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[2019] 东太平洋四级飓风“基可”(13E.Kiko) - 缓慢西行,移入中太 - NHC:115KT

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发表于 2019-9-24 10:44 | 显示全部楼层
本帖最后由 炎煌深沉 于 2019-9-24 12:00 编辑

WTPZ43 KNHC 240239
TCDEP3

Tropical Storm Kiko Discussion Number  47
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       EP132019
500 PM HST Mon Sep 23 2019

Earlier this afternoon, infrared satellite imagery showed the
initial presence of an eye developing.  Since that time, the
gradient of the convection has become sharp over the southwestern
semicircle, with that cirrus clouds now covering the eye-like
feature.  This suggests that the anticipated southerly shear over
the cyclone could be beginning.  The initial intensity remains at 50
kt, and this is based off a combination of the available subjective
and objective intensity estimates.

Kiko is moving northwestward at 10 kt.  There is no change to the
forecast track philosophy.  Kiko is expected to turn to the
northwest tonight, and that motion should continue through Tuesday
in the flow between a mid-level ridge to the northeast and a mid- to
upper-level low to its west.  By Wednesday, Kiko is expected to turn
back to the west as the shallower system is steered by the the
low-level trade winds.  Based on the current forecast track, Kiko is
expected to enter the central Pacific basin by tomorrow night.

Since it now appears that the shear is beginning to occur over
the storm, the forecast no longer calls for any additional
strengthening.  The southerly shear is expected to increase much
more tomorrow, and the system should begin to entrain dry and stable
marine air to its west. This is expected to cause a weakening trend
to begin, and by Wednesday, Kiko is expected to become a tropical
depression, and it will likely become a remnant low shortly
thereafter.  Other than removing the near term intensification, the
official forecast is essentially an update of the previous one.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT  24/0300Z 17.0N 137.5W   50 KT  60 MPH
12H  24/1200Z 18.0N 138.6W   50 KT  60 MPH
24H  25/0000Z 19.1N 140.0W   40 KT  45 MPH
36H  25/1200Z 19.7N 141.3W   35 KT  40 MPH
48H  26/0000Z 19.8N 142.4W   30 KT  35 MPH
72H  27/0000Z 19.5N 145.0W   25 KT  30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
96H  28/0000Z 19.5N 146.3W   25 KT  30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
120H  29/0000Z...DISSIPATED

$$
Forecaster Latto
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 楼主| 发表于 2019-9-24 12:38 | 显示全部楼层
全球热带气旋监测报告
预报:吕爱民  签发:梁 健   2019 年  09 月  24 日  10 时
“基科”将向西北方向移动
东北太平洋热带风暴“基科”(KIKO)的中心今天(24日)上午8点钟(北京时,下同)位于夏威夷希洛(HILO HAWAII)偏东方向约1950公里的东北太平洋洋面上,就是北纬16.6度、西经137.2度,中心附近最大风力有10级(25米/秒,相当于我国的强热带风暴级),中心最低气压为1000百帕。

预计,“基科”将以每小10-15公里的速度向西北方向移动,强度先加强后减弱。

SEVP_NMC_TCMO_SFER_EME_AGLB_L89_P9_20190924020002400_XML_1.png
卫星红外监测图像

(北京时间2019年9月24日08时00分)


“杰里”将向北偏西方向移动

北大西洋热带风暴“杰里”(JERRY)的中心今天(24日)上午8点钟位于百慕大(BERMUDA)西南方向约530公里的北大西洋洋面上,就是北纬28.7度、西经68.3度,中心附近最大风力有10级(28米/秒,相当于我国的强热带风暴级),中心最低气压为991百帕。

预计,“杰里”将以每小时5-10公里的速度向北偏西方向移动,强度将逐渐减弱。


卫星红外监测图像

(北京时间2019年9月24日08时00分)

“卡伦”减弱为热带低压

北大西洋热带风暴“卡伦”(KAREN)已于今天(24日)凌晨减弱为热带低压,上午8点钟其中心位于波多黎各圣胡安(SAN JUAN PUERTO RICO)偏南方向约290公里的北大西洋洋面上,就是北纬15.8度、西经65.7度,中心附近最大风力有7级(15米/秒,相当于我国的热带低压级),中心最低气压为1008百帕。

