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[追击雷暴] 美国中西部5.17-5.29龙卷风爆发 21世纪最强序列爆发之一,已致8人死亡 已确认:EF4:2

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强台风

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 楼主| 发表于 2019-5-26 15:56 | 显示全部楼层
爆发之前,SREF给出惊天地泣鬼神的90%龙卷风概率,大半个OK都落在这个区域内,严峻形势不言而喻
QQ图片20190526154413.gif

PDS outlook发布后两小时,爆发正式开始,两个超单在TX panhandle区域的paducah小镇附近快速形成,超单一形成回转就快速成型,与数值预计的爆发时间,地点,和发展速度近乎相同,地面chser报告有rope tornado降下
QQ图片20190526154419.jpg QQ图片20190526154424.jpg
随后风暴回转快速消失,其东侧的另一个超单又开始出现快速回转,crescent TX报告confirm tornado,OK电视台直播显示巨大的漏斗云在风力发电厂附近盘旋
QQ图片20190526154706.jpg
QQ图片20190526154712.jpg

风暴移动到mulhall OK的时候降下壮观至极的双龙卷风,两个龙卷风之间距离不足1km
QQ图片20190526154854.jpg QQ图片20190526154850.jpg
随后的半小时里大量超单开始爆发,但很多都是沿着干线分布,数值预期的暖区超单集群爆发并没有出现,此外爆发的超单回转虽然明显,但是来得快去的也快,OK西部的超单也有快速合并变成飑线的趋势,爆发三小时后,似乎走向已经和数值预测的有了偏差,也达不到这次爆发所具有的上限潜力
终于一个孤立超单在OK西部发展后,强龙卷风在mangum OK快速着陆,地面报告wedge tornado
QQ图片20190526155023.jpg QQ图片20190526155032.jpg QQ图片20190526155246.jpg QQ图片20190526155256.jpg
地面显示龙卷风形态非常棒,从初期的wedge type逐渐向cone type最后发展到long rope tornado,演变极像2003 manchester SD F4,前期也极像2013.5.19的shawnee OK EF4
龙卷风出现时极其接近raxpol雷达,得到了绝佳的观测机会
QQ图片20190526155459.jpg QQ图片20190526155503.jpg
此外DOW也幸运地追踪了这个龙卷风,初期扫描显示龙卷风具有90-95m/s的速度对,随后被纠正为140m/s,AGL200米上风速高达180mph,这个范围落在了EF4的区间,DOW显示在经过mangum北部几分钟前龙卷风达到巅峰。这是DOW雷达观测自2013年bennington tornado以来最强的速度对,也是当天第一个有violent潜质的龙卷风
QQ图片20190526160622.jpg
随后风暴和南侧爆发的新生超单合并,Hook落入雨幕之中,预报中的Long-track tornado并没有实现
QQ图片20190526155656.jpg
发白的NORT显示雨幕中可能藏了一个wedge tornado
QQ图片20190526155751.jpg
so l just let you go
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 楼主| 发表于 2019-5-26 16:07 | 显示全部楼层
mangum tornado消散后1小时,OK境内几乎全部的超单已经失去了discrete的特征,向linear storm转变,第一个PDS观察区已经破产。干线附近的TX西部超单仍然活跃,PDS第二个观察区继续生效
midland TX一度出现两个回转,地面观察到cone tornado,这个龙卷风被评级为EF2,卷起了几个mobile home,损坏了一些油罐。随后两个回转合并变成一个大的回转,随即当天第一个PDS warning发出,地面观测到大型wedge
QQ图片20190526155842.jpg
QQ图片20190526160208.jpg

QQ图片20190526160245.jpg
另一些离散超单在TX中西部爆发,每个超单都展现了典型,非常漂亮的雷达特征,但是Hook却是十分的弱
QQ图片20190526160410.jpg
QQ图片20190526160530.jpg

