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[2019] 东太平洋98E - 11.7N 131.0W - NHC:30%

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发表于 2019-7-18 08:29 | 显示全部楼层 |阅读模式
本帖最后由 颱風巨爵 于 2019-7-21 03:44 编辑

EP, 98, 2019071800,   , BEST,   0, 117N, 1245W,  20, 1007, LO

20190718.0000.goes-17.ir.98E.INVEST.15kts.1006mb.13N.125W.100pc.jpg

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发表于 2019-7-18 22:48 | 显示全部楼层
ZCZC MIATWOEP ALL
TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM

Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
500 AM PDT Thu Jul 18 2019

For the eastern North Pacific...east of 140 degrees west longitude:

1. A tropical wave located a few hundred miles south-southwest of
Acapulco is producing disorganized showers and thunderstorms.
Environmental conditions are forecast to become more conducive for
gradual development, and a tropical depression could form early
next week. This disturbance is forecast to move westward to
west-northwestward at 10 to 15 mph, well south of the coast of
Mexico.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...near 0 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...medium...50 percent.

2. Disorganized showers and thunderstorms continue in association
with a broad area of low pressure centered about 1350 miles
southwest of the southern tip of the Baja California peninsula.
Upper-level winds appear to be conducive for further development,
and a tropical depression could form during the next two or three
days while the disturbance moves west-northwestward or northwestward
at 10 to 15 mph. After that time, conditions are expected to become
less favorable for development.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...30 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...medium...40 percent.

Forecaster Latto/Brown
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发表于 2019-7-19 12:59 | 显示全部楼层
ZCZC MIATWOEP ALL
TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM

Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
500 PM PDT Thu Jul 18 2019

For the eastern North Pacific...east of 140 degrees west longitude:

1. Shower activity associated with a tropical wave located several
hundred miles south of Manzanillo, Mexico is very limited
at this time. Environmental conditions could become a little more
more conducive for gradual development, and a tropical depression
could form early next week before the system reaches cooler waters.
This disturbance is forecast to move westward to west-northwestward
at 10 to 15 mph, away from the coast of Mexico.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...near 0 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...medium...50 percent.

2. A broad area of low pressure located more than 1000 miles southwest
of the southern tip of the Baja California peninsula is producing an
elongated area of showers and thunderstorms. This system has not
become any better organized since yesterday, and the chances for
tropical cyclone formation appears to be diminishing. The low
is expected to move west-northwestward or northwestward at 10 to 15
mph.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...20 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...low...30 percent.

Forecaster Avila
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发表于 2019-7-20 01:48 | 显示全部楼层
本帖最后由 红豆棒冰冰 于 2019-7-20 01:49 编辑

ZCZC MIATWOEP ALL
TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM

Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1100 AM PDT Fri Jul 19 2019

For the eastern North Pacific...east of 140 degrees west longitude:

1. An area of disturbed weather located several hundred miles southwest
of the southwestern coast of Mexico is associated with a tropical
wave.  Environmental conditions appear to be conducive for gradual
development, and a tropical depression could form early next week
before the system reaches cooler waters.  This disturbance is
forecast to move westward to west-northwestward at 10 to 15 mph,
away from the coast of Mexico.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...10 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...medium...60 percent.

2. A broad area of low pressure located more than 1500 miles southwest
of the southern tip of the Baja California peninsula is producing an
elongated area of showers and thunderstorms.  This system remains
disorganized, and conditions are becoming less conducive for
tropical cyclone formation.  The low is expected to move
west-northwestward or northwestward at 10 to 15 mph.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...20 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...low...20 percent.

Forecaster Pasch
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发表于 2019-7-20 08:33 | 显示全部楼层
ZCZC MIATWOEP ALL
TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM

Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
500 PM PDT Fri Jul 19 2019

For the eastern North Pacific...east of 140 degrees west longitude:

1. A large area of disturbed weather located several hundred miles
southwest of the southwestern coast of Mexico is associated with
a tropical wave.  Environmental conditions appear to be conducive
for gradual development during the next few days, and a tropical
depression is likely to form early next week.  This disturbance is
forecast to move westward to west-northwestward at 10 to 15 mph,
away from the coast of Mexico.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...20 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...high...70 percent.

2. An elongated area of low pressure located more than 1600 miles
southwest of the southern tip of the Baja California peninsula is
producing a large area of disorganized showers and thunderstorms.
Environmental conditions are becoming less conducive, and
significant development of this system is not expected while it
moves west-northwestward to northwestward at 10 to 15 mph.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...10 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...low...10 percent.

Forecaster Brown
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发表于 2019-7-20 14:19 | 显示全部楼层
ZCZC MIATWOEP ALL
TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM

Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1100 PM PDT Fri Jul 19 2019

For the eastern North Pacific...east of 140 degrees west longitude:

1. A large area of disturbed weather located several hundred miles
southwest of the southwestern coast of Mexico is associated with
a tropical wave.  Environmental conditions are expected to be
conducive for development during the next few days, and a tropical
depression is likely to form early next week.  This disturbance is
forecast to move westward to west-northwestward at 10 to 15 mph,
away from the coast of Mexico.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...30 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...high...80 percent.

2. Showers and thunderstorms associated with an elongated area of low
pressure located more than 1600 miles southwest of the southern tip
of the Baja California peninsula have become less organized this
evening.  Environmental conditions are becoming less conducive and
development of this system is not expected while it moves
west-northwestward to northwestward at 10 to 15 mph.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...near 0 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...low...near 0 percent.

Forecaster Brown
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