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[2019] 东太平洋四级飓风“基可”(13E.Kiko) - 缓慢西行,移入中太 - NHC:115KT

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发表于 2019-9-12 19:55 | 显示全部楼层

NHC:100%/100%

本帖最后由 炎煌深沉 于 2019-9-12 20:08 编辑

1. Showers and thunderstorms have become more concentrated and better
organized this morning around an area of low pressure located about
500 miles south of the southern tip of the Baja California
peninsula, and a tropical depression appears to be forming.  If this
trend continues, advisories will be initiated later this morning or
afternoon while the system moves west-northwestward at about 10 mph.
For additional information on this system, please refer to High Seas
Forecasts issued by the National Weather Service.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...high...near 100 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...high...near 100 percent.
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发表于 2019-9-12 22:18 | 显示全部楼层

升格13E

本帖最后由 炎煌深沉 于 2019-9-12 23:00 编辑

EP, 13, 2019091212,   , BEST,   0, 157N, 1106W,  30, 1006, TD,  34, NEQ,    0,    0,    0,    0, 1009,  180,  90,  40,   0,   E,   0,    ,   0,   0,   THIRTEEN, M,  0,    ,    0,    0,    0,    0, genesis-num, 029, TRANSITIONED, epB02019 to ep132019,
4F312C5A-6E89-418D-BC2B-06DD86CCF0BA.jpeg
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发表于 2019-9-12 22:53 | 显示全部楼层

NHC issuing advisories for the Eastern Pacific on TD Thirteen-E

本帖最后由 炎煌深沉 于 2019-9-13 04:51 编辑

WTPZ43 KNHC 121452
TCDEP3

Tropical Depression Thirteen-E Discussion Number   1
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       EP132019
Issued by the NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
900 AM MDT Thu Sep 12 2019

An overnight scatterometer pass depicted an elongated circulation
associated with this disturbance. Recent satellite imagery suggest
the system has likely become better organized since the
scatterometer, as can be seen in better defined curved banding
features. Thus all indications are that a tropical depression has
developed, with an initial intensity estimate of 30 kt derived from
TAFB/SAB fixes.

The depression has an initial motion off to the west-northwest
around 11 kt. There is good agreement on the track over the next
couple of days, with the system continuing a west to west-northwest
movement to the south of a mid-level ridge situated over Mexico into
the eastern Pacific. A bit more uncertainty develops by early next
week with regards to how the system potentially interacts with a
weakness in the ridge. While the track is of less confidence by this
time, what does appear more certain is that the system should move
more slowly. The NHC forecast track generally stays close to the
model consensus.

Tropical Depression Thirteen is expected to remain within a
favorable environment for intensification over the next several
days, with minimal shear and SSTs between 27-29 deg C. Model
guidance is in good agreement that the system should become a
tropical storm within a day, and a hurricane over the weekend.
There is some chance we see a more rapid intensification of the
cyclone during the next few days, with respectable rapid
intensification probabilities noted in the SHIPS guidance. For
now, since it is unknown how much of an inner core will develop,
the forecast will be a bit more conservative, but above the model
consensus intensity. Some weakening is expected by early next week
as the system moves over cooler waters.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT  12/1500Z 15.9N 111.1W   30 KT  35 MPH
12H  13/0000Z 16.3N 112.8W   35 KT  40 MPH
24H  13/1200Z 16.5N 114.8W   40 KT  45 MPH
36H  14/0000Z 16.7N 116.7W   50 KT  60 MPH
48H  14/1200Z 17.0N 118.4W   60 KT  70 MPH
72H  15/1200Z 17.9N 122.0W   75 KT  85 MPH
96H  16/1200Z 18.8N 124.8W   65 KT  75 MPH
120H  17/1200Z 19.5N 126.0W   50 KT  60 MPH

$$
Forecaster Chenard/Blake
618F0925-FE3D-4414-91E1-91B9F8331EF0.png
3B1B8319-3465-430C-9A2E-65693987D57B.gif
7FA30A75-0113-4EBE-8C0F-F70AC7D1D0AE.jpeg
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发表于 2019-9-12 22:53 | 显示全部楼层

数值预报支持较高强度

本帖最后由 renzhetegong 于 2019-9-12 23:18 编辑

ecmwf_z500_mslp_epac_6.png
gfs_mslp_wind_epac_12.png gfs-legacy_mslp_wind_epac_12.png

hwrf_mslp_wind_90E_27.png hwrf_satIR_90E_14.png hmon_mslp_wind_90E_32.png

2019EP90_DIAGPLOT_201909121200.png 13E_intensity_latest.png 13E_tracks_latest.png
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发表于 2019-9-13 04:45 | 显示全部楼层

NHC issuing advisories for the Eastern Pacific on TS Kiko

本帖最后由 炎煌深沉 于 2019-9-13 07:10 编辑

WTPZ43 KNHC 122044
TCDEP3

Tropical Storm Kiko Discussion Number   2
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       EP132019
Issued by the NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
300 PM MDT Thu Sep 12 2019

A recent scatterometer pass depicted a better defined circulation
and wind speeds of 30-35 kt northwest of the center of the system.
Based on this data and recent satellite imagery continuing to show
increased curved banding features, we have decided to upgrade the
system to Tropical Storm Kiko with an intensity of 35 kt.

