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[2019] 东太平洋94E - 16.8N 133.8W - NHC:40%

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论坛版主-副热带高压

Rank: 7Rank: 7Rank: 7

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发表于 2019-8-12 20:01 | 显示全部楼层 |阅读模式
本帖最后由 颱風巨爵 于 2019-8-17 08:10 编辑

94E INVEST 190812 1200 12.5N 124.0W EPAC 25 1009

20190812.1240.goes-17.ir.94E.INVEST.25kts.1009mb.12.5N.124W.100pc.jpg
two_pac_2d1.png two_pac_5d1.png

1. An elongated area of showers and thunderstorms located just over
1000 miles southwest of the southern tip of the Baja California
peninsula is associated with a trough of low pressure. Environmental
conditions are forecast to become more conducive for development
during the next few days, and a tropical depression could form later
this week while the system moves west- northwestward at around 15
mph.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...20 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...medium...60 percent.

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参与人数 1金钱 +3 威望 +3 收起 理由
红豆棒冰冰 + 3 + 3 94E

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发表于 2019-8-14 13:28 | 显示全部楼层

NHC:40%/60%

1. An elongated low pressure system located more than 1200 miles
west-southwest of the southern tip of the Baja California
peninsula is producing a small area of showers and thunderstorms.
Environmental conditions are expected to be somewhat conducive for
some development during the next few days, and a tropical depression
could form later this week before upper-level winds become
unfavorable. This disturbance is expected to move west-northwestward
at around 10 mph during the next several days.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...medium...40 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...medium...60 percent.
IMG_2814.PNG IMG_2815.PNG
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发表于 2019-8-14 13:58 | 显示全部楼层

NHC:40%/60%

ZCZC MIATWOEP ALL
TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM

Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1100 PM PDT Tue Aug 13 2019

For the eastern North Pacific...east of 140 degrees west longitude:

1. An elongated low pressure system located more than 1200 miles
west-southwest of the southern tip of the Baja California
peninsula is producing a small area of showers and thunderstorms.
Environmental conditions are expected to be somewhat conducive for
some development during the next few days, and a tropical depression
could form later this week before upper-level winds become
unfavorable. This disturbance is expected to move west-northwestward
at around 10 mph during the next several days.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...medium...40 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...medium...60 percent.

Forecaster Stewart
two_pac_2d0.png two_pac_2d1.png two_pac_5d1.png
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发表于 2019-8-14 19:53 | 显示全部楼层

NHC:40%/50%

ZCZC MIATWOEP ALL
TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM

Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
500 AM PDT Wed Aug 14 2019

For the eastern North Pacific...east of 140 degrees west longitude:

1. An elongated low pressure system located more than 1300 miles
west-southwest of the southern tip of the Baja California peninsula
is producing a small area of showers and thunderstorms.
Environmental conditions are expected to be somewhat conducive for
development, and a tropical depression could form over the next few
days before the system reaches cooler waters and upper-level winds
become unfavorable.  This disturbance is forecast to move
west-northwestward at 10 to 15 mph during the next couple of days.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...medium...40 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...medium...50 percent.

Forecaster Berg
two_pac_2d0.png two_pac_2d1.png two_pac_5d1.png
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发表于 2019-8-15 02:46 | 显示全部楼层

NHC:30%/40%

ZCZC MIATWOEP ALL
TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM

Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1100 AM PDT Wed Aug 14 2019

For the eastern North Pacific...east of 140 degrees west longitude:

1. The first few visible satellite images of the day indicate that the
the low pressure system located more than 1300 miles west-southwest
of the southern tip of the Baja California peninsula does not have a
well-defined center, and the circulation remains elongated.  In
addition, the low is producing limited shower and thunderstorm
activity at this time.  Environmental conditions are expected to be
marginally conducive for some development, and a tropical
depression could still form over the next few days before the
system reaches cooler waters and upper-level winds become
unfavorable.  This disturbance is forecast to move west-
northwestward at 10 to 15 mph during the next couple of days.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...30 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...medium...40 percent.

