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[2019] 【雙語回顧】寒冬裡破繭而出的蝴蝶——2019年超強颱風蝴蝶回顧

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发表于 2019-4-25 12:16 | 显示全部楼层 |阅读模式
本帖最后由 Luigi728 于 2019-8-19 17:18 编辑

【雙語回顧】寒冬裡破繭而出的蝴蝶——2019年超強颱風蝴蝶回顧
[Bilingual Typhoon Review] The Butterfly Breaking Through Cocoon in the Cold Winter – Typhoon Review of 2019 Super Typhoon Wutip

Screenshot 2019-04-24 at 6.49.53 PM.png

目錄
Table of Contents

一樓 Page 1——第一章:胚胎誕生  Chapter 1: Birth of the Embryo
二樓 Page 2——第二章:蝴蝶初飛  Chapter 2: Wutip Starts Flying
二樓 Page 2——第三章:被困瓶頸  Chapter 3: Trapped in the Bottleneck
三樓 Page 3——第四章:破繭而出  Chapter 4: Breaking Through the Cocoon
四樓 Page 4——第五章:二月風王  Chapter 5: Typhoon Queen of February
五樓 Page 5——第六章:眼壁置換  Chapter 6: Eyewall Replacement Cycle
五樓 Page 5——第七章:再創奇蹟  Chapter 7: Creating a Miracle Once again
六樓 Page 6——第八章:二巔完夢  Chapter 8: Dream Come True at Second Peak
七樓 Page 7——第九章:無憾結局  Chapter 9: The Ending With No Regrets
八樓 Page 8——尾聲:奇蹟的意義  Epilogue: The Meaning of Miracle
九樓 Page 9——後記                         Postscript



1280px-Wutip_2019-02-25_0345Z.jpg
蝴蝶巔峰照
Peak intensity picture of Wutip

1280px-Wutip_2019_track.png
蝴蝶路徑圖
Track of Wutip

Wutip_Fix_Time_Intensity copy.png
蝴蝶強度圖,根據美國聯合颱風警報中心(JTWC)、中國氣象局(CMA)、日本氣象廳(JMA)、香港天文台(HKO)、台灣中央氣象局(CWB)和韓國氣象廳(KMA)
Fix Time Intensity of Wutip According to US Joint Typhoon Warning Center (JTWC), China Meteorology Agency (CMA), Japan Meteorology Agency (JMA), Hong Kong Observatory (HKO), Taiwan Central Weather Bureau (CWB) and Korea Meteorology Administration (KMA)
註:JTWC採用一分鐘持續風速,CMA採用兩分鐘持續風速,JMA、HKO、CWB、KMA採用十分鐘持續風速
Note: JTWC uses 1-minute sustained windspeed, CMA uses 2-minute sustained windspeed, JMA, HKO, CWB and KMA uses 10-minute sustained windspeed

請注意以下所有的時間皆根據香港時區(UTC+8)。
Please note that the time referred below are all according to Hong Kong time zone (UTC+8).
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 楼主| 发表于 2019-4-25 12:19 | 显示全部楼层
第一章:胚胎誕生
Chapter 1: Birth of the Embryo

        2019年,註定是不平凡的一年。新一年的第一天,就已經出現了第一個熱帶氣旋——帕布,成為西北太平洋史上最早命名的熱帶氣旋。一個月後的二月中旬,北半球平均海溫接近到達最低點,卻又有一個雲團在西太遠洋開始發展。
        2019 is destined to be an extraordinary year. On the first day of the new year, the first tropical cyclone of 2019 – Pabuk already formed, becoming the earliest tropical cyclone ever named in Northwest Pacific Ocean. A month later, in mid-February, despite Northern Hemisphere average sea surface temperature almost reaching its lowest point, another cloud area started to develop in the Northwest Pacific Ocean.

HMW819021200.globe.1.jpg
2月12日,一個雲團在西太遠洋開始發展
On 12[sup]th[/sup]February, a cloud area started to develop in Northwest Pacific Ocean

        2月14日晚上,西北太平洋給風迷送上一份情人節禮物——熱帶擾動92W正式形成。雖然誕生在寒冬之中,但92W很幸運\地遇上了一個十分優良的環境——30-32度的高海溫、微弱的風切變,以及極佳的輻散,都十分有利於她的發展。因此,歐洲中期預報中心(ECMWF)、美國全球預測系統(GFS)等多個電腦數值預報都十分看好92W的發展——ECMWF預測92W能達到950hpa,GFS更上望瘋狂的905hpa!當時,這些預報都彷如天方夜譚。
        On the night of 14[sup]th[/sup]February, Northwest Pacific Ocean gave typhoon fans a Valentine’s Day gift – Tropical Disturbance 92W officially formed. Despite being born in the cold winter, 92W was very lucky, she got to enjoy an extremely favourable environment – high sea surface temperature (SST) of 30-32C, low vertical wind shear and excellent outflow, all factors that are very helpful to her development. Therefore, computer forecast models such as European Center for Medium-Range Weather Forecast (ECMWF) and US Global Forecast System (GFS) were all very optimistic about 92W’s development – ECMWF forecasted 92W to reach 950hpa, GFS even forecasted 92W to reach an insane atmospheric pressure of 905hpa! At that time, these forecasts seemed like impossible myths.

79_26427_4ff8dfe2fd94620.jpg
2月14日晚上剛剛誕生的熱帶擾動92W
14[sup]th[/sup]February night, Tropical Disturbance 92W was born

79_104531_a47eb3070896038.png
ECMWF上望950hpa
ECMWF forecasted 92W to reach 950hpa

79_104531_f7bb49a6c8baa53.png
GFS上望905hpa的瘋狂氣壓
GFS forecasted 92W to reach an insane atmospheric pressure of 905hpa

        在優良環境支持下,92W開始逐步增強。聯合颱風警報中心(JTWC)在2月16日給予Low的發展機率,隨後日本氣象廳(JMA)亦將其升格為低壓區。2月17日晚上,JTWC將其發展機率升至Medium。翌日早上,隨著92W的低層環流中心(LLCC)逐漸鞏固,對流亦持續增強,JTWC發出熱帶氣旋形成警報(TCFA),預測92W會在24小時內增強為熱帶低氣壓。
        Supported by the excellent environment, 92W started to gradually strengthen. On 16[sup]th[/sup]February, Joint Typhoon Warning Center (JTWC) gave her a development potential of Low, soon Japan Meteorology Agency (JMA) also upgraded her to a Low Pressure Area. On 17[sup]th[/sup]February night, JTWC increased her development potential to Medium. The next morning, as 92W’s Low Level Circulation Center (LLCC) gradually consolidated, and deep convection sustainably increased, JTWC issued a Tropical Cyclone Formation Alert (TCFA), forecasting 92W to reach Tropical Depression within 24 hours.

20190218.0500.hm8.x.vis1km.92WINVEST.15kts-1006mb-41N-1644E.100pc.jpg
218日早上,92WLLCC逐漸鞏固,對流持續增強,因此JTWC發出TCFA
18[sup]th[/sup]February morning, 92W’s LLCC gradually consolidated, deep convection sustainably increased, therefore JTWC issued a TCFA

        2月19日,92W的結構大幅改善,深對流開始覆蓋LLCC。因此JMA在2月19日凌晨將92W升格為熱帶低氣壓,更同時發出烈風警報(GW),預測92W會在24小時內增強為熱帶風暴。當天下午,92W的德沃夏克分析法T值(簡稱德法值)達到T1.5,因此JTWC亦將其升格為熱帶低氣壓,給予她02W的正式編號。考慮到多個電腦數值皆預報02W能達到很高的強度,JTWC第一報已經頗為激進地為02W上望90knots的二級颱風強度。
        On 19[sup]th[/sup]February, 92W’s structure significantly improved, her deep convection started covering her LLCC. Therefore, JMA upgraded 92W to a Tropical Depression on 19[sup]th[/sup]February midnight, further issuing a Gale Warning (GW) at the same time, forecasting that 92W will reach Tropical Storm within 24 hours. In that afternoon, 92W’s Dvorak Technique T-Value reached T1.5, therefore JTWC also upgraded her to a Tropical Depression, giving her an official serial number of 02W. Considering that many models forecasted 02W to reach a very high intensity, in JTWC’s first warning for 02W, JTWC aggressively forecasted that 02W can reach 90knots Category 2 intensity.

