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[2019] 东太平洋四级飓风“基可”(13E.Kiko) - 缓慢西行,移入中太 - NHC:115KT

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 楼主| 发表于 2019-9-22 22:53 | 显示全部楼层
本帖最后由 1007圆规 于 2019-9-22 23:31 编辑

WTPZ43 KNHC 221452
TCDEP3

Tropical Storm Kiko Discussion Number  41
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       EP132019
500 AM HST Sun Sep 22 2019

A small area of deep convection has continued to pulsate near
the center of Kiko overnight and this morning. The most recent
satellite intensity estimates from TAFB and SAB still support
winds of 35 kt, and this is used for the advisory intensity.  Kiko
has a small window of opportunity in which to re-strengthen as it
moves over warmer waters and into an environment of lower wind
shear within the next 24-36 h. After that time, increasing
southwesterly shear and decreasing SSTs should cause weakening and
Kiko is again forecast to become a remnant low by 96 hours.

Kiko is moving southwestward at 7 kt.  There has been no change to
the track forecast reasoning for this advisory.  Kiko should
continue southwestward today, before turning westward, and then
northwestward Monday and Tuesday as a mid-latitude trough cuts off
to the northwest of the cyclone.   After Kiko weakens to a remnant
low, it should turn southwestward once again as it is steered by
the low-level flow.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT  22/1500Z 16.5N 133.5W   35 KT  40 MPH
12H  23/0000Z 15.9N 134.4W   35 KT  40 MPH
24H  23/1200Z 15.8N 135.6W   35 KT  40 MPH
36H  24/0000Z 16.6N 136.7W   40 KT  45 MPH
48H  24/1200Z 17.9N 137.8W   40 KT  45 MPH
72H  25/1200Z 19.4N 139.5W   30 KT  35 MPH
96H  26/1200Z 18.7N 140.5W   25 KT  30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
120H  27/1200Z 17.5N 141.0W   25 KT  30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW

$$
Forecaster Brown
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发表于 2019-9-23 05:05 | 显示全部楼层
本帖最后由 炎煌深沉 于 2019-9-23 06:03 编辑

WTPZ43 KNHC 222035
TCDEP3

Tropical Storm Kiko Discussion Number  42
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       EP132019
1100 AM HST Sun Sep 22 2019

Not much can be added to Kiko after nearly 10 days describing the
cyclone. It still consists of a tight circulation of low clouds
with intermittent bursts of deep convection. Based on Dvorak
estimates the initial intensity is kept at 35 kts. Kiko has the
opportunity to strengthen a little bit in one of those burst, but
the general trend is for Kiko to weaken and become a remnant low as
it crosses the end of our domain.

Kiko is moving toward the west-southwest at 6 knots steered by
the subtropical ridge and its associated trades. Kiko will continue
swinging south of west and north of due west as the subtropical high
pulses during the next few days.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT  22/2100Z 16.1N 133.9W   35 KT  40 MPH
12H  23/0600Z 15.7N 134.8W   35 KT  40 MPH
24H  23/1800Z 16.0N 136.2W   35 KT  40 MPH
36H  24/0600Z 17.2N 137.3W   40 KT  45 MPH
48H  24/1800Z 18.5N 138.5W   40 KT  45 MPH
72H  25/1800Z 19.0N 140.5W   25 KT  30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
96H  26/1800Z 18.5N 141.0W   25 KT  30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
120H  27/1800Z 17.5N 142.0W   25 KT  30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW

$$
Forecaster Avila
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 楼主| 发表于 2019-9-23 10:36 | 显示全部楼层
本帖最后由 1007圆规 于 2019-9-23 12:32 编辑

WTPZ43 KNHC 230235
TCDEP3

Tropical Storm Kiko Discussion Number  43
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       EP132019
500 PM HST Sun Sep 22 2019

There's been little change in Kiko's cloud pattern during the past
several hours, and the subjective and objective satellite intensity
estimates remain unchanged.  Subsequently, the initial intensity is
held at 35 kt for this advisory.

The HFIP HCCA and the Florida State Superensemble intensity
guidance indicate that there's still a chance that Kiko could
re-strengthen a bit during the next 24 hours as it continues moving
over warm oceanic sea surface temperature and in a low shear
surrounding environment.  After that time, increasing southwesterly
shear and cooler waters should induce a weakening trend, and Kiko
is forecast to become a remnant low in 3 days.

