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[2019] 东太平洋四级飓风“基可”(13E.Kiko) - 缓慢西行,移入中太 - NHC:115KT

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 楼主| 发表于 2019-9-16 17:33 | 显示全部楼层
本帖最后由 1007圆规 于 2019-9-16 18:10 编辑

000
WTPZ43 KNHC 160839
TCDEP3

Hurricane Kiko Discussion Number  16
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       EP132019
200 AM PDT Mon Sep 16 2019

Microwave data and satellite imagery are indicating that
northeasterly shear is disrupting the core of hurricane Kiko. There
is no eye evident, and the central dense overcast has become less
symmetric. A blend of the latest subjective intensity estimates from
TAFB and SAB support lowering the initial advisory intensity to 100
kt.

Kiko is moving westward at 5 kt, to the south of a weak mid-level
ridge. By 36 hours, a ridge building to the northwest of the
hurricane will begin to steer it to the west-southwest. This ridge
is then forecast to weaken by 72 hours, while ridging builds to the
north and northeast of the cyclone. This will result in a general
west to west-northwestward track through the end of the forecast
period. The latest NHC forecast track was nudged slightly southward,
and is in between the consensus aids TVCE and HCCA.

The northeasterly shear currently impacting Kiko is forecast to
persist for the next 24 hours or so.  The shear should subside
between 24-72 hours, but at the same time, increasing subsidence
from the building ridge to the northwest should have a counteractive
affect on the lower shear. After 72 hours, an upper level trough
approaching from the northwest is expected to cause strong
southwesterly shear to affect the cyclone. The official forecast is
in general agreement with the various intensity aids, and shows
gradual weakening through 36 hours, and then levels off the
intensity until 72 hours before resuming a weakening trend.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT  16/0900Z 17.2N 123.1W  100 KT 115 MPH
12H  16/1800Z 17.2N 123.8W   90 KT 105 MPH
24H  17/0600Z 17.2N 124.7W   80 KT  90 MPH
36H  17/1800Z 17.0N 125.5W   75 KT  85 MPH
48H  18/0600Z 16.8N 126.4W   70 KT  80 MPH
72H  19/0600Z 17.0N 128.3W   70 KT  80 MPH
96H  20/0600Z 17.2N 130.0W   65 KT  75 MPH
120H  21/0600Z 17.3N 131.5W   55 KT  65 MPH

$$
Forecaster Latto
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 楼主| 发表于 2019-9-16 17:58 | 显示全部楼层
本帖最后由 1007圆规 于 2019-9-16 18:05 编辑

全球热带气旋监测报告
预报:吕爱民  签发:董林   2019 年  09 月  16 日  18 时
“基科”向偏西方向移动
东北太平洋三级飓风“基科”(KIKO)的中心今天(16日)下午2点钟(北京时,下同)位于墨西哥南下加利福尼亚州圣卢卡斯角(THE SOUTHERN TIP OF BAJA CALIFORNIA)西偏南方向约1500公里的东北太平洋洋面上,就是北纬17.2度、西经122.9度,中心附近最大风力有15级(50米/秒,相当于我国的强台风级),中心最低气压为960百帕。

预计,“基科”将以每小时15公里左右的速度向偏西方向移动,强度将逐渐减弱。

SEVP_NMC_TCMO_SFER_EME_AGLB_L89_P9_20190916100002400_XML_1.gif
卫星红外监测图像
(北京时间2019年9月16日14时00分)


“温贝托”向东北方向移动

北大西洋一级飓风 “温贝托”(HUMBERTO)的中心今天(16日)下午2点钟位于百慕大(BERMUDA)偏西方向约1250公里的北大西洋洋面上,就是北纬29.6度、西经77.5度,中心附近最大风力有13级(38米/秒,相当于我国的台风级),中心最低气压为980百帕。

预计,“温贝托”将以每小时5-10公里的速度向东北方向移动,强度将逐渐加强。


卫星红外监测图像

(北京时间2019年9月16日14时00分)
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发表于 2019-9-17 08:18 | 显示全部楼层
本帖最后由 麦尔修Mark 于 2019-9-17 08:25 编辑

000
WTPZ43 KNHC 162035
TCDEP3

Hurricane Kiko Discussion Number  18
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       EP132019
200 PM PDT Mon Sep 16 2019