20190219.0600.hm8.x.vis1km.92WINVEST.20kts-1003mb-48N-1598E.100pc.jpg
2月19日,92W結構大幅改善,深對流覆蓋LLCC,因此JMA和JTWC皆將其升格為熱帶低氣壓
On 19[sup]th[/sup]February, 92W’s structure significantly improved, deep convection covered her LLCC, therefore both JMA and JTWC upgraded her to a Tropical Depression

79_105061_66b1b84daf70928.gif
JTWC為02W發出的第一報,頗為激進地上望90knots的二級颱風強度
JTWC’s first warning for 02W, aggressively forecasting 02W to reach 90knots Category 2 intensity

        隨後,02W繼續增強,不斷加強的深對流持續捲入一個愈加清晰的LLCC。隨著蝴蝶的德法值升至T2.0,在2月20日凌晨2時(18Z),JMA將02W升格為熱帶風暴,並正式將其命名為蝴蝶!蝴蝶飛翔之旅,由此正式開始!
        After that, 02W continued to intensify, improving deep convective banding wrapped into an increasingly defined LLCC. As Wutip’s Dvorak T-Value increased to T2.0, at 20[sup]th[/sup]February 2:00am (18Z), JMA upgraded 02W into a Tropical Storm, and officially named it Wutip! Wutip, a name given by Macau, means butterfly in Cantonese. Wutip’s journey of flying to glory, officially starts from here!

20190219.1800.hm8.x.ir1km_bw.02WTWO.30kts-1001mb-44N-1570E.100pc.jpg
2月20日上午2時,02W被JMA升格為熱帶風暴,並正式命名為蝴蝶!
20[sup]th[/sup]February 2:00am, 02W was upgraded to a Tropical Storm by JMA, and officially named as Wutip!
幸福和快樂是結局......一起寫我們的結局......
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 楼主| 发表于 2019-4-25 12:22 | 显示全部楼层
第二章:蝴蝶初飛
Chapter 2: Wutip Starts Flying

        JMA將蝴蝶升格為熱帶風暴的同時,JTWC也將蝴蝶升格為熱帶風暴,並進一步上望105knots的三級颱風強度。JMA、台灣中 央氣象局(CWB)和中國氣象局(CMA)亦分別上望80knots45m/s(十分鐘平均風速)55m/s(兩分鐘平均風速)的強度。
        At the same time as JMA upgraded Wutip to a Tropical Storm, JTWC also upgraded Wutip to a Tropical Storm, and further increased Wutip’s forecasted intensity up to 105knots Category 3. JMA, Taiwan Central Weather Bureau (CWB) and China Meteorology Agency (CMA) also forecasted Wutip to reach 80knots, 45m/s (10-min sustained winds) and 55m/s (2-min sustained winds) respectively.

79_101175_14505e3af8458b3.gif
220日凌晨,JTWC同樣將蝴蝶升格為熱帶風暴,並進一步上望105knots三級颱風
20[sup]th[/sup]Febraury midnight, JTWC also upgraded Wutip to a Tropical Storm, and further increased Wutip’s forecasted intensity up to 105knots Category 3

        蝴蝶沒有辜負各大氣象局和電腦數值的期望,在優良的環境支持下,蝴蝶在命名後迅速發展。220日晚上,蝴蝶的對流持續增強,並開始覆蓋整個LLCC,因此JMACMA皆將蝴蝶升格為強烈熱帶風暴。隨著蝴蝶發展出中心密集雲區(CDO),並且開始建立一個低層風眼,到了221日早上,JTWC將蝴蝶升格為一級颱風,JMA亦將蝴蝶升格為颱風。蝴蝶命名僅僅24小時後,已經增強至一級颱風!
        Wutip did not let down the hopes of meteorology agencies and models, supported by the excellent environment, Wutip quickly developed after she was named. On 20[sup]th[/sup]February night, Wutip’s convective banding continued improving, convection starting to completely surround the LLCC, therefore both JMA and CMA upgraded Wutip to Severe Tropical Storm. As Wutip developed a Cold Dense Overcast (CDO), and started to build a low-level eye, on 21[sup]st[/sup]February morning, JTWC upgraded Wutip to a Category 1 Typhoon, JMA also upgraded Wutip to Typhoon intensity. Only 24 hours after Wutip was named, she already intensified into a Category 1 Typhoon!

20190221.0000.hm8.x.vis1km.02WWUTIP.65kts-984mb-62N-1505E.100pc.jpg
221日早上,蝴蝶發展出中心密集雲區(CDO)
21[sup]st[/sup]February morning, Wutip developed a Cold Dense Overcast (CDO)

79_100270_7e04fd94f52fbbf.jpg
221日早上,蝴蝶開始建立低層風眼,因此JTWCJMA分別將蝴蝶升格為一級颱風和颱風
21[sup]st[/sup]February morning, Wutip started to build a low-level eye, therefore JTWC and JMA upgraded Wutip to Category 1 Typhoon and Typhoon respectively

        221日晚上,隨著蝴蝶的CDO的對流繼續加強,蝴蝶的德法值進一步上升至T5.0,因此JTWC將蝴蝶升格為二級颱風。翌日晚上,蝴蝶終於開出一個清晰的高層風眼。使用風眼分析可得出其德法值為B+MG=T5.5,因此JTWC將蝴蝶升格為三級颱風,CMA亦將蝴蝶升格為強颱風。此時,蝴蝶強度已經達到JTWC當初所上望的105knots
        On 21[sup]st[/sup]February night, as Wutip’s CDO convection continued to strengthen, Wutip’s Dvorak T-Value reaches T5.0, therefore JTWC upgraded Wutip to Category 2. On the next night, Wutip finally opened a clear upper-level eye. Using eye pattern analysis, Wutip’s Dvorak T-Value was B+MG=T5.5, therefore JTWC upgraded Wutip to a Category 3 Typhoon, CMA also upgraded Wutip to a Severe Typhoon. At this point, Wutip has already reached 105knots, the intensity that JTWC initially forecasted Wutip to reach!

79_93664_f7be3000710cfc3.jpg
222日晚上,蝴蝶開出一個可見光雲圖中清晰可見的高層風眼
22[sup]nd[/sup]February night, Wutip opened up a clear upper-level eye that can be clearly seen in visible imagery

20190222.1200.hm8.ir.BD.02WWUTIP.105kts-954mb.jpg
222日晚上,蝴蝶德法值為B+MG=T5.5,因此JTWC將蝴蝶升格為105knots三級颱風
22[sup]nd[/sup]February night, Wutip’s Dvorak T-Value was B+MG=T5.5, therefore JTWC upgraded Wutip to a 105knots Category 3 Typhoon


第三章:被困瓶頸
Chapter 3: Trapped in the Bottleneck

       可是,隨著蝴蝶持續向西北偏西移動,移向較高緯度,蝴蝶身處的環境開始變差。蝴蝶身處的海溫從29-30度下降至27-28度,垂直風切變也上升至15-20knots。這導致蝴蝶的發展陷入停滯。蝴蝶雖然一度開出高層風眼,但風眼未能持續清空,高層風眼在可見光雲圖中變得僅僅若隱若現。
        However, as Wutip continued to move west-northwestwards into higher latitudes, her surrounding environment started worsening. Her surrounding SST decreased from 29-30 degrees to 27-28 degrees, vertical wind shear also increased to 15-20knots. This caused Wutip’s development to enter stagnation. Even though Wutip opened up an upper-level eye for a time, her eye could not sustainably clear up, her upper-level eye popped in and out of view in visible imagery.

sstD_HT20190223.png
223日,隨著蝴蝶逐漸移向較高緯度,蝴蝶身處的海溫下降至27-28
23[sup]rd[/sup]February, as Wutip gradually moved into higher latitudes, her surrounding SST decreased to 27-28 degrees

Screenshot 2019-04-09 at 9.35.01 PM.png
蝴蝶身處的垂直風切變上升至15-20knots
Wutip’s surrounding vertical wind shear increased to 15-20knots

79_93664_b2920048513933b.jpg
223日凌晨,受到逐漸惡化的環境影響,蝴蝶曾經清晰的高層風眼變得僅僅若隱若現
23[sup]rd[/sup]February midnight, due to worsening surrounding environment, Wutip’s upper-level eye that was once very clear became only popping in and out of view

        初時,JMACMACWB皆預測蝴蝶能夠繼續稍微增強,只有JTWC認為蝴蝶已經達到巔峰。但到了223日早上,隨著蝴蝶強度停滯的時間越來越長,加上環境繼續惡化,JMACWB都對蝴蝶失去了希望,開始預測蝴蝶不會再增強。到此時,只剩下CMA仍然繼續上望超強颱風。
        Initially, JMA, CMA and CWB all forecasted that Wutip could continue to slightly intensify, only JTWC believed that Wutip has already reached her peak. However, by 23[sup]rd[/sup]February morning, as Wutip’s intensity stagnation became longer and longer, and her environment continued to worsen, JMA and CWB both lost hope for Wutip, and started forecasting that Wutip would not intensify anymore. At this time, only CMA continued to forecast that Wutip can reach Super Typhoon.

