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[2019] 墨西哥以南热带风暴“艾沃”(10E.Ivo)

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发表于 2019-8-16 21:35 | 显示全部楼层 |阅读模式
本帖最后由 颱風巨爵 于 2019-8-27 05:30 编辑

95E INVEST 190816 1200 12.0N 95.0W EPAC 15 NA

20190816.1310.goes-17.ir.95E.INVEST.15kts.1001mb.12N.95W.100pc.jpg
two_pac_2d1(1).png two_pac_5d1(1).png

1. A broad area of low pressure has formed a couple of hundred miles
south of the coasts of El Salvador and Guatemala and is producing a
large area of disorganized showers and thunderstorms.
Environmental conditions are expected to be conducive for gradual
development of the low, and a tropical depression could form by
early next week while the system moves west-northwestward at about
10 mph parallel to the coast of Mexico.  Regardless of development,
moisture associated with the low is forecast to produce heavy
rainfall and possible flash flooding across portions of Central
America during the next several days.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...10 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...medium...50 percent.

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发表于 2019-8-16 22:04 | 显示全部楼层
本帖最后由 三旋共舞 于 2019-8-16 22:07 编辑

EP, 95, 2019081612, , BEST, 0, 100N, 890W, 20, 1010, DB, 34, NEQ, 0, 0, 0, 0, 1012, 150, 70, 0, 0, E, 0, , 0, 0, INVEST, S, 0, , 0, 0, 0, 0, genesis-num, 023, SPAWNINVEST, ep742019 to ep952019
95E INVEST 190816 1200 12.0N 95.0W EPAC 15 NA
JTWC与NHC定位差距较大。
NHC:10N 89W
JTWC:12N 95W
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ghj说不抢帖会后悔半个月,咕咕咕

Rank: 7Rank: 7Rank: 7

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16737
发表于 2019-8-17 06:45 | 显示全部楼层

NHC:30%/70%

本帖最后由 炎煌深沉 于 2019-8-17 06:46 编辑

1. A broad area of low pressure located a couple of hundred miles
south of the coasts of El Salvador and Guatemala is producing a
large area of disorganized showers and thunderstorms.
Environmental conditions are expected to be conducive for
development, and a tropical depression is likely to form by the
middle of next week while the low moves west-northwestward at about
10 mph parallel to the coast of Mexico.  Regardless of development,
moisture associated with the low is forecast to produce heavy
rainfall and possible flash flooding across portions of Central
America and southeastern Mexico during the next several days.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...30 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...high...70 percent.
two_pac_2d1.png
two_pac_5d1.png

NOUS42 KNHC 161500
REPRPD
WEATHER RECONNAISSANCE FLIGHTS
CARCAH, NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER, MIAMI, FL.
1100 AM EDT FRI 16 AUGUST 2019
SUBJECT: TROPICAL CYCLONE PLAN OF THE DAY (TCPOD)
         VALID 17/1100Z TO 18/1100Z AUGUST 2019
         TCPOD NUMBER.....19-080

I.  ATLANTIC REQUIREMENTS
    1. NEGATIVE RECONNAISSANCE REQUIREMENTS.
    2. OUTLOOK FOR SUCCEEDING DAY.....NEGATIVE.

II. PACIFIC REQUIREMENTS
    1. NEGATIVE RECONNAISSANCE REQUIREMENTS.
    2. OUTLOOK FOR SUCCEEDING DAY.....NEGATIVE.
    3. REMARKS:
       A. THE NCAR/NSF G-V WILL BE FLYING A RESEARCH
       MISSION OVER THE EASTERN PACIFIC WEST OF CENTRAL
       AMERICA, DEPARTING MRLB AT 17/1230Z. ALTITUDES WILL
       BE 40,000 TO 45,000 FT AND 32 DROPSONDES WILL BE
       RELEASED.
       B. A NOAA P-3 WILL ALSO BE FLYING A RESEARCH MISSION
       OVER THE EASTERN PACIFIC WEST OF CENTRAL AMERICA,
       DEPARTING MRLB AT 17/1300Z. ALTITUDES WILL BE
       10,000 TO 20,000 FT.

