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[2019] 纽芬兰以南热带风暴“尚塔尔”(04L.Chantal)

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发表于 2019-8-18 02:45 | 显示全部楼层 |阅读模式
本帖最后由 颱風巨爵 于 2019-8-25 16:00 编辑

97L INVEST 190817 1800  32.8N   80.0W ATL   25  1013

20190817.1810.goes-16.ir.97L.INVEST.25kts.1013mb.32.8N.80W.100pc.jpg
two_atl_2d1.png two_atl_5d1.png

1. A surface trough is producing a band of cloudiness and showers
extending from the northeast Gulf of Mexico northeastward across the
coasts of Georgia, South Carolina, and North Carolina. The shower
activity is currently most concentrated near a small area of low
pressure located along the trough near the South Carolina coast.
Tropical development of this system, if any, is likely to be slow as
the disturbance moves northeastward along the eastern coast of the
United States with increasing forward speed during the few days.
Regardless of development, the disturbance is forecast to produce
heavy rainfall along with a threat of flash flooding in that region.
Please see products from your local National Weather Service office
or the Weather Prediction Center's Excessive Rainfall Outlook for
more information.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...10 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...low...10 percent.

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Wednesday Morning, 3 A.M.,
The Sound of Silence
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论坛版主-副热带高压

ghj说不抢帖会后悔半个月,咕咕咕

Rank: 7Rank: 7Rank: 7

积分
14359
发表于 2019-8-18 08:00 | 显示全部楼层

NHC:20%/20%

ZCZC MIATWOAT ALL
TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM

Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
800 PM EDT Sat Aug 17 2019

For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:

1. A small low pressure system located along the South Carolina coast
about midway between Myrtle Beach and Charleston is producing
disorganized showers and thunderstorms.  Tropical development of
this system is expected to be slow to occur tonight and Sunday due
to proximity to land as the disturbance moves northeastward along or
near the coast of the Carolinas.  By early Monday, however, the low
is expected to move over the warmer Atlantic waters, where some
further organization could occur.  The low is forecast to produce
heavy rainfall along with a threat of flash flooding in eastern
portions of South and North Carolina through Sunday.  Please see
products from your local National Weather Service office or the
Weather Prediction Center's Excessive Rainfall Outlook for more
information.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...20 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...low...20 percent.

Forecaster Stewart
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有贴自远方来,不亦抢乎?

积分
3002
发表于 2019-8-18 08:01 | 显示全部楼层
本帖最后由 2018.26W 于 2019-8-18 08:06 编辑

two_atl_2d0.png two_atl_2d1.png ir_ICAO-A_bw.jpg ir_ICAO-H_bw.jpg GEIR.JPG GEVS.JPG
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论坛版主-副热带高压

ghj说不抢帖会后悔半个月,咕咕咕

Rank: 7Rank: 7Rank: 7

积分
14359
发表于 2019-8-18 13:16 | 显示全部楼层

NHC:30%/30%

本帖最后由 炎煌深沉 于 2019-8-18 13:20 编辑

ZCZC MIATWOAT ALL
TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM

Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
200 AM EDT Sun Aug 18 2019

For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:

1. A small low pressure system located along the North Carolina coast
near Wilmington is producing a compact area of showers and
thunderstorms.  Any tropical development today is expected to be
limited due to the system's proximity to land. By Sunday night, the
low is expected to move northeastward over the warmer Atlantic
waters offshore of the Outer Banks, where some further organization
could occur before the system encounters cooler waters on Tuesday.
The low is forecast to produce heavy rainfall along with a threat of
flash flooding in coastal portions of South and North Carolina
through this evening.  Please see products from your local National
Weather Service office or the Weather Prediction Center's Excessive
Rainfall Outlook for more information.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...30 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...low...30 percent.

Forecaster Blake
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有贴自远方来,不亦抢乎?

