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[2019] 东太平洋四级飓风“基可”(13E.Kiko) - 缓慢西行,移入中太 - NHC:115KT

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发表于 2019-9-20 00:16 | 显示全部楼层
本帖最后由 麦尔修Mark 于 2019-9-20 00:19 编辑

WTPZ43 KNHC 191448
TCDEP3

Tropical Storm Kiko Discussion Number  29
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       EP132019
800 AM PDT Thu Sep 19 2019

Kiko has generally changed little during the last several hours.
The storm remains relatively compact with deep convection organized
in bands to the north and east of the low-level center.  The
initial intensity remains 55 kt, which is near the high end of the
latest satellite intensity estimates.  Earlier ASCAT data indicated
that the strongest winds were located to the east of the center.

The storm is expected to be in relatively favorable atmospheric and
oceanic conditions during the next few days, and most of the
dynamical models respond by showing the cyclone intensifying during
that time period.  Conversely, the SHIPS and LGEM models show little
change in strength during the next few days.  The NHC intensity
forecast lies between those scenarios and is in best agreement with
the consensus aids.  This forecast is a tad lower than the previous
one.

Kiko is moving slowly westward, steered by a subtropical ridge to
its north.  A turn to the northwest is expected later today in
response to the ridge weakening and a disturbance to the southwest
of Kiko.  A west to west-southwest motion is likely over the
weekend as another ridge strengthens to the northwest of the
cyclone.  The models continue to struggle on the evolution of the
steering pattern for Kiko with the spread between the GFS and ECMWF
at 120 h being around 500 n mi.  The NHC track forecast remains
roughly near the middle of the guidance envelope not far from the
consensus aids.  Regardless of the details, it seems likely that
Kiko will continue to move slowly over the southwestern part of the
east Pacific basin for several more days.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT  19/1500Z 16.0N 128.7W   55 KT  65 MPH
12H  20/0000Z 16.4N 129.3W   55 KT  65 MPH
24H  20/1200Z 17.1N 130.1W   60 KT  70 MPH
36H  21/0000Z 17.7N 130.8W   65 KT  75 MPH
48H  21/1200Z 17.8N 131.6W   65 KT  75 MPH
72H  22/1200Z 17.0N 133.6W   70 KT  80 MPH
96H  23/1200Z 16.5N 135.7W   70 KT  80 MPH
120H  24/1200Z 18.0N 137.5W   60 KT  70 MPH

$$
Forecaster Cangialosi
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发表于 2019-9-20 04:48 | 显示全部楼层
本帖最后由 炎煌深沉 于 2019-9-20 06:59 编辑

WTPZ43 KNHC 192045
TCDEP3

Tropical Storm Kiko Discussion Number  30
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       EP132019
200 PM PDT Thu Sep 19 2019

In terms of organization (and latitude) Kiko appears to have hit
rock bottom and may now be on its way back up (and north). After the
last advisory, Kiko briefly lost all of its central deep convection
and consisted of a low-level swirl of clouds.  Since then,
convective activity has increased substantially and now a rain band
appears to be trying to wrap around the northern semicircle of the
tropical storm.  ASCAT data around 1800 UTC showed max winds of only
35-40 kt, but given the improvement in the structure of Kiko since
that time, the initial intensity is conservatively lowered to 45 kt.

Aside from small adjustments due to the lower initial intensity,
little change was made to the intensity forecast. Most of the
guidance calls for at least slight strengthening, and the dynamical
models are still calling for Kiko to become a hurricane again. Dry
air is still the primary limiting factor, and if Kiko can ever
reform a well-defined inner-core, it could strengthen more quickly
than forecast. By the end of the forecast period, Kiko could
encounter an even drier environment and most of the guidance calls
for weakening.

