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[2019] 1917号台风“塔巴”(18W.Tapah) - 冲绳渡嘉敷实测阵风47.7m/s,东海北上通过对马海峡

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台风

有贴自远方来,不亦抢乎?

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发表于 2019-9-13 16:50 | 显示全部楼层
GALE WARNING.
WESTERLY TO SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS 30 TO 35 KNOTS
EXPECTED WINDS 30 TO 35 KNOTS FOR NEXT 6 HOURS
PREVAILING OVER WATERS BOUNDED BY 13N 128E 18N 137E 18N 140E 16N 140E
08N 131E 13N 128E.

GALE WARNING.
TROPICAL DEPRESSION 996 HPA
AT 19.5N 132.8E SEA EAST OF PHILIPPINES MOVING NORTH SLOWLY.
POSITION POOR.
MAX WINDS 30 KNOTS.
EXPECTED MAX WINDS 35 KNOTS WITHIN NEXT 24 HOURS.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 131800UTC AT 21.3N 133.1E WITH 45 MILES RADIUS
OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 140600UTC AT 22.3N 133.3E WITH 60 MILES RADIUS
OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.
19091315.png
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世纪风王

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发表于 2019-9-13 16:51 | 显示全部楼层
数值预报都被他折腾成精神病了
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热带低压-GW

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发表于 2019-9-13 16:52 | 显示全部楼层
下午报ec有靠拢gfs的意思,后期西南折进南海,强度较弱
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发表于 2019-9-13 17:11 | 显示全部楼层
ECMWF 00Z系集
wpac.png
eastasia.png
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强热带风暴

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发表于 2019-9-13 17:11 | 显示全部楼层
折腾了几天才TCFA。
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论坛版主-副热带高压

ghj说不抢帖会后悔半个月,咕咕咕

Rank: 7Rank: 7Rank: 7

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发表于 2019-9-13 17:12 | 显示全部楼层

JTWC:TCFA/UPGRADED TO HIGH

本帖最后由 红豆棒冰冰 于 2019-9-14 07:55 编辑

ABPW10 PGTW 131000
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL WEATHER ADVISORY FOR THE WESTERN AND
/SOUTH PACIFIC OCEANS REISSUED/131000Z-140600ZSEP2019//
REF/A/MSG/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN HI/130921ZSEP19//
AMPN/REF A IS A TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION ALERT.//
RMKS/
1. WESTERN NORTH PACIFIC AREA (180 TO MALAY PENINSULA):
   A. TROPICAL CYCLONE SUMMARY: NONE.
   B. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE SUMMARY:
      (1) THE AREA OF CONVECTION (INVEST 95W) PREVIOUSLY LOCATED
NEAR 19.0N 132.2E IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 19.3N 132.2E, APPROXIMATELY 490
NM SOUTH-SOUTHEAST OF KADENA AB, JAPAN. THIS SYSTEM IS ASSESSED AS A
CIRCULATION EMBEDDED WITHIN THE SOUTHWESTERN PORTION OF A MONSOON
GYRE. MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY (MSI) DEPICTS A CONSOLIDATING
LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION WITH PERSISTENT DEEP CONVECTIVE BANDING ALONG
THE WESTERN PERIPHERY. A 130114Z ASCAT-C IMAGE DEPICTS A WELL-DEFINED
LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER WITH DIRECTLY-ASSOCIATED 15-20 KT WINDS
TO THE SOUTH AND WEST. A 130625 SSMI 85GHZ IMAGE ALSO SHOWS A CLOSED,
AND NEARLY SYMMETRIC, LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION. STRONGER WINDS IN EXCESS
OF 35 KNOTS ARE EVIDENT FARTHER TO THE SOUTH OF CIRCULATION, ALONG
THE PERIPHERY OF THE MONSOON GYRE WITHIN WHICH INVEST 95W IS
EMBEDDED. THIS DISTURBANCE IS LOCATED IN AN AREA MARGINALLY FAVORABLE
FOR DEVELOPMENT WITH DIFFLUENT UPPER LEVEL WINDS AND WARM SEA SURFACE
TEMPERATURES (29-30 CELSIUS), OFFSET BY MODERATE TO HIGH VERTICAL
WIND SHEAR (15-20 KNOTS). GLOBAL MODELS PREDICT THAT 95W WILL
CONTINUE TO SLOWLY CONSOLIDATE AS IT TRACKS GENERALLY POLEWARD OVER
THE NEXT FEW DAYS ALONG WITH THE MONSOON GYRE WITHIN WHICH IT IS
EMBEDDED.
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 15 TO 20
KNOTS, WITH NOTED STRONGER WINDS WELL TO THE SOUTH OF THE CENTER.
MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 997 MB. THE
POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE
WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS IS UPGRADED TO HIGH. SEE REF B (WTPN21 PGTW
130930) FOR FURTHER DETAILS.