The system is moving to the west-northwest around 10 kt. There is
good agreement on the track over the next couple of days, with the
system continuing a west to west-northwest movement to the south of
a mid-level ridge situated over Mexico into the eastern Pacific.
There is a small northward shift in most of the guidance and
consensus solutions at longer range, and thus the forecast is
adjusted in this direction, although it remains south of model
consensus.  The model trend has been to keep the system moving
faster than our previous forecast, and thus the new forecast has
been sped up to become more in line with current consensus
solutions.

Kiko is expected to remain within a favorable environment for
intensification over the next several days, with minimal shear and
SSTs between 27-29 deg C. The system is thus still on track to
become a hurricane this weekend. There remains some chance we see a
more rapid intensification of the cyclone during the next few days,
with higher rapid intensification probabilities noted in the
SHIPS guidance than 6h ago. For now, since it is still unknown how
much of an inner core will develop, the forecast will be a bit
conservative, but remains above the model consensus intensity. Some
weakening is expected by early next week as the system moves over
cooler waters.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT  12/2100Z 16.1N 112.2W   35 KT  40 MPH
12H  13/0600Z 16.3N 113.7W   40 KT  45 MPH
24H  13/1800Z 16.6N 115.6W   50 KT  60 MPH
36H  14/0600Z 17.1N 117.4W   60 KT  70 MPH
48H  14/1800Z 17.6N 119.1W   70 KT  80 MPH
72H  15/1800Z 18.5N 122.7W   75 KT  85 MPH
96H  16/1800Z 19.3N 125.7W   60 KT  70 MPH
120H  17/1800Z 20.0N 128.0W   50 KT  60 MPH

$$
Forecaster Chenard/Blake
FE959B6C-AF68-4804-8205-9A34A038EC78.png
ep1319.gif
13E_121800sair.jpg
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发表于 2019-9-13 10:40 | 显示全部楼层
本帖最后由 炎煌深沉 于 2019-9-13 11:08 编辑

WTPZ43 KNHC 130240
TCDEP3

Tropical Storm Kiko Discussion Number   3
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       EP132019
900 PM MDT Thu Sep 12 2019

A pair of recent microwave overpasses (AMSR-2 at 2055 UTC and SSMIS
at 0020 UTC) revealed that Kiko has not become any better organized
since this afternoon. Thunderstorm activity is somewhat limited near
the center of the tropical cyclone, though this is likely related to
diurnal variations in convection, and convection will probably
increase again overnight. Subjective and objective intensity
estimates range from 30 to 40 kt, so the intensity has been
maintained at 35 kt, as a compromise of the various methods.

Despite its short-term lack of organization, Kiko will likely
strengthen during the next 2 or 3 days. It is located within an
environment consisting of low shear, sufficient moisture, and warm
SSTs. All of the intensity guidance calls for strengthening, and the
only difference between the models is the rate at which Kiko will
intensify. The NHC forecast has not been substantially changed and
still calls for Kiko to become a hurricane over the weekend. It is
also near the high side of the intensity model envelope, especially
between 24 and 72 h. By 72 h, the cyclone should reach cooler waters
and begin to encounter drier air. Weakening will likely begin
around that time and continue into mid-week.

Kiko's center appears to have jumped slightly to the north, or
perhaps even re-formed, but a 12-h estimate yields an initial motion
of 300/9 kt. The models remain in very good agreement that the
tropical storm will move generally westward to west-northwestward
throughout the forecast period, steered primarily by a mid-layer
ridge centered over the southwestern U.S. The NHC track forecast
has been adjusted northward, mainly due to the farther north
initial position of Kiko, and closely follows the HCCA and TVCE
aids.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT  13/0300Z 16.6N 112.7W   35 KT  40 MPH
12H  13/1200Z 16.9N 114.0W   40 KT  45 MPH
24H  14/0000Z 17.3N 115.7W   50 KT  60 MPH
36H  14/1200Z 17.9N 117.5W   65 KT  75 MPH
48H  15/0000Z 18.4N 119.3W   70 KT  80 MPH
72H  16/0000Z 19.5N 122.9W   70 KT  80 MPH
96H  17/0000Z 20.5N 125.5W   50 KT  60 MPH
120H  18/0000Z 21.0N 128.0W   40 KT  45 MPH

$$
Forecaster Zelinsky
024058_5day_cone_with_line_and_wind.png
ep1319.gif
13E_130000sair.jpg
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 楼主| 发表于 2019-9-13 15:44 | 显示全部楼层
本帖最后由 1007圆规 于 2019-9-13 15:52 编辑