Kiko is beginning to turn west-northwestward, and a turn toward the
northwest is expected soon. The tropical storm is still forecast to
move slowly westward on a wave-like path due to fluctuations in the
strength of a mid-level ridge to the north. The track guidance is in
particularly poor agreement on the speed Kiko will move west and by
day 5 the ECMWF and GFS are 750 mi apart. Although only minor
changes were made to the NHC forecast, which remains near the model
consensus, confidence in the track forecast is much lower than
usual.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT  19/2100Z 16.3N 129.3W   45 KT  50 MPH
12H  20/0600Z 16.8N 130.0W   50 KT  60 MPH
24H  20/1800Z 17.5N 130.6W   55 KT  65 MPH
36H  21/0600Z 17.9N 131.4W   55 KT  65 MPH
48H  21/1800Z 17.8N 132.2W   55 KT  65 MPH
72H  22/1800Z 17.0N 134.5W   60 KT  70 MPH
96H  23/1800Z 17.0N 136.5W   70 KT  80 MPH
120H  24/1800Z 18.0N 138.5W   55 KT  65 MPH

$$
Forecaster Zelinsky
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 楼主| 发表于 2019-9-20 11:33 | 显示全部楼层
本帖最后由 1007圆规 于 2019-9-20 19:55 编辑

000
WTPZ43 KNHC 200253
TCDEP3

Tropical Storm Kiko Discussion Number  31
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       EP132019
800 PM PDT Thu Sep 19 2019

Kiko's structure hasn't change much since the previous advisory.
The asymmetric pattern of the convection suggests that the cyclone
is under the influence of some shear, which UW-CIMMS is analyzing
to be about 20 kt from the southwest.  The initial intensity is
being maintained at 45 kt based on consensus Dvorak estimates of
T3.0 from TAFB and SAB.

A break in the mid-level steering ridge has allowed Kiko to turn
northwestward, or 305/5 kt.  For the next 5 days, the ridge
is expected to restrengthen and then weaken again as a mid- to
upper-level trough digs southward.  As a result, Kiko is expected
to take a sinuous track while moving generally westward, staying
between 16N-18N.  Even with that expectation, there is significant
divergence in the models toward the end of the forecast period,
with the GFS showing Kiko meandering and the ECMWF keeping the
cyclone on a determined westward course.  Because of this
uncertainty, the updated NHC track has been slowed down a bit from
the previous one.

There has been a significant change in the intensity guidance, with
most of the models showing Kiko's strength decreasing for much of
the forecast period.  Because there is so much uncertainty, the new
NHC intensity forecast brings Kiko's winds to 50 kt in 12 hours,
and then flatlines that intensity through day 4.  Weakening is
possible by the end of the forecast period due to a potential
increase in shear.  Even though the updated NHC forecast has been
lowered from the previous one, it is still above the HCCA model and
the multi-model consensus aids, and additional adjustment could be
required in subsequent advisories.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT  20/0300Z 16.6N 129.6W   45 KT  50 MPH
12H  20/1200Z 17.2N 130.1W   50 KT  60 MPH
24H  21/0000Z 17.7N 130.7W   50 KT  60 MPH
36H  21/1200Z 17.9N 131.4W   50 KT  60 MPH
48H  22/0000Z 17.6N 132.5W   50 KT  60 MPH
72H  23/0000Z 16.6N 134.6W   50 KT  60 MPH
96H  24/0000Z 17.0N 136.5W   50 KT  60 MPH
120H  25/0000Z 18.2N 137.5W   45 KT  50 MPH

$$
Forecaster Berg
025347_5day_cone_with_line_and_wind.png ep1319 (1).gif 13E 9.20 04Z.gif 13E_200000sair.jpg
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 楼主| 发表于 2019-9-20 11:39 | 显示全部楼层
本帖最后由 1007圆规 于 2019-9-20 12:03 编辑

全球热带气旋监测报告
预报:聂高臻  签发:张 玲   2019 年  09 月  20 日  10 时
“基科”向西北方向移动
东北太平洋热带风暴“基科”(KIKO)的中心今天(20日)上午8点钟(北京时,下同)位于墨西哥南下加利福尼亚州圣卢卡斯角(THE SOUTHERN TIP OF BAJA CALIFORNIA)西偏南方向约2170公里的东北太平洋洋面上,就是北纬16.4度、西经129.5度,中心附近最大风力有9级(23米/秒,相当于我国的热带风暴级),中心最低气压为1002百帕。
预计,“基科”将以每小时10公里左右的速度向西北方向移动,强度还将有所加强。
SEVP_NMC_TCMO_SFER_EME_AGLB_L89_P9_20190920020002400_XML_1.gif
卫星红外监测图像
(北京时间2019年9月20日08时03分)

