台风论坛

 找回密码
 立即注册
搜索
热搜: 台风
楼主: 1007圆规

[2019] 东太平洋四级飓风“基可”(13E.Kiko) - 缓慢西行,移入中太 - NHC:115KT

[复制链接]

116

主题

9313

帖子

3万

积分

论坛版主-副热带高压

Sing For You~

Rank: 7Rank: 7Rank: 7

积分
33119
发表于 2019-9-15 10:22 | 显示全部楼层
本帖最后由 炎煌深沉 于 2019-9-15 11:18 编辑

WTPZ43 KNHC 150216
TCDEP3

Hurricane Kiko Discussion Number  11
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       EP132019
800 PM PDT Sat Sep 14 2019

Kiko has undergone a remarkable intensification over the past 24
hours. The initial intensity for this advisory is 100 kt, 55 kt
higher than last night's estimate at the same time.
The hurricane
briefly developed a very clear eye earlier today, and although the
eye has become slightly obscured by an increase in eyewall
convection, it still has a very impressive satellite appearance.

The 100 kt intensity is based on a blend of recent subjective and
objective estimates that range from 90 to 105 kt.


There is no obvious reason why Kiko would stop strengthening in the
short term. The hurricane is clearly not being affected by any of
the dry air to its east, SSTs beneath the cyclone are warm, and the
shear is quite low. This should be the case for the next 36 h or
so, and Kiko is expected to at least maintain its current strength
through that period. Beyond that time, the intensity forecast is
quite complicated. Kiko will be moving nearly parallel to a strong
SST gradient. If the hurricane moves farther south than forecast,
it could maintain its strength for longer than indicated. But if it
moves farther north, it will likely weaken quickly. Kiko is also
forecast to slow down, and upwelling of colder water could also
become a factor in a few days, even if the hurricane stays on the
warm side of the SST gradient. The NHC forecast continues to show
gradual weakening beyond 36 h, but is on the high side of the
intensity guidance, most of which is tied to a forecast track north
of the latest NHC forecast.

The hurricane has slowed a little but is still moving west with a
motion of 270/8 kt. For the next couple of days a mid-level ridge
should keep Kiko moving generally westward at a similar forward
speed. Beyond that time, there is significant divergence between
the models. The GFS and regional hurricane models all show the
ridge weakening, allowing Kiko to turn northwestward. The ECMWF and
UKMET (as well as a clear majority of their ensembles) show no such
weakness forming and keep Kiko moving steadily westward through
mid-week. Unfortunately, no one solution appears superior at this
point, so the NHC forecast isn't fully following either group of
models. Instead it has been adjusted only modestly southward, and
remains close to the multi-model consensus. Needless to say,
confidence in the forecast is quite low.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT  15/0300Z 17.0N 120.1W  100 KT 115 MPH
12H  15/1200Z 17.0N 121.2W  110 KT 125 MPH
24H  16/0000Z 17.2N 122.4W  105 KT 120 MPH
36H  16/1200Z 17.6N 123.6W  100 KT 115 MPH
48H  17/0000Z 17.8N 124.5W   95 KT 110 MPH
72H  18/0000Z 18.2N 126.2W   80 KT  90 MPH
96H  19/0000Z 18.5N 128.0W   60 KT  70 MPH
120H  20/0000Z 18.5N 130.5W   45 KT  50 MPH

$$
Forecaster Zelinsky
021829_5day_cone_with_line_and_wind.png
ep1319.gif
13E_150000sair.jpg
20190915.0221.f17.91h.13E.KIKO.95kts.970mb.17N.119.7W.045pc.jpg
20190915.0221.f17.91pct91h91v.13E.KIKO.95kts.970mb.17N.119.7W.045pc.jpg
回复

