度

The sea-surface temperature (SST) anomaly map for March shows warm anomalies have emerged along the equator in parts of the eastern Pacific, replacing cool anomalies which were present during February. Warm anomalies in the western Pacific and around Australia’s north and west have weakened while warm anomalies to Australia’s south have strengthened, particularly in the southeast; surface waters in these areas are generally more than 1 °C warmer than average. Broadly, the tropical Pacific Ocean remains close to the long term average.
三月海水表面温度(SST)距平图显示东太平洋由二月的冷距平变为暖距平,西太平洋及澳大利亚西北面海洋的暖距平现象已减弱,惟澳大利亚南面(特别是东南面)有相反的结果,海温叫平均值高 1°C。预料热带太平洋的海温将维持正常水平。

Index 指标February 二月March 三月Temperature change 温度变化
NINO3−0.3+0.30.6 °C warmer 比上月高 0.6°C
NINO3.4−0.2+0.10.3 °C warmer 比上月高 0.3°C
NINO4 0.0 0.0no change 没有变化

sst_monthly.gif

Weekly sea surface temperatures:  
每周海洋表面温度:

SST anomalies have cooled slightly across all three monitored NINO indices compared to two weeks ago. The pattern of SST anomalies across the Pacific Basin remains generally similar although cool anomalies along the South American coastline have decreased in strength. The map for the week ending 21 April shows SSTs along the equator are mostly near average for this time of the year with weak warm anomalies in the far western Pacific. Warm anomalies remain around much of the Australian coastline, and have strengthened during the past two weeks.
从三个 NINO指标知道,目前海温与两周前相比稍冷。虽然南美沿岸海温的冷距平减弱,但太平洋海温仍然维持在一中性水平。下图显示赤道海温接近平均水平,而西太平洋附近为轻微的暖距平。大部分澳洲沿岸的海域为暖距平,且与两周前相比增强了。


Index 指标Previous 上次Current 目前Temperature change(2 weeks) 温度变化(两周)
NINO3+0.3+0.20.1 °C cooler 比上次冷 0.1°C
NINO3.4+0.2+0.10.1 °C cooler 比上次冷 0.1°C
NINO4+0.1 0.00.1 °C cooler 比上次冷 0.1°C
sst_weekly.gif


Pacific ocean sub-surface temperatures
太平洋次表层海温

Monthly sub-surface:  
每月次表层海温:

The four-month sequence of sub-surface temperature anomalies (to 22 April) shows cool anomalies in the sub-surface of the eastern equatorial Pacific; this pool of cooler than normal water peaked in extent in January and has weakened since. The position of this pool of cooler-than-average water has been moving westward over recent months. Much of this water was more than 2 °C cooler than average for April. Warm anomalies remain present in the sub-surface of the far western equatorial Pacific.
截至 22/4 的四个月赤道太平洋次表层海温距平图显示赤道东太平洋出现的冷距平区依旧存在,其从一月开始减弱,及在过去几个月内移西。在这区域,海温比四月平均值大约低 2°C。此外,远西太平洋的次表层海温仍为暖距平。
sub_surf_mon.gif

Weekly sub-surface:  
每周次表层海温:

Compared to two weeks ago, the sub-surface map for the 5 days ending 21 April shows cool anomalies in the subsurface of the eastern Pacific have strengthened; water more than 1 °C cooler than average is present between 50 and 250 m deep across nearly all of the equatorial Pacific. Warm anomalies are still present in the far western equatorial Pacific sub-surface, but have weakened slightly compared to two weeks ago.
截至 21/4的5日次表层海温距平图显示东太平洋次表层海温的冷距平与两周前相比增强了;在赤道太平洋 50-250米深位置,接近全部地方的海温比平均值低 超过 1°C。此外远西太平洋的次表层海温仍为暖距平,但比两周前稍微减弱。
sub_surf_tao.gif


