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[机构公布] 联合台风警报中心(JTWC)“常见问题解答”翻译

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钻石勋章

发表于 2013-1-21 10:18 | 显示全部楼层 |阅读模式
Last updated 13 August 2012
20128月最新版


前言:

所询问的问题:
Whatis the difference between my local time and the time on JTWC's products?
请问我们大家所在地的时间和联合台风警报中心一些预测的产品上标注的时间有什么不一样吗?

Whatdo "Low", "Medium", and "High" mean on the ABIOand ABPW messages?
请问出现在联合台风警报中心的ABIOABPW两个产品中的“低”“中等”“高”这些信息是什么意思?

Whatis a "Tropical Cyclone Formation Alert (TCFA)"?
请问在联合台风警报中心中所发出的“热带气旋生成警报”是什么意思?

Whyare some TCFA areas shaped like a circle and others like a rectangle?
请问为什么联合台风警报中心发出的热带气旋生成警报会有时是圆形而有时是规形?

Whendoes JTWC initiate warnings on tropical disturbances?
请问联合台风警报中心是在什么时间点为热带扰动发出警报?

Howoften are warnings updated by JTWC?
请问联合台风警报中心每次发出警报的间隔是多久?

Whenare warnings available?
请问这些联合台风警报中心发出的警报在什么时候会实际发出?

Whatis the shaded area around the forecast track on your warning graphic?
请问联合台风警报中心的警报图中预测的路径四周的阴影部分有什么意义?

Whydoes JTWC use 34, 50, and 64-knot thresholds for wind radii criteria? Why are these thresholds differentfrom other agencies?
请问为什么联合台风警报中心用345064节作为风圈半径的临界节数?以及为什么这些临界(的标准)和其他的机构不同?

Whatdoes "DTG" mean in the Closest Point of Approach (CPA) box?
请问在联合台风警报中心中的CPA一框中的“DTG”是什么意思?

Whyare prognostic reasoning messages only available for the Western North Pacific?
请问为什么联合台风警报中心中的产品预兆推理信息只为发生在西北太平洋上的热带气旋而发出?

Whatis an "Amended" tropical cyclone warning?
请问什么是“被修改的”热带气旋警报?

Whatis a "Corrected" tropical cyclone warning?
请问什么是“被改正的”热带气旋警报?

Whatis a "Relocated" tropical cyclone warning?
请问什么是“被重新修改的”热带气旋警报?

Whatis the average size of a tropical cyclone?
请问什么是热带气旋的平均尺寸?

CanJTWC provide me historical data on tropical cyclones?
请问联合台风警报中心能够提供具有历史性热带气旋的信息吗?

CanI view JTWC forecast performance (statistics)?
请问我可以查看联合台风警报中心的预测的内容吗?(统计方面)

Whatis meant by a "climatological" rate of intensification or weakening?
请问什么是“气候”平均增长速度或减弱速度?

Howis tropical cyclone intensity determined?
请问热带气旋的强度是怎么得到确认的?

Whatare the description labels used with tropical cyclones by JTWC?
请问被联合台风警报中心使用来描述热带气旋的标签有哪些?

Howare tropical cyclones named?
请问联合台风警报中心是怎么为热带气旋命名的?

Howare JTWC forecasts different than forecasts issued by tropical cyclone warningcenters (TCWCs) of other countries?
请问为什么联合台风警报中心的预测不同于其余国家的热带气旋警报中心所发出的热带气旋的预测?

DoesJTWC have a subscription service to automatically send me warnings?
请问联合台风警报中心可以有一个为我能够自动发出热带气旋警报的订阅系统吗?

Whatnumerical models does JTWC use for track forecasting?

请问联合台风警报中心是用什么类型的大气模型作为参考而来预测热带气旋的路径?
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 楼主| 发表于 2013-1-21 10:19 | 显示全部楼层

正文

Q: What is the difference between my localtime and the time on JTWC\'s products?

请问我们大家所在地的时间和联合台风警报中心一些预测的产品上标注的时间有什么不一样吗?
A: The time referenced in all JTWCproducts is called Coordinated Universal Time (UTC). The <st1:country-region w:st=\"on\">U.S. militaryrefers to UTC time as \"Zulu\" (Z) time. The use of UTC time isstandard practice for most weather organizations as recommended by the WorldMeteorological Organization (WMO),.