        能夠在二月寒冬裡達到三級颱風的強度,已經是十分了不起的事。要知道,過去七十年只有1970南施和2015海高斯兩個颱風能夠在二月達到更高的強度。然而,蝴蝶卻仍然有更大的理想。即使強度停滯了一段時間,即使身處的環境不再理想,即使大部分氣象局都預測蝴蝶無法再次增強,但蝴蝶沒有因此而氣餒。就在幾乎所有人都認為她會放棄之時,蝴蝶卻選擇突然破繭而出!
        Being able to reach Category 3 Typhoon intensity in the cold winter of February is already a very amazing achievement. In the past 70 years, only two other typhoons – 1970 Nancy and 2015 Higos – have reached higher intensitiesin February. However, Wutip had an even higher ambition. Despite her intensity stagnated for a long time, despite her surrounding environment was not favourable anymore, despite most meteorology agencies believing that Wutip was unable to intensify anymore, Wutip still did not become discouraged. At the moment when almost everyone believed that Wutip will give up, Wutip decided to suddenly break through the cocoon!
幸福和快樂是結局......一起寫我們的結局......
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 楼主| 发表于 2019-4-25 12:31 | 显示全部楼层
第四章:破繭而出
Chapter 4: Breaking Through the Cocoon

        223日早上,蝴蝶的生命出現一個重大轉折——隨著蝴蝶成功打開極向流出,她身處的高空輻散和低空輻合開始大幅上升。在上午8時至下午2時的六小時內,蝴蝶的高空輻散從30升至40,低空輻合從40升至50。這令蝴蝶的發展突然變得十分順利,蝴蝶不但重新開始增強,更進入爆發增強!
        23[sup]rd[/sup]February morning, a significant turning point occurred in Wutip’s life – as Wutip’s poleward outflow drastically improved, her surrounding upper air divergence and lower air convergence significantly increased. In the 6 hours between 8:00am and 2:00pm, Wutip’s upper air divergence increased from 30 to 40, lower air convergence increased from 40 to 50. This allowed Wutip’s development to suddenly become very successful. Wutip not only started intensifying once again, she entered a stage of explosive intensification!

Screenshot 2019-04-11 at 9.41.18 PM.png
223日早上,蝴蝶身處的高空輻散開始大幅上升,下午2時高空輻散達到40
23[sup]rd[/sup]February morning, Wutip’s surrounding upper air divergence started significantly increasing, reaching 40 by 2:00pm

Screenshot 2019-04-11 at 9.43.21 PM.png
蝴蝶身處的低空輻合同樣開始大幅上升,下午2時低空輻合達到50
Wutip’s lower air convergence also started significantly increasing, reaching 50 by 2:00pm

        蝴蝶的風眼開始大幅清空,眼溫在六小時內從LG大幅升至OW,風眼的形狀也明顯變得更為規則,可見光雲圖中變得更為清晰。蝴蝶的對流環形狀同樣變得更為規則,雖然下午2W環未能完全合格,但比起六小時前明顯有大幅進步。下午2時,蝴蝶的德法值為B+OW=T6.0,因此JTWC將蝴蝶升格為115knots四級颱風,但仍然不預測蝴蝶能夠達到更高強度。JMACMACWB也有上調蝴蝶的強度,但JMACWB同樣不預測蝴蝶能夠達到更高強度,只有CMA繼續上望超強颱風。
        Wutip’s typhoon eye started rapidly clearing, her eye temperature rapidly increased from LG to OW within 6 hours, the shape of the eye also became significantly more regular, her eye became clearer in visual imagery. Wutip’s convection ring also became more organized, even though her W-ring could not fulfill width requirements by 2:00pm, there is obvious improvement compared to 6 hours ago. At 2:00pm, Wutip’s Dvorak T-Value was B+OW=T6.0, therefore JTWC upgraded Wutip to a 115knots Category 4 Typhoon, but JTWC still didn’t forecast Wutip could reach a higher intensity. JMA, CMA and CWB also increased Wutip’s intensity, but JMA and CWB also didn’t forecast Wutip to reach a higher intensity, only CMA continued to forecast that Wutip can reach Super Typhoon.

20190223.0600.hm8.ir.BD.02WWUTIP.115kts-943mb.jpg
223日下午2時,蝴蝶德法值為B+OW=T6.0,風眼和對流環的形狀都有大幅進步,因此JTWC將蝴蝶升格為115knots四級颱風
23[sup]rd[/sup]February 2:00pm, Wutip’s Dvorak T-Value was B+OW=T6.0, there was also significantly improvement in the shape of her eye and convection ring, therefore JTWC upgraded Wutip to 115knots Category 4 Typhoon

        蝴蝶決心要證明給那些不看好自己的氣象局看,自己有能力達到創造奇蹟。根據JTWC,此時她與二月最強颱風2015海高斯的強度——130knots還差15knots15knots的距離似乎頗為遙遠,但絕非遙不可及。在下午2時至8時之間的六小時內,蝴蝶身處的高空輻散和低空輻合繼續不斷上升,低空輻合從50升至60,高空輻散更從40瘋狂急升至60!在愈趨優良的環境支持下,蝴蝶繼續爆發增強,繼續向成為二月風王的目標進發!
        Wutip was determined to prove to those meteorology agencies who do not trust in her that she has the ability to create a miracle. According to JTWC, at this time she was 15knots away from the strongest February typhoon 2015 Higos’ intensity – 130knots. 15knots of distance seemed pretty far, but definitely not unachievable. In the 6 hours between 2:00pm and 8:00pm, Wutip’s surrounding upper air divergence and lower air convergence continued increasing, lower air convergence increased from 50 to 60, upper air divergence rapidly increased from 40 to 60! Supported by the improving surrounding environment, Wutip continued explosively intensifying, continuing to move towards her goal of becoming the Typhoon Queen of February!

Screenshot 2019-04-12 at 12.15.16 AM.png
223日下午,蝴蝶身處的高空輻散繼續瘋狂急升,下午8時高空輻散達到60
23[sup]rd[/sup]February afternoon, Wutip’s surrounding upper air divergence continued rapidly increasing, reaching 60 by 8:00pm

Screenshot 2019-04-12 at 12.15.21 AM.png
蝴蝶身處的低空輻合同樣繼續急升,下午8時低空輻合達到60
Wutip’s lower air convergence also continued rapidly increasing, reaching 60 by 8:00pm

79_101039_f80a27ca2e68fbe.png
蝴蝶周邊的高空風向,可見她的極向流出非常強勁
Wutip’s surrounding upper air wind direction, showing that her poleward outflow was extremely strong
幸福和快樂是結局......一起寫我們的結局......
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 楼主| 发表于 2019-4-25 12:35 | 显示全部楼层
第五章:二月風王
Chapter 5: Typhoon Queen of February

        蝴蝶的對流環繼續急速加強,僅一小時後,蝴蝶不但W環達到合格寬度,更已經圍成一圈CMG環!隨後蝴蝶的CMG環快速增大,到了下午6時,連CMG環也達到了合格寬度,CMG+OW=T7.0,蝴蝶達到對應五級颱風的德法值!同時,蝴蝶的眼溫也不斷急速上升。在下午7時,蝴蝶的眼溫達到最高程度WMGCMG+WMG=T7.5,蝴蝶的德法值竟然在五小時內從T6.0狂升至T7.5
        Wutip’s convection ring continued to rapidly improve, only one hour later, Wutip not only had her W-ring reach the necessary width requirement, she also enclosed a CMG-ring! After that, Wutip’s CMG-ring quickly grew in size, at 6:00pm, even her CMG-ring reached the necessary width requirement, CMG+OW=T7.0, Wutip reached the Dvorak T-Value that corresponds to a Category 5 Typhoon! At the same time, Wutip’s eye temperature also continued rapidly increasing. By 7:00pm, Wutip’s eye temperature reached the highest level WMG, CMG+WMG=T7.5, Wutip’s Dvorak T-Value insanely increased from T6.0 to T7.5 within only 5 hours!

20190223.1100.hm8.ir.BD.02WWUTIP.120kts-933mb.jpg
下午7時,蝴蝶的CMG環達到合格寬度,同時眼溫升至最高的WMGCMG+WMG=T7.5,蝴蝶的德法值在五小時內狂升1.5
At 7:00pm, Wutip’s CMG-ring reached the necessary width requirement, eye temperature increased to the highest level WMG, CMG+WMG=T7.5, Wutip’s Dvorak T-Value insanely increased by 1.5 within only 5 hours!

