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[2019] TCFA - 东太平洋97E - 16.0N 123.0W - NHC:60%

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论坛版主-副热带高压

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发表于 2019-8-19 02:16 | 显示全部楼层 |阅读模式
本帖最后由 9914dan 于 2019-8-22 14:10 编辑

97E INVEST 190818 1800 11.9N 117.4W EPAC 20 1009

20190818.1800.goes-17.ir.97E.INVEST.20kts.1009mb.11.9N.117.4W.100pc.jpg
two_pac_2d2.png two_pac_5d2.png

2. A tropical wave located about 900 miles south-southwest of the
southern tip of the Baja California peninsula is producing
disorganized shower and thunderstorm activity.  Environmental
conditions continue to support slow development, and a tropical
depression could form later this week while the system moves
westward to west-northwestward at about 10 mph.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...30 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...medium...50 percent.

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参与人数 1金钱 +3 威望 +3 收起 理由
红豆棒冰冰 + 3 + 3 97E

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发表于 2019-8-19 07:40 | 显示全部楼层

NHC:40%/60%

本帖最后由 炎煌深沉 于 2019-8-19 08:08 编辑

2. A low pressure system located more 900 miles southwest of the
southern tip of the Baja California peninsula is producing a large
area of cloudiness and thunderstorms.  Environmental conditions are
expected to gradually improve, and a tropical depression could form
during the next few days while the system moves westward to
west-northwestward at about 10 mph.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...medium...40 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...medium...60 percent.
two_pac_2d2.png
two_pac_5d2.png
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热带风暴

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发表于 2019-8-19 13:38 | 显示全部楼层

NHC:40%/60%

本帖最后由 POCKETBOX 于 2019-8-19 13:41 编辑

2. A well-defined low pressure system located more 900 miles southwest
of the southern tip of the Baja California peninsula continues to
produce a large area of cloudiness and thunderstorms. Environmental
conditions are expected to gradually improve, and a tropical
depression could form during the next few days while the system
moves westward to west-northwestward at about 10 mph.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...medium...40 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...medium...60 percent.
two_pac_2d2.png
two_pac_5d2.png
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ghj说不抢帖会后悔半个月,咕咕咕

Rank: 7Rank: 7Rank: 7

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发表于 2019-8-19 19:50 | 显示全部楼层

NHC:50%/70%

本帖最后由 炎煌深沉 于 2019-8-19 20:08 编辑

2. A well-defined low pressure system located more 900 miles southwest
of the southern tip of the Baja California peninsula continues to
produce a large area of cloudiness and thunderstorms.  Environmental
conditions are expected to gradually become more conducive for
development, and a tropical depression is likely to form during the
next few days while the system moves westward to west-northwestward
at about 10 mph.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...medium...50 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...high...70 percent.
two_pac_2d2.png
two_pac_5d2.png
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发表于 2019-8-20 01:44 | 显示全部楼层

NHC:60%/80%

本帖最后由 2018.26W 于 2019-8-20 01:58 编辑

ZCZC MIATWOEP ALL
TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM

Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1100 AM PDT Mon Aug 19 2019

For the eastern North Pacific...east of 140 degrees west longitude:

2. A low pressure system located a little over 900 miles southwest of
the southern tip of the Baja California peninsula continues to
produce a large area of cloudiness and thunderstorms.  Environmental
conditions are expected to become more conducive for development by
mid-week, and a tropical depression is likely to form during the
next few days while the system moves westward to west-northwestward
at about 10 mph.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...medium...60 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...high...80 percent.

Forecaster Roberts
Screenshot_20190820_015504.jpg Screenshot_20190820_015424.jpg two_pac_5d2.png
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发表于 2019-8-20 07:28 | 显示全部楼层

JTWC:TCFA NHC:60%/80%

本帖最后由 炎煌深沉 于 2019-8-20 08:08 编辑

WTPN22 PHNC 192330
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION ALERT (INVEST 97E)//
RMKS/
1. FORMATION OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE IS POSSIBLE WITHIN
275 NM EITHER SIDE OF A LINE FROM 13.1N 119.4W TO 16.5N 136.7W
WITHIN THE NEXT 12 TO 24 HOURS. AVAILABLE DATA DOES NOT JUSTIFY
ISSUANCE OF NUMBERED TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNINGS AT THIS TIME.
WINDS IN THE AREA ARE ESTIMATED TO BE 20 TO 25 KNOTS. METSAT
IMAGERY AT 191918Z INDICATES THAT A CIRCULATION CENTER IS LOCATED
NEAR 14.0N 120.6W. THE SYSTEM IS MOVING WEST-NORTHWESTWARD AT 10
KNOTS.
2. REMARKS: THE AREA OF CONVECTION (INVEST 97E) IS LOCATED AT 14.0N
120.6W, APPROXIMATELY 624 NM WEST SOUTHWEST OF SOCORRO. MAXIMUM
SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 20 TO 25 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA
LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1004 MB. THE POTENTIAL FOR THE
DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS
IS HIGH.
3. THIS ALERT WILL BE REISSUED, UPGRADED TO WARNING OR CANCELLED BY
202330Z.
//
NNNN