Based on a timely 0020 UTC SSMI microwave pass, the initial motion
is estimated to be west-southwestward, or 240/7 kt, which is a
little south of the previous forecast.  There are no significant
changes to the forecast philosophy for this advisory.  Kiko should
turn westward to west-northwestward on Monday, and then
northwestward on Tuesday as a high amplitude mid-tropospheric trough
cuts off, from the upper-level westerlies, to the northwest of the
Kiko.  Around day 3, as the cyclone degenerates into a vertically
shallow remnant low, Kiko is forecast to, once again, turn back
toward the southwest within the low-level tradewinds.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT  23/0300Z 15.5N 134.5W   35 KT  40 MPH
12H  23/1200Z 15.4N 135.5W   40 KT  45 MPH
24H  24/0000Z 16.3N 136.9W   45 KT  50 MPH
36H  24/1200Z 17.7N 138.2W   40 KT  45 MPH
48H  25/0000Z 18.6N 139.2W   35 KT  40 MPH
72H  26/0000Z 19.2N 141.2W   25 KT  30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
96H  27/0000Z 18.0N 142.3W   25 KT  30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
120H  28/0000Z 17.1N 142.6W   20 KT  25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW

$$
Forecaster Roberts
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 楼主| 发表于 2019-9-23 12:04 | 显示全部楼层
本帖最后由 1007圆规 于 2019-9-23 12:18 编辑

全球热带气旋监测报告
预报:胡海川  签发:张 玲   2019 年  09 月  23 日  10 时
“基科”将向西偏南方向移动
东北太平洋热带风暴“基科”(KIKO)的中心今天(23日)上午8点钟(北京时,下同)位于墨西哥南下加利福尼亚州圣卢卡斯角(THE SOUTHERN TIP OF BAJA CALIFORNIA)西偏南方向约2680公里的东北太平洋洋面上,就是北纬15.6度、西经134.1度,中心附近最大风力有8级(20米/秒,相当于我国的热带风暴级),中心最低气压为1004百帕。

预计,“基科”将以每小时15公里左右的速度向西偏南方向移动,强度先加强后减弱。

SEVP_NMC_TCMO_SFER_EME_AGLB_L89_P9_20190923020002400_XML_1.gif
卫星红外监测图像

(北京时间2019年9月23日08时03分)


“洛雷娜”在墨西哥西北部沿岸登陆

东北太平洋热带风暴“洛雷娜”(LORENA)已于昨天(22日)夜间在墨西哥西北部沿海登陆,并变性为温带气旋。

(这是关于“马里奥”的最后一期监测公报)

“杰里”将向西北方向移动

北大西洋热带风暴“杰里”(JERRY)的中心今天(23日)上午8点钟位于波多黎各岛圣胡安(SAN JUAN PUERTO RICO)北偏西方向约960公里的北大西洋洋面上,就是北纬27.1度、西经67.1度,中心附近最大风力有10级(28米/秒,相当于我国的强热带风暴级),中心最低气压为1002百帕。

预计,“杰里”将以每小时15-20公里的速度向西北方向移动,强度变化不大。


卫星红外监测图像

(北京时间2019年9月23日08时02分)

“卡伦”在北大西洋洋面上生成

热带风暴“卡伦”(KAREN)的于昨天(22日)夜间在北大西洋洋面上生成。今天(23日)上午8点钟,其中心位置位于西班牙港(Port of Spain)北偏西方向约320公里的北大西洋洋面上,就是北纬12.9度、西经63.2度,中心附近最大风力有8级(20米/秒,相当于我国的热带风暴级),中心最低气压为1007百帕。

预计,“卡伦”将以每小时5-10公里的速度向西北偏西方向移动,强度变化不大或略有加强。


(北京时间2019年9月23日08时02分)
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发表于 2019-9-23 17:00 | 显示全部楼层
本帖最后由 炎煌深沉 于 2019-9-23 18:33 编辑

WTPZ43 KNHC 230859
TCDEP3

Tropical Storm Kiko Discussion Number  44
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       EP132019
1100 PM HST Sun Sep 22 2019

GOES-17 enhance infrared imagery and an earlier METOP-A AMSU pass
show that resilient Kiko is producing intermittent bursts of deep
convection with associated -77C cold cloud tops near the surface
center.  These convective bursts, based on the TAFB and SAB
intensity estimates, are substantial enough to maintain its tropical
storm status of 35 kt for this advisory.

