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[2019] 东太平洋四级飓风“基可”(13E.Kiko) - 缓慢西行,移入中太 - NHC:115KT

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强台风

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发表于 2019-9-13 23:02 | 显示全部楼层
本帖最后由 2018.26W 于 2019-9-13 23:04 编辑

000
WTPZ43 KNHC 131457
TCDEP3

Tropical Storm Kiko Discussion Number   5
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       EP132019
Issued by the NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
900 AM MDT Fri Sep 13 2019

Kiko's convective pattern is still poorly organized.  There was
only a burst of convection near the estimated center overnight, and
a new one is in progress. The circulation still consists of a broken
low- and mid-level cloud deck with widely scattered embedded
convection.  Subjective Dvorak estimates from TAFB and SAB are
T2.0/30 kt, while the objective estimate is near 40 kt. The initial
intensity remains at 35 kt as a blend of the subjective and
objective estimates.

Kiko is surrounded by dry air which is probably contributing to
the system's continued convective struggles.  Going forward, a low
shear and warm water environment with limited environmental
instability looks to allow a gradual increase in intensity. The new
NHC forecast shows Kiko just shy of hurricane strength in
about 48 hours, which is in good agreement with the trend of the
model consensus.

Kiko is moving west-northwestward, or 285/9 kt, to the south of a
mid-level ridge which extends along the U.S./Mexico border.  This
motion should continue for the next 3 days, and the track models
are in good agreement on this solution.  After day 3, some
bifurcation of the models remain, though there are more models
supporting a west to northwest track than to the north. The only
substantial change to the previous forecast is a slightly slower
speed in Days 4 and 5, and the forecast will stay closer to the
models that support a continued west-northwest track at long range.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT  13/1500Z 16.9N 114.4W   35 KT  40 MPH
12H  14/0000Z 17.2N 115.8W   40 KT  45 MPH
24H  14/1200Z 17.6N 117.4W   50 KT  60 MPH
36H  15/0000Z 18.0N 119.0W   55 KT  65 MPH
48H  15/1200Z 18.5N 120.6W   60 KT  70 MPH
72H  16/1200Z 19.5N 123.5W   55 KT  65 MPH
96H  17/1200Z 20.2N 126.1W   40 KT  45 MPH
120H  18/1200Z 21.0N 128.5W   30 KT  35 MPH

$$
Forecaster Bann/Jackson/Otto/Blake
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发表于 2019-9-13 23:10 | 显示全部楼层
乾空氣成為發展的障礙之一,持續調弱至不上望Cat.1
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发表于 2019-9-14 07:18 | 显示全部楼层
000
WTPZ43 KNHC 132043
TCDEP3

Tropical Storm Kiko Discussion Number   6
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       EP132019
200 PM PDT Fri Sep 13 2019

Kiko has been battling some entrained dry air today, and convection
is just now beginning to re-wrap around the center of circulation.
The latest subjective Dvorak intensity estimate from SAB supports an
initial advisory intensity of 35 kt.  An upper trough to the west of
Kiko may continue to force dry air into the cyclone's circulation in
the near term. Despite this dry air, the cyclone is expected to
remain over warm waters and in a low shear environment for the next
couple of days, which should allow for some strengthening. By late
this weekend, Kiko is expected to be near hurricane intensity.
After 48 hours, Kiko is forecast to begin to move over cooler
waters, and after 72 hours, westerly wind shear is expected to begin
to impact the cyclone. These factors should cause Kiko to steadily
weaken late in the forecast period.

