台风论坛

 找回密码
 立即注册
搜索
热搜: 台风
楼主: 2018.26W

[2019] 墨西哥以南热带风暴“艾沃”(10E.Ivo)

[复制链接]

56

主题

5353

帖子

1万

积分

论坛版主-副热带高压

ghj说不抢帖会后悔半个月,咕咕咕

Rank: 7Rank: 7Rank: 7

积分
16477
发表于 2019-8-20 22:30 | 显示全部楼层
本帖最后由 炎煌深沉 于 2019-8-21 07:35 编辑

WTPN21 PHNC 201400
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION ALERT//
REF/A/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/191351Z AUG 19//
REF/B/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/192321Z AUG 19//
NARR/REF A AND B ARE TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION ALERTS//
RMKS/
1. FORMATION OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE IS POSSIBLE WITHIN
140 NM EITHER SIDE OF A LINE FROM 13.6N 99.3W TO 16.2N 108.6W
WITHIN THE NEXT 12 TO 24 HOURS. AVAILABLE DATA DOES NOT JUSTIFY
ISSUANCE OF NUMBERED TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNINGS AT THIS TIME.
WINDS IN THE AREA ARE ESTIMATED TO BE 20 TO 25 KNOTS. METSAT
IMAGERY AT 201200Z INDICATES THAT A CIRCULATION CENTER IS LOCATED
NEAR 13.7N 99.8W. THE SYSTEM IS MOVING WESTWARD AT 13 KNOTS.
2. REMARKS: AN AREA OF CONVECTION (INVEST 95E) PREVIOUSLY LOCATED
NEAR 12.3N 92.4W, IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 13.7N 99.8W, APPROXIMATELY
1483 NM SOUTHEAST OF SAN DIEGO. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE
IMAGERY AND A 201100Z F-16 91GHZ SSMIS MICROWAVE IMAGE DEPICT
BUILDING DEEP CONVECTION OVER A LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION(LLC). 95E IS
CURRENTLY IN A MARGINALLY FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT WITH GOOD
EQUATORWARD OUTFLOW, BUT MODERATE TO HIGH (15 TO 25 KNOTS) VERTICAL
WIND SHEAR. SSTS ARE FAVORABLE AT 29 TO 30 DEGREES CELSIUS. GLOBAL
MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT THAT 95E WILL TRACK NORTHWESTWARD ALONG
THE MEXICAN COASTLINE. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED
AT 20 TO 25 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE
NEAR 998 MB. THE POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT
TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS IS HIGH. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED
SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 20 TO 25 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL
PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1004 MB. THE POTENTIAL FOR THE
DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24
HOURS IS HIGH. THIS SUPERSEDES REF A.
3. THIS ALERT WILL BE REISSUED, UPGRADED TO WARNING OR CANCELLED BY
211400Z.
4. SEE REF B FOR DETAILS ON A TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION ALERT
LOCATED NEAR 14.0N 120.6W
//
NNNN