        到了下午8時,各大氣象局發佈12Z一報的時間,雖然蝴蝶的CMG環不再合格,但仍然擁有W+WMG=T7.0的驚人德法值。看到蝴蝶脫繭而出後煥然一新的一面,各大氣象局都連忙大幅提高蝴蝶的強度。JMA將蝴蝶的強度從85knots大幅提升至100knotsCMA將蝴蝶從50m/s強颱風升格為58m/s超強颱風,CWB將蝴蝶從40m/s中度颱風升格為51m/s強烈颱風!JTWC更將蝴蝶的強度從115knots大幅升至135knots——這代表蝴蝶打破了2015年海高斯130knots的紀錄,成為有紀錄以來西北太平洋以至北半球二月最強颱風!!!雖然各大氣象局在定強上經常會出現分歧,但今次,所有氣象局皆達成共識——蝴蝶毫無疑問成為西北太平洋二月風王!在2019223日下午8(12Z),脫繭而出的蝴蝶完成了奇蹟,正式榮登二月風王!!!
        At 8:00pm, which is when meteorology agencies issue their 12Z warning, despite that Wutip’s CMG-ring could not fulfill width requirements anymore, but Wutip still possess an amazing Dvorak T-Value of W+WMG=T7.0. Witnessing Wutip’s brand new appearance after she broke through her cocoon, all the meteorology agencies drastically increased Wutip’s intensity immediately. JMA drastically raised Wutip’s intensity from 85knots to 100knots, CMA upgraded Wutip from 50m/s Severe Typhoon to 58m/s Super Typhoon, CWB upgraded Wutip from 40m/s Moderate Typhoon to 51m/s Intense Typhoon! JTWC dramatically increased Wutip’s intensity from 115knots to 135knots – this means that Wutip has broken the record of 2015 Higos 130knots, and became the strongest typhon ever recorded in February in Northwest Pacific Ocean and the entire Northern Hemisphere!!! Even though meteorology agencies often have conflict in their intensity assessment, but this time all meteorology agencies came to a consensus – Wutip is no doubt the February Typhoon Queen of Northwest Pacific Ocean! At 23[sup]rd[/sup]February 2019 12Z, this butterfly who broke through the cocoon completed the miracle, and became the Typhoon Queen of February!!!

20190223.1200.hm8.ir.BD.02WWUTIP.120kts-933mb.jpg
下午8時,蝴蝶的德法值為W+WMG=T7.0,因此JTWC將蝴蝶的強度大幅升至135knots,代表蝴蝶打破海高斯的紀錄,成為有記錄以來西北太平洋二月最強颱風!
At 8:00pm, Wutip’s Dvorak T-Value was W+WMG=T7.0, therefore JTWC dramatically increased Wutip’s intensity to 135knots, meaning that Wutip broke the record of Higos, and became the strongest typhoon ever recorded in February in Northwest Pacific Ocean!

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223日晚上的超強颱風蝴蝶
Super Typhoon Wutip on 23[sup]rd[/sup]February night

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223日晚上的超強颱風蝴蝶
Super Typhoon Wutip on 23[sup]rd[/sup]February night

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223日晚上的超強颱風蝴蝶
Super Typhoon Wutip on 23[sup]rd[/sup]February night

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223日晚上的超強颱風蝴蝶(圖片感謝Harrison Tran製作)
Super Typhoon Wutip on 23[sup]rd[/sup]February night (Credits to Harrison Tran)

        而且,JTWC不但將蝴蝶的強度升至二月最高的135knotsJTWC更徹底推翻之前認為蝴蝶已經達到巔峰的預測,改為預測蝴蝶將會繼續增強至140knots的五級颱風強度!此時,蝴蝶的德法值已經達到對應140knotsT7.0,只是由於六小時前蝴蝶強度仍然在115knots,令JTWC不願意立刻將蝴蝶升格為五級颱風。因此,只要蝴蝶未來六小時內能夠繼續維持T7.0的德法值,JTWC便肯定會將蝴蝶升格為五級颱風!如果成真,蝴蝶將會為西北太平洋完成一項偉大的紀錄——西北太平洋將會成為首個每一個月份都出現過五級颱風的洋區!現時,西北太平洋已經有11個月份出現過五級颱風——十二月有2012寶霞、2014黑格比等等,三月有2002米娜和2015美莎克,就連一月也有1958奧菲莉亞。只有二月仍然未出現過五級颱風。蝴蝶與成為西太首個二月五級颱風只差一步之遙了,到底她能夠完成這個更神奇的奇蹟嗎?
        JTWC not only increased Wutip’s intensity to the highest ever in February – 135knots, they even completely scrapped their previous forecast that Wutip has already reached her peak, and instead forecasted Wutip to continue intensifying up to a 140knots Category 5! At this time, Wutip’s Dvorak T-Value has already reached T7.0, which corresponds to 140knots, but because Wutip’s intensity was only 115knots 6 hours ago, JTWC was reluctant to immediately upgrade Wutip to Category 5. This means that as long as Wutip can sustain her Dvorak T-Value of T7.0 in the next 6 hours, JTWC will certainly upgrade Wutip to a Category 5! If this comes true, Wutip will complete a mighty record for Northwest Pacific Ocean – Northwest Pacific Ocean will become the first ever ocean to have recorded a Category 5 in every single month! By now, Northwest Pacific had already recorded a Category 5 in 11 months – December had 2012 Bopha and 2014 Hagupit and many more, March had 2002 Mitag and 2015 Maysak, even January had 1958 Ophelia. Only February had never recorded a Category 5. Wutip was only one step away from becoming the first ever Category 5 Typhoon in February in Northwest Pacific Ocean, can she complete this ever more amazing miracle?

79_101175_7a630d2b31d5367.gif
223日下午8時,JTWC不僅將蝴蝶的強度升至打破二月最強颱風紀錄的135knotsJTWC更預測蝴蝶能夠達到140knots的五級颱風強度!
23[sup]rd [/sup]February 8:00pm, JTWC not only increased Wutip’s intensity to 135knots – a record breaking intensity for February typhoons, JTWC even forecasted Wutip to continue intensifying up to a 140knots Category 5 Typhoon!
幸福和快樂是結局......一起寫我們的結局......
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 楼主| 发表于 2019-4-25 12:38 | 显示全部楼层
第六章:眼壁置換
Chapter 6: Eyewall Replacement Cycle

        可惜,事與願違,蝴蝶剛剛達到135knots,便開始進入眼壁置換。隨著蝴蝶開始發展出外眼,她的內眼牆逐漸受到侵蝕。凌晨2時,隨著蝴蝶西面的眼牆不斷減弱,蝴蝶的W環斷裂,同時眼溫也下降至OW,因此她的德法值從T7.0大幅降至B+OW=T6.0。由於蝴蝶T7.0的德法值未能維持到18Z,因此JTWC未能在18Z將蝴蝶升格為140knots五級颱風,只能將她的的強度維持在135knots
        Unfortunately, right after Wutip reached 135knots, she started to enter an eyewall replacement cycle. As an outer eye started to develop, her inner eyewall gradually started to erode. At 2:00am, as Wutip’s western eyewall continuously weakened, Wutip’s W-ring broke down, her eye temperature also decreased down to OW, therefore her Dvorak T-Value drastically dropped from T7.0 down to B+OW=T6.0. As Wutip’s Dvorak T-Value of T7.0 could not sustain until 18Z, therefore JTWC could not upgrade Wutip to a 140knots Category 5 Typhoon at 18Z, and could only maintain her intensity at 135knots.

79_104531_b2297b2c4549a5e.jpg
223日晚上,蝴蝶開始發展出外眼,進入眼壁置換
23[sup]rd[/sup]February night, an outer eye started to develop, meaning that Wutip started to enter an eyewall replacement cycle

20190223.1800.hm8.ir.BD.02WWUTIP.135kts-922mb.jpg
224日凌晨2時,蝴蝶的德法值大幅下降至B+OW=T6.0,因此JTWC未能將她升格為五級颱風
At 24[sup]th[/sup]February 2:00am, Wutip’s Dvorak T-Value drastically decreased to B+OW=T6.0, therefore JTWC could not upgrade her to Category 5 Typhoon

        隨著蝴蝶繼續進行眼壁置換,她的德法值持續下降。到了早上8時,蝴蝶的B環不再合格,德法值下降至LG+OW=T5.5。雖然JTWC仍然根據德法滯後規則將蝴蝶的強度維持在135knots,但不再上望五級颱風,並且預測蝴蝶將會開始持續減弱。下午2時,JTWC將蝴蝶的強度大幅降至115knots。之後,隨著蝴蝶進入外眼取代內眼的過程,蝴蝶的德法值進一步下降至B+LG=T5.0JTWC在下午8時將蝴蝶降格為105knots三級颱風。
        As Wutip continues her eyewall replacement cycle, her Dvorak T-Value continued to decrease. At 8:00am, Wutip’s B-ring could not fulfill width requirements anymore, her Dvorak T-Value decreased to LG+OW=T5.5. Despite that JTWC still maintained her intensity at 135knots due to Dvorak Technique constraints, JTWC stopped forecasting that Wutip will intensify to Category 5 anymore, and forecasted that Wutip will start continuously weakening. At 2:00pm, JTWC drastically downgraded Wutip’s intensity to 115knots. Later, as Wutip entered the stage where her outer eyewall replaced her inner eyewall, Wutip’s Dvorak T-Value further decreased down to B+LG=T5.0, JTWC thus downgraded Wutip to a 105knots Category 3 at 8:00pm.

