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[2020] 罗德里格斯岛东北扰动天气区第1号(96S) - 18.0S 68.1E - 南半球新风季首扰

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发表于 2019-7-21 07:44 | 显示全部楼层 |阅读模式
本帖最后由 颱風巨爵 于 2019-7-26 08:52 编辑

96S INVEST 190720 1800 4.0S 74.0E SHEM 15 0

20190720.2300.msg-1.ir.96S.INVEST.15kts.993mb.4S.74E.100pc.jpg

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参与人数 1金钱 +3 威望 +3 收起 理由
红豆棒冰冰 + 3 + 3 96S

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Wednesday Morning, 3 A.M.,
The Sound of Silence
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发表于 2019-7-21 09:01 | 显示全部楼层
ecmwf_mslp_uv850_io_5.png
gfs_mslp_uv850_io_10.png
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发表于 2019-7-22 08:06 | 显示全部楼层
本帖最后由 炎煌深沉 于 2019-7-22 18:43 编辑

Currently, an equatorial Rossby wave transits from east to west and favors a wide cyclonic
circulation centred approximatively near 4.2S/75.2E. Deep convective activity is strong but very
fluctuating over the southern semi-circle within the polerward low level feeding between 65E and
80E. According with the 0346Z ASCAT swath, maximum winds are estimated at 15 kt but reaching
25/30 kt far from the centre by gradient effect. Minimal pressure is estimated at 1005 hPa.
Environmental conditions remain unfavourable due to a weak low level equatorward convergence
and especially a strong eastern to northeastern vertical windshear. Model guidance are in good
agreement to forecast a soutsouthwestward moving. On this track, the vertical windshear is
expected to temporally decrease Wednesday and Thursday ahead a deep mid-latitudes upper level
trough. With an improving upper level divergence, the LLCC should slightly deepen although the
environment should become drier and drier. But, from Friday, behind the upper level trough, the
western vertical windshear is forecasted to become moderate and the LLCC should begin to fill up
drifting within the trade winds.
The risk of development of a moderate tropical storm is low south-west of Diego-Garcia.
cyclogenese.png

ABIO10 PGTW 211800
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL WEATHER ADVISORY FOR THE INDIAN
/OCEAN/211800Z-221800ZJUL2019//
RMKS/
1. NORTH INDIAN OCEAN AREA (MALAY PENINSULA WEST TO COAST OF AFRICA):
   A. TROPICAL CYCLONE SUMMARY: NONE.
   B. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE SUMMARY: NONE.
2. SOUTH INDIAN OCEAN AREA (135E WEST TO COAST OF AFRICA):
   A. TROPICAL CYCLONE SUMMARY: NONE.
   B. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE SUMMARY:
      (1) AN AREA OF CONVECTION (INVEST 96S) HAS PERSISTED NEAR 5.2S
74.6E, APPROXIMATELY 181 NM NORTHEAST OF DIEGO GARCIA. ANIMATED
ENHANCED INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS AN ELONGATED LOW LEVEL
CIRCULATION (LLC) WITH OVERHEAD CIRRUS OBSCURATION. A 211143Z MHS
MOAA-19 89GHZ MICROWAVE IMAGE SHOWS VERY LITTLE DEEP CONVECTION OVER
THE LLC WITH POTENTIAL FORMATIVE BANDING TO THE SOUTHEAST. 96S IS
CURRENTLY IN A FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT WITH GOOD POLEWARD OUTFLOW, LOW
(10 TO 15 KNOT) VERTICAL WIND SHEAR, AND VERY WARM (32 TO 33
CELSIUS) SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES. GLOBAL MODELS ARE IN GOOD
AGREEMENT THAT 96S WILL CONTINUE TO TRACK SOUTHWESTWARD WITH MINIMAL
INTENSIFICATION.
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 15
TO 20 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1004
MB. THE POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL
CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS IS LOW.
      (2) NO OTHER SUSPECT AREAS.//
NNNN
abiosair.jpg
20190721.1143.noaa19.89h.96S.INVEST.20kts.1004mb.5.2S.74.6E.080pc.jpg

