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[2019] 巴哈马群岛附近热带低压03L - 意外发展,短暂成旋

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论坛版主-副热带高压

ghj说不抢帖会后悔半个月,咕咕咕

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发表于 2019-7-23 12:05 | 显示全部楼层
本帖最后由 炎煌深沉 于 2019-7-23 13:05 编辑

466
WTNT43 KNHC 230232
TCDAT3

Tropical Depression Three Discussion Number   2
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       AL032019
1100 PM EDT Mon Jul 22 2019

The depression has become less organized this evening.  Much of the
deep convection seen earlier in the day has dissipated, and the
cyclone currently consists of a swirl of low-level clouds with some
shower activity.  The initial intensity is held at 25 kt based on
the earlier ASCAT data.

The system is moving northwestward at 9 kt, steered by the
southwestern periphery of the Atlantic subtropical ridge.  A turn to
the north and north-northeast with a notable increase in forward
speed is expected on Tuesday as the depression moves in the
flow between the subtropical ridge and an approaching deep-layer
trough moving across the eastern United States.  The NHC track
forecast is similar to the previous one and keeps the center of the
cyclone offshore of the east coast of Florida.  This prediction is
near the multi-model consensus TVCN.

Significant strengthening of the depression is not expected given
its poor initial state and because it is forecast to move into a
region of strong southwesterly flow aloft by late Tuesday.  In
fact, the global and regional models all show the depression opening
into a trough within the next 24 hours, with the remnants of the
system becoming absorbed within a frontal zone off the southeast
U.S. on Wednesday.  The NHC intensity forecast is a little lower
than the previous one and now shows dissipation occurring sooner, by
36 hours.

Direct impacts from the depression are expected to be limited to 1
to 3 inches of rainfall in the Bahamas and along the east coast of
Florida.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT  23/0300Z 26.1N  79.3W   25 KT  30 MPH
12H  23/1200Z 28.4N  79.8W   25 KT  30 MPH
24H  24/0000Z 31.7N  78.5W   30 KT  35 MPH
36H  24/1200Z...DISSIPATED

$$
Forecaster Cangialosi
023358_5day_cone_with_line_and_wind.png
al0319.gif
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金玉良言

QQ
发表于 2019-7-23 15:40 | 显示全部楼层
这是一个热带气旋。IR上看不出来。
AL, 03, 2019072306,   , BEST,   0, 265N,  795W,  25, 1013, TD,  34, NEQ,    0,    0,    0,    0, 1016,  120,  50,   0,   0,   L,   0,    ,   0,   0,      THREE, M,  0,    ,    0,    0,    0,    0, genesis-num, 007,
AL032019.png
2019AL03_4KMIRIMG_201907230710.GIF
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ghj说不抢帖会后悔半个月,咕咕咕

Rank: 7Rank: 7Rank: 7

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发表于 2019-7-23 17:08 | 显示全部楼层
本帖最后由 炎煌深沉 于 2019-7-23 18:41 编辑

WTNT43 KNHC 230836
TCDAT3

Tropical Depression Three Discussion Number   3
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       AL032019
500 AM EDT Tue Jul 23 2019

Although deep convection has redeveloped near and to the northeast
of the low-level center, the overall convective appearance is
somewhat ragged. However, curved rain bands have been evident in
Doppler radar data from Miami and Melbourne since around 0300 UTC,
and Doppler velocity values of 35-40 kt have been detected in those
bands between 15,000-20,000 ft. In addition, three ships located
about 50 nmi northeast and east of the center have reported 28-29 kt
wind speeds
. Although those wind reports were elevated at 30-60
meters above the surface, they were reported outside of the rain
bands.
Based on this wind speed and radar information, the initial
intensity has been increased to 30 kt. An Air Force Reserve
reconnaissance aircraft will investigate the depression later this
morning to provide a better estimate of the cyclone's intensity.

The depression is now moving northward or 360/10 kt. There is
essentially no change to the previous track or reasoning. The 06Z
track model guidance continues to indicate that the cyclone will
continue to move around western periphery of the sprawling
Bermuda-Azores high pressure ridge.  A northward motion is expected
through today, followed by a turn toward the north-northeast with
an increase in forward speed tonight. A northeastward motion is
forecast on Wednesday, which will keep the center and strongest
winds away from the coast of the southeastern United States. The new
NHC track forecast is similar to the previous advisory and lies
close to the various consensus models.

Although significant strengthening of the depression is not
expected, it is certainly possible that the cyclone could briefly
reach tropical storm status in the 12-to-24-hour period when the
system will be accelerating and the vertical wind shear decreases
to less than 5 kt. However, in the event that the cyclone should
become a tropical storm, the rapid northeastward motion will act to
keep the strongest winds to the east of the center, well offshore
of the U.S. coastal areas. By Wednesday afternoon, the combination
of strong southwesterly vertical wind shear and interaction with an
approaching cold front is expected to result in rapid weakening and
dissipation of the cyclone. The official intensity forecast is
similar to the previous advisory and shows dissipation by 36 hours.

Direct impacts from the depression are expected to be limited to
1 to 3 inches of rainfall across the Bahamas today.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT  23/0900Z 27.0N  79.5W   30 KT  35 MPH
12H  23/1800Z 29.6N  79.4W   30 KT  35 MPH
24H  24/0600Z 34.0N  76.5W   30 KT  35 MPH
36H  24/1800Z...DISSIPATED

$$
Forecaster Stewart
083757_5day_cone_with_line_and_wind.png
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ghj说不抢帖会后悔半个月,咕咕咕

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发表于 2019-7-23 23:05 | 显示全部楼层
本帖最后由 炎煌深沉 于 2019-7-24 08:34 编辑

WTNT43 KNHC 231459
TCDAT3

Remnants Of Three Discussion Number   4
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       AL032019
1100 AM EDT Tue Jul 23 2019

Recent surface observations and data from an Air Force Reserve
reconnaissance aircraft indicate that the depression has
degenerated into a trough of low pressure.  Although the plane
found a weak closed circulation near the northwestern edge of the
convection earlier this morning, the last pass through that area
has shown light southwesterly winds and no evidence of a surface
circulation.  As a result, this will be the final advisory
on this system.  Data from the aircraft indicate that the system is
still producing winds of around 30 kt, and this remains the initial
intensity. The system is likely to continue producing gusty winds
through tonight.

The remnants are moving northward or 360/15 kt.  The remnants should
turn north-northeastward as they become embedded within
southwesterly flow ahead of a cold front near the southeastern
United States.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT  23/1500Z 29.0N  80.0W   30 KT  35 MPH
12H  24/0000Z...DISSIPATED

$$
Forecaster Brown
D4877AFE-DD31-4BEA-AD3E-3D13DB130226.jpeg
EABE1E8E-413C-48B4-A0FD-591DE57B82F6.jpeg
al0319.gif
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