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[2019] 1917号台风“塔巴”(18W.Tapah) - 冲绳渡嘉敷实测阵风47.7m/s,东海北上通过对马海峡

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发表于 2019-9-7 02:00 | 显示全部楼层

JTWC:REMAINS LOW

ABPW10 PGTW 061500
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL WEATHER ADVISORY FOR THE WESTERN AND
/SOUTH PACIFIC OCEANS REISSUED/061500Z-070600ZSEP2019//
REF/A/MSG/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/061351ZSEP2019//
REF/B/MSG/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/061352ZSEP2019//
NARR/REFS A AND B ARE TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNINGS.//
RMKS/
1. WESTERN NORTH PACIFIC AREA (180 TO MALAY PENINSULA):
   A. TROPICAL CYCLONE SUMMARY:
      (1) AT 06SEP19 1200Z, TROPICAL STORM 14W (FAXAI) WAS LOCATED
NEAR 24.7N 148.1E, APPROXIMATELY 371 NM EAST OF IWO TO, AND HAD
TRACKED WEST-NORTHWESTWARD AT 20 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS.
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS WERE ESTIMATED AT 55 KNOTS GUSTING
TO 70 KNOTS. SEE REF A (WTPN31 PGTW 061500) FOR FURTHER DETAILS.
      (2) AT 06SEP19 1200Z, TYPHOON 15W (LINGLING) WAS LOCATED NEAR
31.2N 125.0E, APPROXIMATELY 293 NM SOUTH- SOUTHWEST OF KUNSAN AB,
AND HAD TRACKED NORTHWARD AT 16 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS.
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS WERE ESTIMATED AT 100 KNOTS GUSTING
TO 125 KNOTS. SEE REF B (WTPN32 PGTW 061500) FOR FURTHER DETAILS.
      (3) NO OTHER TROPICAL CYCLONES.
   B. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE SUMMARY:
      (1) AN AREA OF CONVECTION (INVEST 95W), PREVIOUSLY LOCATED
NEAR 10.5N 145.2E, IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 13.0N 153.0E, APPROXIMATELY
485 NM EAST OF GUAM. ANIMATED ENHANCED INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY
DEPICTS A BROAD AREA OF DEEP CONVECTION TO THE SOUTHWEST OF A WEAK
LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION (LLC). A 061125Z METOP-B ASCAT PASS SHOWS A
CONFUSED, WEAK LLC SURROUNDED BY 10 TO 15 KNOT WINDS. 95W IS
CURRENTLY IN A FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT WITH EXCELLENT EQUATORWARD
OUTFLOW AND WARM (31 TO 32 CELSIUS) SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES
SLIGHTLY OFFSET BY MARGINAL (15 TO 25 KNOT) VERTICAL WIND SHEAR.
GLOBAL MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT THAT 95W WILL TRACK GENERALLY
WESTWARD AND INTENSIFY WHILE REMAINING VERY BROAD. THERE IS
DISAGREEMENT IN THE MODELS REGARDING THE TIMING OF THE
INTENSIFICATION, WITH TRACKERS VARYING FROM 48 TO 96 HOURS. MAXIMUM
SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 10 TO 15 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA
LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1008 MB. THE POTENTIAL FOR
THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24
HOURS REMAINS LOW.
      (2) NO OTHER SUSPECT AREAS.
2. SOUTH PACIFIC AREA (WEST COAST OF SOUTH AMERICA TO 135 EAST):
   A. TROPICAL CYCLONE SUMMARY: NONE.
   B. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE SUMMARY: NONE.
3. JUSTIFICATION FOR REISSUE: SIGNIFICANTLY RELOCATED AREA IN PARA
1.B.(1).//

NNNN
061415abpwsair.jpg
20190906.1126.mtb.ASCAT.wind.95W.INVEST.15kts-1007mb.104N.1440E.25km.noqc.jpg
20190906.1126.mtb.ASCAT.wind.95W.INVEST.15kts-1008mb.130N.1530E.25km.noqc.jpg
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台风

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发表于 2019-9-7 09:16 | 显示全部楼层
sfwx_c_72.png
HKO預測3天後的大餅。
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热带风暴

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发表于 2019-9-7 12:47 | 显示全部楼层
历史也过于惊人的相似了吧!
99年9月16日
18年9月16日
19年9月16日?
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顶级超台

Water or wine

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发表于 2019-9-7 13:22 | 显示全部楼层
h2o 发表于 2019-9-7 12:47
历史也过于惊人的相似了吧!
99年9月16日
18年9月16日

還有逢9字尾的年份都必有大颱風影響香港
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发表于 2019-9-7 15:10 | 显示全部楼层
禾愛糖 发表于 2019-9-7 13:22
還有逢9字尾的年份都必有大颱風影響香港

1959年華南風季一般
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世纪风王

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金玉良言

发表于 2019-9-7 15:24 | 显示全部楼层
本帖最后由 dujuan2003 于 2019-9-7 15:31 编辑
禾愛糖 发表于 2019-9-7 13:22
還有逢9字尾的年份都必有大颱風影響香港