预计,“卡伦”将以每小时15-20公里的速度向西北方向移动,强度继续减弱。

(这是关于“卡伦”的最后一期监测公报)

北大西洋热带风暴“洛伦佐”生成

北大西洋热带风暴“洛伦佐”(LORENZO)已于昨天(23日)晚上生成,今天(24日)上午8点钟其中心位于佛得角群岛最南端(THE SOUTHERNMOST CABO VERDE ISLANDS)西南方向约435公里的北大西洋洋面上,就是北纬11.4度、西经26.2度,中心附近最大风力有8级(20米/秒,相当于我国的热带风暴级),中心最低气压为1002百帕。

预计,“杰里”将以每小时25公里左右的速度向偏西方向移动,强度将逐渐加强。


(北京时间2019年9月24日08时00分)
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 楼主| 发表于 2019-9-24 16:44 | 显示全部楼层
本帖最后由 1007圆规 于 2019-9-24 21:22 编辑

WTPZ43 KNHC 240842
TCDEP3

Tropical Storm Kiko Discussion Number  48
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       EP132019
1100 PM HST Mon Sep 23 2019

Satellite and microwave data indicate that the center of Kiko is
no longer in the middle of the central dense overcast. Instead,
increasing shear has caused the low-level center to be displaced to
the southwestern edge of the deep convection.  Intensity estimates
are decreasing, and the initial wind speed is set to 45 kt, which
agrees best with recent 40-45 kt ASCAT data.

Kiko is moving northwestward at 9 kt.  The storm is expected to turn
to the west-northwest on Tuesday in the flow between a mid-level
ridge to the northeast and a mid- to upper-level low to the west. By
Wednesday, Kiko is expected to turn back to the west and eventually
south-of-west as the shallower system is steered by the low-level
trade winds. The new track forecast is similar to the previous one,
except adjusted southward on days 2-3.

The storm should continue to weaken over the next few days due to
persistent south-southwest shear, marginal water temperatures, and
a dry mid-level environment.  Guidance tonight has accelerated the
transition into a non-convective remnant low, with everything now
showing post-tropical status by 48 hours.  The new forecast is
lower than the previous one, following the trend in the models, and
could be too slow in showing the storm's demise.  Still, Kiko has
been one for the record books and should enter the top 10 in
longest-lived eastern Pacific tropical cyclones by midday Tuesday.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT  24/0900Z 17.5N 138.2W   45 KT  50 MPH
12H  24/1800Z 18.5N 139.3W   35 KT  40 MPH
24H  25/0600Z 19.4N 140.8W   30 KT  35 MPH
36H  25/1800Z 19.7N 142.1W   25 KT  30 MPH
48H  26/0600Z 19.5N 143.1W   20 KT  25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
72H  27/0600Z 18.5N 145.5W   15 KT  15 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
96H  28/0600Z...DISSIPATED

$$
Forecaster Blake
084352_5day_cone_with_line_and_wind.png ep1319 (1).gif 13E_240600sair.jpg
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 楼主| 发表于 2019-9-24 17:21 | 显示全部楼层
本帖最后由 1007圆规 于 2019-9-24 17:29 编辑

全球热带气旋监测报告
预报:吕爱民  签发:梁健   2019 年  09 月  24 日  18 时
“基科”将向西北方向移动
东北太平洋热带风暴“基科”(KIKO)的中心今天(24日)下午2点钟(北京时,下同)位于夏威夷希洛(HILO HAWAII)偏东方向约1800公里的东北太平洋洋面上,就是北纬17.2度、西经137.8度,中心附近最大风力有9级(23米/秒,相当于我国的热带风暴级),中心最低气压为1002百帕。

预计,“基科”将以每小15-20公里的速度向西北方向移动,强度将逐渐减弱。

SEVP_NMC_TCMO_SFER_EME_AGLB_L89_P9_20190924100002400_XML_1.gif
卫星红外监测图像

(北京时间2019年9月24日14时00分)