Kiko is moving westward, or 280/8 kt, to the south of a broad
mid-level ridge.  A general west to west-northwestward motion
should continue for the next several days. There was a notable
shift in the guidance this afternoon, suggesting that the cyclone
will move with a little slower forward motion than previously
indicated. The tightly clustered consensus guidance also made a
slight shift to the west. The official forecast is a little slower
and to the left than the previous one, but is on the right side of
the consensus aids.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT  13/2100Z 17.0N 115.2W   35 KT  40 MPH
12H  14/0600Z 17.2N 116.5W   40 KT  45 MPH
24H  14/1800Z 17.5N 118.0W   50 KT  60 MPH
36H  15/0600Z 17.9N 119.4W   55 KT  65 MPH
48H  15/1800Z 18.4N 121.0W   60 KT  70 MPH
72H  16/1800Z 19.4N 123.8W   55 KT  65 MPH
96H  17/1800Z 20.1N 126.1W   40 KT  45 MPH
120H  18/1800Z 20.9N 128.5W   30 KT  35 MPH

$$
Forecaster Latto
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发表于 2019-9-14 07:44 | 显示全部楼层
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发表于 2019-9-14 10:42 | 显示全部楼层
本帖最后由 炎煌深沉 于 2019-9-14 12:40 编辑

WTPZ43 KNHC 140241
TCDEP3

Tropical Storm Kiko Discussion Number   7
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       EP132019
800 PM PDT Fri Sep 13 2019

Kiko may have finally kicked the dry air out of its inner core.
There has been a dramatic expansion of cold cloud tops extending
from the center of the cyclone, and recent microwave imagery
confirms that convective activity is much greater than it was 24 h
ago. Dvorak intensity estimates from TAFB and SAB have gone up and
now support an initial intensity of 45 kt. This value is fairly
uncertain, and it certainly possible that Kiko has not strengthened
quite that much at this point.

It has been very difficult to identify the low-level center of Kiko,
and the initial motion is a very uncertain 285/8 kt. In the short
term, the initial position may actually be the main source of
uncertainty in the forecast. The cyclone should head westward or
west-northwestward at about the same forward speed for the next
couple of days, and the guidance is very tightly clustered.
Beginning Monday, Kiko could turn west-northwestward or
northwestward if it substantially deepens, as shown by the GFS,
HWRF, and HMON models, or it could just accelerate generally
westward, as depicted by the ECMWF and UKMET models. The spread
grows quite quickly by the end of the forecast period, and the GFS
and ECMWF are nearly 500 n mi apart by day 5. The NHC forecast
splits these 2 scenarios as a course of least regret, and follows
the multi-model consensus closely through the end of the period.

Despite its recent convective resurgence, there is still a fair
amount of dry air surrounding the cyclone. The environment appears
otherwise favorable for strengthening, and most of the guidance
calls for additional strengthening. The NHC intensity forecast has
been adjusted a little higher, given Kiko's current convective
structure, and once again shows Kiko becoming a hurricane in a
couple of days. Whatever peak the cyclone reaches, it will likely
begin to weaken by day 4 as it encounters cooler waters, drier air,
and potentially increased shear. The official intensity forecast is
near HCCA throughout the forecast period.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT  14/0300Z 17.1N 116.3W   45 KT  50 MPH
12H  14/1200Z 17.4N 117.4W   50 KT  60 MPH
24H  15/0000Z 17.6N 118.7W   55 KT  65 MPH
36H  15/1200Z 17.9N 120.1W   60 KT  70 MPH
48H  16/0000Z 18.5N 121.4W   65 KT  75 MPH
72H  17/0000Z 19.4N 124.2W   60 KT  70 MPH
96H  18/0000Z 20.2N 126.4W   40 KT  45 MPH
120H  19/0000Z 20.5N 128.5W   30 KT  35 MPH

$$
Forecaster Zelinsky
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发表于 2019-9-14 16:41 | 显示全部楼层
本帖最后由 炎煌深沉 于 2019-9-14 17:40 编辑

WTPZ43 KNHC 140839
TCDEP3

Tropical Storm Kiko Discussion Number   8
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       EP132019
200 AM PDT Sat Sep 14 2019