Southern Oscillation Index:  
南方涛动指数:
[/table]
The Southern Oscillation Index (SOI) has dropped slightly compared to two weeks ago. The latest 30-day SOI value to 21 April is +6.9.
南方涛动指数(SOI)与两周前相比稍微下降。最新30天的SOI值为+6.9。
Sustained positive values of the SOI above +8 may indicate a La Niña event, while sustained negative values below −8 may indicate an El Niño event. Values of between about +8 and −8 generally indicate neutral conditions.
SOI 稳定在+8以上可能意味着拉尼娜事件的发生;SOI 稳定在-8以下可能意味着厄尔尼诺事件的发生;SOI 在+8和-8之间维持通常表示情况为中性。  
soi30 (1).png
Trade winds:  
信风:
Trade winds have weakened across the western tropical Pacific during the past two weeks. The anomaly map for the 5 days ending 21 April shows trade winds are stronger than average across the western half of the tropical Pacific and near average elsewhere.
西热带太平洋信风在过去两周减弱。截至 21/4 的5日风力距平图显示除西热带太平洋信风较平均强外其余所有地方的信风强度接近平均值。
During La Niña events, there is a sustained strengthening of the trade winds across much of the tropical Pacific, while during El Niño events there is a sustained weakening of the trade winds.
当拉尼娜事件发生时,赤道太平洋大部分地区的信风会持续增强;而厄尔尼诺事件的发生会使信风持续减弱。
sst_wind_anom_5day.large.gif
Cloudiness near the dateline:  
换日线附近云量:
Cloudiness near the Date Line has been slightly below average during the past two weeks. There has not been a sustained deviation in cloudiness since March 2012, coinciding with the close of the most recent La Niña event.
过去两周内换日线附近的云量稍稍在平均水平之下。自2012年3月以来,云量从未持续出现负距平,恰逢最近一次拉尼娜事件的结束。
Cloudiness along the equator, near the Date Line, is an important indicator of ENSO conditions, as it typically increases (negative OLR anomalies) near and to the east of the Date Line during an El Niño event and decreases (positive OLR anomalies) during a La Niña event.
换日线附近赤道地区云量是ENSO重要指标之一,每当厄尔尼诺事件发生时,换日线附近及以东的云量通常会增加(即OLR负距平),而在拉尼娜事件时云量则会减少(即OLR正距平)。  
region.ts.dateline (1).gif
Climate Models:  
气候模式:
International climate models surveyed by the Bureau indicate that SSTs in the equatorial Pacific Ocean are expected to remain neutral at least through the southern hemisphere winter. Predictions from dynamical models are known to have lower skill during the April to June period, however, all surveyed models are consistent in their outlooks.
气象局的气候模型表示,赤道太平洋的海表温度将至少在南半球冬天保持中性。虽然目前动力学模型对4-6月期间所做的预测的准确率偏低,但气象局采用的所有模型的预测结果均大致相同。
poama.nino34.small (1).png
[table=100%,#ffffff]Indian Ocean Dipole:  
印度洋偶极子:

The Indian Ocean Dipole (IOD) is currently neutral, with the latest IOD index value at +0.1 °C for the week ending 21 April. Current model outlooks indicate the IOD will remain on the cool side of neutral into the southern hemisphere winter. However, two of the five models surveyed indicate the possibility of a negative IOD heading into the southern spring. A negative IOD during spring increases the chances of above normal rainfall over southern Australia.
印度洋偶极子(IOD)目前处于中性,截至 21/4 的最新1周IOD指数值为 +0.1。目前模型预测表示 IOD将在南半球冬季保持在中性范围的负范围内;惟五个数值中的其中两个显示 IOD 有机会在南半球春天变为负数,并提升了南澳大利亚有高于平均的降雨的机会。
poama.iod.small.png
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资深会员-热带辐合带

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发表于 2013-5-8 09:13 | 显示全部楼层

2013.05.07

ENSO neutral; a negative IOD slightly favoured
ENSO维持中性IOD倾向负相
The tropical Pacific has remained in a neutral El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO) state since mid 2012. All atmospheric and oceanic indicators of ENSO are currently well within neutral values. International climate models surveyed by the Bureau of Meteorology favour an ENSO-neutral state persisting into the southern hemisphere winter.

从2012
年中期开始,热带太平洋一直维持厄尔尼诺
-
南方涛动(
ENSO
)中性状态。目前所有的
ENSO
指数都很好地保持中性值。气象局提供的国际气候模型支持
ENSO
中性状态持续到南半球的冬季。

Following record high ocean temperatures around Australia during the summer, oceans have remained warmer than average, with January to April 2013 the warmest such period on record. Warm ocean surface temperatures around the continent may enhance local rainfall under favourable conditions.

2013
年夏季,澳大利亚沿岸海温比平均值高,从记录数据上看,
1
月至
4
月这段期间海温最高。大陆沿岸的高海温状态可能在有利条件下增加当地的降水量。

The Indian Ocean Dipole (IOD) index is currently neutral. Model outlooks of the IOD are mixed, with three of the five models favouring the development of a negative IOD during the southern hemisphere winterspring period. Overall, a negative IOD event is slightly favoured over neutral conditions. A negative IOD during winter-spring increases the chances of above normal rainfall over southern
Australia.

目前印度洋偶极子(IOD
)指数为中性。纵观5
个模式对
IOD
的预测,其中
3
个支持IOD
在南半球的冬春季转为负值。总的来说,在中性条件下允许IOD
存在负值的情况。在冬春季节,负的IOD
指数增加了南澳大利亚超量降雨的机会。

Sea Surface Temperatures
海洋表面温度:

Monthly sea surface temperatures:
每月海表面温度
The sea-surface temperature (SST) anomaly map for May shows nearaverage SSTs across nearly the entire tropical Pacific. A small area of cool anomalies hugs the South American coastline and warm anomalies continue across most of the Maritime Continent region. The eastern equatorial Pacific has cooled compared to April but elsewhere anomalies remain similar.

五月的海表面温度(
SST
)距平图表明了整个热带太平洋的
SST
接近平均。南美沿岸出现了小面积的
冷距平而大部分海陆区域继续保持
暖距平。和
4
月相比,东太平洋赤道有所冷却但其他地方海温维持。
         
指标
         
3月
         
4月
         
温度
         
NINO3
         
+0.3
         
+0.1
         
低0.2℃
         
NINO3.4
         
+0.1
         
+0.1
         
不变
         
NINO4
         
0.0
         
0.0
         
不变

11.jpg Weekly sea surface temperatures:

每周海表面气温
SST anomalies have cooled in the eastern equatorial Pacific when compared to two weeks ago. The map for the week ending 5 May shows negative SST anomalies are present along the equator between the South American coast and 130W. Elsewhere along the equator SSTs are near average with above warm anomalies in the far western Pacific and across the south of the Pacific Basin, poleward of the tropics. Warm anomalies also remain around much of the Australian coastline.

