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[2019] 巴哈马群岛五级飓风“多利安”(05L.Dorian) - 2019年迄今全球风王 - NHC:160KT 910mb

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发表于 2019-8-23 19:29 | 显示全部楼层 |阅读模式
本帖最后由 颱風巨爵 于 2019-9-8 12:00 编辑

99L INVEST 190823 0600 9.5N 40.5W ATL 20 1012

20190823.1100.goes-16.ir.99L.INVEST.15kts.1006mb.10N.41.5W.100pc.jpg
two_atl_2d2.png two_atl_5d2.png

Showers and thunderstorms have increased since yesterday in
association with a tropical wave located about 1400 miles
east-southeast of the Windward Islands.  Additional slow development
of this system is possible during the next few days as it moves
generally westward at about 15 mph.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...10 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...low...20 percent.

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参与人数 2金钱 +3 威望 +13 收起 理由
husay + 10 NHC:130KT
红豆棒冰冰 + 3 + 3 99L

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有贴自远方来,不亦抢乎?

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发表于 2019-8-24 01:52 | 显示全部楼层

NHC:40%/50%

本帖最后由 2018.26W 于 2019-8-24 02:08 编辑

ZCZC MIATWOAT ALL
TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM

Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
200 PM EDT Fri Aug 23 2019

For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:

The National Hurricane Center is issuing advisories on Tropical
Depression Chantal, located about 765 miles west of the Azores.

2. Recent satellite wind data indicate that a low pressure area has
formed in association with a tropical wave located about 1300
miles east-southeast of the Windward Islands.  Additional
development of this system is possible during the next few days, and
a tropical depression could form late this weekend or early next
week as it moves generally westward to west-northwestward near 15
mph.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...medium...40 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...medium...50 percent.

Forecaster Beven
two_atl_2d0.png two_atl_2d2.png two_atl_5d2.png
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发表于 2019-8-24 07:35 | 显示全部楼层

NHC:60%/70%

本帖最后由 炎煌深沉 于 2019-8-24 07:55 编辑

2. Satellite imagery suggests that the circulation associated with an
area of low pressure located about 1100 miles east-southeast of
the Windward Islands has become better defined, but the thunderstorm
activity is limited at this time.  Environmental conditions appear
conducive for additional development, and a tropical depression is
likely to form over the weekend or early next week while it moves
generally westward to west-northwestward near 15 mph.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...medium...60 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...high...70 percent.
two_atl_2d2.png
two_atl_5d2.png
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发表于 2019-8-24 10:33 | 显示全部楼层

TCFA

本帖最后由 炎煌深沉 于 2019-8-24 10:43 编辑

WTNT22 KNGU 240000
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION ALERT//
REF/A/FLEWEACEN NORFOLK VA/231900Z AUG 19//
AMPN/REF A IS TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION ALERT (WTNT21 KNGU 231900)//
RMKS/ 1. FORMATION OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE IS POSSIBLE
WITHIN 100 NM EITHER SIDE OF A LINE FROM 10.1N 45.0W
TO 11.2N 51.8W WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS. AVAILABLE DATA DOES NOT
JUSTIFY ISSUANCE OF NUMBERED TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNINGS AT THIS
TIME. EARLIER ASCAT-B SCATTEROMETER DATA INDICATED SUSTAINED
WINDS IN THE AREA OF 25 TO 30 KNOTS.
2. REMARKS:A LOW PRESSURE AREA ASSOCIATED WITH A TROPICAL WAVE
ABOUT HALFWAY BETWEEN THE WINDWARD ISLANDS AND THE CABO VERDE
ISLANDS CONTINUES TO PRODUCE SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS MAINLY WEST
OF THE CENTER OF CIRCULATION. ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS
ARE MARGINALLY CONDUCIVE FOR FURTHER DEVELOPMENT OF THIS SYSTEM
AND A TROPICAL DEPRESSION IS LIKELY TO FORM DURING THE NEXT 24
HOURS AS IT MOVES WEST-NORTHWESTWARD AT 12 TO 17 KT.
3. THIS ALERT WILL BE REISSUED, UPGRADED TO WARNING OR CANCELLED
BY 250000Z.
4. SEE REF A FOR DETAILS ON A TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION ALERT
LOCATED NEAR 25.2N 79.9W //
al9919.gif
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发表于 2019-8-24 13:48 | 显示全部楼层