使用道具 举报

86

主题

2444

帖子

7350

积分

强台风

积分
7350
发表于 2019-9-15 11:21 | 显示全部楼层
本帖最后由 feidele 于 2019-9-15 11:28 编辑

MH了请修改标题
早上填掉了老风眼,现在正在打开新风眼
回复

使用道具 举报

32

主题

2437

帖子

6534

积分

强台风

积分
6534
发表于 2019-9-15 16:52 | 显示全部楼层
本帖最后由 2018.26W 于 2019-9-15 16:57 编辑

全球热带气旋监测报告
预报:孙舒悦  签发:张 玲   2019 年  09 月  15 日  18 时
“基科”加强为三级飓风
东北太平洋二级飓风“基科”(KIKO)已于今天(15日)上午(北京时,下同)加强为三级飓风,下午2点钟其中心位于墨西哥南下加利福尼亚州圣卢卡斯角(THE SOUTHERN TIP OF BAJA CALIFORNIA)西南方向约1270公里的东北太平洋洋面上,就是北纬16.9度、西经120.4度,中心附近最大风力有16级(54米/秒,相当于我国的超强台风级),中心最低气压为960百帕。

预计,“基科”将以每小时15公里左右的速度向偏西方向移动,强度还将有所增强。
SEVP_NMC_TCMO_SFER_EME_AGLB_L89_P9_20190915100002400_XML_1.jpg
卫星红外监测图像
(北京时间2019年9月15日14时00分)


“温贝托”将向北偏西方向移动

北大西洋热带风暴“温贝托”(HUMBERTO)的中心今天(15日)下午2点钟位于巴哈马群岛大阿巴科岛(GREAT ABACO ISLAND)北偏西方向约180公里的北大西洋洋面上,就是北纬28.0度、西经77.6度,中心附近最大风力有10级(26米/秒,相当于我国的强热带风暴级),中心最低气压为1000百帕。

预计,“温贝托”将以每小时10公里左右的速度向北偏西方向移动,强度逐渐加强。


卫星红外监测图像

(北京时间2019年9月15日14时00分)
回复

使用道具 举报

116

主题

9313

帖子

3万

积分

论坛版主-副热带高压

Sing For You~

Rank: 7Rank: 7Rank: 7

积分
33119
发表于 2019-9-15 16:55 | 显示全部楼层
本帖最后由 炎煌深沉 于 2019-9-15 19:45 编辑

WTPZ43 KNHC 150855
TCDEP3

Hurricane Kiko Discussion Number  12
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       EP132019
200 AM PDT Sun Sep 15 2019

Kiko has continued to strengthen overnight and is now characterized
by a cold ring of convection with cloud top temperatures below -70
degrees Celsius surrounding a clearing, well-defined eye.  Both
subjective and objective satellite intensity estimates have
increased, and a blend of these estimates indicate an initial
intensity of 110 kt.

The improved appearance and structure of Kiko over the past several
hours suggests that some additional strengthening is possible today,
and the official forecast makes Kiko a category 4 hurricane by this
afternoon.  The intensity forecast beyond that time becomes
challenging.  Dynamical and statistical guidance unanimously weaken
Kiko over the next few days.  However, other than a slight increase
in northeasterly shear indicated in SHIPS guidance, there are no
other environmental indicators that stand out as a good reason for
Kiko to weaken as quickly as shown by that guidance.  It is also
interesting to note that there is significant model spread in the
forecast position of Kiko by 72 hours.  Some of the guidance places
Kiko over cool SSTs by day 3, while some solutions keep Kiko over
warmer water.  The official foreast, which is similar to the
previous one, does indicate some weakening through 72 hours, but
at a slower rate than the majority of the guidance since the latest
forecast has trended southward over warm water.  After 72 hours,
increasing southwesterly shear from an upper-level trough to the
northwest of Kiko should cause steady weakening after that time.