There hasn't been a lot of change in Kiko during the day, with the
cyclone keeping a small central core and no hints of an eye
feature.  While there is plenty of outflow, the sharp edge in the
cirrus canopy on the north side is indicative of the maintenance of
northeasterly shear.  Intensity estimates are lower than this
morning, and the initial wind speed is reduced to 85 kt.  Weakening
is anticipated during the next day or so as the shear continues.
The forecast is more complicated after that time since the track
keeps adjusting southward over warmer water while the shear relaxes.
This change results in some models showing re-intensification in a
few days, although that's temporary since the shear is forecast to
resume at long range.  To account for this scenario, the new
forecast shows a small bump up in intensity for later this week, and
we will just have to see how far south Kiko makes it before making a
more significant increase in winds.

Kiko continues to move westward at 4 kt to the south of a weak mid-
level ridge.  The hurricane is forecast to turn to the west-
southwest by tomorrow due to a mid-level ridge building in from the
central Pacific.  This ridge is then forecast to weaken by 72 hours,
while subtropical ridging builds to the north and northeast of the
cyclone. This should result in a general westward to west-
northwestward track through the end of the forecast period. The
majority in the models are south of their previous tracks, starting
the south-of-west motion as early as tonight.  Thus the new forecast
is adjusted south of the last NHC prediction, and this is not a
particularly confident situation due to the unsteadiness of most of
the guidance.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT  16/2100Z 17.3N 124.1W   85 KT 100 MPH
12H  17/0600Z 17.1N 124.7W   75 KT  85 MPH
24H  17/1800Z 16.8N 125.5W   65 KT  75 MPH
36H  18/0600Z 16.6N 126.4W   55 KT  65 MPH
48H  18/1800Z 16.6N 127.5W   55 KT  65 MPH
72H  19/1800Z 17.0N 129.7W   60 KT  70 MPH
96H  20/1800Z 17.3N 130.7W   50 KT  60 MPH
120H  21/1800Z 17.3N 132.0W   40 KT  45 MPH

$$
Forecaster Blake
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 楼主| 发表于 2019-9-17 11:43 | 显示全部楼层
本帖最后由 1007圆规 于 2019-9-17 12:05 编辑

000
WTPZ43 KNHC 170234
TCDEP3

Hurricane Kiko Discussion Number  19
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       EP132019
800 PM PDT Mon Sep 16 2019

Kiko continues to gradually lose strength.  Satellite images show
a less organized central dense overcast feature with no evidence of
an eye.  There is a sharp edge in the convective pattern on the
north side of the system, suggestive of continued northerly wind
shear.  The initial wind speed is lowered to 75 kt, which is near
the high end of the latest satellite intensity estimates.  Kiko
remains a very compact system with its tropical-storm-force winds
and rain bands extending only about 50 n mi from the center.

Additional weakening seems likely during the next 24 hours due to
the continued effects of northerly shear, dry air, and marginally
warm SSTs, and the NHC forecast shows Kiko falling below hurricane
intensity during that time.  The models show Kiko re-strengthening
a little or maintaining its intensity on Wednesday and Thursday as
it moves over slightly warmer waters and into a region of lower
shear.  However, weakening should resume by the end of the week
when the cyclone moves into a less favorable atmospheric
environment.  The NHC intensity forecast follows the trend of the
guidance and is in best agreement with the intensity consensus aids.

Kiko continues to only crawl westward in relatively weak steering
currents.  A ridge building to the northwest of Kiko over the
central Pacific is forecast to steer the cyclone west-southwestward
on Tuesday and Wednesday.  After that time, the ridge is expected to
weaken allowing Kiko to turn westward or west-northwestward later
this week, followed by another turn to the southwest by the end of
the forecast period.  Regardless of the details of the track
forecast, the bottom line is that Kiko is expected to continue its
slow trek for several more days.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT  17/0300Z 17.2N 124.4W   75 KT  85 MPH
12H  17/1200Z 17.0N 124.9W   65 KT  75 MPH
24H  18/0000Z 16.7N 125.9W   55 KT  65 MPH
36H  18/1200Z 16.5N 126.8W   55 KT  65 MPH
48H  19/0000Z 16.6N 128.0W   60 KT  70 MPH
72H  20/0000Z 17.2N 129.8W   60 KT  70 MPH
96H  21/0000Z 17.7N 130.7W   45 KT  50 MPH
120H  22/0000Z 17.2N 132.0W   40 KT  45 MPH

$$
Forecaster Cangialosi
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 楼主| 发表于 2019-9-17 11:46 | 显示全部楼层
本帖最后由 1007圆规 于 2019-9-17 12:05 编辑