和两周前相比,东太平洋赤道海温有所冷却。下图(截至
5
5
日所在周)表明:目前南美沿岸到
130
°
W
之间赤道区域海温为冷距平。在遥远的西太平洋和南太平洋盆地的赤道海温接近平均为暖距平。大部分的澳大利亚海岸也维持暖距平。
         
指标
         
先前
         
当前
         
温度变化(两周)
         
NINO3
         
+0.2
         
-0.1
         
低0.3℃
         
NINO3.4
         
+0.1
         
+0.1
         
不变
         
NINO4
         
0.0
         
0.0
         
不变

12.jpg
Pacific ocean sub-surface temperatures
太平洋次表层海温

Monthly sub-surface:

每月次表层海温
The fourmonth sequence of subsurface temperature anomalies (to April) shows cool anomalies in the sub-surface of the eastern to central equatorial Pacific; this pool of cooler than normal water
peaked in extent in January and has weakened since. The position of this pool of cooler-than average water has been moving westward over recent months. Much of this water was more than 2 °C cooler than average for April. Warm anomalies remain present in the subsurface of the far western equatorial Pacific.

四个月的次表层海温距平图(截至4月)显示,中太平洋赤道至东太平洋赤道次表层为冷距平;1月份这片水域比正常水温偏冷并且冷却达到峰值,但此后冷却程度有所减弱,数月来这片冷水域一直向西移动,大部分比4月平均低2℃。而目前的次表层暖距平则出现在遥远的西太平洋赤道。
13.jpg
Weekly sub-surface:

每周次表层海温:

Compared to two weeks ago, the subsurface map for the 5 days ending 5 May shows cool anomalies in the subsurface of the eastern Pacific have strengthened; water more than 1cooler than average is present between 50 and 250 m deep across nearly all of the equatorial Pacific, reaching more than 3 °C cooler than average east of the Date Line. Warm anomalies are still present in the far western equatorial Pacific sub-surface.
从次表层海温图(截至5月)上看,东太平洋冷距平和两周前相比有所加强;目前,太平洋赤道50-250m深的次表层海温比平均值低1℃,比日界线以东海温低3℃。而次表层暖距平依旧在西太平洋赤道。
14.jpg
Southern Oscillation Index:

南方波动指数:

The Southern Oscillation Index (SOI) has continued to drop over the last two weeks. The latest 30-day SOI value to 5 May is -3.6
前两周南方波动指数(SOI)继续下跌,最近30天(截至55日)的SOI指数为-3.6
Sustained positive values of the SOI above +8 may indicate a La Niña event, while sustained negative values below -8 may indicate an El Niño event. Values of between about +8 and -8 generally indicate neutral conditions.
持续的大于8.0的正指数可能预示拉尼娜事件的发生,同样,持续低于-8将预示厄尔尼诺事件的发生,那么在8-8之间就是中性状态。
15.jpg
Trade winds:

信风:

Trade winds have strengthened across the western tropical Pacific during the past two weeks. The anomaly map for the 5 days ending 5 May shows trade winds are stronger than average across the far western tropical Pacific and near average elsewhere.
过去两周热带太平洋西部的信风已经加强。从5天(截至55日)的距平图上看,热带太平洋西部的信风比平均值强而其他海域接近平均值。
During La Niña events, there is a sustained strengthening of the trade winds across much of the tropical Pacific, while during El Niño events there is a sustained weakening of the trade winds.
在拉尼娜盛行时,大部分热带太平洋的信风持续偏强,而厄尔尼诺时信风偏弱。
22.jpg
Cloudiness near the Date Line:

日界线附近的云量:

Cloudiness near the Date Line has been below average during the past two weeks.
过去两周日界线附近云量低于平均。
Cloudiness along the equator, near the Date Line, is an important indicator of ENSO conditions, as it typically increases (negative OLR anomalies) near and to the east of the Date Line during an El Niño event and decreases (positive OLR anomalies) during a La Niña event.
日界线赤道附近的云量是ENSO状态的重要指标,每当厄尔尼诺发生时,日界线附近及以东海域的云量会特别的增加(OLR为负距平),而在拉尼娜发生时会减少(OLR为正距平)
7.jpg
Climate Models:

气候模式:International climate models surveyed by the Bureau indicate that SSTs in the equatorial Pacific Ocean are likely to remain neutral at least until the southern hemisphere spring.
气象局提供的国际气候模型表明:太平洋赤道海域的SST将保持中性状态,这种中性状态将至少持续到南半球的春季
8.jpg
Indian Ocean Dipole:

印度洋偶极子:

The Indian Ocean Dipole (IOD) is currently neutral, with the latest IOD index value at +0.2 °C for the week
ending 5 May. Current model outlooks indicate the IOD will remain on the cool side of neutral into the southern hemisphere winter. However, three of the five models surveyed indicate the possibility of a negative IOD heading into the southern spring. A negative IOD during spring increases the chances of
above normal rainfall over southern Australia.

