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[2019] 墨西哥以南热带风暴“艾沃”(10E.Ivo)

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 楼主| 发表于 2019-8-24 01:49 | 显示全部楼层
WTPZ45 KNHC 231605
TCDEP5

Tropical Storm Ivo Special Discussion Number  10
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       EP102019
900 AM PDT Fri Aug 23 2019

An observation at 1430 UTC from Clarion Island, Mexico, indicated
sustained winds of 53 kt and a wind gust to 66 kt on that island.
Based on this data, a special advisory is being issued with the
initial intensity increased to 55 kt. There has been a slight upward
adjustment of the forecast intensity through 24 hours to account
for the initial wind speed. However, the remainder of the forecast
reasoning remains unchanged, and no changes were made to the track
for this advisory.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT  23/1600Z 18.9N 115.0W   55 KT  65 MPH
12H  24/0000Z 20.0N 115.7W   50 KT  60 MPH
24H  24/1200Z 21.6N 116.4W   45 KT  50 MPH
36H  25/0000Z 23.1N 117.2W   35 KT  40 MPH
48H  25/1200Z 24.6N 117.9W   30 KT  35 MPH
72H  26/1200Z 27.6N 118.6W   25 KT  30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
96H  27/1200Z...DISSIPATED

$$
Forecaster Latto/Blake
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发表于 2019-8-24 04:44 | 显示全部楼层
本帖最后由 炎煌深沉 于 2019-8-24 07:25 编辑

WTPZ45 KNHC 232039
TCDEP5

Tropical Storm Ivo Discussion Number  11
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       EP102019
200 PM PDT Fri Aug 23 2019

The satellite appearance of Ivo has changed little today, with
northeasterly shear confining the deep convection to the
southwestern semicircle of the cyclone's circulation. Although
recent ASCAT data suggests that the peak winds may have decreased,
the initial intensity is conservatively maintained at 55 kt, based
on the earlier wind report from Clarion Island.

Ivo's initial motion is 335/09 kt. This general motion is expected
to continue for at least the next 48 hours as the cyclone is steered
around the western periphery of a mid-level ridge over northern
Mexico. Once the cyclone weakens and becomes a shallow system in a
couple of days, the forward motion should decrease and a turn to the
northeast should occur, as the circulation becomes steered by the
low level flow. The official forecast track is very close to the
previous one and is near the various consensus model solutions.

Although guidance suggests the wind shear will decrease over Ivo
starting in about 12 hours, the cyclone is beginning to move over
progressively cooler waters. This should cause the cyclone to
gradually weaken over the next couple of days. By Sunday afternoon,
Ivo will be over SSTs of about 22 C and in a more stable airmass.
This should cause the cyclone to become devoid of deep convection
and degenerate into a remnant low around that time. The latest
forecast is an update of the previous one and in agreement with the
corrected consensus HCCA.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT  23/2100Z 19.7N 115.3W   55 KT  65 MPH
12H  24/0600Z 20.9N 115.9W   45 KT  50 MPH
24H  24/1800Z 22.4N 116.7W   40 KT  45 MPH
36H  25/0600Z 24.1N 117.4W   35 KT  40 MPH
48H  25/1800Z 25.8N 118.2W   30 KT  35 MPH
72H  26/1800Z 28.7N 118.6W   25 KT  30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
96H  27/1800Z...DISSIPATED

$$
Forecaster Latto/Brown
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 楼主| 发表于 2019-8-24 09:40 | 显示全部楼层
全球热带气旋监测报告
预报:周冠博  签发:王海平   2019 年  08 月  24 日  10 时
“伊沃”将向北偏西方向移动
东北太平洋热带风暴“伊沃”(IVO)的中心今天(24日)上午8点钟(北京时,下同)位于墨西哥南下加利福尼亚州圣卢卡斯角(THE SOUTHERN TIP OF BAJA CALIFORNIA)西偏南方向约635公里的东北太平洋洋面上,就是北纬20.1度、西经115.3度,中心附近最大风力有10级(25米/秒,相当于我国的强热带风暴级),中心最低气压为996百帕。

