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[定期翻译] ENSO监测翻译

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超强台风

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发表于 2014-2-26 07:17 | 显示全部楼层
Pacific Ocean expected to warm
太平洋有望变暖
Issued on Tuesday 25 February 2014
2014年2月25日 星期二

The El Ni?o–Southern Oscillation (ENSO) remains neutral – neither El Ni?o nor La Ni?a. However, warming of the tropical Pacific Ocean is likely in the coming months, with international climate models surveyed by the Bureau showing Pacific Ocean temperatures approaching or exceeding El Ni?o thresholds in the austral winter. Model outlooks that span autumn tend to have lower skill than outlooks made at other times of the year, and hence should be used cautiously in isolation.
厄尔尼诺-南方涛动(ENSO)保持中性——既不是厄尔尼诺也不是拉尼娜现象。然而,在未来几个月内,热带太平洋海洋的变暖是可能的,国际气候模型调查局的气候模型显示太平洋温度在澳大利亚冬天接近或超过厄尔尼诺阈值。模型对跨过秋天的展望,其技能往往低于其他时候,因此应该谨慎使用。


Recent observations add weight to the model outlooks. The tropical Pacific Ocean subsurface has warmed substantially in recent weeks, which is likely to result in a warming of the ocean surface in the coming months. A strong burst of westerly wind occurring now over the far western tropical Pacific, may cause further warming of the subsurface in the coming weeks.
最近的观察增添了模型展望的砝码。最近几周热带太平洋次表层大幅变暖,这可能会导致未来几个月里海洋表面的变暖。热带太平洋西部现在盛行强劲的西风,可能导致未来几周次表层的进一步变暖。


The Indian Ocean Dipole (IOD) typically has little influence on the Australian climate from December to April. Current model outlooks suggest neutral IOD conditions for late autumn into early winter. The risk of a positive IOD event occurring is elevated during El Ni?o events.
印度洋偶极子(IOD)通常对12月到4月的澳大利亚气候几乎没有影响。当前模型展望暗示深秋初冬IOD为中性条件。在厄尔尼诺活动期间,IOD正相活动发生的风险升高。


Monthly sea surface temperatures:
每月的海表温度:

The sea surface temperature (SST) anomaly map for January shows SSTs are near average along most of the equatorial Pacific. Weak cool anomalies remain in the far eastern Pacific south of the equator between around 10°S and 30
S, while weak warm anomalies persist across the South Pacific Convergence Zone (SPCZ) in the southwest of the Pacific Ocean. Waters surrounding Australia were generally close to average temperature in the north and east and warmer than average in the south and west during January.
1月海表温度(SST)距平图显示沿赤道太平洋大部分的 SSTs 接近平均。赤道以南约在10°s和30°s之间的远东太平洋仍是弱负距平,而西南太平洋的南太平洋辐合区(SPCZ)存留弱的正距平。澳大利亚周围水域,一月期间北部和东部接近平均温度,南部和西部比平均温暖。

基期1961–1990.
指数           12月          1月          温度变化
NINO3        +0.1           0.2          低0.3 °C
NINO3.4     +0.1           0.3          低0.4 °C
NINO4        +0.3           0.0          低0.3 °C         
sst_monthly.gif

Weekly sea surface temperatures:
每周的海表温度:
SST anomalies in the eastern tropical Pacific have cooled compared to two weeks ago. The anomaly map for the week ending 23 February shows cooler than average water along the equator east of 150°W while weak warm anomalies remain over much of the tropical Pacific west of the Date Line and north of the Maritime Continent. The warm anomalies around the SPCZ have strengthened slightly over the past fortnight. Around southern and eastern Australia surface waters remain warmer than average, as has been the case for several months.
热带东太平洋海温距平比两周前冷却。截止2月23日的该周距平图显示:沿赤道150°W以东的水域温度比平均低,而日变线以西的热带太平洋大部和沿海的大陆北部仍是弱正距平。过去两周SPCZ(南太辐合区)周围的正距平略有加强。澳大利亚南部和东部的水域表面仍然暖于比平均,好几个月来一直如此。

基期 1961–1990.
指数          先前            当前                温度变化(2周)
NINO3        0.5              0.6                   0.1 °C cooler
NINO3.4     0.4              0.4                   no change
NINO4      +0.3             +0.4                  0.1 °C warmer
   sst_weekly.gif       

Monthly sub-surface:
    每月的次表层:   
The four-month sequence of sub-surface temperature anomalies (to 24 February) shows a recent warming of the sub-surface of the ocean in the western and central Pacific with cooling in the eastern sub-surface. This pattern of cool anomalies in the east and warm anomalies in the west has been generally similar for many months, but has strengthened significantly over the past three months. Water in an area of the eastern equatorial Pacific Ocean sub-surface between 120°W and 100°W at around 100 m depth is more than 4 °C cooler than average; warm anomalies in the western Pacific are weaker, reaching 3 °C at around 150 m depth around the Date Line.         
四个月序列(截止2月24日)的次表层温度距平显示了最近的太平洋西部和中部地区海洋的次表层变暖,及东部海域的次表层变冷。这种东部负距平和西部正距平模式几个月来一直普遍相似,但过去的三个月已明显加强了。在赤道东太平洋120°W 和 100°W 之间水域约100米深处,温度低于平均水平4°C;西太平洋正距平较弱,在日变线附近约150米深处达到3°C。
sub_surf_mon.gif
Weekly sub-surface:
     每周的次表层:   
The sub-surface map for the 5 days ending 24 February shows a large area of warmer than average water in the sub-surface of the equatorial Pacific, reaching more than 4 °C above than average at around 150 m depth in the central Pacific. The animation of sub-surface temperatures over recent weeks shows the development and progression of this pool of warmer-than-average water across the Pacific. This warming of the sub-surface has occurred as a result of strong westerly wind anomalies over the western tropical Pacific in recent weeks.         
截止2月24日5天的次表层图显示了赤道太平洋大面积水域的次表层暖于平均,中太平洋约150米深处温度超过平均4°C以上。最近几周的次表层温度动画显示暖池的发展并向前跨越太平洋。这种次表层变暖的发生是由于最近几周在热带太平洋西部的强西风距平。
sub_surf_tao.gif
Southern Oscillation Index:
南方涛动指数:
The Southern Oscillation Index (SOI) has continued to drop over the past two weeks as was expected. The latest approximate 30-day SOI value to 23 February is +2.6, well within the neutral range.
过去两周,南方涛动指数(SOI)继续如预期一样的下降。截止2月23日的最新近30天的SOI值是+ 2.6,在中性范围内。
Sustained positive values of the SOI above +8 may indicate a La Ni?a event, while sustained negative values below ?8 may indicate an El Ni?o event. Values of between about +8 and ?8 generally indicate neutral conditions.
SOI 值持续+ 8以上可能表明拉尼娜活动,而持续-8以下可能表明厄尔尼诺活动。+ 8和-8之间的值通常表示中性的条件。
soi30.png
Trade winds:
信风:
Strong westerly wind anomalies are present in the tropical Pacific west of the Date Line while trade winds are near-average along in the eastern half of the tropical Pacific (see anomaly map for the 5 days ending 23 February). This is the second strong westerly wind burst this year, with the first occurring between 19 and 30 January.
During La Ni?a events, there is a sustained strengthening of the trade winds across much of the tropical Pacific, while during El Ni?o events there is a sustained weakening of the trade winds.
强劲的西风距平出现在日变线以西的热带太平洋,而热带太平洋东部的信风接近平均(见截至2月23日的5天距平图)。这是今年第二次的强劲西风爆发,第一次发生在1月19日和30日之间。拉尼娜现象活动期间,热带太平洋大部分地区的信风持续加强,而在厄尔尼诺活动期间信风持续减弱。
sst_wind_anom_5day.large.gif
Cloudiness near the Date Line:
日变线附近的云量:
Cloudiness near the Date Line has generally been slightly below average since early January and remained so over the past two weeks.
1月初以来,日变线附近的云量普遍低于平均,过去两周仍然如此。
Cloudiness along the equator, near the Date Line, is an important indicator of ENSO conditions, as it typically increases (negative Outgoing Long-wave Radiation (OLR) anomalies) near and to the east of the Date Line during an El Ni?o event and decreases (positive OLR anomalies) during a La Ni?a event.
日变线附近沿赤道的云量,是ENSO条件的一个重要指标,因为厄尔尼诺活动期间,日变线附近及以东的云量通常会增加(负OLR距平),而拉尼娜活动期间减少(OLR正距平)。
region.ts.dateline.gif
Climate Models:
气候模型:
The majority of international climate models surveyed by the Bureau indicate that SSTs in the equatorial Pacific Ocean are likely to slowly warm, although remaining in the ENSO-neutral range until at least the end of autumn. Some models suggest this warming may approach or exceed El Ni?o thresholds during winter.
大部分的国际气候模型表明,太平洋赤道太平洋SSTs可能会慢慢的回暖,虽然ENSO中性条件残留至少要到秋天结束。一些模型显示这种变暖可能在冬季接近或超过厄尔尼诺阈值。
The predictability of El Ni?o or La Ni?a conditions for the period extending through and beyond autumn is lower than for forecasts made at other times of the year (known as “the autumn predictability barrier”). Long-range model outlooks should be used cautiously at this time.
预测厄尔尼诺或拉尼娜现象条件的模型对跨过秋天的展望,其技能往往低于其他时候(称为“秋季可预测性障碍”)。因此应该谨慎使用。
poama.nino34.small.png
Indian Ocean Dipole:
印度洋偶极子:
The Indian Ocean Dipole (IOD) remains neutral, with the latest weekly index value (23 February) ?0.1 °C.
印度洋偶极子(IOD)仍然中性,最新的周(2月23日)指数值为 0.1°C。

The IOD is typically not an active influence on Australian climate during summer and early autumn. During this time of year, establishment of negative or positive IOD patterns is largely inhibited by the development and position of the monsoon trough in the southern hemisphere.
IOD通常不积极影响夏季和初秋的澳大利亚气候。每年的这个时候,正或负IOD模式的建立很大程度上抑制了南半球季风槽的位置和发展
poama.iod.small.png
帖子中涉及地图来源广泛,图中所涉及的行政区域以中国官方认定的为准。
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强热带风暴

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发表于 2014-3-11 19:49 | 显示全部楼层

2014.03.11

Warming tropical Pacific increases chance of El Ni?o from winter
热带太平洋的回暖增加了冬季发生厄尔尼诺的概率

The El NioSouthern Oscillation (ENSO) remains neutral neither El Nio nor La Nia. However, international climate models surveyed by the Bureau indicate that warming of the tropical Pacific is likely in the coming months, with most models showing temperatures approaching or exceeding El Ni?o thresholds during the austral winter.
厄尔尼诺-南方扰动(ENSO)维持中性—非厄尔尼诺或拉尼娜状态。然而,气象局提供的国际气候模式表明热带太平洋很可能在未来数月回暖,由于大部分模式暗示在秋冬季节温度将达到或超过厄尔尼诺临界值。
Recent observations indicate that warming of the tropical Pacific is occurring. The tropical Pacific Ocean sub-surface has warmed substantially over the past few weeks, which is likely to result in a warming of the sea surface in the coming months. A recent burst of westerly winds over the far western Pacific is the strongest seen since at least 2009 – the last time an El Ni?o developed.
目前的观测数据显示热带太平洋回暖正在进行。热带太平洋的次表层海温在过去数周明显提高,这将导致海表层温度在接下来数月内上升。目前西太平洋爆发的西风至少是2009年(上一次发生厄尔尼诺的年份)以来最强的一次。
El Ni?o is often, but not always, associated with below-average rainfall during the second half of the year across large parts of southern and inland eastern Australia. Daytime temperatures also tend to be above average over southern Australia.
厄尔尼诺发生时,澳大利亚南部和东部内陆的降水量通常(并不总是)在下半年低于平均,而南部的日平均气温偏高。
The Indian Ocean Dipole (IOD) is typically too weak to have a significant influence on the Australian climate from December to April. Current model outlooks indicate a neutral IOD through late autumn and early winter. However, the chance of a positive IOD event is elevated during El Ni?o.
由于印度洋偶极子(IOD)在12月至次年4年太弱,从而在这段时间它并不明显影响澳气候,当前模式预测IOD中性将维持至秋末冬初。而在厄尔尼诺年份,IOD正事件的概率被提升。
Monthly sea surface temperatures:
每月海表层温度:

The sea surface temperature (SST) anomaly map for February shows cooler-than-average SSTs in the eastern equatorial Pacific. Large areas of the surface waters of the western Pacific are warmer than average, extending from the area north of Indonesia and east of the Philippines to the South Pacific Convergence Zone (SPCZ) well to the east of Australia.
2月的海表层温度距平显示东太平洋赤道SSTs低于平均;而从印尼北部、菲东一直到南太平洋太平洋辐合带(SPCZ)和澳东部的西太平洋大部地区则高于平均。
1.gif
指数            1月          2月        温度变化
NINO3        -0.2         -0.5        低0.3 °C
NINO3.4     -0.3         -0.3        不变
NINO4         0.0         +0.4        高0.4 °C
Weekly sea surface temperatures:
每周海表层温度:

SST anomalies in the far eastern tropical Pacific have warmed compared to two weeks ago, with the appearance of warm anomalies along the equator in the far east. The anomaly map for the week ending 9 March shows cool temperature anomalies remain along part of the equator between 140°W and 100°W. Warm anomalies persist over much of the tropical Pacific west of the Date Line and around the SPCZ. Warm anomalies have developed along much of the coastline of the Americas, and now cover the far eastern equatorial Pacific. Around southern and eastern Australia surface waters remain warmer than average, as has been the case for several months.
和两周前相比,遥远的热带太平洋东部海温有所回升,并且赤道地区出现暖距平。截至3月9日的一周海温距平图显示部分140°W至100°W之间的赤道地区为冷距平,而暖距平则维持在日界线以西和SPCZ附近的西太平洋地区。美沿岸大部地区发展出的暖距平,现延伸至东太平洋赤道。澳东部和南部海表层高于平均,并已维持数月。
2.gif
指数            先前        当前        温度变化(两周)
NINO3        -0.6          -0.2        高0.4 °C
NINO3.4     -0.4          -0.3        高0.1 °C
NINO4       +0.4         +0.5        高0.1 °C
Monthly sub-surface:
每月次表层海温:

The four-month sequence of sub-surface temperature anomalies (to February) shows waters are cooler than average in the sub-surface of the equatorial Pacific east of 150°W while warmer than average west of the same point. This gradient of cool anomalies in the east and warm anomalies in the west has been similar for many months, but has strengthened significantly over the past three months. Water in an area of the eastern equatorial Pacific Ocean sub-surface between 130°W and 100°W at around 100 m depth is more than 4 °C cooler than average; warm anomalies in the western Pacific reached 3 °C at around 150 m depth between 170°W and 160°E.
4个月(截至2月)的次表层海温显示150°W 以东的赤道太平洋次表层低于平均,而150°W以西则高于平均。这种东冷西暖形势已维持数月,但在过去3个月明显加强。东太平洋赤道130°W 至 100°W地区100m深的次表层比平均低4℃,而西太平洋赤道170°W 至 160°E地区150m深次表层则高于平均3℃
3.gif
Weekly sub-surface:
每周次表层海温:

The sub-surface temperature map for the 5 days ending 9 March shows a large area of warm anomalies in the sub-surface of the equatorial Pacific, reaching more than 4 °C above average around 150 m depth in the central Pacific.
The animation of sub-surface temperature change over recent weeks shows this pool of warmer-than-average water developing and progressing across the Pacific. Such downwelling Kelvin wave events can be driven by westerly winds over the western tropical Pacific. If this pool of warmer-than-average sub-surface water rises to the surface in the eastern tropical Pacific this may lead to surface warming and the formation of an El Ni?o.
截至3月9日的5天次表层海温显示,赤道太平洋大部分地区为暖距平,中太平洋150m深次表层则比平均高4℃。最近几周次表层海温动态图显示这部分地区的暖距平正在发展并扩大,西太平洋西风带能够促进这种开尔文下层支的发展。如果这片暖距平能够蔓延至东太平洋海表层,这将导致表层海温的升高并形成厄尔尼诺。
4.gif
Southern Oscillation Index:
南方波动指数:

The Southern Oscillation Index (SOI) has continued to drop over the past two weeks, having dropped steadily over the past month from a peak of about +14. The latest approximate 30-day SOI value to 9 March is -6.3.
过去两周南方波动指数(SOI)继续下降,而且从上个月的巅峰值+14开始一直下降,截至3月9日最新的30天SOI指数为-6.3
Sustained positive values of the SOI above +8 may indicate a La Ni?a event, while sustained negative values below ?8 may indicate an El Ni?o event. Values of between about +8 and ?8 generally indicate neutral conditions.
持续的大于8.0的正SOI指数可能预示拉尼娜事件的发生,同样,持续低于-8将预示厄尔尼诺事件的发生,那么在8和-8之间就是中性状态。
5.png
Trade winds:
信风:

Strong westerly wind anomalies are present over the western tropical Pacific while trade winds are near-average along the equator in the central and eastern tropical Pacific (see anomaly map for the 5 days ending 23 February). This is the second strong westerly wind burst this year, with the first occurring between 19 and 30 January.
目前西太平洋西风强烈,而中东太平洋赤道信风接近平均(详见截至2月23日的5天距平图),这是今年第二次西风大爆发,第一次出现在1月19至30日。
During La Nia events, there is a sustained strengthening of the trade winds across much of the tropical Pacific, while during El Ni?o events there is a sustained weakening of the trade winds.
在拉尼娜盛行时,大部分热带太平洋的信风持续偏强,而厄尔尼诺时信风偏弱。
6.gif
Cloudiness near the Date Line:
日界线附近云量:

Cloudiness near the Date Line was briefly above average around the end of February and start of March, but has since returned to near-average values.
2月末至3月初日界线附近云量比平均略高,而后接近平均。
Cloudiness along the equator, near the Date Line, is an important indicator of ENSO conditions, as it typically increases (negative Outgoing Long-wave Radiation (OLR) anomalies) near and to the east of the Date Line during an El Ni?o event and decreases (positive OLR anomalies) during a La Ni?a event.
日界线赤道附近的云量是衡量ENSO状态的重要指标,每当厄尔尼诺发生时,日界线附近及以东海域的云量会特别的增加(OLR为负距平),而在拉尼娜发生时会减少(OLR为正距平)。
7.gif
Climate Models:
气候模式:

The majority of international climate models surveyed by the Bureau indicate that SSTs in the equatorial Pacific Ocean are likely to slowly warm, although remaining in the ENSOneutral range until at least the end of autumn. Some models suggest this warming may approach or exceed El Ni?o thresholds during winter.
The predictability of El Nio or La Nia conditions for the period extending through and beyond autumn is lower than for forecasts made at other times of the year (this known as “the autumn predictability barrier”). Longrange model outlooks should be used cautiously at this time.
大部分气候模式显示太平洋赤道SSTs缓慢回暖,虽然这种ENSO中性状态至少维持至秋末,但一些模式暗示这种回暖将在冬季达到或超过厄尔尼诺临界值。
由于模式在进入秋季以后预报厄尔尼诺或拉尼娜的能力比其他时候低(这就是所谓的“秋季预报性阻碍”),因此对这段时间的长期预报将更加小心和谨慎。


8.png
Indian Ocean Dipole:
印度洋偶极子:

The Indian Ocean Dipole (IOD) remains neutral, with the latest weekly index value (9 March) ?0.3 °C.
印度洋偶极子(IOD)维持中性,最新的IOD周值(截至3月9日)为-0.3℃
The IOD is typically not an active influence on Australian climate during summer and early autumn. During this time of year, establishment of negative or positive IOD patterns is largely inhibited by the development and position of the monsoon trough in the southern hemisphere.
IOD通常在夏季和早秋对澳气候影响不明显,在这段时间IOD的正负性很大程度上受限于南半球季风槽的位置和发展程度。
9.png
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金玉良言

发表于 2014-3-25 16:46 | 显示全部楼层

2014.03.25

Increased chance of El Ni?o in 2014
厄爾尼諾在2014年發生的可能性增加

While the tropical Pacific Ocean remains El Ni?o–Southern Oscillation (ENSO) neutral, the chance of an El Ni?o occurring in 2014 has increased. The latest climate model survey by the Bureau shows that the tropical Pacific is likely to warm in the coming months, with most models showing sea surface temperatures reaching El Ni?o thresholds during the southern hemisphere winter.
當熱帶太平洋維持在厄爾尼諾-南方濤動(ENSO)中性狀態之時,厄爾尼諾在2014年發生的可能性有所增加。本局最新的氣候預報顯示,熱帶太平洋或會在未來數月變暖,而大部分預報模式表示,在南半球的冬季期間,海洋表層溫度會到達厄爾尼諾的臨界值。
Observations indicate that the tropical Pacific Ocean is currently warming. Following two strong westerly wind bursts since the start of the year, waters below the surface of the tropical Pacific have warmed significantly over the past two months. This has led to some warming at the surface, with further warming expected in the coming weeks. The Southern Oscillation Index (SOI) has dropped to –13—the lowest 30-day value since March 2010—but would need to remain firmly negative for several weeks to indicate the atmosphere and ocean are reinforcing each other.
觀測表明熱帶太平洋正在變暖。在年初的兩次西風爆發以後,熱帶太平洋表層以下的水溫,在過去兩月內顯著上升。這導致表層的水溫變暖,並在未來數週持續。南方濤動指數(SOI)下跌至-13--為2010年3月以來的30天最低紀錄--但是仍須數週的持續負值,才能證明大氣和海洋正在互相影響。
El Ni?o is often, but not always, associated with below normal rainfall across large parts of southern and inland eastern Australia during the second half of the year. Daytime temperatures also tend to be above normal over southern Australia.
厄爾尼諾通常(但非必然)與下半年澳洲南部/東部內陸低於正常的降雨相關。澳洲南部的日間氣溫也有高於正常的趨勢。
The Indian Ocean Dipole (IOD) is typically too weak to have a significant influence on the Australian climate from December to April. Current model outlooks indicate a neutral IOD through late autumn and early winter.
印度洋偶極子(IOD)對12月-4月澳洲氣候的影響微乎其微。目前的氣候模式表示,IOD中性狀態會在南半球的秋末冬初以內維持。

Sea Surface Temperatures
海洋表層溫度

Monthly sea surface temperatures:  
每月海洋表層溫度

The sea surface temperature (SST) anomaly map for February shows cooler-than-average SSTs in the eastern equatorial Pacific. Large areas of the surface waters of the western Pacific are warmer than average, extending from the area north of Indonesia and east of the Philippines to the South Pacific Convergence Zone (SPCZ) well to the east of Australia.
2月的海洋表層溫度(SST)距平圖顯示,赤道太平洋東部存在著負距平區。西太平洋大部分區域的表層水溫高於正常,範圍從印尼北部、菲律賓以東延伸至南太平洋輻合帶(SPCZ)及澳洲東部。
指數            1月          2月       溫度變化
NINO3        -0.2         -0.5       下降0.3 °C
NINO3.4     -0.3         -0.3           不變
NINO4         0.0         +0.4      上升0.4 °C
sst_monthly.gif
Weekly sea surface temperatures:  
每周海洋表層溫度:

SST anomalies in the far eastern tropical Pacific have continued to warm over the past two weeks. The anomaly map for the week ending 23 March shows warm temperature anomalies along the equator west of the Date Line and in much of the far eastern equatorial Pacific, with waters in the central Pacific at near average temperatures. Warm anomalies have weakened around the SPCZ while strengthening around northwestern Australia.
遠東太平洋的SST正距平區,在過去兩週繼續變暖。直到3月23日為止的SST距平圖顯示,正距平區存在於換日線以西的赤道,以及遠東赤道太平洋的大部分地區;而中太平洋的水溫接近正常。SPCZ的正距平區有所減弱,而澳洲西北部的正距平區有所增強。
指數            過去        現在      溫度變化(兩週)
NINO3         -0.2         +0.2         上升0.4 °C
NINO3.4      -0.3         +0.1         上升0.4 °C
NINO4        +0.5         +0.5              不變
sst_weekly.gif