“洛雷娜”减弱为热带风暴
东北太平洋一级飓风“洛雷娜”(LORENA)已于昨天(19日)晚上减弱为热带风暴,今天上午8点钟其中心位于位于墨西哥南下加利福尼亚州圣卢卡斯角(THE SOUTHERN TIP OF BAJA CALIFORNIA)东偏南方向约300公里的东北太平洋洋面上,就是北纬21.9度、西经107.3度,中心附近最大风力有11级(30米/秒,相当于我国的强热带风暴级),中心最低气压为994百帕。
预计,“洛雷娜”将以每小时15-20公里的速度向西北方向移动,强度还将略有增强。

卫星红外监测图像
(北京时间2019年9月20日08时03分)
“马里奥”向西北方向移动
东北太平洋热带风暴“马里奥”(MARIO)的中心今天(20日)上午8点钟位于墨西哥南下加利福尼亚州圣卢卡斯角(THE SOUTHERN TIP OF BAJA CALIFORNIA)偏南方向约620公里的东北太平洋洋面上,就是北纬17.3度、西经110.4度,中心附近最大风力有10级(28米/秒,相当于我国的强热带风暴级),中心最低气压为998百帕。
预计,“马里奥”将以每小时15-20公里的速度向东北转西北方向移动,强度维持。

卫星红外监测图像
(北京时间2019年9月20日08时03分)
“温贝托”减弱为二级飓风
北太平洋三级飓风“温贝托”(HUMBERTO)已于昨天(19日)晚上减弱为二级飓风,今天(20日)上午8点钟其中心位于百慕大(BERMUDA)东北方向约950公里的北大西洋洋面上,就是北纬39.2度、西经58.4度,中心附近最大风力有14级(45米/秒,相当于我国的强台风级),中心最低气压为960百帕。
预计,“温贝托”将以每小时40公里左右的速度向东北方向移动,强度将逐渐减弱。

卫星红外监测图像
(北京时间2019年9月20日08时01分)
“杰里”加强为一级飓风
北大西洋热带风暴“杰里”(JERRY)已于昨天(19日)夜间加强为一级飓风,今天(20日)上午8点钟其中心位于背风群岛(THE LEEWARD ISLANDS)偏东方向约700公里的北大西洋洋面上,就是北纬17.7度、西经56.5度,中心附近最大风力有13级(40米/秒,相当于我国的台风级),中心最低气压为979百帕。
预计,“杰里”将以每小时20-30公里的速度向西偏北方向移动,强度维持或略有加强。

卫星红外监测图像
(北京时间2019年9月20日08时01分)
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发表于 2019-9-20 16:41 | 显示全部楼层
本帖最后由 炎煌深沉 于 2019-9-20 19:58 编辑

WTPZ43 KNHC 200833
TCDEP3

Tropical Storm Kiko Discussion Number  32
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       EP132019
200 AM PDT Fri Sep 20 2019

Kiko has generally changed little during the last several hours. The
low-level center is located near the southwestern edge of a
persistent area of deep convection. This asymmetric cloud pattern is
due to about 20 kt of southwesterly vertical wind shear as estimated
by UW-CIMSS. The initial intensity is held at 45 kt, which is in
agreement with the Dvorak classifications from TAFB and SAB, and the
latest SATCON estimate.

Kiko is moving slowly northwestward, and is expected to continue in
that general direction through today.  A turn to the west and then
west-southwest is expected this weekend as a mid-level ridge builds
to the northwest of the cyclone.  After that time, the models
diverge considerably, with some taking Kiko northward and others
westward.  The differences in the models appear to be at least
partially associated with the vertical depth of Kiko early next
week.  The NHC track forecast lies again roughly near the middle of
the guidance envelope, in best agreement with the various consensus
aids.  Although the details of the track forecast are still
uncertain, it seems likely that Kiko will continue to move slowly
over the southwestern portion of the east Pacific basin for several
more days.

Since there is significant uncertainty in the track forecast, the
future intensity of Kiko is also uncertain given that the
environment is very track dependent.  The models, in general, show
Kiko changing little in intensity, and the NHC forecast does
likewise.  This forecast is a tad lower than the previous one.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT  20/0900Z 17.0N 130.1W   45 KT  50 MPH
12H  20/1800Z 17.6N 130.5W   45 KT  50 MPH
24H  21/0600Z 17.9N 131.2W   45 KT  50 MPH
36H  21/1800Z 17.9N 132.0W   45 KT  50 MPH
48H  22/0600Z 17.4N 133.0W   45 KT  50 MPH
72H  23/0600Z 16.5N 135.0W   45 KT  50 MPH
96H  24/0600Z 17.4N 136.9W   45 KT  50 MPH
120H  25/0600Z 18.3N 137.7W   40 KT  45 MPH

$$
Forecaster Cangialosi
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13E_200600sair.jpg
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发表于 2019-9-20 17:25 | 显示全部楼层
本帖最后由 2018.26W 于 2019-9-20 17:34 编辑

