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[2019] 墨西哥湾北部一级飓风“巴利”(02L.Barry) - 北大首飓,登陆路易斯安那州 - NHC:65KT

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发表于 2019-7-8 20:46:23 | 显示全部楼层 |阅读模式
本帖最后由 327 于 2019-7-18 22:00 编辑

2019070812,   , BEST,   0, 331N,  837W,  15, 1011, DB,  34, NEQ,    0,    0,    0,    0, 1013,  150,  80,   0,   0,   L,   0,    ,   0,   0,     INVEST, S,  0,    ,    0,    0,    0,    0, genesis-num, 005, SPAWNINVEST, al762019 to al922019,

20190708.1230.goes-16.ir.92L.INVEST.15kts.1011mb.33.1N.83.7W.100pc.jpg
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1. A trough of low pressure located over central Georgia is forecast to
move southward toward the northeastern Gulf of Mexico, where a broad
area of low pressure is expected to form in a couple of days.  Some
gradual development is possible thereafter and a tropical depression
is likely to form by the end of the week while the low meanders near
the northern Gulf Coast.  Regardless of development, this system has
the potential to produce heavy rainfall along portions of the
northern and eastern U.S. Gulf Coast later this week.  For more
information about the rainfall threat, please see products issued by
your local weather forecast office and the NOAA Weather Prediction
Center.  Interests along the northern Gulf Coast and the Florida
peninsula should monitor the progress of this system.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...10 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...high...80 percent.

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参与人数 1金钱 +3 威望 +3 收起 理由
红豆棒冰冰 + 3 + 3 92L

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City of stars, are you shining just for me?
City of stars, there's so much that I can't see.
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金玉良言

发表于 2019-7-8 21:13:34 | 显示全部楼层
路径图附上
92L.png
2019AL92_4KMIRIMG_201907081230.GIF
2019AL92_4KMSRBDC_201907081230.jpg


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发表于 2019-7-8 21:51:44 | 显示全部楼层

ECMWF报的还是比GFS强不少

ecmwf_mslp_uv850_us_fh0-240.gif
gfs_mslp_uv850_us_fh0-168.gif
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发表于 2019-7-8 23:03:09 | 显示全部楼层
NOUS42 KNHC 081446
REPRPD
WEATHER RECONNAISSANCE FLIGHTS
CARCAH, NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER, MIAMI, FL.
1045 AM EDT MON 08 JULY 2019
SUBJECT: TROPICAL CYCLONE PLAN OF THE DAY (TCPOD)
         VALID 09/1100Z TO 10/1100Z JULY 2019
         TCPOD NUMBER.....19-041

I.  ATLANTIC REQUIREMENTS
    1. NEGATIVE RECONNAISSANCE REQUIREMENTS.
    2. SUCCEEDING DAY OUTLOOK:
       A. POSSIBLE INVEST NEAR 28.0N 85.5W AT 10/1800Z.
       B. POSSIBLE P-3 TDR MISSION AT 11/0000Z.

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发表于 2019-7-9 01:33:00 | 显示全部楼层

NHC:30%/80%

ZCZC MIATWOAT ALL
TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM

Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
200 PM EDT Mon Jul 8 2019

For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:

1. A trough of low pressure located over central Georgia is forecast
to move southward toward the northeastern Gulf of Mexico, where a
broad area of low pressure is expected to form on Wednesday.
Environmental and ocean conditions are forecast to be conducive for
development and a tropical depression is likely to form by the end
of the week while the low moves slowly westward over northern Gulf
of Mexico. Regardless of development, this system has the potential
to produce heavy rainfall along portions of the northern and eastern
U.S. Gulf Coast later this week.  For more information about the
rainfall threat, please see products issued by your local weather
forecast office and the NOAA Weather Prediction Center.  Interests
along the Gulf Coast from the Upper Texas coast to the western
Florida peninsula should monitor the progress of this system.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...30 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...high...80 percent.