所有联合台风警报中心所参考的时间都是“世界协调时”(UTC)。可是美国*军队所提到的协调世界时全部称作成ZULU时间。而把“协调世界时”作为警报右上方的时间标准做法是世界气象组织(WMO)提议的。




Q: What do \"Low\",\"Medium\", and \"High\" mean on the ABIO and ABPWmessages?

请问出现在联合台风警报中心的ABIOABPW两个产品中的“低”“中等”“高”这些信息是什么意思?
A: \"Low\" formation potentialdescribes a tropical disturbance that is being monitored for development, butis unlikely to develop into a significant tropical cyclone within the next 24hours.

当一个热带扰动有能力达到“”的形成率时,代表着这个扰动已经被我们所观察其的发展了。但在未来24小时内并没有很大的希望来发展成为一个重要的热带气旋
\"Medium\" formation potentialdescribes a tropical disturbance that is being monitored for development andhas an elevated potential to develop, but development of a significant tropicalcyclone will likely occur beyond 24 hours.

当一个热带扰动有能力达到“中等”的形成率时,代表着这个扰动已经被我们所观察其的发展并且形成率有所提高。但可能需要超过24小时才能发展成一个重要的热带气旋
\"High\" formation potentialdescribes an area that is being monitored for development and is eitherexpected to develop within 24 hours or development has already started, butwarning criteria have not yet been met. All areas designated as\"High\" will be accompanied by a Tropical Cyclone Formation Alert.


当一个热带系统地区有能力达到“”的形成率时,代表着这个地区已经被我们所观察其的发展。并且这个系统已经和预想中的一样在24小时内有所发展或者已经完成了初期的发展,但是想要在此时此刻发出警报还未达标。所有的系统发展率只要被认定为“高”后一定会伴随着发出“热带气旋形成预警”



Q: What is a \"Tropical Cyclone Formation Alert (TCFA)\"?

请问在联合台风警报中心中出现的“热带气旋生成警报”是什么意思?
A: A TCFA designates a disturbancethat is likely to become the subject of a JTWC tropical cyclone warning withinthe following 24 hour period. This information is provided to the DoD and other<st1:country-region w:st=\"on\">U.S.government agencies for operational planning.

一个热带气旋形成预警发出后就指明了一个扰动将在未来24小时这个时间段之间会使得联合台风警报中心为这个扰动发出热带气旋警报。这些信息也会被提供给美国国防部和其他美国政*府机构来提前操作和计划。



Q: Why are some TCFA areas shaped like a circle and others like a rectangle?

请问为什么联合台风警报中心的热带气旋生成警报这个产品中会有一块圆形或规形的地方?
A: Rectangular TCFA areas are issuedwhen a developing cyclone\'s speed and direction of motion can be predicted withrelatively high confidence. Circular TCFA areas are issued when a developingcyclone\'s speed and direction of motion is relatively difficult to predict orif the developing cyclone is nearly stationary.

当一个发展中的热带气旋的移动速度和移动方向能有较高的信心来确认时,矩形的“热带气旋形成预警”就会被我们发出。而当一个发展中的热带气旋的移动速度和移动方向难以确认或者是几乎停滞不动时,圆形的“热带气旋形成预警”就会被我们发出




Q: When does JTWC initiate warnings on tropical disturbances?

请问联合台风警报中心是在什么时间点为热带扰动发出警报?
A: JTWC initiates tropical cyclone warnings when one or more of thefollowing four criteria are met:
Estimated maximum sustained wind speedswithin a closed tropical circulation meet or exceed a designated threshold of25 knots in the North Pacific Ocean or 35 knots in the South Pacific and Indian Oceans.
Maximum sustained wind speeds within aclosed tropical circulation are expected to increase to 35 knots or greaterwithin 48 hours.
A tropical cyclone may endanger life and/orproperty within 72 hours.
USPACOM directs JTWC to begin tropicalcyclone warnings.

