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[2019] 东太平洋热带风暴“达莉拉”(04E.Dalila) - 编扰一周终获升格

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发表于 2019-7-23 05:58 | 显示全部楼层
000
WTPZ45 KNHC 222037
TCDEP5

Tropical Depression Five-E Discussion Number   3
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       EP052019
200 PM PDT Mon Jul 22 2019

The depression is struggling to become better organized. Visible
satellite imagery shows multiple low-level swirls moving about a
mean center of circulation, with the deep convection being confined
to the southwestern semicircle due to northeasterly shear. Both
subjective and objective satellite intensity estimates indicate that
the system intensity remains 30 kt.

Since the exact center is somewhat difficult to locate, the initial
motion is a rather uncertain 345/08kt. There has been a slight
westward shift in the majority of the track guidance, and this is
possibly due to them steering a weaker system than previously
forecast. The depression is expected to continue to move
north-northwest for the next 24-36 hours between a weak mid-level
trough to its west, and a building mid-level ridge to its
northeast. After 36 hours, the system should make a gradual
turn toward the west-northwest as the cyclone weakens and becomes
carried by the low-level steering currents.

There is a shrinking window of opportunity for the depression to get
its act together before it moves over SSTs below 26 C and into a
stable atmospheric environment in 24-36 hours. Additionally, the 15
to 20 kt of shear currently over the system may prevent it from
intensifying any further. However, the official forecast calls for
the depression to intensify slightly over marginal SSTs into a
weak tropical storm tonight, followed by a weakening trend beginning
in about 24 hours. The cyclone should weaken into a remnant low by
48 hours and then dissipate late this week. The intensity forecast
through 24 hours remains the same as the previous advisory, but
it has been lowered beyond 24 hours and is in agreement with the
majority of the intensity guidance.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT  22/2100Z 16.7N 116.6W   30 KT  35 MPH
12H  23/0600Z 17.8N 116.9W   35 KT  40 MPH
24H  23/1800Z 19.1N 117.4W   35 KT  40 MPH
36H  24/0600Z 20.2N 118.0W   30 KT  35 MPH
48H  24/1800Z 21.0N 119.0W   25 KT  30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
72H  25/1800Z 22.1N 121.3W   25 KT  30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
96H  26/1800Z...DISSIPATED

$$
Forecaster Latto/Pasch
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发表于 2019-7-23 12:03 | 显示全部楼层
本帖最后由 炎煌深沉 于 2019-7-23 13:05 编辑

WTPZ45 KNHC 230236
TCDEP5

Tropical Depression Five-E Discussion Number   4
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       EP052019
800 PM PDT Mon Jul 22 2019

This evening's visible satellite presentation consists of a rather
ragged and shapeless cloud pattern with multiple cloud swirls seen
rotating around the mean surface circulation center.  The Dvorak
satellite intensity estimates from both TAFB and SAB remain
unchanged (T2.0/30 kt) as well as the initial intensity.

There are no changes to the forecast intensity philosophy.  Both
the GFS and ECMWF SHIPS indicate that the northerly shear currently
impinging on the northeastern portion of the system will persist
through the forecast period.  This inhibiting wind pattern along
with cooler oceanic surface temperatures, ahead of the predicted
track, should cause the cyclone to degenerate into a remnant low
in 48 hours with dissipation in 4 days or less.  The only model
that shows strengthening to tropical storm status is the COAMPS-TC.
For continuity purposes, I've elected to maintain this slight 12-24
hour intensification period in the official forecast.

