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楼主: 2018.26W

[2019] 墨西哥以南热带风暴“艾沃”(10E.Ivo)

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台风

有贴自远方来,不亦抢乎?

积分
3250
 楼主| 发表于 2019-8-18 19:50 | 显示全部楼层

NHC:50%/90%

本帖最后由 2018.26W 于 2019-8-18 20:12 编辑

ZCZC MIATWOEP ALL
TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM

Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
500 AM PDT Sun Aug 18 2019

For the eastern North Pacific...east of 140 degrees west longitude:

1. Showers and thunderstorms associated with an area of low pressure
located a couple of hundred miles south-southwest of the coast of
Guatemala have changed little in organization since yesterday.
Environmental conditions are expected to become more conducive for
development during the next couple of days, and a tropical
depression is expected to form by Tuesday or Wednesday while the low
moves west-northwestward at about 10 mph parallel to the coast of
Mexico.  Moisture associated with the low is forecast to produce
heavy rainfall and possible flash flooding across portions of El
Salvador, Guatemala, and southeastern Mexico during the next few
days.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...medium...50 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...high...90 percent.

Forecaster Berg
two_pac_2d0.png two_pac_2d1.png two_pac_5d1.png
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发表于 2019-8-19 02:03 | 显示全部楼层

NHC:50%/90%

ZCZC MIATWOEP ALL
TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM

Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1100 AM PDT Sun Aug 18 2019

For the eastern North Pacific...east of 140 degrees west longitude:

1. Showers and thunderstorms associated with an area of low pressure
located a couple of hundred miles south of the Mexico/Guatemala
border remain disorganized.  Environmental conditions are expected
to become more conducive for development during the next couple of
days, and a tropical depression is expected to form by Tuesday or
Wednesday while the low moves west-northwestward at about 10 mph
parallel to the coast of Mexico.  Moisture associated with the low
is forecast to produce heavy rainfall and possible flash flooding
across portions of Guatemala and southeastern Mexico during the next
couple of days.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...medium...50 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...high...90 percent.
two_pac_2d0.png two_pac_2d1.png two_pac_5d1.png
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57

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论坛版主-副热带高压

ghj说不抢帖会后悔半个月,咕咕咕

Rank: 7Rank: 7Rank: 7

积分
16797
发表于 2019-8-19 07:40 | 显示全部楼层

NHC:50%/90%

本帖最后由 炎煌深沉 于 2019-8-19 08:10 编辑

ZCZC MIATWOEP ALL
TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM

Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
500 PM PDT Sun Aug 18 2019

For the eastern North Pacific...east of 140 degrees west longitude:

1. An elongated area of low pressure located a couple of hundred miles
south of Guatemala and southeastern Mexico continues to produce
disorganized showers and thunderstorms.  However, environmental
conditions are forecast to become more conducive for development
during the next couple of days, and a tropical depression is
expected to form by Tuesday or Wednesday
while the low moves
west-northwestward at about 10 mph parallel to the coast of Mexico.
Moisture associated with this disturbance could produce heavy
rainfall and possible flash flooding across portions of Guatemala
and southeastern Mexico during the next couple of days.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...medium...50 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...high...90 percent.

Forecaster Stewart
two_pac_2d1.png
two_pac_5d1.png
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1

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积分
641
发表于 2019-8-19 13:35 | 显示全部楼层

NHC:50%/90%

本帖最后由 POCKETBOX 于 2019-8-19 13:41 编辑

1. An elongated area of low pressure located a couple of hundred miles
south of Guatemala and southeastern Mexico is producing disorganized
showers and thunderstorms.  However, environmental conditions are
forecast to become more conducive for development during the next
couple of days, and a tropical depression is expected to form by
Tuesday or Wednesday while the low moves west-northwestward at about
10 mph parallel to the coast of Mexico.  Moisture associated with
this disturbance could produce heavy rainfall and possible flash
flooding across portions of Guatemala and southeastern Mexico during
the next couple of days.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...medium...50 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...high...90 percent.
two_pac_2d1.png
two_pac_5d1.png
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57

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5604

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1万

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论坛版主-副热带高压

ghj说不抢帖会后悔半个月,咕咕咕

Rank: 7Rank: 7Rank: 7

积分
16797
发表于 2019-8-19 19:50 | 显示全部楼层

NHC:60%/90%

本帖最后由 炎煌深沉 于 2019-8-19 20:06 编辑

1. An elongated area of low pressure located a couple of hundred miles
southeast of the Gulf of Tehuantepec is producing disorganized
showers and thunderstorms.  Environmental conditions are
forecast to become conducive for development during the next
couple of days, and a tropical depression is likely to form by
mid-week while the low moves west-northwestward at about
10 mph parallel to the coast of Mexico.  Moisture associated with
this disturbance could produce heavy rainfall and possible flash
flooding across portions of Guatemala and southeastern Mexico during
the next couple of days.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...medium...60 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...high...90 percent.
two_pac_2d1.png
two_pac_5d1.png
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57