全球热带气旋监测报告
预报:吕爱民  签发:许映龙  2019 年 09 月 13 日 10 时
“基科”在东北太平洋洋面上生成
东北太平洋热带风暴“基科”(KIKO)已于今天(13日)早晨在东北太平洋洋面上生成,上午8点钟(北京时,下同)其中心位于墨西哥南下加利福尼亚州圣卢卡斯角(THE SOUTHERN TIP OF BAJA CALIFORNIA)南偏西方向约770公里的东北太平洋洋面上,就是北纬16.4度、西经112.2度,中心附近最大风力有8级(18米/秒,相当于我国的热带风暴级),中心最低气压为1004百帕。
预计,“基科”将以每小时15-20公里的速度向西偏北方向移动,强度将逐渐加强。
IMG_3272.GIF
卫星红外监测图像
(北京时间2019年9月13日08时00分)
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发表于 2019-9-13 15:45 | 显示全部楼层
全球热带气旋监测报告
预报:吕爱民  签发:许映龙   2019 年  09 月  13 日  18 时
“基科”将向西偏北方向移动
东北太平洋热带风暴“基科”(KIKO)的中心今天(13日)下午2点钟(北京时,下同)位于墨西哥南下加利福尼亚州圣卢卡斯角(THE SOUTHERN TIP OF BAJA CALIFORNIA)南偏西方向约750公里的东北太平洋洋面上,就是北纬16.7度、西经113.1度,中心附近最大风力有8级(18米/秒,相当于我国的热带风暴级),中心最低气压为1004百帕。

预计,“基科”将以每小时15-20公里的速度向西偏北方向移动,强度将逐渐加强。
SEVP_NMC_TCMO_SFER_EME_AGLB_L89_P9_20190913100002400_XML_1.gif
卫星红外监测图像
(北京时间2019年9月13日14时00分)
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 楼主| 发表于 2019-9-13 15:45 | 显示全部楼层
本帖最后由 1007圆规 于 2019-9-13 15:59 编辑

根据数值预报未来强度可期
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发表于 2019-9-13 16:52 | 显示全部楼层
本帖最后由 炎煌深沉 于 2019-9-13 18:38 编辑

WTPZ43 KNHC 130852
TCDEP3

Tropical Storm Kiko Discussion Number   4
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       EP132019
300 AM MDT Fri Sep 13 2019

Kiko's convective pattern has still not gotten any better
organized.  There's a small patch of convection near the estimated
center, with another larger cluster much farther south.  For the
most part, however, the circulation consists of a broken low- and
mid-level cloud deck with a few embedded showers.  Subjective Dvorak
estimates from TAFB and SAB are T2.0/30 kt, while objective numbers
are only slightly higher.  The initial intensity is being held at 35
kt, but it's entirely possible that Kiko may not be producing
tropical-storm-force winds at this time.

The GOES-17 air mass product shows that Kiko is surrounded by some
of the driest air over the entire tropical eastern Pacific, which
could be contributing to the system's convective struggles.  And
going forward, it appears that the thermodynamic environment could
be less than ideal for significant strengthening, with SHIPS model
diagnostics showing environmental stability to be the biggest
negative factor.  That being said, vertical shear is expected to be
less than 10 kt for at least the next 3 days, so strengthening is
likely if the dry air can be mixed out of the circulation.  The new
NHC forecast continues to show Kiko reaching hurricane strength in
about 48 hours, although the peak intensity has been tempered a bit
based on the latest guidance.  The official forecast is close to a
blend of the Florida State Superensemble and the HFIP Corrected
Consensus aids.

Kiko is moving west-northwestward, or 295/9 kt, to the south of a
mid-level ridge which extends along the U.S./Mexico border.  This
motion should continue for the next 3 days, and the track models
are in good agreement on this solution.  After day 3, there is
a bifurcation of the models, with the GFS, HMON, COAMPS-TC, and
Canadian turning Kiko northwestward or northward into a break in
the ridge, and the ECMWF, UKMET, HWRF, and the consensus aids
maintaining a west-northwestward or even westward heading on days 4
and 5.  Due to this divergence, the updated forecast shows a
slightly slower motion toward the end of the forecast period, but
the track itself is very similar to the previous forecast, lying
near the northern boundary of the southern camp of models.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT  13/0900Z 16.8N 113.5W   35 KT  40 MPH
12H  13/1800Z 17.1N 114.9W   40 KT  45 MPH
24H  14/0600Z 17.5N 116.6W   50 KT  60 MPH
36H  14/1800Z 17.9N 118.3W   60 KT  70 MPH
48H  15/0600Z 18.4N 120.0W   65 KT  75 MPH
72H  16/0600Z 19.4N 123.1W   65 KT  75 MPH
96H  17/0600Z 20.5N 125.5W   45 KT  50 MPH
120H  18/0600Z 21.0N 127.5W   35 KT  40 MPH

$$
Forecaster Berg
090002_5day_cone_with_line_and_wind.png
ep1319.gif
13E_130600sair.jpg
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