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[定期翻译] ENSO监测翻译

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资深会员-热带辐合带

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发表于 2013-7-2 14:47 | 显示全部楼层

2013.07.02

ENSO neutral; a negative IOD likely for southern winter-spring
[/table]
[table=100%,#ffffff]ENSO中性;南半球冬春季IOD趋于负相
The majority of El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO) indicators have remained neutral since mid-2012. While the surface waters of the eastern Pacific have cooled recently, they are not supported by equally cool waters beneath the surface. Hence climate models suggest a neutral ENSO pattern will persist into the austral spring. However, the development of La Niña in 2013 cannot be totally ruled out yet.
自从2012年中期,大部分ENSO指数保持中性。虽然最近东太平洋海水表面温度有所冷却,但并不支持表面以下海温也冷却。因此气候模式表明中性ENSO模式将持续到澳大利亚的春季。而2013年拉尼娜事件将不会发生。
In the tropical Indian Ocean, the current sea surface temperature pattern is typical of a negative Indian Ocean Dipole (IOD) event, and hence the IOD index has been below -0.4℃ since mid-May. If this index remains at, or below, -0.4℃ until mid-to-late July, then 2013 will be classified as a negative IOD year. All climate models surveyed predict a negative IOD during the southern winter-spring period.
在热带印度洋,当前的海温模式是IOD负相事件的典型表现,自从5月中旬开始,IOD指数低于-0.4℃。如果这个指数一直保持或低于-0.4℃到7月中旬后期,2013年将会是IOD负相年。所有的气候模式都支持在南半球冬春季IOD负相事件。
A negative IOD during winter-spring increases the chances of above-average rainfall over southern Australia, and over parts of northern Australia it increases the chance of higher humidity. The northwest cloudbands that have tracked across Australia over the past month or two are examples of how a negative IOD can influence southern Australia.
冬春季IOD负相将增加南澳超量降雨以及增加部分北澳地区湿度的机会。过去1、2个月澳大利亚西北云带是IOD负相如何影响南澳的一个例子。
Monthly sea surface temperatures:

每月海表层温度:

The sea surface temperature (SST) anomaly map for May shows cool SST anomalies across the eastern tropical Pacific and along part of the coast of Peru in South America, a cooling compared with April. SST anomalies are near-average across the majority of the remaining tropical Pacific and warm anomalies continue across the Maritime Continent region.
5月的海表层温度(SST)距平图显示:东热带太平洋以及部分南美秘鲁沿岸为冷距平,和3月相比又有所冷却。其他大部分热带太平洋地区SST距平接近平均,而暖距平继续保持在海陆区域。
指数        4月        5月        温度变化
NINO3        +0.1        -0.4        低0.5℃
NINO3.4        +0.1        +0.1        不变
NINO4        0.0        -0.0        低0.1℃
1.gif
Weekly sea surface temperatures:
每周海表层温度:

Compared to two weeks ago, negative SST anomalies have strengthened in the far eastern equatorial Pacific while remaining generally similar and warming slightly in the west. While notable at the surface, these cool anomalies are not supported by the sub-surface (see next section) and are therefore expected to be transitory. For the week ending 30 June, negative SST anomalies lie along much of the equator east of 130°W and extend southward along the South American coast (see map below). Weak warm SST anomalies are present around the Maritime Continent, northeast of Australia in the western Pacific, near the South Pacific Convergence Zone (SPCZ) and along Australia’s southern coastline. Anomalies are near average across the central tropical Pacific.
和两周前相比,东太平洋赤道负距平有所加强而西太平洋则保持相似或略有暖和。虽然表层海温变化显著但次表层(见下部分)不明显,因此表层海温这种变化是短暂的。截至6月30日这周,130°W赤道一直向南延伸到南美沿岸为负距平(见下图)。而微弱的暖距平则出现在海陆地区、位于西太平洋的澳大利亚东北部、南太平洋辐合带地区以及澳大利亚西部沿岸。中热带太平洋距平接近平均。
指数        先前        当前        温度变化
NINO3        -0.3        -0.4        低0.2℃
NINO3.4        0.0        0.0        不变
NINO4        +0.1        +0.3        高0.2℃
2.gif
Monthly sub-surface:

每月次表层海温:

The four-month sequence of sub-surface temperature anomalies (ending June) shows both cool and warm anomalies in the sub-surface of the equatorial Pacific have moved closer to average over the past month. Small areas of slightly cooler than average water remain in the sub-surface of the eastern equatorial Pacific; above 100 m depth in the far east and around 100 m deep at 150°W. These cool anomalies peaked in extent in January and have weakened since. There are warm anomalies present in the sub-surface west of the Date Line. The magnitude of both the cool and warm anomalies is less than 2 °C across nearly all of their extent.
4个月(截至6月)的次表层海温距平显示:过去几个月赤道太平洋的次表层冷暖距平接近平均。东太平洋赤道、远东低于100m深水域以及150°W的100m深水域有小面积地区比平均稍冷。这些冷水域在1月达到峰值,从那以后冷却程度有所减弱。日界线以西的次表层为暖距平。所有冷暖距平的的程度都在2℃以内。
3.gif
Weekly sub-surface:

每周次表层海温:

Anomalies in the subsurface of the eastern equatorial Pacific remain generally similar to those of two weeks ago, although the central equatorial Pacific has warmed slightly and is now near average. The sub-surface map for the 5 days ending 30 June shows anomalies 2 to 3 °C warmer than average in the eastern equatorial Pacific, around 110°W at 50 m depth. Anomalies across the remainder of the basin are near average.
过去两周东太平洋赤道次表层海温距平保持相似,虽然中太平洋赤道有轻微暖和但现在接近平均。截至6月30日的5天次表层距平图表明:东太平洋赤道以及110°W50m深水域比平均暖2-3℃。其他水域距平接近平均。
4.gif
Southern Oscillation Index:

南方波动指数:

The Southern Oscillation Index (SOI) has dipped then again risen over the last two weeks. The latest 30-day SOI value to 30 June is +13.9. The recent high values of the SOI reflect surface patterns of cool SSTs in the eastern Pacific and warm SSTs in the west. Like the cool SSTs, the high SOI values are also not expected to persist.
南方波动指数(SOI)在下降了后又在过去两周上升。截至6月30日的最近30天的SOI指数为+13.9。最近的高SOI指数表明东太平洋为冷距平而西太平洋为暖距平。和冷海表层温度一样,高SOI指数不会持续。
Sustained positive values of the SOI above +8 may indicate a La Niña event, while sustained negative values below −8 may indicate an El Niño event. Values of between about +8 and −8 generally indicate neutral conditions.
持续的大于8.0的正SOI指数可能预示拉尼娜事件的发生,同样,持续低于-8将预示厄尔尼诺事件的发生,那么在8和-8之间就是中性状态。
5.png
Trade winds:

信风:

Trade winds over the western tropical Pacific have weakened during the past two weeks. The anomaly map for the 5 days ending 30 June shows trade winds are near average over the majority of the tropical Pacific.
过去两周热带太平洋西部的信风减弱,截至6月30日的5天距平图表明大部分热带太平洋的信风接近平均。
During La Niña events, there is a sustained strengthening of the trade winds across much of the tropical Pacific, while during El Niño events there is a sustained weakening of the trade winds.
在拉尼娜盛行时,大部分热带太平洋的信风持续偏强,而厄尔尼诺时信风偏弱。
6.gif
Cloudiness near the Date Line:

日界线附近云量:

Cloudiness near the Date Line has fluctuated during the past two weeks but generally remains near average.
过去两周日界线附近的云量有所波动但总体接近平均。
Cloudiness along the equator, near the Date Line, is an important indicator of ENSO conditions, as it typically increases (negative OLR anomalies) near and to the east of the Date Line during an El Niño event and decreases (positive OLR anomalies) during a La Niña event.
日界线赤道附近的云量是ENSO状态的重要指标,每当厄尔尼诺发生时,日界线附近及以东海域的云量会特别的增加(OLR为负距平),而在拉尼娜发生时会减少(OLR为正距平)。
7.gif
Climate Models:

气候模式:

Most international climate models surveyed by the Bureau indicate that SSTs in the equatorial Pacific Ocean are likely to remain neutral until at least the southern hemisphere spring, however the Bureau of Meteorology\'s model suggests there is a small chance of weak La Niña conditions forming during the winter months.
气象局提供的多数国际气候模式表明:赤道太平洋的SST中性状态将至少保持到南半球的春季。而气象局的气象模式暗示:在冬季数月里仍有小部分机会发展成微弱的拉尼娜事件。
8.png
Indian Ocean Dipole:

印度洋偶极子:

The Indian Ocean Dipole (IOD) continues to show a negative pattern. The IOD index value has been below the threshold value (−0.4 °C) since mid-May, with the latest value −0.6 °C for the week ending 30 June. If the index remains at, or below, −0.4 °C until mid-to-late July, 2013 will be classified as a negative IOD year.
印度洋偶极子(IOD)继续表明负相的趋势。印度洋西部稳步冷却;负距平从索马里扩展到肯尼亚以及阿拉伯半岛北部水域。自从5月中旬,IOD指数一直低于临界值(-0.4℃),截至6月16日这周最新值为-0.5℃。如果这个数值再多维持几个星期,2013年将被认为是IOD负相年。
All five models surveyed in the model outlooks suggest a negative IOD event is likely during the southern hemisphere winter and will persist into spring. A negative IOD during winter-spring increases the chances of above-average rainfall over southern Australia, and increased humidity over parts of northern Australia.
所有的5个模式预测:IOD负相事件将可能从南半球冬季维持到春季。冬春季IOD负相将增加南澳超量降雨和部分北澳地区湿度的机会。
9.png
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发表于 2013-7-16 20:48 | 显示全部楼层

2013.07.16

ENSO neutral; negative IOD
ENSO中性;IOD负相

The tropical Pacific remains El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO) neutral. The cooling trend observed in the eastern Pacific during June has reversed in the past fortnight, with temperatures now generally closer to average than they were in early July. Most climate models suggest a neutral ENSO pattern will persist at least into the austral spring.
热带太平洋的ENSO状态维持中性。6月份东太平洋有冷却趋势,但这个趋势已经在过去两周逆转,现在的水温已经比7月初更接近平均。多数模式预测这种中性状态将至少维持到南半球的春季。
In the tropical Indian Ocean, a negative Indian Ocean Dipole (IOD) event is in progress, with the IOD index below −0.4 °C since mid-May. The majority of climate models surveyed predict this event to persist through the southern winter-spring period.
自从5月中旬开始,热带印度洋的IOD指数一直低于-0.4℃,说明IOD负相事件正在发展。大部分气候模式预测这个事件将持续整个冬春季。
A negative IOD during winter-spring increases the chances of above-average rainfall over southern Australia, and over parts of northern Australia it increases the chance of higher humidity. The northwest cloudbands which tracked across Australia over the past month or two are examples of how a negative IOD can influence southern Australia.
冬春季IOD负相将增加南澳超量降雨以及增加部分北澳地区湿度的机会。过去1、2个月澳大利亚西北云带是IOD负相如何影响南澳的一个例子。
Monthly sea surface temperatures:

每月海表层温度:

The sea surface temperature (SST) anomaly map for June shows cool SST anomalies across the eastern tropical Pacific and along part of the Peruvian coast. This pattern is generally similar to that of the previous month. Warm anomalies continue across the Maritime Continent and South Pacific Convergence Zone (SPCZ), with anomalies having strengthened somewhat over the region east of Papua New Guinea. SST anomalies are near-average across the majority of the remaining tropical Pacific.
6月的海表层温度(SST)距平图显示:东热带太平洋以及部分南美秘鲁沿岸为冷距平,这种趋势和一个月前相似。随着最近巴布亚新几内亚东部距平的加强,海陆地区以及南太平洋幅合区(SPCZ)保持暖距平。其他大部分热带太平洋地区SST距平接近平均。
指数        5月         6月        温度变化
NINO3        −0.4        −0.4        不变
NINO3.4        −0.1         0.0        高0.1 °C
NINO4        +0.1        +0.2        高0.1 °C
1.gif
Weekly sea surface temperatures:

每周海表层温度:

Compared to two weeks ago, negative SST anomalies have weakened in the eastern equatorial Pacific and adjacent to the coast of Peru. Cool anomalies are now also seen in the subsurface of the far eastern equatorial Pacific, which wasn’t so two weeks ago (refer to the weekly sub-surface map in the following section). Warm anomalies have been slightly reduced around the Maritime Continent and near the South Pacific Convergence Zone (SPCZ). The map for the week ending 14 July shows anomalies are near average across the central tropical Pacific.
和两周前相比,东太平洋赤道和靠近秘鲁沿岸地区的负距平有所减弱。目前东太平洋赤道的次表层海温距平为冷距平,但在两周前并没有出现冷距平(详见下部分次表层距平图)。海陆地区和南太平洋幅合区的暖距平也有所减弱。截至7月14日这一周的距平图显示中太平洋海温距平接近平均。
指数        先前        当前        温度变化(两周)
NINO3        −0.4        −0.4        没变化
NINO3.4         0.0        −0.1        低0.1 °C
NINO4        +0.3        +0.3        没变化
2.gif
Monthly sub-surface:

每月次表层海温:

The four-month sequence of sub-surface temperature anomalies (ending June) shows both cool and warm anomalies in the sub-surface of the equatorial Pacific have moved closer to average over the past month. Small areas of slightly cooler than average water remain in the sub-surface of the eastern equatorial Pacific; above 100 m depth in the far east and around 100 m deep at 150°W. These cool anomalies peaked in extent in January and have weakened since. There are warm anomalies present in the sub-surface west of the Date Line. The magnitude of both the cool and warm anomalies is less than 2 °C across nearly all of their extent.
4个月(截至6月)的次表层海温距平显示:过去几个月赤道太平洋的次表层冷暖距平接近平均。东太平洋赤道、远东低于100m深水域以及150°W的100m深水域有小面积地区比平均稍冷。这些冷水域在1月达到峰值,从那以后冷却程度有所减弱。日界线以西的次表层为暖距平。所有冷暖距平的的程度都在2℃以内。
3.gif
Weekly sub-surface:

每周次表层海温:

The sub-surface of the eastern equatorial Pacific has cooled compared to two weeks ago, though remain fairly close to normal. Anomalies generally remain similar in the west. The sub-surface map for the 5 days ending 14 July shows anomalies 1 to 2 °C cooler than average in the eastern equatorial Pacific, around 110°W between 50 and 100 m depth, and also in the western sub-surface at 200 m depth around 170°W. Anomalies across the remainder of the basin are near average.
和过去两周相比,东太平洋赤道次表层海温接近平均,但有所冷却。而西太平则大体保持相似。截至7月14日的5天次表层距平图表明:东太平洋赤道、110°W附近50-100m深水域以及西太平170°W200m深水域距平比平均低1-2℃。
4.gif
Southern Oscillation Index:

南方波动指数:

The Southern Oscillation Index (SOI) has fallen slowly over the last two weeks. The latest 30-day SOI value to 14 July is +8.2.
过去两周SOI指数缓慢降低,截至7月14日的最近30天最新值为+8.2。
Sustained positive values of the SOI above +8 may indicate a La Niña event, while sustained negative values below −8 may indicate an El Niño event. Values of between about +8 and −8 generally indicate neutral conditions.
持续的大于8.0的正SOI指数可能预示拉尼娜事件的发生,同样,持续低于-8将预示厄尔尼诺事件的发生,那么在8和-8之间就是中性状态。
5.png
Trade winds:

信风:

Trade winds over the tropical Pacific strengthened slightly during the past two weeks and are near average over the majority of the tropical Pacific. Trade winds over the tropical Pacific north of 5°N are slightly stronger than average (see anomaly map for the 5 days ending 14 July).
过去两周热带太平洋的信风有所加强并且接近平均,而热带太平洋5°N位置的信风比平均强(详见截至7月14日的5天距平图)
During La Niña events, there is a sustained strengthening of the trade winds across much of the tropical Pacific, while during El Niño events there is a sustained weakening of the trade winds.
在拉尼娜盛行时,大部分热带太平洋的信风持续偏强,而厄尔尼诺时信风偏弱。
6.gif
Cloudiness near the Date Line:

日界线附近云量:

Cloudiness near the Date Line has fluctuated during the past two weeks but generally remains near average.
过去两周日界线附近的云量有所波动但总体接近平均。
Cloudiness along the equator, near the Date Line, is an important indicator of ENSO conditions, as it typically increases (negative OLR anomalies) near and to the east of the Date Line during an El Niño event and decreases (positive OLR anomalies) during a La Niña event.
日界线赤道附近的云量是ENSO状态的重要指标,每当厄尔尼诺发生时,日界线附近及以东海域的云量会特别的增加(OLR为负距平),而在拉尼娜发生时会减少(OLR为正距平)。
7.gif
Climate Models:

气候模式:

Most international climate models surveyed by the Bureau indicate that SSTs in the equatorial Pacific Ocean are likely to remain neutral into the southern hemisphere summer. The Bureau of Meteorology\'s model suggests there is a small chance of NINO3.4 briefly passing La Niña thresholds during late winter or early spring.
气象局提供的多数国际气候模式表明:赤道太平洋的SST中性状态将至少保持到南半球的夏季。气象局的气候模式同样表明在晚冬或早春仍有小部分几率使NINO3.4短暂的突破拉尼娜临界值。
8.png
Indian Ocean Dipole:

印度洋偶极子:

The Indian Ocean Dipole (IOD) continues to show a negative pattern, with the IOD index value −0.7 °C for the week ending 14 July. As the IOD index has been below the threshold value (−0.4 °C) since mid-May, 2013 will be classified as a negative IOD year.
印度洋偶极子(IOD)继续表明负相的趋势,截至7月14日这一周最新的IOD指数为-0.7℃。自从5月中旬,IOD指数一直低于临界值(-0.4℃),2013年将被认为是IOD负相年。
Climate models surveyed in the model outlooks indicate a negative IOD event will persist well into spring, before decaying by December. A negative IOD during winter-spring increases the chances of above-average rainfall over southern Australia, and increased humidity over parts of northern Australia.
气候模式预测:IOD负相事件将可能从维持到南半球春季(在12月衰弱前)。冬春季IOD负相将增加南澳超量降雨和部分北澳地区湿度的机会。
9.png
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发表于 2013-8-23 21:40 | 显示全部楼层

2013.08.13

Negative IOD remains the key Australian climate influence
IOD负事件继续成为影响澳大利亚气候的主要因素

The El NiñoSouthern Oscillation (ENSO) clearly remains in the neutral phase despite some indicators (e.g. eastern Pacific sea surface temperatures, Southern Oscillation Index (SOI) and cloudiness near the Date Line) approaching La Niña thresholds at times in recent months.
尽管最近数月的某些时间段有一些指数(东太平洋海表层温度、南方波动指数以及日界线附近的云量)达到拉尼娜临界值,但厄尔尼诺-南方波动(ENSO)状态还是维持中性。
Climate models surveyed by the Bureau of Meteorology indicate further cooling of waters in the tropical Pacific is unlikely. Hence, the current ENSOneutral conditions are expected to continue through the austral spring and into summer.
气象局提供的气候模式表明热带太平洋海温进一步冷却状态将不会持续。因此当前ENSO中性状态将至少从南半球的春季维持到夏季。
In the tropical Indian Ocean, sea surface temperature patterns remain consistent with a negative Indian Ocean Dipole (IOD) event. The IOD index has been below the threshold value of -0.4 °C since midMay, though values have eased back over the past three weeks. The majority of climate models expect this negative IOD event to persist until at least midspring. A negative IOD during winterspring increases the chances of aboveaverage rainfall over southern Australia, while over parts of northern Australia it increases the chance of higher humidity. A negative IOD can also contribute to belowaverage mean sea level pressure (MSLP) over Darwin, which may in turn raise the value of the SOI.
在热带印度洋,海表层温度模式与IOD负事件保持一致。自从5月中旬开始IOD指数一直低于-0.4℃的临界值,而过去3周IOD指数有所回升。大部分气候模式预测IOD负事件将至少持续到春季中期以后。冬春季节IOD负事件将增加南澳超量降雨的机会,并增加部分北澳地区高湿度的机会。IOD负事件也会导致Darwin地区的海平面气压低于平均,同时使SOI指数升高。
Monthly sea surface temperatures:
每月海表层温度:

The sea surface temperature (SST) anomaly map for July 2013 shows cool SST anomalies across the eastern tropical Pacific and along the Peruvian coast. This pattern is generally similar to that of the previous month, although anomalies along the equator have weakened. Warm anomalies persist across the Maritime Continent, South Pacific Convergence Zone (SPCZ) and along Australia’s southern coastline. SST anomalies are near-average across the central tropical Pacific
2013年7月的海表层温度距平图显示东太平洋、秘鲁沿岸地区为冷距平。这种温度模式与前一个月大体相似,尽管赤道地区的距平有所减弱。而暖距平则出现在海陆区域、南太平洋辐合带(SPCZ)以及澳大利亚南海岸。中太平洋距平接近平均。
指数                 6月            7月        温度变化
NINO3           -0.4             -0.3        高0.1 °C
NINO3.4         0.0             -0.1        低0.1 °C
NINO4            +0.2           +0.2       不变
1.gif
Weekly sea surface temperatures:
每周海表层温度:

The anomaly map for the week ending 11 August 2013 shows near-average SSTs across the central tropical Pacific, cool anomalies in the eastern tropical Pacific and along the South American coast (from Ecuador to northern Chile) and warm anomalies in the western Pacific and around the SPCZ. Warm anomalies around the Maritime Continent have weakened slightly during the past two weeks while those along the southern coast of Australia have strengthened. Cool anomalies have also strengthened in the far eastern tropical Pacific with much of the ocean surface east of 110°W more than 1.0 °C cooler than average.
截至2013年8月11日这一周的距平图表明中太平洋接近平均,冷距平出现在东太平洋和南美沿岸(从厄瓜多尔到智利北部),而暖距平则在西太平洋和SPCZ地区。过去两周海陆地区的暖距平有轻微减弱而澳大利亚南岸有所加强。东太平洋的冷距平也有所加强,110°W以东海表层低于平均1℃以上。
指数               先前              当前        温度变化(两周)
NINO3           -0.4               -0.5               低0.1 °C
NINO3.4         0.0               -0.2               低0.2 °C
NINO4           +0.2             +0.1              低0.1 °C  
2.gif
Monthly sub-surface:
每月次表层海温:

The four-month sequence of sub-surface temperature anomalies shows temperatures in the sub-surface of the equatorial Pacific were generally close to the long-term average for July. Small areas of cool anomalies remain in the far eastern equatorial Pacific between the surface and around 150 m depth. In the western equatorial sub-surface weak warm anomalies are present in much of the water column west of the Date Line. Small areas of both the cool and warm anomalies reach a magnitude of more than 1.0 °C. Sub-surface temperatures have been trending towards average during recent months, as shown by the decreased magnitude of both cool and warm anomalies.
4个月的次表层海温距平图显示赤道太平洋次表层接近7月长期平均值。东太平洋有小部分水域表层到150m深的水温维持冷距平,而在日界线以西的西太平洋赤道海温则保持微弱的暖距平,其中部分地区暖距平和冷距平超过1℃。最近几个月冷暖距平幅度有所缓和,次表层海温趋势接近平均。
3.gif
Weekly sub-surface:
每周次表层海温:

The sub-surface of the equatorial Pacific has cooled in the east during the past two weeks. Anomalies across the equatorial sub-surface are generally near-average (see map for the 5 days ending 11 August).
过去两周东太平洋赤道次表层海温有所冷却,赤道太平洋海温距平接近平均(详情见 截至8月11日的5天距平图)
4.gif
Southern Oscillation Index:
南方波动指数:

The Southern Oscillation Index (SOI) has changed little over the last two weeks. The latest approximate 30-day SOI value to 11 August is +7.0.
过去两周南方波动指数(SOI)变化不大,截至8月11日的最近30天SOI指数为+7.0
Sustained positive values of the SOI above +8 may indicate a La Niña event, while sustained negative values below -8 may indicate an El Niño event. Values of between about +8 and -8 generally indicate neutral conditions.
持续的大于8.0的正指数可能预示拉尼娜事件的发生,同样,持续低于-8将预示厄尔尼诺事件的发生,那么在8和-8之间就是中性状态。
5.png
Trade winds:
信风:

Trade winds have strengthened over the western half of the tropical Pacific during the past two weeks. Trade winds are slightly stronger than average over the western tropical Pacific and near-average elsewhere (see anomaly map for the 5 days ending 11 August).
过去两周西太平的信风有所加强。西太平洋的信风比平均略强而其他地方接近平均(详情见 截至8月11日的5天距平图)
During La Niña events, there is a sustained strengthening of the trade winds across much of the tropical Pacific, while during El Niño events there is a sustained weakening of the trade winds.
在拉尼娜盛行时,大部分热带太平洋的信风持续偏强,而厄尔尼诺时信风偏弱。
6.gif
Cloudiness near the Date Line:
日界线的云量:
Cloudiness near the Date Line has been below average over the past two weeks. Cloudiness near the Date Line has generally been below average since April.
过去两周日界线附近云量接近平均,自从4月以来一直低于平均。
Cloudiness along the equator, near the Date Line, is an important indicator of ENSO conditions, as it typically increases (negative OLR anomalies) near and to the east of the Date Line during an El Niño event and decreases (positive OLR anomalies) during a La Niña event.
日界线赤道附近的云量是ENSO状态的重要指标,每当厄尔尼诺发生时,日界线附近及以东海域的云量会特别的增加(OLR为负距平),而在拉尼娜发生时会减少(OLR为正距平)。
7.gif
Climate Models:
气候模式:

All but one international climate models surveyed by the Bureau indicate that SSTs in the equatorial Pacific Ocean are likely to remain ENSO neutral during the remainder of the southern hemisphere winter and spring. The remaining model shows a small chance of NINO3.4 (the SST index for the central topical Pacific) briefly passing La Niña thresholds during spring.
气象局提供的所有国际气候模式(除了1个之外)表明:赤道太平洋的SST中性状态将在南半球的剩余冬夏季继续保持。剩下一个模式表明在春季仍有小部分几率使NINO3.4(中太平洋SST指数)短暂的突破拉尼娜临界值。
8.png
Indian Ocean Dipole:
印度洋偶极子:
The Indian Ocean Dipole (IOD) index has eased slightly over the last three weeks, with the latest weekly value (11 August) coming in at -0.3 °C. This is the first weekly value since mid-May above -0.4 °C, which is considered the threshold value for a negative IOD event. Despite the recent slight weakening of the index value, sea surface temperature patterns continue to be consistent with a negative dipole event, showing cool anomalies around the Arabian Peninsula and warm anomalies to the south of the Indonesian Archipelago and in the Banda Sea.
过去3周IOD指数有所上升,最新值为-0.3℃,这是自5月中旬以来首次高于-0.4℃(IOD负事件临界值)。尽管最近负指数有所减弱,但海表层温度模式与负事件保持一致。同时表明了阿拉伯半岛的冷距平和印度半岛南部与班达海的暖距平事件。
Climate models surveyed in the model outlooks indicate the negative IOD event is likely to persist until mid-spring. A negative IOD during winter-spring increases the chances of above-average rainfall over southern Australia while over parts of northern Australia it increases the chance of higher humidity.
气候模式预测:IOD负相事件将可能从维持到南半球春季中期。冬春季IOD负相将增加南澳超量降雨和部分北澳地区湿度的机会。

9.png
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资深会员-热带辐合带

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发表于 2013-9-11 22:25 | 显示全部楼层

2013.09.10

Tropical Pacific and Indian oceans both neutral
热带太平洋和印度洋情况保持中性

10-09-2013

The El Nino-Southern Oscillation (ENSO) remains neutral, with virtually all indicators at near-normal levels. Only cloudiness near the Date Line shows a weak La Nina-like signal. International climate models surveyed by the Bureau of Meteorology indicate that the tropical Pacific will remain ENSO-neutral for the remainder of 2013. Only one of the seven models surveyed suggests a brief period of La Nina-like cooling of the tropical Pacific.
圣婴-南方振荡现象 (ENSO) 维持中性,所有 ENSO 指标亦接近正常水平,除了日界线附近云量显示已弱拉尼娜状态。六个国际气候数值模式显示热带太平洋的 ENSO 将在2013年余下时间维持中性,有一个气候模式预报拉尼娜现象将会发生,热带太平洋海温降低至平均值。
The negative Indian Ocean Dipole (IOD) event has weakened considerably over the past month and a half, with IOD-neutral values prevailing since early August. The consensus of climate models is for the IOD to remain neutral for the remainder of the year, suggesting that the 2013 negative IOD is most likely at an end.
热带印度洋偶极子 (IOD) 负相在过去一个半月已经减弱,在八月初数值变为正常。气候数值模式集合预报 IOD 将在本年余下时间维持中性,代表着 2013年的 IOD 负事件已经进入尾声。

Monthly sea surface temperatures
每月海表层温度

sst_monthly (1).gif
The sea surface temperature (SST) anomaly map for August 2013 shows cool SST anomalies across the eastern tropical Pacific and along the Peruvian coast. This pattern is generally similar to that of the previous month, although cool anomalies have become stronger along the equator and those along the South American coast have become weaker. Warm anomalies persist across the Maritime Continent, South Pacific Convergence Zone (SPCZ) and along Australia’s southern coastline, although those around the Maritime Continent have weakened. SST anomalies are near-average across the central tropical Pacific.
2013年8约的海表层温度距平图显示东太平洋及秘鲁对出海岸海温冷距平。相对上月,虽然赤道附近冷距平情况更为严重,以及南美洲海岸冷距平情况1缓和,但整体情况与上月相似。暖距平出现在海陆区域、南太平洋辐合带(SPCZ)及澳大利亚南侧海岸,而海陆区域的暖距平相对上月已经减弱。中太热带太平洋海表层温度接近正常。
           指数           七月
           八月
           温度变化
           NINO3           -0.3           -0.4           低 0.1°C
           NINO3.4           -0.1           -0.2
           低 0.1°C
           NINO4           +0.2           +0.3           高 0.1°C
Weekly sea surface temperatures
每周海表层温度
sst_weekly (1).gif
The anomaly map for the week ending 8 September 2013 shows areas of cool anomalies in the eastern tropical Pacific and along the South American coast (in Ecuador and Peru); there have weakened when compared to two weeks ago. Small areas of the ocean surface east of 120°W are more than 1 °C cooler than average. Warm anomalies in the western Pacific and around the SPCZ remain similar to two weeks ago, while those across the Maritime Continent and northwest of Australia have weakened and are now near-average.
2013年9月2至8日的每周海表层温度距平图显示冷距平出现在东太平洋和南美沿岸(从厄瓜多尔到智利北部),与两周前比较冷距平有所减弱。西经120度以东的一小区域海表层温度比平均值低 1°C。西太平洋与南太平洋辐合带附近区域暖距平情况与两周前相似,惟海陆区域与澳大利亚西北侧海岸暖距平已经减弱,该地海表层温度现已接近平均值。
     指数     先前     当前     温度变化(两周)
     NINO3     -0.3     -0.4     高 0.3°C
     NINO3.4     -0.1     -0.2     高 0.4°C
     NINO4     +0.2     +0.3     高 0.2°C
Monthly sub-surface
每月次表层海温
sub_surf_mon (1).gif
The four-month sequence of sub-surface temperature anomalies (to the end of August) shows waters are slightly cooler than average in the east and weakly warmer than average in much of the water column west of the Date Line. Small areas of moderately cool anomalies remain in the eastern equatorial Pacific between the surface and around 150 m depth. Sub-surface temperatures have broadly been close to the long-term average during the last two months.
四个月的次表层海温距平图(至八月尾)显示图中东面位置次表层海温仍然冷距平,并且换日线以西次表层海温暖距平。东太平洋赤道附近,有小部分区域表层至150米海温维持冷距平。目前次表层海温情况与上两月次表层海温长期平均情况相似。

Weekly sub-surface每周次表层海温
sub_surf_tao (1).gif

The sub-surface of the equatorial Pacific remains generally similar to two weeks ago, with slight cooling near the surface in the east. Sub-surface temperatures are generally near-average (see map for the 5 days ending 8 September).
赤道太平洋的次表层海温与两周前情况大致相似,惟东太平洋次表层海温相比两周前稍有降温。次表层海温整体情况接近平均值(详情见截至9月8日的5天距平图) 。