ABIO10 PGTW 211800 COR
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL WEATHER ADVISORY FOR THE INDIAN
/OCEAN/CORRECTED/211800Z-221800ZJUL2019//
RMKS/
1. NORTH INDIAN OCEAN AREA (MALAY PENINSULA WEST TO COAST OF AFRICA):
   A. TROPICAL CYCLONE SUMMARY: NONE.
   B. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE SUMMARY: NONE.
2. SOUTH INDIAN OCEAN AREA (135E WEST TO COAST OF AFRICA):
   A. TROPICAL CYCLONE SUMMARY: NONE.
   B. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE SUMMARY:
      (1) AN AREA OF CONVECTION (INVEST 96S) HAS PERSISTED NEAR 5.2S
74.6E, APPROXIMATELY 181 NM NORTHEAST OF DIEGO GARCIA. ANIMATED
ENHANCED INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS AN ELONGATED LOW LEVEL
CIRCULATION (LLC) WITH OVERHEAD CIRRUS OBSCURATION. A 211143Z MHS
NOAA-19 89GHZ MICROWAVE IMAGE SHOWS VERY LITTLE DEEP CONVECTION OVER
THE LLC WITH POTENTIAL FORMATIVE BANDING TO THE SOUTHEAST. 96S IS
CURRENTLY IN A FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT WITH GOOD POLEWARD OUTFLOW, LOW
(10 TO 15 KNOT) VERTICAL WIND SHEAR, AND VERY WARM (32 TO 33
CELSIUS) SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES. GLOBAL MODELS ARE IN GOOD
AGREEMENT THAT 96S WILL CONTINUE TO TRACK SOUTHWESTWARD WITH MINIMAL
INTENSIFICATION. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 15
TO 20 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1004
MB. THE POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL
CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS IS LOW.
      (2) NO OTHER SUSPECT AREAS.
3. JUSTIFICATION FOR CORRECTION: CORRECTED TYPOGRAPHICAL ERRORS IN
PARA 2.B.(1).//
NNNN
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发表于 2019-7-22 17:24 | 显示全部楼层
目前结构仍然很差,虽然部分数值支持发展,但现在毕竟是南半球冬季,首个扰动或者首个热带低压(如果后续能发展)的象征意义大于实质
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发表于 2019-7-23 03:25 | 显示全部楼层
ABIO10 PGTW 221800
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL WEATHER ADVISORY FOR THE INDIAN
/OCEAN/221800Z-231800ZJUL2019//
RMKS/
1. NORTH INDIAN OCEAN AREA (MALAY PENINSULA WEST TO COAST OF AFRICA):
   A. TROPICAL CYCLONE SUMMARY: NONE.
   B. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE SUMMARY: NONE.
2. SOUTH INDIAN OCEAN AREA (135E WEST TO COAST OF AFRICA):
   A. TROPICAL CYCLONE SUMMARY: NONE.
   B. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE SUMMARY:
      (1) AN AREA OF CONVECTION (INVEST 96S) PREVIOUSLY LOCATED NEAR
5.2S 74.6E, IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 8.0S 70.8E APPROXIMATELY 102 NM WEST-
SOUTHWEST OF DIEGO GARCIA. ANIMATED ENHANCED INFRARED SATELLITE
IMAGERY AND AN 89GHZ MHS METOP-A IMAGE SHOW A BROAD DISORGANIZED LOW
LEVEL CIRCULATION (LLC) WITH SOME DEEP CONVECTION. UPPER LEVEL
ANALYSIS INDICATES 96S IN A MODERATELY UNFAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT WITH
HIGH(>25 KNOTS) VERTICAL WIND SHEAR BUT GOOD POLEWARD OUTFLOW. SSTS
ARE FAVORABLE AT 28 TO 29 DEGREES CELSIUS. GLOBAL MODELS ARE IN GOOD
AGREEMENT THAT 96S WILL TRACK SOUTHWESTWARD WITH VERY MINIMAL
INTENSIFICATION IN THE NEAR TERM. HOWEVER, BEYOND 24 HOURS,
INCREASING VWS AND COOLING SSTS WILL MAINLY CAUSE 96S TO RAPIDLY
DETERIORATE. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 15 TO
20 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1002 MB.
THE POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE
WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS REMAINS LOW.
      (2) NO OTHER SUSPECT AREAS.
NNNN
abpwsair.jpg
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发表于 2019-7-23 21:15 | 显示全部楼层
本帖最后由 933954 于 2019-7-23 21:19 编辑