当这个热带扰动满足以下3标准中的至少一个或更多时,联合台风警报中心就会发布热带气旋警报
这个热带扰动的中心估计最大持续风速在北太平洋达到或超过25节,在南太平洋和印度洋达到超过35节时。
这个热带扰动的风速48小时内会增强至35或以上时。
一个热带气旋72小时内对人类生命以及财产安全造成威胁时。
满足这些后USPACOM就会指示联合台风警报中心开始发布热带气旋警报



Q: How often are warnings updated by JTWC?

请问联合台风警报中心每次发出警报的间隔是多久?
A: North Pacific and North Indian Oceantropical cyclone warnings are routinely updated every six hours. South Indianand South Pacific Ocean tropical cyclone warnings are routinely updatedevery twelve hours, although the frequency of tropical cyclone warning issuancein these areas can be increased to six-hourly when deemed necessary by JTWC.The REMARKS section of each warning bulletin lists the times when the nextwarnings are scheduled. When JTWC issues the final warning for a tropicalcyclone, no additional warnings are issued unless the cycloneregenerates.

联合台风警报中心对于北太平洋和印度洋发布的热带气旋警报6小时更新一次,对于南太平洋和南印度洋发布的热带气旋警报12小时更新一次。认为有必要时,部分热带气旋警报会被JTWC更新时间加快至6小时。每个警报都会有对应的“备注”,备注会告诉你下一份警报在什么时候被发出。当JTWC发出“最后警报”时就意味着直到下个热带气旋生成前都没有任何的热带气旋警报。




Q: When are warnings available?

请问这些联合台风警报中心发出的警报在什么时候会发出?
A: For tropical cyclones occurring in the western Pacific and Indian Oceans,JTWC products are transmitted no later than 3 hours past the synoptic hour.Because the synoptic hours are 00Z, 06Z, 12Z, and 18Z, warnings will beavailable by 03Z, 09Z, 15Z, or 21Z. For the eastern NorthPacific Ocean, JTWC products are transmitted no later than 4 hoursafter the synoptic hour (04Z, 10Z, 16Z, or 22Z).

联合台风警报中心对于旋转在西北太平洋和印度洋上的热带气旋,JTWC的预报产品会在天气图中显示的时刻后的3小时内发出。因为天气图的时刻为0时(UTC),6时(UTC),12时(UTC),18时(UTC所以热带气旋警报发出的时间为3时(UTC),9时(UTC),15时(UTC)和21时(UTC。对于旋转在北太平洋东部的热带气旋,会在天气图时刻后的4小时内发出。(4时,10时,16时和22



Q: What is the shaded area around the forecast track on your warning graphic?

请问联合台风警报中心的警报图中预测的路径四周的阴影部分有什么意义?
A: The shaded area around the forecast track is called the \"area ofuncertainty.\" The area of uncertainty is calculated by adding the JTWC5-year running mean forecast track error to the forecast 34 knot wind radii ateach forecast time. Since JTWC does not forecast wind radii for the 96- and120-hour forecast times, the area of uncertainty is calculated by adding the72-hour 34 knot radii to the forecast track error at those times. Thus, theshading highlights the area that may be effected by wind speeds exceeding 34knots for a given JTWC forecast, based on historical track forecast errors.However, this calculation does NOT account for uncertainty in the trackforecast based on the spread of the numerical model spread or other forecastguidance at a particular forecast time.


联合台风警报中心对于这个热带气旋的预测路径上阴影区域叫做“风圈不确定性区域”。这个区域是在JTWC5年内的对每一个热带气旋的34节风圈半径的误差上计算出来的。自从JTWC不在第96120小时的预报时刻上标记34节风圈,这个路径就由72小时的34节风圈上计算出来。因此,预测图中阴影的部分会吹起超过34节的风。这个预测是在过往的预测误差上得出的。然而,这个计算结果不是由其他气象预报中所给出的路径与JTWC所给出的不确定性区域相比的误差所得。




Q: Why does JTWC use 34, 50, and 64-knot thresholds for wind radii criteria?Why are these thresholds different from other agencies?

请问为什么联合台风警报中心用345064节作为风圈半径的临界节数?以及为什么这些临界的标准和其他的机构不同?
A: <st1:country-region w:st=\"on\">U.S.tropical cyclone directives require tropical cyclone wind radii to be reportedat those thresholds.

