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[2019] 夸贾林环礁附近99W - 10.6N 165.2E

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发表于 2019-7-16 15:11 | 显示全部楼层 |阅读模式
本帖最后由 颱風巨爵 于 2019-7-18 23:10 编辑

99W INVEST 190716 0600 8.5N 178.0E WPAC 15 0

20190716.0650.himawari-8.ir.99W.INVEST.15kts.1007mb.8.5N.178E.100pc.jpg

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参与人数 1金钱 +5 威望 +5 收起 理由
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发表于 2019-7-16 15:22 | 显示全部楼层
中太东风波
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发表于 2019-7-16 23:16 | 显示全部楼层
超远洋類似山竹
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发表于 2019-7-16 23:18 | 显示全部楼层
只有我一个人看不到图吗?
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发表于 2019-7-17 10:18 | 显示全部楼层
远洋转向了99W,不会上岸、
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 楼主| 发表于 2019-7-17 13:53 | 显示全部楼层
本帖最后由 红豆棒冰冰 于 2019-7-17 22:24 编辑

ABPW10 PGTW 170600
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL WEATHER ADVISORY FOR THE WESTERN AND
/SOUTH PACIFIC OCEANS/170600Z-180600ZJUL2019//
REF/A/MSG/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/170151ZJUL2019//
AMPN/REF A IS A TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING.//
RMKS/
1. WESTERN NORTH PACIFIC AREA (180 TO MALAY PENINSULA):
   A. TROPICAL CYCLONE SUMMARY:
      (1) AT 170000Z, TROPICAL STORM 06W (DANAS) WAS LOCATED NEAR
18.1N 123.5E. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS WERE ESTIMATED AT 35
KNOTS GUSTING TO 45 KNOTS. SEE REF A (WTPN31 PGTW 170300) FOR
FURTHER DETAILS.
      (2) NO OTHER TROPICAL CYCLONES.
   B. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE SUMMARY:
      (1) AN AREA OF CONVECTION (INVEST 99W) HAS PERSISTED NEAR 8.4N
171.4E, APPROXIMATELY 215 NM EAST OF KWAJALEIN. ANIMATED
MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY AND A 170408Z 91GHZ SSMIS PARTIAL
PASS DEPICT FLARING STRAIGHT-LINE CONVECTION WITH A POSSIBLY
DEVELOPING, ELONGATED LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION TO THE SOUTH. STRONG
DIVERGENCE ALOFT IS OFFSET BY HIGH (30-40KT) VERTICAL WIND SHEAR
THAT DECREASES TO THE NORTH. SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES ARE FAVORABLY
WARM (30-32C) AND WILL SUPPORT FOR FURTHER DEVELOPMENT. GLOBAL
MODELS ARE SPLIT ON DEVELOPMENT POTENTIAL, WITH GFS AND NAVGEM
CALLING FOR 99W TO BECOME A WEAK TROPICAL DEPRESSION ON A
NORTHWESTWARD TRACK AND OTHERS SHOWING NO DEVELOPMENT. MAXIMUM
SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 10 TO 15 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA
LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1008 MB. THE POTENTIAL FOR
THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24
HOURS IS LOW.
      (2) NO OTHER SUSPECT AREAS.
2. SOUTH PACIFIC AREA (WEST COAST OF SOUTH AMERICA TO 135 EAST):
   A. TROPICAL CYCLONE SUMMARY: NONE.
   B. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE SUMMARY: NONE.//
NNNN
20190717.0408.f16.91pct91h91v.99W.INVEST.15kts.1010mb.8.4N.171.4E.075pc.jpg
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发表于 2019-7-18 14:30 | 显示全部楼层
本帖最后由 红豆棒冰冰 于 2019-7-18 21:48 编辑

ABPW10 PGTW 180600
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL WEATHER ADVISORY FOR THE WESTERN AND
/SOUTH PACIFIC OCEANS/180600Z-190600ZJUL2019//
REF/A/MSG/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/180151ZJUL2019//
REF/B/MSG/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/180221ZJUL2019//
NARR/REF A IS A TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING. REF B IS A TROPICAL
CYCLONE FORMATION ALERT.//
RMKS/
1. WESTERN NORTH PACIFIC AREA (180 TO MALAY PENINSULA):
   A. TROPICAL CYCLONE SUMMARY:
      (1) AT 180000Z, TROPICAL STORM 06W (DANAS) WAS LOCATED NEAR
23.3N 124.1E, APPROXIMATELY 179 NM SOUTHEAST OF TAIPEI, TAIWAN.
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS WERE ESTIMATED AT 35 KNOTS GUSTING
TO 45 KNOTS. SEE REF A (WTPN31 PGTW 180300) FOR FURTHER DETAILS.
      (2) NO OTHER TROPICAL CYCLONES.
   B. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE SUMMARY:
      (1) THE AREA OF CONVECTION (INVEST 91W) PREVIOUSLY LOCATED
NEAR 17.2N 117.2E, IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 19.4N 119.3E APPROXIMATELY
628 NM SOUTHWEST OF KADENA AB, OKINAWA, JAPAN. ANIMATED ENHANCED
INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY AND A 172316Z 91GHZ SSMIS MICROWAVE
IMAGE DEPICT A LARGE AREA OF DEEP CONVECTION SHEARED 60 NM
SOUTHWARD OF A CONSOLIDATING LLC. UPPER LEVEL ANALYSIS SHOWS 91W IS
NOW IN AN AREA OF MODERATE (15-20KT) VERTICAL WIND SHEAR OFFSET BY
STRONG POLEWARD UPPER LEVEL OUTFLOW. SSTS ARE FAVORABLE FOR
DEVELOPMENT AT 30-32C. GLOBAL MODELS SHOW 91W TRACKING NORTHWARD
AND TRAILING TS DANAS(06W) AS AN ELONGATED DISTURBANCE WITH LINEAR
CONVECTION. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 18 TO
23 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1005
MB. THE POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL
CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS IS UPGRADED TO HIGH. SEE REF B   
(WTPN21 PGTW 180230) FOR FURTHER DETAILS.   
      (2) THE AREA OF CONVECTION (INVEST 99W) PREVIOUSLY LOCATED
NEAR 9.0N 167.7E, HAS DISSIPATED AND IS NO LONGER SUSPECT FOR THE  
DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE IN THE NEXT 24 HOURS.
      (3) NO OTHER SUSPECT AREAS.
2. SOUTH PACIFIC AREA (WEST COAST OF SOUTH AMERICA TO 135 EAST):
   A. TROPICAL CYCLONE SUMMARY: NONE.
   B. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE SUMMARY: NONE.//
NNNN
abpwsair.jpg
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