印度洋偶极子(IOD)现在处于中性状态,因为截至55日,IOD指数值为+0.2℃。当前的模式预测表明IOD中性状态将持续到南半球冬季。5个中的3个模式观测表明,南半球春季的IOD指数可能转为负值。春季负的IOD指数将增加南澳大利亚超量降雨的机会。
9.jpg
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资深会员-热带辐合带

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发表于 2013-5-24 14:58 | 显示全部楼层

2013.05.21

ENSO likely to remain neutral; a negative IOD favoured
ENSO将保持中性状态;IOD倾向负位相

The tropical Pacific has remained neutral with respect to the El Niño Southern Oscillation (ENSO) since mid2012. All atmospheric and oceanic indicators of ENSO are currently well within neutral values. Weekly sea surface temperatures across the eastern half of the tropical Pacific have cooled slightly over the past month, but remain within neutral territory. International climate models surveyed by the Bureau of Meteorology suggest the tropical Pacific will remain ENSOneutral through the southern hemisphere winter.
自从2012年中期以来,热带太平洋的ENSO状态一直维持中性。目前,所有ENSO的大气和海洋指数都是中性值。在过去的一个月,从周海表层气温看,东太平洋一半的海温有所冷却,但都保持在中性范围内。气象局提供的国际气候模型数据支持热带太平的ENSO状态在南半球冬季维持中性
The Indian Ocean Dipole (IOD) is currently neutral. Model outlooks of the IOD are becoming more consistent, with four of the five models surveyed now favouring the development of a negative IOD during the southern winterspring period. The fifth model is also suggesting values on the negative side of neutral. A negative IOD during winterspring increases the chances of abovenormal rainfall over southern Australia
当前,IOD为中性。IOD的模型预测逐渐趋向一致,因为五个中的四个模式支持在南半球冬季IOD发展成负位相,第五个模式也正转向中性偏负。IOD负位相增加了南澳大利亚沿岸增量降雨的机会
Monthly sea surface temperatures:
[/table]
每月海表层温度:

The seasurface temperature (SST) anomaly map for April shows nearaverage SSTs across nearly the entire tropical Pacific. A small area of cool anomalies hugs the South American coastline and warm anomalies continue across most of the Maritime Continent region. The eastern equatorial Pacific has cooled compared to April but elsewhere anomalies remain similar.
4月的海表层气温(SST)距平图表明:整个热带太平洋的SST接近平均。除了南美海岸有小面积的冷距平,大部分的海陆地区继续保持暖距平。和4月相比,东太平洋赤道海温有所冷去而其他地区距平保持不变。
指标        3月        4月        温度变化
NINO3        0.3         0.1         低0.1℃
NINO3.4        0.1         0.1         不变
NINO4        0.0         0.0         不变
1.jpg

Weekly sea surface temperatures:

每周海表层温度:

SST anomalies have cooled in the eastern equatorial Pacific when compared to two weeks ago. The map for the week ending 19 May shows negative SST anomalies are present along the equator between the South American coast and 140°W. Elsewhere along the equator SSTs are near average with warm anomalies in the far western Pacific and across the south of the Pacific Basin, poleward of the tropics. Warm anomalies also remain around much of the Australian coastline.
和两周前相比,东太平洋赤道SST有所冷却。截至5月19日这一周的距平图表明:在南美海岸到140°W之间的赤道SST为负距平。其他地区的沿赤道SST接近平均为暖距平,包括遥远的西太平洋、太平洋盆地南部、太平洋南北极向地区。澳大利亚沿岸也保持着暖距平。
指标        先前        当前        温度变化(两周)
NINO3        -0.1         -0.3         低0.2℃
NINO3.4        0.1         -0.1         低0.2℃
NINO4        0.0         0.0         不变
2.png
Monthly sub-surface:

每月次表层海温:

The fourmonth sequence of subsurface temperature anomalies (to 20 May) shows cool anomalies in the subsurface of the eastern to central equatorial Pacific; this pool of cooler than normal water peaked in extent in January and has weakened since. A small area of this pool of cooler-thanaverage water is more than3 °C cooler than average for May. Warm anomalies remain present in the subsurface of the far western equatorial Pacific.
4个月的次表层海温距平图(截至5月20日)显示:中东太平洋赤道的次表层为冷距平。这片比正常冷的水域在1月份冷却达到峰值,从那以后冷却程度减弱。在5月,这片水域的一小部分地区海温甚至比平均低3℃以上。而目前暖距平依旧在西太平洋赤道。

3.png
Weekly sub-surface:

每周次表层海温:

Anomalies in the subsurface of the equatorial Pacific remain similar to those from two weeks ago. The sub-surface map for the 5 days ending 20 May shows anomalies more than 1 °C cooler than average are present between 50 and 250 m deep across nearly all of the equatorial Pacific, reaching more than 3 °Ccooler than average east of the Date Line. Warm anomalies are still present in the far western equatorial Pacific sub-surface.
太平洋赤道的次表层海温距平与两周前相似。5天(截至5月20日)的次表层海温距平图表明:目前太平洋赤道50-250米深海温比平均低1℃,而日界线东部海温甚至比平均低3℃。目前次表层暖距平依旧在遥远的西太平洋赤道。
4.png
Southern Oscillation Index:

南方波动指数:

The Southern Oscillation Index (SOI) has risen over the last two weeks and remains neutral. The latest 30-day SOI value to 19 May is +1.6.
和过去两周相比,南方波动指数(SOI)有所提升并保持中性,截至5月19日的最近30天SOI值为+1.6
Sustained positive values of the SOI above +8 may indicate a La Niña event, while sustained negative values below -8 may indicate an El Niño event. Values of between about +8 and -8 generally indicate neutral conditions
持续的大于8.0的正指数可能预示拉尼娜事件的发生,同样,持续低于-8将预示厄尔尼诺事件的发生,那么在8和-8之间就是中性状态。
5.png
Trade winds:

信风:

Trade winds have weakened slightly in the far western tropical Pacific during the past two weeks. The anomaly map for the 5 days ending 19 May shows trade winds remain stronger than average across the far western tropical Pacific and near average elsewhere.
过去两周西太平洋的信风有所减弱,截至5月19日的5天距平图显示:热带太平洋西部的信风维持比平均值强而其他地区解决平均。
6.jpg
Cloudiness near the Date Line:

日界线附近云量:

Cloudiness near the Date Line has been near average during the past two weeks.
过去两周日界线附近的云量接近平均。
Cloudiness along the equator, near the Date Line, is an important indicator of ENSO conditions, as it typically increases (negative OLR anomalies) near and to the east of the Date Line during an El Niño event and decreases (positive OLR anomalies) during a La Niña event.
日界线赤道附近的云量是ENSO状态的重要指标,每当厄尔尼诺发生时,日界线附近及以东海域的云量会特别的增加(OLR为负距平),而在拉尼娜发生时会减少(OLR为正距平)。
7.jpg

Climate Models:

气候模式:

International climate models surveyed by the Bureau indicate that SSTs in the equatorial Pacific Ocean are likely to remain neutral at least until the southern hemisphere spring.
气象局提供的国际气候模型表明:太平洋赤道海域的SST将保持中性状态,这种中性状态将至少持续到南半球的春季
8.jpg
Indian Ocean Dipole:

印度洋偶极子:
[table=100%,#ffffff]

The Indian Ocean Dipole (IOD) is currently neutral, with the latest IOD index value at -0.6 °C for the week ending 19 May. Current model outlooks indicate an enhanced likelihood of a negative IOD event developing in either the southern hemisphere winter or spring. Four of the five models surveyed indicate a negative IOD event, while the fifth indicates weaker negative values of the index. A negative IOD during spring increases the chances of above-average rainfall over southern Australia.
目前,印度洋偶极子(IOD)为中性,截至5月19日这一周IOD值为-0.6℃。当前的模式预测表明:在南半球的冬季或春季IOD负位相可能性加大,五个中的四个模式支持IOD负位相事件,而第五个模式则是弱的负值倾向。IOD负位相增加了南澳大利亚沿岸增量降雨的机会。

9.jpg
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发表于 2013-6-4 15:27 | 显示全部楼层

2013.06.04

A warming eastern Indian Ocean points to a developing negative IOD
温暖的东印度洋暗示着IOD正向负位相发展

All atmospheric and oceanic indicators of ENSO have remained neutral (neither El Niño nor La Niña) since mid2012. While most models suggest that neutral conditions will continue in 2013, it remains possible that a La Niña event could develop later in the year
自从2012年中期开始,所有的大气和海洋指数都保持中性(非厄尔尼诺和拉尼娜状态)。虽然所有的模式都预测今年(2013)中性状态将持续,但也有可能在今年后期发展为拉尼娜
In the tropical Indian Ocean, warmerthanaverage ocean temperatures have persisted in the east, while in recent weeks, ocean temperatures in the western Indian Ocean have cooled slightly. As a result of this pattern, the IOD index has been below 0.4 since mid-May. If this index remains at or below 0.4 until late July, 2013 will be classified as a negative IOD year. Four of the five models surveyed point to a negative IOD during the southern winter-spring period
在热带印度洋东部,海温持续比平均值高,而在最近几周西部海温有所冷却。模式结果显示:自从5月中旬开始IOD指数一直低于-0.4,如果这种状态持续到6月后期,2013年将会成为IOD负位相年。5个中的4个模式预测在南半球的冬-春季节,IOD将发展为负位相。
A negative IOD during winterspring increases the chances of aboveaverage rainfall over southern Australia and increased humidity over parts of northern Australia. The northwest cloudband that tracked across Australia during the first weekend of June is one example of how a negative IOD might influence southern Australia
冬-春季IOD负位相增加了南澳增量降雨的机会,也增加了部分北澳地区的湿度。六月第一周的澳大利亚西北云带是IOD负位相如何影响南澳的一个例子。
Monthly sea surface temperatures:
[/table]
每月海表层温度:

The seasurface temperature (SST) anomaly map for May shows cool SST anomalies across the eastern tropical Pacific and along part of the coast of Peru in South America, a cooling compared to April. SST anomalies are nearaverage across the majority of the remaining tropical Pacific and warm anomalies continue across the Maritime Continent region.