WTPN21 PHNC 201400
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION ALERT (INVEST 95E)//
REF/A/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/191351Z AUG 19//
AMPN/REF IS TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION ALERT (WTPN21 PHNC 191400)//
RMKS/
1. FORMATION OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE IS POSSIBLE WITHIN
140 NM EITHER SIDE OF A LINE FROM 13.6N 99.3W TO 16.2N 108.6W
WITHIN THE NEXT 12 TO 24 HOURS. AVAILABLE DATA DOES NOT JUSTIFY
ISSUANCE OF NUMBERED TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNINGS AT THIS TIME.
WINDS IN THE AREA ARE ESTIMATED TO BE 20 TO 25 KNOTS. METSAT
IMAGERY AT 201200Z INDICATES THAT A CIRCULATION CENTER IS LOCATED
NEAR 13.7N 99.8W. THE SYSTEM IS MOVING WESTWARD AT 13 KNOTS.
2. REMARKS: AN AREA OF CONVECTION (INVEST 95E) PREVIOUSLY LOCATED
NEAR 12.3N 92.4W, IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 13.7N 99.8W, APPROXIMATELY
1483 NM SOUTHEAST OF SAN DIEGO. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE
IMAGERY AND A 201100Z F-16 91GHZ SSMIS MICROWAVE IMAGE DEPICT
BUILDING DEEP CONVECTION OVER A LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION(LLC). 95E IS
CURRENTLY IN A MARGINALLY FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT WITH GOOD
EQUATORWARD OUTFLOW, BUT MODERATE TO HIGH (15 TO 25 KNOTS) VERTICAL
WIND SHEAR. SSTS ARE FAVORABLE AT 29 TO 30 DEGREES CELSIUS. GLOBAL
MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT THAT 95E WILL TRACK NORTHWESTWARD ALONG
THE MEXICAN COASTLINE. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED
AT 20 TO 25 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE
NEAR 998 MB. THE POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT
TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS IS HIGH. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED
SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 20 TO 25 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL
PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1004 MB. THE POTENTIAL FOR THE
DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24
HOURS IS HIGH. THIS SUPERSEDES REF A.
3. THIS ALERT WILL BE REISSUED, UPGRADED TO WARNING OR CANCELLED BY
211400Z.
4. SEE REF B FOR DETAILS ON A TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION ALERT
LOCATED NEAR 14.0N 120.6W
//
NNNN
ep9519.gif
95E_201400sair.jpg
回复

使用道具 举报

13

主题

878

帖子

2680

积分

台风

积分
2680
发表于 2019-8-21 01:52 | 显示全部楼层

NHC:80%/90%

ZCZC MIATWOEP ALL
TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM

Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1100 AM PDT Tue Aug 20 2019

For the eastern North Pacific...east of 140 degrees west longitude:

1. A low pressure system located a couple of hundred miles south of the
southern coast of Mexico continues to produce a large area of
cloudiness and thunderstorms.  Although this system has not become
better organized since yesterday, environmental conditions
are conducive for development, and a tropical depression is likely
to form during the next day or so while the low moves west-
northwestward at 10 to 15 mph, parallel to and just offshore of the
coast of Mexico.  This system could produce heavy rainfall and flash
flooding over portions of southeastern Mexico during the next couple
of days.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...high...80 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...high...90 percent.
two_pac_2d0.png two_pac_2d1.png two_pac_5d1.png
回复

使用道具 举报

56

主题

5353

帖子

1万

积分

论坛版主-副热带高压

ghj说不抢帖会后悔半个月,咕咕咕

Rank: 7Rank: 7Rank: 7

积分
16477
发表于 2019-8-21 07:26 | 显示全部楼层

NHC:90%/90%

本帖最后由 炎煌深沉 于 2019-8-21 07:44 编辑

1. Showers and thunderstorms associated with a large low pressure
system located a couple of hundred miles south of the southern
coast of Mexico are beginning to show some signs of organization.
Environmental conditions are conducive for additional development,
and a tropical depression is likely to form during the next day or
so while the system moves west-northwestward at 10 to 15 mph,
parallel to and just offshore of the coast of Mexico.  This system
could produce locally heavy rainfall along portions of the coast of
southern Mexico during the next day or two.  Additional information
on this system can be found in High Seas Forecasts issued by the
National Weather Service.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...high...90 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...high...90 percent.
two_pac_2d1.png
two_pac_5d1.png
回复

使用道具 举报

1

主题

151

帖子

641

积分

热带风暴

积分
641
发表于 2019-8-21 13:33 | 显示全部楼层

NHC:90%/90%

本帖最后由 POCKETBOX 于 2019-8-21 13:37 编辑

Showers and thunderstorms associated with a large low pressure
system located a couple of hundred miles south of the southern coast
of Mexico continue to show signs of becoming better organized.
Additional development is anticipated and a tropical depression is
likely to form during the next day or so while the system moves
west-northwestward at 10 to 15 mph, parallel to and just offshore of
the coast of Mexico.  This system could produce locally heavy
rainfall along portions of the coast of southern Mexico during the
next day or two.  Additional information on this system can be found
in High Seas Forecasts issued by the National Weather Service.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...high...90 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...high...90 percent.
two_pac_2d1.png
two_pac_5d1.png
回复

