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[2019] 巴哈马群岛附近热带低压03L - 意外发展,短暂成旋

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发表于 2019-7-21 13:39 | 显示全部楼层 |阅读模式
本帖最后由 颱風巨爵 于 2019-7-24 10:35 编辑

94L INVEST 190721 0600 23.5N 70.2W ATL 25 1014

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1. A tropical wave located about 300 miles east of the Central Bahamas
is producing disorganized showers and a few thunderstorms. Although
environmental conditions are currently unfavorable for development,
they are expected to become a little more conducive over the next
few days while the disturbance moves westward at 10 to 15 mph.
Interests in the Central and Northwest Bahamas, and the southern
Florida peninsula and the Florida Keys should monitor the progress
of this system.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...10 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...low...20 percent.

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参与人数 1金钱 +3 威望 +3 收起 理由
红豆棒冰冰 + 3 + 3 94L

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Wednesday Morning, 3 A.M.,
The Sound of Silence
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21

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强热带风暴

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2304
发表于 2019-7-21 13:42 | 显示全部楼层
本帖最后由 2018.26W 于 2019-7-21 13:43 编辑

two_atl_2d0.png 20190721.0520.goes-16.ir.94L.INVEST.25kts.1014mb.23.5N.70.2W.100pc.jpg
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热带风暴

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发表于 2019-7-21 16:48 | 显示全部楼层
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热带低压

浙是什么玩意

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发表于 2019-7-21 22:34 | 显示全部楼层
在副高南方非常有趣的一个大气扰动,表现于一个背景场东风中一个向北突出的波动,应该是一个热带东风波,正在西移。目前来看没有特别明显的发展,主流数值也暂时没有支持的
20192021400_GOES16-ABI-car-GEOCOLOR-2000x2000.jpg
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强热带风暴

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发表于 2019-7-22 16:07 | 显示全部楼层
本帖最后由 2018.26W 于 2019-7-22 16:13 编辑

ZCZC MIATWOAT ALL
TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM

Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
200 AM EDT Mon Jul 22 2019

For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:

1. A trough of low pressure moving through the Central Bahamas is
producing a small area of showers and thunderstorms mainly along
and to the east of the trough axis. Environmental conditions are
expected to be only marginally conducive for development during
the next couple of days while the trough moves west-northwestward
at around 15 mph. Additional development is not anticipated after
that time due to strong upper-level winds.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...20 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...low...20 percent.

Forecaster Stewart

two_atl_2d0.png two_atl_2d1.png two_atl_5d1.png
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论坛版主-副热带高压

Rank: 7Rank: 7Rank: 7

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发表于 2019-7-22 17:22 | 显示全部楼层
一个很弱的东风波,也许能给受影响地区带来一些短时降雨
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发表于 2019-7-22 21:18 | 显示全部楼层
ZCZC MIATWOAT ALL
TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM

Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
800 AM EDT Mon Jul 22 2019

For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:

1. Showers and thunderstorms over the Northwest Bahamas and the
adjacent waters are associated with a trough of low pressure.
Environmental conditions are expected to be marginally conducive for
development during the next couple of days while the trough moves
west-northwestward to northwestward at around 15 mph. Additional
development is not anticipated after that time due to strong
upper-level winds.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...30 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...low...30 percent.

Forecaster Latto/Pasch
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two_atl_5d0.png
two_atl_5d1.png
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发表于 2019-7-23 03:19 | 显示全部楼层
本帖最后由 红豆棒冰冰 于 2019-7-23 03:22 编辑

ZCZC MIATWOAT ALL
TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM

Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
200 PM EDT Mon Jul 22 2019

For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:

1. Showers and thunderstorms have increased in association with an
area of low pressure located near Andros Island in the Bahamas.
While environmental conditions are only marginally conducive for
development, only a slight increase in the organization of this
system could result in the formation of a tropical depression later
today or tonight.  Additional development is not anticipated after
that time due to strong upper-level winds.  The low is expected to
move northwestward around 15 mph today and north-northwestward to
northward tonight and Tuesday, remaining offshore of the east coast
of the Florida peninsula.  This system will continue to produce
locally heavy rainfall and gusty winds over portions of the
northwest Bahamas through tonight.  Showers and thunderstorms could
also spread over portions of the east coast of the Florida peninsula
tonight and Tuesday.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...medium...60 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...medium...60 percent.