这是美国对于热带气旋方面官方指令要求联合台风警报中心依照这个值来预测热带气旋的风圈半径。




Q: What does \"DTG\" mean in the Closest Point of Approach (CPA) box?

请问在联合台风警报中心中的CPA一框中的“DTG”是什么意思?
A: DTG stands for Date Time Group. It indicates the date and time thetropical cyclone will be closest to the specified location.

DTG代表日期时间小组。它会表示出最接近热带气旋警报发出时间所对应的热带气旋活动时间与方位。




Q: Why are prognostic reasoning messages only available for the western NorthPacific?

请问为什么联合台风警报中心中的产品预兆推理信息只适用于西北太平洋?
A: Per JTWC directive, prognostic reasoning messages are only required forthe western North Pacific, where there are increased U.S. Government assetconcerns. Detailed tropical cyclone analysis and forecast discussions are includedin the remarks section of warning text messages for tropical cyclones thatoccur in the Indian Ocean and South Pacific Ocean.

根据联合台风警报中心的指令,其所发布“预兆推理信息”只需要分析发生在西北太平洋上的热带气旋。而发生在印度洋或南太平洋上的热带气旋在警报中的“备注”中已经包含了对于此热带气旋的分析和预测结果




Q: What is an \"Amended\" tropical cyclone warning?

请问什么是“被修改的”热带气旋警报?
A: JTWC issues an amended warning whenever a significant change is made tothe forecast track, intensity, and/or tropical cyclone best track positionbefore the next regular warning is issued. The reason for the amendment isstated in the REMARKS section of the amended warning.

联合台风警报中心一般认为如果之前中心对于此热带气旋的所预测路径、强度在目前看来不是很适用于这个热带气旋的实际走向或实际发展,则联合台风警报中心会发布一个“被修改的”热带气旋警报。在修改后一般会在“备注”中写明修改警报的原因




Q: What is a \"Corrected\" tropical cyclone warning?

请问什么是“被改正的”热带气旋警报?
A: JTWC issues a corrected warning when administrative or typographicalerrors are noted in the current warning.

这是联合台风警报中心用来纠正目前警报错误的一种方式,一般是因为工作人员的大意或者报文混淆时会发出。




Q: What is a \"Relocated\" tropical cyclone warning?

请问什么是“被重新修改的”热带气旋警报?
A: JTWC issues a relocated warning to indicate a significant re-assessmentof the tropical cyclone\'s location and movement. The term \"relocated\"is used when a vector drawn from the previous warning position to the currentwarning position does not reasonably represent the actual cyclone\'smovement.

联合台风警报中心一般认为如果之前中心对于此热带气旋的所预测路径、强度在目前看来完全不适用目前这个热带气旋的实际走向或实际发展,需要重新评估未来热带气旋的动向。则联合台风警报中心会发布一个“被重新修改的”热带气旋警报。使用时一般是一个
矢量图出错没有反应实际气旋的活动走向。



Q: What is the average size of a tropical cyclone?

请问什么是热带气旋的平均尺寸?
A: There is no \"average\" tropical cyclone. Tropical cyclones aremeasured radially from the center to the outermost closed isobar. Thisdistance, in degrees latitude, determines the system\'s relative size (see tablebelow)

实际上没有正正好好达到平均尺寸的热带气旋。热带气旋的大小一般以从中心到外层的封闭的等压线来决定的。这个距离统计是以纬度作为衡量单位,这样决定了系统的相对大小(具体见下表)

半径

尺寸

例子

< 2 °

非常小/微型

热带气旋Tracy (1994)

2 - 3 °



3 - 6 °

中等


6 - 8 °



> 8 °

非常巨大

超级台风Tip(1979)



Q: Can JTWC provide me historical data on tropical cyclones?

请问联合台风警报中心能够提供具有历史性热带气旋的信息吗?
A: JTWC provides two areas of information for historical purposes.Historical tropical cyclone tracks are available from the TropicalCyclone Best Track page.  Tropical cyclone narratives are availablefrom the AnnualTropical Cyclone Report (ATCR).

联合台风警报中心拥有两块区域可供查询热带气旋的历史信息。(一)、历史热带气旋的最佳路径,详见请点击TropicalCyclone Best Track page。其余关于热带气旋的描述方面,详见请点击AnnualTropical Cyclone Report (ATCR)



Q: Can I view JTWC forecast performance (statistics)?