使用道具 举报

56

主题

5353

帖子

1万

积分

论坛版主-副热带高压

ghj说不抢帖会后悔半个月,咕咕咕

Rank: 7Rank: 7Rank: 7

积分
16477
发表于 2019-8-21 19:26 | 显示全部楼层

NHC:100%/100%

本帖最后由 炎煌深沉 于 2019-8-21 19:42 编辑

1. Satellite imagery and satellite-derived wind data indicate that a
tropical cyclone is developing several hundred miles south-southeast
of the southern tip of the Baja California peninsula. If this trend
continues, then advisories will be initiated later this morning for
a tropical depression or tropical storm.
This system could produce
locally heavy rainfall along portions of the coast of southern
Mexico during the next day or two as it moves west-northwestward.
Additional information on this system can be found in High Seas
Forecasts issued by the National Weather Service.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...high...near 100 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...high...near 100 percent.
two_pac_2d1.png
two_pac_5d1.png
回复

使用道具 举报

56

主题

5353

帖子

1万

积分

论坛版主-副热带高压

ghj说不抢帖会后悔半个月,咕咕咕

Rank: 7Rank: 7Rank: 7

积分
16477
发表于 2019-8-21 21:31 | 显示全部楼层
本帖最后由 炎煌深沉 于 2019-8-21 22:04 编辑

WTPN21 PHNC 211400
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION ALERT (INVEST 95E) REISSUED//
REF/A/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/201351Z AUG 19//
AMPN/REF IS TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION ALERT (WTPN21 PHNC 201400)//
RMKS/
1. FORMATION OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE IS POSSIBLE WITHIN
140 NM EITHER SIDE OF A LINE FROM 13.6N 99.3W TO 16.2N 108.6W
WITHIN THE NEXT 12 TO 24 HOURS. AVAILABLE DATA DOES NOT JUSTIFY
ISSUANCE OF NUMBERED TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNINGS AT THIS TIME.
WINDS IN THE AREA ARE ESTIMATED TO BE 20 TO 25 KNOTS. METSAT
IMAGERY AT 201200Z INDICATES THAT A CIRCULATION CENTER IS LOCATED
NEAR 14.2N 101.0W. THE SYSTEM IS MOVING WESTWARD AT 13 KNOTS.
2. REMARKS: AN AREA OF CONVECTION (INVEST 95E) PREVIOUSLY LOCATED
NEAR 13.7N 99.8W, IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 14.2N 101.0W, APPROXIMATELY
1409 NM SOUTHEAST OF SAN DIEGO. ANIMATED INFRARED SATELLITE
IMAGERY AND A 211241Z F-18 91GHZ SSMIS MICROWAVE IMAGE DEPICT
BUILDING DEEP CONVECTION OVER A LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION(LLC). 95E IS
CURRENTLY IN A FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT WITH GOOD EQUATORWARD OUTFLOW
AND LOW (<15 KNOTS) VERTICAL WIND SHEAR. SSTS ARE FAVORABLE AT 29 TO
30 DEGREES CELSIUS. GLOBAL MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT THAT 95E
WILL TRACK NORTHWESTWARD ALONG THE MEXICAN COASTLINE. MAXIMUM
SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 20 TO 25 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA
LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 998 MB. THE POTENTIAL FOR THE
DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24
HOURS REMAINS HIGH. THIS SUPERSEDES REF A (WTPN21 PHNC 201400).
3. THIS ALERT WILL BE REISSUED, UPGRADED TO WARNING OR CANCELLED BY
221400Z.//
NNNN
ep9519.gif
95E_211400sair.jpg
回复

