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[机构公布] 难捉摸的厄尔尼诺挑战NOAA2012美国冬季展望

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匿名  发表于 2012-10-20 09:08 |阅读模式
Elusive El Niño challenges NOAA’s 2012 U.S. Winter Outlook
难捉摸的厄尔尼诺挑战NOAA2012美国冬季展望
October 18, 2012
2012年10月18日
Outlook_map_temp_2b_300.jpg
Download here. (Credit: NOAA)

The western half of the continental U.S. and central and northern Alaska could be in for a warmer-than-average winter, while most of Florida might be colder-than-normal December through February, according to NOAA’s annual Winter Outlook announced today from the agency’s new Center for Weather and Climate Prediction in College Park, Md.
根据NOAA的每年冬季展望,该机构马里兰州大学园的天气和气候预测新中心今天公布,美国大陆西半部和中部以及阿拉斯加北部的冬季可能比冬季平均值温暖,而佛罗里达大部12月至2月可能比正常更冷。

Forecasters with NOAA’s Climate Prediction Center say a wavering El Niño, expected to have developed by now, makes this year’s winter outlook less certain than previous years.
NOAA气候预测中心的预测者说,正在游移的厄尔尼诺现象有望现在产生,使今年的冬季展望不如往年那么确定。

“This is one of the most challenging outlooks we’ve produced in recent years because El Niño decided not to show up as expected,” said Mike Halpert, deputy director of NOAA’s Climate Prediction Center. “In fact, it stalled out last month, leaving neutral conditions in place in the tropical Pacific.”
“这是近几年我们制作的最难展望之一,因为厄尔尼诺不如预期那么明显,”NOAA气候预测中心副主任 Mike Halpert,说。 “事实上,上个月发生在热带太平洋的条件就停滞于中性。”

When El Niño is present, warmer ocean water in the equatorial Pacific shifts the patterns of tropical rainfall that in turn influence the strength and position of the jetstream and storms over the Pacific Ocean and United States. This climate pattern gives seasonal forecasters confidence in how the U.S. winter will unfold. An El Niño watch remains in effect because there’s still a window for it to emerge.
当厄尔尼诺现象呈现时,赤道太平洋较暖的海水转移,热带降雨的模式又反过来影响急流及太平洋和美国风暴的强度和位置。这种气候模式为美国冬季将如何展开的季节性预报提供了信心。由于厄尔尼诺仍有它出现的空间,厄尔尼诺残余观察依然有意义。
Outlook_map_Precip_2b_3001.jpg
Download here. (Credit: NOAA)

Other climate factors can influence winter weather across the country. Some of these factors, such as the North Atlantic Oscillation, a prominent climate pattern, are difficult to predict more than one to two weeks in advance. The NAO adds uncertainty to the winter outlook in the Northeast and Mid-Atlantic portions of the country.
其他能影响全国各地冬季天气的气候因素。其中的一些因素,如北大西洋涛动,一个显著的气候模式,提前一到两个星期是很难预测的。北大西洋涛动(NAO)给国家东北部和中大西洋部位的冬季展望增加了不确定性。

Areas ravaged by extreme drought over the past year are unlikely to see much relief from drought conditions this winter.
在过去一年里受极端干旱摧残的地区,今年冬季大部的干旱状况未必有望缓解。

In the 2012 U.S. Winter Outlook (December through February) odds favor:
2012年美国冬季(十二月至二月)展望所支持的可能性:

•    Warmer-than-average temperatures in much of Texas, northward through the Central and Northern Plains and westward across the Southwest, the Northern Rockies, and eastern Washington, Oregon and California, as well as the northern two-thirds of Alaska.
•    德克萨斯州大部,向北穿过中部和北部平原,向西穿过西南部,北落基山脉和东部的华盛顿州,俄勒冈州和加利福尼亚州,以及阿拉斯加北部的三分之二都较平均温度温暖。
•    Cooler-than-average temperatures in Hawaii and in most of Florida, excluding the panhandle.
•    夏威夷和不包括狭长地带的佛罗里达州大部较平均温度冷。
•    Drier-than-average conditions in Hawaii, the Pacific Northwest and Northern California, including Idaho, western Montana, and portions of Wyoming, Utah and most of Nevada.
•    夏威夷、太平洋西北部和北加州包括爱达荷州、蒙大拿州的西部、怀俄明州的部分、犹他州和内华达州大部,干旱状况高于平均水平。
•    Drier-than-average conditions in the upper Midwest, including Minnesota, Wisconsin, Iowa and northern Missouri and eastern parts of North and South Dakota, Nebraska, Kansas, and western Illinois.
•    中西部上部包括明尼苏达州、威斯康星州、爱荷华州和密苏里州北部及南、北达科他州的东部地区,内布拉斯加州、堪萨斯州和伊利诺斯州西部的干旱状况高于平均水平。
•    Wetter-than-average conditions across the Gulf Coast states from the northern half of Florida to eastern Texas.
•    在整个墨西哥湾沿岸各州,从佛罗里达州的北半部到德克萨斯州东部,多雨状况高于平均水平。
The rest of the country falls into the “equal chance” category, meaning these areas have an equal chance for above-, near-, or below-normal temperatures and/or precipitation.
全国其他地方纳入“同等机会”,这意味着这些地区超过、接近或低于常温、降水方面有一个同等的机会。
This seasonal outlook does not project where and when snowstorms may hit or provide total seasonal snowfall accumulations. Snow forecasts are dependent upon the strength and track of winter storms, which are generally not predictable more than a week in advance.
当雪暴可能袭击或提供总季节性降雪量的积累时,此季节性的展望并不预测哪个地方。雪的预测依赖于冬季风暴的强度和轨迹,这通常是提前一个多星期都无法预测的。
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