Pacific ocean sub-surface temperatures
太平洋地區的次表層海溫

Monthly sub-surface:  
每月次表層海溫:

The four-month sequence of sub-surface temperature anomalies (to 24 March) shows waters are slightly cooler than average in the sub-surface of the equatorial Pacific east of 130°W while strongly warmer than average west of the same point. The pool of warm water in the western Pacific sub-surface has been strengthening over recent months, and has started to progress eastward in the central Pacific, eroding the cooler waters in the east. Water around and east of the Date Line in the equatorial sub-surface between around 100 m and 200 m depth are more than 4 °C warmer than average.
過去4個月(直到3月24日為止)的次表層海溫距平序列指出,西經130度以東的赤道太平洋次表層水溫稍為低於正常,而在這個經度以西的則大幅高於正常。西太平洋的次表層暖水區,在最近數月有所增強,並開始東傳至中太平洋,導致其東面的冷水區縮小。換日線附近及其東面、赤道以下約100-200米的次表層水溫,高於正常超過4度。
sub_surf_mon.gif
Weekly sub-surface:  
每周次表層海溫:

The sub-surface temperature map for the 5 days ending 23 March shows a large area of warm anomalies in the sub-surface of the equatorial Pacific. This pool of warmer-than-average water reached more than 5 °C above average around 150 m depth in the central Pacific.
過去5天(直到3月23日為止)的次表層海溫距平序列指出,赤道太平洋的次表層,有一大範圍的正距平區。在中太平洋以下約150米,有著超過5度的正距平。
The animation of sub-surface temperature change over recent weeks shows this pool of warmer-than-average water developing and progressing across the Pacific. Such downwelling Kelvin wave events can be driven by westerly winds over the western tropical Pacific. If this pool of warmer-than-average sub-surface water rises to the surface in the eastern tropical Pacific this may lead to surface warming and the formation of an El Ni?o.
過去數週的次表層溫度變化動畫顯示,這片暖水區正在發展中,並沿著太平洋推進。這次的開爾文波下傳事件,可能是由熱帶西太平洋的西風帶動。假如這片次表層暖水區上傳至熱帶東太平洋的表層,表層海溫或會變暖,導致厄爾尼諾的形成。
sub_surf_tao.gif

Southern Oscillation Index:
南方濤動指數:

The Southern Oscillation Index (SOI) has continued to drop over the past two weeks, having dropped steadily over the past month from a peak of about +14. The latest approximate 30-day SOI value to 23 March is ?12.6. Recent values are the lowest since March 2010, during the last El Ni?o.
南方濤動指數(SOI)在過去兩週持續下跌,從上月的高位(+14)穩步下跌。直到3月23日為止,最新的30天SOI指數為-12.6。目前的數值為2010年3月以來(上一次厄爾尼諾事件發生期間)的最低紀錄。
Sustained positive values of the SOI above +8 may indicate a La Ni?a event, while sustained n
egative values below ?8 may indicate an El Ni?o event. Values of between about +8 and ?8 generally indicate neutral conditions.
SOI持續在+8以上,可能意味著拉尼娜事件的發生;而SOI持續在-8以上,可能意味著厄爾尼諾事件的發生。SOI在+8和-8之間維持的話,通常表示情況為中性。
soi30.png

Trade winds:
信風:

Westerly wind anomalies are present over the western tropical Pacific while trade winds are near-average along the equator in the eastern tropical Pacific (see anomaly map for the 5 days ending 23 March). A reversal of the trade winds (i.e. winds becoming westerly in the equatorial region) in the western Pacific has extended east to the Date Line; this is the first time this has occurred since the 2009–10 El Ni?o.
目前熱帶西太平洋的信風為西風距平,而熱帶西太平洋的信風接近正常。信風逆轉(i.e. 赤道地區的信風轉為偏西)的範圍,從西太平洋擴展至換日線以東;這是2009-10年厄爾尼諾事件以來的首次。
During La Ni?a events, there is a sustained strengthening of the trade winds across much of the tropical Pacific, while during El Ni?o events there is a sustained weakening of the trade winds.
在拉尼娜事件下,赤道太平洋地區的大部分地區的信風會持續增強;而在厄爾尼諾事件下,信風會持續減弱。
sst_wind_anom_5day.large.gif

Cloudiness near the dateline:
換日線附近的雲量:

Cloudiness near the Date Line has generally been above average from late February.
自2月以來,換日線附近的雲量大致多於正常。
Cloudiness along the equator, near the Date Line, is an important indicator of ENSO conditions, as it typically increases (negative Outgoing Long-wave Radiation (OLR) anomalies) near and to the east of the Date Line during an El Ni?o event and decreases (positive OLR anomalies) during a La Ni?a event.
換日線附近的赤道地區雲量,是ENSO狀況的重要指標之一,因為在厄爾尼諾事件下,換日線附近和以東的雲量通常會增加(OLR負距平),而在拉尼娜事件下則會減少(OLR正距平)。
region.ts.dateline.gif

Climate Models:
氣候模式:

All international climate models surveyed by the Bureau indicate that SSTs in the equatorial Pacific Ocean are likely to continue to warm during autumn and winter. All models but one indicate that El Ni?o thresholds will be reached or exceeded during the southern hemisphere winter.
本局參考的所有氣候模式皆表示,赤道太平洋的海洋表層溫度,會在南半球的秋冬以內繼續變暖。除了一個氣候模式以外,其餘的皆表示在南半球的冬季期間,海洋表層溫度會達到(或超過)厄爾尼諾的臨界值。
The predictability of El Ni?o or La Ni?a conditions for the period extending through and beyond autumn is lower than for forecasts made at other times of the year (this known as “the autumn predictability barrier”). Long-range model outlooks should be used cautiously at this time.
當厄爾尼諾/拉尼娜的預測橫跨秋季之時,準確度會較年內的其他時段為低(這種情況又名「秋季預測障礙」)。這段時期以內的長期預報,在使用時需要多加注意。
poama.nino34.small.png

Indian Ocean Dipole:  
印度洋偶極子:

The Indian Ocean Dipole (IOD) remains neutral, with the latest weekly index value (23 March) ?0.5 °C.
Climate models surveyed in the model outlooks continue to favour neutral IOD values over the coming months. The I
印度洋偶極子(IOD)維持中性,而最新一週的指數(3月23日)為-0.5度。
OD is not typically an active influence on Australian climate during early autumn, but the evolution of an El Ni?o would increase the change of a positive IOD event.
各個氣候模式展望,未來數月IOD數值繼續維持中性。在初秋期間,IOD不是影響澳洲氣候的要素,但是厄爾尼諾的發展,會增加IOD正相事件的可能性。
poama.iod.small.png
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发表于 2014-4-8 20:33 | 显示全部楼层

2014.04.08

El Niño likely to develop in winter
厄尔尼诺将于冬季发展

It is now likely (estimated at a greater than 70% chance) that an El Niño will develop during the southern hemisphere winter. Although the El Niño–Southern Oscillation (ENSO) is currently neutral, surface and sub-surface ocean temperatures have warmed considerably in recent weeks, consistent with a state of rapid transition. International climate models surveyed by the Bureau indicate continued warming of the central Pacific Ocean in coming months. Most models predict sea surface temperatures will reach El Niño thresholds during the coming winter season.
厄尔尼诺事件很可能于南半球的冬季时间发生。虽然目前厄尔尼诺-南方扰动状态为中性,但海表层和次表层在最近几周明显回暖,这与快速向厄尔尼诺转化的状态相一致。气象局提供的国际气候模式表明中太平洋将在接下来几月继续回暖,多数模式表明海表层温度将在冬季达到厄尔尼诺临界值。
El Niño is often, but not always, associated with below normal rainfall across large parts of southern and inland eastern Australia during the second half of the year. The strength of an El Niño does not always indicate how much it will influence Australian rainfall. Historically there are examples where weak events have resulted in widespread drought across large parts of Australia, while at other times strong events have resulted in relatively modest impacts. It is too early to determine the strength of this potential El Niño. Daytime temperatures tend to be above normal over southern Australia during El Niño.
厄尔尼诺发生时,澳大利亚南部和东部内陆地区通常(但不总是)降雨量低于平均。厄尔尼诺的强度并不都意味着它对澳下半年的降水量产生多大影响,历史上有这样的例子:在弱厄时,澳大利亚大部发生普遍干旱,而发生强厄时,干旱影响相对较小。现在对厄尔尼诺的潜在强度判断还过早,但厄尔尼诺发生时,澳大利亚昼温将高于平均。
The Indian Ocean Dipole (IOD) is currently in a neutral state. Model outlooks indicate the IOD will remain neutral through late autumn and early winter. The chance of a positive IOD event occurring will increase if an El Niño develops.
目前印度洋偶极子为中性,模式预测表明这种中性状态将维持至秋末冬初。随着厄尔尼诺的发展,将提高出现IOD正事件的几率。
Monthly sea surface temperatures、
每月海表层温度:

Compared to February, the equatorial Pacific has warmed over the past month. The sea surface temperature (SST) anomaly map for March shows that much of this region is now near average to warmer than average, while in February cool anomalies dominated along the equator in the east.
与2月相比,赤道太平洋在过去一个月已经转暖,3月的SST距平图显示这片区域海温接近或超过平均,而东太平洋赤道在二月为冷距平。
指数             2月        3月        温度变化
NINO3         -0.5        +0.1        高0.6 °C
NINO3.4      -0.3        0.0          高0.3 °C
NINO4         +0.4        +0.6        高0.2 °C
1.gif
Weekly sea surface temperatures
每周海表层温度:

The SST anomaly map for the week ending 6 April 2014 shows above-average SSTs have now emerged across most of the equatorial Pacific. The waters across the central to eastern Pacific have steadily warmed since February, with the current warming pattern consistent with an emerging El Niño.
Waters surrounding Australia are generally warmer than average, except for the northeast region.
截至4月6日的SST距平显示大部分赤道太平洋SSTS高于平均,自从2月开始,中东太平洋海温温度上升,目前的回暖模式与厄尔尼诺发展相一致。
指数            先前        当前        温度变化(两周)
NINO3        +0.2        +0.5         高0.3 °C
NINO3.4      +0.1        +0.3        高0.2 °C
NINO4         +0.5        +0.5        不变
2.gif
Monthly sub-surface temperatures
每月次表层海温:

The plot to the right shows the sub-surface temperature anomalies for the four months ending March 2014. Since January, a large volume of warmer-than-average water (known as a downwelling Kelvin wave) has progressed from the western Pacific sub-surface to the central Pacific sub-surface and warmed, eroding the cooler waters in the east. A very small area of weak negative anomalies remains in the east. Water below the surface in the central Pacific is now more than 4 °C warmer than average in some places.
截至2014年3月的4个月次表层距平图如下。从1月起,西太平洋次表层高于平均的暖水域(公认为开尔文下层支)大量涌入中太平洋并回暖,逐渐削弱了东太平洋的冷水域,目前东太平洋仅有小部分弱冷距平,部分次表层水域高于平均4℃。
3.gif
Weekly sub-surface temperatures
每周次表层海温:

The sub-surface temperature map for the 5 days ending 6 April 2014 shows positive anomalies have now progressed to the central and eastern sub-surface of the tropical Pacific. Parts of these waters are more than 4 °C warmer than normal in the shallow eastern sub-surface (near 50m depth), and also in the central sub-surface (near 150m depth).
截至2014年全年4月6日的5天次表层距平图显示,暖距平已经进入中东部次表层,部分东太平洋次表层浅水域(50m深水水域)和中太平洋(150m深水域)高于正常4℃
The animation of sub-surface temperature changes shows the progression of the warmer waters across the Pacific (which is, as previously mentioned, known as a Kelvin wave). Downwelling Kelvin wave events are driven by westerly winds over the western tropical Pacific. This pool of warmer-than-average sub-surface water is expected to cause a further warming at the surface of the tropical Pacific, which is now likely to contribute to the formation of an El Niño during winter.
次表层海温变化动态图显示太平洋水温回暖的过程(正如前面说到的开尔文波),开尔文下层支被西太平洋西风驱动,这片高于平均的次表层水域将会驱使热带太平洋表层海温的进一步回暖,这将导致冬季厄尔尼诺事件的发生。
4.gif
Southern Oscillation Index
南方波动指数:

Following a fall of 29 points in about eight weeks, the Southern Oscillation Index (SOI) has stabilised, and remained roughly steady over the past week. The latest approximate 30-day SOI value to 6 April 2014 is -9.0.
Sustained positive values of the SOI above +8 may indicate a La Niña event, while sustained negative values below -8 may indicate an El Niño event. Values of between about +8 and -8 generally indicate neutral conditions.
南方波动指数(SOI)在过去8周下降了29点后,于上周开始趋于稳定,截至4月6日的最新30天SOI值为-9.0。
持续的大于8.0的正SOI指数可能预示拉尼娜事件的发生,同样,持续低于-8将预示厄尔尼诺事件的发生,那么在8和-8之间就是中性状态。

5.png
Trade winds
信风:

Trade winds have returned to near average along the equator this week, after a sequence of strong westerly wind bursts in the west Pacific during January and February (see anomaly map for the 5 days ending 6 April 2014). There is an indication a weak Madden-Julian Oscillation event will move into the west equatorial Pacific next week, which may enhance westerly winds in this region again.
1、2月西太平洋赤道西风强烈爆发后,信风于本周回归平均值(详见截至4月6日的5天距平图)。预计季内震荡将在下周进入西太平洋赤道,这将再次增强该地区的西风。
During La Niña events, there is a sustained strengthening of the trade winds across much of the tropical Pacific, while during El Niño events there is a sustained weakening of the trade winds.
在拉尼娜盛行时,大部分热带太平洋的信风持续偏强,而厄尔尼诺时信风偏弱。
6.gif
Cloudiness near the Date Line
日界线附近云量:

Cloudiness near the Date Line has generally been above average from late February.
从2月末开始,日界线附近云量普遍高于平均。
Cloudiness along the equator, near the Date Line, is an important indicator of ENSO conditions, as it typically increases (negative OLR anomalies) near and to the east of the Date Line during an El Niño event and decreases (positive OLR anomalies) during a La Niña event.
日界线赤道附近的云量是衡量ENSO状态的重要指标,每当厄尔尼诺发生时,日界线附近及以东海域的云量会特别的增加(OLR为负距平),而在拉尼娜发生时会减少(OLR为正距平)。
7.gif
Models outlooks
模式预测:

All international climate models surveyed by the Bureau indicate that SSTs in the equatorial Pacific Ocean will continue to warm during autumn and winter. Almost all models indicate El Niño thresholds will be exceeded during the southern hemisphere winter.
气象局提供的所有气候模式表明赤道太平洋SSTs将继续在秋冬季节回暖,几乎所有模式预测将在南半球冬季超过厄尔尼诺临界值。
8.png
Indian Ocean Dipole
印度洋偶极子:

The Indian Ocean Dipole (IOD) remains neutral, with the latest weekly value (6 April) -0.5 °C.
印度洋偶极子(IOD)维持中性,最新一周(截至4月6日)IOD值为-0.5℃。
Climate models surveyed in the model outlooks favour neutral IOD values over the coming months. However, if an El Niño develops, the chance of a positive IOD event occurring will increase. Positive IOD events often coincide with El Niño and are typically associated with lower than normal winter and spring rainfall over parts of southern and central Australia.
气候模式预测支持IOD将在接下来几个月维持中性值。然而,随着厄尔尼诺的发生,IOD正事件的几率将增加。IOD正事件经常与厄尔尼诺同时发生,它通常使澳南部和中部部分地区在冬春季降水量低于正常。
9.png
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发表于 2014-4-23 22:20 | 显示全部楼层
2014.04.22
El Nino likely in 2014
2014年可能发生厄尔尼诺
The likelihood of El Nino remains high, with all climate models surveyed by the Bureau now indicating El Nino is likely to occur in 2014. Six of the seven models suggest El Nino thresholds may be exceeded as early as July.
厄尔尼诺发生的可能性仍然较高,气象局所有参考的气候模式均预测2014年可能会发生厄尔尼诺。7个模式中有6个预测7月份即可达到厄尔尼诺事件的标准。
The Pacific Ocean has been warming along the equator over recent weeks, with continued warming in the central Pacific likely in coming months. Another burst of westerly winds is presently occurring in the western Pacific, and is likely to cause further warming of the sub-surface.
最近数周太平洋赤道附近持续变暖,而接下来数月内中太可能会持续偏暖。当前西太平洋又爆发了一波西风,可能会导致次表层随之变暖。
El Nino has an impact across much of the world, including below average rainfall in the western Pacific and Indonesian regions, and increased rainfall in the central and eastern Pacific. For Australia, El Nino is usually associated with below average rainfall, with about two thirds of El Nino events since 1900 resulting in major drought over large areas of Australia.
厄尔尼诺在全球有着广泛的影响,诸如在西太平洋和印度尼西亚地区降水会偏少,在东中太地区降水偏多。对于澳大利亚,厄尔尼诺通常与降雨偏少相关联,1900年来三分之二的厄尔尼诺事件导致了澳大利亚大部干旱。
The Indian Ocean Dipole (IOD) is currently in a neutral state. Model outlooks currently suggest the IOD is likely to remain neutral through late autumn and early winter, with two of the five models surveyed suggesting a positive IOD may develop by early spring. Positive IOD events often coincide with El Nino and are typically associated with large parts of southern and central Australia experiencing lower rainfall than usual.
印度洋偶极子目前为中性。模式预测目前显示中性状态可能会维持到晚秋初冬,以及五分之二的模式预测印度洋偶极子正事件可能会于早春发展。印度洋偶极子正事件一般与厄尔尼诺事件相吻合,通常与中部和南部澳大利亚大范围降水偏少相关联。
Monthly sea surface temperatures
月度海表温度
Compared to February, the equatorial Pacific has warmed over the past month. The sea surface temperature (SST) anomaly map for March shows that much of this region is now near average to warmer than average, while in February cool anomalies dominated along the equator in the east.
相较于2月,赤道太平洋在过去的一个月里已变暖。3月海表温度距平显示该地区大部分海温接近平均或暖于平均,而在二月份东部赤道区域主要为冷距平。
指数              二月       三月      温度变化
NINO3           -0.5        +0.1   上升0.6 °C
NINO3.4        -0.3        0.0     上升0.3 °C
NINO4           +0.4        +0.6   上升0.2 °C
1.gif
Weekly sea surface temperatures
每周海表温度
The SST anomaly map for the week ending 20 April is similar to that of two weeks ago, with warm temperature anomalies along the equator covering most of the central Pacific and nearly the entire eastern Pacific. The current pattern of warm anomalies has been developing over the past two months and is consistent with a developing El Nino.
截至420日的海表温度距平图和两周前相似,赤道附近的海温正距平覆盖了中太的大部和几乎所有东太。目前的正距平模式在过去两个月里持续发展,和发展中的厄尔尼诺相一致。
Waters surrounding Australia are generally warmer than average, except for the northeast region.
澳大利亚周围的海表温度,除东北区域外,大部分偏暖。
指数                   之前       目前     温度变化(2周内)
NINO3                +0.5        +0.4       下降0.1°C
NINO3.4             +0.3        +0.3       无变化
NINO4                +0.5        +0.4       下降0.1°C
2.gif
Monthly sub-surface temperatures
月度次表层温度
The four-month sequence of sub-surface temperature anomalies (to 21 April) shows waters are warmer than average across most of the sub-surface of the equatorial Pacific. The sequence over recent months shows the development and eastward migration of this pool of warmer than average water. Water at around 100 m depth between 160°W and 130°W has reached more than 4 °C warmer than average.
过去四个月内次表层温度距平(截至421日)显示赤道太平洋大部分次表层暖于平均。最近数月的图列显示了一股暖于平均的海水的发展和迁移。在西经160度至西经130度之间的约100m深海水温度已高于平均超过4度。
3.gif
Weekly sub-surface temperatures
每周次表层温度
The sub-surface temperature map for the 5 days ending 20 April shows water in the sub-surface of the equatorial Pacific is generally warmer than average in the top 200 m. Water in an area of the sub-surface in the central equatorial Pacific has reached more than 3 °C above average around 150 m, while warmer anomalies in excess of 5 °C above average are present near the surface of the far eastern equatorial Pacific.
截至420日的次表层5日温度图显示赤道太平洋的次表层上200m海水普遍偏暖。中部赤道太平洋一区域的海水在约150m深处高于平均3度,同时高于平均5度的海水出现在东部赤道太平洋的近表层。
The animation of sub-surface temperature changes shows the progression of the warmer waters across the Pacific (which is known as a Kelvin wave). Downwelling Kelvin wave events are driven by westerly winds over the western tropical Pacific. This pool of warmer-than-average sub-surface water is expected to cause a further warming at the surface of the central and eastern tropical Pacific, and hence contribute to the formation of an El Nino during winter.
次表层温度变化动图显示了太平洋海域温暖海水的移动(即开尔文波)。开尔文波下沉支在西太平洋由西风驱动,一团暖于往期的次表层海水预期会导致东中太表层进一步变暖,进而促使冬季厄尔尼诺的形成。
4.gif
Southern Oscillation Index
南方涛动指数
The Southern Oscillation Index (SOI) has risen to neutral values over the past two weeks after a prolonged period of falling values. The latest approximate 30-day SOI value to 20 April is +2.2.
南方涛动指数已在长期的下降后经两周重新上升回到中性值。420日最新的30天南方涛动指数值是+2.2.
Sustained positive values of the SOI above +8 may indicate a La Nina event, while sustained negative values below-8 may indicate an El Nino event. Values of between about +8 and -8 generally indicate neutral conditions.
南方涛动指数持续高于8预测着拉尼娜事件的发生,而持续低于-8则预示着厄尔尼诺。介于-88之间的指数值反映中性状态。
5.png
Trade winds
信风
Westerly wind anomalies are present over the western half of the equatorial Pacific, while trade winds are near-average along the equator in the eastern tropical Pacific (see anomaly map for the 5 days ending 20 April).
赤道太平洋西半部份存在着西风距平,而在东部赤道太平洋信风水平接近平均(请看截至420日的五日距平图)
During La Nina events, there is a sustained strengthening of the trade winds across much of the tropical Pacific, while during El Ni?o events there is a sustained weakening of the trade winds.
在拉尼娜事件中,在大部分热带太平洋信风水平持续加强,而在厄尔尼诺事件中持续减弱。
6.gif
Cloudiness near the Date Line
国际换日线附近云量
Cloudiness near the Date Line has generally been above average since late February.
自二月底始,国际换日线附近云量普遍高于平均。
Cloudiness along the equator, near the Date Line, is an important indicator of ENSO conditions, as it typically increases (negative OLR anomalies) near and to the east of the Date Line during an El Nino event and decreases (positive OLR anomalies) during a La Ni?a event.
国际换日线赤道附近的云量是ENSO状态的重要指标,当厄尔尼诺发生时国际换日线附近及其东云量一般会增加(OLR负距平),而拉尼娜发生时云量减少(OLR正距平)。
7.gif
Model outlooks
模式展望
All international climate models surveyed by the Bureau indicate that SSTs in the equatorial Pacific Ocean are likely to continue to warm into winter. All models indicate that the equatorial Pacific is likely to exceed El Nino thresholds by the southern hemisphere spring, with six of seven models expecting this to occur by July.
气象局参考的所有国际气候模式均预测赤道太平洋海表温度将持续偏暖至冬季。所有模式均预测赤道太平洋将在南半球春季之前达到厄尔尼诺事件标准,7个模式中有6个预期具体发生时间为7月。
8.png
Indian Ocean Dipole
印度洋偶极子
The Indian Ocean Dipole (IOD) remains neutral, with the latest weekly index value (20 April) 0.0 °C.
印度洋偶极子保持中性状态,最新每周数值(420日)为0.0℃。
Climate models surveyed in the model outlooks favour neutral IOD values over the coming months. However, the development of an El Nino would increase the chance of a positive IOD event - two models indicate this is a possibility by early spring. Positive IOD events often coincide with El Nino and are typically associated with lower than average winter and spring rainfall over parts of southern and central Australia.
模式展望中参考的气候模式偏向预测在接下来的数月里数值保持中性。然而,厄尔尼诺的发展将会增加正印度洋偶极子事件发生的可能性——两个模式预测可能会发生在冬春之际。正印度洋偶极子事件通常与厄尔尼诺相吻合,也一般和澳大利亚中南部部分地区冬春季节降雨量偏少相关联。
9.png
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发表于 2014-5-20 21:36 | 显示全部楼层
2014.05.20
Tropical Pacific Ocean edges further toward El Nino
热带太平洋地区逐渐向厄尔尼诺发展
The tropical Pacific Ocean continues a general trend toward El Nino, with just over half of the climate models surveyed by the Bureau suggesting El Nino thresholds will be exceeded by August. An El Nino ALERT remains in place, indicating at least a 70% chance of an El Nino developing in 2014.
热带太平洋地区持续维持向厄尔尼诺发展的趋势,气象局参考的气候模式中超过一半认为八月前将会达到厄尔尼诺事件标准。厄尔尼诺预警信号持续,这意味着2014年至少有70%的可能性会发生厄尔尼诺。