$$
WJM

NNNN
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论坛版主-副热带高压

ghj说不抢帖会后悔半个月,咕咕咕

Rank: 7Rank: 7Rank: 7

积分
16737
发表于 2019-8-17 08:01 | 显示全部楼层

NHC:40%/80%

1. An area of low pressure located a couple of hundred miles south of
the coast of Guatemala is producing a large area of disorganized
showers and thunderstorms. Environmental conditions are expected to
be conducive for development, and a tropical depression is likely to
form early next week while the low moves west-northwestward at about
10 mph parallel to the coast of Mexico. Regardless of development,
moisture associated with the low is forecast to produce heavy
rainfall and possible flash flooding across portions of Central
America and southeastern Mexico during the next few days.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...medium...40 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...high...80 percent.
two_pac_2d1.png
two_pac_5d1.png
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一条通往星星的崎岖道路

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发表于 2019-8-17 13:31 | 显示全部楼层

NHC:40%/80%

本帖最后由 麦尔修Mark 于 2019-8-17 13:36 编辑

ZCZC MIATWOEP ALL
TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM

Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1100 PM PDT Fri Aug 16 2019

For the eastern North Pacific...east of 140 degrees west longitude:

1. An area of low pressure located a couple of hundred miles south of
the coast of Guatemala is producing some disorganized showers and
thunderstorms.  Environmental conditions are expected to be
conducive for development, and a tropical depression is likely to
form early next week while the low moves west-northwestward at about
10 mph parallel to the coast of Mexico. Regardless of development,
moisture associated with the low is forecast to produce heavy
rainfall and possible flash flooding across portions of Central
America and southeastern Mexico during the next few days.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...medium...40 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...high...80 percent.

Forecaster Blake
two_pac_2d1.png
two_pac_5d1.png
two_pac_2d0.png

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论坛版主-副热带高压

ghj说不抢帖会后悔半个月,咕咕咕

Rank: 7Rank: 7Rank: 7

积分
16737
发表于 2019-8-17 19:50 | 显示全部楼层

NHC:40%/80%

本帖最后由 炎煌深沉 于 2019-8-17 20:18 编辑

1. An area of low pressure located a couple of hundred miles south of
the coast of Guatemala is producing some disorganized showers and
thunderstorms.  Environmental conditions are expected to be
conducive for development, and a tropical depression is likely to
form early next week while the low moves west-northwestward at about
10 mph parallel to the coast of Mexico.  Regardless of development,
moisture associated with the low is forecast to produce heavy
rainfall and possible flash flooding across portions of Central
America and southeastern Mexico during the next few days.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...medium...40 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...high...80 percent.
two_pac_2d1.png
two_pac_5d1.png
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热带风暴

一条通往星星的崎岖道路

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发表于 2019-8-17 19:50 | 显示全部楼层
本帖最后由 麦尔修Mark 于 2019-8-17 19:59 编辑

20192291131_GOES16-ABI-eep-GEOCOLOR-2000x2000.jpg

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有贴自远方来,不亦抢乎?

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 楼主| 发表于 2019-8-18 01:51 | 显示全部楼层

NHC:50%/80%

ZCZC MIATWOEP ALL
TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM

Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1100 AM PDT Sat Aug 17 2019

For the eastern North Pacific...east of 140 degrees west longitude:

1. An area of low pressure located a couple of hundred miles south of
the coast of Guatemala continues to produce disorganized showers and
thunderstorms.  NOAA and the National Science Foundation are
currently conducting a research mission in this system, and the
data from the mission indicate that the circulation remains broad
and elongated, and surface pressures are relatively high.  Still,
environmental conditions are expected to be conducive for
development, and a tropical depression is likely to form early next
week while the low moves west-northwestward at about 10 mph parallel
to the coast of Mexico.  Regardless of development, moisture
associated with the low is forecast to produce heavy rainfall and
possible flash flooding across portions of El Salvador, Guatemala,
and southeastern Mexico during the next few days.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...medium...50 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...high...80 percent.