Because of the ill-defined circulation, the initial motion is
estimated to be a bit uncertain north-northwestward, or 345/7
kt, within the low- to mid-level steering flow produced by high
pressure located over the southwestern United States.  The
depression should continue moving in a general northwestward
direction toward a break in the ridge to the northwest of the
cyclone during the next 2 days.  Afterward, as the system begins to
weaken, a turn toward the west-northwest, within the tradewind flow,
is anticipated.  The model guidance is tightly clustered with the
exception being the left outlier UKMET.  The only adjustment in the
NHC forecast is, again, a shift slightly to the left of the previous
advisory, but follows both the TVCE and HCCA consensus models
closely.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT  23/0300Z 17.6N 116.8W   30 KT  35 MPH
12H  23/1200Z 18.5N 117.2W   35 KT  40 MPH
24H  24/0000Z 19.6N 117.9W   35 KT  40 MPH
36H  24/1200Z 20.5N 118.8W   30 KT  35 MPH
48H  25/0000Z 21.2N 119.8W   25 KT  30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
72H  26/0000Z 22.5N 122.3W   25 KT  30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
96H  27/0000Z...DISSIPATED

$$
Forecaster Roberts
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05E_230000sair.jpg
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发表于 2019-7-23 15:09 | 显示全部楼层
本帖最后由 炎煌深沉 于 2019-7-23 15:42 编辑

EP, 05, 2019072306,   , BEST,   0, 178N, 1171W,  35, 1005, TS,  34, NEQ,    0,   80,   80,    0, 1010,  200,  70,   0,   0,   E,   0,    ,   0,   0,     DALILA, M,  0,    ,    0,    0,    0,    0, genesis-num, 013,
goes16_vis-swir_05E_201907230655.jpg
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金玉良言

QQ
发表于 2019-7-23 15:33 | 显示全部楼层
成功混到了名字DALILA。
一个似乎从北大西洋进口的扰动。
EP052019.png
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发表于 2019-7-23 16:48 | 显示全部楼层
本帖最后由 2018.26W 于 2019-7-23 16:53 编辑

WTPZ45 KNHC 230837
TCDEP5

Tropical Storm Dalila Discussion Number   5
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       EP052019
200 AM PDT Tue Jul 23 2019

Deep convection has become stronger and closer to the center of the
cyclone during the past several hours.  While the circulation is
still elongated, it has become better defined, with the latest ASCAT
pass at 0440 UTC showing 30-35 kt winds in the southern quadrant.
Since TAFB, ADT and SATCON have the current intensity as a tropical
storm, plus the recent increase in organization, the current wind
speed has been set to 35 kt.

Dalila is probably near peak intensity. Since SSTs drop off later
today, along with a continuation of moderate northerly shear,
weakening should begin on Wednesday.  In a couple of days, SSTs near
24C, dry air aloft, and a more stable atmosphere should contribute
to Dalila losing deep convection, thus becoming a remnant low. This
is the solution provided by much of the guidance, and the latest NHC
intensity prediction is close to the previous one.

The cyclone has been moving erratically at 330/6 due to the center
trying to reform near the strong convection to the south.  A
mid-level ridge over the southwestern United States should provide
similar steering during the next day or so, causing a motion
generally toward the northwest by Wednesday.  As Dalila weakens, it
will likely turn more to the west-northwest on Thursday within the
low-level flow.  Similar to the past few cycles, model guidance is
continuing to shift westward, and the official forecast follows that
trend, not terribly far from the eastern Pacific track consensus
model TVCE.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT  23/0900Z 18.0N 117.3W   35 KT  40 MPH
12H  23/1800Z 18.8N 117.8W   35 KT  40 MPH
24H  24/0600Z 19.8N 118.6W   30 KT  35 MPH
36H  24/1800Z 20.6N 119.5W   30 KT  35 MPH
48H  25/0600Z 21.3N 120.6W   25 KT  30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
72H  26/0600Z 22.3N 123.3W   20 KT  25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
96H  27/0600Z...DISSIPATED

$$
Forecaster Blake



083628_5day_cone_with_line_and_wind.png 20190723.0234.f17.91pct91h91v.05E.FIVE.30kts.1006mb.17.3N.116.7W.070pc.jpg
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发表于 2019-7-23 18:40 | 显示全部楼层
全球热带气旋监测报告