全球热带气旋监测报告
预报:聂高臻  签发:张 玲   2019 年  09 月  20 日  18 时
“基科”向西北方向移动
东北太平洋热带风暴“基科”(KIKO)的中心今天(20日)下午2点钟(北京时,下同)位于墨西哥南下加利福尼亚州圣卢卡斯角(THE SOUTHERN TIP OF BAJA CALIFORNIA)偏西方向约2200公里的东北太平洋洋面上,就是北纬16.8度、西经129.9度,中心附近最大风力有9级(23米/秒,相当于我国的热带风暴级),中心最低气压为1002百帕。

预计,“基科”将以每小时10公里左右的速度向西北方向移动,强度还将有所加强。
SEVP_NMC_TCMO_SFER_EME_AGLB_L89_P9_20190920100002400_XML_1.jpg
卫星红外监测图像
(北京时间2019年9月20日14时00分)


“洛雷娜”向西北方向移动

东北太平洋热带风暴“洛雷娜”(LORENA)的中心今天(20日)下午2点钟位于位于墨西哥南下加利福尼亚州圣卢卡斯角(THE SOUTHERN TIP OF BAJA CALIFORNIA)东偏南方向约180公里的东北太平洋洋面上,就是北纬22.4度、西经108.3度,中心附近最大风力有11级(30米/秒,相当于我国的强热带风暴级),中心最低气压为997百帕。

预计,“洛雷娜”将以每小时15-20公里的速度向西北方向移动,强度维持或略有增强。


卫星红外监测图像

(北京时间2019年9月20日14时00分)

“马里奥”向西北方向移动

东北太平洋热带风暴“马里奥”(MARIO)的中心今天(20日)下午2点钟位于墨西哥南下加利福尼亚州圣卢卡斯角(THE SOUTHERN TIP OF BAJA CALIFORNIA)偏南方向约610公里的东北太平洋洋面上,就是北纬17.4度、西经110.3度,中心附近最大风力有10级(28米/秒,相当于我国的强热带风暴级),中心最低气压为994百帕。

预计,“马里奥”将以每小时10公里左右的速度向东北转西北方向移动,强度维持或略有增强。


卫星红外监测图像

(北京时间2019年9月20日14时00分)

“温贝托”变性为温带气旋

北太平洋三级飓风“温贝托”(HUMBERTO)已于今天(20日)白天变性为温带气旋,中央气象台对其停止监测。

这是关于“温贝托”的最后一期监测公报。

“杰里”加强为二级飓风

北大西洋一级飓风“杰里”(JERRY)已于今天(20日)白天加强为二级飓风,今天下午2点钟其中心位于背风群岛(THE LEEWARD ISLANDS)偏东方向约550公里的北大西洋洋面上,就是北纬18.1度、西经57.9度,中心附近最大风力有14级(45米/秒,相当于我国的强台风级),中心最低气压为981百帕。

预计,“杰里”将以每小时20-30公里的速度向西偏北方向移动,逐渐减弱减弱。


卫星红外监测图像

(北京时间2019年9月20日14时00分)
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发表于 2019-9-21 00:22 | 显示全部楼层
本帖最后由 麦尔修Mark 于 2019-9-21 00:28 编辑

ZCZC MIATCDEP3 ALL
TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM

Tropical Storm Kiko Discussion Number  33
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       EP132019
800 AM PDT Fri Sep 20 2019

A pair of microwave images between 0900 and 1100 UTC revealed that
Kiko has redeveloped a well-defined low-level inner core. However,
most of the deep convection associated with the tropical storm is
located northeast of the center, a result of moderate southwesterly
shear. The intensity of Kiko has been raised slightly to 50 kt
based on an average of the most recent TAFB and SAB Dvorak
estimates.

