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西太/北印各类图像自动更新暨非扰动云团专帖(2019年)

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发表于 2019-4-14 20:05 | 显示全部楼层
gfs_mslp_wind_wpac_fh144-360.gif
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发表于 2019-4-15 14:11 | 显示全部楼层
苏门答腊岛西侧的北印度洋似乎有个热带系统正在发展
QQ图片20190415141127.png

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我知道我很笨,很没用,可是,我白天拼命练习法术,我很努力!夜晚…发奋提高知识,然后每天……到拼抢散派任务,这么多的努力和汗水,都是为了能和姐姐们一样,成为一个堂堂正正的狐妖!
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发表于 2019-4-22 03:37 | 显示全部楼层
gfs_mslp_uv850_india_37.png
ecmwf_mslp_uv850_india_6.png
ecmwf_mslp_uv850_india_11.png
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ghj说不抢帖会后悔半个月,咕咕咕

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发表于 2019-4-22 22:01 | 显示全部楼层
REGIONAL SPECIALISED METEOROLOGICAL CENTRE-TROPICAL CYCLONES, NEW DELHI
TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
DEMS-RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONES NEW DELHI DATED 22.04.2019
TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK FOR NORTH INDIAN OCEAN (THE BAY OF BENGAL AND ARABIAN
SEA) VALID FOR NEXT 120 HOURS ISSUED AT 0600 UTC OF 22.04.2019 BASED ON 0300 UTC OF
22.04.2019.
BAY OF BENGAL:
A LOW PRESSURE AREA IS LIKELY TO DEVELOP OVER EQUATORIAL INDIAN OCEAN AND
ADJOINING SOUTHWEST BAY OF BENGAL TO THE SOUTHEAST OF SRI LANKA AROUND
26 TH APRIL. IT IS LIKELY TO INTENSIFY INTO A DEPRESSION DURING SUBSEQUENT 24
HOURS.

AS PER SATELLITE IMAGERY, SCATTERED LOW AND MEDIUM CLOUDS WITH EMBEDDED
MODERATE TO INTENSE CONVECTION LIE OVER SOUTHCENTRAL BAY OF BENGAL AND
WEAK TO MODERATE CONVECTION LIE OVER NORTH BAY OF BENGAL.
PROBABILITY OF CYCLOGENESIS DURING NEXT 120 HRS:
24 HOURS  24-48 HOURS  48-72 HOURS  72-96 HOURS  96-120 HOURS
NIL              NIL                   NIL                    NIL                   LOW
[strike]ARABIAN SEA:[/strike]
[strike]ISOLATED LOW AND MEDIUM CLOUDS WITH EMBEDDED INTENSE TO VERY INTENSE[/strike]
[strike]CONVECTION LIE OVER EXTREME SOUTHEAST ARABIAN SEA AND WEAK CONVECTION LIE[/strike]
[strike]OVER REST OF SOUTH ARABIAN SEA.[/strike]
[strike]PROBABILITY OF CYCLOGENESIS DURING NEXT 120 HRS:[/strike]
[strike]24 HOURS  24-48 HOURS  48-72 HOURS  72-96 HOURS  96-120 HOURS[/strike]
[strike]NIL              NIL                   NIL                    NIL                   NIL[/strike]

