台风论坛

 找回密码
 立即注册
搜索
热搜: 台风
楼主: 2018.26W

[2019] 墨西哥以南热带风暴“艾沃”(10E.Ivo)

[复制链接]

50

主题

4610

帖子

1万

积分

论坛版主-副热带高压

ghj说不抢帖会后悔半个月,咕咕咕

Rank: 7Rank: 7Rank: 7

积分
14811
发表于 2019-8-25 17:00 | 显示全部楼层
本帖最后由 炎煌深沉 于 2019-8-25 18:28 编辑

WTPZ45 KNHC 250839
TCDEP5

Tropical Depression Ivo Discussion Number  17
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       EP102019
200 AM PDT Sun Aug 25 2019

Ivo has been basically devoid of deep convection since about 0300
UTC, and the cyclone is on its way to becoming a remnant low.  A
pair of recent ASCAT passes indicate that the maximum winds have
decreased, and the initial intensity is lowered to a possibly
generous 30 kt, which makes Ivo a tropical depression. Ivo is
currently over 24 degree C SSTs and in a dry and stable environment.
Since these conditions are expected to become even more hostile
during the next couple of days, Ivo is forecast to degenerate to a
remnant low later today and dissipate within a couple of days.

The depression is moving north-northwestward at 9 kt.  A slight
turn to the north with a notable decrease in forward speed is
expected during the next day or two while the shallow cyclone is
steered by the low-level flow.  The NHC track forecast lies near
the various consensus models.

Even though Ivo is weakening, swells generated by the system are
affecting portions of the west coast of the Baja California
peninsula and southern California.  These swells are likely to
continue through the day and could cause rip currents.  See products
from your local weather office for additional information.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT  25/0900Z 24.5N 117.0W   30 KT  35 MPH
12H  25/1800Z 25.8N 117.6W   25 KT  30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
24H  26/0600Z 26.8N 118.0W   25 KT  30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
36H  26/1800Z 27.5N 117.9W   20 KT  25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
48H  27/0600Z...DISSIPATED

$$
Forecaster Cangialosi
083942_5day_cone_with_line_and_wind.png
ep1019.gif
10E_250600sair.jpg
回复

使用道具 举报

27

主题

1397

帖子

3078

积分

台风

有贴自远方来,不亦抢乎?

积分
3078
 楼主| 发表于 2019-8-25 17:21 | 显示全部楼层
全球热带气旋监测报告
预报:聂高臻  签发:王海平   2019 年  08 月  25 日  18 时
“伊沃”减弱为热带低压
东北太平洋热带风暴“伊沃”(IVO)已于今天(25日)下午减弱为热带低压,下午5点钟(北京时,下同)其中心位于位于墨西哥南下加利福尼亚州圣卢卡斯角(THE SOUTHERN TIP OF BAJA CALIFORNIA)偏西方向约740公里的东北太平洋洋面上,就是北纬24.5度、西经117.0度,中心附近最大风力有7级(15米/秒,相当于我国的热带低压级),中心最低气压为1004百帕。

预计,“伊沃”将以每小时15-20公里的速度向北偏西方向移动,强度继续减弱。

(这是关于“伊沃”的最后一期监测公报)
SEVP_NMC_TCMO_SFER_EME_AGLB_L89_P9_20190825100002400_XML_1.gif
卫星红外监测图像
(北京时间2019年8月25日16时26分)


“多里安”向偏西方向移动

北大西洋热带风暴“多里安”(DORIAN)的中心今天下午5点钟位于巴巴多斯(BARBADOS)东偏南方向约890公里的北大西洋洋面上,就是北纬11.0度、西经51.6度,中心附近最大风力有8级(18米/秒,相当于我国的热带风暴级),中心最低气压为1008百帕。

预计,“多里安”将以每小时20公里左右的速度向偏西方向移动,强度逐渐增强。

卫星红外监测图像
(北京时间2019年8月25日16时30分)
回复

使用道具 举报

7

主题

660

帖子

1737

积分

强热带风暴

积分
1737
发表于 2019-8-25 23:03 | 显示全部楼层
本帖最后由 1007圆规 于 2019-8-25 23:07 编辑

WTPZ45 KNHC 251433
TCDEP5

Tropical Depression Ivo Discussion Number  18
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       EP102019
800 AM PDT Sun Aug 25 2019

Ivo is moving north-northwestward or 340/10 kt, and that motion is
forecast to continue today. A turn to the north with a gradual
decrease in forward speed is still expected to occur on Monday, and
that motion should continue into Tuesday. The new NHC track forecast
is similar to the previous advisory track and lies close a blend of
the consensus models HCCA, TVCN, and TVCX.