请问我可以查看联合台风警报中心的预测的内容吗?(统计方面)
A: Forecast performance is calculated following a thorough post-stormreview of all available data. Statistical information is available in theATCR.

任何对于过去的风暴所预测的内容和统计都可详见Annual Tropical Cyclone Report (ATCR)




Q: What is meant by a \"climatological\" rate of intensification orweakening?

请问什么是气候平均增长速度或减弱速度?
A: A climatological rate is defined as one Dvorak T-number per 24 hourperiod. See the following question and answer for more information on theDvorak scale and its relationship to intensity.

气候平均值被定义为每24小时所分析T值的增加与减少,详见下面的问题以及更多信息,特别是关于德沃夏克分析法中的强度关系。




Q: How is tropical cyclone intensity determined?

请问热带气旋的强度是怎么得到确认的?
A: JTWC uses several tools and techniques to estimate tropical cycloneintensity, including subjective Dvorak estimates, objective fix data, andobservations. Over most of the JTWC AOR, the Dvorak technique is the primarymeans to estimate tropical cyclone intensity. The Dvorak technique is based onthe analysis of cloud patterns in visible and infrared imagery fromgeostationary and polar-orbiting satellites. The Dvorak technique results in adecimal number, called a T-number, which in turn corresponds to an intensityestimate.

联合台风警报中心目前用来确定热带气旋强度的技术一般是使用德沃夏克分析法的主观分析。目前,德沃夏克分析法是联合台风警报中心评估热带气旋强度的主要方法。德沃夏克分析是基于运用可见光或红外图像所呈现系统云系来评估强弱的一种分析。德沃夏克分析法的T值是一种十进制的数,其相应的值就是相应评估的风速。

T

对应的强度评估(kt)

1.0

25

1.5

25

2.0

30

2.5

35

3.0

45

3.5

55

4.0

65

4.5

77

5.0

90

5.5

102

6.0

115

6.5

127

7.0

140

7.5

155

8.0

170



Q: What are the description labels usedwith tropical cyclones by JTWC?

请问被联合台风警报中心使用来描述热带气旋的名称有哪些?
A: In the North Pacific Ocean, a tropical cyclone with an estimatedintensity of less than 34 knots is designated a \"Tropical Depression\"and a tropical cyclone with an estimated intensity between 34 and 63 knots isdesignated a \"Tropical Storm.\" Within the eastern and central NorthPacific, a tropical cyclone with an estimate intensity of 64 knots or greateris called a \"Hurricane.\" Within the western North Pacific, however, atropical cyclone with an estimated intensity between 64 and 129 knots is calleda \"Typhoon,\" while a tropical cyclone of 130 knots or greater isdesignated a \"Super Typhoon.\" In the IndianOcean and South Pacific, JTWC labels ALL tropical cyclones as\"Tropical Cyclone,\" regardless of estimated intensity.

在北太平洋,若一热带气旋强度小于34,则被认定为“热带低压”,强度在34~63之间的则认定为“热带风暴”。在东北太平洋强度为64节以上的热带气旋被认定为“飓风”,而在西北太平洋强度在64~129之间则认定为“台风”,而强度为130节及以上,则被认定为“超级台风”。而在印度洋或南太平洋,无论强度高低,都被称为“热带气旋”



Q: How are tropical cyclones named?

请问联合台风警报中心是怎么为热带气旋命名的?
A: JTWC does not name tropical cyclones. JTWC uses the names determined bythe World Meteorological Organization (WMO) Tropical Cyclone Program. JTWC willadd the tropical cyclone name in parentheses after the JTWC-designated tropicalcyclone number only after the WMO-designatedRegional SpecializedMeteorological Center(RSMC) or Tropical Cyclone Warning Center (TCWC) names a cyclone. If theRSMC/TCWC has not yet named a cyclone, JTWC uses its TC number, spelled out, asa placeholder, i.e. \"TS 16P (SIXTEEN).\"

联合台风警报中心不为热带气旋拟名,联合台风警报中心所使用的名称是由世界气象组织提供的热带气旋计划。联合台风警报中心在热带气旋名称后会增写热带气旋的序号。而名称来源于区域专业气象中心。若RSMC/TCWC不命名此热带气旋,那么联合台风警报中心就会使用序号来填写来为此热带气旋占一个空间,如“TS  16PSIXTEEN)”



Q: How are JTWC forecasts different than forecasts issued by tropical cyclonewarning centers (TCWCs) of other countries?