A 0205 UTC WindSat pass showed that Kiko's low-level structure has
become significantly better defined.  The storm has also been
producing a persistent cluster of deep convection, although
microwave fixes suggest that the surface center is located beneath
the eastern side of the convective mass.  Satellite intensity
estimates range from 45-55 kt, but scatterometer data from a few
hours ago indicated that maximum winds were between 40-45 kt.
Kiko's initial intensity is therefore held at 45 kt, but the
cyclone's improved structure likely means that its winds will
increase again soon.  There's still a swath of dry air to the north
and west of the storm, but now that the inner core has become more
established, Kiko should be able to take advantage of low shear and
sufficiently warm waters to strengthen during the next couple of
days.  The NHC intensity forecast is very close to the HFIP
Corrected Consensus (HCCA) and Florida State Superensemble (FSSE)
during the first 36 hours, showing a little more strengthening than
the previous forecast, and making Kiko a hurricane in 24 hours.
While the new forecast is also a little higher at 48 hours, it's
still below the HCCA, FSSE, and HWRF solutions, so additional
adjustment could be required in subsequent advisories.  Weakening
should commence by day 3 due to little to no oceanic heat content
and gradually increasing westerly shear.

Kiko is moving west-northwestward, or 285/8 kt.  Mid-level ridging
to the north should drive the cyclone on a westward to
west-northwestward heading for the entire forecast period.  The
most significant gain in latitude should occur from Sunday through
Tuesday when Kiko is at its strongest and responds to a break in
the ridge between 120W and 130W.  While the GFS and ECMWF models
still prefer northern and southern solutions within the guidance
envelope, respectively, the distance between the two at day 5 has
been cut in half in the latest model runs, suggesting that the track
uncertainty is not as high as it was previously.  The NHC track
forecast remains close to the various multi-model consensus aids.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT  14/0900Z 17.3N 117.1W   45 KT  50 MPH
12H  14/1800Z 17.4N 118.3W   55 KT  65 MPH
24H  15/0600Z 17.7N 119.7W   65 KT  75 MPH
36H  15/1800Z 18.1N 121.0W   70 KT  80 MPH
48H  16/0600Z 18.6N 122.3W   70 KT  80 MPH
72H  17/0600Z 19.5N 124.7W   55 KT  65 MPH
96H  18/0600Z 20.2N 126.9W   40 KT  45 MPH
120H  19/0600Z 20.6N 129.6W   30 KT  35 MPH

$$
Forecaster Berg
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 楼主| 发表于 2019-9-14 17:12 | 显示全部楼层
本帖最后由 1007圆规 于 2019-9-14 17:13 编辑

全球热带气旋监测报告
预报:赵伟  签发:许映龙   2019 年  09 月  14 日  18 时
“基科”将向西偏北方向移动
东北太平洋热带风暴“基科”(KIKO)的中心今天(14日)下午2点钟(北京时,下同)位于墨西哥南下加利福尼亚州圣卢卡斯角(THE SOUTHERN TIP OF BAJA CALIFORNIA)西南方向约930公里的东北太平洋洋面上,就是北纬17.3度、西经116.7度,中心附近最大风力有9级(23米/秒,相当于我国的热带风暴级),中心最低气压为1001百帕。
预计,“基科”将以每小时15-20公里的速度向西偏北方向移动,强度将逐渐加强。
IMG_3286.PNG
卫星红外监测图像
(北京时间2019年9月14日14时00分)

“温贝托”将向西北方向移动
北大西洋热带风暴“温贝托”(HUMBERTO)今天(14日)下午2点钟(北京时,下同)其中心位于巴哈马群岛伊柳塞拉岛(BAHAMA ISLANDS ELEUTHERA ISLAND)东北方向约95公里的北大西洋洋面上,就是北纬25.9度、西经75.7度,中心附近最大风力有8级(18米/秒,相当于我国的热带风暴级),中心最低气压为1007百帕。
预计,“温贝托”将以每小时10公里左右的速度向西北方向移动,强度将逐渐加强。

