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[2019] 东太平洋热带风暴“达莉拉”(05E.Dalila) - 编扰一周终获升格

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发表于 2019-7-15 23:00 | 显示全部楼层 |阅读模式
本帖最后由 红豆棒冰冰 于 2019-12-13 21:55 编辑

EP, 97, 2019071512,   , BEST,   0,  91N,  862W,  20, 1008, DB,  34, NEQ,    0,    0,    0,    0, 1010,  120,  40,   0,   0,   E,   0,    ,   0,   0,     INVEST, M,  0,    ,    0,    0,    0,    0, genesis-num, 013, SPAWNINVEST, ep732019 to ep972019,

ZCZC MIATWOEP ALL
TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM

Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
500 AM PDT Mon Jul 15 2019

For the eastern North Pacific...east of 140 degrees west longitude:

1. A westward-moving tropical wave has emerged off the coasts of Costa
Rica and Nicaragua this morning. An area of low pressure is likely
to form in association with this disturbance during the next few
days several hundred miles south of the southern coast of Mexico.
Conditions appear favorable for gradual development of this system
by late week and over the weekend while it moves westward to
west-northwestward at 10 to 15 mph.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...near 0 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...low...30 percent.

Forecaster Latto/Stewart

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发表于 2019-7-16 03:53 | 显示全部楼层
本帖最后由 红豆棒冰冰 于 2019-7-17 21:55 编辑

ZCZC MIATWOEP ALL
TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM

Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1100 AM PDT Mon Jul 15 2019

For the eastern North Pacific...east of 140 degrees west longitude:

1. A westward-moving tropical wave located just west of Costa Rica and
Nicaragua is producing disorganized showers and thunderstorms. An
area of low pressure is likely to form in association with this
disturbance during the next couple of days several hundred miles
south of the southern coast of Mexico. Conditions appear favorable
for gradual development of this system by late this week and over
the weekend while this disturbance moves westward to
west-northwestward at 10 to 15 mph.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...near 0 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...low...30 percent.

Forecaster Latto/Stewart
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发表于 2019-7-16 12:01 | 显示全部楼层
本帖最后由 红豆棒冰冰 于 2019-7-17 21:56 编辑

ZCZC MIATWOEP ALL
TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM

Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
500 PM PDT Mon Jul 15 2019

For the eastern North Pacific...east of 140 degrees west longitude:

1. A tropical wave located over the far eastern part of the basin
roughly 100 miles west of Costa Rica is producing disorganized
showers and thunderstorms.  Environmental conditions are forecast
to become conducive for gradual development later this week, and a
tropical depression could form by the weekend.  The wave is
forecast to move westward to west-northwestward at 10 to 15 mph,
well south of the coast of Mexico.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...near 0 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...medium...40 percent.

Forecaster Blake
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发表于 2019-7-17 05:23 | 显示全部楼层
本帖最后由 红豆棒冰冰 于 2019-7-17 21:57 编辑

ZCZC MIATWOEP ALL
TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM

Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1100 AM PDT Tue Jul 16 2019

For the eastern North Pacific...east of 140 degrees west longitude:

1. A tropical wave located a couple of hundred miles south of
Guatemala continues to produce disorganized cloudiness and showers.
Environmental conditions are forecast to become conducive for
gradual development later this week, and a tropical depression could
form this weekend.  This disturbance is forecast to move westward to
west-northwestward at 10 to 15 mph, well south of the coast of
Mexico.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...near 0 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...medium...50 percent.

Forecaster Brown
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发表于 2019-7-18 03:44 | 显示全部楼层
ZCZC MIATWOEP ALL
TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM

Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1100 AM PDT Wed Jul 17 2019

For the eastern North Pacific...east of 140 degrees west longitude:

1. A tropical wave located several hundred miles southwest of the
Gulf of Tehuantepec is producing a few disorganized showers and
thunderstorms.  Environmental conditions are forecast to become a
little more conducive for gradual development late this week, and a
tropical depression could form over the weekend or early next week.
This disturbance is forecast to move westward to west-northwestward
at 10 to 15 mph, well south of the coast of Mexico.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...near 0 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...medium...40 percent.

2. A large but disorganized area of showers and thunderstorms located
a little more than 1000 miles southwest of the southern tip of the
Baja California peninsula is associated with a tropical wave.
Upper-level winds appear to be somewhat conducive for gradual
development during the next few days while the disturbance moves
west-northwestward at 10 to 15 mph.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...20 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...low...30 percent.