79_93664_691360ed7755025.jpg
224日晚上,蝴蝶的外眼正在取代內眼
24[sup]th[/sup]February night, Wutip’s outer eyewall was replacing her inner eyewall

20190224.1200.hm8.ir.BD.02WWUTIP.105kts-944mb.jpg
眼壁置換期間,紅外線雲圖中蝴蝶的風眼變得十分不規則,德法值下降至B+LG=T5.0,因此JTWC將她降格為三級颱風
During eyewall replacement cycle, Wutip’s eye in infrared imagery became very irregular shaped, her Dvorak T-Value decreased down to B+LG=T5.0, JTWC thus downgraded her to Category 3

        隨著蝴蝶繼續移向較高緯度,蝴蝶身處的環境逐漸惡化。蝴蝶身處的海溫逐步下降至26-27度,海洋熱含量(OHC)跌至35以下,並且更遭受乾空氣入侵。雖然蝴蝶的眼壁置換進度良好,但眼見蝴蝶身處的環境愈趨惡劣,沒有一個氣象局認為蝴蝶能夠重新增強。所有氣象局皆預測蝴蝶將會持續減弱,並在3-4日內消散。
        As Wutip continued to move into higher latitudes, Wutip’s surrounding environment gradually worsened. Wutip’s surrounding SST decreased down to 26-27C, ocean heat content (OHC) decreased below 35, and she was also suffering from dry air entrainment. Despite that Wutip’s eyewall replacement cycle was in good progress, seeing that Wutip’s surrounding environment was becoming more and more unfavourable, not a single meteorology agency believed that Wutip could reintensify. All meteorology agencies forecasted that Wutip will continue to weaken, and dissipate within the next 3-4 days.

        此時,甚至連我也不再認為蝴蝶有可能重新增強。我在Facebook裡寫道:「如無意外,蝴蝶最終還是與五級颱風差之毫釐,留下一個遺憾。為西北太平洋完成二月五級颱風的任務,只能留給下一個英雄了。」然而,這一隻頑強的蝴蝶偏偏就是要證明所有人都是錯的——包括我這個慣性樂觀的風迷。最難以置信的奇蹟發生了——蝴蝶竟然再一次破繭而出!
        At this point, even I myself did not believe that Wutip could possibly reintensify anymore. I wrote in Facebook, “unless another miracle happens, Wutip’s journey to reach Category 5 was so close but so far, leaving a regret behind. The mission of completing a February Category 5 Typhoon for Northwest Pacific, could only be left for the next hero.” But this tenacious butterfly simply had to prove everyone wrong – including an usually optimistic typhoon fan like me. The most unbelievable miracle happened – Wutip broke through the cocoon once again!


第七章:再創奇蹟
Chapter 7: Creating a Miracle Once Again

        225日凌晨,蝴蝶眼壁置換接近完成。雖然她身處的環境十分惡劣,但僅僅憑著仍然較強的的高空輻散和低空輻合,蝴蝶竟然開始重新增強。蝴蝶的風眼重新清空,對流也開始大幅增強。在上午2時,蝴蝶再次圍起一圈完整合格的W環,眼溫上升至DG,德法值迅速升至W+DG=T6.5!因此,JTWC將蝴蝶的強度從105knots再次升至110knots
       25[sup]th[/sup]February midnight, Wutip’s eyewall replacement cycle came close to finishing. Despite that her surrounding environment was very unfavourable, with only the support of strong upper air divergence and lower air convergence, Wutip unexpectedly started to reintensify. Wutip’s eye started clearing up once again, her convection also significantly intensified. At 2:00am, Wutip again encircled a complete W-ring that fulfilled width requirements, her eye temperature increased to DG, her Dvorak T-Value rapidly increased to W+DG=T6.5! Therefore, JTWC increased Wutip’s intensity from 105knots to 110knots once again!

79_93664_d6603ae69d6ac76.jpg
225日凌晨,蝴蝶眼壁置換接近完成,風眼開始重新清空
25[sup]th[/sup]February midnight, Wutip’s eyewall replacement cycle came close to finishing, her eye started clearing up once again

20190224.1800.hm8.ir.BD.02WWUTIP.105kts-955mb.jpg
225日上午2時,蝴蝶德法值大幅上升至W+DG=T6.5JTWC將蝴蝶的強度再次升至110knots
25[sup]th[/sup]February 2:00am, Wutip’s Dvorak T-Value rapidly increased to W+DG=T6.5, JTWC increased Wutip’s intensity to 110knots once again

        在之後六小時內,蝴蝶繼續完成眼壁置換。到了日出之時,蝴蝶嶄新的風眼完美地展現在陽光之下。蝴蝶的眼溫進一步升至OW,德法值W+OW=T6.5,繼續逼近蝴蝶的目標——T7.0!在上午8時,JTWC將蝴蝶再一次升格為120knots四級颱風,CMACWB也分別將蝴蝶再次升格為52m/s超強颱風和51m/s強烈颱風!雖然如此,但仍然沒有一個氣象局預測蝴蝶能夠繼續達到更高強度,所有氣象局都仍然維持蝴蝶將會隨即開始減弱的預測。然而蝴蝶就是要證明給世人看,自己能夠再次創造出奇蹟——一個更神奇的奇蹟!
       In the next 6 hours, Wutip continued to finish her eyewall replacement cycle. At sunrise, Wutip’s brand new eye perfectly displayed under the sunshine. Wutip’s eye temperature further increased to OW, her Dvorak T-Value was W+OW=T6.5, continuing to close in on her goal – T7.0! At 8:00am, JTWC upgraded Wutip to 120knots Category 4 Typhoon once again, CMA and CWB also again upgraded Wutip to 52m/s Super Typhoon and 51m/s Intense Typhoon respectively! However, still not a single meteorology agency forecasted that Wutip could reach an even higher intensity, all meteorology agencies still kept their forecast that Wutip will immediately start weakening. But Wutip simply had to prove to the world that she can once again create a miracle – an even more amazing miracle!

79_104649_f51fd1eb906ccaa.jpg
225日早上,蝴蝶完成眼壁置換,開出一個嶄新的風眼
25[sup]th[/sup]February morning, Wutip finished her eyewall replacement cycle, and opened up a brand new eye

20190225.0000.hm8.ir.BD.02WWUTIP.110kts-941mb.jpg
上午8時,蝴蝶的德法值為W+OW=T6.5JTWC將蝴蝶再一次升格為120knots四級颱風
At 8:00am, Wutip’s Dvorak T-Value was W+OW=T6.5, JTWC upgraded Wutip to 120knots Category 4 Typhoon once again

        蝴蝶繼續朝著五級颱風的目標進發。到了上午10時,蝴蝶的眼溫終於再次升至WMG!這代表蝴蝶的德法值再一次達到對應140knots五級颱風的W+WMG=T7.0!然而,蝴蝶還需要將T7.0的德法值維持到下午2時——各大氣象局發佈06Z一報的時間。蝴蝶做到了,到了下午2時,蝴蝶的德法值繼續維持在W+WMG=T7.0。現在問題就是,到底JTWC會仍然像上一次一樣——殘忍地拒絕給予蝴蝶五級颱風的評價,還是會終於讓蝴蝶夢想成真——將蝴蝶升格為五級颱風?
        Wutip continued to progress towards her goal of reaching Category 5. At 10:00am, Wutip’s eye temperature finally once again reached WMG! This means that Wutip’s Dvorak T-Value once again reached W+WMG=T7.0, the corresponding Dvorak-T Value to 140knots Category 5! However, Wutip still had to maintain her Dvorak T-Value of T7.0 to 2:00pm – the time when meteorology agencies issue their 06Z warning. Wutip did it, at 2:00pm, Wutip’s Dvorak T-Value maintained at W+WMG=T7.0. Now the question is, will JTWC do the same thing as last time – cruelly denying Category 5 intensity away from Wutip, or will JTWC finally let Wutip dream come true – upgrading Wutip to Category 5 Typhoon?