Forecaster Berg
two_pac_2d0.png two_pac_2d1.png two_pac_5d1.png
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发表于 2019-8-15 15:35 | 显示全部楼层

NHC:20%/20%

ZCZC MIATWOEP ALL
TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM

Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1100 PM PDT Wed Aug 14 2019

For the eastern North Pacific...east of 140 degrees west longitude:

1. An elongated area of low pressure is producing limited shower
activity. Only slight development of this disturbance, if any, is
expected during the next couple of days while it moves westward at
10 to 15 mph. Environmental conditions are forecast to become
unfavorable for further development by the weekend.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...20 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...low...20 percent.

Forecaster Zelinsky
two_pac_2d0.png two_pac_2d1.png two_pac_5d1.png
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热带低压

北天极上的小熊座

积分
256
发表于 2019-8-15 20:16 | 显示全部楼层

NHC:10%/10%

本帖最后由 麦尔修Mark 于 2019-8-15 21:12 编辑

ZCZC MIATWOEP ALL
TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM

Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
500 AM PDT Thu Aug 15 2019

For the eastern North Pacific...east of 140 degrees west longitude:

1. An elongated area of low pressure located about 1500 miles
west-southwest of the southern tip of the Baja California peninsula
is producing limited shower activity.  Environmental conditions do
not appear conducive for significant development of this system
while it moves westward at 10 to 15 mph during the next couple of
days.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...10 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...low...10 percent.

2. An area of low pressure is forecast to form south of the coasts of
El Salvador, Guatemala, and southeastern Mexico over the weekend.
Environmental conditions are expected to be conducive for gradual
development of the low while it moves slowly westward early
next week.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...near 0 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...low...30 percent.

Forecaster Berg
two_pac_2d1.png
two_pac_2d0.png
two_pac_5d0.png

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发表于 2019-8-16 03:29 | 显示全部楼层

NHC:10%/10%

ZCZC MIATWOEP ALL
TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM

Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1100 AM PDT Thu Aug 15 2019

For the eastern North Pacific...east of 140 degrees west longitude:

1. An elongated area of low pressure located more than 1500 miles
west-southwest of the southern tip of the Baja California peninsula
is producing a small area of showers and a few thunderstorms.
Environmental conditions do not appear conducive for significant
development of this system while it moves westward at 10 to 15 mph
during the next couple of days.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...10 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...low...10 percent.

Forecaster Berg
two_pac_2d0.png two_pac_2d1.png two_pac_5d1.png
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热带低压

北天极上的小熊座

积分
256
发表于 2019-8-16 08:36 | 显示全部楼层

NHC:10%/10%

ZCZC MIATWOEP ALL
TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM

Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
500 PM PDT Thu Aug 15 2019

For the eastern North Pacific...east of 140 degrees west longitude:

1. An elongated area of low pressure located about 1600 miles
west-southwest of the southern tip of the Baja California peninsula
is producing a small area of disorganized showers. Environmental
conditions do not appear conducive for significant development of
this system while it moves westward at 10 to 15 mph during the next
couple of days.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...10 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...low...10 percent.

Forecaster Zelinsky/Hagen
two_pac_2d1.png
two_pac_2d0.png
two_pac_5d0.png

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发表于 2019-8-16 15:43 | 显示全部楼层

NHC:0%/0%

ZCZC MIATWOEP ALL
TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM CCA

Tropical Weather Outlook...Corrected
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1100 PM PDT Thu Aug 15 2019

Corrected order of paragraphs for graphical product.

For the eastern North Pacific...east of 140 degrees west longitude:

2. An elongated area of low pressure located about 1700 miles west of
the southern tip of the Baja California peninsula is producing
intermittent showers and thunderstorms. Environmental conditions are
not conducive for development and tropical cyclone formation is not
anticipated. The low is forecast to move generally westward at 10 to
15 mph for the new couple of days.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...near 0 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...near 0 percent.

Forecaster Zelinsky
two_pac_2d0.png two_pac_2d2.png two_pac_5d2.png
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