Southern Oscillation Index南方振荡指数
soi30 (2).png
The Southern Oscillation Index (SOI) has remained near zero over the last two weeks. The latest approximate 30-day SOI value to 8 September is -1.0.
过去两周南方振荡指数 (SOI) 维持接近零的水平。9月8日的过去三十天 SOI 平均值为约 -1.0。
Sustained positive values of the SOI above +8 may indicate a La Nina event, while sustained negative values below -8 may indicate an El Nino event. Values of between about +8 and -8 generally indicate neutral conditions.
SOI 指数持续高于 +8 可能预示拉尼娜事件的发生,指数持续低于 -8 可能预示厄尔尼诺事件的发生,SOI 指数在 +8 和 -8 之间代表中性状态。

Trade winds
信风
sst_wind_anom_5day.large (1).gif
Trade winds are near-average across the tropical Pacific (see anomaly map for the 5 days ending 8 September), similar to two weeks ago.
目前热带太平洋信风情况接近平均值(详情见截至9月8日的5天距平图),与两周前情况相似。
During La Nina events, there is a sustained strengthening of the trade winds across much of the tropical Pacific, while during El Ni?o events there is a sustained weakening of the trade winds.
在拉尼娜事件发生时,热带太平洋的信风会持续增强;在厄尔尼诺事件事件发生时,热带太平洋的信风会持续減弱。

Cloudiness near the Date Line日界线附近云量
region.ts.dateline (2).gif
Cloudiness near the Date Line has continued to be below average over the past two weeks. It has generally been below average since April, but has been more consistently so since mid-July.
日界线附近云量在过往两周继续低于平均值。其在四月开始低于平均值,并在七月中旬开始变得更为稳定。
Cloudiness along the equator, near the Date Line, is an important indicator of ENSO conditions, as it typically increases (negative OLR anomalies) near and to the east of the Date Line during an El Nino event and decreases (positive OLR anomalies) during a La Nina event.
日界线赤道附近云量是 ENSO 其中一个重要因素,日界线附近及以东云量会在厄尔尼诺事件发生时增多,并会在拉尼娜事件发生时减少。

Climate Models气候模式
poama.nino34.small (2).png
All but one of the international climate models surveyed by the Bureau indicate that SSTs in the equatorial Pacific Ocean are likely to remain ENSO neutral during the southern hemisphere spring and into summer. The remaining model shows a small chance of NINO3.4 (the SST index for the central topical Pacific) briefly passing La Nina thresholds during spring.
气象局提供的所有国际气候预报皆预报赤道太平洋海表温度将会接近正常值,亦代表 ENSO 将在南半球春天及夏天初期维持中性,除了一个气候预报预报 NINO3.4(中热带太平洋的海表温度指数)在南半球春天有机会达到拉尼娜时间门栏。


Indian Ocean Dipole
印度洋偶极子
poama.iod.png
The Indian Ocean Dipole (IOD) index has remained within the neutral range for the past five weeks, with the latest weekly value (8 September) -0.1 °C.
印度洋偶极子 (IOD) 指数在过去五週维持中等水平,最新一周(9月8日)数值为 -0.1°C。
Climate models surveyed in the model outlooks favour neutral IOD values over the coming months, and hence it is likely that the 2013 negative IOD event has reached its conclusion.
气候模式普遍认为 IOD 指数在未来数月将维持中性,因此估计 2013年 IOD 负相位情况已经进入尾声。
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发表于 2013-9-30 19:12 | 显示全部楼层

2013.09.24

Both tropical Pacific and Indian oceans neutral
热带太平洋和印度洋情况保持中性

24-09-2013

The El Nino-Southern Oscillation (ENSO) has remained neutral since mid-2012. Most indicators of ENSO are at near-average levels, though some atmospheric indicators, such as the Southern Oscillation Index (SOI) and cloudiness near the Date Line, have fluctuated over recent months. This is fairly typical of neutral ENSO periods. International climate models surveyed by the Bureau of Meteorology suggest that the tropical Pacific will remain ENSO-neutral for the remainder of spring and the austral summer.
厄尔尼诺-南方涛动现象(ENSO)自 2012年中起维持中性。大部分 ENSO 指标皆维持接近正常水平,部分大气指标,如南方涛动指数(SOI)及换日线附近云量,在过去数个月皆有波动。这是典型中性 ENSO 的情况。气象局所参考的国际气候指标预测热带太平洋在南半球春夏季会维持中性 ENSO。
This year has seen a negative Indian Ocean Dipole (IOD) event, which contributed to above average rainfall across large parts of southern Australia during late autumn and winter. The event decayed during August. The majority of international climate models indicate the IOD will remain neutral for the remainder of 2013.本年度导致南半球秋冬季澳大利亚南部大片地区雨量高于平均值的热带印度洋偶极子(IOD) 负相已经在八月停止。主流气候数值预测 IOD 将会在 2013年余下时间维持中性。

Monthly sea surface temperatures
每月海表层温度

sst_monthly (2).gif
The sea surface temperature (SST) anomaly map for August 2013 shows cool SST anomalies across the eastern tropical Pacific and along the Peruvian coast. This pattern is generally similar to that of the previous month, although cool anomalies have become stronger along the equator and those along the South American coast have become weaker. Warm anomalies persist across the Maritime Continent, South Pacific Convergence Zone (SPCZ) and along Australia’s southern coastline, although those around the Maritime Continent have weakened. SST anomalies are near-average across the central tropical Pacific.
2013年8月海表温度距平图显示冷距平情况出现在东热带太平洋及秘鲁对出海岸。此情况与上月接近,惟赤道附近的冷距平情况相比上月更为严重,而南美海岸之冷距平却有所减弱。海陆区域、南太平洋辐合带(SPCZ)、澳大利亚南部海岸线海表温度暖距平,而海陆区域之暖距平有所减弱。中热带太平洋海表温度接近正常。
                    指数                    七月
                    八月
                    温度变化
                    NINO3                    -0.3                    -0.4                    低 0.1°C
                    NINO3.4                    -0.1                    -0.2
                    低 0.1°C
                    NINO4                    +0.2                    +0.3                    高 0.1°C
Weekly sea surface temperatures
每周海表层温度
sst_weekly (2).gif
Sea surface temperature anomalies across the tropical Pacific generally remain similar to those of a fortnight ago, with all three NINO indices close to zero. The anomaly map for the week ending 22 September 2013 shows small areas of weak cool anomalies remain in the eastern Pacific along and south of the equator. Small areas of warm SST anomalies have now appeared in the eastern Pacific. Warm anomalies also remain in the western Pacific and around the SPCZ, though areas in the west have seen these anomalies reduce over the last two weeks. Most of surface waters of the central equatorial Pacific are near average temperatures for this time of year.
目前热带太平洋的海表温度距平与两周前相比接近,三个 NINO 指标皆接近零。2013年9月16至22日的海表温度距平图显示东太平洋及赤道以南维持弱冷距平;西太平洋及南太平洋辐合带(SPCZ)维持暖距平,而西太平洋的暖距平相对两周前有所减弱。赤道中太平洋大部分地区海表温度接近平均值。
              指数              先前              当前              温度变化(两周)
              NINO3              -0.2              +0.1              高 0.3°C
              NINO3.4              +0.1              -0.2              低 0.3°C
              NINO4              +0.5              +0.1              低 0.4°C
Monthly sub-surface
每月次表层海温
sub_surf_mon (2).gif
The four-month sequence of sub-surface temperature anomalies (to 23 September) shows waters are slightly cooler than average in the east and weakly warmer than average in much of the water column west of the Date Line. Small areas of moderately cool anomalies remain in the eastern equatorial Pacific between the surface and around 150 m depth. Over the last three months, the sub-surface anomaly pattern has remained generally similar.
四个月的次表层海温距平(至9月23日)显示东面水温略低于平均值,日界线以西次表层海温则高于平均值。东赤道太平洋有小区域海面与海面下150米之间维持中等冷距平。次表层海温距平情况与三个月前的情况接近。

Weekly sub-surface
每周次表层海温
sub_surf_tao (2).gif
The sub-surface of the equatorial Pacific remains generally similar to two weeks ago, with slight cooling near the surface in the east. Sub-surface temperatures are generally near-average (see map for the 5 days ending 22 September).
赤道太平洋的次表层海温与两周前情况大致相似,惟东太平洋次表层海温相比兩週前稍有降溫。次表层海温整体情况接近平均值(详情见截至9月22日的5天距平图) 。

Southern Oscillation Index
南方振荡指数
soi30 (3).png
The Southern Oscillation Index (SOI) has risen over the last two weeks. The latest approximate 30-day SOI value to 22 September is +5.6.
南方振荡指数(SOI)相比兩週前有所上升。9月22日的过去三十天 SOI 平均值为 +5.6。
Sustained positive values of the SOI above +8 may indicate a La Nina event, while sustained negative values below -8 may indicate an El Nino event. Values of between about +8 and -8 generally indicate neutral conditions.
SOI 指数持续高于 +8 可能预示拉尼娜事件的发生,指数持续低于 -8 可能预示厄尔尼诺事件的发生,SOI 指数在 +8 和 -8 之间代表中性状态。

Trade winds
信风
sst_wind_anom_5day.large (2).gif

Trade winds have strengthened over the past two weeks and are slightly stronger than average across the western and central tropical Pacific (see anomaly map for the 5 days ending 22 September).
热带太平洋中部及西部之信风在过去两周稍比平均值强(看9月22日的五日信风距平图)。
During La Nina events, there is a sustained strengthening of the trade winds across much of the tropical Pacific, while during El Nino events there is a sustained weakening of the trade winds.
在拉尼娜事件发生时,热带太平洋的信风会持续增强;在厄尔尼诺事件事件发生时,热带太平洋的信风会持续減弱。

Cloudiness near the Date Line
日界线附近云量
region.ts.dateline (3).gif
Cloudiness near the Date Line has remained below average over the past two weeks, though anomalies are now smaller than observed in recent months.
日界线附近云量在过往两周继续低于平均值,不过与平均值之差距相比两周前有所拉近。
Cloudiness along the equator, near the Date Line, is an important indicator of ENSO conditions, as it typically increases (negative OLR anomalies) near and to the east of the Date Line during an El Nino event and decreases (positive OLR anomalies) during a La Nina event.
日界线赤道附近云量是 ENSO 其中一个重要因素,日界线附近及以东云量会在厄尔尼诺事件发生时增多,并会在拉尼娜事件发生时减少。

Climate Models
气候模式
poama.nino34.png
All seven international climate models surveyed by the Bureau indicate that SSTs in the equatorial Pacific Ocean are likely to remain ENSO neutral until at least the end of the year.
气象局参考的所有国际气候预报(七个)皆预报赤道太平洋海表温度将会接近正常值,亦代表 ENSO 情况将在2013年余下时间维持正常。

