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[2019] 东太平洋热带风暴“达莉拉”(04E.Dalila) - 编扰一周终获升格

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发表于 2019-7-21 01:51 | 显示全部楼层
ZCZC MIATWOEP ALL
TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM

Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1100 AM PDT Sat Jul 20 2019

For the eastern North Pacific...east of 140 degrees west longitude:

1. A large area of disturbed weather located several hundred miles
south-southwest of the southern tip of the Baja California peninsula
has changed little in organization today. However, environmental
conditions are expected to be conducive for development, and a
tropical depression is likely to form within the next few days as it
moves west-northwestward away from the coast of Mexico.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...medium...50 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...high...80 percent.

Forecaster Latto/Pasch
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two_pac_5d0(77).png
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发表于 2019-7-21 07:28 | 显示全部楼层
ZCZC MIATWOEP ALL
TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM

Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
500 PM PDT Sat Jul 20 2019

For the eastern North Pacific...east of 140 degrees west longitude:

1. Satellite imagery indicates that a broad and elongated low pressure
area has formed in association with the disturbed weather located
several hundred miles south-southwest of the southern tip of the
Baja California peninsula.  Environmental conditions are expected
to be conducive for additional development of this system, and a
tropical depression is likely to form within the next day or two.
This disturbance is forecast to move generally northwestward at
around 10 mph away from the coast of Mexico.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...high...70 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...high...90 percent.

Forecaster Brown
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发表于 2019-7-21 09:02 | 显示全部楼层
本帖最后由 炎煌深沉 于 2019-7-21 09:35 编辑

WTPN21 PHNC 210100
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION ALERT (INVEST 97E)//
RMKS/
1. FORMATION OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE IS POSSIBLE WITHIN
120 NM EITHER SIDE OF A LINE FROM 11.4N 114.2W TO 14.8N 115.4W
WITHIN THE NEXT 12 TO 24 HOURS. AVAILABLE DATA DOES NOT JUSTIFY
ISSUANCE OF NUMBERED TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNINGS AT THIS TIME.
WINDS IN THE AREA ARE ESTIMATED TO BE 23 TO 28 KNOTS. METSAT
IMAGERY AT 201800Z INDICATES THAT A CIRCULATION CENTER IS LOCATED
NEAR 11.8N 114.4W. THE SYSTEM IS MOVING WEST-NORTHWESTWARD AT 07
KNOTS.
2. REMARKS: AN AREA OF CONVECTION (INVEST 97E) IS LOCATED NEAR 11.8N
114.4W, APPROXIMATELY 456 NM SOUTH-SOUTHWEST OF SOCORRO. ANIMATED
MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS A SLIGHTLY ELONGATED LOW LEVEL
CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC) MINIMAL DEEP CONVECTION OVERHEAD WITH
POTENTIAL FORMATIVE BANDING TO THE NORTH AND NORTHEAST. A 202244Z
SSMI F-15 85GHZ MICROWAVE IMAGE SHOWS A SMALL POCKET OF DEEP
CONVECTION OVER THE LLCC WITH A LARGE ARC OF POTENTIAL BANDING TO
THE NORTH. 97E IS CURRENTLY IN A FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT WITH
EXCELLENT EQUATORWARD AND POLEWARD UPPER LEVEL OUTFLOW AND WARM (27
TO 29 CELSIUS) SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES BEING OFFSET BY MARGINAL (15
TO 25 KNOT) VERTICAL WIND SHEAR. GLOBAL MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT
THAT THE SYSTEM WILL TRACK NORTH-NORTHWESTWARD WHILE INTENSIFYING.
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 23 TO 28 KNOTS.
MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1001 MB. THE
POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE
WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS IS HIGH.
3. THIS ALERT WILL BE REISSUED, UPGRADED TO WARNING OR CANCELLED BY
220100Z.//
NNNN
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发表于 2019-7-21 13:25 | 显示全部楼层
本帖最后由 炎煌深沉 于 2019-7-21 13:26 编辑