      (2) AN AREA OF CONVECTION (INVEST 98W) HAS PERSISTED NEAR 23.1N
139.9E, APPROXIMATELY 125 NM SOUTHWEST OF IWO TO. THIS SYSTEM IS
ASSESSED AS A DEVELOPING CIRCULATION EMBEDDED WITHIN THE NORTHEASTERN
PORTION OF A MONSOON GYRE. RECENT ANIMATED MSI SHOWS DEEP CONVECTION
DEVELOPING OVER THE EAST PORTION OF A TIGHTENING LOW-LEVEL TROUGH
EVIDENT IN A 130039Z ASCAT-C PASS. THIS DISTURBANCE IS SITUATED IN AN
AREA OF LOW TO MODERATE (10-15 KNOTS) VERTICAL WIND SHEAR AND
FAVORABLE EASTWARD AND EQUATORWARD OUTFLOW ALOFT. GLOBAL MODELS
INDICATE SEVERAL POSSIBLE OUTCOMES FOR THIS DISTURBANCE, WITH SOME
SOLUTIONS INDICATING THAT IT WILL SEPARATE FROM THE BROADER MONSOON
GYRE AND CONSOLIDATE AND OTHERS INDICATING THAT IT WILL REMAIN
EMBEDDED WITHIN THE MONSOON GYRE. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE
ESTIMATED AT 15 TO 20 KNOTS, WITH STRONGER 25-30 KNOT WINDS
ASSOCIATED WITH THE MONSOON GYRE CIRCULATION EVIDENT WELL TO THE EAST
OF THE DEVELOPING CENTER. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO
BE NEAR 1002 MB. THE POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT
TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS REMAINS LOW.
      (3) THE AREA OF CONVECTION (INVEST 97W) PREVIOUSLY LOCATED NEAR
PERSISTED NEAR 10.3N 159.2E IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 12.7N 156.2E,
APPROXIMATELY 680 NM EAST OF GUAM. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE
IMAGERY (MSI) AND A 130752 SSMIS 91GHZ IMAGE DEPICT A DEVELOPING,
COMPACT LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION WITH A BAND OF PATCHY DEEP CONVECTION
ALONG THE WESTERN PERIPHERY. THIS CIRCULATION IS SITUATED IN AN AREA
OF LOW TO MODERATE VERTICAL WIND SHEAR (10-15 KNOTS), WARM SEA
SURFACE TEMPERATURES (29-30 CELSIUS) AND FAVORABLE EQUATORWARD
OUTFLOW ALOFT. NUMERICAL MODELS INDICATE STEADY DEVELOPMENT AND
FURTHER CONSOLIDATION OF THIS SYSTEM AS IT TRACKS NORTHWESTWARD OVER
THE NEXT FEW DAYS. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT
15 TO 20 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR
1008 MB. THE POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL
CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 IS UPGRADED TO MEDIUM.
      (4) NO OTHER SUSPECT AREAS.
2. SOUTH PACIFIC AREA (WEST COAST OF SOUTH AMERICA TO 135 EAST):
   A. TROPICAL CYCLONE SUMMARY: NONE.
   B. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE SUMMARY: NONE.//
3. JUSTIFICATION FOR REISSUE: UPGRADED AREA IN PARA 1.B.(1) TO HIGH.
UPGRADED AREA IN PARA 1.B.(3) TO MEDIUM.
NNNN