Miss.......的「XX年循環」「理論」再現!?
根據信號資料庫, 1959、1969年最高只是懸掛過三號風球, 1959年甚至只有兩股TC襲港........所以這項「理論」是不成立的......
9.png

btw, 關於風球的問題, 建議還是轉到港澳帖討論吧........
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发表于 2019-9-7 15:26 | 显示全部楼层

JTWC:REMAINS LOW

本帖最后由 红豆棒冰冰 于 2019-9-7 15:31 编辑

ABPW10 PGTW 070600
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL WEATHER ADVISORY FOR THE WESTERN AND
/SOUTH PACIFIC OCEANS/070600Z-080600ZSEP2019//
REF/A/MSG/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/070151ZSEP2019//
REF/B/MSG/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/070152ZSEP2019//
NARR/REFS A AND B ARE TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNINGS.//
RMKS/
1. WESTERN NORTH PACIFIC AREA (180 TO MALAY PENINSULA):
   A. TROPICAL CYCLONE SUMMARY:
      (1) AT 07SEP19 0000Z, TYPHOON 14W (FAXAI) WAS LOCATED NEAR
26.7N 144.9E, APPROXIMATELY 581 NM SOUTH-SOUTHEAST OF YOKOSUKA,
JAPAN, AND HAD TRACKED NORTHWESTWARD AT 17 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX
HOURS. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS WERE ESTIMATED AT 75 KNOTS
GUSTING TO 90 KNOTS. SEE REF A (WTPN31 PGTW 070300) FOR FURTHER
DETAILS.
      (2) AT 07SEP19 0000Z, TYPHOON 15W (LINGLING) WAS LOCATED NEAR
36.0N 125.0E, APPROXIMATELY 117 NM SOUTHWEST OF OSAN AB, AND HAD
TRACKED NORTHWARD AT 27 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. MAXIMUM
SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS WERE ESTIMATED AT 75 KNOTS GUSTING TO 90
KNOTS. SEE REF B (WTPN32 PGTW 070300) FOR FURTHER DETAILS.
      (3) NO OTHER TROPICAL CYCLONES.
   B. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE SUMMARY:
      (1) THE AREA OF CONVECTION (INVEST 95W) PREVIOUSLY LOCATED
NEAR 13.0N 153.0E, IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 12.7N 149.8E, APPROXIMATELY
300 NM EAST OF GUAM. ANIMATED ENHANCED INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY
DEPICTS A BROAD AREA OF DEEP CONVECTION WITH A WEAK LOW LEVEL
CIRCULATION. A 062359Z ASCAT PASS FURTHER ELUCIDATES A BROAD
CIRCULATION WITH GENERALLY WEAK WINDS. 95W IS CURRENTLY IN A
FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT WITH EXCELLENT EQUATORWARD OUTFLOW, WARM (29
TO 30 CELSIUS) SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES AND LOW (<15 KNOT) VERTICAL
WIND SHEAR. GLOBAL MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT THAT 95W WILL TRACK
GENERALLY WESTWARD AND INTENSIFY WHILE REMAINING VERY BROAD. THERE
IS DISAGREEMENT IN THE MODELS REGARDING THE TIMING OF THE
INTENSIFICATION. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 10
TO 15 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1007
MB. THE POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL
CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS REMAINS LOW.

      (2) AN AREA OF CONVECTION (INVEST 96W) HAS PERSISTED NEAR
25.4N 123.5E, APPROXIMATELY 106 NM EAST-NORTHEAST OF TAIPEI, TAIWAN.
ANIMATED ENHANCED INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY ALONG WITH A 070136Z
MHS 89GHZ PASS DEPICT A BROAD AREA OF DISORGANIZED CONVECTION. 96W
IS CURRENTLY IN A FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT FOR DEVELOPMENT WITH WARM
(29 TO 30 CELSIUS) SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES AND LOW (<15 KNOT)
VERTICAL WIND SHEAR, BUT THIS IS OFFSET BY A LACK OF UPPER LEVEL
SUPPORT. GLOBAL MODELS GENERALLY AGREE THAT THE SYSTEM WILL ORGANIZE
AND TRACK NORTHWARD OVER THE NEXT 48 HOURS. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED
SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 10 TO 15 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL
PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1003 MB. THE POTENTIAL FOR THE
DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24
HOURS IS LOW.
      (3) NO OTHER SUSPECT AREAS.
2. SOUTH PACIFIC AREA (WEST COAST OF SOUTH AMERICA TO 135 EAST):
   A. TROPICAL CYCLONE SUMMARY: NONE.
   B. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE SUMMARY: NONE.//
NNNN
abpwsair.jpg
20190906.2359.mtb.ASCAT.wind.95W.INVEST.15kts-1007mb.137N.1512E.25km.jpeg
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金玉良言

发表于 2019-9-7 15:58 | 显示全部楼层

JMA预计24h后LPA,48h后仍为LPA

19090809.png 19090909.png
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发表于 2019-9-7 16:02 | 显示全部楼层
ECMWF 00Z撞台,系集大致趋向东南沿海
ecmwf_z500_mslp_wpac_fh0-240.gif
wpac.png
eastasia.png
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发表于 2019-9-8 00:50 | 显示全部楼层
福建全省必须重点防台

gfs_mslp_uv850_wpac_34.png
sfcwind_mslp.as (2).png
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