预计,“伊沃”将以每小时20公里左右的速度向北偏西方向移动,强度逐渐减弱。
SEVP_NMC_TCMO_SFER_EME_AGLB_L89_P9_20190824020002400_XML_1.jpg
卫星红外监测图像
(北京时间2019年8月24日08时40分)
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发表于 2019-8-24 10:38 | 显示全部楼层
本帖最后由 炎煌深沉 于 2019-8-24 11:40 编辑

WTPZ45 KNHC 240235
TCDEP5

Tropical Storm Ivo Discussion Number  12
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       EP102019
800 PM PDT Fri Aug 23 2019

Deep convection associated with Ivo has become more separated from
the low-level center this evening, and the cloud tops have also
warmed during the past few hours.  Subjective and objective Dvorak
intensity estimates have decreased and now support an initial wind
speed of 45 kt.  Although the vertical wind shear over the cyclone
is predicted to decrease during the next 24 hours, Ivo will be
moving over progressively cooler waters and into less favorable
thermodynamic conditions.  This should cause the storm to gradually
weaken, and once Ivo moves over SSTs of 23-24 degrees Celsius on
Sunday the cyclone should degenerate into a remnant low.

Ivo is moving north-northwestward or 335/9 kt.  There is little
change to the previous track forecast reasoning.  Ivo should
continue to move north-northwestward around the western periphery
of a mid-level ridge over northern Mexico.  Once the cyclone
weakens and becomes a vertically shallow system, it is likely to
decelerate as it comes under the influence of the low-level steering
flow.  The new NHC track forecast is similar to the previous
advisory and lies closest to the HFIP corrected consensus model.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT  24/0300Z 20.5N 115.5W   45 KT  50 MPH
12H  24/1200Z 21.6N 116.0W   40 KT  45 MPH
24H  25/0000Z 23.3N 116.8W   35 KT  40 MPH
36H  25/1200Z 25.1N 117.6W   30 KT  35 MPH
48H  26/0000Z 26.6N 118.3W   25 KT  30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
72H  27/0000Z 28.6N 118.3W   20 KT  25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
96H  28/0000Z...DISSIPATED

$$
Forecaster Brown
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发表于 2019-8-24 16:36 | 显示全部楼层
本帖最后由 炎煌深沉 于 2019-8-24 19:14 编辑

WTPZ45 KNHC 240832
TCDEP5

Tropical Storm Ivo Discussion Number  13
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       EP102019
200 AM PDT Sat Aug 24 2019

The cloud pattern associated with Ivo has deteriorated
significantly during the past several hours, and deep convection
is now limited to a small cell near the center. The middle-level
circulation and the cloud debris have moved away from the center
due to northeasterly shear. Dvorak numbers continue to decrease, and
an average of these estimates yields an initial intensity of 40
kt.  This is consistent with a recent ASCAT pass which measured one
vector of 40 kt in the southern semicircle. The winds have subsided
considerably in the remainder of the circulation.  Ivo is already
moving over increasingly cooler waters. On this basis, the NHC
forecast calls for weakening, and Ivo is expected to become a
remnant low in 36 hours or even earlier and then dissipate in 2 or 3
days.

The best estimate of the initial motion is north-northwestward or
335 degrees at 9 kt, and Ivo should continue on that direction
steered by the flow around the subtropical high. A decrease in
forward speed is anticipated as the cyclone reaches weaker
steering currents. The NHC forecast is not different from the
previous one and is almost on top of the multi-model consensus TVCE.