The initial intensity of 25 kt is based on earlier ASCAT surface
wind data. Although a small area of deep convection has redeveloped
about 100 n mi north of the low-level center, that thunderstorm
activity is too far away to provide any positive feedback onto the
circulation. Thus, Ivo basically remains devoid of any significant
organized convection, and this downward trend is expected to
continue for the next 48 hours while the cyclone moves of waters
cooler than 22C. As a result of the expected spin down of the
shallow vortex, Ivo is forecast to become a post-tropical remnant
low later today and dissipate by Tuesday.

Although Ivo is weakening, significant swells generated by the
cyclone are affecting portions of the west coast of the Baja
California peninsula and southern California.  These swells are
likely to continue through the day and could cause rip currents,
and gradually subside on Monday. See products from your local
weather office for additional information.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT  25/1500Z 25.5N 117.4W   25 KT  30 MPH
12H  26/0000Z 26.7N 118.0W   20 KT  25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
24H  26/1200Z 27.5N 118.1W   20 KT  25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
36H  27/0000Z 28.3N 118.1W   15 KT  15 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
48H  27/1200Z...DISSIPATED

$$
Forecaster Stewart
143517_5day_cone_with_line_and_wind.png
回复

使用道具 举报

27

主题

1397

帖子

3078

积分

台风

有贴自远方来,不亦抢乎?

积分
3078
 楼主| 发表于 2019-8-26 05:13 | 显示全部楼层
WTPZ45 KNHC 252031
TCDEP5

Post-Tropical Cyclone Ivo Discussion Number  19
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       EP102019
200 PM PDT Sun Aug 25 2019

The initial motion is 340/07 kt. Ivo has slowed down due to the
system weakening and becoming vertically shallow. A slow
north-northwestward motion is expected today and this evening,
followed by a turn toward the north late tonight or early Monday
morning. The official forecast track is similar to the previous
advisory track, and lies close to the middle of the tightly
clustered consensus models.

The initial intensity of 25 kt is based mainly on continuity with
the previous forecast. The inner-core region of Ivo's circulation
has been devoid of any convection for more than 12 hours. What
little bit of thunderstorm activity that does exist well to the
north-northwest and west of the center is not showing any signs of
feeding back onto the cyclone and, therefore, Ivo has degenerated
into a remnant low pressure system. Additional spin down of the
shallow vortex is forecast due to the cyclone moving over sub-22 deg
C sea-surface temperatures and continuing to ingest more cool and
stable air, with dissipation likely by Tuesday.

Although Ivo is no longer a tropical cyclone, significant swells
generated by the low are still affecting portions of the west coast
of the Baja California peninsula and southern California.  These
swells will continue into tonight and could cause dangerous rip
currents before subsiding on Monday. See products from your local
weather office for additional information.

This is the last NHC advisory on Ivo.  For additional information
on the remnant low, please see High Seas Forecasts issued by the
National Weather Service, under AWIPS header NFDHSFEPI, WMO header
FZPN02 KWBC, and on the web at
ocean.weather.gov/shtml/NFDHSFEPI.php .

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT  25/2100Z 26.0N 117.9W   25 KT  30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
12H  26/0600Z 26.9N 118.2W   20 KT  25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
24H  26/1800Z 27.8N 118.2W   20 KT  25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
36H  27/0600Z 27.7N 117.8W   15 KT  15 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
48H  27/1800Z...DISSIPATED