The tropical Pacific Ocean surface has warmed steadily since February, with sea surface temperature anomalies increasing by 0.5 to 1.0 °C. For El Nino to be established and maintained, the sea surface needs to warm further, and be accompanied by a persistent weakening of the trade winds and a consistent increase in cloudiness near the Date Line. In the past fortnight, trade winds have generally been near normal, though have weakened once again in recent days.
二月份以来热带太平洋地区洋面稳定增暖,海表温度距平上升了0.51.0摄氏度不等。如果要达到并维持厄尔尼诺,洋面需要进一步变暖,且需要信风的持续减弱和日界线附近云量的持续增加。在过去的四周内,信风尽管在近日再次减弱,但基本持平。

El Nino has impacts on many parts of the world, for example, below-average rainfall in the western Pacific and Indonesian regions and increased rainfall in the central and eastern Pacific. For Australia, El Nino is usually associated with below-average rainfall over southern and eastern inland Australia, with about two thirds of El Nino events since 1900 causing major drought over large parts of the continent.
厄尔尼诺对全球许多地区有重要影响,例如,西北太平洋及印度尼西亚地区降雨量将减少,同时东中太平洋地区降雨量将增加。对于澳大利亚来说,厄尔尼诺主要和澳大利亚内陆东南部雨量偏少相关联,1900年来三分之二的厄尔尼诺事件造成了澳大利亚大陆大部干旱。

The Indian Ocean Dipole (IOD) is currently neutral. Model outlooks suggest the IOD is most likely to remain neutral through winter, with two of the five models surveyed suggesting a positive IOD may develop during spring. Positive IOD events often coincide with El Nino and are typically associated with large parts of southern and central Australia experiencing lower rainfall than usual.
印度洋偶极子目前为中性。模式认为印度洋偶极子将保持中性直至(南半球)冬季,其中气象局参考的五个模式中有两个认为在明年春季印度洋偶极子正事件将发展。印度洋偶极子正事件通常与厄尔尼诺相吻合,并通常与中部和南部澳大利亚大范围降水偏少相关联。

Monthly sea surface temperatures
月度海表温度
Compared to March, the equatorial Pacific has warmed over the past month. The sea surface temperature (SST) anomaly map for April shows weak warm anomalies across most of the equatorial Pacific. The tropical Pacific has been slowly but steadily warming over the past few months, with the central Pacific warming by 0.6 °C since February.
赤道太平洋地区相较于三月继续变暖。四月份的海表温度距平图显示赤道太平洋大部存在微弱的正距平。热带太平洋地区在过去的数月内缓慢但稳定的变暖,其中中太平洋相较于二月已增暖0.6摄氏度。

指数             三月        四月       温度变化
NINO3         +0.1        +0.4        变暖0.3℃
NINO3.4       0.0         +0.3        变暖0.3℃
NINIO4        +0.6        +0.5         变冷0.1℃
1.gif

Weekly sea surface temperatures
每周海表温度
The SST anomaly map for the week ending 18 May is similar to that of two weeks ago, although SSTs have warmed further in the far eastern equatorial tropical Pacific. Warm temperature anomalies are present along the equator from just east of Australia to the South American coast. This pattern is consistent with an emerging El Nino.
511日至518日一周的海表温度距平图类似于前两周,除了远东赤道太平洋(南美沿岸)海表温度进一步增暖。从澳大利亚以东至南美沿岸的赤道附近海域海温偏暖。这种模式和正在发展中的厄尔尼诺事件相一致。

Waters surrounding Australia are generally warmer than average and have warmed again in the Great Australian Bight, compared to two weeks ago, while cooling slightly along the southeast coast.
澳大利亚周围的海域普遍暖于平均,其中大澳洲湾海水相较于两周前再度变暖,东南沿岸海水变冷少许。

指数          之前           目前         温度变化(2周)
NINO3       +0.6           +0.7          变暖0.1℃
NINO3.4    +0.4           +0.5          变暖0.1℃
NINO4       +0.7           +0.7          无变化

2.gif
Monthly sub-surface temperatures
月度次表层海温
The four-month sequence of sub-surface temperature anomalies (to April) shows the development and eastward propagation of warmer than average water (known as a downwelling Kelvin wave event), which has now reached the eastern Pacific sub-surface. Waters are warmer than average across most of the sub-surface of the equatorial Pacific east of 160°E to a depth of around 150 m.
过去四个月内的次表层海温距平显示了一股暖水的发展和东移(即开尔文波下沉支事件),现在这股暖水已经到达东太平洋次表层。东经160度以东的赤道太平洋海域约150m深处次表层普遍暖于平均。
3.gif
Weekly sub-surface temperatures
每周次表层海温
The sub-surface temperature map for the 5 days ending 18 May shows water in the sub-surface of the equatorial Pacific is generally warmer than average in the top 100 m. Water in an area of the sub-surface in the central equatorial Pacific is currently more than 3 °C above average around 100 m depth, while anomalies in excess of 4 °C above average are present nearer the surface of the far eastern equatorial Pacific.
514日至518日的次表层海温图显示赤道太平洋次表层海温普遍暖于前100m深的平均温度。一块位于赤道太平洋中部的次表层水域相较于100m深平均温度目前超出至少3摄氏度,而远东赤道太平洋近表面存在超过4摄氏度的正距平。
4.gif
The animation of sub-surface temperature changes shows the progression of the warmer waters across the Pacific
(which is known as a Kelvin wave). Downwelling Kelvin wave events are driven by westerly winds over the western tropical Pacific. This pool of warmer-than-average sub-surface water is expected to cause a further warming
at the surface of the central and eastern tropical Pacific, which is likely to contribute to the formation of an El Nino during winter.
次表层海温变化动图显示了太平洋内一波暖水的发展(即开尔文波)。在西北太平洋,开尔文波下沉支由西风驱动。一股暖于平均的次表层海水预计会造成东中赤道太平洋洋面进一步变暖,有可能促进厄尔尼诺在(南半球)冬季形成。

Southern Oscillation Index
南方涛动指数
The Southern Oscillation Index (SOI) has remained within neutral values over the past two weeks. The latest approximate 30-day SOI value to 18 May is +3.0.
南方涛动指数在过去两周内维持中性。518日最新的30日指数值是+3.0.

Sustained positive values of the SOI above +8 may indicate a La Ni?a event, while sustained negative values below ?8 may indicate an El Nino event. Values of between about +8 and ?8 generally indicate neutral conditions.
南方涛动指数持续高于+8反映拉尼娜事件,而持续低于-8反映厄尔尼诺事件。指数值介于-8+8之间反映中性状态。
5.png
Trade winds
信风
Westerly wind anomalies are present over the western equatorial Pacific, while trade winds are near-average along the equator in the central and eastern tropical Pacific (see anomaly map for the 5 days ending 18 May).
目前在赤道太平洋西部存在西风距平,而在赤道太平洋东中部接近平均水平。(请看514-518日的距平图)

During La Nina events, there is a sustained strengthening of the trade winds across much of the tropical Pacific, while during El Nino events there is a sustained weakening of the trade winds.
信风在拉尼娜事件中将在热带太平洋大部持续加强,而在厄尔尼诺事件中持续减弱。
6.gif
Cloudiness near the Date Line
日界线附近云量
Cloudiness near the Date Line has continued to fluctuate around values close to the long term average during the past
two weeks.
日界线附近云量在过去两周内继续在长期平均水平附近波动。

Cloudiness along the equator, near the Date Line, is an important indicator of ENSO conditions, as it typically increases (negative OLR anomalies) near and to the east of the Date Line during an El Nino event and decreases (positive OLR anomalies) during a La Nina event.
日界线赤道附近的云量是反映ENSO状态的重要指标,当厄尔尼诺发生时国际换日线附近及其东云量一般会增加(OLR负距平),而拉尼娜发生时云量减少(OLR正距平)。
7.gif
Model outlooks
模式展望
All international climate models surveyed by the Bureau indicate that SSTs in the equatorial Pacific Ocean are likely to continue to warm into winter. Despite two climate models easing their prediction slightly over the past month, all but one of the eight models surveyed indicate that the equatorial Pacific is likely to exceed El Nino thresholds during the southern hemisphere spring. Half of the models show SSTs in the central equatorial Pacific considerably warmer than the threshold values by mid-spring.
气象局参考的所有国际气候模式均认为赤道太平洋海表温度将继续上升直至(南半球)冬季。尽管有两个模式在上个月略微调弱了预报,八个模式中有七个认为赤道太平洋区域可能在南半球春季达到厄尔尼诺事件的标准。一半模式显示赤道太平洋中部海表温度将在(南半球)春季中期远高于厄尔尼诺事件阈值。
8.png
Indian Ocean Dipole
印度洋偶极子
The Indian Ocean Dipole (IOD) remains neutral, with the latest weekly index value (18 May) 0.0 °C.
印度洋偶极子维持中性,518日最新每周指数值是0.0摄氏度。

Climate models surveyed in the model outlooks favour neutral IOD values over the coming months, with a slight trend towards a positive IOD developing in spring. The chance of a positive IOD event is elevated during an El Nino. Positive IOD events often coincide with El Nino and are typically associated with lower than average winter and spring rainfall over parts of southern and central Australia.
模式展望中参考的气候模式倾向认为在接下来的几个月内印度洋偶极子维持中性,在(南半球)春季略微向正值发展。在厄尔尼诺事件中印度洋偶极子正事件的可能性会上升。印度洋偶极子正事件通常与厄尔尼诺相吻合,且和澳大利亚中南部部分地区(南半球)冬春季节降雨量偏少相关联。 9.png
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金玉良言

发表于 2014-6-9 21:39 | 显示全部楼层

热带太平洋保持在2014年的厄尓尼诺趋势 20140603

The tropical Pacific Ocean remains on track for El Ni?o in 2014, with just over half of the climate models surveyed by the Bureau suggesting El Ni?o will become established by August. An El Ni?o ALERT remains in place, indicating at least a 70% chance of an El Ni?o developing in 2014.
热带太平洋保持在2014年的厄尓尼诺趋势,其中有超过一半被气象局调查的气候模型认为厄尓尼诺会在8月左右建立。因此厄尓尼诺警告仍然保持,并显示一次厄尓尼诺事件将有至少70%的机率在2014发展。
Sea surface temperature (SST) anomalies in the tropical Pacific Ocean have increased steadily since February, and are now greater than +0.5 °C in the key NINO regions. However, above-average SSTs also extend into the western tropical Pacific, meaning strong west to east gradients in tropical Pacific SST anomalies are yet to become established. As a result, atmospheric indicators—such as the Southern Oscillation Index and trade winds—have only shown a weak response.
自从二月以来,在热带太平洋的海温异常正持续增大,现在异常已经大于+0.5%的NINO区域。不过,正距平的海水表层温度也流入热带西太平洋,意味着强大的从西到东的热带太平洋表层海温异常的梯度也在准备建立。因此,大气的指标物,例如SOI指数和信风,仅仅显示出弱应答。
For Australia, El Ni?o is often associated with below-average rainfall over southern and eastern inland areas and above-normal daytime temperatures over southern parts of the continent. It is not uncommon to see some impacts prior to an event becoming fully established. May rainfall was below normal across parts of eastern Australia and maximum temperatures were above normal across much of the south and east.
对于澳洲,厄尓尼诺通常和南部、东部内陆地区的负距平降水和大陆南部正距平的高温。但并不奇怪的是,一些影响有可能在事件完全建立时显现。东澳洲的五月降水低于常年,而东部和南部的高温则高于常年。
The Indian Ocean Dipole (IOD) is currently neutral. Model outlooks suggest the IOD is most likely to remain neutral through winter, with two of the five models surveyed suggesting a positive IOD may develop during spring. Positive IOD events often coincide with El Ni?o and are typically associated with large parts of southern and central Australia experiencing lower rainfall than usual.
印度洋偶极子现则处于中性状态。模型预测显示,IOD将会在整个冬季维持中性。正相IOD事件通常和厄尓尼诺同时发生,并通常和澳洲南部、中部的大部分地区的负距平降水相联系。
表层海温

