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[2019] 墨西哥以南热带风暴“艾沃”(10E.Ivo)

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 楼主| 发表于 2019-8-22 12:25 | 显示全部楼层
本帖最后由 2018.26W 于 2019-8-22 18:01 编辑

全球热带气旋监测报告
预报:孙舒悦  签发:董 林  2019 年 08 月 22 日 10 时
“伊沃”在东北太平洋洋面上生成
东太平洋热带风暴“伊沃”(IVO)已于今天(22日)早晨(北京时,下同)在东北太平洋洋面上生成,上午8点钟其中心位于墨西哥南下加利福尼亚州圣卢卡斯角(THE SOUTHERN TIP OF BAJA CALIFORNIA)偏南方向约780公里的东北太平洋洋面上,就是北纬15.9度、西经110.6度,中心附近最大风力有9级(23米/秒,相当于我国的热带风暴级),中心最低气压为1000百帕。

预计,“伊沃”将以每小时30公里左右的速度向西偏北方向移动,强度逐渐加强。
SEVP_NMC_TCMO_SFER_EME_AGLB_L89_P9_20190822020002400_XML_1.jpg
卫星红外监测图像
(北京时间2019年8月22日08时03分)

“钱特尔”减弱为热带低压

北大西洋热带风暴“钱特尔”(CHANTAL)已于今天(22日)早晨减弱为热带低压,上午8点钟其中心位于加拿大新斯科舍省哈利法克斯(HALIFAX)东南方约1380公里的北大西洋洋面上,就是北纬39.6度、西经48.3度,中心附近最大风力有7级(15米/秒,相当于我国的热带低压级),中心最低气压为1010百帕。

预计,“钱特尔”将以每小时30公里左右的速度向东偏南方向移动,强度先维持然后逐渐减弱。
(这是关于“钱特尔”的最后一期监测公报)

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(北京时间2019年8月22日08时02分)
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发表于 2019-8-22 16:58 | 显示全部楼层
本帖最后由 炎煌深沉 于 2019-8-22 18:22 编辑

WTPZ45 KNHC 220842
TCDEP5

Tropical Storm Ivo Discussion Number   4
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       EP102019
300 AM MDT Thu Aug 22 2019

The cloud pattern associated with Ivo is a little better organized
and consists of a circular mass of convection surrounded by a well-
defined cyclonically curved band. The center appears to be more
embedded under the canopy than several hours ago. Despite the
improvement, recent scatterometer data show that the winds have not
increased yet and are between 40 and 45 kt.  Because the cloud
pattern has improved since then, the initial intensity has been
increased to 50 kt, which is the consensus among TAFB, SAB and
SATCON estimates.

The environment during the next 36 hours should favor Ivo to
strengthen a little more and reach hurricane status. Thereafter,
Ivo should begin to encounter dry air and cooler waters, resulting
in gradual weakening. By day 4, Ivo should be over 20 degree Celsius
waters and become a remnant low void of deep convection. The
intensity forecast follows very closely the HCCA solution and is a
little higher than the consensus.

Satellite data suggest that the center of Ivo has either moved a
little bit south of due west or it has reformed closer to the
convection with a decrease in forward speed. However, an average of
the past 6 to 12 hours gives a motion toward the west or 270 degrees
at 11 kt. Ivo should be reaching the southwestern edge of a
subtropical ridge in 12 to 24 hours, and this flow pattern should
steer the cyclone more toward the west-northwest and northwest. This
general motion should then continue until the end of the forecast
period. The NHC forecast is a little to the right of the previous
one, but it is still on the western edge of the guidance envelope
and in between the HFIP corrected consensus HCCA and the multi-model
average TVCE.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT  22/0900Z 15.8N 112.5W   50 KT  60 MPH
12H  22/1800Z 16.2N 114.1W   55 KT  65 MPH
24H  23/0600Z 17.4N 115.3W   60 KT  70 MPH
36H  23/1800Z 19.0N 116.3W   65 KT  75 MPH
48H  24/0600Z 20.7N 117.1W   55 KT  65 MPH
72H  25/0600Z 24.6N 119.2W   35 KT  40 MPH
96H  26/0600Z 28.0N 121.5W   30 KT  35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
120H  27/0600Z 30.5N 123.5W   25 KT  30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW

$$
Forecaster Avila
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 楼主| 发表于 2019-8-22 18:02 | 显示全部楼层
全球热带气旋监测报告
预报:孙舒悦  签发:董 林   2019 年  08 月  22 日  18 时
“伊沃”将向偏西方向移动
东北太平洋热带风暴“伊沃”(IVO)的中心今天(22日)下午2点钟(北京时,下同)位于墨西哥南下加利福尼亚州圣卢卡斯角(THE SOUTHERN TIP OF BAJA CALIFORNIA)南偏西方向约830公里的东北太平洋洋面上,就是北纬15.7度、西经112.0度,中心附近最大风力有9级(24米/秒,相当于我国的热带风暴级),中心最低气压为998百帕。