NHC:60%/70%

本帖最后由 炎煌深沉 于 2019-8-24 13:56 编辑

2. Showers and thunderstorms associated with a small area of low
pressure located about 1050 miles east of the Windward Islands are
showing some signs of organization.  Environmental conditions appear
conducive for additional development, and a tropical depression is
likely to form over the weekend or early next week while the low
moves westward to west-northwestward at 10 to 15 mph.  Conditions
appear less favorable for development when the low reaches the
Lesser Antilles and eastern Caribbean Sea by the middle of next
week.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...medium...60 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...high...70 percent.
two_atl_2d2.png
two_atl_5d2.png
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发表于 2019-8-24 19:51 | 显示全部楼层

NHC:70%80%

本帖最后由 炎煌深沉 于 2019-8-24 19:58 编辑

2. Showers and thunderstorms associated with a small area of low
pressure located about 950 miles east of the Windward Islands are
showing some signs of organization.  Environmental conditions appear
conducive for additional development, and a tropical depression is
likely to form during the next day or two while the low moves
westward to west-northwestward at 10 to 15 mph.  Conditions appear
less favorable for development when the low reaches the Lesser
Antilles and eastern Caribbean Sea by the middle of next week.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...high...70 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...high...80 percent.
two_atl_2d2.png
two_atl_5d2.png
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ghj说不抢帖会后悔半个月,咕咕咕

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发表于 2019-8-24 22:43 | 显示全部楼层
本帖最后由 炎煌深沉 于 2019-8-25 05:11 编辑

C180E6A2-F408-4A79-942B-6843AF9D59ED.png
WTNT45 KNHC 241457
TCDAT5

Tropical Depression Five Discussion Number   1
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       AL052019
1100 AM AST Sat Aug 24 2019

The small low pressure system that the NHC has been tracking the
past several days across the tropical Atlantic Ocean has acquired
enough deep convection to be classified as a tropical depression,
the fifth tropical cyclone of the 2019 hurricane season. Two ASCAT
passes between 1200-1300Z this morning indicated that the system
had a closed circulation and surface winds of at least 30 kt, and
that is the intensity set for this advisory. Upper-level outflow
is fair to the northwest and restricted to the southeast due to
moderate easterly vertical wind shear.

The initial motion estimate is 280/10 kt. The NHC model guidance is
in very good agreement that the cyclone will move in a general
west-northwestward direction along the southern periphery of a
deep-layer ridge for the next 5 days, bring the system through the
central or northern Lesser Antilles on Tuesday, and into the
northeastern Caribbean Sea on Wednesday and Thursday. The official
forecast track is close to the consensus model TVCN, which is a
little north of the NOAA HCCA corrected-consensus model.

The small cyclone is currently experiencing easterly to
southeasterly shear of about 15 kt. The shear is forecast to
steadily decrease over the next 24 h and be around 5 kt in the
24-to-72-hour time period. Although the depression is expected to
remain embedded in a fairly dry mid-level environment, the small
overall circulation, small radius of maximum winds, low shear
regime, and warm SSTs of 28.0-28.5 deg C should allow for slow but
steady intensification through the 5-day period despite occasional
intrusions of dry air. The NHC intensity forecast is a blend of the
statistical-dynamical SHIPS and LGEM models, and the more robust
HWRF model.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT  24/1500Z 10.4N  47.9W   30 KT  35 MPH
12H  25/0000Z 10.7N  49.4W   30 KT  35 MPH
24H  25/1200Z 11.0N  51.4W   35 KT  40 MPH
36H  26/0000Z 11.4N  53.5W   40 KT  45 MPH
48H  26/1200Z 12.0N  55.5W   45 KT  50 MPH
72H  27/1200Z 13.6N  59.3W   55 KT  65 MPH
96H  28/1200Z 15.2N  63.1W   65 KT  75 MPH
120H  29/1200Z 17.1N  66.7W   75 KT  85 MPH

$$
Forecaster Stewart
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金玉良言

QQ
发表于 2019-8-25 03:53 | 显示全部楼层
本帖最后由 热带低压纳纳 于 2019-8-25 03:55 编辑

将会是一个非常迷你的飓风。
AL052019.png
AL052019_L.png


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发表于 2019-8-25 04:45 | 显示全部楼层