全球热带气旋监测报告
预报:吕爱民  签发:董林   2019 年  09 月  17 日  10 时
“基科”减弱为一级飓风
东北太平洋三级飓风“基科”(KIKO)已于今天(17日)上午减弱为一级飓风,上午8点钟(北京时,下同)其中心位于墨西哥南下加利福尼亚州圣卢卡斯角(THE SOUTHERN TIP OF BAJA CALIFORNIA)西偏南方向约1630公里的东北太平洋洋面上,就是北纬17.3度、西经124. 2度,中心附近最大风力有13级(38米/秒,相当于我国的台风级),中心最低气压为982百帕。
预计,“基科”将以每小时15公里左右的速度向偏西方向移动,强度将逐渐减弱。
SEVP_NMC_TCMO_SFER_EME_AGLB_L89_P9_20190917020002400_XML_1.gif
卫星红外监测图像
(北京时间2019年9月17日08时00分)

“温贝托”向北偏东方向移动
北大西洋一级飓风 “温贝托”(HUMBERTO)的中心今天(17日)上午8点钟位于百慕大(BERMUDA)偏西方向约1050公里的北大西洋洋面上,就是北纬30.3度、西经75.5度,中心附近最大风力有13级(40米/秒,相当于我国的台风级),中心最低气压为966百帕。
预计,“温贝托”将以每小时10-15公里的速度向北偏东方向移动,强度将逐渐加强。

卫星红外监测图像
(北京时间2019年9月17日08时00分)
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发表于 2019-9-17 17:09 | 显示全部楼层
本帖最后由 麦尔修Mark 于 2019-9-17 18:11 编辑

000
WTPZ43 KNHC 170852
TCDEP3

Hurricane Kiko Discussion Number  20
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       EP132019
200 AM PDT Tue Sep 17 2019

The northeasterly shear impacting Kiko has still not let up.
Satellite imagery shows an irregular shaped central dense overcast
with the anvils being forced downshear. A blend of the latest
subjective and objective intensity estimates suggest the initial
intensity has decreased to 70 kt, and this value may be a little
generous based on a recent scatterometer pass.

Kiko is moving slowly westward. All of the track guidance indicate
that a turn to the west-southwest should be commencing very soon as
the cyclone becomes steered by a mid-level ridge to its northwest.
This steering pattern should remain in place for the next couple of
days, before the ridge weakens and Kiko becomes steered to the west
to west-northwest by a ridge to its northeast. Late in the forecast
period, a new ridge should develop to the northwest of Kiko, causing
another turn to the west-southwest. All the while, the steering
currents will be fairly weak, resulting in a slow forward motion
for the next several days. The official NHC forecast was adjusted
only slightly to the south through 72 hours due to a shift in the
consensus aids.

The shear is expected to weaken Kiko to a tropical storm later
today. By tonight, this shear is expected to diminish, which could
allow for some re-strengthening. However, moderately stable air
surrounding the system, subsidence from the ridge to the northwest,
and marginal sea surface temperatures should keep the strengthening
at a minimum before the shear returns in a couple of days. This
re-strengthening is forecast by most of the guidance, and although
the NHC forecast makes Kiko a hurricane again, the forecast
intensity is a little lower than some of the most reliable consensus
aids during that time period. Once the shear returns, Kiko is
expected to begin weakening once again and should become a tropical
storm by 72 hours.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT  17/0900Z 17.2N 124.7W   70 KT  80 MPH
12H  17/1800Z 16.9N 125.3W   60 KT  70 MPH
24H  18/0600Z 16.7N 126.3W   55 KT  65 MPH
36H  18/1800Z 16.6N 127.3W   60 KT  70 MPH
48H  19/0600Z 16.8N 128.5W   65 KT  75 MPH
72H  20/0600Z 17.5N 129.9W   55 KT  65 MPH
96H  21/0600Z 17.7N 131.0W   50 KT  60 MPH
120H  22/0600Z 17.0N 132.5W   45 KT  50 MPH

$$
Forecaster Latto
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 楼主| 发表于 2019-9-17 17:43 | 显示全部楼层
本帖最后由 1007圆规 于 2019-9-17 17:58 编辑