预计,“伊沃”将以每小时20公里左右的速度向偏西方向移动,强度逐渐加强。
SEVP_NMC_TCMO_SFER_EME_AGLB_L89_P9_20190822100002400_XML_1.gif
卫星红外监测图像

(北京时间2019年8月22日14时00分)
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发表于 2019-8-22 22:42 | 显示全部楼层
本帖最后由 炎煌深沉 于 2019-8-23 07:31 编辑

ZCZC MIATCDEP5 ALL
TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM

Tropical Storm Ivo Discussion Number   5
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       EP102019
900 AM MDT Thu Aug 22 2019

The cyclone continues to gradually improve in organization.
Microwave data show that there is a small eye trying to form beneath
Ivo's small central dense overcast, and satellite intensity
estimates are rising.  Consequently, the initial wind speed is set
to 55 kt, which matches the TAFB/SAB fixes.  Further strengthening
is anticipated in the short term since Ivo has a developing inner
core and is over very warm waters with moderate shear.  The models
are pretty consistent about showing an increase in shear by tomorrow
while the cyclone turns to the northwest.  Thus the intensity
forecast is leveled off at that time, then a slow weakening is
shown beyond 36 h as Ivo begins its inevitable decline over cooler
eastern Pacific waters and in more stable air.  Remnant low status
is anticipated just after 72 h since Ivo will be over 23C or cooler
waters by then.  Little change was made to the previous intensity
forecast except for a small rise at 12 h to account for the recent
initial intensity increase.

Similar to many eastern Pacific cyclones this year, the center has
re-formed a bit to the south in the central dense overcast,
yielding an initial motion of 270/10.  The storm should turn
northwestward tomorrow due to an upper-level trough dropping over
the eastern Pacific south of California, which helps erode a
mid-level ridge over mainland Mexico.  The ridge stays weak through
the weekend, causing Ivo to move north-northwestward until
dissipation.  The eastward model trend at long range continues, so
the NHC forecast is adjusted in that direction. It should be noted
that none of the guidance still show a direct threat to Mexico at
this time.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT  22/1500Z 15.7N 113.6W   55 KT  65 MPH
12H  23/0000Z 16.4N 114.8W   65 KT  75 MPH
24H  23/1200Z 17.9N 116.0W   65 KT  75 MPH
36H  24/0000Z 19.5N 116.8W   65 KT  75 MPH
48H  24/1200Z 21.2N 117.6W   55 KT  65 MPH
72H  25/1200Z 25.0N 119.5W   40 KT  45 MPH
96H  26/1200Z 28.0N 121.0W   25 KT  30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
120H  27/1200Z...DISSIPATED

$$
Forecaster Blake

NNNN
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发表于 2019-8-23 05:09 | 显示全部楼层
本帖最后由 炎煌深沉 于 2019-8-23 07:30 编辑

WTPZ45 KNHC 222032
TCDEP5

Tropical Storm Ivo Discussion Number   6
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       EP102019
300 PM MDT Thu Aug 22 2019

Visible satellite images show a bit of a surprise with Ivo this
afternoon.  The system is not as well organized as earlier
microwave data displayed, with the center almost partially exposed
on the northeastern side of the central dense overcast.  The
initial wind speed is held at 55 kt, which is in line with TAFB/SAB
estimates and 50-55 kt ASCAT-C winds.  With shear still forecast to
increase overnight, only slight intensification of Ivo is
anticipated.  While Ivo could still become a hurricane, almost all
of the guidance has backed off on this cycle.  Weakening should
begin over the weekend when the storm moves over progressive cooler
waters.  Convection is likely to dissipate in about 72 hours, and
post-tropical status of Ivo is forecast at that time.  Overall the
new forecast is reduced about 5 kt from the previous one, near or
slightly above the model consensus.

Ivo has turned west-northwestward, or 295/8 kt. The storm should
turn to the northwest tomorrow and north-northwest on Saturday due
to steering from a mid-level ridge over Mexico.  Model guidance is
coming into better agreement on this course, with fairly small
variations.  Overall, the small eastward trend seen in the guidance
continues, and the new NHC prediction is shifted a little eastward
at long range.  Still, none of the guidance still show a direct
tropical cyclone threat to Mexico at this time.