月度表层海温
The equatorial Pacific continued to warm during May. The sea surface temperature (SST) anomaly map for May shows warm anomalies are present in the Pacific along nearly the entire equator as well as to Australia’s northwest and around much of the Maritime Continent to Australia’s north. Compared to last month, anomalies in the eastern tropical Pacific and around the Date line have shown the most warming.
在五月,近赤道的太平洋继续变暖。海温距平图显示,正距平地区正位于太平洋几乎整个赤道地区和澳洲西北部,并包围大部分沿海大陆到澳洲北部。和上个月相比,西太平洋和日界线附近的距平显示最大的变暖。
根据的数据时期:1961–1990.
数值        四月  五月 温度变化
NINO3    +0.4  +0.7     0.3 °C  变暖
NINO3.4 +0.3  +0.5     0.2 °C  变暖
NINO4    +0.5  +0.7     0.2 °C  变暖
sst_monthly.gif
每周表层海温
The SST anomaly map for the week ending 1 June is similar to that of two weeks ago, although warm SST anomalies are now seen across the entire tropical Pacific. Warm SST anomalies are also seen across large areas of western Pacific from the East China Sea to the waters surrounding Australia. These warm anomalies extend into the Indian Ocean.
在0601结束的表层海温距平图和两周前的类似,除了正距平地区现在已经覆盖整个热带太平洋。表层海温正距平地区也在从东海到澳洲周围海域的广大地区显现。这些正距平地区正向印度洋推进。
While the warm tongue of water extending along the equator in the eastern and central Pacific is typical of an emerging El Ni?o, the warm anomalies in the western Pacific mean the west to east gradient of temperatures is not yet large enough to generate and sustain a typical El Ni?o response in the tropical atmosphere.
虽然海水的暖舌在中东太平洋的赤道地区扩展对于一次发展中的厄尓尼诺十分典型,但从西到东的温度梯度意味着的西太平洋正距平并不足够大以发生、支撑一次热带大气的典型厄尓尼诺反应。
根据的数据时期:1961-1990
数值        常年    现在    两周温度变化
NINO3     +0.7   +0.8   0.1 °C   变暖
NINO3.4 +0.5    +0.6   0.1 °C   变暖
NINO4     +0.7    +0.7     无变化
sst_weekly.gif
次表层海温

每月次表层海温
The four-month sequence of sub-surface temperature anomalies (to May) shows warm temperature anomalies across the top 150 m of the equatorial Pacific between the Date Line and the South American coast. Sub-surface waters are more than 4 °Cwarmer than average in several parts of the central and eastern equatorial Pacific
四个月以来的次表层海温的一系列异常显示在赤道太平洋海水顶部150米,位于日界线和南美大陆之间的暖水距平。次表层海温比一些中东赤道太平洋地区的均值高4度。
sub_surf_mon.gif
5日次表层海温
The sub-surface temperature map for the 5 days ending 1 June shows water in the sub-surface of the eastern half of the equatorial Pacific is warmer than average in the top 100 m. Water in an area of the sub-surface in the far eastern equatorial Pacific is currently more than 5 °Cabove average around 50 m depth.
截至0601的五日次表层海温距平显示100米深处的位于赤道东太平洋的次表层海温处于正距平。而在50米深处的位于赤道东太平洋深处的次表层海水比常年高5度以上。
As shown in the animation of sub-surface  temperature changes, this pool of warmer-than-average sub-surface water has been present in the eastern tropical Pacific for a number of weeks and is likely to sustain the surface warming in the region during winter.
正如次表层海温的强烈变化,这个正距平暖水团已经在热带东太平洋出现了几个星期,并将支持冬季这个地区的表层海水变暖。
sub_surf_tao.gif
南方涛动指数
The Southern Oscillation Index (SOI) has risen over the past two weeks but remains within neutral values. The latest approximate 30-day SOI value to 1 June is +6.2.
SOI数值也在过去两个星期上升,但仍保持在中性状态。最新的30天的SOI数值截至0601是+6.2。
Sustained positive values of the SOI above +8 may indicate a La Ni?a event, while sustained negative values below ?8 may indicate an El Ni?o event. Values of between about +8 and ?8 generally indicate neutral conditions.
持续的大于8.0的正SOI指数可能预示拉尼娜事件的发生,同样,持续低于-8将预示厄尔尼诺 事件的发生,那么在8和-8之间就是中性状态。
soi30.png

信风
Trade winds are near-average across the tropical Pacific (see anomaly map for the 5 days ending 1 June).
热带太平洋的信风正位于均值附近。(见截至0601的五天距平图)
During La Ni?a events, there is a sustained strengthening of the trade winds across much of the tropical Pacific, while during El Ni?o events there is a sustained weakening of the trade winds.
在拉尼娜期间,大部分热带太平洋的信风偏强,而厄尔尼诺时信风偏弱。
sst_wind_anom_5day.gif
日界线云量
Cloudiness near the Date Line has continued to fluctuate around values close to the long-term average during the past two weeks.
Cloudiness along the equator, near the Date Line, is an important indicator of ENSO conditions, as it typically increases (negative OLR anomalies) near and to the east of the Date Line during an El Ni?o event and decreases (positive OLR anomalies) during a La Ni?a event.
过去两周的日界线云量继续在均值附近波动。
日界线赤道附近的云量是ENSO状态的重要指标,每当厄尔尼诺发生时,日界线附近及以东 海域的云量会特别的增加(OLR为负距平),而在拉尼娜发生时会减少(OLR为正距平)。
region.ts.dateline.small.gif
印度洋偶极子
The Indian Ocean Dipole (IOD) remains neutral, with the latest weekly index value (1 June) +0.1 °C.
印度洋偶极子保持中性,截至0601的每周数值是+0.1度。
Climate models surveyed in the model outlooksfavour neutral IOD values over the coming months, with a slight trend towards a positive IOD developing in spring. The chance of a positive IOD event is elevated during an El Ni?o. Positive IOD events often coincide with El Ni?o and are typically associated with lower than average winter and spring rainfall over parts of southern and central Australia.
查看的气候模型都支持印度洋偶极子在接下来一个月保持中性,并在春季有轻微的向正相发展的趋势。印度洋偶极子正相的机会在厄尓尼诺时期会增大。正相IOD事件通常和厄尓尼诺同时发生,并通常和澳洲南部、中部的大部分地区的负距平降水相联系。
poama.iod.small.png
气候模型结果
Most international climate modelssurveyed by the Bureau indicate that SSTs in the equatorial Pacific Ocean are likely to continue to warm during winter. Several of the surveyed climate models have eased their predictions slightly since the last update but around half continue to indicate that the equatorial Pacific is likely to exceed El Ni?o thresholds before or during the southern hemisphere spring.
大部分被气象局查看的气候模型显示赤道太平洋的表层海温将在冬季继续变暖。少部分被查看的模型则在上一次升级后稍微减轻了预报的程度,但大概一半继续显示赤道太平洋将在南半球冬季期间或之前超越厄尓尼诺门槛。
poama.nino34.small.png
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发表于 2015-9-4 13:12 | 显示全部楼层

厄爾尼諾南方濤動總結(ENSO Wrap-Up)

dial-5.png

厄爾尼諾有所增強,但印度洋亦同時偏暖
發佈於二零一五年九月一日
El Nino strengthens but a warm Indian Ocean
Issued on 1 September 2015

二零一五年的厄爾尼諾是自一九九七至一九九八年以來最強的厄爾尼諾。熱帶太平洋與大氣層全面配合,海平面温度已遠超厄爾尼諾的門檻,而信風持續偏弱,南方濤動指數亦強烈低企。每週在中太平洋的熱帶太平洋温度異常(即距平差異)現已達到自一九九七至一九九八年以來的最高值,儘管仍然低於該次觀測到的巔峰超過半度。
The 2015 El Nino is now the strongest El Nino since 1997–98. The tropical Pacific Ocean and atmosphere are fully coupled, with sea surface temperatures well above El Nino thresholds, consistently weak trade winds, and a strongly negative Southern Oscillation Index. Weekly tropical Pacific Ocean temperature anomalies (i.e. difference from normal) in the central Pacific are now at their highest values since 1997–98, though still remain more than half a degree below the peak observed during 1997–98.

大部分澳洲氣象局檢視的國際氣候模式都表示熱帶太平洋會繼續變暖,而最大的異常值會在今年稍後出現。通常厄爾尼諾在南半球晚春或初夏達致頂峰,然後於夏末至秋天減弱。截至目前為止,二零一五年的厄爾尼諾事件一直遵從著正常的厄爾尼諾生命週期。
Most international climate models surveyed by the Bureau of Meteorology indicate the tropical Pacific will continue to warm, with the largest anomalies occurring later in the year. Typically, El Nino peaks during the late austral spring or early summer, and weakens during late summer to autumn. The 2015 event has, so far, been following a normal El Nino life cycle.

在印度洋整體温度接近歷史紀錄的同時,印度洋偶極(Indian Ocean Dipole — IOD)指數在過去四星期持續錄得正0.4 °C或以上。若今次要被承認為一次正態事件,IOD指數便須在九月維持在正0.4 °C或以上。澳洲氣象局檢視的五個國際模式中有三個表示一次正態事件較可能在春天發生。
While the Indian Ocean as a whole has been at near-record temperatures, the Indian Ocean Dipole (IOD) index has been at or above +0.4 °C for the past four weeks. To be considered a positive event, the IOD would need to remain at or above +0.4 °C through September. Three of the five international models surveyed by the Bureau of Meteorology indicate a positive IOD event is likely during spring.

厄爾尼諾通常為澳洲東部帶來低於正常的冬、春季雨量,而正態IOD通常令此形勢在澳洲中部和東南部加以鞏固。然而,澳洲以北乃至更廣泛地印度洋區的海表温度,亦會影響澳洲的氣候,並較可能在某些地點對上述兩樣氣候驅使者的影響起中和作用。
El Nino is usually associated with below-average winter–spring rainfall over eastern Australia, and a positive IOD typically reinforces this pattern over central and southeast Australia. However, sea surface temperatures to the north of Australia and more broadly across the Indian Ocean basin, also affect Australia\'s climate and are likely to be moderating the influence of these two climate drivers in some locations.

每週海表温度
Weekly sea surface temperatures

sst_weekly.gif
指數          上週    今週      温度變化(兩週)
NINO3      +1.9     +2.0       暖了0.1 °C
NINO3.4   +1.8     +2.0       暖了0.2 °C
NINO4      +1.0     +1.2       暖了0.2 °C
基準期為1961至1990年

在赤道一帶多處,位於東至中太平洋以至西北太平洋的海表温度異常值於過去兩週有所上升。温暖異常值已持續出現於赤道一帶,東抵南美洲沿岸,西達換日線,亦涵蓋北半球換日線以東的大部分太平洋。
Over the past fortnight sea surface temperature (SST) anomalies have increased along much of the equator in the eastern to central Pacific and in the northwestern Pacific. Warm anomalies persist along the equator from the South American coastline to the Date Line and across most of the Pacific Ocean east of the Date Line in the northern hemisphere.

