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东太平洋热带风暴“基可”(13E.Kiko) - 二次增强之路受阻 - NHC MAX:115KT

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强热带风暴

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1528
发表于 2019-9-10 14:11 | 显示全部楼层 |阅读模式
本帖最后由 1007圆规 于 2019-9-20 07:18 编辑

EP, 90, 2019091006, , BEST, 0, 108N, 1024W, 20, 1009, DB
90E INVEST 190910 0600 10.8N 102.4W EPAC 20 1009

20190910.0600.goes-17.ir.90E.INVEST.20kts.1009mb.10.8N.102.4W.100pc.jpg
IMG_3249.PNG IMG_3250.PNG

1. A broad area of low pressure located several hundred miles
southwest of Acapulco, Mexico, is producing a large area of
disorganized showers and thunderstorms.  Environmental conditions
are expected to be conducive for development, and a tropical
depression is likely to form within the next few days while the
system moves west-northwestward at 10 to 15 mph.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...medium...60 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...high...90 percent.

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参与人数 1金钱 +3 威望 +3 收起 理由
红豆棒冰冰 + 3 + 3 90E

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5

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强热带风暴

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1528
 楼主| 发表于 2019-9-10 15:31 | 显示全部楼层

TCFA

本帖最后由 1007圆规 于 2019-9-10 17:25 编辑

WTPN21 PHNC 100730
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION ALERT (INVEST 90E)//
RMKS/
1. FORMATION OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE IS POSSIBLE WITHIN
160 NM EITHER SIDE OF A LINE FROM 10.6N 101.9W TO 13.9N 110.5W
WITHIN THE NEXT 12 TO 24 HOURS. AVAILABLE DATA DOES NOT JUSTIFY
ISSUANCE OF NUMBERED TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNINGS AT THIS TIME.
WINDS IN THE AREA ARE ESTIMATED TO BE 20 TO 25 KNOTS. METSAT
IMAGERY AT 100600Z INDICATES THAT A CIRCULATION CENTER IS LOCATED
NEAR 10.8N 102.4W. THE SYSTEM IS MOVING WESTWARD AT 10 KNOTS.
2. REMARKS: AN AREA OF CONVECTION (INVEST 90E) HAS PERSISTED NEAR
10.8N 102.4W, APPROXIMATELY 600 NM SOUTH-SOUTHEAST OF PUERTO
VALLARTA, MEXICO. CURRENT ENHANCED INFRARED IMAGERY DEPICTS BROAD
CONVECTION WITH LIMITED TURNING IN THE LOWER LEVELS. UPPER-LEVEL
ANALYSIS INDICATES MODERATE TO HIGH VERTICAL WIND SHEAR (20-25
KNOTS) OFFSET BY STRONG DIVERGENCE ALOFT TO THE WEST OF THE CURRENT
POSITION. SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES ARE ASSESSED AS FAVORABLE FOR
DEVELOPMENT AT 29-30 DEGREES CELSIUS. GLOBAL MODELS INDICATE SLOW
WESTWARD MOTION FOR THE NEXT 36 HOURS AS THE SYSTEM CONSOLIDATES AND
TURNS TO THE WEST-NORTHWEST. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE
ESTIMATED AT 20 TO 25 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED
TO BE NEAR 1009 MB. THE POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A
SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS IS HIGH.
3. THIS ALERT WILL BE REISSUED, UPGRADED TO WARNING OR CANCELLED BY
110730Z.//
NNNN
ep9019.gif 90E_100730sair.jpg
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热带风暴

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641
发表于 2019-9-10 19:31 | 显示全部楼层

NHC:60%/90%

本帖最后由 POCKETBOX 于 2019-9-10 19:41 编辑

1. A large and disorganized area of showers and thunderstorms located
several hundred miles southwest of Acapulco, Mexico, is associated
with a broad area of low pressure. Environmental conditions are
expected to be conducive for development, and a tropical depression
is likely to form within the next few days while the system moves
west-northwestward at 10 to 15 mph.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...medium...60 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...high...90 percent.
two_pac_2d1.png
two_pac_5d1.png
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热带低压