卫星红外监测图像
(北京时间2019年9月14日14时00分)
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发表于 2019-9-14 22:55 | 显示全部楼层
本帖最后由 炎煌深沉 于 2019-9-15 07:04 编辑

WTPZ43 KNHC 141455
TCDEP3

Tropical Storm Kiko Discussion Number   9
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       EP132019
800 AM PDT Sat Sep 14 2019

Kiko's cloud pattern has continued to quickly organize overnight
and this morning.  A couple of high-resolution microwave overpass
from several hours ago revealed significant banding around the
center, and that a banded eye had formed.  Dvorak intensity
estimates from TAFB and SAB at 1200 UTC were 55 kt, and the
UW/CIMSS ADT is now up to about 60 kt.  Based on the continued
increase in organization, the initial intensity has been raised to
60 kt.

Kiko is forecast to remain over warm water and in a low wind shear
environment during the next day or so.  This should allow for
additional intensification, and Kiko is expected to become a
hurricane later today.  The new NHC intensity forecast shows a
slightly higher peak intensity and is in best agreement with the
HFIP corrected consensus model, which is at the upper-end of
the guidance envelope.  By 72 hours, Kiko will be moving into
an area of increasing westerly shear and over slightly cooler
waters.  As a result, steady weakening is anticipated later in
forecast period.

The tropical storm is moving westward (280/9 kt) to the south of a
mid-level ridge that extends westward from northern Mexico.  The
track models still exhibit an usually large spread after 48 hours,
especially for a system in the eastern Pacific basin.  This appears
to be the result of the forecast vertical depth of Kiko and how
the cyclone responds to a developing weakness in the ridge.  The
GFS, GFS ensemble mean, and HWRF show a more northerly track, with a
stronger Kiko heading toward the break in the ridge.  Meanwhile, the
ECMWF and UKMET take a weaker Kiko on a more westerly heading.
Since the NHC forecast shows Kiko a stronger and vertically deep
system during the next couple of days, the track forecast lies a
little north of the consensus models.  After that time, Kiko is
likely to weaken and the official forecast shows a turn back toward
the west, as Kiko comes under the influence of the low-level
easterly flow.  As a result of the large model spread, the
confidence in the track forecast remains lower than normal.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT  14/1500Z 17.4N 118.3W   60 KT  70 MPH
12H  15/0000Z 17.6N 119.5W   70 KT  80 MPH
24H  15/1200Z 17.9N 120.9W   75 KT  85 MPH
36H  16/0000Z 18.3N 122.1W   75 KT  85 MPH
48H  16/1200Z 18.8N 123.3W   70 KT  80 MPH
72H  17/1200Z 19.6N 125.5W   55 KT  65 MPH
96H  18/1200Z 20.3N 128.0W   40 KT  45 MPH
120H  19/1200Z 20.7N 131.0W   30 KT  35 MPH

$$
Forecaster Brown
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发表于 2019-9-15 04:59 | 显示全部楼层
本帖最后由 炎煌深沉 于 2019-9-15 07:06 编辑

WTPZ43 KNHC 142036
TCDEP3

Hurricane Kiko Discussion Number  10
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       EP132019
200 PM PDT Sat Sep 14 2019

Kiko has continued to quickly strengthen today, with an eye becoming
apparent in geostationary and microwave satellite imagery.  The
latest subjective Dvorak intensity estimates from TAFB and SAB are
T4.5 (77 kt), and objective estimates from UW/CIMSS ADT and SATCON
are around 75 kt.  On this basis, the initial wind speed as been
raised to 75 kt for this advisory, and Kiko becomes the sixth
hurricane in the eastern Pacific basin this season.  Some
additional strengthening is possible during the next day or so
while Kiko remains over warm water and within low vertical wind
shear conditions.  After that time, slightly cooler waters and a
little increase in shear are likely to cause gradual weakening.  A
faster rate of filling is expected after 72 hours when Kiko is
forecast to encounter stronger westerly shear.  The new NHC
intensity forecast is near the upper end of the guidance, once
again in best agreement with the HFIP corrected consensus model.