Forecaster Stewart
two_atl_2d0.png
two_atl_2d1.png
two_atl_5d0.png
two_atl_5d1.png
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发表于 2019-7-9 08:46:37 | 显示全部楼层

NHC:30%/80%

本帖最后由 炎煌深沉 于 2019-7-9 08:47 编辑

ZCZC MIATWOAT ALL
TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM

Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
800 PM EDT Mon Jul 8 2019

For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:

1. A trough of low pressure located over south-central Georgia is
producing disorganized showers.  This disturbance is expected to
move southward or southwestward during the next day or two, and a
broad area of low pressure is forecast to form over the northeastern
Gulf of Mexico on Wednesday.  Environmental conditions are expected
to be conducive for development and a tropical depression is likely
to form by the end of the week while the low moves slowly westward
across the northern Gulf of Mexico.  Regardless of whether or not a
tropical cyclone develops, this system has the potential to produce
heavy rainfall along portions of the northern and eastern U.S. Gulf
Coast later this week.  For more information about the rainfall
threat, please see products issued by your local weather forecast
office and the NOAA Weather Prediction Center.  Interests along the
Gulf Coast from the Upper Texas coast to the western Florida
peninsula should monitor the progress of this system.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...30 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...high...80 percent.

Forecaster Cangialosi
BFEDBAC6-B55D-4176-9E2A-28BA8077876E.png
4B0FD299-81C4-4890-8031-6F91F92CDEAE.png
6AF50A84-4E60-4F5C-8487-4F7533DA3358.png
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发表于 2019-7-9 14:06:27 | 显示全部楼层

NHC:40%/80%

本帖最后由 炎煌深沉 于 2019-7-9 15:11 编辑

ABNT20 KNHC 090501
TWOAT

Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
200 AM EDT Tue Jul 9 2019

For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:

A trough of low pressure located over southwestern Georgia is
producing disorganized showers.  This disturbance is expected to
move southward or southwestward during the next day or so, and a
broad area of low pressure is forecast to form over the northeastern
Gulf of Mexico on Wednesday.  Once the disturbance is over water,
environmental conditions are expected to be conducive for
development and a tropical depression is likely to form by the end
of the week while the system moves westward across the northern Gulf
of Mexico.  Regardless of whether or not a tropical cyclone
develops, this system has the potential to produce heavy rainfall
along portions of the northern and eastern U.S. Gulf Coast later
this week.  For more information about the rainfall threat, please
see products issued by your local weather forecast office and the
NOAA Weather Prediction Center. Interests along the Gulf Coast from
the Upper Texas coast to the western Florida peninsula should
monitor the progress of this system.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...medium...40 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...high...80 percent.

$$
Forecaster Cangialosi
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发表于 2019-7-9 14:32:10 | 显示全部楼层
本帖最后由 三旋共舞 于 2019-7-9 14:48 编辑

gfs_mslp_pcpn_frzn_us_18.png QQ图片20190709145012.png
或许混个TS

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发表于 2019-7-9 15:10:46 | 显示全部楼层
EC认为可以到c1或以上,影响系统强度主要南落多少,系统越南越东越强,反之则弱,


涡度显示系统已经就快入海,未来关注系统能有多南,这类系统有的像温转热路径,不过由于海温高,直接转热气发展.....
ecmwf_z500_mslp_us_6.png
gulf_cdas1.png
wg8vorZ.gif

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发表于 2019-7-9 19:46:08 | 显示全部楼层

NHC:50%/80%

ZCZC MIATWOAT ALL
TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM

Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
800 AM EDT Tue Jul 9 2019

For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:

1. A broad low pressure system located over the eastern Florida
Panhandle is producing disorganized shower activity. The low is
forecast to move southward to southwestward and emerge over the
northeastern Gulf of Mexico later today.  Once the system is over
water, environmental conditions are expected to be conducive for
tropical cyclone formation, and a tropical depression is likely to
develop by late Wednesday or Thursday while the system moves
westward across the northern Gulf of Mexico.  Regardless of whether
or not a tropical cyclone forms, this system has the potential to
produce heavy rainfall along portions of the northern and eastern
U.S. Gulf Coast later this week.  For more information about the
rainfall threat, please see products issued by your local weather
forecast office and the NOAA Weather Prediction Center. Interests
along the Gulf Coast from the Upper Texas coast to the western
Florida peninsula should monitor the progress of this system.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...medium...50 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...high...80 percent.

Forecaster Stewart
two_atl_2d0.png
two_atl_2d1.png
two_atl_5d0.png
two_atl_5d1.png
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