QQ图片20190526160636.jpg
QQ图片20190526160410.jpg
so l just let you go
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 楼主| 发表于 2019-5-26 17:21 | 显示全部楼层
在接近爆发的尾声,OK东北部的QLCS东移时发展出一个罕见的derbis ball,这个hook在经过peggy OK之后迅速增强扩大,巅峰时碎屑球大小一度达到4.7km甚至接近5km,对比几年前的moore OK EF5和vilonia Ar EF4,后两者的数据都是在3.2km左右,超单在巅峰期间雷达上还出现了明显的速度折叠,这似乎以前都符合一个violent tornado的雷达表现,一些追风者高呼EF4甚至EF5要来了。龙卷风在巅峰后的十几分钟内就袭击了小镇leach,然而日出后的景象却匪夷所思——小镇内的大多数房屋并没有被夷平,受损严重的几幢也只是失去了外墙和屋顶,而对于林地的破坏以及龙卷风雷达巅峰所位于的地方也远达不到EF3或更高的评级,这种“雷达装逼”的特征在今年已经不是头一遭,一个月前的hamilton MS EF2就是另外一个很好的例子,当然,不能否认这个龙卷风可能在林地具有高强度,也有可能较强的风速没能降到近地面,但是雷达数据和实际破坏相差两个等级甚至更大在以前也是较少见的
QQ图片20190526170634.jpg QQ图片20190526170640.jpg QQ图片20190526170625.jpg QQ图片20190526170615.jpg QQ图片20190526170758.jpg QQ图片20190526170807.jpg
最终调查下来龙卷风走了大约40km,最大宽度2.5km,这个宽度应该是今年目前为止最宽的龙卷风了,这是唯一和雷达表现能有所契合的地方
本体照一张
QQ图片20190526170730.jpg
so l just let you go
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发表于 2019-5-26 22:54 | 显示全部楼层

SPC:moderate risk,15%

SPC最新的Day 1 Tornado outlook,有10%以上機會發生EF2或以上級別的龍捲風(valid from 26/5 1300Z to 27/5 1200Z)


SPC AC 261256

   Day 1 Convective Outlook  
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
   0756 AM CDT Sun May 26 2019

   Valid 261300Z - 271200Z

   ...THERE IS A MODERATE RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS EASTERN
   COLORADO...WESTERN KANSAS...AND THE OKLAHOMA AND TEXAS PANHANDLES...

   ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM THE OHIO
   VALLEY TO THE MID-ATLANTIC STATES...

   ...SUMMARY...
   Severe thunderstorms are likely today into tonight across much of
   the central Plains and southern High Plains, with all aspects of
   severe weather expected. Additional severe thunderstorms are
   possible across the lower Ohio Valley to the Mid-Atlantic Coast,
   accompanied by a risk for severe wind and hail.

   ...Central Plains/southern High Plains...
   A Moderate Risk has been introduced for the region with an eastward
   expansion of the Enhanced Risk. Large hail and several tornadoes,
   possibly a couple strong, are expected particularly from mid/late
   afternoon through early/mid evening, with the damaging wind risk
   also increasing this evening as storms progress east-northeastward.

   A readily evident shortwave trough/speed max per water vapor imagery
   centered over northern Baja Mexico early this morning will quickly
   eject northeastward with this lead shortwave trough taking on an
   increasingly negative tilt as it reaches the south-central High
   Plains by early evening. This will be in tandem with increasingly
   strong southwesterly mid-level winds (45-60 kt in the 700-500 mb
   layer). After multiple days of semi-extensive convection and
   multiple sub-regional areas of more notable overturning,
   strengthening southwesterly trajectories via southwest U.S./northern
   Mexico will lead to a reestablishment and broadening of
   northeastward-advancing elevated mixed layer across the
   central/southern High Plains today.

   Moisture return to the deepening surface trough across the central
   High Plains is already underway beneath north/northeastward
   advecting warm elevated mixed-layer air. Models indicate that this
   will contribute to moderate to large CAPE across much of the High
   Plains, and into the warm sector of the developing cyclone across
   the central Plains.