ABPW10 PGTW 131000 COR
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL WEATHER ADVISORY FOR THE WESTERN AND
/SOUTH PACIFIC OCEANS REISSUED CORRECTED/131000Z-140600ZSEP2019//
RMKS/
1. WESTERN NORTH PACIFIC AREA (180 TO MALAY PENINSULA):
   A. TROPICAL CYCLONE SUMMARY: NONE.
   B. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE SUMMARY:
      (1) THE AREA OF CONVECTION (INVEST 95W) PREVIOUSLY LOCATED
NEAR 19.3N 132.2E IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 21.0N 133.0E, APPROXIMATELY
429NM SOUTHEAST OF KADENA AB, JAPAN. THIS SYSTEM IS ASSESSED AS A
CIRCULATION EMBEDDED WITHIN THE SOUTHWESTERN PORTION OF A MONSOON
GYRE. MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY (MSI) DEPICTS A CONSOLIDATING
LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION WITH PERSISTENT DEEP CONVECTIVE BANDING ALONG
THE WESTERN PERIPHERY. A 130114Z ASCAT-C IMAGE DEPICTS A WELL
DEFINED LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER WITH DIRECTLY-ASSOCIATED 15-20
KT WINDS TO THE SOUTH AND WEST. A 130625 SSMI 85GHZ IMAGE ALSO SHOWS
A CLOSED, AND NEARLY SYMMETRIC, LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION. STRONGER
WINDS IN EXCESS OF 35 KNOTS ARE EVIDENT FARTHER TO THE SOUTH OF
CIRCULATION, ALONG THE PERIPHERY OF THE MONSOON GYRE WITHIN WHICH
INVEST 95W IS EMBEDDED. THIS DISTURBANCE IS LOCATED IN AN AREA
MARGINALLY FAVORABLE FOR DEVELOPMENT WITH DIFFLUENT UPPER LEVEL
WINDS AND WARM SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES (29-30 CELSIUS), OFFSET BY
MODERATE TO HIGH VERTICAL WIND SHEAR (15-20 KNOTS). GLOBAL MODELS
PREDICT THAT 95W WILL CONTINUE TO SLOWLY CONSOLIDATE AS IT TRACKS
GENERALLY POLEWARD OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS ALONG WITH THE MONSOON
GYRE WITHIN WHICH IT IS EMBEDDED. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS
ARE ESTIMATED AT 15 TO 20 KNOTS, WITH NOTED STRONGER WINDS WELL TO
THE SOUTH OF THE CENTER. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO
BE NEAR 997 MB. THE POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT
TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS IS UPGRADED TO HIGH. SEE
REF B (WTPN21 PGTW 130930) FOR FURTHER DETAILS.
      (2) AN AREA OF CONVECTION (INVEST 98W) PREVIOUSLY LOCATED NEAR
23.1N 139.9E IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 26.7N 142.7E, APPROXIMATELY 139 NM
NORTH-NORTHEAST OF IWO TO. THIS SYSTEM IS ASSESSED AS A DEVELOPING
CIRCULATION EMBEDDED WITHIN THE NORTHEASTERN PORTION OF A MONSOON
GYRE. RECENT ANIMATED MSI SHOWS DEEP CONVECTION DEVELOPING OVER THE
EAST PORTION OF A TIGHTENING LOW-LEVEL TROUGH EVIDENT IN A 130039Z
ASCAT-C PASS. THIS DISTURBANCE IS SITUATED IN AN AREA OF LOW TO
MODERATE (10-15 KNOTS) VERTICAL WIND SHEAR AND FAVORABLE EASTWARD
AND EQUATORWARD OUTFLOW ALOFT. GLOBAL MODELS INDICATE SEVERAL
POSSIBLE OUTCOMES FOR THIS DISTURBANCE, WITH SOME SOLUTIONS