就終於八月三十日那一週而言,西經170度以東的大部分赤道太平洋的海温異常值超過了正2 °C 。北太平洋東半部比起正常暖多過一度,其中大範圍海域更暖多過兩度。另外,温暖異常值亦有在澳洲東岸部分地區、澳洲以西和印度洋大部分海域出現。
Anomalies for the week ending 30 August exceeded +2 °C across most of the equatorial Pacific east of 170°W. The eastern half of the northern Pacific was more than one degree warmer than average, with large areas more than two degrees warmer than average. Warm anomalies were also present along parts of the east coast of Australia, in areas to Australia\'s west, and across large parts of the Indian Ocean.

本週所有五項尼諾(NINO)指數維持1 °C以上。尼諾3NINO3)與尼諾3.4NINO3.4)都在二零一五年終於八月三十日那一週錄得高過正2 °C。這是今次事件以來首次該兩項指數皆錄得高過正2 °C,更是自一九九七至一九九八年的厄爾尼諾以來的首次。
All five NINO indices remain above +1 °C this week. Both NINO3 and NINO3.4 exceeded +2 °C for the week ending 30 August 2015. This is the first time either of these indices have exceeded +2 °C during this event, and the first time since the 1997–98 El Nino.

每月海表温度
Monthly sea surface temperatures

sst_monthly.gif
指數          六月    七月      温度變化
NINO3      +1.6     +1.9       暖了0.3 °C
NINO3.4   +1.3     +1.5       暖了0.2 °C
NINO4      +1.1     +1.1       無變

二零一五年七月的海表温度異常圖顯示正異常值從南美洲沿岸,橫越赤道太平洋、經過換日線並伸展至約東經160度。和六月相比,東太平洋的異常值有所增強。強勁的温暖異常值亦在東北太平洋大部分海域維持,偏弱的温暖異常值集結在澳洲以東,至於印度洋多處則有中等到偏強的温暖異常值盤踞。
The SST anomaly map for July 2015 shows positive anomalies extended from the South American coastline, across the equatorial Pacific, past the Date Line to around 160°E. Compared to June, the strength of these anomalies have increased in the eastern Pacific. Strong warm anomalies also persisted across much of the northeast of the Pacific Basin, with weak warm anomalies to Australia\'s east, and moderate to strong warm anomalies across much of the Indian Ocean.

NINO3 測量到自一九九七至一九九八年的厄爾尼諾以來最温暖的每月異常值;二零一五年七月數值達正1.9 °C,領先今年六月的正1.7 °C和二零零九年十二月的正1.6 °C。二零一五年七月NINO3.4的數值是正1.5 °C
NINO3 measured its warmest monthly anomaly since the 1997–98 El Nino, with an anomaly of +1.9 °C for July 2015, ahead of +1.7 °C in June 2015 and +1.6 °C December 2009. The July 2015 value of NINO3.4 was +1.5 °C.

未來幾週,NINO3.4的海區異常值有機會超越二零零二年和二零零九年厄爾尼諾時的巔峰值(分別為正1.6 °C和正1.7 °C)。現時的厄爾尼諾異常值已經超越了二零零六年的正1.2 °C巔峰值,但仍遠遠落後於一九八二年和一九九七年的巔峰值(分別為正2.8 °C和正2.7 °C)。註:巔峰值通常於一年較後時間錄得。
In the coming weeks, the NINO3.4 region may exceed the peak anomaly values reached during the 2002 (+1.6 °C) and 2009 (+1.7 °C) El Nino. The current El Nino has already exceeded the 2006 peak of +1.2 °C, but current anomalies still remain well short of the 1982 and 1997 peaks (+2.8 °C and +2.7 °C respectively). Note: peak values are typically recorded late in the year.

五日海表下温度
5-day sub-surface temperatures

sub_surf_tao.gif

從終於八月三十日的五日海表下温度圖可見,中至東赤道太平洋表層150米的水温較平均温,而西赤道太平洋海表以下則較平均清涼。太平洋東部遠處海表以下的水温更是顯著較平均温暖,有一大範圍的異常值在水深75米左右比平均温暖7 °C以上。該處海域的異常值較兩週前有所增強和擴大。
The sub-surface temperature map for the 5 days ending 30 August shows temperatures were warmer than average in the top 150 m of the central to eastern equatorial Pacific and cooler than average below the surface of the ocean in the western equatorial Pacific. Water in far eastern Pacific sub-surface was very much warmer than average, with a large area of anomalies around 75 m depth more than 7 °C warmer than average. Anomalies in this area have strengthened and increased in area compared to two weeks ago.

西赤道太平洋的清涼異常值相比兩週前變化不大。一個比平均清涼2 °C以上的廣闊海域繼續存在於水深約100米至200米之間。
Cool anomalies in the western equatorial Pacific remain generally similar compared to two weeks ago. A broad area of anomalies more than 2 °C cooler than average persists between around 100 m and 200 m depth.

此等海表下温度在東面異常温暖,西面異常清涼的形勢與一次充分建立的厄爾尼諾相乎。
The pattern of warm anomalies in the eastern sub-surface and cool anomalies in the west is consistent with a well-established El Nino.

就五日平均值而言(上圖),温躍層近乎平坦。温躍層於20 °C區間上下起伏,被認為是分隔温暖表層海水與下層較涼海水的中間線。這情況趨向只在強厄爾尼諾事件中出現。
In the mean 5-day values (upper panel), the thermocline is almost flat. The thermocline sits around the 20 °C region, and is considered mid-point between the warmer surface waters, and cooler subsurface waters. This tends to only occur during strong El Nino events.

每月海表下温度
Monthly sub-surface temperatures

sub_surf_mon.gif

海表下温度異常值的四個月(至八月)排序圖顯示,過去四個月的異常值形勢大致相乎。位處約東經170度與南美洲沿岸之間的赤道太平洋,海表下首200米的温異常值於八月顯而易見。赤道太平洋東半部有大範圍海域的每月異常值達到超過正4 °C。一處清涼異常值則在西赤道太平洋的海表下維持。
The four-month sequence of sub-surface temperature anomalies (to August) shows a generally consistent pattern of anomalies throughout the past four months. Warm anomalies were evident for August in the top 200 m of the equatorial Pacific sub-surface between about 170°E and the South American coast. Monthly anomalies across large areas of the eastern half of the equatorial Pacific reached more than +4 °C. An area of cool anomalies persisted in the sub-surface of the western equatorial Pacific.

南方濤動指數
Southern Oscillation Index

soi30.png


南方濤動指數(Southern Oscillation Index SOI)於過去兩週稍為下挫,之後回穩至兩週前的水平。至八月三十日的三十日SOI數值為負20.4
The Southern Oscillation Index (SOI) dipped slightly during the past two weeks, before stabilising at values similar to two weeks ago. The 30-day SOI value to 30 August was -20.4.

SOI正值持續高於正7可能表示拉尼娜,而負值持續低於負7可能表示厄爾尼諾。數值於正7和負7之間一般表示中性情況。
Sustained positive values of the SOI above +7 may indicate La Nina, while sustained negative values below -7 may indicate El Nino. Values of between about +7 and -7 generally indicate neutral conditions.

信風
Trade winds

sst_wind_anom_5day.large.gif

至八月三十日的五日信風資料顯示,西風異常值存在於西至中赤道太平洋,跟兩週前相比變化不大。赤道以北、換日線以西的信風呈逆轉狀態(即西風)。
Trade winds for the 5 days ending 30 August show westerly anomalies were present over the western to central equatorial Pacific, remaining similar to two weeks ago. Trade winds were reversed (i.e. westerly winds) to the north of the equator west of the Date Line.

自二零一五年年初開始,信風已經持續較平均微弱,有時更呈逆轉狀態(即西風而非東風)。
Trade winds have been consistently weaker than average, and on occasion reversed in direction (i.e. westerly rather than easterly), since the start of 2015.

拉尼娜事件發生時,赤道太平洋大範圍海域的信風持續增強;而厄爾尼諾事件發生時,信風則持續減弱。
During La Nina events, there is a sustained strengthening of the trade winds across much of the tropical Pacific, while during El Nino events there is a sustained weakening of the trade winds.

換日線附近雲量
Cloudiness near the Date Line

region.ts.dateline.gif

換日線附近雲量短暫略低於平均值後,於八月尾重返平均值以上。
Cloudiness near the Date Line returned to above-average
values at the end of August after a brief period of values slightly lower than
average.

赤道一帶近換日線的雲量是厄爾尼諾南方濤動(El Nino Southern Oscillation ENSO)的一項重要指標,因其通常於厄爾尼諾發生時於換日線附近及以東上升(地球長波輻射(Outgoing Longwave Radiation OLR)負異常值),於拉尼娜發生時下降(OLR正異常值)。
Cloudiness along the equator, near the Date Line, is an important indicator of ENSO, as it typically increases (negative OLR anomalies) near and to the east of the Date Line during El Nino and decreases (positive OLR anomalies) during La Nina.

模式展望
Model outlooks

poama.nino34.small.png

澳洲氣象局檢視的八個國際氣候模式,大部分都表示中太平洋較可能在未來數月進一步變暖。約半數模式表示今次事件的強度或會於春天至初夏開始到頂橫行。
Most of the eight international climate models surveyed by the Bureau indicate there is likely to be some further warming of central Pacific Ocean during the coming months. About half the models indicate the event may begin to plateau during spring to early summer.

所有檢視過的模式都表示NINO3.4會維持在厄爾尼諾門檻以上,直至起碼二零一六年年初,而大部分模式表示今次事件的NINO3.4巔峰值較可能出現在初夏至仲夏期間。
All surveyed models indicate that NINO3.4 will remain above El Nino thresholds until at least the start of 2016, with most models indicating the peak NINO3.4 values of the event are likely to occur during early to mid-summer.

印度洋偶極
Indian Ocean Dipole

iod-july-sst-timeseries.png
poama.iod.small.png

印度洋偶極(IOD)指數已連續四星期達到甚至高過正0.4 °C的門檻值。至八月三十日的每週IOD指數值為正0.57 °C
Values of the Indian Ocean Dipole (IOD) index have been at or above the threshold level of +0.4 °C for four weeks. The weekly value of the IOD index to 30 August was +0.57 °C.

印度洋大範圍洋區的海表温度較平均温暖,印度洋整體温度亦於最近幾月接近歷史紀錄(參見七月的每月異常值時序)。通常一次正態IOD事件,具有印尼島嶼蘇門塔納離岸出現較平均清涼海水的特徴(參見「有關印度洋偶極」)。
Sea surface temperatures (SSTs) in the Indian Ocean are warmer than average over much of the basin, and the Indian Ocean as a whole has been at near-record temperatures in recent months (see timeseries of July monthly anomalies). Typically, a positive IOD event is characterised by cooler-than-average water off the coast of the Indonesian island of Sumatra (see About the Indian Ocean Dipole).

正態IOD事件通常為澳洲中部與東南部部分地區帶來較低雨量。正態IOD事件較可能於厄爾尼諾發生時出現,而後者亦通常令澳洲東部的冬、春季雨量下降。
Positive IOD events are often associated with lower rainfall in parts of central and southeastern Australia. Positive IOD events are more likely to occur during El Nino, which also is typically associated with a reduction in winter–spring rainfall in eastern Australia.

然而,印度洋區的海表温度同樣影響著澳洲的氣候那些廣泛的温暖異常值較可能已中和了上述兩樣氣候驅使者的影響(參見氣候展望)。
However, sea surface temperatures in the Indian Ocean basin also affect Australia\'s climate—it\'s likely that the widespread warm anomalies have moderated the influence of these two climate drivers (see Climate Outlook).

澳洲氣象局檢視的五個國際氣候模式中,有三個表示一次正態IOD事件較可能於南半球春天發生。若果現在高於正0.4 °CIOD指數值能持續至九月較後時間,二零一五年將獲承認為一正態IOD年。
Three of the five surveyed international climate models indicate a positive IOD event is likely during the southern hemisphere spring. If the current values of the IOD index above +0.4 °C are maintained until late September, 2015 will be considered a positive IOD year.