Forecaster Pasch
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000
NOUS42 KNHC 221715
REPRPD
WEATHER RECONNAISSANCE FLIGHTS
CARCAH, NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER, MIAMI, FL.
0115 PM EDT MON 22 JULY 2019
SUBJECT: TROPICAL CYCLONE PLAN OF THE DAY (TCPOD)
         VALID 23/1100Z TO 24/1100Z JULY 2019
         TCPOD NUMBER.....19-055 AMENDMENT

I.  ATLANTIC REQUIREMENTS
    1. SUSPECT AREA (EAST OF FLORIDA)
       FLIGHT ONE -- TEAL 72         FLIGHT TWO -- TEAL 75
       A. 23/1200Z                   A. 23/2330Z,24/0530Z
       B. AFXXX 01BBA INVEST         B. AFXXX 0203A CYCLONE
       C. 23/1015Z                   C. 23/2145Z
       D. 28.5N 80.4W                D. 31.5N 80.0W
       E. 23/1130Z TO 23/1600Z       E. 23/2300Z TO 24/0530Z
       F. SFC TO 10,000 FT           F. SFC TO 10,000 FT
       G. RESOURCES PERMITTING

    2. OUTLOOK FOR SUCCEEDING DAY.....NEGATIVE.

    3. REMARK: BOTH FLIGHTS MOVED UP SIX HOURS AT NHC
       REQUEST.

II. PACIFIC REQUIREMENTS
    1. NEGATIVE RECONNAISSANCE REQUIREMENTS.
    2. OUTLOOK FOR SUCCEEDING DAY.....NEGATIVE.

$$
WJM

NNNN
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发表于 2019-7-23 05:48 | 显示全部楼层
WTNT21 KNGU 221800
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION ALERT//
RMKS/1. FORMATION OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE IS POSSIBLE
WITHIN 100 NM EITHER SIDE OF A LINE FROM 25.3N 78.3W TO 29.2N 81.5W
WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS. AVAILABLE DATA DOES NOT JUSTIFY
ISSUANCE OF NUMBERED TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNINGS AT THIS TIME.
WINDS IN THE AREA ARE ESTIMATED TO BE 20 TO 25 KNOTS. METSAT
IMAGERY AT 221800Z INDICATES THAT A CIRCULATION CENTER IS LOCATED
NEAR 24.6N 77.5W. THE SYSTEM IS MOVING NORTHWESTWARD AT 12 KNOTS.
2. AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE HAS FORMED NEAR ANDROS ISLAND
IN THE CENTRAL BAHAMAS. ALTHOUGH THE ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS
ARE ONLY MARGINALLY CONDUCIVE FOR FURTHER DEVELOPMENT, ONLY A
SLIGHT INCREASE IN CONVECTIVE ORGANIZATION DURING THE NEXT 24
HOURS COULD RESULT IN THE FORMATION OF A TROPICAL CYCLONE. THE
SYSTEM IS FORECAST TO MOVE NORTHWEST AT 10-12 KT DURING THE
NEXT SEVERAL HOURS. AFTER THAT TIME A TURN TOWARD THE NORTH IS
EXPECTED LATER TONIGHT AND TUESDAY WHILE THE LOW REMAINS JUST
EAST OF THE FLORIDA COAST.
3. THIS ALERT WILL BE REISSUED, UPGRADED TO WARNING OR CANCELED
BY 231800Z.//
al942019.gif
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发表于 2019-7-23 05:51 | 显示全部楼层
000
WTNT43 KNHC 222032
TCDAT3

Tropical Depression Three Discussion Number   1
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       AL032019
500 PM EDT Mon Jul 22 2019

Deep convection has increased in association with the small low
pressure area we have been monitoring near the Bahamas.  Animation
of visible satellite images and scatterometer data indicate that a
closed low-level circulation formed today, and therefore advisories
are being initiated on the system.  Conventional surface
observations along with the scatterometer measurements indicate that
the maximum sustained winds in the cyclone are near 25 kt. The
system is in a marginally favorable environment for strengthening,
as a special 1800 UTC sounding taken by the National Weather Service
Forecast Office here in Miami showed a layer of dry air near the 700
mb level.  The global models do not intensify the system, and only a
slight increase in strength appears likely.  In 36 to 48 hours, the
models indicate that this system will be absorbed by a frontal
trough near the U.S. east coast.

The initial motion estimate is northwestward or 305/11 kt.  Over the
next day or so, the tropical cyclone should move around the western
periphery of a mid-level subtropical ridge, with the center of the
depression expected to remain offshore of the Florida east coast and
the southeastern United States until dissipation.  The official
track forecast follows a small consensus of the only models that
were able to follow the center of the depression in the predicted
fields.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT  22/2100Z 25.6N  78.6W   25 KT  30 MPH
12H  23/0600Z 27.2N  79.7W   30 KT  35 MPH
24H  23/1800Z 30.1N  79.6W   30 KT  35 MPH
36H  24/0600Z 33.7N  77.8W   25 KT  30 MPH
48H  24/1800Z...DISSIPATED

$$
Forecaster Pasch
203330_5day_cone_with_line_and_wind.png
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