2019-07-23_16_48_46_chart.jpg
MMS:TD

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发表于 2019-7-24 06:08 | 显示全部楼层
本帖最后由 炎煌深沉 于 2019-7-24 10:17 编辑

WTIO30 FMEE 231726
RSMC / TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTER / LA REUNION
TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST WARNING (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN)
0.A WARNING NUMBER: 1/1/20192020
1.A ZONE OF DISTURBED WEATHER 1
2.A POSITION 2019/07/23 AT 1800 UTC:
WITHIN 40 NM RADIUS OF POINT 13.5 S / 68.6 E
(THIRTEEN    DECIMAL FIVE   DEGREES SOUTH AND
SIXTY EIGHT    DECIMAL SIX   DEGREES EAST)
MOVEMENT: SOUTH-WEST 15 KT
3.A DVORAK ANALYSIS: NIL
4.A CENTRAL PRESSURE: 1002 HPA
5.A MAX AVERAGE WIND SPEED (10 MN): 25 KT
RADIUS OF MAXIMUM WINDS (RMW): 278 KM
6.A EXTENSION OF WIND BY QUADRANTS (KM):
NIL
7.A FIRST CLOSED ISOBAR (PRESSURE / AVERAGE DIAM): 1006 HPA / 1100 KM
8.A VERTICAL EXTENSION OF CYCLONE CIRCULATION: SHALLOW
1.B FORECASTS:
12H: 2019/07/24 06 UTC: 15.3 S / 68.0 E, VENT MAX= 030 KT, TROPICAL
DEPRESSION
24H: 2019/07/24 18 UTC: 17.3 S / 68.3 E, VENT MAX= 035 KT, MODERATE
TROPICAL STORM
36H: 2019/07/25 06 UTC: 18.8 S / 67.5 E, VENT MAX= 030 KT, TROPICAL
DEPRESSION
48H: 2019/07/25 18 UTC: 19.4 S / 65.5 E, VENT MAX= 020 KT, FILLING UP
60H: 2019/07/26 06 UTC: 19.7 S / 63.3 E, VENT MAX= 020 KT, REMNANT
LOW
2.B LONGER-RANGE OUTLOOK:
NIL
2.C ADDITIONAL INFORMATION:
T=CI=NIL
FOLLOWED FOR SEVERAL DAYS IN THE AWIO20 FMEE WARNINGS, THE DISTURBED
AREA LOCATED SOUTHWEST OF DIEGO-GARCIA SHOWS QUITE FLUCTUATING
CONVECTION FLUSHING OVER THE LAST 6 HOURS. THE CLOCKWISE CIRCULATION
HAS DIFFICULTY ORGANIZING ITSELF NEAR THE STRONGEST CONVECTION AS
SHOWN BY THE LATEST MICROWAVE IMAGES : THESE DO NOT ALLOW US TO
PRECISELY DEFINE A WELL-ESTABLISHED CENTRE FOR THIS ZONE OF DISTURBED
WEATHER. THE LAST USEFULL ASCAT SWATH (AT 0440UTC) ALLOWS US TO
ESTIMATE WINDS OF AROUND 20/25KT IN THE SOUTHERN SECTOR OF THE
CIRCULATION QUITE FAR FROM THE CENTRE.
WITH A SLIGHTLY EXTENDED VERTICAL CIRCULATION, THE ZONE OF DISTURBED
WEATHER 01 IS SUBJECTED TO A FAIRLY LOW-LEVEL DIRECTIONAL FLOW WHICH
DIRECTS A TRACK GENERALLY TOWARDS THE SOUTH-SOUTHWEST UNDER THE
EFFECT OF A NEAR EQUATORIAL TROUGH. THIS TRACK TEMPORARILY POSITIONS
THE SYSTEM IN A WEAKLY WINDSHEARED ENVIRONMENT, OFFERING IT A SHORT
PERIOD OF INTENSIFICATION OVER THE NEXT 18 HOURS. THEREAFTER, UNDER
THE EFFECT OF A STRONG WIND SHEAR TO FRONT OF A TROUGH CIRCULATING
FURTHER SOUTH, THE SYSTEM WILL FILL UP AND FOLLOW THE TRADE WINDS
TOWARDS THE MASCAREIGNES AT AN EXPIRY DATE OF 2 TO 3 DAYS.
THIS SYSTEM DOES NOT REQUIRE A REGULAR WARNING. NEXT WARNING TOMORROW
AT 06UTC.=
trajectoire.png
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发表于 2019-7-24 14:32 | 显示全部楼层
WTIO20 FMEE 240628
SECURITE
WARNING FOR METAREA VIII (S)
ISSUED BY METEO-FRANCE/TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTER/LA REUNION 24/07/2019
AT 0600 UTC.
WARNING NUMBER: 002/1 (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN)

