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[2019] 北卡罗来纳州东南热带风暴“埃林”(06L.Erin)

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发表于 2019-8-23 02:43 | 显示全部楼层 |阅读模式
本帖最后由 颱風巨爵 于 2019-8-30 02:10 编辑

98L INVEST 190822 1800 24.9N 78.3W ATL 15 9999
AL, 98, 2019082218,   , BEST,   0, 249N,  783W,  15, 9999, DB

20190822.1820.goes-16.ir.98L.INVEST.15kts.1014mb.24.9N.78.3W.100pc.jpg
two_atl_2d1.png two_atl_5d0.png

1. Shower activity associated with a trough of low pressure over the
northwestern Bahamas has become a little better organized since
yesterday.  Additional slow development is possible during the next
several days while the system moves northwestward toward the Florida
peninsula at 5 to 10 mph and then turns northeastward off the
southeastern coast of the United States.  Regardless of
development, locally heavy rains are possible over portions of the
southern Florida peninsula during the next day or two.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...10 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...low...30 percent.

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参与人数 1金钱 +3 威望 +3 收起 理由
红豆棒冰冰 + 3 + 3 98L

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论坛版主-副热带高压

ghj说不抢帖会后悔半个月,咕咕咕

Rank: 7Rank: 7Rank: 7

积分
14322
发表于 2019-8-23 07:36 | 显示全部楼层

NHC:30%/50%

本帖最后由 炎煌深沉 于 2019-8-23 07:54 编辑

ZCZC MIATWOAT ALL
TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM

Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
800 PM EDT Thu Aug 22 2019

For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:

The National Hurricane Center is issuing advisories on Tropical
Depression Chantal, located several hundred miles southeast of Cape
Race, Newfoundland.

1. Satellite and surface observations show that a broad area of
low pressure has formed just northwest of Andros Island in the
central Bahamas.  This system continues to produce a large area of
disorganized showers and thunderstorms that extend eastward over
the western Atlantic for a few hundred miles.  Environmental
conditions are forecast to be conducive for additional development
during the next several days, and a tropical depression could form
over the weekend or early next week while the system moves near the
coast of east-central Florida and then offshore of the southeast
United States coast.  Regardless of development, locally heavy rains
are possible over portions of the central and northwest Bahamas, and
the east-central and southeast Florida peninsula during the next few
days.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...30 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...medium...50 percent.

Forecaster Brown/Roberts
two_atl_2d1.png
two_atl_5d1.png

000
NOUS42 KNHC 221515
REPRPD
WEATHER RECONNAISSANCE FLIGHTS
CARCAH, NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER, MIAMI, FL.
1115 AM EDT THU 22 AUGUST 2019
SUBJECT: TROPICAL CYCLONE PLAN OF THE DAY (TCPOD)
         VALID 23/1100Z TO 24/1100Z AUGUST 2019
         TCPOD NUMBER.....19-086

I.  ATLANTIC REQUIREMENTS
    1. NEGATIVE RECONNAISSANCE REQUIREMENTS.
    2. OUTLOOK FOR SUCCEEDING DAY: POSSIBLE LOW-LEVEL
       INVEST OFF SOUTHEAST FLORIDA COAST NEAR
       28.0N 80.0W FOR 24/1800Z.

II. PACIFIC REQUIREMENTS
    1. NEGATIVE RECONNAISSANCE REQUIREMENTS.
    2. OUTLOOK FOR SUCCEEDING DAY.....NEGATIVE.
    3. REMARKS:
       A. THE NCAR/NSF G-V IS FLYING A RESEARCH MISSION
       OVER THE EASTERN PACIFIC WEST OF CENTRAL AMERICA
       AND EXTREME SOUTHWEST CARIBBEAN TODAY. ALTITUDES
       WILL BE 40,000-45,000 FT AND 32 DROPSONDES WILL
       BE RELEASED.
       B. THE NCAR/NSF G-V WILL BE FLYING A RESEARCH
       MISSION OVER THE EASTERN PACIFIC WEST OF CENTRAL
       AMERICA, DEPARTING MRLB AT 23/1230Z. ALTITUDES WILL
       BE 40,000 TO 45,000 FT AND 32 DROPSONDES WILL BE
       RELEASED.

$$
WJM
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发表于 2019-8-23 13:38 | 显示全部楼层

NHC:30%/60%

本帖最后由 POCKETBOX 于 2019-8-23 13:39 编辑

ZCZC MIATWOAT ALL
TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM

Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
200 AM EDT Fri Aug 23 2019

For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:

The National Hurricane Center is issuing advisories on Tropical
Depression Chantal, located about 850 miles southeast of Cape
Race, Newfoundland.