El-Nino-in-Australia-summary.jpg



新手初次翻譯ENSO,如有錯漏,還請多多包涵!
Wednesday Morning, 3 A.M.,
The Sound of Silence
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发表于 2016-7-26 19:05 | 显示全部楼层
出错,请删此贴
20160719.ssta_pacific_weekly.png
20160719.ssta_pacific_monthly.png
20160719.tao_sst_wind_anom_5day.png
20160719.tao_sub_surface.png
20160719.sub_surface_anom.png
soi30.png
20160719.cloudiness.png
20160719.poama_nino34.png
20160719.poama_iod.png
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发表于 2016-7-26 19:19 | 显示全部楼层

ENSO处于中性,负相印度洋偶极子增强20160717

ENSO处于中性,负相印度洋偶极子增强
ENSO neutral, negative Indian Ocean Dipole strengthens

太平洋ENSO指数保持中性,而印度洋海水表面温度显示出较强的负相印度洋偶极子(IOD
[sub][/sub][sup][/sup]ENSO indicators in the Pacific Ocean remain neutral, while sea surface temperatures in the Indian Ocean show a strong negative Indian Ocean Dipole (IOD).

最新的IOD指数显示偶极子在最近几周内已经加强。气候模型显示负相印度洋偶极子将持续到春季结束。负相印度洋偶极子在冬春季通常给澳大利亚南部带来正距平的降雨与更凉爽的昼温以及给澳大利亚北部带来更温暖的昼温和夜温。[sub][/sub][sup][/sup]Latest values of the IOD index show the dipole has strengthened in recent weeks. Climate models indicate the negative IOD will persist through to the end of spring. A negative IOD typically brings above average rainfall to southern Australia during winter-spring, with cooler daytime temperatures across southern Australia, and warmer daytime and night-time temperatures in northern Australia.[sub][/sub][sup][/sup]


在热带太平洋,最新的模型展望显示2016年拉尼娜几率降低。大多数气候模型表明中太平洋将继续降温但八个模型中只有两个通过南方的春季显示拉尼娜值。从最近的云量观测中看出,信风和南方涛动指数(SOI)与正常模式变化不大。这些观测结果与当前的气候模型预测相结合意味着ENSO展望仍处于拉尼娜状态。这意味着拉尼娜在2016年形成的可能性依然有50
In the tropical Pacific Ocean, recent model outlooks indicate a reduced chance of La Ni?a in 2016. Most climate models indicate the central Pacific Ocean will continue to cool, but only two of eight models show La Ni?a values through the southern spring. Recent observations of cloudiness, trade winds and the Southern Oscillation Index (SOI) show little change from normal patterns. These observations, combined with current climate model outlooks, means the Bureau\'s ENSO Outlook remains at La Nia WATCH. This means the likelihood of La Nia forming in 2016 remains a 50% chance.
通常在拉尼娜现象下澳大利亚北部、中部和东部冬春季降水高于平均值。如果拉尼娜确实开始发展,气候模型表明它不会像最近2010-12年那次有记录以来最强的拉尼娜现象之一那样强。
Typically during La Nia, winterspring rainfall is above average over northern, central and eastern Australia. If La Ni?a does develop, climate models indicate it will not be as strong as the most recent La Ni?a of 2010–12, which was one of the strongest La Ni?a on record.

每周海表温度
Weekly sea surface temperatures[sub][/sub][sup][/sup]

热带太平洋中部海表温度保持在正常范围值内,但在过去两周时间内东部地区略有降温。
Sea surface temperatures (SSTs) in the central tropical Pacific Ocean remain within neutral thresholds, but have cooled slightly in the eastern region during the past fortnight.
西太平洋海表温度仍高于平均值,截至717日一周澳大利亚北部和东南亚附近的大片海水比平均值高出超过1度。
SSTs in the western Pacific remain warmer than average, with large areas of water around northern Australia and South East Asia more than 1 °C warmer than average for the week ending 17 July.
比平均值高出1°C多的异常偏暖海表温度区域也延伸到印度洋东部大部分地方。同时,在印度洋海盆的西北部地区海水温度仍低于平均值,这与负相印度洋偶极子事件的经典模式相一致。
Warm SST anomalies in excess of 1 °C warmer than average also extend across much of the eastern Indian Ocean. Meanwhile, areas in the northwest of the Indian Ocean basin remain cooler than average, consistent with the classic pattern of a negative Indian Ocean Dipole (IOD) event.
               大前周  前周    上周     本周
NINO3      0.0°C  0.0°C  -0.2°C  -0.2°C
NINO3.4   -0.2°C -0.2°C -0.2°C -0.2°C
NINO4     +0.5°C  +0.4°C +0.5°C +0.5°C
20160719.ssta_pacific_weekly.png

每月海表温度
Monthly sea surface temperatures

远离赤道的热带太平洋中部和东部的部分地区20166月的海表温度比平均值偏高,这些地区的一些地方甚至比平均值高出1°C。赤道太平洋中部附近的海表温度异常偏冷的情况与五月相比加剧。
SSTs for June 2016 were warmer than average over parts of the tropical eastern and central Pacific away from the equator, with some of this area more than 1 °C warmer than average. Cool anomalies along the equator in the central Pacific have strengthened, when compared with May.
在印尼和澳大利亚之间的大部分地区海表温度比平均值高出1°C
SSTs were more than 1 °C warmer than average over most of the region between Australia and Indonesia.
在NINO3.4所在的中太平洋海区,六月值为0.0°C,比5月下降了0.4度也在上个月下降。NINO3和NINO4的海区,分别在东和西太平洋,测量值仍与5月相近。
In the NINO3.4 region in the central Pacific, the June value was 0.0 °C, which was 0.4 °C cooler than for May and followed a drop during the previous month too. The values for the NINO3 and NINO4 regions, in the eastern and western Pacific respectively, remained similar to May.
六月西印度洋海表温度变冷。中印度洋和东印度洋海表温度也变冷但一些地区的海表温度仍比平均值偏高1°C以上。
SSTs in the western Indian Ocean cooled during June. SSTs in the central and eastern Indian Ocean also cooled but remain more than 1 °C warmer than average in some areas.
          五月    六月
NINO3    +0.2°C  +0.1°C
NINO3.4 +0.4°C      0.0°C
NINO4    +0.6°C     +0.6°C[sub][/sub][sup][/sup]
20160719.ssta_pacific_monthly.png
5日次表层温度
5-day sub-surface temperatures

从截至717日的5日海表下温度图中显示赤道太平洋表层200米水温仍比平均值稍低。然而,相比两周前的异常偏低已经有所缓解(即水温已经越来越接近平均值)而且表层50米水温仍接近平均值。
[sub][/sub][sup][/sup]The subsurface temperature map for the 5 days ending 17 July shows temperatures remain slightly cooler than average across the top 200 m of the equatorial Pacific. However, compared to two weeks ago anomalies have lessened (i.e. temperatures have become closer to average) and temperatures in the top 50 m remain close to average.
在西经140度水深100米的一小块区域水温仍持续比平均值偏低3 °C
A small area of water more than 3 °C cooler than average persists at around 140°W and 100 m depth.[sub][/sub][sup][/sup]

20160719.tao_sub_surface.png
每月次表层温度
Monthly temperatures
四个月的海表下温度异常值排序图(至六月)显示异常偏冷区域横跨整个广阔的赤道太平洋,尽管六月西经160度以西的表层50米水温与平均值非常接近。每个月(三月至六月)中水温异常偏冷区域占据了整个或接近整个赤道海表以下,但在六月异常偏冷的空间范围比五月减少。
The fourmonth sequence of subsurface temperature anomalies (to June) shows cool anomalies span the entire width of the equatorial Pacific Ocean, although temperatures in top 50 m of water west of 160° W was mostly close to average in June. Cool anomalies have dominated all, or nearly all, of the equatorial subsurface since during each month (March to June), but June has seen the spatial extent of the cool anomalies decrease compared to May.[sub][/sub][sup][/sup]
20160719.sub_surface_anom.png

南方涛动指数
[sub][/sub][sup][/sup]Southern Oscillation Index

截至717日的最新30天南方涛动指数是正1.8,保持在中性范围。在过去一个月30天的南方涛动指数保持在中性范围。
The latest 30-day Southern Oscillation Index (SOI) to 17 July 2016 is +1.8, which is well within the neutral ENSO range. The 30-day SOI has remained within the neutral range during the past month.
持续大于+7的南方涛动指数通常表明厄尔尼诺现象的发生,持续小于-7的南方涛动指数通常表明拉尼娜现象的发生。位于7-7间表明中性状态。
Sustained positive values of the SOI above +7 typically indicate La Ni?a while sustained negative values below ?7 typically indicate El Ni?o. Values between about +7 and ?7 generally indicate neutral conditions.
soi30.png
信风
Trade winds
6月末至717日的5日信风资料显示赤道太平洋的信风仍然接近正常值。

Trade winds near the equator in the Pacific Ocean have remained close to normal for the 5 days ending 17 July, and since late June.
在拉尼娜期间,热带太平洋大部分海域的信风偏强,而厄尔尼诺时则偏弱。

During La Nia events, there is a sustained strengthening of the trade winds across much of the tropical Pacific, while during El Nio events there is a sustained weakening, or even reversal, of the trade winds
20160719.tao_sst_wind_anom_5day.png

日界线附近云量
Cloudiness near the Date Line
自五月初日界线附近云量已经接近平均值,暗示海洋和大气间发生的连接变化不大。
Cloudiness near the Date Line has been close to average since the beginning of May, suggesting little change in coupling has occurred between the ocean and atmosphere.
厄尔尼诺期间日界线附近云量通常增加(OLR负距平),拉尼娜期间通常减少(OLR正距平)。
Equatorial cloudiness near the Date Line typically increases during El Nio (below average OLR) and decreases during La Nia (above average OLR).
20160719.cloudiness.png


ENSO展望
ENSO outlooks
虽然所有模型表明热带太平洋可能会变冷,但八个被澳州气象局查看的气候模型中只有五个表明NINO3.4的值会向下至拉尼娜门槛以下。然而,各个模型对经过该门槛的时间意见不一,只有两个模型保持在南半球春季时仍为拉尼娜状态。
While all models indicate more cooling in the tropical Pacific Ocean is likely, only five of the eight of the international climate models surveyed by the Bureau indicate that NINO3.4 values will pass below the La Nia threshold. However, model outlooks vary in how long this threshold is met, with only two of the eight models maintaining a La Nia outlook throughout the southern hemisphere spring.
如果拉尼娜确实形成,模型认为这将会是微弱的,且强度远低于2010-12的重大拉尼娜事件。
If La Nia does form, models suggest it will be weak, and well below the strength of the significant 2010–12 event.
20160719.poama_nino34.png
印度洋偶极子展望

Indian Ocean Dipole outlooks
印度洋偶极子(IOD)仍为负值,当前在西北印度洋有异常偏冷的海表温度,在东部和中部印度洋海盆有异常偏暖的海表温度。7月17日数值为-1.30°C。
The Indian Ocean Dipole (IOD) remains negative, with cool SST anomalies present in the northwest of the Indian Ocean and warm anomalies over the eastern and central parts of the basin. The index value to 17 July was -1.30 °C
印度洋偶极子(IOD)指数八个星期以来一直低于-0.4°C的负相印度洋偶极子门槛。上周的指数值,-1.73 °C,是该指数至少在过去十五年来的最负值。
The Indian Ocean Dipole (IOD) index has been below the 0.4 °C negative IOD threshold for eight weeks. Last week’s index value, -1.37 °C, was the most negative value of the index in at least the past 15 years.
国际气候模型显示负相印度洋偶极子将在南半球冬季和春季一直持续。

International climate models indicate the negative IOD will persist over the southern winter and spring.
负相印度洋偶极子通常在冬春季期间给澳大利亚南部带来高于平均水平的降水和低于正常水平的昼温,以及给澳大利亚北部带来高于正常水平的昼温和夜温。
A negative IOD typically brings above average rainfall to southern Australia during winter–spring, cooler than normal daytime temperatures to southern Australia, and warmer daytime and night-time temperatures to northern Australia。
20160719.poama_iod.png




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