20190225.0600.hm8.ir.BD.02WWUTIP.140kts-918mb.jpg
下午2時,蝴蝶的德法值升至對應140knots五級颱風的W+WMG=T7.0,到底JTWC今次會將蝴蝶升格為五級颱風嗎?
At 2:00pm, Wutip’s Dvorak T-Value increased to W+WMG=T7.0, the corresponding Dvorak T-Value to 140knots Category 5, will JTWC upgrade Wutip to Category 5 Typhoon this time?
幸福和快樂是結局......一起寫我們的結局......
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 楼主| 发表于 2019-4-25 12:48 | 显示全部楼层
第八章:二巔完夢
Chapter 8: Dream Come True at Second Peak

        最終,懸念揭曉了——在2019225日下午2(06Z)JTWC將蝴蝶升格為140knots五級颱風!!!蝴蝶成為西北太平洋以至整個北半球有記錄以來第一個在二月出現的五級颱風!這同時也代表西北太平洋終於完成一項偉大的紀錄——西北太平洋成為史上首個每一個月份都出現過五級颱風的洋區!!!經過幾百年的等待,終於有一個洋區能夠在每一個月份都出現過五級颱風,這個洋區就是偉大的西北太平洋!而這項紀錄就是由偉大的五級颱風蝴蝶完成的!每一個看著蝴蝶達到五級颱風的人,都是在見證著歷史締造的一刻!!!
       Finally, the long wait is over – at 25[sup]th[/sup]February 2019 06Z, JTWC upgraded Wutip to 140knots Category 5 Typhoon!!! Wutip became the first ever Category 5 Typhoon to appear in February in Northwest Pacific Ocean and the entire Northern Hemisphere! This also means that Northwest Pacific Ocean finally completed a mighty record – Northwest Pacific Ocean became the first ever ocean to have recorded a Category 5 Typhoon in every single month in history! After hundreds of years of waiting, finally there is an ocean which has recorded a Category 5 Typhoon in every single month, that ocean is the great Northwest Pacific Ocean! And this record is completed by the great Category 5 Typhoon Wutip! Every single person who saw the sight of Wutip reaching Category 5 Typhoon, is witnessing history being written in front of their eyes!

79_93664_eded1db70ca5eeb.gif
下午2時,JTWC將蝴蝶升格為140knots五級颱風,代表蝴蝶成為西北太平洋有記錄以來第一個在二月出現的五級颱風,並且讓西北太平洋成為史上首個每一個月份都出現過五級颱風的洋區!
At 2:00pm, JTWC upgraded Wutip to 140knots Category 5 Typhoon, meaning that Wutip became the first ever Category 5 Typhoon to appear in February in Northwest Pacific Ocean, and helped Northwest Pacific Ocean become the first ever ocean to have recorded a Category 5 Typhoon in every single month in history!

79_93664_4ccdc7bc90e62b0.jpg
225日下午的五級颱風蝴蝶
Category 5 Typhoon Wutip on 25[sup]th[/sup]February afternoon

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225日下午的五級颱風蝴蝶
Category 5 Typhoon Wutip on 25[sup]th[/sup]February afternoon

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225日下午的五級颱風蝴蝶
Category 5 Typhoon Wutip on 25[sup]th[/sup]February afternoon

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225日下午的五級颱風蝴蝶
Category 5 Typhoon Wutip on 25[sup]th[/sup]February afternoon

        除了JTWC將蝴蝶升格為五級颱風以外,其他氣象局也將蝴蝶的強度再次大幅提升。JMA將蝴蝶的強度升至105knots,超越蝴蝶第一次巔峰的100knots,令蝴蝶成為有記錄以來最早出現的猛烈颱風!CWB將蝴蝶的強度升至53m/s,同樣超越蝴蝶第一次巔峰的51m/s!蝴蝶此時剛剛進入香港天文台(HKO)的服務區域(140E以西)HKO將蝴蝶的強度評價為210km/h超強颱風,證明HKO也認為蝴蝶超越2015海高斯成為有記錄以來最強西太二月颱風!只有CMA僅將蝴蝶的強度升至55m/s,沒能超越第一次巔峰58m/s
       In addition to JTWC upgrading Wutip to Category 5 Typhoon, other meteorology agencies also dramatically increased Wutip’s intensity once again. JMA increased Wutip’s intensity to 105knots, exceeding her first peak intensity of 100knots, meaning that Wutip became the earliest Intensive Typhoon to appear in a calendar year ever recorded! CWB increased Wutip’s intensity to 53m/s, also exceeding her first peak intensity of 51m/s! Wutip just entered Hong Kong Observatory (HKO)’s service area (west of 140E) at this time, HKO accessed Wutip’s intensity at 210km/h Super Typhoon, proving that HKO also believed that Wutip has exceeded 2015 Higos and became the strongest February typhoon ever in Northwest Pacific Ocean! Only CMA believed that Wutip did not exceed her first peak of 58m/s, and merely increased Wutip’s intensity to 55m/s.

        蝴蝶能夠達到五級颱風,比幾乎任何其他一個五級颱風都更困難、更神奇——蝴蝶達到五級颱風時,身處的海溫不足27度,OHC僅僅在1535之間。唯一有利於蝴蝶的環境因素是高空急流提供的超強極向流出。在如此惡劣的環境下,想維持強度都不容易。然而蝴蝶非但沒有減弱,反而更加重新增強,最終爆發增強至五級颱風完成夢想——這絕對是一個徹徹底底的奇蹟。
       Wutip’s journey to reach Category 5 is more difficult and more magical than almost any other Category 5 Typhoon ever – when Wutip reached Category 5 Typhoon, her surrounding SST was below 27 degrees, OHC was only between 15 and 35. The only factor that is favourable to Wutip’s development is the extremely robust poleward outflow into a jet stream to the north. Within such unfavourable environment, even maintaining the same intensity is difficult to do. But Wutip not only did not weaken, instead she reintensified against all odds, at last explosively intensified into a Category 5 Typhoon and made her dream come true – this is no doubt an absolute miracle.

sstD_HT20190225.png
225日西北太平洋海溫圖,蝴蝶當時身處的海溫不足27
Sea surface temperature (SST) graph of Northwest Pacific Ocean on 25[sup]th[/sup]February, Wutip’s surrounding SST was below 27 degrees

Screenshot 2019-04-23 at 11.27.32 AM.png
225日西北太平洋海洋熱含量圖,蝴蝶當時身處的海溫不足35
Ocean heat content (OHC) graph of Northwest Pacific Ocean on 25[sup]th[/sup]February, Wutip’s surrounding OHC was below 35

Screenshot 2019-04-23 at 7.36.12 PM.png
225日下午,高空急流給蝴蝶提供超強極向流出,蝴蝶身處的高空輻散達到40
25[sup]th[/sup]February afternoon, Wutip enjoyed extremely robust poleward outflow into a jet stream to the north, Wutip’s surrounding upper air divergence reached 40

Screenshot 2019-04-23 at 8.06.30 PM.png
225日下午,蝴蝶身處的低空輻合達到40
25[sup]th[/sup]February afternoon, Wutip’s surrounding lower air convergence reached 40
幸福和快樂是結局......一起寫我們的結局......
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 楼主| 发表于 2019-4-25 12:52 | 显示全部楼层
第九章:無憾結局
Chapter 9: The Ending With No Regrets

        可惜,由於蝴蝶身處的環境實在無法支撐她維持五級颱風的強度,因此蝴蝶很快便再次開始減弱。蝴蝶的對流大幅減弱,到了下午8時,她的德法值已經急速降至LG+WMG=T5.5。因此,JTWC將蝴蝶降格為130knots四級颱風,蝴蝶的五級颱風僅僅維持了一報。但這一報五級颱風,已經足以改變歷史。
       Unfortunately, as Wutip’s surrounding environment was unable to support her to maintain Category 5 intensity, therefore Wutip soon started weakening again. Wutip’s convection dramatically weakened, at 8:00pm, Wutip\'s Dvorak T-Value has already rapidly dropped to LG+WMG=T5.5. Therefore, JTWC downgraded Wutip to 130knots Category 4 Typhoon, Wutip’s Category 5 Typhoon position only sustained for one warning. But this one warning of Category 5 Typhoon is already enough to change history.