Both the ECMWF and FV3GFS Decay SHIPS statistical-dynamical
intensity models show Kiko briefly re-strengthening as it
continues moving over warm SSTs and in a favorable upper-level wind
environment.  By Tuesday afternoon, increasing southwesterly shear
and cooler waters should induce a weakening trend, and Kiko is
forecast to become a remnant low in less than 3 days with
dissipation occuring by the end of the forecast period.

The initial motion is estimated to be west-southwestward, or 255/8
kt, just south of due west.  Kiko is expected to turn westward to
west-northwestward on Monday, and then northwestward on Tuesday as a
high amplitude mid-tropospheric trough cuts off, from the
upper-level westerlies, to the northwest of the cyclone.  At the 72
hour period, as the cyclone degenerates into a vertically shallow
remnant low, Kiko should, once again, turn back toward the southwest
within the low-level tradewind flow.  The NHC track forecast is
close to the previous advisory and based on a blend of the various
multi-model consensus aids.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT  23/0900Z 15.5N 135.3W   35 KT  40 MPH
12H  23/1800Z 15.8N 136.4W   40 KT  45 MPH
24H  24/0600Z 16.9N 137.6W   40 KT  45 MPH
36H  24/1800Z 18.1N 138.9W   35 KT  40 MPH
48H  25/0600Z 19.2N 140.3W   30 KT  35 MPH
72H  26/0600Z 19.3N 142.2W   25 KT  30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
96H  27/0600Z 18.2N 143.6W   20 KT  25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
120H  28/0600Z...DISSIPATED

$$
Forecaster Roberts
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 楼主| 发表于 2019-9-23 17:00 | 显示全部楼层
本帖最后由 1007圆规 于 2019-9-23 20:14 编辑

未来系统所处地区的风切将会变大,能否增强就看今晚了
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 楼主| 发表于 2019-9-23 20:00 | 显示全部楼层
本帖最后由 1007圆规 于 2019-9-23 20:34 编辑

全球热带气旋监测报告
预报:胡海川  签发:张 玲   2019 年  09 月  23 日  18 时
“基科”将向西偏南方向移动
东北太平洋热带风暴“基科”(KIKO)的中心今天(23日)下午2点钟(北京时,下同)位于墨西哥南下加利福尼亚州圣卢卡斯角(THE SOUTHERN TIP OF BAJA CALIFORNIA)西偏南方向约2750公里的东北太平洋洋面上,就是北纬15.5度、西经134.5度,中心附近最大风力有8级(20米/秒,相当于我国的热带风暴级),中心最低气压为1006百帕。

预计,“基科”将以每小时15公里左右的速度向西偏南方向移动,强度先加强后减弱。

SEVP_NMC_TCMO_SFER_EME_AGLB_L89_P9_20190923100002400_XML_1.gif
卫星红外监测图像

(北京时间2019年9月23日14时00分)


“杰里”将向西北偏北方向移动

北大西洋热带风暴“杰里”(JERRY)的中心今天(23日)下午2点钟位于波多黎各岛圣胡安(SAN JUAN PUERTO RICO)北偏西方向约1020公里的北大西洋洋面上,就是北纬27.5度、西经67.5度,中心附近最大风力有10级(28米/秒,相当于我国的强热带风暴级),中心最低气压为993百帕。

预计,“杰里”将以每小时15-20公里的速度向西北偏北方向移动,强度变化不大。


卫星红外监测图像

(北京时间2019年9月23日14时00分)

“卡伦”将向西北方向移动

热带风暴“卡伦”(KAREN)的中心今天(23日)下午2点钟位于西班牙港(Port of Spain)北偏西方向约380公里的北大西洋洋面上,就是北纬13.3度、西经63.7度,中心附近最大风力有8级(20米/秒,相当于我国的热带风暴级),中心最低气压为1007百帕。

预计,“卡伦”将以每小时15-20公里的速度向西北方向移动,强度变化不大或略有加强。


(北京时间2019年9月23日14时00分)
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发表于 2019-9-23 21:48 | 显示全部楼层
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发表于 2019-9-24 01:06 | 显示全部楼层
本帖最后由 红豆棒冰冰 于 2019-9-24 01:14 编辑

000
WTPZ43 KNHC 231443
TCDEP3

Tropical Storm Kiko Discussion Number  45
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       EP132019
500 AM HST Mon Sep 23 2019

Kiko's convection has dramatically increased this morning, and
satellite intensity estimates have increased in turn. The initial
intensity is back up to 45 kt based on a blend of objective and
subjective fixes that range from 40 to 55 kt.