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159
发表于 2019-9-11 07:55 | 显示全部楼层
NHC:80/90%
1. Widespread cloudiness and thunderstorms are beginning to show
signs of organization in association with a broad area of low
pressure located several hundred miles southwest of Acapulco,
Mexico. Environmental conditions are conducive for additional
development of this disturbance, and a tropical depression is
likely to form within the next couple of days while the low
moves westward to west-northwestward at 10 to 15 mph.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...high...80 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...high...90 percent.
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发表于 2019-9-11 14:30 | 显示全部楼层

NHC:80%/90%

ZCZC MIATWOEP ALL
TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM

Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1100 PM PDT Tue Sep 10 2019

For the eastern North Pacific...east of 140 degrees west longitude:

1. A broad area of low pressure located several hundred miles southwest
of Acapulco, Mexico, is gradually becoming better defined.
Associated thunderstorm activity has continued to increase, and
environmental conditions are conducive for further development of
this disturbance, and a tropical depression is likely to form within
the next couple of days while the low moves westward to
west-northwestward at 10 to 15 mph.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...high...80 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...high...90 percent.


2. An area of low pressure is expected to form more than 1000 miles to
the southwest of the southern tip of the Baja California Peninsula
during the next couple of days.  Some additional development is
possible while the system moves slowly westward through the weekend.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...near 0 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...low...30 percent.

Forecaster Stewart
two_pac_2d0.png
two_pac_2d1.png
two_pac_5d0.png
two_pac_5d1.png
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论坛版主-副热带高压

ghj说不抢帖会后悔半个月,咕咕咕

Rank: 7Rank: 7Rank: 7

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14387
发表于 2019-9-11 15:26 | 显示全部楼层
本帖最后由 炎煌深沉 于 2019-9-11 17:06 编辑

WTPN21 PHNC 110730
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION ALERT (INVEST 90E) REISSUED//
REF/A/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/100721Z SEP 19//
AMPN/REF A IS A TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION ALERT (WTPN21 PHNC
100730)//
RMKS/
1. FORMATION OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE IS POSSIBLE WITHIN
160 NM EITHER SIDE OF A LINE FROM 12.8N 104.9W TO 15.3N 113.2W
WITHIN THE NEXT 12 TO 24 HOURS. AVAILABLE DATA DOES NOT JUSTIFY
ISSUANCE OF NUMBERED TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNINGS AT THIS TIME.
WINDS IN THE AREA ARE ESTIMATED TO BE 20 TO 25 KNOTS. METSAT
IMAGERY AT 110600Z INDICATES THAT A CIRCULATION CENTER IS LOCATED
NEAR 13.0N 105.4W. THE SYSTEM IS MOVING WEST-NORTHWESTWARD AT 09
KNOTS.
2. REMARKS: AN AREA OF CONVECTION (INVEST 90E), PREVIOUSLY LOCATED
NEAR 10.8N 102.4W, IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 13.0N 105.4W APPROXIMATELY
450 NM SOUTH OF PUERTO VALLARTA, MEXICO. ANIMATED ENHANCED INFRARED
SATELLITE IMAGERY AND AN 110437Z PARTIAL ASCAT PASS SHOW A BROAD
REGION OF MIDLEVEL TURNING WITH DISORGANIZED CONVECTION ABOVE A
REGION OF SHARP TROUGHING WITH 15-20KT WINDS. LOW TO MODERATE (10-
20KT) VERTICAL WIND SHEAR, ADEQUATE DIVERGENCE ALOFT, AND WARM (30-
32C) SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES ARE CREATING AN OVERALL FAVORABLE
ENVIRONMENT FOR FURTHER DEVELOPMENT. GLOBAL MODELS ARE IN STRONG
AGREEMENT THAT 90E WILL CONTINUE TO DEVELOP INTO A TROPICAL STORM
OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS AS IT TRACKS TO THE WEST-NORTHWEST. MAXIMUM
SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 20 TO 25 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA
LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1004 MB. THE POTENTIAL FOR
THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24
HOURS IS HIGH. THIS SUPERSEDES REF A.
3. THIS ALERT WILL BE REISSUED, UPGRADED TO WARNING OR CANCELLED BY
120730Z.//
NNNN
ep9019.gif
90E_110730sair.jpg
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1