   There will likely be a corridor of moderate to strong boundary layer
   destabilization across the Texas/Oklahoma Panhandles into eastern
   Colorado by mid to late afternoon, which will be sufficient to
   support propagation of thunderstorm activity off the Rockies into
   the High Plains. In the presence of strengthening shear, the
   environment is expected to become conducive to intense supercells
   with potential for large to very large hail. Although low-level
   hodographs may initially be modest in length and curvature, a few
   tornadoes appear likely, particularly from the Colorado/Kansas
   border area eastward along an effective front across western Kansas,
   as well as southward into the Panhandle region.

   Low-to-mid-tropospheric winds, particularly within the lowest 3-4 km
   AGL, are likely to notably increase this evening. Various global
   guidance suggests a steady strengthening of 700 mb winds (50+ kt)
   from the Texas Panhandle/northwest Oklahoma across much of Kansas.
   Pending convective mode, this could increase the tornado threat
   early this evening, while also contributing to upscale growth into
   one or more forward-propagating clusters with a heightened damaging
   wind risk, most probable across Kansas/southern Nebraska, but
   perhaps also the eastern Texas Panhandle into western Oklahoma.

   ...Northern High Plains...
   Isolated/widely scattered severe thunderstorms capable of large hail
   and locally strong winds are expected across the region particularly
   late this afternoon through evening, with upwards of 30-40 kt
   effective shear and moderate buoyancy supportive of a combination of
   supercells and multicells.

   ...Lower Ohio Valley to the Mid-Atlantic coast...
   An eastward-moving MCS/MCV will continue to cross the upper Ohio
   Valley this morning. This feature may help to focus intensifying
   development downstream by afternoon. Otherwise, models indicate that
   seasonably high boundary layer moisture content ahead of the
   southward advancing front will become characterized by moderate CAPE
   by this afternoon. This will support potential for organizing
   clusters of thunderstorm activity, aided by forcing and shear
   associated with the perturbations progressing around the northern
   periphery of the subtropical ridge. Flow including 30-40+ kt in the
   700-500 mb layer may be sufficient to support occasional isolated
   supercells, but severe hail and wind appear the primary hazards in
   the presence of generally weak low-level hodographs.

   ..Guyer/Broyles.. 05/26/2019
tornado 1.gif
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发表于 2019-5-27 09:52 | 显示全部楼层

Tornado Watch no.259

SEL9

   URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED
   Tornado Watch Number 259
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
   755 PM CDT Sun May 26 2019

   The NWS Storm Prediction Center has issued a

   * Tornado Watch for portions of
     Northwest Oklahoma
     Texas Panhandle

   * Effective this Sunday night and Monday morning from 755 PM
     until 200 AM CDT.

   * Primary threats include...
     A few tornadoes likely with a couple intense tornadoes possible
     Widespread damaging winds and isolated significant gusts to 90
       mph likely
     Scattered large hail and isolated very large hail events to 2
       inches in diameter possible

   SUMMARY...Bowing squall line will move northeast across the
   Panhandles this evening, with a discrete supercell or two trailing
   south of the line. Damaging winds should be the most widespread
   hazard, but tornadoes and large hail are possible as well.

   The tornado watch area is approximately along and 60 statute miles
   east and west of a line from 45 miles west southwest of Lubbock TX
   to 110 miles northeast of Borger TX. For a complete depiction of the
   watch see the associated watch outline update (WOUS64 KWNS WOU9).

   PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

   REMEMBER...A Tornado Watch means conditions are favorable for
   tornadoes and severe thunderstorms in and close to the watch
   area. Persons in these areas should be on the lookout for
   threatening weather conditions and listen for later statements
   and possible warnings.
tornado 4.png
   Probability of 2 or more tornadoes    
Mod (60%)
   Probability of 1 or more strong (EF2-EF5) tornadoes   
Mod (30%)
   Probability of 10 or more severe wind events   
High (80%)
   Probability of 1 or more wind events > 65 knots   
High (70%)
   Probability of 10 or more severe hail events   
Mod (40%)
   Probability of 1 or more hailstones > 2 inches   
Mod (30%)
   Probability of 6 or more combined severe hail/wind events   
High (>95%)
tornado 2.gif
tornado 3.gif
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论坛版主-副热带高压

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发表于 2019-5-27 12:25 | 显示全部楼层
在接近爆发的尾声,OK东北部的QLCS东移时发展出一个罕见的derbis ball,这个hook在经过peggy OK之后迅速增强扩大,巅峰时碎屑球大小一度达到4.7km甚至接近5km,对比几年前的moore OK EF5和vilonia ...