1. Recent satellite-derived wind data indicate that a weak area of low
pressure is located between the southeastern coast of Florida and
Andros Island in the northwestern Bahamas.  The system is producing
a large area of disorganized cloudiness and showers that extend
primarily northeast of the center over the adjacent Atlantic Ocean.
The low is forecast to move near or over Florida later today, which
should limit development during the next day or so.  Environmental
conditions appear conducive for development once the system moves
back over the Atlantic waters, and a tropical depression could form
over the weekend or early next week while the low moves near the
coast of east-central Florida and then offshore of the southeastern
United States coast.  Regardless of development, locally heavy rains
are possible over the northwestern Bahamas and southern and central
Florida during the next few days.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...30 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...medium...60 percent.

Forecaster Berg
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论坛版主-副热带高压

ghj说不抢帖会后悔半个月,咕咕咕

Rank: 7Rank: 7Rank: 7

积分
14322
发表于 2019-8-23 19:40 | 显示全部楼层

NHC:40%/70%

本帖最后由 炎煌深沉 于 2019-8-23 19:51 编辑

1. Surface and radar data indicate that a weak area of low pressure is
located just east of the upper Florida Keys and the southeastern
coast of the Florida peninsula.  This system is producing a large
area of disorganized cloudiness and showers that extends primarily
northeast of the center over the northwestern Bahamas and the
adjacent Atlantic Ocean.  The low is forecast to move near or over
the Florida peninsula through tonight, which should limit
development during that time.  Environmental conditions appear
conducive for development once the system moves northeastward back
over the Atlantic waters on Saturday.  A tropical depression is
likely to form this weekend or early next week while the low moves
from near the coast of east-central Florida to offshore of the
southeastern United States coast.  Regardless of development,
locally heavy rains are possible over the northwestern Bahamas and
southern and central Florida through the weekend.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...medium...40 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...high...70 percent.
two_atl_2d1.png
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有贴自远方来,不亦抢乎?

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2990
发表于 2019-8-24 01:51 | 显示全部楼层

NHC:70%/90%

本帖最后由 2018.26W 于 2019-8-24 02:08 编辑

ZCZC MIATWOAT ALL
TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM

Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
200 PM EDT Fri Aug 23 2019

For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:

The National Hurricane Center is issuing advisories on Tropical
Depression Chantal, located about 765 miles west of the Azores.

1. Surface and radar data, along with satellite imagery, indicate that
the low pressure area just east of the coast of southeastern Florida
is becoming better organized.  The low is forecast to move generally
northwestward near or over the eastern Florida peninsula through
tonight, and then move northward to northeastward over the Atlantic
near the east coast of the central Florida peninsula on Saturday.
After that, the system is expected to move northeastward offshore of
the southeastern United States coast.  If the current trend
continues, a tropical depression is likely to form by Saturday
night. Regardless of development, locally heavy rains are possible
over the northwestern Bahamas and the southern and central Florida
peninsula through the weekend.  Interests in the northwestern
Bahamas, the Florida peninsula, and the southeast coast of the
United States should monitor the progress of this system.  An Air
Force Reserve Hurricane Hunter aircraft is scheduled to investigate
the system on Saturday, if necessary.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...high...70 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...high...90 percent.