10 MINUTES AVERAGE WIND SPEED IN KNOTS (KT)
(WIND GUSTS AT SEA MAY BE ABOUT 40% STRONGER THAN THE AVERAGED WIND)
MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IN HECTOPASCAL (HPA)
(INDICATIVE FIGURE).

WARNING
BEGINNING OF VALIDITY: WEDNESDAY 24/07/2019 AT 0600 UTC.

PHENOMENON: ZONE OF DISTURBED WEATHER 1 1005 HPA
POSITION: WITHIN 30 NM RADIUS OF POINT 17.0 S / 68.8 E
(SEVENTEEN    DECIMAL ZERO   DEGREES SOUTH AND
SIXTY EIGHT    DECIMAL EIGHT   DEGREES EAST) AT 0600 UTC
MOVEMENT: SOUTH 20 KT

THREAT AREAS:
SQUALLY WEATHER EXTENDING UP TO 300 NM IN THE SOUTHERN SEMI-CIRCLE.

CLOCKWISE CIRCULATION 20/25KT AND MODERATE SEAS. GALE FORCE WINDS
30/35KT POSSIBLE FAR FROM THE CENTER IN THE SOUTHERN SEMI-CIRCLE.
STRONG GUSTS UNDER SQUALLS.

FORECAST POSITION AND INTENSITY:
12H, VALID 2019/07/24 AT 18 UTC:
18.7 S / 67.6 E, MAX WIND = 25 KT, ZONE OF DISTURBED WEATHER
24H, VALID 2019/07/25 AT 06 UTC:
18.8 S / 66.2 E, MAX WIND = 25 KT, ZONE OF DISTURBED WEATHER

OTHER INFORMATION:
LAST WARNING ON THIS SYSTEM.=
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发表于 2019-7-24 16:43 | 显示全部楼层
本帖最后由 炎煌深沉 于 2019-7-25 09:40 编辑

ABIO10 PGTW 240900
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL WEATHER ADVISORY FOR THE INDIAN OCEAN
/REISSUED/240900Z-241800ZJUL2019//
RMKS/
1. NORTH INDIAN OCEAN AREA (MALAY PENINSULA WEST TO COAST OF AFRICA):
   A. TROPICAL CYCLONE SUMMARY: NONE.
   B. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE SUMMARY: NONE.
2. SOUTH INDIAN OCEAN AREA (135E WEST TO COAST OF AFRICA):
   A. TROPICAL CYCLONE SUMMARY: NONE.
   B. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE SUMMARY:
      (1) THE AREA OF CONVECTION (INVEST 96S) PREVIOUSLY LOCATED
NEAR 12.2S 69.5E, HAS DISSIPATED AND IS NO LONGER SUSPECT FOR THE
DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE IN THE NEXT 24 HOURS.
      (2) NO OTHER SUSPECT AREAS.
3. JUSTIFICATION FOR REISSUE: DISSIPATED AREA IN 2.B.(1)//
NNNN
abiosair.jpg

ABIO10 PGTW 241800
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL WEATHER ADVISORY FOR THE INDIAN OCEAN
/241800Z-251800ZJUL2019//
RMKS/
1. NORTH INDIAN OCEAN AREA (MALAY PENINSULA WEST TO COAST OF AFRICA):
   A. TROPICAL CYCLONE SUMMARY: NONE.
   B. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE SUMMARY: NONE.
2. SOUTH INDIAN OCEAN AREA (135E WEST TO COAST OF AFRICA):
   A. TROPICAL CYCLONE SUMMARY: NONE.
   B. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE SUMMARY:
      (1) THE AREA OF CONVECTION (INVEST 96S) PREVIOUSLY LOCATED
NEAR 12.2S 69.5E, HAS DISSIPATED AND IS NO LONGER SUSPECT FOR THE
DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE IN THE NEXT 24 HOURS.
      (2) NO OTHER SUSPECT AREAS.
NNNN
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