预报:王海平  签发:高拴柱   2019 年  07 月  23 日  18


东北太平洋热带风暴“达莉拉”生成

东北太平洋热带风暴“达莉拉”(DALILA)已于今天(23日)下午(北京时,下同)生成,下午2点钟其中心位于美国洛杉矶(LOS ANGELES)偏南约1800公里的洋面上,就是北纬17.8度、西经117.1度,中心附近最大风力有8级(18米/秒,相当于我国的热带风暴级),中心最低气压为1005百帕。

预计,“达莉拉”将以每小时10-15公里的速度向北偏西方向移动,强度将先维持,明天下午开始减弱。


SEVP_NMC_TCMO_SFER_EME_AGLB_L89_P9_20190723100002400_XML_1.gif


卫星红外监测图像

(北京时间2019年7月23日15时00分)



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一条通往星星的崎岖道路

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发表于 2019-7-23 18:53 | 显示全部楼层
FKPZ25 KNHC 230836

TCAPZ5

TROPICAL STORM DALILA ICAO ADVISORY NUMBER   5

NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       EP052019

0900 UTC TUE JUL 23 2019

TC ADVISORY

DTG:                      20190723/0900Z

TCAC:                     KNHC

TC:                       DALILA

NR:                       005

PSN:                      N1800 W11718

MOV:                      NNW 06KT

C:                        1005HPA

MAX WIND:                 035KT

FCST PSN +6 HR:           23/1500Z N1831 W11738

FCST MAX WIND +6 HR:      035KT

FCST PSN +12 HR:          23/2100Z N1903 W11800

FCST MAX WIND +12 HR:     035KT

FCST PSN +18 HR:          24/0300Z N1933 W11824

FCST MAX WIND +18 HR:     030KT

FCST PSN +24 HR:          24/0900Z N2000 W11849

FCST MAX WIND +24 HR:     030KT

RMK:                      THE FORECAST POSITION INFORMATION IN

                          THIS PRODUCT IS INTERPOLATED FROM

                          OFFICIAL FORECAST DATA VALID AT 0000...

                          0600...1200...AND 1800Z.

NXT MSG:                  20190723/1500Z

..
20192041010_GOES17-ABI-tpw-GEOCOLOR-3600x2160.png
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发表于 2019-7-23 18:58 | 显示全部楼层
JTWC一下子好像把FNMOC搞蒙了

WTPN31 PHNC 231000
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL STORM 05E (FIVE) WARNING NR 005
   UPGRADED FROM TROPICAL DEPRESSION 05E

   01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN EASTPAC
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
    ---
   WARNING POSITION:
   230600Z --- NEAR 17.8N 117.1W
     MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 330 DEGREES AT 06 KTS
     POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 040 NM
     POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
   PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 000 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            080 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            080 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            000 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   REPEAT POSIT: 17.8N 117.1W
    ---
   FORECASTS:
   12 HRS, VALID AT:
   231800Z --- 18.8N 117.8W
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 000 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            080 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            080 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            000 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 325 DEG/ 06 KTS
    ---
   24 HRS, VALID AT:
   240600Z --- 19.8N 118.6W
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 315 DEG/ 06 KTS
    ---
   36 HRS, VALID AT:
   241800Z --- 20.6N 119.5W
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 305 DEG/ 06 KTS
    ---
   EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
   48 HRS, VALID AT:
   250600Z --- 21.3N 120.6W
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 025 KT, GUSTS 035 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
   VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 290 DEG/ 07 KTS
    ---
   72 HRS, VALID AT:
   260600Z --- 22.3N 123.3W
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 020 KT, GUSTS 030 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
    ---
REMARKS:
231000Z POSITION NEAR 18.1N 117.3W.
23JUL19. TROPICAL STORM 05E (FIVE), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 894 NM
SOUTH OF SAN DIEGO, HAS TRACKED NORTH-NORTHWESTWARD AT 06 KNOTS
OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS.
MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 230600Z IS 9 FEET. NEXT
WARNINGS AT 231600Z, 232200Z, 240400Z AND 241000Z.
//
NNNN
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发表于 2019-7-23 23:01 | 显示全部楼层
本帖最后由 1007圆规 于 2019-7-23 23:04 编辑

