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[2019] 关岛东北98W - 26.6N 152.1E - JMA:TD

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发表于 2019-8-17 07:52 | 显示全部楼层 |阅读模式
本帖最后由 颱風巨爵 于 2019-8-21 12:40 编辑

98W INVEST 190816 1800 21.0N 153.0E WPAC 15 1010

20190816.2330.himawari-8.vis.98W.INVEST.15kts.994mb.21N.153E.100pc.jpg

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参与人数 1金钱 +5 威望 +5 收起 理由
颱風巨爵 + 5 + 5 98W

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强热带风暴

Dorian 160Kt 实测911hPa

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发表于 2019-8-17 08:48 | 显示全部楼层

风场已经闭合,并出现35kt风旗。

B2150A2D-CEF9-4785-B36E-3CD06E5E3AF6.jpeg
JTWC15KT的定强显然是不合理的。

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参与人数 1威望 +1 收起 理由
炎煌深沉 + 1 OSCAT不建议用来看风速。。

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发表于 2019-8-17 09:48 | 显示全部楼层
这是飓风ERICK残余云系的重组?
之前ERICK的涡度在西太也存在了很多天的,只是风速很低
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发表于 2019-8-17 10:01 | 显示全部楼层
体积较小,有发展潜力
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论坛版主-副热带高压

ghj说不抢帖会后悔半个月,咕咕咕

Rank: 7Rank: 7Rank: 7

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发表于 2019-8-17 13:35 | 显示全部楼层

JTWC:LOW

本帖最后由 炎煌深沉 于 2019-8-17 14:04 编辑

ABPW10 PGTW 170600
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL WEATHER ADVISORY FOR THE WESTERN AND
/SOUTH PACIFIC OCEANS/170600Z-180600ZAUG2019//
RMKS/
1. WESTERN NORTH PACIFIC AREA (180 TO MALAY PENINSULA):
   A. TROPICAL CYCLONE SUMMARY: NONE.
   B. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE SUMMARY:
      (1) AN AREA OF CONVECTION (INVEST 98W) HAS PERSISTED NEAR
22.3N 155.2E, APPROXIMATELY 800 NM NORTHEAST OF GUAM. ANIMATED
MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY DEPICTS A FULLY EXPOSED AND WELL-
DEFINED LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION WITH POTENTIAL LOWER LEVEL BANDING
WITH THE MAJORITY OF CONVECTION SHEARED TO THE SOUTHWEST. A RECENT
162355Z ASCAT PASS REVEALED TIGHT AND WEAK LLC WITH A SMALL 20 KNOT
WIND FIELD TO THE SOUTH. UPPER LEVEL ANALYSIS INDICATES A MODERATE
ENVIRONMENT WITH 20-25 KNOTS OF VERTICAL WIND SHEAR, WEAK OUTFLOW,
AND FAVORABLE (28-29C) SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURE. GLOBAL MODELS ARE IN
GOOD AGREEMENT. MOST MODELS SHOW THE LLC REMAINING WEAK AND MOVING
SOUTHWEST WITHOUT INTENSIFICATION BEFORE BEING ABSORBED INTO ANOTHER
CIRCULATION TO THE SOUTH. GFS SHOWS INTENSIFICATION WHILE
MAINTAINING ITS OWN CIRCULATION.
   MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS
ARE ESTIMATED AT 20 TO 25 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS
ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1002 MB. THE POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A
SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS IS LOW.
      (2) NO OTHER SUSPECT AREAS.
2. SOUTH PACIFIC AREA (WEST COAST OF SOUTH AMERICA TO 135 EAST):
   A. TROPICAL CYCLONE SUMMARY: NONE.
   B. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE SUMMARY: NONE.//
NNNN

ABPW10 PGTW 170600
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL WEATHER ADVISORY FOR THE WESTERN AND
/SOUTH PACIFIC OCEANS/170600Z-180600ZAUG2019//
RMKS/
1. WESTERN NORTH PACIFIC AREA (180 TO MALAY PENINSULA):
   A. TROPICAL CYCLONE SUMMARY: NONE.
   B. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE SUMMARY:
      (1) AN AREA OF CONVECTION (INVEST 98W) HAS PERSISTED NEAR
22.3N 155.2E, APPROXIMATELY 800 NM NORTHEAST OF GUAM. ANIMATED
MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY DEPICTS A FULLY EXPOSED AND WELL-
DEFINED LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC) WITH LOWER LEVEL BANDING
DISPLACED TO THE WEST AND THE MAJORITY OF CONVECTION SHEARED TO THE
SOUTHWEST. A RECENT 162355Z ASCAT PASS REVEALED A COMPACT AND WEAK
LLC WITH A SMALL 15 TO 20 KNOT WIND FIELD TO THE SOUTHWEST. UPPER
LEVEL ANALYSIS INDICATES A MARGINAL ENVIRONMENT WITH 20-25 KNOTS OF
VERTICAL WIND SHEAR, WEAK OUTFLOW, AND FAVORABLE (28-29C) SEA
SURFACE TEMPERATURE. GLOBAL MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT. MOST
MODELS SHOW THE LLCC REMAINING WEAK AND MOVING SOUTHWEST WITHOUT
INTENSIFICATION BEFORE BEING ABSORBED INTO ANOTHER CIRCULATION TO
THE SOUTH. GFS SHOWS INTENSIFICATION WHILE MAINTAINING ITS OWN
CIRCULATION.
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 12 TO
18 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1002
MB. THE POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL
CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS IS LOW.
      (2) NO OTHER SUSPECT AREAS.
2. SOUTH PACIFIC AREA (WEST COAST OF SOUTH AMERICA TO 135 EAST):
   A. TROPICAL CYCLONE SUMMARY: NONE.
   B. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE SUMMARY: NONE.//
NNNN
abpwsair.jpg
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世纪风王

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金玉良言

QQ
发表于 2019-8-17 13:51 | 显示全部楼层
锋面产物
19081709.png
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论坛版主-副热带高压

ghj说不抢帖会后悔半个月,咕咕咕

Rank: 7Rank: 7Rank: 7

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发表于 2019-8-17 16:16 | 显示全部楼层

JMA:TD

本帖最后由 炎煌深沉 于 2019-8-17 16:51 编辑

TROPICAL DEPRESSION 1006 HPA AT 22N 155E WEST SLOWLY.

19081715.png
19081715.png
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有贴自远方来,不亦抢乎?

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发表于 2019-8-17 19:28 | 显示全部楼层
没想到这么快就TD了
-42d3e86877c7b904.png
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热带风暴

一条通往星星的崎岖道路

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发表于 2019-8-17 22:29 | 显示全部楼层
本帖最后由 麦尔修Mark 于 2019-8-17 22:51 编辑

TROPICAL DEPRESSION 1008 HPA AT 23N 154E WEST SLOWLY.
19081721.png
jikkyo21.png

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有贴自远方来,不亦抢乎?

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发表于 2019-8-18 04:33 | 显示全部楼层
本帖最后由 2018.26W 于 2019-8-18 04:38 编辑

TROPICAL DEPRESSION 1006 HPA AT 23N 153E WEST SLOWLY.
19081803.png
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