20190225.1200.hm8.ir.BD.02WWUTIP.140kts-918mb.jpg
225日晚上,蝴蝶開始減弱,德法值迅速降至LG+WMG=T5.5
25[sup]th[/sup]February night, Wutip started weakening, her Dvorak T-Value rapidly dropped to LG+WMG=T5.5

        然而當各大氣象局認為蝴蝶將會繼續高速減弱之時,這隻頑強的蝴蝶居然又突然停止減弱。226日凌晨,蝴蝶的對流甚至短暫重新增強,一度再次圍上合格的B環和不合格的W環,德法值再次上升至B+OW=T6.0!之後,雖然蝴蝶的對流再次稍微減弱,但風眼仍然非常清晰。因此JTWC沒有迅速下調蝴蝶的強度,一直到226日下午都繼續將蝴蝶的強度維持在四級颱風。JMA甚至完全沒有下調蝴蝶的強度,認為蝴蝶一直到226日下午都仍然處於105knots的巔峰強度。
       But at the moment when all meteorology agencies believe that Wutip will continue rapidly weakening, this tenacious butterfly suddenly stopped weakening. On 26[sup]th[/sup]February midnight, Wutip’s convection even shortly reintensified, she once again encircled a B-ring that fulfilled width requirements and a W-ring that did not fulfill width requirements for a short time, her Dvorak T-Value rose back up to B+OW=T6.0! Afterwards, despite that Wutip’s convection again gradually weakened, but her eye still remained very clear. Therefore, JTWC did not rapidly downgrade Wutip’s intensity, they kept Wutip’s intensity at Category 4 until 26[sup]th[/sup]February afternoon. JMA did not even downgrade Wutip’s intensity at all, and believed that Wutip kept her peak intensity of 105knots all the time until 26[sup]th[/sup]February afternoon.

20190225.2000.hm8.ir.BD.02WWUTIP.130kts-930mb.jpg
226日凌晨,蝴蝶一度重新圍上合格的B環和不合格的W環,德法值再次上升至B+OW=T6.0
26[sup]th[/sup]February midnight, Wutip once again encircled a B-ring that fulfilled width requirements and a W-ring that did not fulfill width requirements for a short time, her Dvorak T-Value rose back up to B+OW=T6.0

79_105096_25f633a0964e600.jpg
226日下午,蝴蝶仍然維持一個非常清晰的風眼
26[sup]th[/sup]February afternoon, Wutip still remained having a very clear eye

        但是,到了226日晚上,隨著蝴蝶移入西風帶的南端,蝴蝶身處的垂直風切大幅上升,導致蝴蝶的風眼開始迅速崩潰。下午8時,JTWC將蝴蝶降格為三級颱風,HKOCMA皆將蝴蝶降格為強颱風,JMA也終於開始下調蝴蝶的強度。僅六小時後,隨著蝴蝶的高層風眼徹底消失,JTWC進一步將蝴蝶降格為二級颱風。
       However, at 26[sup]th[/sup]February night, as Wutip reached the southern edge of the westerlies, Wutip’s surrounding vertical wind shear significantly increased, causing Wutip’s eye to start rapidly collapsing. At 8:00pm, JTWC downgraded Wutip to a Category 3 Typhoon, HKO and CMA both downgraded Wutip to Severe Typhoon, JMA also finally started to downgrade Wutip’s intensity. Only 6 hours later, as Wutip’s upper-level eye completely disappeared, JTWC further downgraded Wutip to Category 2 Typhoon.

Screenshot 2019-04-23 at 11.07.07 PM.png
227日凌晨,蝴蝶身處的垂直風切變大幅上升至25knots左右
27[sup]th[/sup]February midnight, Wutip’s surrounding vertical wind shear significantly increased to around 25knots

79_93664_532564323f0f67a.jpg
227日凌晨,蝴蝶的高層風眼徹底消失,JTWC將蝴蝶降格為二級颱風
27[sup]th[/sup]February midnight, Wutip’s upper-level eye completely disappeared, JTWC downgraded Wutip to Category 2 Typhoon

        227日,隨著蝴蝶身處的垂直風切變繼續上升至40knots左右,蝴蝶的結構加速瓦解。下午2時,JTWC將蝴蝶降格為一級颱風。六小時後,隨著無情的垂直風切變將蝴蝶的對流切離殆盡,JTWC進一步將蝴蝶降格為熱帶風暴,HKOCMA也將蝴蝶降格為強烈熱帶風暴。
        On 27[sup]th[/sup]February, as Wutip’s surrounding vertical wind shear continued increasing up to around 40knots, Wutip’s structure increasingly rapidly disintegrated. At 2:00pm, JTWC downgraded Wutip to Category 1 Typhoon. 6 hours later, as the ruthless vertical wind shear destroyed almost all of Wutip’s convection, JTWC further downgraded Wutip to Tropical Storm, HKO and CMA also downgraded Wutip to Severe Tropical Storm.

79_105096_38dbb10399e199d.jpg
227日晚上,極強的垂直風切變將蝴蝶的對流切離殆盡,JTWC進一步將蝴蝶降格為熱帶風暴
27[sup]th[/sup]February night, the extremely strong vertical wind shear destroyed almost all of Wutip’s convection, JTWC further downgraded Wutip to Tropical Storm

        228日,蝴蝶餘下的所有對流都被垂直風切變徹底摧毀。228日早上,HKO將蝴蝶降格為熱帶低氣壓,隨後JMACMACWB也將蝴蝶降格為熱帶低氣壓並停止發佈。下午8時,JTWC將蝴蝶降格為熱帶低氣壓,並發布最後警報(FW)。但之後,蝴蝶殘餘的LLCC仍然繼續緩慢北上,一直移到了19N的緯度。直到32日下午,FNMOC終於將蝴蝶撤編,為蝴蝶傳奇的一生寫下句號。
        On 28[sup]th[/sup]February, all of Wutip’s remaining convection were completely destroyed by the vertical wind shear. 28[sup]th[/sup]February morning, HKO downgraded Wutip to Tropical Depression, later JMA, CMA and CWB also downgraded Wutip to Tropical Depression, and stopped issuing warnings for her. At 8:00pm, JTWC downgraded Wutip to Tropical Depression, and issued Final Warning (FW). But after that, the LLCC of Wutip’s remnants continued slowly moving northwards, all the way to a latitude of 19N. Until 2[sup]nd[/sup]March afternoon, FNMOC finally stopped issuing for Wutip, writing a full stop to Wutip’s legendary life.

79_105061_0c9cdbf2c02ddae.jpg
蝴蝶的遺照
The last picture of Wutip
幸福和快樂是結局......一起寫我們的結局......
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 楼主| 发表于 2019-4-25 12:58 | 显示全部楼层
尾聲:奇蹟的意義
Epilogue: The Meaning of Miracle

        在海溫低於27度、OHC低於35的惡劣環境下破繭而出爆發增強,在寒冬二月登上五級颱風的寶座,蝴蝶的一生絕對是一個完美的奇蹟。就如老干部所說:「這個月出一個拔地而起的五級颱風,好比沙漠裡突然發了大洪水,石頭縫裡突然長出參天大樹,是異乎尋常的。」蝴蝶不僅強度上打破了紀錄,她的生命時長達到812小時,也是打破二月紀錄的!蝴蝶的氣旋能量指數(ACE)達到了33.105——這不僅遠遠打破1970南施的舊紀錄21.21,甚至超過了2016年所有颱風的ACE——包括根據JTWC為西北太平洋史上最高強度颱風之一、達到170knots的莫蘭蒂!蝴蝶打破了幾乎所有有可能打破的二月颱風紀錄,連老干部也說道:「這樣一種好處佔盡的破紀錄方式,我沒有見過。
        Breaking through the cocoon and explosively intensifying in unfavourable environment of SST below 27 degrees and OHC below 35, reaching the throne of Category 5 Typhoon in the cold February, Wutip’s life is absolutely a perfect miracle. As Typhoon Forum administrator Lao Ganbu said, “aCategory5TyphoonrisingfromthegroundinFebruary,islikeafloodinadesert,atreegrowingfromthecrackofastone,itisabsolutelyextraordinary”. Wutip not only broke records in intensity, her lifetime of 8 days and 12 hours is also record breaking for February typhoons! Wutip’s accumulative cyclone energy (ACE) reached 33.105 – this not only broke 1970 Nancy’s old record of 21.21 by far, it even exceeded the ACE of every single typhoon in 2016 – including the 170knots Meranti, one of the strongest typhoons ever in Northwest Pacific Ocean according to JTWC! Wutip broke almost every single possible record for February typhoons, even Lao Ganbu said that, “I have never seen any typhoon that could break every single possible record like this in my whole life.”