.WARNINGS.
...GALE WARNING...
.LOW PRES NEAR 11N114W 1006 MB. WITHIN 150 NM NW SEMICIRCLE
WINDS 20 TO 25 KT. SEAS TO 8 FT. ELSEWHERE WITHIN 120 NM SE
SEMICIRCLE WINDS 20 TO 25 KT. SEAS LESS THAN 8 FT.
.24 HOUR FORECAST LOW PRES...POSSIBLE TROPICAL CYCLONE...NEAR
13N115W 1005 MB. WITHIN 240 NM SE QUADRANT WINDS 20 TO 25 KT.
SEAS 9 TO 11 FT. ELSEWHERE FROM 08N TO 17N BETWEEN 111W AND 118W
WINDS 20 KT OR LESS. SEAS TO 10 FT IN MIXED SWELL.
.36 HOUR FORECAST LOW PRES...POSSIBLE TROPICAL CYCLONE...NEAR
14N116W 1004 MB. WITHIN 30 NM NW QUADRANT WINDS 30 TO 35 KT.
SEAS 10 TO 11 FT. ELSEWHERE FROM 13N TO 15N BETWEEN 115W AND
117W WINDS 20 TO 30 KT. SEAS 8 TO 10 FT. REMAINDER AREA FROM 08N
TO 18N BETWEEN 112W AND 118W WINDS 20 KT OR LESS. SEAS 8 TO 9 FT
IN MIXED SWELL.
.48 HOUR FORECAST LOW PRES...POSSIBLE TROPICAL CYCLONE...NEAR
15N116W 1003 MB. WITHIN 45 NM OF CYCLONE CENTER WINDS 30 TO 40
KT. SEAS 11 TO 12 FT. ELSEWHERE FROM 14N TO 16N BETWEEN 115W AND
117W WINDS 20 TO 30 KT. SEAS 9 TO 10 FT. REMAINDER AREA FROM 08N
TO 20N BETWEEN 113W AND 118W WINDS 20 KT OR LESS. SEAS 8 TO 9 FT
IN MIXED SWELL.

ZCZC MIATWOEP ALL
TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM

Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1100 PM PDT Sat Jul 20 2019

For the eastern North Pacific...east of 140 degrees west longitude:

1. Satellite imagery indicates that a low pressure system located
several hundred miles south-southwest of the southern tip of the
Baja California peninsula is gradually becoming better defined.
Thunderstorm activity has been steadily increasing and becoming
better organized, and a tropical depression or a tropical storm is
expected to form during the next day or so. The disturbance is
forecast to move generally northwestward at around 10 mph, remaining
well offshore the coast of Mexico.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...high...90 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...high...90 percent.

Forecaster Stewart
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发表于 2019-7-22 08:30 | 显示全部楼层
本帖最后由 炎煌深沉 于 2019-7-22 09:02 编辑

ZCZC MIATWOEP ALL
TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM

Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
500 PM PDT Sun Jul 21 2019

For the eastern North Pacific...east of 140 degrees west longitude:

1. Satellite data indicate that the circulation of a low pressure area
located about 800 miles south-southwest of the southern tip of the
Baja California peninsula remains elongated.  However, the
associated showers and thunderstorms are showing signs of
organization, and a tropical depression or a tropical storm is
expected to form during the next day or so.  This system is
forecast to move generally northwestward and remain well offshore of
the coast of Mexico.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...high...90 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...high...90 percent.