Forecaster Beven
two_atl_2d0.png two_atl_2d1.png two_atl_5d1.png
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论坛版主-副热带高压

ghj说不抢帖会后悔半个月,咕咕咕

Rank: 7Rank: 7Rank: 7

积分
14322
发表于 2019-8-24 04:18 | 显示全部楼层

TCFA

本帖最后由 炎煌深沉 于 2019-8-24 07:18 编辑

SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION ALERT//
WTNT21 KNGU 231900
RMKS/1. FORMATION OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE IS POSSIBLE
WITHIN 120 NM EITHER SIDE OF A LINE FROM 25.2N 79.9W TO 30.2N 81.7W
WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS. AVAILABLE DATA DOES NOT JUSTIFY
ISSUANCE OF NUMBERED TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNINGS AT THIS TIME.
WINDS IN THE AREA ARE ESTIMATED TO BE 20 TO 25 KNOTS. METSAT
IMAGERY AT 231800Z INDICATES THAT A CIRCULATION CENTER IS LOCATED
NEAR 25.2N 79.9W. THE SYSTEM IS MOVING NORTHWESTWARD AT 06 KNOTS.
2. MIAMI FL AND NASSAU BAHAMAS DOPPLER RADAR AND SURFACE
OBSERVATIONS INDICATE A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM LOCATED
OFF OF THE SOUTHEASTERN COAST OF FLORIDA BECOMING BETTER DEFINED.
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE DEVELOPING OVER THE EASTERN PORTION
OF THE LOW AND SURFACE PRESSURES ARE FALLING ACROSS THE REGION.
SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE 20 KTS IN THE NORTHWEST AND CENTRAL
BAHAMAS. UPPER-LEVEL WINDS ARE CONDUCIVE FOR FURTHER DEVELOPMENT
AND A TROPICAL DEPRESSION IS LIKELY TO FORM WITHIN 24 HOURS AS THE
LOW MOVES AWAY FROM THE EAST COAST OF CENTRAL FLORIDA ON SATURDAY.
3. THIS ALERT WILL BE REISSUED, UPGRADED TO WARNING OR CANCELLED
BY 241900Z.//
al9819.gif
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论坛版主-副热带高压

ghj说不抢帖会后悔半个月,咕咕咕

Rank: 7Rank: 7Rank: 7

积分
14322
发表于 2019-8-24 07:30 | 显示全部楼层
673
NOUS42 KNHC 231618
REPRPD
WEATHER RECONNAISSANCE FLIGHTS
CARCAH, NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER, MIAMI, FL.
1220 PM EDT FRI 23 AUGUST 2019
SUBJECT: TROPICAL CYCLONE PLAN OF THE DAY (TCPOD)
         VALID 24/1100Z TO 25/1100Z AUGUST 2019
         TCPOD NUMBER.....19-087

I.  ATLANTIC REQUIREMENTS
    1. SUSPECT AREA (OFF FLORIDA EAST COAST)
       FLIGHT ONE - TEAL 71          FLIGHT TWO - NOAA 43
       A. 24/1800Z                   A. 25/1100Z
       B. AFXXX 01BBA INVEST         B. NOAA3 0205A CYCLONE
       C. 24/1600Z                   C. 25/0930Z
       D. 28.0N 80.0W                D. 29.8N 78.7W
       E. 24/1730Z TO 24/2230Z       E. 25/1030Z TO 25/1430Z
       F. SFC TO 10,000 FT           F. 10,000 TO 20,000 FT

       FLIGHT THREE - TEAL 72
       A. 25/1200Z,1800Z
       B. AFXXX 0305A CYCLONE
       C. 25/0930Z
       D. 30.0N 78.5W
       E. 25/1130Z TO 25/1800Z
       F. SFC TO 10,000 FT

    2. OUTLOOK FOR SUCCEEDING DAY:
       A. BEGIN 12-HRLY FIXES AT 26/0000Z IF SYSTEM DEVELOPS.
       B. NOAA 43 P-3 TDR MISSION DEPARTING KLAL AT 26/0930Z.