REMARKS:
MANY NUMERICAL MODELS INCLUDING ECMWF, GLOBAL ENSEMBLE FORECAST SYSTEM
(GEFS), IMD GFS AND NCEP GFS SUGGEST FORMATION OF LOW PRESSURE AREA
AROUND 26 TH OVER EQUATORIAL INDIAN OCEAN AND ADJOINING SOUTHWEST BOB. THESE
MODELS ARE ALSO SUGGESTING FURTHER INTENSIFICATION OF THE SYSTEM. HOWEVER,
THERE IS DIVERGENCE W.R.T. DIRECTION OF MOVEMENT. ECMWF & IMD GFS ARE
INDICATING MOVEMENT TOWARDS NORTH-T A M ILNADU COAST ACROSS NORTHEAST
COAST  OF  SRILANKA.  GFS  GROUP  OF  MODELS  ARE  INDICATING  INITIAL
NORTHWESTWARDS MOVEMENT FOLLOWED BY SUBSEQUENT RECURVATURE OF THE
SYSTEM TOWARDS EASTCENTRAL BOB.
THE MADDEN JULIAN OSCILLATION (MJO) INDEX IS CURRENTLY IN PHASE 2 WITH
AMPLITUDE MORE THAN 1. IT WILL CONTINUE IN SAME PHASE WITH AMPLITUDE MORE
THAN 1 FOR NEXT 2 DAYS. THEREAFTER IT WILL MOVE TO PHASE 3 WITH AMPLITUDE
REMAINING MORE THAN 1 FOR SUBSEQUENT 4 DAYS. HENCE, MJO PHASE WILL BE
FAVOURABLE FOR ENHANCEMENT OF CONVECTION & CYCLOGENESIS OVER BAY OF
BENGAL REGION. CONSIDERING THE ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS, THE SEA SURFACE
TEMPERATURE (SST) IS ABOUT 30?C OVER SOUTHWEST BOB AND ADJOINING EQUATORIAL
INDIAN OCEAN (EIO) AND COMORIN AREAS. THE TROPICAL CYCLONE HEAT POTENTIAL IS
AROUND 80-90 KJ/CM2 OVER THE ABOVE REGION. AN AREA OF POSITIVE VORTICITY
AROUND 25 X10 -6 SEC -1 LIES OVER EIO AND ADJOINING PARTS OF SOUTHWEST BOB. A
NORTH-SOUTH ORIENTED ZONE OF POSITIVE DIVERGENCE AROUND 20 X10 -5 SEC -1  LIES
OVER THE REGION. A CIRCULAR ZONE OF POSITIVE CONVERGENCE AROUND 10 X10 -5 SEC -1
LIES OVER THE REGION. VERTICAL WIND SHEAR IS MODERATE (10-15 KT) OVER
EQUATORIAL INDIAN OCEAN & ADJOINING SOUTHWEST BOB & COMORIN. THE UPPER
TROPOSPHERIC RIDGE LIES NEAR 9 0 N.
CONSIDERING ALL THE ABOVE A LOW PRESSURE AREA IS LIKELY TO DEVELOP OVER
EQUATORIAL INDIAN OCEAN AND ADJOINING SOUTHWEST BAY OF BENGAL TO THE
SOUTHEAST OF SRI LANKA AROUND 26TH. IT IS LIKELY TO INTENSIFY FURTHER INTO A
DEPRESSION DURING SUBSEQUENT 24 HOURS. IT IS LIKELY TO MOVE NORTHWESTWARDS
TOWARDS T A M IL NADU COAST ACROSS EAST SRI LANKA COAST. rsmc.jpg
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有贴自远方来,不亦抢乎?

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发表于 2019-4-23 21:17 | 显示全部楼层
WTIN20 DEMS 230645

TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK

DEMS-RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONES NEW DELHI DATED 23.04.2019

TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK FOR NORTH INDIAN OCEAN (THE BAY OF BENGAL
AND ARABIAN SEA) VALID FOR NEXT 120 HOURS ISSUED AT 0600 UTC OF
23.04.2019 BASED ON 0300 UTC OF 23.04.2019.



BAY OF BENGAL:

A LOW PRESSURE AREA IS LIKELY TO DEVELOP OVER EQUATORIAL INDIAN
OCEAN (EIO) AND ADJOINING SOUTHWEST BAY OF BENGAL (BOB) TO THE
SOUTHEAST OF SRI LANKA AROUND 25TH APRIL. IT IS VERY LIKELY TO
INTENSIFY INTO A DEPRESSION DURING SUBSEQUENT 36 HOURS. IT IS
VERY LIKELY TO MOVE NORTHWESTWARDS TOWARDS TAMILNADU COAST ACROSS
EAST COAST OF SRI LANKA AND INTENSIFY FURTHER INTO A CYCLONIC STORM
DURING SUBSEQUENT 48 HRS.



AS PER SATELLITE IMAGERY, SCATTERED LOW AND MEDIUM CLOUDS WITH
EMBEDDED MODERATE TO INTENSE CONVECTION LAY OVER SOUTH BOB, SOUTH
OF LATITUDE 100N AND SOUTH ANDAMAN SEA.



PROBABILITY OF CYCLOGENESIS DURING NEXT 120 HRS:



0-24 HOURS


24-48 HOURS


48-72 HOURS


72-96 HOURS


96-120 HOURS

NIL


NIL


LOW


HIGH


HIGH



ARABIAN SEA:



SCATTERED LOW AND MEDIUM CLOUDS WITH EMBEDDED MODERATE TO INTENSE
CONVECTION LAY OVER COMORIN AND NEIGHBOURHOOD.



