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[2019] 1917号台风“塔巴”(18W.Tapah) - 冲绳渡嘉敷实测阵风47.7m/s,东海北上通过对马海峡

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有贴自远方来,不亦抢乎?

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发表于 2019-9-8 23:06 | 显示全部楼层
LOW PRESSURE AREA 1006 HPA NEAR 13N 144E WEST SLOWLY.
19090821.png
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发表于 2019-9-9 06:50 | 显示全部楼层
今天各家报的都是东北部分裂出新的一个,然后在互相藤原
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发表于 2019-9-9 08:32 | 显示全部楼层
putting 发表于 2019-9-9 06:50
今天各家报的都是东北部分裂出新的一个,然后在互相藤原

GFS0812Z还是比较正常的,有尾巴发展,但是不藤原。18Z和EC一样了,一旦藤原,路径就更奇葩了。
EC0812Z就是藤原完,又被陆高断开,引导到南海。。。
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发表于 2019-9-9 09:17 | 显示全部楼层
sfwx_c_66.png
HKO也報出未來日子會有2個系統在藤原。
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发表于 2019-9-9 10:33 | 显示全部楼层
本帖最后由 1007圆规 于 2019-9-9 10:40 编辑

LOW PRESSURE AREA 1006 HPA NEAR 13N 143E WEST SLOWLY.
19090909.png
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发表于 2019-9-9 13:38 | 显示全部楼层
janekean 发表于 2019-9-9 08:32
GFS0812Z还是比较正常的,有尾巴发展,但是不藤原。18Z和EC一样了,一旦藤原,路径就更奇葩了。
EC0812Z ...

藤原概率好像挺大的,不过这货数值都不看好能发展起来,比较弱,还多中心。。被牵着走
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发表于 2019-9-9 13:58 | 显示全部楼层
274502599 发表于 2019-9-9 13:38
藤原概率好像挺大的,不过这货数值都不看好能发展起来,比较弱,还多中心。。被牵着走

嗯嗯,GFS0900z多次多个藤原。。。数值都要算晕了
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发表于 2019-9-9 14:25 | 显示全部楼层
LCC_IR1_CR_2750-2019-09-09-14-00.jpg
看樣子今天好像整合不錯。
PS:菲律賓附近是劍魚的殘餘嗎,好像有所發展。
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发表于 2019-9-9 14:37 | 显示全部楼层

JTWC:REMAINS MEDIUM

本帖最后由 红豆棒冰冰 于 2019-9-9 14:39 编辑

ABPW10 PGTW 090600
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL WEATHER ADVISORY FOR THE WESTERN AND
/SOUTH PACIFIC OCEANS/090600Z-100600ZSEP2019//
REF/A/MSG/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/080151ZSEP2019//
AMPN/REF A IS A TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING.//
RMKS/
1. WESTERN NORTH PACIFIC AREA (180 TO MALAY PENINSULA):
   A. TROPICAL CYCLONE SUMMARY:
      (1) AT 09SEP19 0000Z, TYPHOON 14W (FAXAI) WAS LOCATED NEAR
36.3N 141.0E, APPROXIMATELY 87 NM NORTHEAST OF YOKOSUKA, JAPAN, AND
HAD TRACKED NORTHEASTWARD AT 15 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS.
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS WERE ESTIMATED AT 75 KNOTS GUSTING
TO 90 KNOTS. SEE REF A (WTPN31 PGTW 090300) FOR FURTHER DETAILS.
      (2) NO OTHER TROPICAL CYCLONES.
    B. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE SUMMARY:
      (1) THE AREA OF CONVECTION (INVEST 95W) PREVIOUSLY LOCATED
NEAR 12.7N 149.8E IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 13.8N 138.9E, APPROXIMATELY
342 NM WEST OF GUAM. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY AND A
090355Z AMSR2 89GHZ IMAGE DEPICT A BROAD, POORLY DEVELOPED LOW-LEVEL
CIRCULATION (LLC) WITH FRAGMENTED BANDING TO THE NORTH AND SOUTH.
UPPER-LEVEL ANALYSIS INDICATES LOW VERTICAL WIND SHEAR (5-15 KNOTS)
OFFSET BY MARGINAL UPPER-LEVEL CONVERGENCE. IN ADDITION, SOUNDINGS
FROM PGUM INDICATE DEEP EASTERLY FLOW, FURTHER HINDERING
DEVELOPMENT. SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES CONTINUE TO BE FAVORABLE AT 29-
30 CELSIUS. GLOBAL MODELS INDICATE A QUASISTATIONARY MOTION THROUGH
TAU 48 WITH GRADUAL DEVELOPMENT. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE
ESTIMATED AT 15 TO 20 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED
TO BE NEAR 1004 MB. THE POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A
SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS REMAINS
MEDIUM.

      (2) THE AREA OF CONVECTION (INVEST 96W) PREVIOUSLY LOCATED
NEAR 28.8N 125.3E IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 32.4N 124.0E, APPROXIMATELY
248 NM SOUTH-SOUTHWEST OF KUNSAN AB, SOUTH KOREA. THIS SYSTEM IS
ASSESSED AS A SUBTROPICAL CYCLONE AND IS LOCATED UNDER A SHARP UPPER-
LEVEL SUBTROPICAL SHORTWAVE TROUGH EVIDENT AT 200MB AND 500MB.
ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY DEPICTS AN ASYMMETRIC,
EXPOSED LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION (LLC) WITH MINIMAL CONVECTION AND
BANDS OF LOW-LEVEL STRATOCUMULUS CLOUDS. A 090511Z GMI 89GHZ
MICROWAVE IMAGE REVEALS A BROAD, DEFINED LLC WITH SHALLOW BANDING. A
090054Z PARTIAL ASCAT IMAGE SHOWS A BROAD CIRCULATION WITH 25 TO 30
KNOT WINDS OVER THE EASTERN SEMICIRCLE. UPPER-LEVEL ANALYSIS
INDICATES A MARGINAL ENVIRONMENT WITH MODERATE TO HIGH (20-25 KNOTS)
SOUTHERLY VERTICAL WIND SHEAR AND WEAK POLEWARD DIVERGENCE. GLOBAL
MODELS INDICATE THE SUBTROPICAL SYSTEM SHOULD TRACK POLEWARD WITH
MINIMAL DEVELOPMENT BUT A LOW PROBABILITY FOR TRANSITIONING INTO A
WARM-CORE TROPICAL SYSTEM. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE
ESTIMATED AT 25 TO 30 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED
TO BE NEAR 1002 MB. THE POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A
SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS REMAINS MEDIUM.
      (3) NO OTHER SUSPECT AREAS.
2. SOUTH PACIFIC AREA (WEST COAST OF SOUTH AMERICA TO 135 EAST):
   A. TROPICAL CYCLONE SUMMARY: NONE.
   B. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE SUMMARY: NONE.//
NNNN
abpwsair.jpg
20190909.0355.gw1.89pct89h89v.95W.INVEST.20kts.1004mb.12.1N.139.7E.85pc.jpg
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发表于 2019-9-9 15:00 | 显示全部楼层
下午报ec直接调没这货,超大型的季风低压转向日本
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