INDICATING THAT IT WILL SEPARATE FROM THE BROADER MONSOON GYRE AND
CONSOLIDATE AND OTHERS INDICATING THAT IT WILL REMAIN EMBEDDED
WITHIN THE MONSOON GYRE. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE
ESTIMATED AT 15 TO 20 KNOTS, WITH STRONGER 25-30 KNOT WINDS
ASSOCIATED WITH THE MONSOON GYRE CIRCULATION EVIDENT WELL TO THE
EAST OF THE DEVELOPING CENTER. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS
ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1001 MB. THE POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A
SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS REMAINS LOW.
      (3) THE AREA OF CONVECTION (INVEST 97W) PREVIOUSLY LOCATED
NEAR 12.7N 156.2E, IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 13.6N 156.2E, APPROXIMATELY
559 NM EAST OF GUAM. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY (MSI)
AND A 130752 SSMIS 91GHZ IMAGE DEPICT A DEVELOPING, COMPACT LOW
LEVEL CIRCULATION WITH A BAND OF PATCHY DEEP CONVECTION ALONG THE
WESTERN PERIPHERY. THIS CIRCULATION IS SITUATED IN AN AREA OF LOW TO
MODERATE VERTICAL WIND SHEAR (10-15 KNOTS), WARM SEA SURFACE
TEMPERATURES (29-30 CELSIUS) AND FAVORABLE EQUATORWARD OUTFLOW
ALOFT. NUMERICAL MODELS INDICATE STEADY DEVELOPMENT AND FURTHER
CONSOLIDATION OF THIS SYSTEM AS IT TRACKS NORTHWESTWARD OVER THE
NEXT FEW DAYS. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 15
TO 20 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1005
MB. THE POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL
CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 IS UPGRADED TO MEDIUM.
      (4) NO OTHER SUSPECT AREAS.
2. SOUTH PACIFIC AREA (WEST COAST OF SOUTH AMERICA TO 135 EAST):
   A. TROPICAL CYCLONE SUMMARY: NONE.
   B. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE SUMMARY: NONE.
3. JUSTIFICATION FOR REISSUE: UPGRADED AREA IN PARA 1.B.(1) TO HIGH.
UPGRADED AREA IN PARA 1.B.(3) TO MEDIUM.
4. JUSTIFICATION FOR CORRECTION: CORRECTED TYPO PARA 1.B.(3).//
NNNN
abpwsair.jpg
wp9519.gif
95W_130930sair.jpg
20190913.0625.f15.85rgb.95W.INVEST.25kts.997mb.19.1N.131.9E.080pc.jpg
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台风

有贴自远方来,不亦抢乎?

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发表于 2019-9-13 17:12 | 显示全部楼层
20190913.0840.himawari-8.ir.95W.INVEST.20kts.1001mb.19.3N.132.2E.100pc.jpg
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发表于 2019-9-13 17:20 | 显示全部楼层
本帖最后由 你知道我是誰 于 2019-9-13 17:32 编辑

找到你了,中心完全外露

這個季風渦旋除了95W和98W外還有多少個中心

LLCC.png
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强热带风暴

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发表于 2019-9-13 18:03 | 显示全部楼层
副高已經破了,正在北上中

up50_2019091300.png
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强台风

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发表于 2019-9-13 19:07 | 显示全部楼层
可能是有史以来台风活跃期最无聊的热带气旋,折腾了许多天成不了器,浪费时间,浪费西太广大区域水温,影响其他区域台风发展,登陆也登不到热点地区或登不了陆。
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