.Northeast of Pleasant Farms to southwest Midland County...

Rating:                 EF-3
Estimated peak wind:    160 mph
Path Length (statute):  5.75 miles
Path width (maximum):   225 yards
Fatalities:             0
Injuries:               0

State date:             05/20/2019
Start time:             5:23 pm CDT
Start location:         9 miles SE of Odessa
Start lat/lon:          31.759713 / -102.238016

End date:               05/20/2019
End time:               5:38 pm CDT
End location:           11 miles SE of Odessa
End_lat/lon:            31.761501 / -102.23861
QQ图片20190527123607.jpg
5.20还有一个值得一提的龙卷是TX西南部的这个160mph的High end EF3,根据Pump jacks给的,从航拍可见地面强劲的冲刷。
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发表于 2019-5-27 16:12 | 显示全部楼层

SREF:75%

SREF:27/5 2100Z的龍捲風生成機率可達75%
SREF tornado.gif
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发表于 2019-5-27 17:50 | 显示全部楼层
顺便说下5/20德州160MPH的高端EF3是因为pump jack破坏而获得的评级,这是应用了2010/5/14的Notrees tornado相关研究的结果。
龙卷本身处在极为荒凉的土地上,其冲刷表明龙卷显然具有很高强度,但如果完全按照传统EF制DI指标基本不可能获得这个评级。去年EF制大会上提出的一些可能的新DI指标中就有考虑这一类物件,目的是为了填补龙卷在荒地上难以获得和强度相对应的评级这个问题。
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 楼主| 发表于 2019-5-27 17:53 | 显示全部楼层
mangum OK tornado美照,龙卷风在一些时候表现的极像2012 rago KS tornado。有不少视频拍摄到龙卷风把房子撕碎,拔起电线杆,具有不俗的破坏力和转速
QQ图片20190526160608.jpg
雷达数据


QQ图片20190527174516.jpg

下面几张破坏照是相当惊人的,龙卷风在后期把一幢大型房屋彻底扫平,另一幢房屋也被扫平,地面上留下了不弱的冲刷痕迹
QQ图片20190527175057.jpg QQ图片20190527175103.jpg QQ图片20190527175107.jpg QQ图片20190527175110.jpg
根据目前的调查,mangum仅被给予EF2的评级,无论NWS NORMAN采用何种说辞,可都难逃玩忽职守,不认真调查之罪名,仅从上面几张图来看,mangum的破坏明显不是一个普通的EF2龙卷风可以做出来的,甚至也不是一些低端EF3做得出来的,然而NWS这样草草了事,为自己开脱的无耻作风也饱受追风者和龙卷风爱好者的诟病,从哪个方面来看,Mangum都值得一个更高的等级,而NORMAN迟早会为自己的愚蠢和失职买单
so l just let you go
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 楼主| 发表于 2019-5-27 18:18 | 显示全部楼层
5.20预测的历史级别爆发破产之后,5.21历史级别的大槽沿着密西西比河向东北方向滑行,先后经过CO,WY,随后再折向偏东方向运动,位于急流出口区的MO,KS,NE东部等地区切变条件良好,尽管在前一天的对流爆发和稍早前形成的强烈的MCS的冲刷下,热量已经所剩无几,但是午后-傍晚仍然有较小的超单沿着急流以超过40mph的速度向北偏东方向快速运动,不少降下了龙卷风
junction city KS
QQ图片20190527180902.jpg QQ图片20190527180928.jpg

QQ图片20190527181455.jpg
topeka KS
QQ图片20190527181357.jpg
marshfield MO
QQ图片20190527181434.jpg
rossiville KS
QQ图片20190527181551.jpg
webster KS
QQ图片20190527181641.jpg
effingham KS,这个龙卷风是相当上照的
QQ图片20190527181551.jpg QQ图片20190527181745.jpg QQ图片20190527181741.jpg
so l just let you go
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