使用道具 举报

56

主题

5353

帖子

1万

积分

论坛版主-副热带高压

ghj说不抢帖会后悔半个月,咕咕咕

Rank: 7Rank: 7Rank: 7

积分
16477
发表于 2019-8-21 21:47 | 显示全部楼层

升格10E

本帖最后由 炎煌深沉 于 2019-8-21 22:14 编辑

EP, 10, 2019082112,   , BEST,   0, 152N, 1065W,  30, 1007, DB,  34, NEQ,    0,    0,    0,    0, 1010,  180,  60,   0,   0,   E,   0,    ,   0,   0,        TEN, M,  0,    ,    0,    0,    0,    0, genesis-num, 023, TRANSITIONED, epB52019 to ep102019,
goes16_vis-swir_95E_201908211345.jpg
goes16_ir-dvorak_95E_201908211345.jpg
回复

使用道具 举报

56

主题

5353

帖子

1万

积分

论坛版主-副热带高压

ghj说不抢帖会后悔半个月,咕咕咕

Rank: 7Rank: 7Rank: 7

积分
16477
发表于 2019-8-21 22:51 | 显示全部楼层

NHC issuing advisories for the Eastern Pacific on TD Ten-E

本帖最后由 炎煌深沉 于 2019-8-21 23:03 编辑

WTPZ45 KNHC 211451
TCDEP5

Tropical Depression Ten-E Discussion Number   1
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       EP102019
900 AM MDT Wed Aug 21 2019

Satellite imagery and microwave data indicate that the disturbance
that has been tracked to the south of Mexico for the past several
days has become much better organized since yesterday. An early
morning scatterometer pass showed a nearly closed surface low with
peak winds of 30 kt. Since that time, the appearance of the
disturbance has continued to improve, suggesting that the low has
most likely closed at the surface. Based on this data, advisories
are being initiated for Tropical Depression 10-E. Subjective Dvorak
estimates from both TAFB and SAB suggest a 30 kt intensity, which
will be the initial intensity for this advisory.

The depression's initial motion is 285/16 kt. The cyclone is being
steered to the south of a mid-level ridge that extends from
northwestern Mexico across much of the eastern Pacific. Model
guidance is in good agreement that a weakness will develop in this
ridge over the next day or so to the northwest of the depression.
This should cause the system to make a turn to the northwest with a
decrease in forward speed in about 24 hours. The depression is
then forecast to continue to move northwest through the remainder
of the forecast period.

The cyclone is expected to move over very warm waters of around 30
C, through a moist environment, and with 10-15 kt of northeasterly
shear over the next 48 hours. With these conditions, steady
strengthening is forecast during that time frame, and the depression
is expected to become a tropical storm later today, and a minimal
hurricane in 48 hours. The official forecast is close to the
model intensity guidance consensus through 24 hours, and is then on
the higher end of the guidance from 24 to 72 hours out of respect
for a possible decrease in shear. In a few days the cyclone will
move over much cooler waters and into a stable air mass while
undergoing increasing shear. This will cause the cyclone to weaken
and it is expected to become a convection-free post-tropical
cyclone by day 5.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT  21/1500Z 15.4N 107.3W   30 KT  35 MPH
12H  22/0000Z 15.9N 109.6W   40 KT  45 MPH
24H  22/1200Z 16.6N 112.0W   50 KT  60 MPH
36H  23/0000Z 17.5N 114.0W   60 KT  70 MPH
48H  23/1200Z 18.5N 115.4W   65 KT  75 MPH
72H  24/1200Z 21.0N 117.1W   60 KT  70 MPH
96H  25/1200Z 24.4N 118.7W   45 KT  50 MPH
120H  26/1200Z 27.6N 120.9W   35 KT  40 MPH...POST-TROPICAL

$$
Forecaster Latto/Pasch
3FC4BCD4-0E0A-4B32-8387-97F5F0D8358E.png
回复

使用道具 举报

56

主题

5353

帖子

1万

积分

论坛版主-副热带高压

ghj说不抢帖会后悔半个月,咕咕咕

Rank: 7Rank: 7Rank: 7

积分
16477
发表于 2019-8-22 05:02 | 显示全部楼层

NHC issuing advisories for the Eastern Pacific on TS Ivo

本帖最后由 炎煌深沉 于 2019-8-22 08:03 编辑

WTPZ45 KNHC 212034
TCDEP5

Tropical Storm Ivo Discussion Number   2
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       EP102014
300 PM MDT Wed Aug 21 2019

Over the past several hours the cyclone has exhibited an ongoing
increase in organization, with a curved band wrapping around the
low level center apparent in both satellite imagery and microwave
data. The initial intensity has been increased to 40 kt and this
is a blend of the subjective Dvorak intensity estimates from TAFB
and SAB.