II. PACIFIC REQUIREMENTS
    1. NEGATIVE RECONNAISSANCE REQUIREMENTS.
    2. OUTLOOK FOR SUCCEEDING DAY.....NEGATIVE.
    3. REMARK: NOAA 42 P-3 IS PLANNING AN 8-HR RESEARCH MISSION
       INTO TROPICAL STORM IVO DEPARTING KNZY AT 24/1500Z.

$$
SEF

NNNN
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论坛版主-副热带高压

ghj说不抢帖会后悔半个月,咕咕咕

Rank: 7Rank: 7Rank: 7

积分
14322
发表于 2019-8-24 07:35 | 显示全部楼层

NHC:70%/90%

本帖最后由 炎煌深沉 于 2019-8-24 07:54 编辑

1. A broad area of low pressure located near the coast of southeastern
Florida continues to produce a large area of showers and
thunderstorms that extend eastward over the northern Bahamas and the
adjacent western Atlantic waters.  The system has changed little in
organization since this afternoon, but environmental conditions are
expected to be conducive for gradual development, and a tropical
depression is likely to form over the weekend.  The low is forecast
to move generally northwestward near or over southeastern Florida
through tonight, and then move northward to northeastward over the
Atlantic near the east coast of central Florida on Saturday.  After
that, the system is expected to move northeastward offshore of the
southeastern United States coast. Regardless of development, locally
heavy rains are possible over the northwestern Bahamas and the
southern and central Florida peninsula through the weekend.
Interests in the northwestern Bahamas, the Florida peninsula, and
the southeast coast of the United States should monitor the progress
of this system.  An Air Force Reserve Hurricane Hunter aircraft is
scheduled to investigate the system on Saturday, if necessary.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...high...70 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...high...90 percent.
two_atl_2d1.png
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有贴自远方来,不亦抢乎?

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2990
发表于 2019-8-24 13:46 | 显示全部楼层

NHC:70%/90%

本帖最后由 2018.26W 于 2019-8-24 13:54 编辑

ZCZC MIATWOAT ALL
TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM

Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
200 AM EDT Sat Aug 24 2019

For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:

The National Hurricane Center has issued the last advisory on
Post-Tropical Cyclone Chantal, located several hundred miles west of
the Azores.

1. A broad area of low pressure located inland over South Florida
continues to produce a large area of disorganized showers and
thunderstorms that extend eastward over the northwestern Bahamas
and the adjacent Atlantic waters.  Significant development of the
low is unlikely today while it drifts northward over the southern
Florida peninsula.  Environmental conditions appear conducive to
support gradual development once the low moves off the east-central
coast of Florida over the western Atlantic by Sunday, and a tropical
or subtropical depression is likely to form early next week while
the system moves northeastward offshore of the southeastern United
States coast.

Regardless of development, locally heavy rains are possible over the
northwestern Bahamas and the southern and central Florida peninsula
through the weekend.  Interests in the northwestern Bahamas, the
Florida peninsula, and the southeastern coast of the United States
should monitor the progress of this system.  The Air Force Reserve
Hurricane Hunter aircraft scheduled to investigate the system later
today could be postponed if the center of the low remains inland
over Florida.  Another aircraft is scheduled to investigate the
system on Sunday.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...high...70 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...high...90 percent.

Forecaster Berg
two_atl_2d0.png Screenshot_20190824_135402.jpg two_atl_5d1.png
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论坛版主-副热带高压

ghj说不抢帖会后悔半个月,咕咕咕

Rank: 7Rank: 7Rank: 7

积分
14322
发表于 2019-8-24 13:47 | 显示全部楼层
A broad area of low pressure located inland over South Florida
continues to produce a large area of disorganized showers and
thunderstorms that extend eastward over the northwestern Bahamas
and the adjacent Atlantic waters.  Significant development of the
low is unlikely today while it drifts northward over the southern
Florida peninsula.  Environmental conditions appear conducive to
support gradual development once the low moves off the east-central
coast of Florida over the western Atlantic by Sunday, and a tropical
or subtropical depression is likely to form early next week while
the system moves northeastward offshore of the southeastern United
States coast.

Regardless of development, locally heavy rains are possible over the
northwestern Bahamas and the southern and central Florida peninsula
through the weekend.  Interests in the northwestern Bahamas, the
Florida peninsula, and the southeastern coast of the United States
should monitor the progress of this system.  The Air Force Reserve
Hurricane Hunter aircraft scheduled to investigate the system later
today could be postponed if the center of the low remains inland
over Florida.  Another aircraft is scheduled to investigate the
system on Sunday.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...high...70 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...high...90 percent.
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