Indian Ocean Dipole
印度洋偶极子
poama.iod.png
The Indian Ocean Dipole (IOD) index remains within the neutral range, with the latest weekly value (22 September) -0.3°C.
Climate models surveyed in the model outlooks favour neutral IOD values over the coming months.
目前热带印度洋偶极子(IOD)指数属于正常,最新(9月22日)数值为 -0.3°C。气候模式预测 IOD 指数在未来数个月将维持中性数值。
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发表于 2013-10-14 18:10 | 显示全部楼层

2013.10.08

Neutral outlook for tropical Pacific and Indian Oceans
预料热带太平洋及印度洋维持中性情况
08-10-2013

The El Nino-Southern Oscillation (ENSO) remains neutral (neither El Nino nor La Nina), with virtually all indicators at near-normal levels. International climate models surveyed by the Bureau of Meteorology suggest that the tropical Pacific will remain ENSO-neutral for the remainder of spring and the austral summer.
圣婴-南方振荡现象 (ENSO) 维持中性,所有 ENSO 指标亦接近正常水平。气象局所参考的气候数值皆预报热带太平洋在南半球春夏天维持 ENSO 中性。
The Indian Ocean Dipole (IOD) also remains neutral. The negative IOD event which contributed to above average rainfall across large parts of southern Australia during late autumn and winter has ended. Climate models surveyed by the Bureau of Meteorology indicate the IOD will remain neutral at least until the onset of the Australian monsoon, around November, after which the IOD typically has low impact upon Australian climate.
热带印度洋偶极子 (IOD) 维持中性。早前的 IOD 负相事件在南半球晚秋和冬天导致澳洲南部大部分地区雨量高于正常,此情况已经结束。气象局所参考的气候数值预报显示 IOD 将会维持中性,最快至澳大利亚季风的盛行,即大约十一月,该时 IOD 对澳大利亚的气候影响较低。

Monthly sea surface temperatures
每月海表层温度

sst_monthly (3).gif
The sea surface temperature (SST) anomaly map for September 2013 shows close to average conditions across the eastern tropical Pacific and along the Peruvian coast. Some weak warming in the eastern Pacific during September removed most of the weak cool anomalies present in August. Warm anomalies persist across the Maritime Continent, the areas near the South Pacific Convergence Zone and along Australia\'s southern and eastern coastlines, with some strengthening of anomalies along the southeastern coastline. SST anomalies are near-average across the central tropical Pacific.
2013年9月的海表层温度距平图显示东热带太平洋及秘鲁海岸海表温度接近正常。东太平洋部分地区海温有所上升,取代了八月该处大部分冷距平地区。暖距平出现在海陆地区、南太平洋辐合带附近地区、澳大利亚南面及东面海岸,当中东南面海岸之暖距平有所增强。中热带太平洋之海表温度接近正常。
                 指数                 八月
                 九月
                 温度变化
                 NINO3                 -0.4                0.0                 高 0.4°C
                 NINO3.4                 -0.1                 0.0
                 高 0.1°C
                 NINO4                 +0.3                 +0.3                 没有变化
Weekly sea surface temperatures
每周海表层温度
sst_weekly (3).gif
Sea surface temperature anomalies across the tropical Pacific generally remain similar to those of a fortnight ago, with all three NINO indices close to zero. The anomaly map for the week ending 6 October 2013 shows that small areas of weak cool anomalies remain in the eastern Pacific along and south of the equator. Small areas of warm SST anomalies also remain in the eastern Pacific, though these areas have not increased in size. Warm anomalies remain in the western Pacific and around the South Pacific Convergence Zone, slightly strengthening in the western Pacific over the past two weeks. Most of surface waters of the central equatorial Pacific are near average for this time of year.
热带太平洋的海表温度距平与两周前相比大致相同,三个 NINO 指标皆接近 0。9月30日至10月6日的海温距平图显示小区域的暖距平维持在东太平洋,范围并未扩大。暖距平维持在西太平洋及南太平洋辐合带附近区域,并且西太平洋的暖距平相对于两周前稍有增强。中赤道太平洋大部分地区在本年接近平均值。
           指数                  先前                    当前           温度变化(两周)
           NINO3                   +0.1                     -0.1           低 0.2°C
           NINO3.4                    0.0                     -0.2           低 0.2°C
           NINO4                   +0.1                    +0.2           高 0.1°C
Monthly sub-surface
每月次表层海温
sub_surf_mon (3).gif
The four-month sequence of sub-surface temperature anomalies ending September, shows waters are slightly cooler than average in the east, and weakly warmer than average in much of the water column west of the Date Line. Small areas of moderately cool anomalies remain in the eastern equatorial Pacific close to the surface and have developed along the thermocline in the central Pacific. Over the last three months, the sub-surface anomaly pattern has remained fairly constant, although cool anomalies along the thermocline and in the eastern Pacific have strengthened slightly.
四个月的次表层海温距平图(至九月)显示图中东面位置次表层海温仍然冷距平,并且换日线以西次表层海温暖距平。东太平洋赤道附近,有小部分区域表层至150米海温冷距平,并且开始在中太平洋温跃层发展。目前次表层海温情况与上三月次表层海温长期平均情况相似,惟东太平洋温跃层冷距平相对此前稍有发展。

Weekly sub-surface 每周次表层海温
sub_surf_tao (3).gif
Broadly, compared to two weeks ago, the sub-surface of the equatorial Pacific shows that the area of weak cool anomalies that was to the west of the dateline has shifted to the east along the thermocline. A small area of positive anomalies to the east of this has also shifted further east. Warm anomalies have appeared in the western Pacific. Sub-surface temperatures are generally near-average (see map for the 7 days ending 1 October). Due to the US Government shutdown, Pacific Ocean subsurface maps are currently unavailable. The map shown here is from an experimental (POAMA) model analysis and hence caution should be taken when directly comparing to other analysis systems.
从图中可以看到两周前换日线以西温跃层的冷距平已经有所东移。图中东面位置小区域的暖距平相比两周前亦有所东移。西太平洋出现海温暖距平。其余区域次表层海温大致接近平均值(看至十月一天的七天次表层海温图)。由于美国政府暂时停运,有关太平洋次表层的分析图目前未能被提供。以上图片以 POAMA 数据制作,大家应小心比较。

Southern Oscillation Index南方振荡指数
soi30 (4).png
The Southern Oscillation Index (SOI) has showed little change over the last two weeks. The latest approximate 30-day SOI value to 6 October is +6.2.
过去两周南方振荡指数 (SOI) 没有大改变。10月6日的过去三十天 SOI 平均值为约 +6.2。
Sustained positive values of the SOI above +8 may indicate a La Nina event, while sustained negative values below -8 may indicate an El Nino event. Values of between about +8 and -8 generally indicate neutral conditions.
SOI 指数持续高于 +8 可能预示拉尼娜事件的发生,指数持续低于 -8 可能预示厄尔尼诺事件的发生,SOI 指数在 +8 和 -8 之间代表中性状态。

Trade winds
信风
sst_wind_anom_5day.large (3).gif
Trade winds have showed little variation over the past two weeks, remaining slightly stronger than average across the western tropical Pacific and slightly weaker than average in the eastern tropical Pacific. Due to the US Government shutdown a different trade winds map is displayed this week. The map shows trade winds across the equator varying with time.
信风情况在过去两周有一点变化,西热带太平洋维持比平均值强的信风,东热带太平洋信风比平均值稍弱。由于美国政府暂时关闭,因此本周有有别于平时的信风图被显示。上图显示不同时候赤道信风的情况。
During La Nina events, there is a sustained strengthening of the trade winds across much of the tropical Pacific, while during El Ni?o events there is a sustained weakening of the trade winds.
在拉尼娜事件发生时,热带太平洋的信风会持续增强;在厄尔尼诺事件事件发生时,热带太平洋的信风会持续減弱。

Cloudiness near the Date Line日界线附近云量
region.ts.dateline (4).gif
Cloudiness near the Date Line was briefly above average over the past two weeks, anomalies have now returned to below average though remain smaller than observed in recent months.
日界线附近云量在过往两周继续低于平均值。云量情况重新比平均值低,虽然比早前数个月所观测到的要轻微。
Cloudiness along the equator, near the Date Line, is an important indicator of ENSO conditions, as it typically increases (negative OLR anomalies) near and to the east of the Date Line during an El Nino event and decreases (positive OLR anomalies) during a La Nina event.
日界线赤道附近云量是 ENSO 其中一个重要因素,日界线附近及以东云量会在厄尔尼诺事件发生时增多,并会在拉尼娜事件发生时减少。

Climate Models气候模式
poama.nino34 (1).png
All seven international climate models surveyed by the Bureau indicate that SSTs in the equatorial Pacific Ocean are likely to remain ENSO neutral until at least the end of the year.
气象局提供的所有国际气候预报(七个)皆预报赤道太平洋海表温度将会接近正常值,亦代表 ENSO 将在2013年余下时间维持中性。

Indian Ocean Dipole
印度洋偶极子
poama.iod (2).png
The Indian Ocean Dipole (IOD) index remains within the neutral range, with the latest weekly value (6 October) ?0.2 °C.
印度洋偶极子 (IOD) 指数维持中等水平,最新一周(至10月6日)数值为 -0.2°C。
Climate models surveyed in the model outlooks favour neutral IOD values over the coming months.
气候模式普遍认为 IOD 指数在未来数月将维持中性。
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发表于 2013-10-26 23:01 | 显示全部楼层

2013.10.22

An ENSO-neutral summer most likely
厄尔尼诺-南方涛动情况最可能在南半球夏天维持中性
22-10-2013

The El Ni?o-Southern Oscillation (ENSO) has remained neutral since mid-2012, with all atmospheric and oceanic indicators of ENSO presently within neutral bounds. International climate models surveyed by the Bureau of Meteorology suggest that the neutral ENSO-pattern will persist through the coming summer.
厄尔尼诺-南方涛动现象(ENSO)自 2012年中起维持中性。所有大气和海洋 ENSO 指标皆维持正常水平。气象局所参考的国际气候指标预测南半球夏季会维持中性 ENSO之情况。
While ENSO is the dominant natural driver of Australia’s climate, a neutral period does not guarantee a benign climate. A neutral ENSO period indicates that the equatorial Pacific Ocean is not shifting the odds towards either a particularly wet or dry period, and hence other influences may come into play. Weather extremes can and do occur during neutral ENSO phases, though tend to be less widespread.
虽然预测中性 ENSO 情况会主导澳大利亚之气候,可是中性情况并不代表会引致一个良好气候。ENSO 中性情况时,赤道太平洋之湿区或乾区不会向澳大利亚本土移动,亦即代表其他气流或系统会影响本土天气。极端天气在 ENSO 中性情况下仍然有机会发生,虽然一般其影响范围较少。
The Indian Ocean Dipole (IOD) is neutral, with climate models indicating that it will remain so until the end of the austral spring. The IOD typically has little influence on Australian climate during the period from December to April.
印度洋偶极子指数(IOD)目前维持中性,气候模式预料其会维持中性直至澳大利亚春季。一般情况下,IOD 在十二月至四月会对澳洲气候造成一点影响。
Monthly sea surface temperatures
每月海表层温度

sst_monthly (4).gif
The sea surface temperature (SST) anomaly map for September 2013 shows close to average conditions across the eastern tropical Pacific and along the Peruvian coast. Some weak warming in the eastern Pacific during September removed most of the weak cool anomalies present in August. Warm anomalies persist across the Maritime Continent, the areas near the South Pacific Convergence Zone and along Australia\'s southern and eastern coastlines, with some strengthening of anomalies along the southeastern coastline. SST anomalies are near-average across the central tropical Pacific.
2013年9月海表温度距平图显示正常情况之地方为东热带太平洋及秘鲁海岸附近,其中东太平洋海温在九月的轻微上升已经抵消了八月该处的海温冷距平。目前海温暖距平的地方有海陆地区、南太平洋辐合带附近及澳大利亚东部及南部海域,其中东南海岸线之暖距平相对一个月前有所增强。中热带太平洋之海温就近正常值。