Forecaster Cangialosi
two_pac_2d1.png
two_pac_5d1.png

WTPN21 PHNC 220100
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION ALERT (INVEST 97E) REISSUED//
REF/A/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/210051Z JUL 19//
AMPN/REF A IS TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION ALERT//
RMKS/
1. FORMATION OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE IS POSSIBLE WITHIN
160 NM EITHER SIDE OF A LINE FROM 12.4N 116.5W TO 17.2N 116.5W
WITHIN THE NEXT 12 TO 24 HOURS. AVAILABLE DATA DOES NOT JUSTIFY
ISSUANCE OF NUMBERED TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNINGS AT THIS TIME.
WINDS IN THE AREA ARE ESTIMATED TO BE 28 TO 33 KNOTS. METSAT
IMAGERY AT 211800Z INDICATES THAT A CIRCULATION CENTER IS LOCATED
NEAR 12.9N 116.5W. THE SYSTEM IS MOVING NORTH-NORTHWESTWARD AT 07
KNOTS.
2. REMARKS: THE AREA OF CONVECTION (INVEST 97E) PREVIOUSLY LOCATED
NEAR 11.8N 114.4W, IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 12.9N 116.5W, APPROXIMATELY
472 NM SOUTHWEST OF SOCORRO. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE
IMAGERY, ALONG WITH A 212339Z SSMIS F-16 91GHZ MICROWAVE IMAGE,
SHOWS A CONSOLIDATING LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC) WITH
LIMITED DEEP CONVECTION OVERHEAD AND FORMATIVE BANDING TO THE NORTH.
A 211751Z METOP-C PARTIAL ASCAT PASS SHOWS AN ASYMMETRIC WIND FIELD
WITH SEVERAL 30 KNOT WIND BARBS TO THE NORTHWEST OF THE LLCC. 97E IS
IN A FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT WITH LOW (10 TO 15 KNOT) VERTICAL WIND
SHEAR, VERY WARM (29 TO 30 CELSIUS) SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES, AND
MODERATE UPPER LEVEL OUTFLOW. GLOBAL MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT
THAT THE SYSTEM WILL TRACK NORTHWARD WITH MARGINAL INTENSIFICATION.
THE MODELS BEGIN TO DISAGREE AFTER TAU 36 WITH GFS AND NAVGEM
CONTINUING TO TRACK 97E STRAIGHT NORTH, WHILE ECMWF AND UKMET BEGIN
TO CURVE 97E TO THE WEST. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE
ESTIMATED AT 28 TO 33 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED
TO BE NEAR 1006 MB. THE POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A
SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS REMAINS HIGH.
THIS SUPERSEDES REF A (WTPN21 PHNC 210100).
3. THIS ALERT WILL BE REISSUED, UPGRADED TO WARNING OR CANCELLED BY
230100Z.//
NNNN
ep9719.gif
97E_220000sair.jpg
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发表于 2019-7-22 15:04 | 显示全部楼层
本帖最后由 炎煌深沉 于 2019-7-22 15:28 编辑

EP, 05, 2019072206,   , BEST,   0, 146N, 1162W,  30, 1006, TD,  34, NEQ,    0,    0,    0,    0, 1010,  200,  50,   0,   0,   E,   0,    ,   0,   0,       FIVE, M,  0,    ,    0,    0,    0,    0, genesis-num, 013, TRANSITIONED, epA72019 to ep052019,
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ep052019.png
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发表于 2019-7-22 15:06 | 显示全部楼层
这样就升格。。。
LATEST.jpg
回眸过去,守望现在,眺望未来!
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发表于 2019-7-22 16:38 | 显示全部楼层
本帖最后由 炎煌深沉 于 2019-7-22 18:42 编辑

WTPZ45 KNHC 220836
TCDEP5

Tropical Depression Five-E Discussion Number   1
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       EP052019
200 AM PDT Mon Jul 22 2019

The area of disturbed weather and low pressure system located about
600 nmi southwest of Baja California Sur that the NHC has been
monitoring for the past several days has finally developed a
sufficient inner-core wind field and enough organized deep
convection to be classified as a tropical cyclone. The initial
intensity is set at 30 kt based on two ASCAT passes between
0430-0530Z that showed 30-31 kt wind vectors in the western
quadrant, which corresponds well with the latest TAFB Dvorak
satellite intensity estimate of T2.0/30 kt from TAFB.