Forecaster Berg
two_pac_2d0.png two_pac_2d1.png two_pac_5d1.png
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论坛版主-副热带高压

ghj说不抢帖会后悔半个月,咕咕咕

Rank: 7Rank: 7Rank: 7

积分
16737
发表于 2019-8-18 08:00 | 显示全部楼层

NHC:50%/90%

本帖最后由 炎煌深沉 于 2019-8-18 08:04 编辑

ZCZC MIATWOEP ALL
TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM

Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
500 PM PDT Sat Aug 17 2019

For the eastern North Pacific...east of 140 degrees west longitude:

1. An area of low pressure located a couple of hundred miles south of
the coast of Guatemala continues to produce disorganized showers and
thunderstorms.  Environmental conditions are expected to become
more conducive for development by early next week, and a tropical
depression is expected to form on Monday or Tuesday
while the low
moves west-northwestward at about 10 mph parallel to the coast of
Mexico.  Moisture associated with the low is forecast to produce
heavy rainfall and possible flash flooding across portions of El
Salvador, Guatemala, and southeastern Mexico during the next few
days.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...medium...50 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...high...90 percent.

Forecaster Blake
two_pac_2d1.png
two_pac_5d1.png
NOUS42 KNHC 171500
REPRPD
WEATHER RECONNAISSANCE FLIGHTS
CARCAH, NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER, MIAMI, FL.
1100 AM EDT SAT 17 AUGUST 2019
SUBJECT: TROPICAL CYCLONE PLAN OF THE DAY (TCPOD)
         VALID 18/1100Z TO 19/1100Z AUGUST 2019
         TCPOD NUMBER.....19-081

I.  ATLANTIC REQUIREMENTS
    1. NEGATIVE RECONNAISSANCE REQUIREMENTS.
    2. OUTLOOK FOR SUCCEEDING DAY.....NEGATIVE.

II. PACIFIC REQUIREMENTS
    1. NEGATIVE RECONNAISSANCE REQUIREMENTS.
    2. OUTLOOK FOR SUCCEEDING DAY.....NEGATIVE.
    3. REMARKS:
       A. THE NCAR/NSF G-V WILL BE FLYING A RESEARCH
       MISSION OVER THE EASTERN PACIFIC WEST OF CENTRAL
       AMERICA, DEPARTING MRLB AT 18/1230Z. ALTITUDES WILL
       BE 40,000 TO 45,000 FT AND 32 DROPSONDES WILL BE
       RELEASED.
       B. A NOAA P-3 WILL ALSO BE FLYING A RESEARCH MISSION
       OVER THE EASTERN PACIFIC WEST OF CENTRAL AMERICA,
       DEPARTING MRLB AT 18/1300Z. ALTITUDES WILL BE
       10,000 TO 20,000 FT.

$$
WJM

NNNN
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台风

有贴自远方来,不亦抢乎?

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 楼主| 发表于 2019-8-18 13:32 | 显示全部楼层

NHC:50%/90%

本帖最后由 2018.26W 于 2019-8-18 13:39 编辑

ZCZC MIATWOEP ALL
TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM

Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1100 PM PDT Sat Aug 17 2019

For the eastern North Pacific...east of 140 degrees west longitude:

1. An area of low pressure located a couple of hundred miles south of
the coast of Guatemala is producing a limited area of disorganized
showers and thunderstorms tonight.  Environmental conditions are
expected to become more conducive for development by early next
week, and a tropical depression is expected to form by Tuesday while
the low moves west-northwestward at about 10 mph parallel to the
coast of Mexico.  Moisture associated with the low is forecast to
produce heavy rainfall and possible flash flooding across portions
of El Salvador, Guatemala, and southeastern Mexico during the next
few days.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...medium...50 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...high...90 percent.

Forecaster Blake
two_pac_2d0.png two_pac_2d1.png two_pac_5d1.png
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