全球热带气旋监测报告
预报:吕爱民  签发:董林   2019 年  09 月  17 日  18 时
“基科”将向偏西方向移动
东北太平洋一级飓风“基科”(KIKO)的中心今天(17日)下午2点钟(北京时,下同)位于墨西哥南下加利福尼亚州圣卢卡斯角(THE SOUTHERN TIP OF BAJA CALIFORNIA)西偏南方向约1650公里的东北太平洋洋面上,就是北纬17.3度、西经124. 5度,中心附近最大风力有12级(35米/秒,相当于我国的台风级),中心最低气压为986百帕。
预计,“基科”将以每小时5-10公里的速度向偏西方向移动,强度将逐渐减弱。
SEVP_NMC_TCMO_SFER_EME_AGLB_L89_P9_20190917100002400_XML_1.gif
卫星红外监测图像
(北京时间2019年9月17日14时40分)

“温贝托”将向北偏东方向移动
北大西洋一级飓风 “温贝托”(HUMBERTO)的中心今天(17日)下午2点钟位于百慕大(BERMUDA)偏西方向约960公里的北大西洋洋面上,就是北纬30.5度、西经74.7度,中心附近最大风力有13级(40米/秒,相当于我国的台风级),中心最低气压为966百帕。
预计,“温贝托”将以每小时10-15公里的速度向北偏东方向移动,强度将逐渐加强。

卫星红外监测图像
(北京时间2019年9月17日14时00分)
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发表于 2019-9-17 18:15 | 显示全部楼层
ZCZC MIATCDEP3 ALL
TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM

Hurricane Kiko Discussion Number  17
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       EP132019
800 AM PDT Mon Sep 16 2019

Microwave data and satellite imagery continue to indicate that the
core of Kiko is being disrupted.  While there is a seemingly
favorable outflow pattern, northeasterly shear is undercutting the
top layer and preventing the cyclone from having a closed eyewall.
Satellite estimates are falling and support a perhaps-generous
initial wind speed of 90 kt.

The shear is forecast to continue during the next day or so, which
should promote further weakening. After that time, the shear could
lessen, although the environment overall is hardly very conducive
for strengthening, and this scenario would best support little
change in intensity. By Friday-Saturday, model guidance does show an
increase in shear, so a more notable weakening could occur. The new
NHC intensity forecast is reduced from the previous one, following
the trend in the guidance, but is a bit above the model consensus. A
fair number of models actually show a weaker cyclone, but in a
complex environment, I'd rather be conservative in changing the
longer-range intensity forecast.

There's no significant track change to report with Kiko.  The
hurricane is moving westward at 4 kt, to the south of a weak
mid-level ridge. By 36 hours, another ridge building to the
northwest of the hurricane will begin to steer Kiko to the
west-southwest. This ridge is then forecast to weaken by 72 hours,
while subtropical ridging builds to the north and northeast of the
cyclone. This will likely result in a general westward to
west-northwestward track through the end of the forecast period.
The new forecast track is close to the previous one, on the faster
and southern side of the guidance, which has generally been the
right place to be with Kiko's track.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT  16/1500Z 17.3N 123.7W   90 KT 105 MPH
12H  17/0000Z 17.3N 124.3W   80 KT  90 MPH
24H  17/1200Z 17.2N 125.1W   70 KT  80 MPH
36H  18/0000Z 16.9N 126.0W   65 KT  75 MPH
48H  18/1200Z 16.7N 127.0W   60 KT  70 MPH
72H  19/1200Z 16.9N 129.1W   60 KT  70 MPH
96H  20/1200Z 17.3N 130.7W   55 KT  65 MPH
120H  21/1200Z 17.3N 132.5W   45 KT  50 MPH

$$
Forecaster Blake

NNNN
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 楼主| 发表于 2019-9-17 22:51 | 显示全部楼层
本帖最后由 1007圆规 于 2019-9-17 23:18 编辑

WTPZ43 KNHC 171437
TCDEP3

Hurricane Kiko Discussion Number  21
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       EP132019
800 AM PDT Tue Sep 17 2019

Kiko continues to have an irregular shape on satellite imagery, with
most of the convection near the center and in the southeastern
quadrant of the cyclone.  Still, overnight microwave data indicate
that the hurricane still has a central core, and the latest
satellite estimates support Kiko remaining a 65-kt cyclone on this
advisory.

