台风论坛

 找回密码
 立即注册
搜索
热搜: 台风
楼主: 三旋共舞

[2019] 1917号台风“塔巴”(18W.Tapah) - 冲绳渡嘉敷实测阵风47.7m/s,东海北上通过对马海峡

  [复制链接]
发表于 2019-9-11 14:08 | 显示全部楼层
conan1412 发表于 2019-9-11 10:31
請問有誰可以發一個EC系集的連結,謝謝!

https://www.easterlywave.com/typhoon/ensemble
wpac.png
回复

使用道具 举报

0

主题

302

帖子

595

积分

热带低压-GW

积分
595
发表于 2019-9-11 14:29 | 显示全部楼层
本帖最后由 274502599 于 2019-9-11 14:32 编辑

下午报ec又调回来了……+120h大致北上转向
回复

使用道具 举报

0

主题

73

帖子

212

积分

热带低压

积分
212
发表于 2019-9-11 14:42 | 显示全部楼层
红豆棒冰冰 发表于 2019-9-11 14:08
https://www.easterlywave.com/typhoon/ensemble

連結打不開網頁
回复

使用道具 举报

279

主题

9057

帖子

1万

积分

超强台风

积分
14417
发表于 2019-9-11 14:52 | 显示全部楼层
274502599 发表于 2019-9-11 14:29
下午报ec又调回来了……+120h大致北上转向

没,还是跟前报一样西南,登陆点北调了点,还不稳定,继续观察,后面还报出个大家伙
回复

使用道具 举报

发表于 2019-9-11 15:06 | 显示全部楼层
本帖最后由 红豆棒冰冰 于 2019-9-11 15:10 编辑

我在内地是可以打开的。。。
不知道是不是站长屏蔽了某些IP,待我询问一下

询问之后他说并没有屏蔽,那我也不清楚了
回复

使用道具 举报

36

主题

5624

帖子

9523

积分

强台风

积分
9523
发表于 2019-9-11 15:10 | 显示全部楼层
网址可以打开啊,我用的还是手机热点....
回复

使用道具 举报

发表于 2019-9-11 15:18 | 显示全部楼层

JTWC:REMAINS MEDIUM

ABPW10 PGTW 110600
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL WEATHER ADVISORY FOR THE WESTERN AND
/SOUTH PACIFIC OCEANS/110600Z-120600ZSEP2019//
RMKS/
1. WESTERN NORTH PACIFIC AREA (180 TO MALAY PENINSULA):
   A. TROPICAL CYCLONE SUMMARY: NONE.
   B. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE SUMMARY:
      (1) THE AREA OF CONVECTION (INVEST 95W) PREVIOUSLY LOCATED
NEAR 11.8N 135.9E, IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 13.3N 137.2E, APPROXIMATELY
440 NM WEST OF ANDERSEN AFB, GUAM. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE
IMAGERY DEPICTS AN ELONGATED LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION (LLC) SPANNING 10
DEGREES ON LONGITUDE, WITH FLARING CONVECTION OVER THE WESTERN AND
NORTHERN ARC OF THE SYSTEM. AN 110042Z ASCAT EDGE PASS SHOWS A WIDE
SWATH OF 25-30KT WINDS ROUNDING THE WESTERN EDGE AND FLOWING INTO
THE LLC ALONG THE SOUTHERN ARC. INVEST 95W IS BEING ASSESSED AS A
MONSOON DEPRESSION GIVEN THE BROAD, ILL-DEFINED NATURE OF THE LLC. A
BROAD UPPER LEVEL ANTICYCLONE LOCATED TO THE EAST IS PROVIDING GOOD
DIVERGENCE ALOFT AND LOW (10-15KT) VERTICAL WIND SHEAR. SEA SURFACE
TEMPERATURES REMAIN FAVORABLE (29-31C) IN THE PHILIPPINE SEA. GLOBAL
MODELS GENERALLY DEPICT 95W TAKING A MEANDERING NORTHWARD TRACK AND
REMAINING A BROAD MONSOON DEPRESSION WITH A LARGE SWATH OF 25-35KT
WINDS. THE GFS SOLUTION IS A KEY OUTLIER, DEPICTING A CIRCULATION
BREAKING OFF FROM THE MAIN LLC AROUND TAU 72, AND POSSIBLY
INTERACTING WITH 95W AND ANOTHER POTENTIAL DISTURBANCE TO THE
SOUTHEAST. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 30 TO 35
KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 999 MB.
THE POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE
WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS REMAINS MEDIUM.
      (2) NO OTHER SUSPECT AREAS.
2. SOUTH PACIFIC AREA (WEST COAST OF SOUTH AMERICA TO 135 EAST):
   A. TROPICAL CYCLONE SUMMARY: NONE.
   B. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE SUMMARY: NONE.//
NNNN
abpwsair.jpg
20190911.0042.mta.ASCAT.wind.95W.INVEST.25kts-1003mb.133N.1372E.25km.jpeg
20190911.0042.mta.ASCAT.wind.95W.INVEST.25kts-1003mb.133N.1372E.25km.noqc.jpeg
回复

使用道具 举报

发表于 2019-9-11 15:39 | 显示全部楼层
ECMWF 00Z,登陆浙闽交界附近
ecmwf_z500_mslp_wpac_fh0-240.gif
回复

使用道具 举报

0

主题

302

帖子

595

积分

热带低压-GW

积分
595
发表于 2019-9-11 15:41 | 显示全部楼层
[quote][url=forum.php?mod=redirect

并不是,新报ec调动颇大,前期北上后期副高加强西折登陆浙江附近,浙南闽北,后面那个应该是97w了
回复

使用道具 举报

发表于 2019-9-11 16:18 | 显示全部楼层
ECMWF 00Z系集
wpac.png
eastasia.png
回复

使用道具 举报

您需要登录后才可以回帖 登录 | 立即注册

本版积分规则

Archiver|手机版|小黑屋|台风论坛 ( 沪ICP备11041484号-3 )

GMT+8, 2019-11-14 03:42

Powered by Discuz! X3.4 Licensed

© 2001-2017 Comsenz Inc.

快速回复 返回顶部 返回列表