Due to the persistent and strong southwesterly flow associated
with Ivo during the last few days, high swells are propagating
northeastward toward portions of the southern Baja California
peninsula as indicated by recent altimeter data.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT  24/0900Z 21.4N 115.8W   40 KT  45 MPH
12H  24/1800Z 22.7N 116.3W   40 KT  45 MPH
24H  25/0600Z 24.3N 117.0W   30 KT  35 MPH
36H  25/1800Z 26.0N 117.8W   25 KT  30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
48H  26/0600Z 27.2N 118.0W   25 KT  30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
72H  27/0600Z...DISSIPATED

$$
Forecaster Avila
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 楼主| 发表于 2019-8-24 16:42 | 显示全部楼层
全球热带气旋监测报告
预报:周冠博  签发:王海平   2019 年  08 月  24 日  18 时
“伊沃”将向北偏西方向移动
东北太平洋热带风暴“伊沃”(IVO)的中心今天(24日)下午2点钟(北京时,下同)位于墨西哥南下加利福尼亚州圣卢卡斯角(THE SOUTHERN TIP OF BAJA CALIFORNIA)西偏南方向约625公里的东北太平洋洋面上,就是北纬21.0度、西经115.6度,中心附近最大风力有9级(23米/秒,相当于我国的热带风暴级),中心最低气压为998百帕。

预计,“伊沃”将以每小时20公里左右的速度向北偏西方向移动,强度逐渐减弱。
SEVP_NMC_TCMO_SFER_EME_AGLB_L89_P9_20190824100002400_XML_1.jpg
卫星红外监测图像
(北京时间2019年8月24日12时20分)
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 楼主| 发表于 2019-8-24 23:05 | 显示全部楼层
本帖最后由 2018.26W 于 2019-8-25 03:21 编辑

WTPZ45 KNHC 241453
TCDEP5

Tropical Storm Ivo Discussion Number  14
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       EP102019
800 AM PDT Sat Aug 24 2019

Deep convection associated with Ivo has made a comeback during the
past several hours, with a large convective mass now near the center
over the western semicircle.  Satellite intensity estimates have
decreased a little more since the last advisory, and the initial
intensity is reduced to a possibly conservative 35 kt.  The cyclone
is moving steadily over cooler sea surface temperatures and
continued weakening is expected.  The new intensity forecast
therefore follows the guidance and the previous forecast in calling
for Ivo to weaken to a depression by 24 h, to degenerate to a
remnant low by 36 h, and to dissipate completely by 72 h.

The initial motion is 330/8.  The subtropical ridge to the east
should steer Ivo generally north-northwestward for the next couple
of days, with some decrease in forward speed before the system
dissipates.  The new official forecast track is again similar to
the previous track.

Due to the persistent and strong southwesterly flow associated
with Ivo during the last few days, high swells continue to
propagate northeastward toward portions of the southern Baja
California peninsula.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT  24/1500Z 21.8N 116.4W   35 KT  40 MPH
12H  25/0000Z 23.0N 117.0W   35 KT  40 MPH
24H  25/1200Z 24.6N 117.7W   30 KT  35 MPH
36H  26/0000Z 26.0N 118.2W   25 KT  30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
48H  26/1200Z 26.8N 118.2W   25 KT  30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
72H  27/1200Z...DISSIPATED

$$
Forecaster Beven
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积分
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发表于 2019-8-25 04:50 | 显示全部楼层
本帖最后由 炎煌深沉 于 2019-8-25 05:50 编辑

WTPZ45 KNHC 242046
TCDEP5

Tropical Storm Ivo Discussion Number  15
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       EP102019
200 PM PDT Sat Aug 24 2019

Although the storm continues to move over decreasing sea surface
temperatures, Ivo continues to produce deep convection in a band
over the southern semicircle.  A combination of satellite intensity
estimates and recent ASCAT-C data suggest that the maximum winds
remain near 35 kt, and a NOAA Hurricane Hunter aircraft flying a
research mission just reported a central pressure of 1000 mb.
The cyclone should continue to move over cooler sea surface
temperatures, and thus weakening is expected.  The new intensity
forecast again follows the guidance and the previous forecast in
calling for Ivo to weaken to a depression by 24 h, to degenerate to
a remnant low by 36 h, and to dissipate completely by 72 h.

The initial motion is 335/7.  The subtropical ridge to the east
should steer Ivo generally north-northwestward for the next day or
so.  After that, the cyclone is likely to slow its forward motion
and turn northward as the low-level flow becomes the dominate
steering mechanism.  The new official forecast track is again
similar to the previous track through 24 h, and after that it is
shifted slightly to the east of the previous track.