NHC issuing advisories for the Atlantic on TS Dorian

本帖最后由 炎煌深沉 于 2019-8-25 05:38 编辑

WTNT45 KNHC 242052
TCDAT5

Tropical Storm Dorian Discussion Number   2
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       AL052019
500 PM AST Sat Aug 24 2019

Visible and passive microwave satellite imagery indicate that the
inner-core of the small cyclone has noticeably improved since the
previous advisory.  A 1705Z AMSR-2 overpass showed the development
of tightly curved bands and a 10 mile wide eye-like feature.  In
addition, a 1935Z SSMI/S microwave pass revealed a tightly curved
band in 91 GHz data that wrapped almost 75 percent around the
center. Based on the much improved inner-core structure and 33-kt
wind vectors in an earlier ASCAT-B pass, the depression has been
upgraded to Tropical Storm Dorian on this advisory. Upper-level
outflow has been improving to the northwest, but remains slightly
restricted to the southeast due to some modest southeasterly
vertical wind shear.

The initial motion is 280/11 kt.  The latest NHC model guidance
remains in excellent agreement that Dorian will generally move
west-northwestward for the next 5 days around the southern periphery
of the sprawling Bermuda-Azores high pressure ridge that is located
to the north of the Lesser and Greater Antilles.  This motion is
expected to bring Dorian through the central or northern Lesser
Antilles on Tuesday, possibly as a hurricane, and then into the
northeastern Caribbean Sea on Wednesday and Thursday. The official
forecast track was shifted slightly north of the previous advisory
track, and is close to the consensus model TVCN, which remains north
of the NOAA HCCA corrected-consensus model.

The moderate to strong vertical wind shear that has been hindering
development of this system for the past several days is forecast to
diminish significantly during the next 12 h, and remain near 5 kt
through Tuesday. The low shear conditions, along with warm SSTs and
the significantly improved small, inner-core structure, should allow
for at least slow but steady strengthening despite the abundance of
dry mid-level air nearby. However, the low vertical wind shear and
tight inner-core wind field are also harbingers of possible rapid
intensification. For now, the new intensity forecast remains
conservative and similar to the previous advisory, and is above all
of the available intensity guidance, including the HWRF model.

Key Messages:
1. Dorian is forecast to strengthen and could be near hurricane
strength when it approaches the Lesser Antilles on Tuesday.

2. It is too soon to determine the specific timing or magnitude of
impacts in the Lesser Antilles, but tropical storm or hurricane
watches may be needed for a portion of the area on Sunday.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT  24/2100Z 10.7N  49.1W   35 KT  40 MPH
12H  25/0600Z 11.0N  50.7W   40 KT  45 MPH
24H  25/1800Z 11.4N  52.8W   45 KT  50 MPH
36H  26/0600Z 11.9N  54.9W   50 KT  60 MPH
48H  26/1800Z 12.7N  57.0W   55 KT  65 MPH
72H  27/1800Z 14.6N  61.1W   65 KT  75 MPH
96H  28/1800Z 16.5N  65.3W   75 KT  85 MPH
120H  29/1800Z 18.4N  69.0W   70 KT  80 MPH...INLAND

$$
Forecaster Stewart
205313_5day_cone_with_line_and_wind.png
al052019.20190824210304.gif
20190824.1320.mtb.ASCAT.wind.99L.INVEST.25kts-1011mb.103N.474W.25km.noqc.jpeg
20190824.1705.gw1.89pct89h89v.05L.FIVE.30kts.1010mb.10.3N.47.4W.50pc.jpg
20190824.1935.f16.91pct91h91v.05L.FIVE.30kts.1009mb.10.6N.48.6W.055pc.jpg
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发表于 2019-8-25 10:11 | 显示全部楼层
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