Kiko has turned toward the west-southwest this morning due to
increased ridging extending from the central Pacific.  The synoptic
pattern is rather changeable near the tropical cyclone, with a
sinuous track anticipated during the next several days due to
fluctuations in strength of the subtropical ridge.  The forecast has
been shifted southward at most times, since the GFS-based guidance
has trended toward the ECMWF/UKMET solutions. However, the NHC track
is on the northern side of the guidance envelope.

The shear that has been affecting Kiko is forecast to relent later
today, which should put an end to the weakening trend.  By late
Wednesday, the cyclone could begin to re-strengthen due to the
relaxation of the shear while the storm is over warmer waters.  At
long range, shear is forecast to increase in about 4 days, causing
weakening around that time, although there's little agreement on
whether that shear will last.  The model guidance is higher at most
forecast times than the last cycle, which makes some sense given the
southerly adjustment to the track forecast.  Thus, the NHC intensity
forecast has been adjusted slightly upward, but is below the
corrected consensus guidance at most times.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT  17/1500Z 17.0N 125.0W   65 KT  75 MPH
12H  18/0000Z 16.7N 125.8W   60 KT  70 MPH
24H  18/1200Z 16.4N 126.8W   60 KT  70 MPH
36H  19/0000Z 16.3N 127.9W   65 KT  75 MPH
48H  19/1200Z 16.5N 128.9W   65 KT  75 MPH
72H  20/1200Z 17.2N 130.1W   70 KT  80 MPH
96H  21/1200Z 17.3N 131.5W   55 KT  65 MPH
120H  22/1200Z 16.5N 133.0W   55 KT  65 MPH

$$
Forecaster Blake
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发表于 2019-9-18 09:31 | 显示全部楼层
本帖最后由 麦尔修Mark 于 2019-9-18 09:40 编辑

WTPZ43 KNHC 172038
TCDEP3

Tropical Storm Kiko Discussion Number  22
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       EP132019
200 PM PDT Tue Sep 17 2019

Convection has been struggling near the center of Kiko today, with
only some re-development near the core of the cyclone during the
past couple of hours.  There's a pretty big disparity in the
initial wind speed estimates this afternoon. Recent ASCAT data
supports 40-45 kt, while other estimates are still near hurricane-
force.  Weighing the scatterometer data heavier than most gives an
initial intensity of 50 kt for this advisory.

Kiko is on track toward the west-southwest, steered by a ridge
extending from the central Pacific.  The forecast continues to
shift to the south with time, with a stronger ridge anticipated,
and the model guidance is more consistent in showing two west-
southwestward dips, one at the current time and one after day 5. The
new NHC track prediction is somewhat south of the previous one, but
this time it is fairly close to the model consensus, hopefully
indicating that the southward shifts are done for the time being.

While the current shear near Kiko should relax later today, it
could take some time before the storm can recover from the
effects of the shear.  Kiko will probably to re-strengthen in a day
or so, in part due to the cyclone moving over warmer waters in a
low-shear environment.  Afterward, there is very little agreement on
the long-range upper-level wind forecast, leading to wildly
divergent intensity forecasts by day 5 in the models, ranging from a
tropical depression to a category 4 hurricane.  For now since the
track forecast brings Kiko again over warmer waters, a slight
increase in wind speed is shown, and this could be conservative at
the end of the 5-day period.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT  17/2100Z 16.8N 125.1W   50 KT  60 MPH
12H  18/0600Z 16.4N 125.8W   50 KT  60 MPH
24H  18/1800Z 16.2N 126.8W   50 KT  60 MPH
36H  19/0600Z 16.1N 127.9W   55 KT  65 MPH
48H  19/1800Z 16.5N 128.9W   60 KT  70 MPH
72H  20/1800Z 17.0N 130.1W   65 KT  75 MPH
96H  21/1800Z 17.0N 131.0W   60 KT  70 MPH
120H  22/1800Z 16.0N 133.5W   65 KT  75 MPH

$$
Forecaster Blake
203926_5day_cone_with_line_and_wind.png
ep1319 (1).gif 13E_171800sair.jpg
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