Kiko is now moving north-northwestward, but is still expected to
turn generally westward, and then west-southwestward as a mid-level
ridge builds to the north of the cyclone during the next couple of
days. Toward the end of the forecast period, the ridge could weaken
(again) and Kiko could turn northwestward (again) but the models
vary on the details of exactly when and where this will happen.
Regardless, Kiko seems destined to continue weaving its way slowly
westward through early next week. Only small adjustments to the
track forecast were made, which remains near HCCA and TVCE.

Kiko has a chance to strengthen a little more today while it
continues on its current heading. After that, every intensity model
forecasts that Kiko will slightly weaken or level off, and the
NHC forecast shows the same. Only a small tweak was made to the NHC
forecast for the first 24 hours to account for the higher initial
intensity of Kiko, and the new forecast is identical to the previous
advisory after that.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT  20/1500Z 17.7N 130.2W   50 KT  60 MPH
12H  21/0000Z 18.1N 130.7W   55 KT  65 MPH
24H  21/1200Z 18.3N 131.5W   50 KT  60 MPH
36H  22/0000Z 17.9N 132.5W   45 KT  50 MPH
48H  22/1200Z 17.3N 133.5W   45 KT  50 MPH
72H  23/1200Z 16.9N 135.5W   45 KT  50 MPH
96H  24/1200Z 18.0N 136.9W   45 KT  50 MPH
120H  25/1200Z 19.0N 138.5W   40 KT  45 MPH

$$
Forecaster Zelinsky

NNNN
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发表于 2019-9-21 04:56 | 显示全部楼层
本帖最后由 炎煌深沉 于 2019-9-21 06:35 编辑

WTPZ43 KNHC 202045
TCDEP3

Tropical Storm Kiko Discussion Number  34
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       EP132019
200 PM PDT Fri Sep 20 2019

Kiko hasn't changed much over the past 6 hours. Microwave imagery
continues to show a fairly well-defined inner-core, but cloud tops
have been warming during the past few hours. Satellite-based
estimates continue to hover around 50 kt, and the estimated
intensity is therefore held at that value.

Kiko has turned to the northwest yet again, and should turn westward
later today. There is no change in the forecast reasoning. Kiko will
likely move on a wave-like path westward for the next several days,
losing latitude as a mid-level ridge to the north amplifies, and
gaining latitude as the ridge weakens. The only difference in the
NHC forecast is that Kiko is forecast to move very slightly faster
than it was before. It should be noted that there is still a decent
amount of spread in the guidance regarding how quickly Kiko will
move west even though the multi-model consensus, which is the basis
for the NHC forecast, has not changed much.

The tropical storm may have exhausted its opportunity to strengthen
now that it has begun to turn back westward, and all of the
reliable intensity guidance forecasts that Kiko will slowly weaken.
The NHC forecast shows the same, but maintains Kiko as a tropical
storm, still over the eastern North Pacific, through day 5. Kiko is
a small tropical cyclone, and small short-term fluctuations in
intensity are certainly possible during the next few days, but
anticipating such fluctuations is beyond the current science of
hurricane forecasting.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT  20/2100Z 17.9N 130.8W   50 KT  60 MPH
12H  21/0600Z 18.2N 131.4W   50 KT  60 MPH
24H  21/1800Z 18.1N 132.3W   50 KT  60 MPH
36H  22/0600Z 17.5N 133.4W   45 KT  50 MPH
48H  22/1800Z 16.9N 134.4W   45 KT  50 MPH
72H  23/1800Z 16.5N 136.6W   45 KT  50 MPH
96H  24/1800Z 18.2N 137.5W   40 KT  45 MPH
120H  25/1800Z 18.5N 139.0W   40 KT  45 MPH

$$
Forecaster Zelinsky
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发表于 2019-9-21 10:40 | 显示全部楼层
本帖最后由 炎煌深沉 于 2019-9-21 12:00 编辑

ZCZC MIATCDEP3 ALL
TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM

Tropical Storm Kiko Discussion Number  35
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       EP132019
800 PM PDT Fri Sep 20 2019

A 2145Z AMSR2 overpass from GCOM-W1 showed a mid-level eye displaced
to the northwest of the low-level center. Dvorak classifications
were T3.5/55 kt from TAFB and SAB, and the latest SATCON estimate
from UW-CIMSS was 56 kt, so the initial intensity is set to 55 kt
for this advisory.