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641

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热带风暴

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641
发表于 2019-9-11 19:32 | 显示全部楼层

NHC:80%/90%

本帖最后由 POCKETBOX 于 2019-9-11 19:44 编辑

1. A broad area of low pressure located several hundred miles
west-southwest of Acapulco, Mexico, is gradually becoming better
defined. Environmental conditions are conducive for further
development of this disturbance, and a tropical depression is likely
to form within the next couple of days while the low moves westward
to west-northwestward at 10 to 15 mph.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...high...80 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...high...90 percent.
two_pac_2d1.png
two_pac_5d1.png
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159

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热带低压

积分
159
发表于 2019-9-12 07:57 | 显示全部楼层
NHC:90/90%
1. An area of low pressure is located several hundred miles south of
the southern tip of the Baja California Peninsula. Recent visible
imagery and satellite-derived wind data indicate that this system
has a broad closed surface circulation, but the associated showers
and thunderstorms are somewhat limited and disorganized. However,
any increase in thunderstorm activity will result in the formation
of a tropical depression, and this will likely happen tonight or
early Thursday while the low moves westward to west-northwestward at
10 to 15 mph.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...high...90 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...high...90 percent.
two_pac_5d0.png
two_pac_2d0.png
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热带风暴

一条通往星星的崎岖道路

积分
729
发表于 2019-9-12 15:41 | 显示全部楼层
本帖最后由 麦尔修Mark 于 2019-9-12 17:19 编辑

WTPN21 PHNC 120730
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION ALERT (INVEST 90E) REISSUED//
REF/A/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/110721Z SEP 19//
AMPN/REF A IS A TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION ALERT//
RMKS/
1. FORMATION OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE IS POSSIBLE WITHIN
160 NM EITHER SIDE OF A LINE FROM 14.8N 108.5W TO 16.9N 117.4W
WITHIN THE NEXT 12 TO 24 HOURS. AVAILABLE DATA DOES NOT JUSTIFY
ISSUANCE OF NUMBERED TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNINGS AT THIS TIME. WINDS
IN THE AREA ARE ESTIMATED TO BE 20 TO 25 KNOTS. METSAT IMAGERY AT
120700Z INDICATES THAT A CIRCULATION CENTER IS LOCATED NEAR 15.2N
109.5W. THE SYSTEM IS MOVING WEST-NORTHWESTWARD AT 09 KNOTS.
2. REMARKS: THE AREA OF CONVECTION (INVEST 90E), PREVIOUSLY LOCATED
NEAR 13.0N 105.4W IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 15.2N 109.5W, APPROXIMATELY
453 NM SOUTH OF CABO SAN LUCAS, MEXICO. ANIMATED ENHANCED INFRARED
SATELLITE IMAGERY DEPICTS A SLOWLY CONSOLIDATING LOW LEVEL
CIRCULATION WITH FORMATIVE BANDING. A 120416Z MHS 89GHZ IMAGE SHOWS
AN EXPOSED LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION WITH CURVED BANDING TO THE NORTH. A
120417Z ASCAT-B IMAGE REVEALS A DEFINED CIRCULATION AND WIND SPEEDS
OF 15-20 KTS OVER THE NORTHERN SEMICIRCLE AND 10-15 KT WINDS OVER
THE SOUTHERN SEMICIRCLE. UPPER LEVEL ANALYSIS SHOWS A FAVORABLE
ENVIRONMENT WITH GOOD OUTFLOW AND LOW (10-15 KT) VERTICAL WIND
SHEAR. SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES OF 29-30 CELSIUS ARE ALSO FAVORABLE
FOR FURTHER DEVELOPMENT. GLOBAL MODELS ARE IN STRONG AGREEMENT THAT
90E WILL CONTINUE TO TRACK TO THE WEST-NORTHWEST WITH STEADY
DEVELOPMENT. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 20 TO
25 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1004
MB. THE POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL
CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS REMAINS HIGH. THIS SUPERSEDES REF A
90E_120730sair.jpg
ep9019.gif
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43