It is worth noting that the current size of Ivo has been greatly
increased due to the ASCAT-C data.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT  22/2100Z 16.1N 114.1W   55 KT  65 MPH
12H  23/0600Z 17.0N 114.9W   60 KT  70 MPH
24H  23/1800Z 18.5N 116.0W   60 KT  70 MPH
36H  24/0600Z 20.2N 116.9W   55 KT  65 MPH
48H  24/1800Z 22.0N 117.8W   45 KT  50 MPH
72H  25/1800Z 25.9N 119.7W   35 KT  40 MPH...POST-TROPICAL
96H  26/1800Z 28.5N 121.0W   20 KT  25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
120H  27/1800Z...DISSIPATED

$$
Forecaster Blake
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发表于 2019-8-23 10:40 | 显示全部楼层
本帖最后由 炎煌深沉 于 2019-8-23 11:38 编辑

WTPZ45 KNHC 230232
TCDEP5

Tropical Storm Ivo Discussion Number   7
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       EP102019
900 PM MDT Thu Aug 22 2019

Visible satellite pictures show that the center of Ivo has become
exposed to the northeast of the deep convection due to moderate to
strong northeasterly shear.  Although the latest Dvorak T-numbers
have decreased slightly, the initial intensity is being held at
55 kt which is in agreement with earlier ASCAT data and recent
UW/CIMSS SATCON estimates.  Overnight scatterometer data should
provide a better assessment of Ivo's intensity.  Guidance suggests
that the shear is likely to remain moderate to strong during the
next 12-18 hours while Ivo traverses warm waters.  The shear could
relax Friday night, but by that time the cyclone is forecast to
move over decreasing SSTs and into a less favorable thermodynamic
environment.  As a result, little overall change in strength is
anticipated during the next day or so.  After that time, Ivo should
weaken as it moves over SSTs below 26C and into a stable air mass.
The cyclone is forecast to become a remnant low within 72 hours,
and dissipate by day 5.

Ivo has turned sharply today, with the initial motion now
north-northwestward or 335/8 kt. The storm is forecast to move
northwestward to north-northwestward around the western side of a
mid-level ridge.  The latest track envelope has shifted eastward,
partially due to the sharper turn and the more eastward initial
position.  This has resulted in a slightly eastward shift in the
official forecast, but it remains close to the various consensus
aids.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT  23/0300Z 16.9N 114.1W   55 KT  65 MPH
12H  23/1200Z 18.0N 115.0W   55 KT  65 MPH
24H  24/0000Z 19.5N 115.9W   55 KT  65 MPH
36H  24/1200Z 21.2N 116.8W   50 KT  60 MPH
48H  25/0000Z 23.0N 117.6W   40 KT  45 MPH
72H  26/0000Z 26.6N 119.5W   30 KT  35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
96H  27/0000Z 28.5N 120.2W   20 KT  25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
120H  28/0000Z...DISSIPATED

$$
Forecaster Brown
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20190823.0251.gpm.89pct89h89v.10E.IVO.55kts.996mb.16.5N.114W.060pc.jpg
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 楼主| 发表于 2019-8-23 12:06 | 显示全部楼层
全球热带气旋监测报告
预报:柳龙生  签发:董林   2019 年  08 月  23 日  10 时
“伊沃”将向西北方向移动
东北太平洋热带风暴“伊沃”(IVO)的中心今天(23日)上午8点钟(北京时,下同)位于墨西哥南下加利福尼亚州圣卢卡斯角(THE SOUTHERN TIP OF BAJA CALIFORNIA)南偏西方向约890公里的东北太平洋洋面上,就是北纬16.5度、西经114.0度,中心附近最大风力有10级(28米/秒,相当于我国的强热带风暴级),中心最低气压为996百帕。

预计,“伊沃”将以每小时15公里左右的速度向西北方向移动,强度逐渐加强。
SEVP_NMC_TCMO_SFER_EME_AGLB_L89_P9_20190823020002400_XML_1.jpg
卫星红外监测图像
(北京时间2019年8月23日08时00分)
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发表于 2019-8-23 16:44 | 显示全部楼层
本帖最后由 炎煌深沉 于 2019-8-23 18:00 编辑

WTPZ45 KNHC 230842
TCDEP5

Tropical Storm Ivo Discussion Number   8
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       EP102019
300 AM MDT Fri Aug 23 2019

Unexpectedly, stronger than anticipated northeasterly shear
affected Ivo during the past 12 hours or so, and the low-level
center became detached from the main area of deep convection. The
center can be clearly seen on microwave and conventional imagery,
and it is located very near Clarion Island, Mexico. An automatic
Mexican Navy weather station at that location reported that the
surface pressure has been falling and has measured gusts to 39 kt.
This information is very valuable to diagnose the structure of the
cyclone.