The above-mentioned AMSR2 pass and a partial SSMIS pass at 2355Z
showed the center of Kiko was located farther east than previously
estimated. After some adjustments to the working best track, the
initial motion estimate is 325/04. The guidance still shows Kiko
moving on a wave-like trajectory as mid-level ridge to the north
fluctuates in intensity during the forecast period. The new NHC
track is close to the latest consensus aids and similar to the
previous NHC forecast, but is a little faster, trending toward the
speed of the consensus aids. There is a lot of spread in the model
guidance, by day 5, with the GFS and ECMWF over 400 n mi apart, so
confidence in the details of the track forecast is low especially
late in the forecast period.

All of the intensity guidance shows quick weakening with Kiko, as
the cyclone moves over marginal SSTs and in a somewhat stable and
dry atmospheric environment. The new NHC intensity forecast has
been nudged downward, and is near or a little above the latest
intensity consensus.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT  21/0300Z 18.3N 130.5W   55 KT  65 MPH
12H  21/1200Z 18.3N 131.2W   50 KT  60 MPH
24H  22/0000Z 18.0N 132.4W   45 KT  50 MPH
36H  22/1200Z 17.2N 133.6W   45 KT  50 MPH
48H  23/0000Z 16.6N 134.7W   40 KT  45 MPH
72H  24/0000Z 16.5N 136.5W   40 KT  45 MPH
96H  25/0000Z 18.5N 138.0W   35 KT  40 MPH
120H  26/0000Z 18.5N 139.5W   30 KT  35 MPH

$$
Forecaster Brennan

NNNN
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 楼主| 发表于 2019-9-21 11:41 | 显示全部楼层
本帖最后由 1007圆规 于 2019-9-21 12:10 编辑

全球热带气旋监测报告
预报:柳龙生  签发:王海平   2019 年  09 月  21 日  10 时
“基科”向西北方向移动
东北太平洋热带风暴“基科”(KIKO)的中心今天(21日)上午8点钟(北京时,下同)位于墨西哥南下加利福尼亚州圣卢卡斯角(THE SOUTHERN TIP OF BAJA CALIFORNIA)偏西方向约2180公里的东北太平洋洋面上,就是北纬18.2度、西经130.3度,中心附近最大风力有10级(25米/秒,相当于我国的强热带风暴级),中心最低气压为999百帕。

预计,“基科”将以每小时10公里左右的速度向偏西方向移动,强度维持后逐渐减弱。

SEVP_NMC_TCMO_SFER_EME_AGLB_L89_P9_20190921020002400_XML_1.gif
卫星红外监测图像

(北京时间2019年9月21日08时00分)


“洛雷娜”加强为一级飓风

东北太平洋热带风暴“洛雷娜”(LORENA)加强为一级飓风,其中心今天(21日)上午8点钟位于位于墨西哥南下加利福尼亚州圣卢卡斯角(THE SOUTHERN TIP OF BAJA CALIFORNIA)东北方向约95公里的东北太平洋洋面上,就是北纬23.6度、西经109.5度,中心附近最大风力有12级(33米/秒,相当于我国的台风级),中心最低气压为986百帕。

预计,“洛雷娜”将以每小时15-20公里的速度向西北方向移动,强度逐渐减弱。


卫星红外监测图像

(北京时间2019年9月21日08时00分)

“马里奥”向西北方向移动

东北太平洋热带风暴“马里奥”(MARIO)的中心今天(21日)上午8点钟位于墨西哥南下加利福尼亚州圣卢卡斯角(THE SOUTHERN TIP OF BAJA CALIFORNIA)偏南方向约550公里的东北太平洋洋面上,就是北纬18.2度、西经110.1度,中心附近最大风力有10级(28米/秒,相当于我国的强热带风暴级),中心最低气压为992百帕。

预计,“马里奥”将以每小时10公里左右的速度向西北方向移动,强度维持后逐渐减弱。


卫星红外监测图像

(北京时间2019年9月21日08时00分)

“杰里”减弱为一级飓风

北大西洋二级飓风“杰里”(JERRY)已于今天(21日)上午减弱为一级飓风,上午8点钟其中心位于安奎拉岛(THE ANGUILLA ISLANDS)东北方向约200公里的北大西洋洋面上,就是北纬19.9度、西经62.5度,中心附近最大风力有12级(35米/秒,相当于我国的台风级),中心最低气压为991百帕。

预计,“杰里”将以每小时20-30公里的速度向西偏北方向移动,强度逐渐减弱。


卫星红外监测图像

(北京时间2019年9月21日08时00分)
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