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论坛版主-副热带高压

ghj说不抢帖会后悔半个月,咕咕咕

Rank: 7Rank: 7Rank: 7

积分
14387
发表于 2019-9-12 16:38 | 显示全部楼层
本帖最后由 炎煌深沉 于 2019-9-12 17:10 编辑

WTPN21 PHNC 120730
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION ALERT (INVEST 90E) REISSUED//
REF/A/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/110721Z SEP 19//
AMPN/REF A IS A TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION ALERT//
RMKS/
1. FORMATION OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE IS POSSIBLE WITHIN
160 NM EITHER SIDE OF A LINE FROM 14.8N 108.5W TO 16.9N 117.4W
WITHIN THE NEXT 12 TO 24 HOURS. AVAILABLE DATA DOES NOT JUSTIFY
ISSUANCE OF NUMBERED TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNINGS AT THIS TIME. WINDS
IN THE AREA ARE ESTIMATED TO BE 20 TO 25 KNOTS. METSAT IMAGERY AT
120700Z INDICATES THAT A CIRCULATION CENTER IS LOCATED NEAR 15.2N
109.5W. THE SYSTEM IS MOVING WEST-NORTHWESTWARD AT 09 KNOTS.
2. REMARKS: THE AREA OF CONVECTION (INVEST 90E), PREVIOUSLY LOCATED
NEAR 13.0N 105.4W IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 15.2N 109.5W, APPROXIMATELY
453 NM SOUTH OF CABO SAN LUCAS, MEXICO. ANIMATED ENHANCED INFRARED
SATELLITE IMAGERY DEPICTS A SLOWLY CONSOLIDATING LOW LEVEL
CIRCULATION WITH FORMATIVE BANDING. A 120416Z MHS 89GHZ IMAGE SHOWS
AN EXPOSED LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION WITH CURVED BANDING TO THE NORTH. A
120417Z ASCAT-B IMAGE REVEALS A DEFINED CIRCULATION AND WIND SPEEDS
OF 15-20 KTS OVER THE NORTHERN SEMICIRCLE AND 10-15 KT WINDS OVER
THE SOUTHERN SEMICIRCLE. UPPER LEVEL ANALYSIS SHOWS A FAVORABLE
ENVIRONMENT WITH GOOD OUTFLOW AND LOW (10-15 KT) VERTICAL WIND
SHEAR. SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES OF 29-30 CELSIUS ARE ALSO FAVORABLE
FOR FURTHER DEVELOPMENT. GLOBAL MODELS ARE IN STRONG AGREEMENT THAT
90E WILL CONTINUE TO TRACK TO THE WEST-NORTHWEST WITH STEADY
DEVELOPMENT. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 20 TO
25 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1004
MB. THE POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL
CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS REMAINS HIGH. THIS SUPERSEDES REF A
(WTPN21 PHNC 110730).
3. THIS ALERT WILL BE REISSUED, UPGRADED TO WARNING OR CANCELLED BY
130730Z.//
NNNN
84DD6A98-5B03-4ACD-A28C-573FC8E12D4C.gif
2FCEA34C-DF08-486D-9201-216FACFDADC6.jpeg
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