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[2019] 关岛东北98W - 26.6N 152.1E - JMA:TD

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发表于 2019-8-19 14:14 | 显示全部楼层

JTWC:REMAINS LOW

本帖最后由 炎煌深沉 于 2019-8-19 14:20 编辑

(1) THE AREA OF CONVECTION (INVEST 98W) PREVIOUSLY LOCATED
NEAR 23.0N 151.5E, IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 24.6N 150.0E, APPROXIMATELY
474 NM EAST OF IWO TO. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY
DEPICTS A FULLY EXPOSED, SYMMETRIC LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER
(LLCC) WITH MINIMAL CONVECTION BEING SHEARED SOUTHWESTWARD. A
190438Z SSMI F-15 85GHZ CONFIRMS A COMPLETE LACK OF OVERHEAD DEEP
CONVECTION. AN 182314Z METOP-C ASCAT PASS SHOWS 15-20 KNOT WINDS ON
THE EASTERN SIDE OF THE LLCC. 98W IS CURRENLTY IN A VERY UNFAVORABLE
ENVIRONMENT WITH NONEXISTENT UPPER LEVEL OUTFLOW, VERY HIGH (35 TO
40 KNOT) VERTICAL WIND SHEAR (VWS), AND MARGINAL (26 TO 27 CELSIUS)
SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES. GLOBAL MODELS ARE IN VERY GOOD AGREEMENT
THAT 98W WILL CONTINUE TO WEAKED BEFORE BEING ABSORBED INTO A MID-
LATITUDE CYCLONE TO THE NORTH.
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE
ESTIMATED AT 15 TO 20 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED
TO BE NEAR 1006 MB. THE POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A
SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS REMAINS LOW.
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发表于 2019-8-20 10:12 | 显示全部楼层

JTWC取消评级

本帖最后由 炎煌深沉 于 2019-8-20 10:40 编辑

ABPW10 PGTW 200130
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL WEATHER ADVISORY FOR THE WESTERN AND
/SOUTH PACIFIC OCEANS REISSUED/200130Z-200600ZAUG2019//
RMKS/
1. WESTERN NORTH PACIFIC AREA (180 TO MALAY PENINSULA):
   A. TROPICAL CYCLONE SUMMARY: NONE.
   B. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE SUMMARY:
      (1) THE AREA OF CONVECTION PREVIOUSLY LOCATED NEAR 24.6N
150.0E, HAS DISSIPATED AND IS NO LONGER SUSPECT FOR THE DEVELOPMENT
OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE IN THE NEXT 24 HOURS.
      (2) THE AREA OF CONVECTION PREVIOUSLY LOCATED NEAR 13.1N
134.9E, IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 13.5N 133.8E, APPROXIMATELY 345 NM
NORTHWEST OF YAP, FSM. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY
SHOWS A WEAK, RAGGED AND FULLY EXPOSED, ALBEIT, CONSOLIDATING LOW
LEVEL CIRCULATION (LLC) WITH SHALLOW AND DISORGANIZED CONVECTION
BEING SHEARED SOUTHWESTWARD. A 191240Z DIRECT ASCAT PASS VALIDATES
THE WEAK LLC WITH 10-15KT WIND BARBS. 97W IS CURRENTLY IN A
MARGINAL ENVIRONMENT WITH STRONG EQUATORWARD OUTFLOW THAT IS GREATLY
OFFSET BY HIGH (25KTS+) VWS. HOWEVER, SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES ARE
CONDUCIVE AT 27-28C. GLOBAL MODELS ARE IN DISSONANCE WITH NAVGEM AND
UKMET OFFERING SIGNIFICANT DEVELOPMENT IN 48HRS AND TRACKING TOWARD
TAIWAN, WHEREAS, ECMWF AND GFS ARE LESS AGGRESSIVE WITH MINIMAL AND
SHORT-LIVED WARNING CRITERIA INTENSITY BEYOND 72HRS ON A MORE
POLEWARD TRACK. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 10
TO 15 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1002
MB. IN VIEW OF THE CLEAR LLC AND POSSIBLE TD INTENSIFICATION IN
48HRS, THE POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL
CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS IS UPGRADED TO MEDIUM.
      (3) NO OTHER SUSPECT AREAS.
2. SOUTH PACIFIC AREA (WEST COAST OF SOUTH AMERICA TO 135 EAST):
   A. TROPICAL CYCLONE SUMMARY: NONE.
   B. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE SUMMARY: NONE.
3. JUSTIFICATION FOR REISSUE: UPGRADED AREA IN PARA 1.B.(2) TO
MEDIUM.//
NNNN
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