PROBABILITY OF CYCLOGENESIS DURING NEXT 120 HRS:



0-24 HOURS


24-48 HOURS


48-72 HOURS


72-96 HOURS


96-120 HOURS

NIL


NIL


NIL


NIL


NIL



REMARKS:



MANY NUMERICAL MODELS INCLUDING ECMWF, GLOBAL ENSEMBLE FORECAST
SYSTEM (GEFS), IMD GFS AND NCEP GFS SUGGEST FORMATION OF LOW
PRESSURE AREA  AROUND 25TH OVER EQUATORIAL INDIAN OCEAN AND
ADJOINING SOUTHWEST BOB TO THE SOUTHEAST OF SRILANKA COAST.
THESE MODELS ARE ALSO SUGGESTING FURTHER INTENSIFICATION OF THE
SYSTEM. ALL THESE MODELS ARE INDICATING NORTHWESTWARDS MOVEMENT
TOWARDS TAMILNADU COAST TILL 30TH AND RECURVATURE THEREAFTER.
HOWEVER, ECMWF IS ALSO INDICATING THE SYSTEM TO CROSS TAMILNADU
COAST AROUND AROUND 30TH.



THE MADDEN JULIAN OSCILLATION (MJO) INDEX IS CURRENTLY IN PHASE 2
WITH AMPLITUDE MORE THAN 1. IT WILL CONTINUE IN SAME PHASE WITH
AMPLITUDE MORE THAN 1 FOR NEXT 1 DAY ALSO. THEREAFTER, IT WILL MOVE
TO PHASE 3 WITH AMPLITUDE REMAINING MORE THAN 1 FOR SUBSEQUENT
3 DAYS. THEREAFTER IT WILL MOVE TO PHASE-4 WITH AMPLITUDE REMINING
MORE THAN 1 FOR NEXT 3 DAYS. HENCE, MJO PHASE WILL BE FAVOURABLE
FOR ENHANCEMENT OF CONVECTION & CYCLOGENESIS OVER BAY OF BENGAL
REGION. CONSIDERING THE ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS, THE SEA SURFACE
TEMPERATURE (SST) IS ABOUT 30\\U02DAC OVER SOUTHWEST BOB AND
ADJOINING EQUATORIAL INDIAN OCEAN (EIO). THE TROPICAL CYCLONE
HEAT POTENTIAL IS AROUND 80-90 KJ/CM2 OVER THE ABOVE REGION.
HOWEVER, IT IS DECREASING BECOMING 40-60 KJ/CM2 OVER SOUTHWEST
BOB OFF TAMILNADU/ANDHRA PRADESH COASTS. REGION OF POSITIVE
VORTICITY AROUND 25 X10-6SEC-1 LIES OVER EIO AND ADJOINING PARTS
OF SOUTHWEST BOB WITH VERTICAL EXTENSION UPTP 500 HPA LEVEL. A
NORTH-SOUTH ORIENTED ZONE OF POSITIVE DIVERGENCE AROUND
5 X10-5SEC-1 LIES OVER THE REGION. A ZONE OF POSITIVE CONVERGENCE
AROUND 10 X10-5SEC-1 LIES OVER THE EIO AND ADJOINING SOUTHEAST BOB.
VERTICAL WIND SHEAR IS MODERATE (15-20 KT) OVER EQUATORIAL INDIAN
OCEAN & ADJOINING SOUTHWEST BOB. THE UPPER TROPOSPHERIC RIDGE
LIES NEAR 50N.



CONSIDERING ALL THE ABOVE A LOW PRESSURE AREA IS LIKELY TO DEVELOP
OVER EIO AND ADJOINING SOUTHWEST BOB TO THE SOUTHEAST OF SRI LANKA
AROUND 25TH APRIL. IT IS VERY LIKELY TO INTENSIFY INTO A
DEPRESSION DURING SUBSEQUENT 36 HOURS. IT IS VERY LIKELY TO
MOVE NORTHWESTWARDS TOWARDS TAMILNADU COAST ACROSS EAST COAST
OF SRI LANKA AND INTENSIFY FURTHER INTO A CYCLONIC STORM DURING
SUBSEQUENT 48 HRS.
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发表于 2019-4-24 01:23 | 显示全部楼层
gfs_mslp_wind_wpac_53.png
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发表于 2019-4-29 01:16 | 显示全部楼层
gfs_mslp_wind_wpac_19.png
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发表于 2019-4-29 14:18 | 显示全部楼层
5月上中旬南海和西太有台风生成的几率不大。
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发表于 2019-4-29 15:00 | 显示全部楼层
令和第一台风?
102.track.png
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发表于 2019-4-30 22:22 | 显示全部楼层
日本气象厅发布平成年代最后一张天气图,平成年代台风以Winona开始、以Wutip结束
各大数值已经逐渐开始展望令和第一台风
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