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[2019] 1917号台风“塔巴”(18W.Tapah) - 冲绳渡嘉敷实测阵风47.7m/s,东海北上通过对马海峡

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强台风

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发表于 2019-9-10 10:04 | 显示全部楼层
274502599 发表于 2019-9-10 09:56
[quote][url=forum.php?mod=redirect

只是西侧对流旺盛,但是数值始终更看好东侧的中心发展

数值不代表实况
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热带风暴

一条通往星星的崎岖道路

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发表于 2019-9-10 10:36 | 显示全部楼层
本帖最后由 麦尔修Mark 于 2019-9-10 10:38 编辑

GALE WARNING.
WESTERLY TO NORTHWESTERLY WINDS 30 TO 35 KNOTS
EXPECTED WINDS 30 TO 35 KNOTS FOR NEXT 12 HOURS
PREVAILING OVER WATERS BOUNDED BY 12N 132E 12N 138E 08N 142E 08N 132E
12N 132E.

LOW PRESSURE AREA 1004 HPA NEAR 13N 141E WEST SLOWLY.
Screenshot_2019-09-10-10-37-45_cn.wps.moffice_eng.png
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发表于 2019-9-10 13:51 | 显示全部楼层

JTWC:REMAINS MEDIUM

本帖最后由 红豆棒冰冰 于 2019-9-10 13:52 编辑

ABPW10 PGTW 100300
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL WEATHER ADVISORY FOR THE WESTERN AND
/SOUTH PACIFIC OCEANS REISSUED/100300Z-100600ZSEP2019//
REF/A/MSG/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/091951ZSEP2019//
AMPN/REF A IS A TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING.//
RMKS/
1. WESTERN NORTH PACIFIC AREA (180 TO MALAY PENINSULA):
   A. TROPICAL CYCLONE SUMMARY:
      (1) AT 09SEP19 1800Z, TROPICAL STORM 14W (FAXAI) WAS LOCATED
NEAR 39.0N 146.4E, APPROXIMATELY 254 NM EAST-SOUTHEAST OF MISAWA,
JAPAN, AND HAD TRACKED EAST-NORTHEASTWARD AT 17 KNOTS OVER THE PAST
SIX HOURS. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS WERE ESTIMATED AT 45
KNOTS GUSTING TO 55 KNOTS. SEE REF A (WTPN31 PGTW 092100) FOR THE
FINAL WARNING ON THIS SYSTEM.
      (2) NO OTHER TROPICAL CYCLONES.
   B. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE SUMMARY:
      (1) THE AREA OF CONVECTION (INVEST 96W) PREVIOUSLY LOCATED
NEAR 33.5N 123.5E, IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 34.8N 123.9E, APPROXIMATELY
148 NM WEST-SOUTHWEST OF KUNSAN AB. THIS SYSTEM IS ASSESSED AS A
SUBTROPICAL CYCLONE. THE CIRCULATION IS LOCATED UNDER A SHARP
UPPER-LEVEL SUBTROPICAL SHORTWAVE TROUGH EVIDENT AT 200MB AND 500MB.
ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY DEPICTS AN ASYMMETRIC,
EXPOSED LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION (LLC) WITH MINIMAL CONVECTION AND BANDS
OF LOW-LEVEL STRATOCUMULUS CLOUDS. UPPER-LEVEL ANALYSIS INDICATES A
MARGINAL ENVIRONMENT WITH MODERATE TO HIGH (20-25 KNOTS)
SOUTHWESTERLY VERTICAL WIND SHEAR AND WEAK POLEWARD DIVERGENCE.
GLOBAL MODELS FORECAST THE SUBTROPICAL SYSTEM TO TRACK POLEWARD WITH
MINIMAL DEVELOPMENT AND A VERY LOW PROBABILITY OF TRANSITIONING INTO
A WARM-CORE TROPICAL SYSTEM. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE
ESTIMATED AT 20 TO 25 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED
TO BE NEAR 1004 MB. THE POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A
SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS IS DOWNGRADED
TO LOW.
      (2) THE AREA OF CONVECTION (INVEST 95W) PREVIOUSLY LOCATED
NEAR 12.2N 136.4E, IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 11.8N 135.9E, APPROXIMATELY
525 NM WEST OF GUAM. A 100037Z METOP-B 89GHZ MICROWAVE IMAGE DEPICTS
A BROAD, POORLY-ORGANIZED MONSOON DEPRESSION WITH ASSOCIATED
CONVECTION PRIMARILY SHEARED TO THE WEST. UPPER-LEVEL ANALYSIS
INDICATES MODERATE TO HIGH VERTICAL WIND SHEAR (20-25 KNOTS) AND
STRONG WESTWARD AND EQUATORWARD DIFFLUENCE ALOFT. SEA SURFACE
TEMPERATURES CONTINUE TO BE FAVORABLE FOR DEVELOPMENT AT 29-30
CELSIUS. GLOBAL MODELS INDICATE SLOW EASTWARD TO POLEWARD MOTION
THROUGH TAU 48, AND GRADUAL CONSOLIDATION OF THE LLC. MAXIMUM
SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 15 TO 20 KNOTS NEAR THE
CENTER POSITION, WITH STRONGER 30 TO 35 WINDS TO THE SOUTHWEST ALONG
THE PERIPHERY OF THE BROADER CIRCULATION. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE
IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 999 MB. THE POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF
A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS REMAINS
MEDIUM.
      (3) NO OTHER SUSPECT AREAS.
2. SOUTH PACIFIC AREA (WEST COAST OF SOUTH AMERICA TO 135 EAST):
   A. TROPICAL CYCLONE SUMMARY: NONE.
   B. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE SUMMARY: NONE.
3. JUSTIFICATION FOR REISSUE: DOWNGRADED AREA IN PARA 1.B.(1) TO
LOW. UPDATED AREA IN PARA 1.B.(2).//
NNNN
abpwsair.jpg
20190910.0037.metopb.89h.95W.INVEST.20kts.999mb.11.8N.135.9E.100pc.jpg
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发表于 2019-9-10 16:02 | 显示全部楼层
目前的形态看,西侧中心已形成完整的环流,离吕宋岛还有一段距离。随着加强,东侧中心的西侧环流会受主中心的影响难以闭合,发展缓慢,难以与主中心抗争
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论坛版主-副热带高压