The initial motion estimate is an uncertain 360/08 kt due to the
lack of a well-defined center until recently. However, the NHC model
guidance is in surprisingly good agreement on the cyclone moving
northward for the next 36-48 hours around the eastern periphery of a
broad mid-level low/trough located to the west of the depression. By
72 h and continuing through 120 h, the cyclone is forecast to move
northwestward as a weakening remnant low pressure system. The NHC
forecast track lies close to a blend of the various consensus
models, and is about midway between the GFS and ECMWF model
solutions that bound on the eastern and western fringes,
respectively, of the track guidance envelope.

Modest north to northeasterly vertical wind shear and occasional
intrusions of dry air are expected to hinder development and
strengthening for the next 48 hours or so. By late on day 2 and
especially by day 3, the cyclone will be moving over sub-26 deg C
sea-surface temperatures, which will induce at least steady
weakening despite decreasing vertical wind shear conditions during
that time. The official intensity forecast is similar to but
slightly higher higher than the IVCN and HCCA intensity consensus
models, with the latter guidance calling for no strengthening.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT  22/0900Z 15.0N 116.2W   30 KT  35 MPH
12H  22/1800Z 16.3N 116.3W   30 KT  35 MPH
24H  23/0600Z 17.9N 116.6W   35 KT  40 MPH
36H  23/1800Z 19.2N 117.0W   40 KT  45 MPH
48H  24/0600Z 20.4N 117.7W   35 KT  40 MPH
72H  25/0600Z 22.0N 119.6W   25 KT  30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
96H  26/0600Z 23.2N 122.0W   20 KT  25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
120H  27/0600Z 24.6N 124.5W   20 KT  25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW

$$
Forecaster Stewart
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发表于 2019-7-22 17:22 | 显示全部楼层
增强缓慢,发展空间也不大,对陆地没有影响
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发表于 2019-7-22 23:37 | 显示全部楼层
050
WTPZ45 KNHC 221435
TCDEP5

Tropical Depression Five-E Discussion Number   2
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       EP052019
800 AM PDT Mon Jul 22 2019

A recent satellite microwave pass indicates that the depression has
not gotten any better organized this morning. It appears that
northeasterly shear is keeping much of the convection displaced to
the west of the center of circulation. Both the latest TAFB
Dvorak satellite intensity estimate and UW-CIMMS objective intensity
estimate indicate that the system remains a 30-kt depression.

The initial motion of the depression is 355/08 kt. Model guidance is
in good agreement on a continuation of this general motion for the
next 36-48 hours as the depression is steered between a weak
mid-level trough to its west, and a building mid-level ridge to its
northeast. After 48 hours, the system should begin to weaken and
turn toward the northwest as it becomes steered by the lower-level
flow. The latest NHC forecast track is very near the previous
official forecast and is near the track guidance consensus.

Although convection has increased this morning, the shear is
preventing the inner core of the depression from becoming better
established. This shear is forecast to remain in the 15-20 kt range
for the next 48 hours which should continue to prevent any
significant intensification during that time frame. Since the other
environmental parameters are somewhat favorable for intensification
during the next day or so, the depression will likely become a
minimal tropical storm later today or tonight. After 48 hours, the
system will move over waters below 26 C and into a stable
atmospheric environment which should induce steady weakening. By 72
hours, the system is expected to become a remnant low, with
dissipation likely by 120 hours. The official intensity forecast is
close to the previous NHC forecast, and is near the more reliable
intensity guidance.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT  22/1500Z 15.9N 116.3W   30 KT  35 MPH
12H  23/0000Z 17.0N 116.5W   35 KT  40 MPH
24H  23/1200Z 18.5N 116.8W   35 KT  40 MPH
36H  24/0000Z 19.8N 117.3W   35 KT  40 MPH
48H  24/1200Z 20.8N 118.0W   35 KT  40 MPH
72H  25/1200Z 22.3N 120.0W   25 KT  30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
96H  26/1200Z 23.5N 122.5W   20 KT  25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
120H  27/1200Z 24.0N 125.0W   20 KT  25 MPH...DISSIPATED

$$
Forecaster Latto/Pasch
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