5月海表层气温(SST)距平图显示:部分南美秘鲁沿岸的东太平洋为冷距平,和4月相比有所冷却。热带太平洋其他地区距平接近平均,而海陆地区继续保持暖距平。

指标        4月        5月        温度变化
NINO3        0.1         -0.4         低0.5℃
NINO3.4        0.1         0.1         低0.2℃
NINO4        0.0         -0.1         低0.1℃
1.png
Weekly sea surface temperatures:

每周海表层温度:

When compared with two weeks ago, SST anomalies have warmed in the western equatorial Pacific, cooled in the eastern equatorial Pacific, and remained generally similar in the central region. The map for the week ending 2 June shows negative SST anomalies are present along the equator between the South American coast and 130°W. Elsewhere along the equator SSTs are near average, with warm anomalies in the western Pacific and near the South Pacific Convergence Zone. Warm anomalies also remain around much of the Australian coastline.
和两周前相比,西太平洋赤道海温距平有所暖和,东太平洋赤道有所冷却,而中太平洋赤道则大体保持不变。截至6月2日这一周的距平图表明:南美沿岸到130°W之间赤道的SST为负距平。其他地区赤道SST接近平均,其中洗太平洋和南太平洋辐合带为暖距平,澳大利亚海岸大部分也保持暖距平。
指标        先前        当前        温度变化(两周)
NINO3        -0.3         -0.5         低0.2℃
NINO3.4        -0.1         0.0         高0.1℃
NINO4        0.0         0.2         高0.2℃
2.png
Monthly sub-surface:

每月次表层海温:

The fourmonth sequence of subsurface temperature anomalies (ending May) shows cool anomalies in the subsurface of the eastern to central equatorial Pacific; this pool of cooler than normal water peaked in extent in January and has weakened since. A small area of this pool of coolerthanaverage water is more than3 °C cooler than average for May. Warm anomalies remain present in the sub-surface of the far western equatorial Pacific.

4个月的次表层海温距平图(截至5月)表明:中东太平洋赤道的次表层为冷距平。这边比常温冷的水域在1月份冷却到了峰值,从那以后冷却程度有所减弱。这边水域的部分地区甚至比5月平均低3℃。而次表层暖距平则保持在西太平赤道。

3.png
Weekly sub-surface:

每周次表层海温:

Anomalies in the subsurface of the equatorial Pacific have warmed compared to two weeks ago. The sub-surface map for the 5 days ending 2 June shows anomalies more than 2 °C cooler than average in a small area of the eastern equatorial Pacific subsurface and another area more than 1 °C cooler than average near the Date Line at around 200 m deep. Warm anomalies are still present in the western sub-surface of the equatorial Pacific
.

和两周前相比,东太平洋赤道海温距平有所暖和。5天(截至6月2日)的次表层海温距平图显示:东太平洋赤道部分小面积的次表层海温距平比平均低2℃,东太其他地区比日界线附近200m深海温距平平均值低1℃以上,而暖距平依旧在西太平洋赤道。
4.png
S
outhern Oscillation Index:

南方波动指数:

The Southern Oscillation Index (SOI) has risen steeply over the last two weeks. The latest 30-day SOI value to 2 June is
+
10.2.

过去两周,南方波动指数(
SOI)大幅提升,截至6月2日的最近30天SOI指数为+10.2。

Sustained positive values of the SOI above
+
8 may indicate a La Niña event, while sustained negative values below
-
8 may indicate an El Niño event. Values of between about
+
8 and -
8 generally indicate neutral conditions.
[table=100%,#ffffff]

持续的大于8.0的正指数可能预示拉尼娜事件的发生,同样,持续低于-8将预示厄尔尼诺事件的发生,那么在8和-8之间就是中性状态。
5.png
Trade winds:
信风:

Trade winds have weakened slightly in the far western tropical Pacific during the past two weeks and are now near average across the entire tropical Pacific (see anomaly map for the 5 days ending 2 June).
过去两周热带太平洋西部的信风有所减弱并且现在整个热带太平洋信风接近平均(详见截至6月2日的5天距平图)。
During La Niña events, there is a sustained strengthening of the trade winds across much of the tropical Pacific, while during El Niño events there is a sustained weakening of the trade winds.
在拉尼娜盛行时,大部分热带太平洋的信风持续偏强,而厄尔尼诺时信风偏弱。
6.png
Cloudiness near the Date Line:
日界线附近云量:

Cloudiness near the Date Line has been near or slightly below average during the past two weeks.
过去两周,日界线附近云量接近平均或比平均略少。
Cloudiness along the equator, near the Date Line, is an important indicator of ENSO conditions, as it typically increases (negative OLR anomalies) near and to the east of the Date Line during an El Niño event and decreases (positive OLR anomalies) during a La Niña event.
日界线赤道附近的云量是ENSO状态的重要指标,每当厄尔尼诺发生时,日界线附近及以东海域的云量会特别的增加(OLR为负距平),而在拉尼娜发生时会减少(OLR为正距平)。
7.png
Climate Models:
气候模式:

Most international climate models surveyed by the Bureau indicate that SSTs in the equatorial Pacific Ocean are likely to remain neutral at least until the southern hemisphere spring. Some climate models show a small chance of La Niña developing later in the year.
气象局提供的多数国际气候模式表明:赤道太平洋的SST中性状态将至少保持到南半球的春季。一些模式暗示今年晚期有小部分机会发展成拉尼娜事件。
8.png
Indian Ocean Dipole:
印度洋偶极子:

The Indian Ocean Dipole (IOD) shows a negative pattern following cooling of the western Indian Ocean in recent weeks; the eastern tropical Indian Ocean and waters surrounding Western Australia have remained consistently warm. The IOD index value has been below the threshold value (-0.4) since mid-May, with the latest value -0.5 °C for the week ending 2 June.
随着最近几周西印度洋的冷却,印度洋偶极子出现在负位相;东热带印度洋以及西澳海水保持持续温暖,自从5月中旬以来,IOD指数一直比临界值-0.4低,截至6月2日这一周的最新值为-0.5。
Current model outlooks suggest this pattern of ocean temperatures, and hence the low values of he IOD Index, will persist through the southern hemisphere winter and into spring. Four of the five models surveyed indicate a negative IOD event, while the fifth indicates weaker negative values of the index. A negative IOD during winter-spring increases the chances of above-average rainfall over southern Australia, and increased humidity over parts of northern Australia.
当前模式预测表明印度洋海温这种模式,以及这种模式下的低IOD指数将从南半球的冬季保持到春季。5个中的4个模式支持IOD负位相,而模式IOD指数为轻微的负值。冬-春季IOD负位相增加了南澳增量降雨的机会,也增加了部分北澳地区的湿度。
9.png
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发表于 2013-6-19 10:27 | 显示全部楼层

2013.06.18

ENSO neutral; a negative IOD likely for southern winter-spring
ENSO中性;在南半球冬春季IOD趋于负相
Despite a recent cooling trend in the far eastern tropical Pacific, ENSO indicators have generally remained neutral (neither El Niño nor La Niña) since mid2012. While the vast majority of climate models surveyed by the Bureau suggest neutral ENSO conditions will persist through the winter, the development of La Niña in 2013 cannot be fully ruled out.
尽管目前东热带太平洋的海温有冷却的趋势,但从2012年中期开始到现ENSO指数大体保持中性(非厄尔尼诺和拉尼娜状态)。气象局提供的大部分气候模式支持ENSO中性状态将维持整个冬季,2013年拉尼娜事件将不会发生。
[/table]
In the tropical Indian Ocean, warmerthanaverage sea surface temperatures (SSTs) have persisted in the east, while SSTs in the western Indian Ocean have cooled over the past month or two. As a result of this pattern, the Indian Ocean Dipole (IOD) index has been below -0.4 °C since midMay. If this index remains at, or below, -0.4 °C until late July, then 2013 will be classified as a negative IOD year. All climate models surveyed now predict a negative IOD during the southern winter-spring period.
在热带印度洋东部,海表层温度比平均值高,而最近1到2个月西部海温有所冷却。这这种情况下,从5月中旬开始IOD指数一直低于-0.4℃。如果到6月后期这个指数能够一直保持或低于-0.4℃,那么2013年将会是IOD负相年。所有的模式预测:在南半球冬春季IOD回归负相。
A negative IOD during winter-spring increases the chances of above-average rainfall over southern Australia, and the humidity over parts of northern Australia. The northwest cloudband that tracked across Australia during the first weekend of June is one example of how a negative IOD can influence southern Australia.

冬春季IOD负相将增加南澳超量降雨和部分北澳地区湿度的机会。6月第一个周末澳大利亚西北云带是IOD负相如何影响南澳的一个例子。
Monthly sea surface temperatures:

每月海表层温度:
The sea surface temperature (SST) anomaly map for May shows cool SST anomalies across the eastern tropical Pacific and along part of the coast of Peru in South America, a cooling compared with April. SST anomalies are near-average across the majority of the remaining tropical Pacific and warm anomalies continue across the Maritime Continent region.
5月的海表层温度(SST)距平图表明:东热带太平洋和部分南美秘鲁沿岸为冷距平,这些地区的SST4月相比有所冷却。大部分其他热带太平洋海区的SST距平接近平均而海陆区域继续保持暖距平。

xx.png
1.jpg

Weekly sea surface temperatures:

每周海表层温度:
SST anomalies across the equatorial Pacific have generally moved closer to average during the past fortnight; cooling slightly in the west and warming in the east. For the week ending 16 June, negative SST anomalies lie along parts of the equator east of 130
°W
(see map below). Weak warm SSTs are present around the Maritime Continent in the far western Pacific, near the South Pacific Convergence Zone and around much of the Australian coastline. Anomalies are near average across the central tropical Pacific.

过去两周,赤道太平洋西部的SST距平有降低东部有所升高,整个赤道太平洋SST距平接近平均。截至6月16日这一周,130°W以东赤道为负距平(见下图)。目前西太平洋海陆区域、近南太平洋辐合带区以及大部分澳大利亚海岸为微弱的暖距平。热带太平洋中部的距平接近平均。


QQ截图20130619102929.png 2.jpg
Monthly sub-surface:

每月次表层海温:

The fourmonth sequence of subsurface temperature anomalies (ending May) shows cool anomalies in the subsurface of the eastern to central equatorial Pacific; this pool of cooler than normal water peaked in extent in January and has weakened since. A small area of this pool of coolerthanaverage water is more than3cooler than average for May. Warm anomalies remain present in the subsurface of the far western equatorial Pacific.