“杰里”将向偏北方向移动

北大西洋热带风暴“杰里”(JERRY)的中心今天(24日)下午2点钟位于百慕大(BERMUDA)西南方向约465公里的北大西洋洋面上,就是北纬29.5度、西经68.4度,中心附近最大风力有10级(25米/秒,相当于我国的强热带风暴级),中心最低气压为993百帕。

预计,“杰里”将以每小时10公里左右的速度向偏北方向移动,强度将逐渐减弱。


卫星红外监测图像

(北京时间2019年9月24日14时00分)

“洛伦佐”将向偏西方向移动

北大西洋热带风暴“洛伦佐”(LORENZO)的中心今天(24日)下午2点钟位于佛得角群岛最南端(THE SOUTHERNMOST CABO VERDE ISLANDS)西南方向约460公里的北大西洋洋面上,就是北纬11.8度、西经27.3度,中心附近最大风力有10级(28米/秒,相当于我国的强热带风暴级),中心最低气压为998百帕。

预计,“杰里”将以每小时25公里左右的速度向偏西方向移动,强度将逐渐加强。


(北京时间2019年9月24日14时00分)
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发表于 2019-9-25 01:51 | 显示全部楼层
本帖最后由 红豆棒冰冰 于 2019-9-25 01:56 编辑

000
WTPZ43 KNHC 241454
TCDEP3

Tropical Storm Kiko Discussion Number  49
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       EP132019
500 AM HST Tue Sep 24 2019

Forty to forty-five knots of south-southwesterly shear has caused
Kiko's convection to become displaced from the low-level center by
about 70 n mi.  A blend of final-T and CI numbers from TAFB and
SAB, as well as the latest ADT, supports lowering the initial
intensity to 40 kt.  The UW-CIMSS shear analysis indicates that
Kiko is heading for even stronger shear during the next 6-12 hours,
which should lead to further degradation in the cyclone's
structure and a quick decrease in its maximum winds.  The GFS and
ECMWF simulated infrared satellite fields suggest that all deep
convection could dissipate by 24 hours, and as a result, the time of
Kiko's degeneration into a remnant low has been moved up to 36 hours
in the official forecast.  Dissipation is expected by day 4.

Kiko's initial motion is northwestward, or 310/9 kt.  The cyclone
is moving between a mid-/upper-level low to its west and mid-level
ridging to its northeast.  However, once it loses its deep
convection and becomes a shallow vortex, Kiko is expected to turn
westward (by 36 hours) and then west-southwestward (by 48 hours).
Only minor adjustments to the NHC track forecast were required, and
on the forecast track, Kiko should cross 140W into the central
Pacific basin later this afternoon.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT  24/1500Z 17.9N 138.9W   40 KT  45 MPH
12H  25/0000Z 18.7N 140.1W   30 KT  35 MPH
24H  25/1200Z 19.4N 141.4W   25 KT  30 MPH
36H  26/0000Z 19.4N 142.6W   20 KT  25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
48H  26/1200Z 19.0N 143.7W   20 KT  25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
72H  27/1200Z 18.3N 146.2W   15 KT  15 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
96H  28/1200Z...DISSIPATED

$$
Forecaster Berg
145622_5day_cone_with_line_and_wind.png
ep1319.gif
13E_241200sair.jpg
惟愿公平如滚滚流水,而正义则像永不止息的溪流。
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发表于 2019-9-25 04:54 | 显示全部楼层
本帖最后由 炎煌深沉 于 2019-9-25 05:16 编辑

WTPZ43 KNHC 242051
TCDEP3

Tropical Storm Kiko Discussion Number  50
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL     EP132019
Issued by NWS Central Pacific Hurricane Center Honolulu HI
1100 AM HST Tue Sep 24 2019

Kiko is now a swirl of low clouds devoid of deep convection in the
face of 40 kt of southwest shear as analyzed by UW-CIMSS. The
initial intensity was lowered to 35 kt, though ADT and ASCAT passes
just coming in suggest this may be a bit generous. Strong southwest
shear is expected to continue to prevent the development of
persistent deep convection through the forecast period. This will
allow the low-level center to turn westward, and then southwestward
following the trade wind flow and weaken. The current forecast lies
very close to the previous one. Without deep convection, Kiko's wind
field should continue to steadily spin down.