WTPN22 PHNC 192330
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION ALERT (INVEST 97E)//
RMKS/
1. FORMATION OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE IS POSSIBLE WITHIN
275 NM EITHER SIDE OF A LINE FROM 13.1N 119.4W TO 16.5N 136.7W
WITHIN THE NEXT 12 TO 24 HOURS. AVAILABLE DATA DOES NOT JUSTIFY
ISSUANCE OF NUMBERED TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNINGS AT THIS TIME.
WINDS IN THE AREA ARE ESTIMATED TO BE 20 TO 25 KNOTS. METSAT
IMAGERY AT 191918Z INDICATES THAT A CIRCULATION CENTER IS LOCATED
NEAR 14.0N 120.6W. THE SYSTEM IS MOVING WEST-NORTHWESTWARD AT 10
KNOTS.
2. REMARKS: THE AREA OF CONVECTION (INVEST 97E) IS LOCATED AT 14.0N
120.6W, APPROXIMATELY 624 NM WEST SOUTHWEST OF SOCORRO. ANIMATED
MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY, SUPPORTED BY A 192313Z F-18 85GHZ
MICROWAVE IMAGE DEPICTS A DEVELOPING CIRCULATION WITH FLARING CONVECTION
TO THE NORTH OF THE LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER AND FORMATIVE BANDING
WRAPPING INTO THE CENTER. 97E IS CURRENTLY IN A FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT
FOR DEVELOPMENT WITH WARM (28-30 CELSIUS) SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES AND
RELATIVELY LOW VERTICAL WIND SHEAR (10 TO 15 KNOTS). MAXIMUM SUSTAINED
SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 20 TO 25 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL
PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1004 MB. THE POTENTIAL FOR THE
DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS
IS HIGH.
3. THIS ALERT WILL BE REISSUED, UPGRADED TO WARNING OR CANCELLED BY
202330Z.
//
NNNN
ep9719.gif
97E_192200sair.jpg

2. Another low pressure system located more than 900 miles southwest
of the southern tip of the Baja California peninsula is producing
a large area of cloudiness and disorganized thunderstorms.
Environmental conditions are expected to become more conducive
for development by mid-week, and a tropical depression is likely
to form during the next few days while the system moves westward
to west-northwestward at about 10 mph.

* Formation chance through 48 hours...medium...60 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...high...80 percent.
two_pac_2d2.png
two_pac_5d2.png
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发表于 2019-8-20 13:50 | 显示全部楼层

NHC:60%/80%

本帖最后由 POCKETBOX 于 2019-8-20 13:55 编辑

2. Another low pressure system located more than 900 miles southwest of
the southern tip of the Baja California peninsula is producing a
disorganized showers and a few thunderstorms. Environmental
conditions are expected to become more conducive for development by
mid-week, and a tropical depression is likely to form during the
next few days while the system moves westward to west-northwestward
at about 10 mph.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...medium...60 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...high...80 percent.
two_pac_2d2.png
two_pac_5d2.png
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有贴自远方来,不亦抢乎?

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发表于 2019-8-20 19:45 | 显示全部楼层
本帖最后由 2018.26W 于 2019-8-20 19:51 编辑

ir_ICAO-I_bw.jpg ir_ICAO-M_bw.jpg
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发表于 2019-8-20 19:45 | 显示全部楼层

NHC:60%/80%

本帖最后由 POCKETBOX 于 2019-8-20 20:06 编辑

2. Another low pressure system located more than 900 miles
west-southwest of the southern tip of the Baja California peninsula
is producing disorganized showers and a few thunderstorms.
Environmental conditions are expected to become more conducive for
development by mid-week, and a tropical depression is likely to form
during the next few days while the system moves westward to
west-northwestward at about 10 mph.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...medium...60 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...high...80 percent.
two_pac_2d2.png
two_pac_5d2.png
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强热带风暴

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发表于 2019-8-21 01:54 | 显示全部楼层

NHC:40%/60%

ZCZC MIATWOEP ALL
TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM

Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1100 AM PDT Tue Aug 20 2019

For the eastern North Pacific...east of 140 degrees west longitude:

2. Another low pressure system located more than 900 miles
west-southwest of the southern tip of the Baja California peninsula
is producing disorganized showers and a few thunderstorms.
Conditions have become less conducive for development, however a
tropical depression could still form within the next couple of days
while the system moves westward to west-northwestward at about 10
mph.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...medium...40 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...medium...60 percent.
two_pac_2d0.png two_pac_2d2.png two_pac_5d2.png
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