请问为什么联合台风警报中心的预测不同于其余国家的热带气旋警报中心所发出的热带气旋的预测?
A: JTWC and RSMC/TCWC tropical cyclone warnings may differ for severalreasons. One difference is the measurement of maximum sustained surface winds.JTWC reports the maximum sustained surface winds in tropical disturbances andcyclones in terms of 1-minute mean wind speed, as required by the U.S. NationalHurricane Operations Plan. Other nations, however, report maximum sustainedsurface winds averaged over a different time interval, which in many cases is10-minutes. The difference generally means that JTWC will report higher maximumsustained surface wind speeds than non-U.S tropical cyclone forecasting centersfor the same cyclone. Another difference is that JTWC will issue forecasts outto 120 hours as required by U.S. DoD. Several TCWCs will transmit forecaststhat extend to a period less than 120 hours.  Finally, JTWC does not applythe same tropical cyclone numbering scheme used by the regional centers. Hence,the cyclone number assigned by JTWC may not match the numerical designationassigned to the same cyclone by the responsible RSMC/TCWC.

联合台风警报中心和RSMC/TCWC对于各自发出的热带气旋警报有以下几点不同:(一)最高持续风速。联合台风警报中心采用的评估热带气旋和热带扰动的风速是由美国国家飓风行动计划提供的一分钟平均风速。然而,其余国家的气象台会有不同的时间。大多数情况下是10分钟平均风速。换句话说就是联合台风警报中心对于热带气旋的评估风速要比其余非美国的热带气旋预报中心所给予的风速都要高。(二)联合台风警报中心所预报的时间最长是120小时,其余几个TCWC机构预测时间均少于120小时。最后,联合台风警报中心并没有采用后者TCWC机构的做法。因此,联合台风警报中心对于此热带气旋的数值分析也会不同于其余RSMC/TCWC机构。




Q: Does JTWC have a subscription service to automatically send me warnings?

请问联合台风警报中心可以有一个为我能够自动发出热带气旋警报的订阅系统吗?
A: No, JTWC does not offer a subscription-based service.

对不起,我想没有,联合台风警报中心没有这样能够自动发出热带气旋警报的订阅系统。




Q: What numerical models does JTWC use fortrack forecasting?

请问联合台风警报中心是用什么类型的大气模型作为参考而来预测热带气旋的路径?
A: The current numerical modelconsensus track forecast used at JTWC, called CONW, is composed of sixbaroclinic dynamical models and one barotropic model. The baroclinic modelsproviding track forecasts included in the consensus are: NOGAPS, GFDN, GFS,JGSM, UKMET, and ECMWF. The sole barotropic track model is the Weber BarotropicModel (WBAR). In order to be considered for the consensus, a model must beconsistently available, demonstrate sufficient forecast skill, and add value tothe consensus. Models are normally evaluated for one to two years before beingincluded in the consensus. Models that fail to meet these criteria are eithernot accepted or removed from consensus.

目前联合台风警报中心所运用的数值模型被称为CONW,这是由有六个斜压动力模型和一个正压动力模型组成。斜压模型提供未来移动轨迹的预测,是斜压模型的有:NOGAPS GFDNGFSJGSMUKMETECMWF,唯一一个正压动力模型是WBAR。模型中所采取的必须是要预测一致的,内容有价值的信息。模型一般一到两年评估一次,不符合的则不接受此类大气模型。
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发表于 2013-1-21 14:55 | 显示全部楼层
The U.S. militaryrefers to UTC time as \"Zulu\" (Z) time.
美国`军方将UTC时间称作Zulu时间(用1200z的形式表示)
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发表于 2013-1-21 15:12 | 显示全部楼层
超强台风?不是都翻译超级台风?
Meow, a sex-starved pussy, gets aroused when everyone at the pool stares at her white and soaked up swimsuit turning see-through and exposing her tempting body.
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