积分
3002
发表于 2019-8-18 19:48 | 显示全部楼层

NHC:30%/30%

本帖最后由 2018.26W 于 2019-8-18 19:59 编辑

ZCZC MIATWOAT ALL
TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM

Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
800 AM EDT Sun Aug 18 2019

For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:

1. A small low pressure system located over eastern North Carolina is
producing disorganized showers and thunderstorms.  Any tropical
development today is expected to be limited due to the system's
proximity to land.  By tonight, the low is expected to move
northeastward over the Atlantic, where some further organization
could occur before the system encounters cooler waters in a day or
so.  The low is forecast to produce heavy rainfall along with a
threat of flash flooding in coastal portions of North Carolina
through this evening.  Please see products from your local National
Weather Service office or the Weather Prediction Center's Excessive
Rainfall Outlook for more information.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...30 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...low...30 percent.

Forecaster Pasch
two_atl_2d0.png two_atl_2d1.png two_atl_5d1.png
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强热带风暴

积分
1519
发表于 2019-8-19 01:57 | 显示全部楼层

NHC:20%/20%

ZCZC MIATWOAT ALL
TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM

Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
200 PM EDT Sun Aug 18 2019

For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:

1. A low pressure system near the North Carolina Outer Banks is moving
into the Atlantic.  Upper-level winds are forecast to be only
marginally conducive for development while the system moves
northeastward to east-northeastward, and away from the U.S. east
coast, during the next couple of days.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...20 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...low...20 percent.

Forecaster Pasch
two_atl_2d0.png two_atl_2d1.png two_atl_5d1.png
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论坛版主-副热带高压

ghj说不抢帖会后悔半个月,咕咕咕

Rank: 7Rank: 7Rank: 7

积分
14359
发表于 2019-8-19 07:40 | 显示全部楼层

NHC:10%/10%

本帖最后由 炎煌深沉 于 2019-8-19 08:06 编辑

ZCZC MIATWOAT ALL
TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM

Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
800 PM EDT Sun Aug 18 2019

For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:

1. A low pressure area located about 100 miles east of Norfolk,
Virginia, is producing limited shower and thunderstorm activity.
This low is moving northeastward, away from the United States, and
has only a slight chance to significantly organize through Monday
before upper-level winds become unfavorable for further
development.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...10 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...low...10 percent.

Forecaster Blake
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论坛版主-副热带高压

ghj说不抢帖会后悔半个月,咕咕咕

Rank: 7Rank: 7Rank: 7

积分
14359
发表于 2019-8-19 13:28 | 显示全部楼层

NHC:10%10%

本帖最后由 炎煌深沉 于 2019-8-19 13:34 编辑

Thunderstorm activity has increased this morning near and to the
northeast of a well-defined low pressure system located more than
200 miles east-northeast of Norfolk, Virginia.  There is still a
slight chance for significant organization to occur through today
while the system moves northeastward away from the United States.
Environmental conditions are expected become unfavorable for
tropical cyclone formation on Tuesday.

* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...10 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...low...10 percent.
two_atl_2d1.png
two_atl_5d1.png
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论坛版主-副热带高压

ghj说不抢帖会后悔半个月,咕咕咕

Rank: 7Rank: 7Rank: 7

积分
14359
发表于 2019-8-19 19:52 | 显示全部楼层

NHC:10%/10%

本帖最后由 炎煌深沉 于 2019-8-19 20:04 编辑

ZCZC MIATWOAT ALL
TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM

Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
800 AM EDT Mon Aug 19 2019

For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:

1. Thunderstorm activity has decreased in association with a low
pressure system located a couple of hundred miles south of
Nantucket, Massachusetts. Significant development of this system
is now unlikely as it moves east-northeastward away from the United
States.

* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...10 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...low...10 percent.

Forecaster Pasch
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台风

有贴自远方来,不亦抢乎?

积分
3002
发表于 2019-8-20 01:39 | 显示全部楼层

NHC:10%/10%

本帖最后由 2018.26W 于 2019-8-20 01:48 编辑

ZCZC MIATWOAT ALL
TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM

Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
200 PM EDT Mon Aug 19 2019

For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:

1. An area of low pressure located a couple of hundred miles
south-southeast of Nantucket, Massachusetts, is producing some
disorganized shower activity.  Significant development of this
system is unlikely as it moves eastward at 15 to 20 mph, away
from the United States.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...10 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...low...10 percent.

Forecaster Pasch
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