Kiko's small size is likely making it particularly susceptible to
short-term intensity fluctuations, so it is unclear at this time how
long this upward trend will continue. It appears that the tropical
storm has a chance to intensify some more today while it is located
in a relatively low shear environment and over warm SSTs. However,
the global models indicate that strong southwesterly shear will once
again affect the cyclone in about 24 h, and weakening is still
anticipated from that time onward. The dynamical models all show
Kiko becoming a post-tropical remnant low in about 72 h, and it
could dissipate a couple of days after that. The NHC intensity
forecast is above most of the guidance at 12 h, but closely follows
the intensity consensus through the rest of the forecast period.

Kiko appears to have turned west-northwestward and the initial
motion is a rather uncertain 285/7 kt. The models are in good
agreement that Kiko will move generally west-northwestward to
northwestward for the next couple of days as the subtropical ridge
weakens yet again. Around 72 h, Kiko is forecast to turn westward or
west-southwestward as it is steered by the low-level tradewind flow.
The NHC forecast is a little faster than the previous one, and
closely follows the TVCE and HCCA consensus aids.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT  23/1500Z 15.7N 135.8W   45 KT  50 MPH
12H  24/0000Z 16.4N 136.9W   50 KT  60 MPH
24H  24/1200Z 17.6N 138.3W   45 KT  50 MPH
36H  25/0000Z 19.0N 139.9W   40 KT  45 MPH
48H  25/1200Z 19.6N 140.8W   30 KT  35 MPH
72H  26/1200Z 19.7N 143.6W   25 KT  30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
96H  27/1200Z 19.3N 145.0W   25 KT  30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
120H  28/1200Z...DISSIPATED

$$
Forecaster Zelinsky
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发表于 2019-9-24 05:02 | 显示全部楼层
本帖最后由 炎煌深沉 于 2019-9-24 07:04 编辑

WTPZ43 KNHC 232031
TCDEP3

Tropical Storm Kiko Discussion Number  46
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       EP132019
1100 AM HST Mon Sep 23 2019

Not only does Kiko refuse to go away, but satellite images indicate
that the cyclone is strengthening.  Recent microwave images
reveal that the inner core of the storm is a little better
organized than it was earlier, and accordingly, the latest
satellite intensity estimates have increased this cycle.  A blend of
the objective and subjective satellite estimates yield an intensity
of about 50 kt.  Hopefully ASCAT data will provide more information
about the cyclone's intensity and size later today.

Kiko is moving west-northwestward at 7 kt.  A turn to the northwest
is expected to occur by tonight, with that motion continuing
through Tuesday as the system moves in the flow between a mid-level
ridge to the northeast and a mid- to upper-level low to its west.
On Wednesday, Kiko is expected to turn back to the west or
west-southwest as the shallow system moves in the low-level
trade winds.  The NHC track forecast is largely an update of the
previous one and near the middle of the guidance envelope. Based on
the current forecast track, Kiko is expected to enter the
central Pacific basin in about 36 hours.

The tropical storm could strengthen a little more through tonight,
but a significant increase in southerly shear and drier air should
cause a steady weakening trend to begin on Tuesday.  Kiko is
expected to weaken to a tropical depression on Wednesday, and it
will likely become a remnant low shortly thereafter.  The NHC
intensity forecast is a little higher than the previous one in the
short term, but is otherwise unchanged.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT  23/2100Z 15.9N 136.5W   50 KT  60 MPH
12H  24/0600Z 16.9N 137.5W   55 KT  65 MPH
24H  24/1800Z 18.1N 138.9W   50 KT  60 MPH
36H  25/0600Z 19.1N 140.1W   40 KT  45 MPH
48H  25/1800Z 19.5N 141.4W   30 KT  35 MPH
72H  26/1800Z 19.2N 143.8W   25 KT  30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
96H  27/1800Z 19.0N 145.2W   25 KT  30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
120H  28/1800Z...DISSIPATED

$$
Forecaster Cangialosi
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