4个月(截至5月)的次表层海温距平图表明:赤道太平洋中部到东部的次表层海温为冷距平,
比常温冷的水域在1月份冷却到了峰值,从那以后冷却程度有所减弱。这边水域的部分地区甚至比5月平均低3℃。而次表层暖距平则保持在西太平赤道。

3.jpg

Weekly sub-surface:

每周次表层海温:

Anomalies in the subsurface of the eastern equatorial Pacific have warmed compared with two weeks ago. The subsurface map for the 5 days ending 16 June shows anomalies 2 to 3  warmer than average in a small area of the subsurface of the eastern equatorial Pacific, around 120°W at 80 m depth. Cool anomalies remain across the sub-surface between 160°E and 140°W, and are generally around 1 cooler than average. Warm anomalies are still present in the western subsurface, but have weakened when compared with two weeks ago.

和两周前相比,东太平洋赤道海温距平有所
升高
。5天(截至6月
16
日)的次表层海温距平图显示:东太平洋赤道部分小面积
以及120°W 附近80米深水域的
次表层海温距平比平均
2
-3
。次表层海温冷距平则保持在160°E到140°W之间区域,这些区域比平均低1℃。而目前暖距平依旧在西太平洋次表层,和两周前相比有所减弱。

4.jpg

Southern Oscillation Index:

南方波动指数:

The Southern Oscillation Index (SOI) has fluctuated around values in the low teens over the last two weeks. The latest 30-day SOI value to 2 June is
+
11.3.

最近两周,南方波动指数(
SOI)的波动范围不大,截至6月2日的最近30天SOI值为+11.3。

Sustained positive values of the SOI above
+
8 may indicate a La Niña event, while sustained negative values below
-
8 may indicate an El Niño event. Values of between about
+
8 and
-
8 generally indicate neutral conditions.

持续的大于8.0的正指数可能预示拉尼娜事件的发生,同样,持续低于-8将预示厄尔尼诺事件的发生,那么在8和-8之间就是中性状态。

5.jpg

Trade winds:

信风:

Trade winds have generally strengthened slightly over the tropical Pacific during the past two weeks. The anomaly map for the 5 days ending 16 June shows trade winds are stronger than average over the western tropical Pacific, slightly stronger than average over the central tropical Pacific and near average in the east.

过去两周热带太平洋的信风有所
增强。截至
616日的5天距平图显示:热带太平洋西部的信风比平均强,比热带太平洋中部和东部的平均略强。

During La Niña events, there is a sustained strengthening of the trade winds across much of the tropical Pacific, while during El Niño events there is a sustained weakening of the trade winds.

在拉尼娜盛行时,大部分热带太平洋的信风持续偏强,而厄尔尼诺时信风偏弱。



6.png

Cloudiness near the Date Line:

日界线附近云量:


Cloudiness near the Date Line has been fluctuated during the past two weeks but generally remains near average.

过去两周日界线附近云量有所波动但大体接近平均。

Cloudiness along the equator, near the Date Line, is an important indicator of ENSO conditions, as it typically increases (negative OLR anomalies) near and to the east of the Date Line during an El Niño event and decreases (positive OLR anomalies) during a La Niña event.

日界线赤道附近的云量是ENSO状态的重要指标,每当厄尔尼诺发生时,日界线附近及以东海域的云量会特别的增加(OLR为负距平),而在拉尼娜发生时会减少(OLR为正距平)。



7.png

Climate Models:

气候模式:

Most international
climate models
surveyed by the Bureau indicate that SSTs in the equatorial Pacific Ocean are likely to remain neutral until at least the southern hemisphere spring, however the Bureau of Meteorology\'s model suggests there is a small chance of weak La Niña conditions forming during the winter months.

气象局提供的多数国际气候模式表明:赤道太平洋的SST中性状态将至少保持到南半球的春季。
而气象局的气象
模式暗示
:在冬季数月里仍
有小部分机会发展成
微弱的
拉尼娜事件。

[table=100%,#ffffff]

8.png


Indian Ocean Dipole:

印度洋偶极子:

The Indian Ocean Dipole (IOD) currently shows a negative pattern. The western Indian Ocean has steadily cooled; negative anomalies now extend down Somalia and into Kenyan waters, and northwards around the Arabian Peninsula. The IOD index value has been below the threshold value (-0.4 ℃) since mid-May, with the latest value -0.5 ℃for the week ending 16 June. The index will need to remain at these values for several more weeks for 2013 to be considered a negative IOD year.
目前的印度洋偶极子(IOD)表明了负相的趋势。印度洋西部稳步冷却;负距平从索马里扩展到肯尼亚以及阿拉伯半岛北部水域。自从5月中旬,IOD指数一直低于临界值(-0.4℃),截至6月16日这周最新值为-0.5℃。如果这个数值再多维持几个星期,2013年将被认为是IOD负相年。
All five models surveyed in the model outlooks suggest a negative IOD event is likely during the southern hemisphere winter and will persist into spring. A negative IOD during winterspring increases the chances of aboveaverage rainfall over southern Australia, and increased humidity over parts of northern Australia.
所有的5个模式预测:IOD负相事件将可能从南半球冬季维持到春季。冬春季IOD负相将增加南澳超量降雨和部分北澳地区湿度的机会。
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