Ivo's initial motion is 285/17 kt. A mid-level ridge to the north of
the cyclone will continue to steer it to the west-northwest through
much of tonight. By Thursday, a weakness is expected to develop to
the northwest of the cyclone which will result in a turn to the
northwest with a decrease in forward speed. The cyclone is then
forecast to continue to move northwest through the remainder of the
forecast period.

Ivo will be over warm SSTs near 30C and in a moist environment for
the next 48 hours, which should favor intensification. And,
although the SHIPS guidance suggests 15 kt of northeasterly shear
may be affecting the cyclone, the satellite appearance does not
suggest that this shear is having much of impact at this time. Based
on the favorable environment, steady strengthening is forecast,
and Ivo is expected to become a hurricane by Friday. By 72 hours,
the cyclone will begin to move over much cooler waters and into a
stable air mass while undergoing increasing southwesterly shear.
This should cause the cyclone to weaken and it is expected to become
a convection-free post-tropical cyclone by day 5. The official
forecast has been increased slightly from the previous one and is
close to the corrected consensus HCCA.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT  21/2100Z 15.8N 109.5W   40 KT  45 MPH
12H  22/0600Z 16.4N 111.6W   50 KT  60 MPH
24H  22/1800Z 17.2N 113.8W   60 KT  70 MPH
36H  23/0600Z 18.2N 115.3W   70 KT  80 MPH
48H  23/1800Z 19.5N 116.4W   70 KT  80 MPH
72H  24/1800Z 22.5N 117.9W   55 KT  65 MPH
96H  25/1800Z 25.8N 119.9W   40 KT  45 MPH
120H  26/1800Z 28.8N 121.9W   30 KT  35 MPH...POST-TROPICAL

$$
Forecaster Latto/Pasch

WTPZ45 KNHC 212203 CCA
TCDEP5

Tropical Storm Ivo Discussion Number   2...CORRECTED
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       EP102019
300 PM MDT Wed Aug 21 2019

Corrected storm ID in header block

Over the past several hours the cyclone has exhibited an ongoing
increase in organization, with a curved band wrapping around the
low level center apparent in both satellite imagery and microwave
data. The initial intensity has been increased to 40 kt and this
is a blend of the subjective Dvorak intensity estimates from TAFB
and SAB.

Ivo's initial motion is 285/17 kt. A mid-level ridge to the north of
the cyclone will continue to steer it to the west-northwest through
much of tonight. By Thursday, a weakness is expected to develop to
the northwest of the cyclone which will result in a turn to the
northwest with a decrease in forward speed. The cyclone is then
forecast to continue to move northwest through the remainder of the
forecast period.

Ivo will be over warm SSTs near 30C and in a moist environment for
the next 48 hours, which should favor intensification. And,
although the SHIPS guidance suggests 15 kt of northeasterly shear
may be affecting the cyclone, the satellite appearance does not
suggest that this shear is having much of impact at this time. Based
on the favorable environment, steady strengthening is forecast,
and Ivo is expected to become a hurricane by Friday. By 72 hours,
the cyclone will begin to move over much cooler waters and into a
stable air mass while undergoing increasing southwesterly shear.
This should cause the cyclone to weaken and it is expected to become
a convection-free post-tropical cyclone by day 5. The official
forecast has been increased slightly from the previous one and is
close to the corrected consensus HCCA.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT  21/2100Z 15.8N 109.5W   40 KT  45 MPH
12H  22/0600Z 16.4N 111.6W   50 KT  60 MPH
24H  22/1800Z 17.2N 113.8W   60 KT  70 MPH
36H  23/0600Z 18.2N 115.3W   70 KT  80 MPH
48H  23/1800Z 19.5N 116.4W   70 KT  80 MPH
72H  24/1800Z 22.5N 117.9W   55 KT  65 MPH
96H  25/1800Z 25.8N 119.9W   40 KT  45 MPH
120H  26/1800Z 28.8N 121.9W   30 KT  35 MPH...POST-TROPICAL