Kiko is moving just south of due west, or 265/7 kt. A mid level
ridge to the north of the hurricane should keep it generally on a
west or west-northwestward track for the next couple of days. As
mentioned previously, the models diverge by 72 hours as they
differ in how they handle a mid to upper-level trough approaching
California from the west. The northernmost solutions produce a
break in the ridge with a sharper trough.  The southern solutions
keep the ridge in tact.  Based on the continuation of a slight
southward trend in the guidance, and the southward bias in the
actual track of the cyclone recently, I am placing a little more
weight on the southern solutions.  However, given the large spread
beyond 72 hours, the track confidence during that time is low.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT  15/0900Z 16.9N 120.7W  110 KT 125 MPH
12H  15/1800Z 16.9N 121.8W  115 KT 130 MPH
24H  16/0600Z 17.2N 122.9W  105 KT 120 MPH
36H  16/1800Z 17.5N 124.0W  100 KT 115 MPH
48H  17/0600Z 17.6N 124.9W   95 KT 110 MPH
72H  18/0600Z 17.8N 126.6W   80 KT  90 MPH
96H  19/0600Z 18.1N 128.4W   65 KT  75 MPH
120H  20/0600Z 18.5N 131.0W   55 KT  65 MPH

$$
Forecaster Latto
085607_5day_cone_with_line_and_wind.png
ep1319.gif
13E_150600sair.jpg
回复

使用道具 举报

3

主题

155

帖子

1025

积分

热带风暴

积分
1025
发表于 2019-9-15 20:52 | 显示全部楼层
NHC升C4
13E KIKO 190915 1200  16.9N  120.8W EPAC   115   958
回复

使用道具 举报

42

主题

1504

帖子

7429

积分

论坛版主-副热带高压

凌波微步,罗袜生尘

Rank: 7Rank: 7Rank: 7

积分
7429
 楼主| 发表于 2019-9-15 22:54 | 显示全部楼层
本帖最后由 1007圆规 于 2019-9-15 23:00 编辑

WTPZ43 KNHC 151454
TCDEP3

Hurricane Kiko Discussion Number  13
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       EP132019
800 AM PDT Sun Sep 15 2019

Kiko has become a very powerful hurricane overnight, with a warm eye
and strong eyewall convection. The cloud pattern is also fairly
symmetric, except favoring the western semicircle slightly due to
some easterly shear.  The initial wind speed is set to 115 kt, which
matches the latest ADT and TAFB estimates.

The hurricane should be near its peak intensity today while it in is
a low-shear, marginal warm-water environment. While those conditions
don't change that much during the next few days, Kiko is forecast
to be moving fairly slowly over that time, which will likely stir up
some cooler waters and help weaken the convection.  A steadier
weakening is expected at long-range due to an increase in shear. The
new forecast is somewhat lower than the last one, but higher than
the model consensus.  It isn't out of the realm of possibility that
Kiko could transition into an annular hurricane, which tend to
maintain their intensities higher than average, so I'm hesitant to
reduce the forecast too much for now.

Kiko is moving westward at about 6 kt.  A mid-level ridge to the
north of the cyclone is forecast to remain in place for about the
next two days, keeping the hurricane on a slow westward track.  A
weakness or even a break in the ridge is then forecast by all of the
models due to a mid-latitude trough, with perhaps a restrengthening
of the ridge at long range.  There's been a subtle model trend
toward supporting the ridge remaining weak but intact, which would
favor Kiko moving very slowly westward instead of any significant
rightward turn.  The latest NHC prediction places a greater weight
on the UKMET and ECMWF models and their ensembles, which generally
favor the weak ridge scenario.  No significant changes were made to
the previous forecast track, but the long-range track confidence is
low due to the large model spread at that time.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT  15/1500Z 17.0N 121.1W  115 KT 130 MPH
12H  16/0000Z 17.1N 122.0W  110 KT 125 MPH
24H  16/1200Z 17.3N 123.2W  105 KT 120 MPH
36H  17/0000Z 17.4N 124.1W   95 KT 110 MPH
48H  17/1200Z 17.5N 125.0W   85 KT 100 MPH
72H  18/1200Z 17.5N 126.7W   70 KT  80 MPH
96H  19/1200Z 18.0N 129.0W   65 KT  75 MPH
120H  20/1200Z 18.5N 131.5W   50 KT  60 MPH

$$
Forecaster Blake
145355_5day_cone_with_line_and_wind.png
回复

使用道具 举报

42

主题

1504

帖子

7429

积分

论坛版主-副热带高压

凌波微步,罗袜生尘

Rank: 7Rank: 7Rank: 7

积分
7429
 楼主| 发表于 2019-9-16 06:27 | 显示全部楼层
000
WTPZ43 KNHC 152032
TCDEP3

Hurricane Kiko Discussion Number  14
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       EP132019
200 PM PDT Sun Sep 15 2019

