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中东太/北大各类图像自动更新暨非扰动云团专帖(2019年)

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4119

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台风

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4119
发表于 2018-12-30 14:24 | 显示全部楼层 |阅读模式
本帖最后由 红豆棒冰冰 于 2019-6-28 13:51 编辑

1、为了方便管理和页面整洁、台风论坛继续坚持一扰动一追击帖的老规矩,在本帖所涉及海区无扰动下请在本帖跟帖讨论。不遵守者:删除或合并。     

2、当NRL升格扰动后,会员可重新开新的追击。     

3、因EC网站更新,本帖无法提供即时更新的EC预报产品,请前往各数值产品服务网站查询。1楼提供EC网站查询部分常用产品的方法。


北大西洋扰动位置直观图



东北太平洋及中太平洋扰动位置直观图




NHC热带系统监测图

北大西洋

2天内气旋形成机率





5天内气旋形成机率




东北太平洋

2天内气旋形成


5天内气旋形成机率



CPHC热带系统监测图

中北太平洋

2天内气旋形成


5天内气旋形成机率


涡度图


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发表于 2019-1-4 02:24 | 显示全部楼层
NHC于1605 UTC Thu Jan 3 2019发布的Tropical Weather Discussion:
A cold-core upper low will continue digging southward into the
base of a mid/upper level trough along about 135W overnight
through Fri. This support a weak low pressure along the ITCZ
between 120W and 135W. The resultant tightened pressure gradient
will enhance trade winds north of the ITCZ and west of 120W,
with near gale conditions possible developing north of the
surface trough and low to near 16N. Active convection will
prevail north of the ITCZ across this area today through Thu
night. This low pressure center and associated moisture will
move northward through Fri and then weaken quickly as it veers
northeastward, and affect Baja California Sur and the adjacent
waters with fresh SW winds and occasional showers through the
weekend.
ecmwf_mslp_uv850_epac_3.png
gfs_mslp_uv850_epac_5.png

当前该系统涡度泛白,所处位置风切比周围低,海温勉强
wg9vor.GIF
风切.gif
cdas-sflux_sst_epac_1.png
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发表于 2019-1-4 04:39 | 显示全部楼层

NHC:30%/50%

NHC于1605 UTC Thu Jan 3 2019发布的Tropical Weather Discussion:
A cold-core upper low will continue digging southward into t...
ZCZC MIATWOEP ALL
TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM

Special Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1215 PM PST Thu Jan 3 2019

For the eastern North Pacific...east of 140 degrees west longitude:

1. A large area of disturbed weather associated with a broad area of
low pressure has formed about 1300 miles southwest of the southern
tip of the Baja California peninsula. The low is forecast to move
slowly northward over the next few days and could acquire some
tropical or subtropical characteristics during that time.
Environmental conditions are expected to become unfavorable for
further development by early next week. Regardless of tropical or
subtropical cyclone development, the low will likely produce
gale-force winds over the weekend. Additional information on this
system can be found in High Seas Forecasts issued by the National
Weather Service. The next Special Tropical Weather Outlook on this
system will be issued by 11 AM PST Friday, or earlier, if necessary.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...30 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...medium...50 percent.

High Seas Forecasts are issued by the National Weather Service
under AWIPS header NFDHSFEPI, WMO header FZPN02 KWBC, and are
available on the web at
https://ocean.weather.gov/shtml/NFDHSFEPI.shtml.

Forecaster Zelinsky
two_pac_2d0.png
two_pac_2d1.png
two_pac_5d0.png
two_pac_5d1.png
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39

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466

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1207

积分

强热带风暴

Dorian 160Kt 实测911hPa

积分
1207
发表于 2019-1-5 06:25 | 显示全部楼层
<pre style=\"caret-color: rgb(0, 0, 0); color: rgb(0, 0, 0); font-size: 14px; font-style: normal; font-variant-caps: normal; font-weight: normal; letter-spacing: normal; orphans: auto; text-align: start; text-indent: 0px; text-transform: none; widows: auto; word-spacing: 0px; -webkit-tap-highlight-color: rgba(26, 26, 26, 0.301961); -webkit-text-size-adjust: auto; -webkit-text-stroke-width: 0px; background-color: rgb(252, 252, 252); text-decoration: none;\">ZCZC MIATWOEP ALL
TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM

Special Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1040 AM PST Fri Jan 4 2019

For the eastern North Pacific...east of 140 degrees west longitude:

1. Shower activity associated with a broad low pressure system centered
about 1200 miles southwest of the southern tip of the Baja
California peninsula has become a little better organized since
yesterday. Some slight additional tropical or subtropical
development is possible overnight and early Saturday while the low
drifts slowly northward, but environmental conditions are expected
to become unfavorable for further development by Saturday afternoon.
Regardless of tropical or subtropical cyclone development, winds
near gale-force associated with the low are possible over the
weekend. Additional information on this system can be found in High
Seas Forecasts issued by the National Weather Service. The next
Special Tropical Weather Outlook on this system will be issued by 11
AM PST Saturday, or earlier, if necessary.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...30 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...low...30 percent.


High Seas Forecasts are issued by the National Weather Service
under AWIPS header NFDHSFEPI, WMO header FZPN02 KWBC, and are
available on the web at
Forecaster Zelinsky</pre>
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39

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1207

积分

强热带风暴

Dorian 160Kt 实测911hPa

积分
1207
发表于 2019-1-5 10:08 | 显示全部楼层
gfs_mslp_pcpn_frzn_us_fh6-90.gif
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发表于 2019-1-6 01:04 | 显示全部楼层

NHC:0%/0%

ZCZC MIATWOEP ALL
TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM

Special Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
740 AM PST Sat Jan 5 2019

For the eastern North Pacific...east of 140 degrees west longitude:

1. Shower activity associated with a broad low pressure system centered
about 1100 miles west-southwest of the southern tip of the Baja
California peninsula has become less organized since yesterday.
Environmental conditions have become unfavorable and tropical or
subtropical cyclone development is not anticipated. Additional
information on this system can be found in High Seas Forecasts
issued by the National Weather Service. This is the last Special
Tropical Weather Outlook that will be issued on this system.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...near 0 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...low...near 0 percent.

Routine issuance of the Tropical Weather Outlook will resume on May
15, 2019.  During the off-season, Special Tropical Weather Outlooks
will be issued as conditions warrant.

High Seas Forecasts are issued by the National Weather Service
under AWIPS header NFDHSFEPI, WMO header FZPN02 KWBC, and are
available on the web at
https://ocean.weather.gov/shtml/NFDHSFEPI.shtml.

Forecaster Zelinsky
two_pac_2d0.png
two_pac_2d1.png
two_pac_5d0.png
two_pac_5d1.png
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发表于 2019-1-23 01:22 | 显示全部楼层
(前四张为动图)
gfs_mslp_wind_atl_fh48-204.gif
gfs_mslp_wind_atl_fh60-216.gif
fv3p_mslp_wind_atl_fh48-180.gif
ecmwf_mslp_uv850_atl_fh0-240.gif
89.phase1.png
89.phase2.png
89.track.png
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39

主题

466

帖子

1207

积分

强热带风暴

Dorian 160Kt 实测911hPa

积分
1207
发表于 2019-1-23 08:17 | 显示全部楼层
(前四张为动图)
双系统吗?
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发表于 2019-1-31 15:23 | 显示全部楼层
A pair of surface troughs are noted
farther east. The first is along 45W from 25N to 16N, and the
second extends from 20N37W to 12N38W. Scattered moderate
convection is from 15N-24N between 34W-43W. A large upper-level
low centered near 19N40W is enhancing this convection. A 1027 mb
high is centered over the E Atlantic near 31N28W.
two_atl_2d0.png
two_atl_2d0(1).png
two_atl_2d0 (1).png
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发表于 2019-2-7 21:09 | 显示全部楼层
gfs_mslp_wind_cpac_fh144-288.gif
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