$$
Forecaster Stewart
203250_5day_cone_with_line_and_wind.png
回复

使用道具 举报

50

主题

4610

帖子

1万

积分

论坛版主-副热带高压

ghj说不抢帖会后悔半个月,咕咕咕

Rank: 7Rank: 7Rank: 7

积分
14811
发表于 2019-8-26 09:44 | 显示全部楼层

存档

本帖最后由 炎煌深沉 于 2019-8-26 10:10 编辑

WTPN32 PHNC 252200
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL DEPRESSION 10E (IVO) WARNING NR 019//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL DEPRESSION 10E (IVO) WARNING NR 019
   01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN EASTPAC
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
    ---
   WARNING POSITION:
   251800Z --- NEAR 25.7N 117.8W
     MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 340 DEGREES AT 06 KTS
     POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 025 NM
     POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
   PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 025 KT, GUSTS 035 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   REPEAT POSIT: 25.7N 117.8W
    ---
   FORECASTS:
   12 HRS, VALID AT:
   260600Z --- 26.9N 118.2W
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 020 KT, GUSTS 030 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
   VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 360 DEG/ 04 KTS
    ---
   24 HRS, VALID AT:
   261800Z --- 27.8N 118.2W
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 020 KT, GUSTS 030 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
   VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 105 DEG/ 02 KTS
    ---
   36 HRS, VALID AT:
   270600Z --- 27.7N 117.8W
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 015 KT, GUSTS 025 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
    ---
REMARKS:
252200Z POSITION NEAR 26.1N 117.9W.
25AUG19. TROPICAL DEPRESSION 10E (IVO), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 422
NM SOUTH OF SAN DIEGO, HAS TRACKED NORTH-NORTHWESTWARD AT 06
KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT
251800Z IS 11 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 260400Z, 261000Z, 261600Z AND
262200Z.
//
NNNN
ep1019.gif
10E_251800sair.jpg
WTPN32 PHNC 252200
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL DEPRESSION 10E (IVO) WARNING NR 019//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL DEPRESSION 10E (IVO) WARNING NR 019
   01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN EASTPAC
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
    ---
   WARNING POSITION:
   251800Z --- NEAR 25.7N 117.8W
     MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 340 DEGREES AT 06 KTS
     POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 025 NM
     POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
   PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 025 KT, GUSTS 035 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   REPEAT POSIT: 25.7N 117.8W
    ---
   FORECASTS:
   12 HRS, VALID AT:
   260600Z --- 26.9N 118.2W
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 020 KT, GUSTS 030 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
   VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 360 DEG/ 04 KTS
    ---
   24 HRS, VALID AT:
   261800Z --- 27.8N 118.2W
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 020 KT, GUSTS 030 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
   VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 105 DEG/ 02 KTS
    ---
   36 HRS, VALID AT:
   270600Z --- 27.7N 117.8W
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 015 KT, GUSTS 025 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
    ---
REMARKS:
252200Z POSITION NEAR 26.1N 117.9W.
25AUG19. TROPICAL DEPRESSION 10E (IVO), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 422
NM SOUTH OF SAN DIEGO, HAS TRACKED NORTH-NORTHWESTWARD AT 06
KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. THIS IS THE FINAL WARNING ON THIS
SYSTEM BY THE JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI. THE SYSTEM WILL
BE CLOSELY MONITORED FOR SIGNS OF REGENERATION. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT
WAVE HEIGHT AT 251800Z IS 11 FEET.
//
NNNN
ep1019.gif
WTPN32 PHNC 252200 COR
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL DEPRESSION 10E (IVO) WARNING NR 019A CORRECTED//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL DEPRESSION 10E (IVO) WARNING NR 019A CORRECTED
   01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN EASTPAC
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
    ---
   WARNING POSITION:
   251800Z --- NEAR 25.7N 117.8W
     MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 335 DEGREES AT 10 KTS
     POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM
     POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
   PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 025 KT, GUSTS 035 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   POST-TROPICAL
   REPEAT POSIT: 25.7N 117.8W
    ---
   FORECASTS:
   12 HRS, VALID AT:
   260600Z --- 26.9N 118.2W
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 020 KT, GUSTS 030 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   POST-TROPICAL
   VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 360 DEG/ 04 KTS
    ---
   24 HRS, VALID AT:
   261800Z --- 27.8N 118.2W
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 020 KT, GUSTS 030 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   POST-TROPICAL
   VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 105 DEG/ 02 KTS
    ---
   36 HRS, VALID AT:
   270600Z --- 27.7N 117.8W
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 015 KT, GUSTS 025 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   POST-TROPICAL
    ---
REMARKS:
252200Z POSITION NEAR 26.1N 117.9W.
25AUG19. TROPICAL DEPRESSION 10E (IVO), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 422
NM SOUTH OF SAN DIEGO, HAS TRACKED NORTH-NORTHWESTWARD AT 10
KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. THIS IS THE FINAL WARNING ON THIS
SYSTEM BY THE JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI. THE SYSTEM WILL
BE CLOSELY MONITORED FOR SIGNS OF REGENERATION. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT
WAVE HEIGHT AT 251800Z IS 11 FEET.
2. JUSTIFICATION FOR CORRECTION: UPDATED TO REFLECT FINAL WARNING
FOR TC 10E.
//
NNNN
ep1019.gif
回复

使用道具 举报

您需要登录后才可以回帖 登录 | 立即注册

本版积分规则

Archiver|手机版|小黑屋|台风论坛 ( 沪ICP备11041484号-3 )

GMT+8, 2019-10-19 00:35

Powered by Discuz! X3.4 Licensed

© 2001-2017 Comsenz Inc.

快速回复 返回顶部 返回列表