Despite the deterioration of the cloud pattern, a recent ASCAT pass
measured a peak wind of 50 kt associated with Ivo, but this value
was confined to a small area in the southeast quadrant. On this
basis, the initial intensity has been adjusted downward to 50 kt,
which is also a value close to the Dvorak estimates, or perhaps a
tad higher.

The cyclone is expected to be over warm waters for about a day or
so, and given its vigorous circulation, Ivo could maintain the same
intensity for the next 12 hours. After that time, Ivo should begin
to weaken over cooler waters.  Unanimously, all the models weaken
the cyclone and so does the NHC forecast, and by 72 hours or sooner,
Ivo should have degenerated into a remnant low.

The center is moving toward the north-northwest or 330 degrees at 9
kt. The cyclone managed to find a weakness in the ridge, and since
the steering pattern is not expected to change, this general
motion is anticipated to continue until dissipation in 4 days. The
NHC forecast is on the left edge of the guidance envelope and is
basically on top of the multi-model consensus TVCE.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT  23/0900Z 17.9N 114.5W   50 KT  60 MPH
12H  23/1800Z 19.0N 115.2W   50 KT  60 MPH
24H  24/0600Z 20.5N 116.1W   45 KT  50 MPH
36H  24/1800Z 22.0N 116.8W   40 KT  45 MPH
48H  25/0600Z 24.0N 117.5W   30 KT  35 MPH
72H  26/0600Z 27.5N 119.0W   25 KT  30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
96H  27/0600Z...DISSIPATED

$$
Forecaster Avila
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 楼主| 发表于 2019-8-23 17:12 | 显示全部楼层
全球热带气旋监测报告
预报:柳龙生  签发:董林   2019 年  08 月  23 日  18 时
“伊沃”将向西北方向移动
东北太平洋热带风暴“伊沃”(IVO)的中心今天(23日)下午2点钟(北京时,下同)位于墨西哥南下加利福尼亚州圣卢卡斯角(THE SOUTHERN TIP OF BAJA CALIFORNIA)南偏西方向约815公里的东北太平洋洋面上,就是北纬17.2度、西经114.3度,中心附近最大风力有10级(28米/秒,相当于我国的强热带风暴级),中心最低气压为996百帕。

预计,“伊沃”将以每小时15公里左右的速度向西北方向移动,强度逐渐加强。
SEVP_NMC_TCMO_SFER_EME_AGLB_L89_P9_20190823100002400_XML_1.jpg
卫星红外监测图像
(北京时间2019年8月23日14时00分)
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发表于 2019-8-23 22:38 | 显示全部楼层
本帖最后由 1007圆规 于 2019-8-23 22:41 编辑

WTPZ45 KNHC 231434
TCDEP5

Tropical Storm Ivo Discussion Number   9
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       EP102019
800 AM PDT Fri Aug 23 2019

Ivo has been passing over the island of Clarion Mexico over the past
few hours, with an notable wind shift occuring there at around 1030
UTC as the center moved north of the island. The latest observation
from Clarion at 1245 UTC measured sustained winds of 40 kt with
gusts to 46 kt. An earlier scatterometer pass showed that 50 kt
winds are occurring in the southeastern quadrant of the cyclone.
As the satellite appearance of the cyclone has not degraded since
that time, the initial intensity of Ivo remains at 50 kt for this
advisory.

Ivo is moving NNW or 330/9 kt. This general motion is expected to
continue through the next 48 hours as the cyclone is steered around
a mid level ridge over northern Mexico. A slight decrease in forward
speed is expected beyond 48 hours as Ivo weakens and becomes a
shallow system. All forecast models agree with this scenario, and
the official forecast is near the corrected consensus HCCA.

Northeasterly shear continues to impact the storm which is resulting
the convection being confined to the southwestern semicircle. The
SHIPS guidance indicates this shear should abate over the next 12-24
hours. However, by that time Ivo will be moving over marginal water
temperatures and into a slightly drier environment which should
cause the system to slowly weaken. In about 24 hours the cyclone
will pass over the 26 C isotherm, and by 48 hours it will be over
waters of about 22 C and in a stable airmass. This should cause the
cyclone to lose its deep convection and become a remnant low by 72
hours. The official forecast is similar to the previous one, and
close to the solution of the various consensus aids.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT  23/1500Z 18.8N 115.0W   50 KT  60 MPH
12H  24/0000Z 20.0N 115.7W   45 KT  50 MPH
24H  24/1200Z 21.6N 116.4W   40 KT  45 MPH
36H  25/0000Z 23.1N 117.2W   35 KT  40 MPH
48H  25/1200Z 24.6N 117.9W   30 KT  35 MPH
72H  26/1200Z 27.6N 118.6W   25 KT  30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
96H  27/1200Z...DISSIPATED

$$
Forecaster Latto/Beven
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