The persistent and strong southwesterly flow associated with Ivo
during the last few days has generated high swells that are now
reaching portions of the southern Baja California peninsula.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT  24/2100Z 22.3N 116.5W   35 KT  40 MPH
12H  25/0600Z 23.7N 117.2W   35 KT  40 MPH
24H  25/1800Z 25.2N 117.9W   30 KT  35 MPH
36H  26/0600Z 26.3N 118.2W   25 KT  30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
48H  26/1800Z 26.8N 118.1W   25 KT  30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
72H  27/1800Z...DISSIPATED

$$
Forecaster Beven
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Rank: 7Rank: 7Rank: 7

积分
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发表于 2019-8-25 10:50 | 显示全部楼层
本帖最后由 炎煌深沉 于 2019-8-25 11:36 编辑

WTPZ45 KNHC 250239
TCDEP5

Tropical Storm Ivo Discussion Number  16
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       EP102019
800 PM PDT Sat Aug 24 2019

Deep convection associated with Ivo has quickly waned this evening.
A NOAA reconnaissance aircraft that flew into the storm this
afternoon found SFMR winds that suggested that the cyclone may have
been slightly stronger than previously estimated.  However, with the
degradation in organization since that time, the initial wind
speed is set to 35 kt for this advisory. Ivo has moved north of
the 26C isotherm and is heading toward even colder waters and a
more stable environment.  Thus weakening should occur overnight,
and Ivo is forecast to become a tropical depression within 12
hours and to degenerate into a remnant low by Sunday night.

The initial motion is 335/8 kt. Ivo continues moving north-
northwestward around the western side of a mid-level ridge centered
over northern Mexico.  The cyclone should decelerate and turn
northward on Sunday as it weakens and comes under the influence of
the low-level steering flow.

The persistent and strong southwesterly flow associated with Ivo
during the last few days has generated swells that are now
reaching portions of the coasts of the Baja California peninsula
and southern California.  These swells are likely to cause rip
currents.  See products from your local weather office for
additional information.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT  25/0300Z 23.4N 116.6W   35 KT  40 MPH
12H  25/1200Z 24.7N 117.1W   30 KT  35 MPH
24H  26/0000Z 25.9N 117.6W   25 KT  30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
36H  26/1200Z 26.7N 117.6W   25 KT  30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
48H  27/0000Z 27.0N 117.3W   20 KT  25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
72H  28/0000Z...DISSIPATED

$$
Forecaster Brown
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 楼主| 发表于 2019-8-25 12:40 | 显示全部楼层
全球热带气旋监测报告
预报:聂高臻  签发:王海平   2019 年  08 月  25 日  10 时
“伊沃”将向北偏西方向移动
东北太平洋热带风暴“伊沃”(IVO)的中心今天(25日)上午8点钟(北京时,下同)位于墨西哥南下加利福尼亚州圣卢卡斯角(THE SOUTHERN TIP OF BAJA CALIFORNIA)偏东方向约660公里的东北太平洋洋面上,就是北纬23.0度、西经116.4度,中心附近最大风力有8级(18米/秒,相当于我国的热带风暴级),中心最低气压为1000百帕。

预计,“伊沃”将以每小时15公里左右的速度向北偏西方向移动,强度继续减弱。
SEVP_NMC_TCMO_SFER_EME_AGLB_L89_P9_20190825020002400_XML_1.gif
卫星红外监测图像
(北京时间2019年8月25日9时26分)

“多里安”北大西洋洋面上生成

北大西洋热带风暴“多里安”(DORIAN)已于今天早晨在北大西洋洋面上生成,今天上午8点钟其中心位于巴巴多斯(BARBADOS)偏东方向约1100公里的北大西洋洋面上,就是北纬10.8度、西经49.7度,中心附近最大风力有8级(18米/秒,相当于我国的热带风暴级),中心最低气压为1008百帕。

预计,“多里安”将以每小时20公里左右的速度向偏西方向移动,强度逐渐增强。

卫星红外监测图像
(北京时间2019年8月25日9时30分)
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