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1万

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论坛版主-副热带高压

ghj说不抢帖会后悔半个月,咕咕咕

Rank: 7Rank: 7Rank: 7

积分
16797
发表于 2019-8-19 21:43 | 显示全部楼层

JTWC:TCFA

本帖最后由 炎煌深沉 于 2019-8-19 22:15 编辑

WTPN21 PHNC 191400
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION ALERT//
RMKS/
1. FORMATION OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE IS POSSIBLE WITHIN
160 NM EITHER SIDE OF A LINE FROM 12.3N 92.0W TO 12.9N 97.9W
WITHIN THE NEXT 12 TO 24 HOURS. AVAILABLE DATA DOES NOT JUSTIFY
ISSUANCE OF NUMBERED TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNINGS AT THIS TIME.
WINDS IN THE AREA ARE ESTIMATED TO BE 28 TO 33 KNOTS. METSAT
IMAGERY AT 181800Z INDICATES THAT A CIRCULATION CENTER IS LOCATED
NEAR 12.3N 92.4W. THE SYSTEM IS MOVING WEST-NORTHWESTWARD AT 04
KNOTS.
2. REMARKS: AN AREA OF CONVECTION (INVEST 95E) HAS PERSISTED NEAR
12.3N 92.4W, APPROXIMATELY 345 NM SOUTHEAST OF PUNTA ESCONDIDA,
MEXICO. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY, SUPPORTED BY A
191126Z F-18 91GHZ MICROWAVE IMAGE, DEPICTS BUILDING DEEP CONVECTION
OBSCURING THE LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC) WITH FORMATIVE
BANDING WRAPPING IN FROM THE NORTH AND EAST. 95E IS CURRENTLY IN A
FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT WITH GOOD EQUATORWARD OUTFLOW, LOW (10 TO 15
KNOT) VERTICAL WIND SHEAR, AND VERY WARM (29 TO 30 CELSIUS) SEA
SURFACE TEMPERATURES. GLOBAL MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT THAT 95E
WILL TRACK ROUGHLY ALONG THE MEXICAN COASTLINE WHILE INTENSIFYING.
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 20 TO 25 KNOTS.
MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 998 MB. THE
POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE
WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS IS HIGH.
3. THIS ALERT WILL BE REISSUED, UPGRADED TO WARNING OR CANCELLED BY
201400Z.//
NNNN
ep9519.gif
95E_191400sair.jpg
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台风

有贴自远方来,不亦抢乎?

积分
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 楼主| 发表于 2019-8-20 01:43 | 显示全部楼层

NHC:70%/90%

本帖最后由 2018.26W 于 2019-8-20 01:57 编辑

ZCZC MIATWOEP ALL
TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM

Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1100 AM PDT Mon Aug 19 2019

For the eastern North Pacific...east of 140 degrees west longitude:

1. Showers and thunderstorms associated with an area of low pressure
located a couple of hundred miles southeast of the southern coast
Mexico have become better organized during the past several hours.
Environmental conditions are  conducive for further development,
and a tropical depression is likely to form during the next day or
two while the low moves west-northwestward at about 10 mph parallel
to the coast of Mexico.  Moisture associated with this disturbance
could produce heavy rainfall and possible flash flooding across
portions of Guatemala and southeastern Mexico during the next couple
of days.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...high...70 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...high...90 percent.

Forecaster Roberts
Screenshot_20190820_015504.jpg two_pac_2d1.png two_pac_5d1.png
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57

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论坛版主-副热带高压

ghj说不抢帖会后悔半个月,咕咕咕

Rank: 7Rank: 7Rank: 7

积分
16797
发表于 2019-8-20 07:39 | 显示全部楼层

NHC:80%/90%

本帖最后由 炎煌深沉 于 2019-8-20 08:04 编辑

1. A low pressure system located less than 200 miles south of the
southern coast of Mexico continues to produce a large area of
cloudiness of thunderstorms. Environmental conditions are conducive
for development, and a tropical depression is likely to form during
the next day
or so while the low moves west-northwestward at about
10 mph, parallel to and just offshore of the coast of Mexico.
Moisture associated with this disturbance could produce heavy
rainfall and possible flash flooding across portions of Guatemala
and southeastern Mexico during the next couple of days.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...high...80 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...high...90 percent.
two_pac_2d1.png
two_pac_5d1.png
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1

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151

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641

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热带风暴

积分
641
发表于 2019-8-20 13:49 | 显示全部楼层

NHC:80%/90%

本帖最后由 POCKETBOX 于 2019-8-20 13:55 编辑

1. A low pressure system located about 200 miles south of the southern
coast of Mexico continues to produce a large area of cloudiness of
thunderstorms. Environmental conditions are conducive for
development, and a tropical depression is likely to form during the
next day or so while the low moves west-northwestward at about 10
mph, parallel to and just offshore of the coast of Mexico. Moisture
associated with this disturbance could produce heavy rainfall and
possible flash flooding across portions of Guatemala and
southeastern Mexico during the next couple of days.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...high...80 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...high...90 percent.
two_pac_2d1.png
two_pac_5d1.png
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1

主题

151

帖子

641

积分

热带风暴

积分
641
发表于 2019-8-20 19:44 | 显示全部楼层

NHC:80%/90%

本帖最后由 POCKETBOX 于 2019-8-20 20:06 编辑

1. A low pressure system located a couple of hundred miles south of the
southern coast of Mexico continues to produce a large area of
cloudiness and thunderstorms.  Environmental conditions are
conducive for development, and a tropical depression is likely to
form during the next day or so while the low moves west-
northwestward at 10 to 15 mph, parallel to and just offshore of the
coast of Mexico.  This system could produce heavy rainfall and flash
flooding over portions of southeastern Mexico during the next couple
of days.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...high...80 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...high...90 percent.
two_pac_2d1.png
two_pac_5d1.png
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