$$
Forecaster Latto/Pasch
203529_5day_cone_with_line_and_wind.png
ep1019.gif
10E_211800sair.jpg
20190821.2242.f15.85rgb.10E.IVO.40kts.1004mb.15.6N.108.8W.055pc.jpg
回复

使用道具 举报

56

主题

5353

帖子

1万

积分

论坛版主-副热带高压

ghj说不抢帖会后悔半个月,咕咕咕

Rank: 7Rank: 7Rank: 7

积分
16477
发表于 2019-8-22 10:38 | 显示全部楼层
本帖最后由 炎煌深沉 于 2019-8-22 11:58 编辑

WTPZ45 KNHC 220235
TCDEP5

Tropical Storm Ivo Discussion Number   3
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       EP102019
900 PM MDT Wed Aug 21 2019

An earlier GMI microwave overpass that arrived after the release of
the previous advisory revealed a tightly coiled band of convection
that wrapped around the southern and southeastern portion of the
circulation.  More recent microwave imagery, however, shows that
the system is being impacted by northeasterly shear with the center
now located near the northeast portion of the primary convective
mass.  Objective and subjective Dvorak intensity estimates
unanimously supported an intensity of 45 kt, and the initial
intensity has been increased accordingly.

Ivo is expected to remain over warm SSTs and in a moist environment
during the next 36 h or so.  These conditions favor strengthening
however the aforementioned moderate northeasterly shear is likely
to temper the rate of intensification during that time.  The NHC
forecast calls for steady strengthening and again brings Ivo to
hurricane status within 36 h. After that time, cooler waters and a
drier and more stable air mass should cause weakening, and Ivo is
forecast to become post-tropical by day 4.  The official intensity
forecast shows a peak a little higher than most of the guidance but
otherwise is close to the model consensus.

Ivo is moving west-northwestward or 285/16 kt. The storm should
slow down later tonight or Thursday as it begins to move around the
southwestern portion of a subtropical ridge.  In about 24 hours, a
weakness is expected to develop in the ridge which is expected to
cause Ivo to turn northwestward.  A general northwestward motion
should then continue through the remainder of the forecast period.
An additional reduction in forward speed is likely late in the
forecast period as the system weakens and becomes vertically
shallow.  The track guidance as trended toward a slower motion
after 72 hours, and the updated NHC track has been adjusted a little
southward.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT  22/0300Z 16.1N 111.3W   45 KT  50 MPH
12H  22/1200Z 16.5N 113.2W   55 KT  65 MPH
24H  23/0000Z 17.6N 114.9W   60 KT  70 MPH
36H  23/1200Z 18.8N 116.0W   70 KT  80 MPH
48H  24/0000Z 20.0N 116.9W   65 KT  75 MPH
72H  25/0000Z 23.2N 118.5W   50 KT  60 MPH
96H  26/0000Z 26.4N 120.4W   35 KT  40 MPH...POST-TROPICAL
120H  27/0000Z 28.8N 121.8W   25 KT  30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW

$$
Forecaster Brown
023545_5day_cone_with_line_and_wind.png
ep1019.gif
10E_220000sair.jpg
20190822.0024.noaa19.89rgb.10E.IVO.45kts.999mb.15.9N.110.6W.100pc.jpg
回复

使用道具 举报

您需要登录后才可以回帖 登录 | 立即注册

本版积分规则

Archiver|手机版|小黑屋|台风论坛 ( 沪ICP备11041484号-3 )

GMT+8, 2019-11-15 11:57

Powered by Discuz! X3.4 Licensed

© 2001-2017 Comsenz Inc.

快速回复 返回顶部 返回列表