The satellite presentation of Kiko is improving again during the
past couple of hours after the system was looking less organized
shortly after the advisory.  Overall, the hurricane continues to
have a distinct eye and very deep convection in the eyewall.  The
initial wind speed will remain 115 kt, which is closest to the
latest TAFB fix.

While there have been no changes to Kiko's forward motion, westward
at about 6 kt, the track forecast is changing a fair bit in this
advisory.  The long-expected weakness in the subtropical ridge in a
couple of days continues to have less influence on the forecast path
of the hurricane with the bulk of the models shifting southward and
slower on this cycle. In addition, the orientation of the ridge
extending from the central Pacific could even cause a slightly
south-of-west track.  The new NHC prediction is adjusted to the
south and slower than the previous one, but the UKMET, ECMWF and
corrected consensus models are all even farther south, suggesting
further modifications could be necessary later.

The changes to the track forecast will keep Kiko over warmer water
longer than initially thought.  However, it is still forecast to
move at only about 4 kt by tomorrow-- slow enough to cause
significant upwelling under the central core.  Thus gradual
weakening is anticipated, although the new forecast is at or above
the model consensus for the next few days.  The only notable
difference at long range is a higher forecast intensity, mostly due
to the track shifting south about a degree, which keeps the cyclone
out of more marginal water temperatures with less shear.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT  15/2100Z 17.2N 121.9W  115 KT 130 MPH
12H  16/0600Z 17.3N 122.8W  110 KT 125 MPH
24H  16/1800Z 17.4N 123.8W  105 KT 120 MPH
36H  17/0600Z 17.4N 124.6W   95 KT 110 MPH
48H  17/1800Z 17.3N 125.5W   85 KT 100 MPH
72H  18/1800Z 17.2N 127.3W   70 KT  80 MPH
96H  19/1800Z 17.4N 129.5W   65 KT  75 MPH
120H  20/1800Z 17.5N 131.5W   60 KT  70 MPH

$$
Forecaster Blake
IMG_3306.PNG
回复

使用道具 举报

116

主题

9313

帖子

3万

积分

论坛版主-副热带高压

Sing For You~

Rank: 7Rank: 7Rank: 7

积分
33119
发表于 2019-9-16 06:30 | 显示全部楼层
08D4931B-5581-4357-B7B6-04075871D56E.gif
AABB47D9-E56C-4A3E-B472-9916C08FB589.jpeg
1FCC92A2-F471-4B73-AA30-0757BA99BF34.jpeg
7E7C8824-2166-4804-853A-D0D52DC26A79.jpeg
回复

使用道具 举报

116

主题

9313

帖子

3万

积分

论坛版主-副热带高压

Sing For You~

Rank: 7Rank: 7Rank: 7

积分
33119
发表于 2019-9-16 10:42 | 显示全部楼层
本帖最后由 炎煌深沉 于 2019-9-16 12:09 编辑

WTPZ43 KNHC 160232
TCDEP3

Hurricane Kiko Discussion Number  15
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       EP132019
800 PM PDT Sun Sep 15 2019

Kiko has lost some organization this evening.  The eye of the
hurricane has been filling, and the convective pattern is not as
symmetric as it was earlier today.  The initial intensity is
lowered only slightly to 110 kt, following a blend of the latest
satellite intensity estimates, but this could be a little generous.
Recent ASCAT data indicate that although Kiko is a powerful
hurricane, its wind field is quite compact.  Based on that data,
Kiko's tropical-storm-force winds extend no more than 50 n mi from
the center, with hurricane-force winds estimated to extend up to 20
n mi from the center.