ghj说不抢帖会后悔半个月,咕咕咕

Rank: 7Rank: 7Rank: 7

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发表于 2019-9-10 16:29 | 显示全部楼层

JMA:TD[W]

本帖最后由 炎煌深沉 于 2019-9-10 17:20 编辑

WARNING.
TROPICAL DEPRESSION 998 HPA
AT 12.0N 135.9E SEA EAST OF PHILIPPINES MOVING WEST SLOWLY.
POSITION POOR.
MAX WINDS 30 KNOTS.
asas.PNG
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发表于 2019-9-10 17:20 | 显示全部楼层
19091015.png
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发表于 2019-9-10 23:55 | 显示全部楼层
风场扫描显示95W西南侧风力强劲,有45kt风旗
20190910.1209.mta.ASCAT.wind.95W.INVEST.20kts-1002mb.124N.1366E.25km.jpeg
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热带低压

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发表于 2019-9-11 10:31 | 显示全部楼层
請問有誰可以發一個EC系集的連結,謝謝!
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我dei到啦!

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发表于 2019-9-11 10:34 | 显示全部楼层
jma在18z发布GW,目前维持
JMA GW 091100Z.png
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发表于 2019-9-11 11:18 | 显示全部楼层
本帖最后由 台风蔷薇 于 2019-9-11 23:09 编辑

https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/?model=ecmwf&region=wpac&pkg=z500_mslp
这里可以看到各气象台的涡度预报
EC预报系统最终撞台消散 ecmwf_z500_mslp_wpac_11.png
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