                     指数                     七月
                     八月
                     温度变化
                     NINO3                     -0.4                      0.0                     高 0.4°C
                     NINO3.4                     -0.1                      0.0
                     高 0.1°C
                     NINO4                     +0.3                     +0.3                     没有变化
Weekly sea surface temperatures
每周海表层温度
sst_weekly (4).gif
The pattern of sea surface temperature anomalies across the tropical Pacific remains similar to those of a fortnight ago, although waters have warmed slightly across the equatorial Pacific as seen in all three NINO indices. The anomaly map for the week ending 20 October shows small areas of weak cool anomalies remain in the central Pacific and south of the equator near South America. Areas of warm SST anomalies are evident in the eastern Pacific north of the equator, while the warm anomalies in the western Pacific have strengthened. Most of surface waters of the central equatorial Pacific are near average for this time of year.
目前热带太平洋的海表温度距平情况与两周前情况接近,虽然三个 NINO 显示赤道太平洋水温有轻微上升。2013年10月14至20日的海表温度距平图显示中太平洋及赤道以南(接近南美洲)维持弱冷距平;暖距平情况出现在东北太平洋,而西太平洋的暖距平相对两周前有所增强。赤道中太平洋大部分地区海表温度接近平均值。
               指数               先前               当前               温度变化(两周)
               NINO3               -0.1               +0.1               高 0.2°C
               NINO3.4               -0.2               -0.1               高 0.1°C
               NINO4               +0.2               +0.5               高 0.3°C
Monthly sub-surface
每月次表层海温
sub_surf_mon (4).gif
The four-month sequence of sub-surface temperature anomalies (to 21 October) shows waters are slightly cooler than average in the east and weakly warmer than average in much of the water column west of the Date Line. Over the last three months, the sub-surface anomaly pattern has remained generally similar.
四个月的次表层海温距平(至10月21日)显示东面水温略低于平均值,日界线以西次表层海温则高于平均值。次表层海温距平情况与三个月前的情况接近。

Weekly sub-surface
每周次表层海温 sub_surf_tao (4).gif

The sub-surface map for the 5 days ending 21 October shows temperatures are warmer than average in the western equatorial Pacific, reaching 2 °C warmer than average at around 150 m depth just west of the Date Line. Sub-surface temperatures are generally near-average for the remainder of the equatorial Pacific.
截至10月21日的5天次表层海温距平图显示西赤道太平洋海温高于平均值,换日线赤道 150m 深处海温比平均值高 2°C。赤道太平洋其余区域之次表层海温大致上接近平均值。

Southern Oscillation Index
南方振荡指数
soi30 (5).png
The Southern Oscillation Index (SOI) has dropped over the last two weeks. The latest approximate 30-day SOI value to 20 October is +0.4.
南方振荡指数(SOI)相比兩週前有所上升。10月20日的过去三十天 SOI 平均值为 +0.4。
Sustained positive values of the SOI above +8 may indicate a La Nina event, while sustained negative values below -8 may indicate an El Nino event. Values of between about +8 and -8 generally indicate neutral conditions.
SOI 指数持续高于 +8 可能预示拉尼娜事件的发生,指数持续低于 -8 可能预示厄尔尼诺事件的发生,SOI 指数在 +8 和 -8 之间代表中性状态。

Trade winds
信风
sst_wind_anom_5day.large (4).gif
Trade winds are near average across the entire tropical Pacific (see anomaly map for the 5 days ending 20 October).
信风情况在热带太平洋大部分地区接近平均值(看10月20日的五日信风距平图)。
During La Nina events, there is a sustained strengthening of the trade winds across much of the tropical Pacific, while during El Nino events there is a sustained weakening of the trade winds.
在拉尼娜事件发生时,热带太平洋的信风会持续增强;在厄尔尼诺事件事件发生时,热带太平洋的信风会持续減弱。

Cloudiness near the Date Line日界线附近云量
region.ts.dateline (5).gif
Cloudiness near the Date Line has been generally close to average over the past month, following on from a period of mostly below-average cloudiness from April to mid-September.
日界线附近云量在过往一个月接近平均值,而其在四月至九月中大部分时间低于平均。
Cloudiness along the equator, near the Date Line, is an important indicator of ENSO conditions, as it typically increases (negative OLR anomalies) near and to the east of the Date Line during an El Nino event and decreases (positive OLR anomalies) during a La Nina event.
日界线赤道附近云量是 ENSO 其中一个重要因素,日界线附近及以东云量会在厄尔尼诺事件发生时增多,并会在拉尼娜事件发生时减少。

Climate Models气候模式
poama.nino34 (2).png
All seven international climate models surveyed by the Bureau indicate that SSTs in the equatorial Pacific Ocean are likely to remain ENSO neutral until at least the southern hemisphere autumn 2014.
气象局参考的所有国际气候预报(七个)皆预报赤道太平洋海表温度将会接近正常值,代表 ENSO 情况将最少2014年南半球秋天前维持正常

Indian Ocean Dipole
印度洋偶极子
poama.iod (3).png
The Indian Ocean Dipole (IOD) index remains within the neutral range, with the latest weekly value (20 October) +0.1 °C.
Climate models surveyed in the model outlooks favour neutral IOD values over the coming months.目前热带印度洋偶极子(IOD)指数属于正常,最新(10月20日)数值为 +0.1°C。气候模式预测 IOD 指数在未来数个月将维持中性数值。
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发表于 2014-1-23 19:47 | 显示全部楼层

2014.01.14

Tropical Pacific remains ENSO-neutral
热带太平洋保持ENSO中性状态
The El Niño–Southern Oscillation (ENSO) remains in a neutral state, with all indicators well within neutral bounds. International climate models surveyed by the Bureau indicate this neutral ENSO state is likely to persist into the austral autumn. Some models suggest the central Pacific Ocean may warm during autumn and winter, while others remain near average. However, forecasts that span autumn have lower skill than forecasts at other times of year, and hence long-range model outlooks need to be used with more caution at this time of year. The Bureau will continue to monitor the ENSO state closely as forecasts become more reliable.
厄尔尼诺-南方涛动(ENSO)状态维持中性——所有指数都在中性范围内。气象局提供的国际气候模式表明ENSO中性状态将可能维持至南半球的秋季。一些模式暗示中太平洋水温可能在秋冬季节回暖,而其他模式认为接近平均。然而,由于数据模式在进入秋季时候的预报能力比其他时候低,因此对这段时间的长期预报将更加小心和谨慎。随着预报变得更加可靠(这段时间过去后),气象局将继续紧密监测ENSO状态。
ENSO events (El Niño and La Niña) usually follow a typical life cycle. Events usually begin to develop during the austral autumn and winter months, mature during spring and summer, and rapidly weaken by the end of the following autumn.
ENSO事件(厄尔尼诺和拉尼娜)通常有一个典型的活动周期:一般在南半球的秋冬季开始发展,春夏季发展成熟,并在接下来的秋季末期快速减弱。
The Indian Ocean Dipole is currently neutral. It typically does not influence the Australian climate during the months from December to April.
目前印度洋偶极子为中性状态,它在12月至次年4月并不显著影响澳大利亚气候。
Monthly sea surface temperatures:

每月海表层温度:

The sea surface temperature (SST) anomaly map for December 2013 shows SSTs are near average along most of the equatorial Pacific, similar to last month. Weak cool anomalies remain in the far eastern Pacific south of the equator between around 10°S and 30°S, while weak warm anomalies persist west of the Date Line between the Maritime Continent and the South Pacific Convergence Zone (SPCZ).
2013年12月的海表层距平图显示大部分赤道太平洋的海表层温度距平接近平均,这种情况和11月相似。微弱的冷距平依旧存在于遥远的中太平洋赤道以南10°S 至30°S区域。而弱暖距平则出现在日界线以西附近的海陆地区至南太平洋辐合带地区。
指数        11月        12月        温度变化
NINO3         0.0        +0.1        高0.1 °C
NINO3.4        +0.2        +0.1        低0.1 °C
NINO4        +0.5        +0.3        低0.2 °C
1.gif
Weekly sea surface temperatures:

每周海表层温度:

SST anomalies across the tropical Pacific remain generally similar to two weeks ago. The anomaly map for the week ending 12 January shows near-average temperatures across most of the tropical Pacific, with weak warm anomalies surrounding the Maritime Continent. Warm anomalies around the SPCZ have strengthened slightly over the past two weeks, as have cool anomalies in the eastern Pacific between around 10°S and 30°S. Warm anomalies remain around the western half of Australia.
热带太平洋的海表层温度和两周前相近。截至1月12日这一周的距平图显示大部热带太平洋温度接近平均,除了海陆区域有微弱的暖距平。南太平洋辐合带的暖距平比过去两周有所加强,而冷距平则在东太平洋10°S 到30°S附近水域。暖距平继续保持在澳大利亚西半部。
指数        先前        当前        两周温度变化
NINO3         0.0            -0.2        低0.2 °C
NINO3.4         0.0        -0.2        低0.2 °C
NINO4        +0.1         0.0        低0.1 °C
2.gif
Monthly sub-surface:
每月次表层温度:

The four-month sequence of sub-surface temperature anomalies (to December 2013) shows waters are cooler than average in the sub-surface of the equatorial Pacific east of the Date Line, a significant cooling compared to November. However, cool anomalies have been present in at least part of the eastern equatorial Pacific during the past four months. Weak warm anomalies are present throughout most of the water column west of the Date Line.
4个月的次表层海温距平图(截至2013年12月)显示:日界线以东的次表层海温低于平均,并且与11月相比有明显的冷却趋势。但至少在过去4个月,东太平洋赤道的冷距平状态维持。日界线以西大部分水域则维持弱暖距平。
3.gif
Weekly sub-surface:
每周次表层海温:

The sub-surface map for the 5 days ending 12 January shows temperatures in the equatorial Pacific are generally close to average.
截至1月12日的5天次表层距平图显示赤道太平洋的温度大体接近平均。
4.gif
Southern Oscillation Index:

南方波动指数:

The Southern Oscillation Index (SOI) has risen very slightly over the past two weeks. The latest approximate 30-day SOI value to 12 January is +2.2.
过去两周南方波动指数(SOI)上升不明显,截至1月12日最新的SOI值为+2.2
Sustained positive values of the SOI above +8 may indicate a La Niña event, while sustained negative values below −8 may indicate an El Niño event. Values of between about +8 and −8 generally indicate neutral conditions.
持续的大于8.0的正SOI指数可能预示拉尼娜事件的发生,同样,持续低于-8将预示厄尔尼诺事件的发生,那么在8和-8之间就是中性状态。
5.png
Trade winds:

信风:

Trade winds are close to average strength across the tropical Pacific (see anomaly map for the 5 days ending 12 January).
热带太平洋信风强度接近平均(详见截至1月12日的5天距平图)。
During La Niña events, there is a sustained strengthening of the trade winds across much of the tropical Pacific, while during El Niño events there is a sustained weakening of the trade winds.
在拉尼娜盛行时,大部分热带太平洋的信风持续偏强,而厄尔尼诺时信风偏弱。
6.gif
Cloudiness near the Date Line:

日界线附近云量:

Cloudiness near the Date Line has been close to average over the past two weeks. Cloudiness near the Date Line has generally been below average since April 2013, with a near-average period between mid-September 2013 and the end of October 2013.
过去两者日界线附近云量接近平均,从2013年4月开始日界线附近云量低于平均,而在9月中旬至10月末又回到平均值。
Cloudiness along the equator, near the Date Line, is an important indicator of ENSO conditions, as it typically increases (negative OLR anomalies) near and to the east of the Date Line during an El Niño event and decreases (positive OLR anomalies) during a La Niña event.
日界线赤道附近的云量是ENSO状态的重要指标,每当厄尔尼诺发生时,日界线附近及以东海域的云量会特别的增加(OLR为负距平),而在拉尼娜发生时会减少(OLR为正距平)。
7.gif
Climate Models:

气候模式:

All seven international climate models surveyed by the Bureau indicate that SSTs in the equatorial Pacific Ocean are likely to remain ENSO neutral at least through the first quarter of 2014
所有7个气象局提供的气候模式表明ENSO中性将至少保持至2014年第一季度。
8.png
Indian Ocean Dipole:

印度洋偶极子:

The Indian Ocean Dipole (IOD) remains neutral, with the latest weekly index value (12 January) -0.3 °C.
印度洋偶极子(IOD)保持中性,最新值为-0.3 °C
Climate models surveyed in the model outlooks favour neutral IOD values over the coming months. The IOD typically has little influence on Australian climate during summer and early autumn. During this time of year, establishment of negative or positive IOD patterns is largely inhibited by the development and position of the monsoon trough in the southern hemisphere.
气候模式预报支持IOD在本月保持中性,IOD通常在夏季和早秋对澳气候影响不明显,在这段时间IOD的正负性很大程度上受限于南半球季风槽的位置和发展程度。
9.png
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资深会员-热带辐合带

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发表于 2014-1-28 20:49 | 显示全部楼层

2014.01.28

ENSO-neutral conditions to continue into autumn
ENSO中性状态继续保持至秋季

The El Niño–Southern Oscillation (ENSO) remains in a neutral state (neither El Niño nor La Niña). Climate models suggest an ENSO-neutral state to persist until at least the end of the austral autumn, with some warming of the tropical Pacific likely.
厄尔尼诺-南方涛动(ENSO)状态维持中性(非厄尔尼诺或拉尼娜状态)。气候模式暗示热带太平洋海温可能有少许回暖,ENSO中性状态将至少维持至秋末。
While most ENSO indicators are neutral, strong westerly winds currently over the far western tropical Pacific may lead to some warming of the tropical Pacific Ocean in the coming weeks.
虽然目前大部分ENSO指数为中性,但受强西风带影响,热带太平洋西部的海温将可能在接下来几周时间有少许回暖。
Most climate models surveyed by the Bureau suggest the tropical Pacific Ocean will warm through the southern autumn and winter. Some, but not all, models predict this warming may approach El Niño thresholds by early winter. Model outlooks that span autumn have lower skill than forecasts made at other times of the year, hence long-range model outlooks should be used cautiously at this time.
大部分气象局提供的气候模式表明热带太平洋将在南半球的秋冬季回暖,一些模式则预测可能在早冬达到厄尔尼诺临界状态。然而,由于数据模式在进入秋季时候的预报能力比其他时候低,因此对这段时间的长期预报将更加小心和谨慎
The Indian Ocean Dipole is typically too weak to have a significant influence on the Australian climate from December to April.
由于印度洋偶极子太弱,从而它在12月至次年4月并不明显影响澳大利亚气候。
Monthly sea surface temperatures:

每月海表层温度:

The sea surface temperature (SST) anomaly map for December 2013 shows SSTs are near average along most of the equatorial Pacific, similar to last month. Weak cool anomalies remain in the far eastern Pacificsouth of the equator between around 10°S and 30°S, while weak warm anomalies persist west of the Date Line between the Maritime Continent and the South Pacific Convergence Zone (SPCZ).
2013年12月的海表层温度距平图显示大部分赤道太平洋海温接近平均,并与11月情况相似。微弱的冷距平依旧存在于遥远的东太平洋赤道以南10°S 至30°S区域。而弱暖距平则出现在日界线以西附近的海陆地区至南太平洋辐合带(SPCZ)地区。
指数        11月        12月        温度变化
NINO3         0.0        +0.1        高0.1 °C
NINO3.4        +0.2        +0.1        低0.1 °C
NINO4        +0.5        +0.3        低0.2 °C
1.gif
Weekly sea surface temperatures:

每周海表层温度:

SST anomalies across the tropical Pacific remained similar to two weeks ago. The anomaly map for the week ending 26 January shows near-average temperatures across most of the tropical Pacific Ocean, with weak warm anomalies north and east of the Maritime Continent. Warm anomalies also persist around the SPCZ, as do cool anomalies in the eastern Pacific between around 10°S and 30°S. Warm anomalies have declined around the western half of Australia but have re-emerged south of Australia.
热带太平洋的海表层温度和两周前相近。截至1月26日这一周的距平图显示大部热带太平洋温度接近平均,除了海陆区域东北和北部有微弱的暖距平。暖距平也持续在南太平洋辐合带地区,而冷距平则在东太平洋10°S 到30°S附近水域。澳大利亚西半部暖距平有所减弱,而南部又重新出现暖距平。
指数        先前        当前        两周温度变化
NINO3        -0.2        -0.2        无变化
NINO3.4        -0.2        -0.3        低0.1 °C
NINO4         0.0         0.0        无变化
2.gif

Monthly sub-surface:

每月次表层海温:

The four-month sequence of sub-surface temperature anomalies (to 27 January) shows waters are cooler than average in the sub-surface of the equatorial Pacific east of the Date Line; a pattern which has strengthened over the past two months. Weak warm anomalies are present throughout most of the water column west of the Date Line and have increased in magnitude recently.
4个月的次表层海温距平图(截至1月27日)显示:日界线以东的次表层海温低于平均,并且与两个月前相比有明显的冷却趋势。日界线以西大部分水域目前维持弱暖距平并有加强的趋势。
3.gif
Weekly sub-surface:

每周次表层海温:

The sub-surface map for the 5 days ending 26 January shows temperatures in the sub-surface of the western equatorial Pacific are slightly warmer than average between around 100 and 200 m depth, while a small area of weak cool anomalies exist in around 110°W and 80 m depth in the eastern equatorial Pacific. When compared with two weeks ago, the sub-surface of the ocean has warmed in the west and cooled in the east.
截至1月26日的5天次表层海温距平图显示西太平洋赤道100m至200m深水域温度比平均略偏高,而东太平洋赤道110°W 80m深水域有小部分冷距平。和两周前相比,太平洋西部次表层海温有所升高而东部有所冷却。
4.gif
Southern Oscillation Index:

南方波动指数:

The Southern Oscillation Index (SOI) has risen over the past two weeks, though this is thought to be largely due to short term local weather variations rather than larger scale climate shifts. The latest approximate 30-day SOI value to 26 January is +10.0.
过去两周南方波动指数(SOI)有所升高,这主要受当地短期天气波动影响,和大尺度气候因素无关。
Sustained positive values of the SOI above +8 may indicate a La Niña event, while sustained negative values below −8 may indicate an El Niño event. Values of between about +8 and −8 generally indicate neutral conditions.
持续的大于8.0的正SOI指数可能预示拉尼娜事件的发生,同样,持续低于-8将预示厄尔尼诺事件的发生,那么在8和-8之间就是中性状态。
5.png
Trade winds:

信风:

Trade winds have weakened recently across the far western tropical Pacific, with a strong burst of westerly wind now evident. Trade winds are near-average elsewhere along the equator (see anomaly map for the 5 days ending 26 January).
受强西风影响,目前热带太平洋西部信风有所减弱,其他赤道地区信风接近平均(详见截至1月26日的5天距平图)。
During La Niña events, there is a sustained strengthening of the trade winds across much of the tropical Pacific, while during El Niño events there is a sustained weakening of the trade winds.
在拉尼娜盛行时,大部分热带太平洋的信风持续偏强,而厄尔尼诺时信风偏弱。
6.gif
Cloudiness near the Date Line:

日界线附近云量:

Cloudiness near the Date Line has been close to average over the past two weeks. Cloudiness has been near average since mid-December 2013.
过去两周日界线附近云量接近平均,自从2013年12月中旬以来日界线附近云量都接近平均。
Cloudiness along the equator, near the Date Line, is an important indicator of ENSO conditions, as it typically increases (negative OLR anomalies) near and to the east of the Date Line during an El Niño event and decreases (positive OLR anomalies) during a La Niña event.
日界线赤道附近的云量是ENSO状态的重要指标,每当厄尔尼诺发生时,日界线附近及以东海域的云量会特别的增加(OLR为负距平),而在拉尼娜发生时会减少(OLR为正距平)。
7.gif
Climate Models:

气候模式:

All seven international climate models surveyed by the Bureau indicate that SSTs in the equatorial Pacific Ocean are likely to slowly warm, but remain ENSO-neutral until at least the end of autumn. Most models suggest the central Pacific will warm through autumn and winter. Some, but not all, models predict this warming may approach El Niño thresholds by early winter. The predictability of El Niño or La Niña conditions for the period extending through and beyond autumn is less strong than for forecasts at other times of the year (known as “the autumn predictability barrier”), hence long-range model outlooks should be used cautiously at this time.
所有7个气象局提供的气候模式表明太平洋赤道海温将缓慢回升,但至少保持ENSO中性状态至秋末。大部分模式暗示中太平洋海温在秋冬季回暖,但少数模式预测在早冬达到厄尔尼诺临界状态。由于模式在进入秋季时候预报厄尔尼诺或拉尼娜的能力比其他时候低,因此对这段时间的长期预报将更加小心和谨慎
8.png
Indian Ocean Dipole:

印度洋偶极子:

The Indian Ocean Dipole (IOD) remains neutral, with the latest weekly index value (26 January) +0.1 °C.
印度洋偶极子(IOD)保持中性,最近值(1月26日)为+0.1℃。
Climate models surveyed in the model outlooks favour neutral IOD values over the coming months. The IOD is typically not an active influence on Australian climate during summer and early autumn. During this time of year, establishment of negative or positive IOD patterns is largely inhibited by the development and position of the monsoon trough in the southern hemisphere.
气候模式预报支持在接下来一个月IOD维持中性。IOD通常在夏季和早秋对澳气候影响不明显,在这段时间IOD的正负性很大程度上受限于南半球季风槽的位置和发展程度。
9.png
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超强台风

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发表于 2014-2-16 09:06 | 显示全部楼层
ENSO expected to remain neutral at least through autumn
ENSO
预计维持中性至少保持到秋季

Issued on Tuesday 11 February 2014
2014211星期二发布
The El Niño–Southern Oscillation (ENSO) state is neutral, with climate models suggesting neutral conditions will persist at least until the end of the austral autumn. However, some warming of the Pacific is likely in the coming months.
厄尔尼诺南方涛动(ENSO)状态呈中性,气候模型表明,中性条件将至少持续到南半球的秋天结束。然而,在未来几个月,太平洋可能有少许回暖。

Most international climate models surveyed by the Bureau suggest the tropical Pacific Ocean will warm through the austral autumn and winter. Some, but not all, models indicate central Pacific Ocean temperatures may approach El Niño levels by early winter. Model outlooks that span autumn tend to have lower skill than outlooks made at other times of the year, hence long-range outlooks should be used cautiously at this point. Neither neutral nor El Niño states can be discounted for the second half of 2014.
大多数的国际气候模型表明,热带太平洋地区将在温暖中度过南半球的秋天和冬天。一些,但不是全部的模型显示,太平洋中部的温度在初冬可能接近厄尔尼诺水平。模型预报跨过秋天一段时间,这段期间的预报技能往往比该年其他时期的要低,因此在这一点上,长期的预报应谨慎使用。无论2014下半年是中性或非厄尔尼诺状态,都不能过于信赖。

In the last fortnight, a westerly wind event over the far western tropical Pacific led to some warming beneath the surface of the tropical Pacific Ocean, though surface temperatures remain close to average. The current high values of the SOI are expected to reduce as recent volatile weather near Darwin and Tahiti eases.
在过去两周,西风活动在遥远的热带西太平洋上,带动热带太平洋表层下的海水稍许回暖,不过表面温度仍保持接近平均。目前,预计SOI值趋于高位,使达尔文和塔希提附近的不稳定天气减少。

The Indian Ocean Dipole is typically too weak to have a significant influence on the Australian climate from December to April.
印度洋偶极子非常弱,从十二月到四月,已经显著影响到澳大利亚气候。


Monthly sea surface temperatures:
每月的海表温度

The sea surface temperature (SST) anomaly map for January shows SSTs are near average along most of the equatorial Pacific. Weak cool anomalies remain in the far eastern Pacific south of the equator between around 10°S and 30°S, while weak warm anomalies persist west of the Date Line between the Maritime Continent and the South Pacific Convergence Zone (SPCZ).
一月的海表温度(SST)距平图显示沿赤道太平洋大部分的海表温度接近平均。弱冷距平在赤道以南约10°S30°S之间的远东太平洋,而弱的暖距平在日期变更线以西的大陆海岸和南太平洋辐合带之间(SPCZ)持续存在。

基线期1961–1990.  
   指数                
                             
   12           1           温度变化
                    
   NINO3   +0.1           0.2       0.3 °C
    NINO3.4               
    +0.1      0.3      0.4 °C
   NINO4                       
                     0.0            0.3 °C
    +0.3           
  
sst_monthly.gif



Weekly sea surface temperatures:
每周海表温度

SST anomalies across the tropical Pacific remained largely unchanged over the past fortnight. The anomaly map for the week ending 9 February shows weak cool temperature anomalies along the equator east of 150°W, with weak warm anomalies west of the Date Line and north of the Maritime Continent. Warm anomalies also continue around the SPCZ, as do weak cool anomalies in the eastern Pacific between around 10°S and 30°S.
过去的两个星期,热带太平洋的海温距平基本上保持不变。截至29的周距平图显示,弱的冷距平沿150°W的赤道以东,日变线以西与大陆海岸北部存在弱的暖距平。南太平洋幅合带(SPCZ)的暖距平还继续存在,在10°S30°S之间的东太平洋存在弱冷距平。

During January, much of southern Australia experienced extreme heat, which contributed to warming of much of the surface waters to the south of Australia.
一月期间,澳大利亚南部大部分经历了极端的热,这有助于澳大利亚南部的大部分水域表面变暖。

基线期1961–1990.  
    指数               
             稍前           最近         
           温度变化(2 )
                    
                                       
     NINO3   0.2       0.5     0.3 °C
                    
          NINO3.4          0.3                   
            0.4    0.1 °C
                    
                                       
   NINO4   0      +0.3      0.3 °C

sst_weekly.gif


Monthly sub-surface:
每月次表层:
         
The four-month sequence of sub-surface temperature anomalies (to January) shows waters are cooler than average in the sub-surface of the equatorial Pacific east of the Date Line; a pattern which has strengthened over the past two months. Water in an area of the eastern equatorial Pacific Ocean sub-surface between 140°W and 120°W at around 120 m depth is more than 4 °C cooler than average. Warm anomalies are present throughout most of the water column west of the Date Line and have increased in magnitude recently.
四个月序列(截止一月)的次表层温度距平显示:日变线以东赤道太平洋的次表层温度低于平均;在过去的两个月,其模式有继续变冷的趋势。在赤道东太平洋140°W120 W°之间的次表层水域,在约120的深度,低于平均温度4°C。目前日变线以西的大部分水域,其暖距平幅度有增强的趋势。
        
sub_surf_mon.gif   

Weekly sub-surface:
每周次表层:

        
The sub-surface map for the 5 days ending 9 February shows temperatures in the sub-surface of the western equatorial Pacific are more than 3 °C warmer than average between around 100 and 250 m depth, while a small area of weak cool anomalies exist around 110°W and 80 m depth in the eastern equatorial Pacific. Warming of the western equatorial Pacific sub-surface has continued over the past month, as expected following strong westerly wind anomalies over the western tropical Pacific in recent weeks.
截至295天的次表层图显示:在赤道西太平洋次表层100250深度的温度高于平均3 C°,而小面积的弱冷距平存在110°W周围和赤道东太平洋80的深度。由于近几周热带西太平洋西风比预期的强劲,过去的近一个月,赤道太平洋西部的次表层持续变暖。

sub_surf_tao.gif         
Southern Oscillation Index:
南方涛动指数:

The Southern Oscillation Index (SOI) has dropped slightly after continuing to rise over the past two weeks, though this is thought to be largely due to short term local weather variations rather than larger scale climate shifts. It is expected to decrease over the next fortnight, as large daily values drop out of the 30-day average. The latest approximate 30-day SOI value to 9 February is +13.0.
南方涛动指数(SOI)在过去两周内持续上升后已略有下降,不过这主要是由于当地的局部短期天气变化因素而不是大尺度气候变化因素。预计在接下来的两周,南方涛动指数(SOI)下降,因为其每日值大大地远离30天的平均值。最新接近30天的SOI值是29 日的+ 13

Sustained positive values of the SOI above +8 may indicate a La Niña event, while sustained negative values below −8 may indicate an El Niño event. Values of between about +8 and −8 generally indicate neutral conditions.
持续的大于8.0的正SOI指数可能预示拉尼娜事件的发生,同样,持续低于-8将预示厄尔尼诺事件的发生,那么在8-8之间就是中性状态。

soi30.png


Trade winds

信风:

Trade winds have returned to near-average strength across the far western tropical Pacific and are now near-average along the entire equator (see anomaly map for the 5 days ending 9 February).
在遥远的热带西太平洋信风强度已经恢复到接近平均,沿整个赤道目前的信风强度接近平均(详见截止295天距平图)。

During La Niña events, there is a sustained strengthening of the trade winds across much of the tropical Pacific, while during El Niño events there is a sustained weakening of the trade winds.
在拉尼娜事件期间,热带太平洋的信风持续偏强,而厄尔尼诺事件期间,信风持续的偏弱。

sst_wind_anom_5day_large.gif
Cloudiness near the Date Line:
日变线附近的云量:

Cloudiness near the Date Line has generally been slightly below average since early January and remained so over the past two weeks.
1月初以来,日变线附近的云量一直略低于平均,并且最近两周一直维持这个状态。

Cloudiness along the equator, near the Date Line, is an important indicator of ENSO conditions, as it typically increases (negative OLR anomalies) near and to the east of the Date Line during an El Niño event and decreases (positive OLR anomalies) during a La Niña event.
日变线附近沿赤道的云量,是ENSO条件的一个重要指标,因为厄尔尼诺时,日变线以东附近的云量通常会增加(负OLR距平),拉尼娜事件时日变线以东附近的云量通常会降低(正OLR距平)。
region_ts_dateline.gif
Climate Models:
气候模型:
Six of the seven international climate models surveyed by the Bureau indicate that SSTs in the equatorial Pacific Ocean are likely to slowly warm, although remaining ENSO-neutral until at least the end of autumn. Some models suggest this warming may approach El Niño thresholds during winter.
7
个气象局中的6个提供的气候模式表明太平洋赤道海温将缓慢回升,但至少保持ENSO中性状态至秋末。少数模式预测变暖可能在冬季达到厄尔尼诺临界状态。

The predictability of El Niño or La Niña conditions for the period extending through and beyond autumn is less strong than for forecasts at other times of the year (known as “the autumn predictability barrier”), hence long-range model outlooks should be used cautiously at this time.
由于模式在进入秋季时候预报厄尔尼诺或拉尼娜的能力比其他时候低,因此对这段时间的长期预报将更加小心和谨慎。

poama_nino34_small.png
Indian Ocean Dipole:
印度洋偶极子

The Indian Ocean Dipole (IOD) remains neutral, with the latest weekly index value (9 February) 0.1 °C.
印度洋偶极子保持中性, 最新的每周指数值(29)为
0.1 °C.
Climate models surveyed in the model outlooks favour neutral IOD values over the coming months. The IOD is typically not an active influence on Australian climate during summer and early autumn. During this time of year, establishment of negative or positive IOD patterns is largely inhibited by the development and position of the monsoon trough in the southern hemisphere.
气候模式预报支持在未来几个月的IOD维持中性。IOD通常在夏季和早秋对澳气候影响不明显,在这段时间IOD的正负性很大程度上受限于南半球季风槽的位置和发展程度。

poama_iod_small.png                                     
帖子中涉及地图来源广泛,图中所涉及的行政区域以中国官方认定的为准。
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