The hurricane is moving westward at about 7 kt, steered by a narrow
subtropical ridge to its north.  This motion with a decrease in
forward speed is expected for about 24 hours.  The models all depict
Kiko bending to the west-southwest late Monday and Tuesday in
response to a ridge building to its northwest.  After that time,
the model solutions diverge considerably with some taking Kiko to
the northwest and others more westward or southwestward.  The NHC
official track forecast lies roughly near the middle of the guidance
envelope, and the bottom line is that Kiko will likely be moving
slowly over the eastern Pacific waters during the next several
days.

The intensity models all show Kiko gradually weakening through the
forecast period.  Some of this weakening is likely to be a result of
upwelling due to its expected slow motion and perhaps intrusions of
dry air.  The NHC intensity forecast is a little lower than the
previous one and generally follows the guidance of the intensity
consensus aids.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT  16/0300Z 17.2N 122.6W  110 KT 125 MPH
12H  16/1200Z 17.3N 123.4W  100 KT 115 MPH
24H  17/0000Z 17.3N 124.3W   95 KT 110 MPH
36H  17/1200Z 17.2N 125.1W   85 KT 100 MPH
48H  18/0000Z 17.0N 125.9W   80 KT  90 MPH
72H  19/0000Z 17.0N 127.8W   70 KT  80 MPH
96H  20/0000Z 17.4N 129.4W   65 KT  75 MPH
120H  21/0000Z 17.6N 131.4W   55 KT  65 MPH

$$
Forecaster Cangialosi
5536BE9C-246D-4F8C-A54A-A5AE2C294098.png
6D7B5131-EE3C-4B0F-878C-F58709A2AEB9.gif
7E1F3B4B-4A6F-4387-AEB9-9F0E6CFEF53D.jpeg
回复

使用道具 举报

42

主题

1504

帖子

7429

积分

论坛版主-副热带高压

凌波微步,罗袜生尘

Rank: 7Rank: 7Rank: 7

积分
7429
 楼主| 发表于 2019-9-16 11:36 | 显示全部楼层
本帖最后由 1007圆规 于 2019-9-16 11:37 编辑

全球热带气旋监测报告
预报:吕爱民  签发:董林  2019 年 09 月 16 日 10 时
“基科”向偏西方向移动
东北太平洋三级飓风“基科”(KIKO)的中心今天(16日)上午8点钟(北京时,下同)位于墨西哥南下加利福尼亚州圣卢卡斯角(THE SOUTHERN TIP OF BAJA CALIFORNIA)西南方向约1400公里的东北太平洋洋面上,就是北纬17.2度、西经122.3度,中心附近最大风力有16级(55米/秒,相当于我国的超强台风级),中心最低气压为960百帕。
预计,“基科”将以每小时15公里左右的速度向偏西方向移动,强度还将有所增强。
IMG_3313.GIF
卫星红外监测图像
(北京时间2019年9月16日08时00分)

“温贝托”加强为一级飓风
北大西洋热带风暴“温贝托”(HUMBERTO)已于今天(16日)上午加强为一级飓风,上午8点钟其中心位于巴哈马群岛大阿巴科岛(GREAT ABACO ISLAND)北偏西方向约340公里的北大西洋洋面上,就是北纬29.3度、西经77.8度,中心附近最大风力有12级(33米/秒,相当于我国的台风级),中心最低气压为986百帕。
预计,“温贝托”将以每小时10公里左右的速度向偏转北偏东方向移动,强度将逐渐加强。

卫星红外监测图像
(北京时间2019年9月16日08时00分)
回复

使用道具 举报

您需要登录后才可以回帖 登录 | 立即注册

本版积分规则

Archiver|手机版|小黑屋|台风论坛 ( 沪ICP备11041484号-3 )

GMT+8, 2020-8-5 18:44

Powered by Discuz! X3.4 Licensed

© 2001-2017 Comsenz Inc.

快速回复 返回顶部 返回列表