Recent microwave fixes show that the center of Kiko is a little
south of the previous estimates, which results in a more westward
initial motion estimate of 270/10 kt.  Kiko is currently being
steered westward by a mid-level ridge that extends westward over
the eastern Pacific from northern Mexico.  The western portion of
the ridge is forecast to weaken over the next couple of days which
should cause Kiko to slow down and gain some latitude.  There
continues to be usually large spread in the track guidance, with
the spread over 400 n mi by day 5.  The latest trend in the
guidance is slower and farther southward after 48 hours, so the NHC
track has been adjusted in the direction.  The new track forecast
is not as slow as the lastest consensus models, so additional
adjustment may be required in future advisories.  In summary, the
confidence in the track forecast remains quite low.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT  14/2100Z 17.1N 119.3W   75 KT  85 MPH
12H  15/0600Z 17.2N 120.6W   85 KT 100 MPH
24H  15/1800Z 17.4N 122.0W   85 KT 100 MPH
36H  16/0600Z 17.7N 123.0W   80 KT  90 MPH
48H  16/1800Z 18.0N 123.8W   75 KT  85 MPH
72H  17/1800Z 18.7N 126.0W   55 KT  65 MPH
96H  18/1800Z 19.3N 128.0W   40 KT  45 MPH
120H  19/1800Z 20.0N 130.0W   30 KT  35 MPH

$$
Forecaster Brown
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发表于 2019-9-15 08:41 | 显示全部楼层

NHC:95KT

本帖最后由 炎煌深沉 于 2019-9-15 08:47 编辑

EP, 13, 2019091500,   , BEST,   0, 170N, 1197W,  95,  970, HU,

WTPZ63 KNHC 150030
TCUEP3

Hurricane Kiko Tropical Cyclone Update
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       EP132019
530 PM PDT Sat Sep 14 2019

...HURRICANE KIKO NEAR MAJOR HURRICANE STRENGTH...

Recent satellite-based intensity estimates indicate that Hurricane
Kiko has rapidly strengthened since the last advisory. The maximum
sustained winds have increased to 110 mph (175 km/h). The higher
intensity will be reflected in the next forecast advisory, which
will be issued before 800 PM PDT.


SUMMARY OF 530 PM AST...0030 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...17.0N 117.9W
ABOUT 760 MI...1225 KM WSW OF THE SOUTHERN TIP OF BAJA CALIFORNIA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...110 MPH...175 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...W OR 270 DEGREES AT 12 MPH...19 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...970 MB...28.64 INCHES

$$

Forecaster Zelinsky

WTPZ63 KNHC 150036 CCA
TCUEP3

Hurricane Kiko Tropical Cyclone Update...Corrected
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       EP132019
530 PM PDT Sat Sep 14 2019

Corrected location coordinates

...HURRICANE KIKO NEAR MAJOR HURRICANE STRENGTH...

Recent satellite-based intensity estimates indicate that Hurricane
Kiko has rapidly strengthened since the last advisory. The maximum
sustained winds have increased to 110 mph (175 km/h). The higher
intensity will be reflected in the next forecast advisory, which
will be issued before 800 PM PDT.


SUMMARY OF 530 PM AST...0030 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...17.0N 119.7W
ABOUT 760 MI...1225 KM WSW OF THE SOUTHERN TIP OF BAJA CALIFORNIA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...110 MPH...175 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...W OR 270 DEGREES AT 12 MPH...19 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...970 MB...28.64 INCHES

$$
Forecaster Zelinsky
20190914.2331.f16.91h.13E.KIKO.75kts.985mb.17.1N.119W.085pc.jpg
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