Kiko will be moving into the central Pacific basin this afternoon
and subsequent advisories will be issued by the Central Pacific
Hurricane Center. Products will continue to be available on the web
at hurricanes.gov.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT  24/2100Z 18.0N 139.6W   35 KT  40 MPH
12H  25/0600Z 18.5N 140.7W   30 KT  35 MPH
24H  25/1800Z 18.9N 142.0W   25 KT  30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
36H  26/0600Z 18.8N 143.2W   20 KT  25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
48H  26/1800Z 18.5N 144.3W   20 KT  25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
72H  27/1800Z...DISSIPATED

$$
Forecaster R Ballard
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发表于 2019-9-25 10:40 | 显示全部楼层
本帖最后由 炎煌深沉 于 2019-10-9 19:20 编辑

WTPA44 PHFO 250237
TCDCP4

Post-Tropical Cyclone Kiko Discussion Number  51
NWS Central Pacific Hurricane Center Honolulu HI   EP132019
500 PM HST Tue Sep 24 2019

The low level center of Kiko has been fully exposed all day
without any nearby deep convection. Southwesterly vertical shear of
40 to 50 kt, as indicated by UW-CIMSS analysis, along with marginal
sea surface temperatures will do that to a tropical cyclone. Today's
ASCAT-A/B/C scatterometer passes all showed winds less than 35 kt so
Kiko was downgraded to a tropical depression in the Tropical Cyclone
Update issued earlier this afternoon. The Dvorak intensity estimates
came in at 35 kt from PHFO (held up by constraints), and 30 kt from
SAB. The UW/CIMSS ADT value was 25 kt at 25/0000 UTC. Based on a
blend of these data, and the expectation that vertical shear will
remain strong over the system, Kiko will be designated a
post-tropical remnant low with an intensity of 30 kt.

The center of Kiko has been moving at 325/13 kt within the shallow
layer steering flow. This is a bit to the right of the previous
advisory with a faster speed. The movement of the remnant
low is expected to gradually become westward, then southwestward, as
it spins down and moves within the trade wind flow. The main
dynamical objective aids are in agreement with this scenario. The
forecast track has been adjusted north due to the initial motion and
is close to the HCCA guidance. Dissipation of what's left of Kiko
should occur in the next 3 days.

This is the last advisory issued by the Central Pacific Hurricane
Center on Kiko. Additional information on this system can be found
in the High Seas Forecasts issued by the National Weather Service in
Honolulu under AWIPS header HFOHSFNP and WMO header FZPN40 PHFO.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT  25/0300Z 19.2N 140.5W   30 KT  35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
12H  25/1200Z 19.5N 141.4W   25 KT  30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
24H  26/0000Z 19.6N 142.7W   25 KT  30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
36H  26/1200Z 19.1N 144.0W   20 KT  25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
48H  27/0000Z 18.5N 145.2W   20 KT  25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
72H  28/0000Z...DISSIPATED

$$
Forecaster Kodama
POST-TC 13E.PNG
ep1319.gif
13E_250000sair.jpg
全球热带气旋监测报告
预报:吕爱民  签发:梁健   2019 年  09 月  25 日  10 时
“基科”减弱为热带低压

东北太平洋热带风暴“基科”(KIKO)已于今天(25日)上午移入中北太平洋,并减弱为热带低压,上午8点钟(北京时,下同)其中心位于夏威夷希洛(HILO HAWAII)偏东方向约1600公里的洋面上,就是北纬18.7度、西经140.1度,中心附近最大风力有6级(12米/秒,相当于我国的热带低压级),中心最低气压为1010百帕。

预计,“基科”将以每小15-20公里的速度向西北方向移动,强度将继续减弱。

(这是关于“基科”的最后一期监测公报)
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