        見證過蝴蝶這個完美的奇蹟,感受到見證奇蹟的奇幻感覺後,我不禁心想,為何見證奇蹟的這個過程能夠讓我感到如此美妙?到底見證奇蹟對我們來說的意義是什麼?zhu為此寫了一段非常具啟發性的話,他是這樣想的:
        After witnessing the perfect miracle of Wutip, and experiencing the magical feeling of witnessing miracles, I started to think, why is the process of witnessing miracles so amazing for us? What is the meaning of witnessing miracles to us? A typhoon forum moderator zhu wrote some very inspiring words of wisdom, this is what he thinks:

        打破紀錄的見證無疑是讓人暢快的。像熱帶氣旋的活動實在是有太多的條條框框,即便是風迷的想像其實也是局限在很小的一個樣本空間裡。而紀錄的突破就打破了想像力的邊界,這樣的快樂就好像發現了思想和身體自助支配權的自 由主義人士,我們不再需要被告知什麼可以做什麼不可以做,一切都是不再受限的。陳舊的思想被解放後再看總有諸多如夢似幻的體驗,比如我所看到的,2012年的達維巔峰雲圖像是放錯了地方,懷疑是地球底圖bug;現在的蝴蝶就像是放錯了時間,若不是我親自見證,看見這幾天的雲圖會首先想到圖上的日期是不是被編輯過了。當然,和滄海桑田的地質尺度比起來,一個人的生命還是太過渺小。所以能夠見證極端事件的出現,就像是能將自己的壽命延長到極端事件的重現期的長度一樣,轉瞬之間體會到滄桑之快,不必再有吾生之須臾之嘆,是很好的。」——zhu
        “The feeling of witnessing records being broken is stunning. The development of tropical cyclones has way too many constraints, even the imaginations of typhoon fans are confined by a very small box of reality. But the breaking of records can break open these boundaries of imagination, this kind of happiness is like a liberalist discovering his freedo m, we don’t need to be told what we can door what we can’t do,everything is unrestricted anymore.For example, the imagery of 2012 Damrey seems to have been put at the wrong place, looks like a bug in the imagery background. Now Wutip seems to have been put at the wrong time, if I hadn’t experienced this myself, I would have thought that the date on the satellite imageries has been edited.Compared to the lifetime of the Earth,a person’s life is way too short. Therefore, to be able to experience extreme events, it seems like we could extend our lifes to the recurrence period of these extreme events, and experience the vicissitudes of the world in the blink of an eye. Being able to witness these miraculous events in our lifetime, and leave no regrets, is very amazing.” – zhu

        而我覺得,見證奇蹟的意義在於,讓自己感到奇蹟是觸手可及的,是可以發生在我生命當中的。無論是看颱風,還是看足球,當我見證這些奇蹟在我眼前發生之時,我都不禁幻想,也許未來有一天,這樣的奇蹟也能發生在我的身上?就如蝴蝶在二月寒冬中達到五級颱風一樣,就如阿古路補射絕殺為曼城奪得英超冠軍一樣,有一天我也可能可以經歷夢想成真的一刻——得到在香港天文台工作的機會,或者聽到心愛的女生在我耳邊說一聲:「我愛你」……
        While I believe the meaning of witnessing miracles is that, it allows me to see that miracles are tangible, they could also appear in my own life. Whether it is watching typhoons or watching football, when I witness these miracles happen in front of my eyes, I just can’t stop myself wondering, maybe one day in the future, a miracle like this could also happen in my life? Just like Wutip reaching Category 5 Typhoon in the February cold winter, just like Aguero scoring a last minute goal to win Manchester City the Premier League title, maybe one day I could also experience a dream come true – getting my dream job of working in Hong Kong Observatory, or hearing the girl I love whisper into my ear, “I love you”…

        當然,其實大部分時候奇蹟都沒有發生。在蝴蝶出現之前,有多少個二月颱風曾經幻想過衝擊五級颱風?然而他們沒有一個成功——當中大部分遠遠未能接近目標,有一兩個幾乎成功了,但最終還是差之毫釐。曼城夢想能夠奪得歐聯冠軍,然而至今仍然未能成功。就在上個星期,曼城幾乎創造奇蹟了——史達寧幾乎憑著補時絕殺將曼城帶入歐聯四強,可惜這個絕殺最終卻被VAR無情地拒絕。而我的生命中,也經歷過無數次失敗,聽見過無數次拒絕,感受過無數次心碎……
        Of course, most of the time miracles did not happen. Before Wutip appeared, how many February typhoons dreamed of becoming a Category 5? But none of them succeeded – most of them never even came close, a few of them almost succeeded, but at last still ended up being so close but so far. Manchester City dream of winning the Champions League, but till now we still have not succeeded yet. Just last week, City almost created a miracle – Sterling almost brought City into the Champions League semi-finals with his last minute goal, unfortunately this last minute goal was cruelly denied by VAR. In my own life, I have also experienced countless failures, heard countless rejections, went through countless heartbreaks…

        但是,我還是相信總有一天,奇蹟會發生的。西北太平洋經過一百幾十年的等待,終於成功造就一個二月五級颱風,完成每個月都出現過五級颱風的偉大成就。曼城經過44年的等待,終於在2012年再一次贏得英國頂級聯賽冠軍。我相信我也總會有一天,能夠見證奇蹟發生在我的身上——會有一個女生願意對我說一聲「我愛你」,願意與我挽手跳一齣完美的舞,願意與我一起寫下童話般幸福快樂的結局……
        But I still believe that one day, the miracle will happen. After hundreds of years of waiting, Northwest Pacific Ocean finally succeeded in creating a February Category 5 Typhoon, completing the mighty achievement of having a Category 5 Typhoon in every single month. After 44 years of waiting, in 2012, Manchester City finally won a top-tier league title once again. I believe that one day, I will also witness a miracle happening in my life – a girl will say to me “I love you”, she will hold my hand and dance the perfect dance with me, we will together write our fairy-tale-like happy ever after ending…

Screenshot 2019-04-24 at 11.35.10 PM.png
幸福和快樂是結局......一起寫我們的結局......
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 楼主| 发表于 2019-4-25 13:03 | 显示全部楼层
後記
Postscript

        經過超過一年半,我終於再次寫了一篇颱風回顧!在過去一年半,我不是太忙,就是缺乏靈感,所以一直未能找到動力動筆寫颱風回顧。直到蝴蝶的出現,這個神奇的奇蹟終於讓我找回靈感,找回寫颱風回顧的動力,因此終於寫了這篇全新颱風回顧!由於我現在在美國的康乃爾大學讀書,為了讓我的朋友都能夠看懂我的回顧,所以我選擇了繼四年前的美莎克回顧後,再一次寫一篇雙語回顧!雖然我現在的英文比當年有所進步,但我始終不是一個專業的翻譯家,很多地方我的英文翻譯都可能較為牽強(話說這裡我就不懂如何翻譯牽強),敬請原諒。相信未來幾年內,我的大部分颱風回顧都會是雙語回顧!
        After more than a year and a half, I finally wrote another typhoon review! In the last one and a half years, I was either too busy or lacked any inspiration, therefore there was a long time when I couldn’t find the incentive to write another typhoon review. Until Wutip appeared, this amazing miracle finally sparked inspiration into me, and helped me find the power to write another typhoon review again, therefore finally I’ve written this new typhoon review! As I am now studying in Cornell University in US, in order to let my friends understand my typhoon review, therefore I decided to write another bilingual review, the first one since my Maysak review 4 years ago! Despite that my English has improved since 4 years ago, I am still not a professional translator, so in a lot of places my English translation might not make too much sense, I hope you’ll understand. I believe that in the next few years, most of my typhoon reviews will also be written bilingually!

        感謝各位颱風論壇網友在追擊帖和機構發布帖的發言和存檔。特別感謝@zhu @老干部 ,你們在颱風概論版中啟發人心的話給予了我巨大的靈感!感謝我在康乃爾大學的教授,尤其是Wysocki教授,感謝你教導了我很多氣象的知識以及使用Python的技能(我的蝴蝶強度圖以及ACE的計算都是用Python製作的)。感謝我身邊的朋友JulianJackHarrisonAidanCarsonJulieBrendan、Kathryn、WillChristine,感謝你們的支持、鼓勵和陪伴!特別感謝Harrison製作的德法分析Excel程式!
        Thank you to all the friends in Typhoon Forum for all the things you said and information you stored. Especially thank you zhu and Lao Ganbu for your words of wisdom, these words gave me so much inspiration! Thank you to my professors in Cornell University, especially thank you Professor Wysocki for teaching me so much about atmospheric sciences and also how to use Python (the Fix Time Intensity graph on the cover page and the ACE calculations are all created using Python). Thank you to my friends Julian, Jack, Harrison, Aidan, Carson, Julie, Brendan, Kathryn, Will and Christine, thank you for your support, your encouragement and your care! Shoutout to Harrison for creating an amazing Dvorak Technique Excel program!

        未來三周內,我將會為其中一課寫一篇關於超強颱風山竹的論文。之後,在暑假當中,我打算將這一篇論文轉化為一篇完整颱風回顧,預期六月至八月之間完成一篇全新的山竹回顧!敬請期待!
        In the next three weeks, I will write a final paper on Super Typhoon Mangkhut for one of my classes. After that, during my summer holiday, I plan to turn this final paper into a complete typhoon review. I predict that I will finish this brand new Mangkhut review between June and August! Stay tuned!
幸福和快樂是結局......一起寫我們的結局......
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