Forecaster Brown
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发表于 2019-7-18 22:45 | 显示全部楼层
ZCZC MIATWOEP ALL
TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM

Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
500 AM PDT Thu Jul 18 2019

For the eastern North Pacific...east of 140 degrees west longitude:

1. A tropical wave located a few hundred miles south-southwest of
Acapulco is producing disorganized showers and thunderstorms.
Environmental conditions are forecast to become more conducive for
gradual development, and a tropical depression could form early
next week. This disturbance is forecast to move westward to
west-northwestward at 10 to 15 mph, well south of the coast of
Mexico.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...near 0 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...medium...50 percent.

2. Disorganized showers and thunderstorms continue in association
with a broad area of low pressure centered about 1350 miles
southwest of the southern tip of the Baja California peninsula.
Upper-level winds appear to be conducive for further development,
and a tropical depression could form during the next two or three
days while the disturbance moves west-northwestward or northwestward
at 10 to 15 mph. After that time, conditions are expected to become
less favorable for development.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...30 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...medium...40 percent.

Forecaster Latto/Brown
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发表于 2019-7-19 21:04 | 显示全部楼层
ZCZC MIATWOEP ALL
TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM

Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
500 AM PDT Fri Jul 19 2019

For the eastern North Pacific...east of 140 degrees west longitude:

1. An area of disturbed weather located several hundred miles south of
Manzanillo, Mexico is associated with a tropical wave.
Environmental conditions could become a little more conducive for
gradual development, and a tropical depression could form early next
week before the system reaches cooler waters.  This disturbance is
forecast to move westward to west-northwestward at 10 to 15 mph,
away from the coast of Mexico.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...10 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...medium...60 percent.

2. A broad area of low pressure located more than 1500 miles southwest
of the southern tip of the Baja California peninsula is producing an
elongated area of showers and thunderstorms.  This system remains
disorganized, and conditions are becoming less conducive for
tropical cyclone formation.  The low is expected to move
west-northwestward or northwestward at 10 to 15 mph.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...20 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...low...30 percent.

Forecaster Pasch
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发表于 2019-7-20 08:31 | 显示全部楼层
ZCZC MIATWOEP ALL
TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM

Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
500 PM PDT Fri Jul 19 2019

For the eastern North Pacific...east of 140 degrees west longitude:

1. A large area of disturbed weather located several hundred miles
southwest of the southwestern coast of Mexico is associated with
a tropical wave.  Environmental conditions appear to be conducive
for gradual development during the next few days, and a tropical
depression is likely to form early next week.  This disturbance is
forecast to move westward to west-northwestward at 10 to 15 mph,
away from the coast of Mexico.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...20 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...high...70 percent.

2. An elongated area of low pressure located more than 1600 miles
southwest of the southern tip of the Baja California peninsula is
producing a large area of disorganized showers and thunderstorms.
Environmental conditions are becoming less conducive, and
significant development of this system is not expected while it
moves west-northwestward to northwestward at 10 to 15 mph.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...10 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...low...10 percent.

Forecaster Brown
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发表于 2019-7-20 14:17 | 显示全部楼层
ZCZC MIATWOEP ALL
TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM

Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1100 PM PDT Fri Jul 19 2019

For the eastern North Pacific...east of 140 degrees west longitude:

1. A large area of disturbed weather located several hundred miles
southwest of the southwestern coast of Mexico is associated with
a tropical wave.  Environmental conditions are expected to be
conducive for development during the next few days, and a tropical
depression is likely to form early next week.  This disturbance is
forecast to move westward to west-northwestward at 10 to 15 mph,
away from the coast of Mexico.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...30 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...high...80 percent.

2. Showers and thunderstorms associated with an elongated area of low
pressure located more than 1600 miles southwest of the southern tip
of the Baja California peninsula have become less organized this
evening.  Environmental conditions are becoming less conducive and
development of this system is not expected while it moves
west-northwestward to northwestward at 10 to 15 mph.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...near 0 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...low...near 0 percent.

Forecaster Brown
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发表于 2019-7-20 20:15 | 显示全部楼层
ZCZC MIATWOEP ALL
TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM

Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
500 AM PDT Sat Jul 20 2019

For the eastern North Pacific...east of 140 degrees west longitude:

1. A large area of disturbed weather is located several hundred miles
south-southwest of the southern tip of the Baja California
peninsula.  Environmental conditions are expected to be conducive
for development, and a tropical depression is likely to form within
the next few days as it moves west-northwestward away from the coast
of Mexico.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...medium...40 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...high...80 percent.

Forecaster Latto/Pasch
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