WTPZ45 KNHC 231438
TCDEP5

Tropical Storm Dalila Discussion Number   6
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       EP052019
800 AM PDT Tue Jul 23 2019

Dalila continues to battle 15-20 kt of northerly shear with deep
convection displaced across the southern semicircle of the storm.
Satellite imagery indicates that there are multiple low level swirls
encircling a mean center that is located just north of the edge of
the convection.  The latest Dvorak intensity estimates from both
TAFB and UW-CIMMS support maintaining a 35 kt initial intensity for
this advisory.

The initial motion is 330/07.  A mid-level ridge over the
southwestern United States will steer the cyclone to the northwest
through much of tonight.  As the system weakens, it will become
steered by an increasing component of the low-level flow, resulting
in a turn more to the west-northwest Wednesday and Thursday.
Similar to the past few model cycles, the latest guidance has
shifted slightly to the west, and therefore the official forecast
track has also been adjusted a little in that direction.

Dalila is approaching the 26 C isotherm and the center is forecast
to cross it in about 12 hours, which should cause a weakening trend
to begin by tonight.  In addition, the current shear is not expected
to decrease significantly in the next day or so, and during that
time the cyclone will be moving into a drier, more stable
environment.  These factors should cause Dalila to lose its deep
convection and become a remnant low by Wednesday night.  The latest
forecast is essentially an update of the previous official intensity
forecast.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT  23/1500Z 18.7N 117.7W   35 KT  40 MPH
12H  24/0000Z 19.4N 118.3W   35 KT  40 MPH
24H  24/1200Z 20.3N 119.2W   30 KT  35 MPH
36H  25/0000Z 20.9N 120.3W   30 KT  35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
48H  25/1200Z 21.5N 121.5W   25 KT  30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
72H  26/1200Z...DISSIPATED

$$
Forecaster Latto/Brown
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发表于 2019-7-24 08:37 | 显示全部楼层
612
WTPZ45 KNHC 232032
TCDEP5

Tropical Storm Dalila Discussion Number   7
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       EP052019
200 PM PDT Tue Jul 23 2019

Dalila has become less organized since the previous advisory.
Northerly shear and cooler waters has caused the primary
convective area to decrease in coverage and become more separated
from the surface circulation.  An ASCAT overpass from around midday
sampled the southeastern portion of the circulation and detected
35 to 40 kt winds, which suggests Dalila could have been
slightly stronger than analyzed this morning.  Based on the ASCAT
and the recent degradation of the convective organization, the
initial intensity is set at 35 kt for this advisory.

Dalila is moving northwestward or 325/7 kt.  The cyclone is
currently moving around the southwestern portion of a mid-level
ridge over the southwestern United States.  As Dalila weakens and
becomes a more vertically shallow system during the next 12 to 24
hours, it should turn west-northwestward to westward within the
low-level steering flow.  The latest guidance envelope is not much
different from the previous cycle, and the NHC track forecast is
essentially an update of the previous advisory.

Dalila is currently crossing the 26C isotherm and the northerly
shear is not forecast to abate.  As a result, gradual weakening is
anticipated.  As the cyclone moves over even cooler SSTs and into a
more stable air mass during the next 24 hours, the system should
lose its remaining deep convection and become a post-tropical
remnant low in 24 to 36 hours.  The intensity guidance is in good
agreement, and the updated NHC intensity forecast is close to the
model consensus.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT  23/2100Z 19.1N 118.2W   35 KT  40 MPH
12H  24/0600Z 19.9N 118.9W   30 KT  35 MPH
24H  24/1800Z 20.7N 120.0W   30 KT  35 MPH
36H  25/0600Z 21.3N 121.1W   25 KT  30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
48H  25/1800Z 21.8N 122.3W   20 KT  25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
72H  26/1800Z...DISSIPATED

$$
Forecaster Brown
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