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[2019] 巴哈马群岛东北三级飓风“温贝托”(09L.Humberto) - 掠过巴哈马、百慕大 - NHC:110KT

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发表于 2019-9-11 02:48 | 显示全部楼层 |阅读模式
本帖最后由 327 于 2019-9-23 08:00 编辑

95L INVEST 190910 1800 22.0N 72.0W ATL 20 1013

20190910.1830.goes-16.ir.95L.INVEST.20kts.1013mb.22N.72W.100pc.jpg
two_atl_2d1.png two_atl_5d1.png

Shower and thunderstorm activity associated with a surface trough
near the southeastern Bahamas and adjacent Atlantic waters has
increased since yesterday. Limited development of this disturbance
is expected during the next couple of days while it moves
west-northwestward across the Bahamas. However, environmental
conditions could become a little more conducive for development when
the system moves over the Florida Straits and the Gulf of Mexico
late this week and this weekend. Regardless of development, this
disturbance will produce periods of locally heavy rainfall across
the Bahamas through Thursday, and across Florida on Friday and
continuing into the weekend.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...10 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...low...30 percent.

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参与人数 1金钱 +3 威望 +3 收起 理由
红豆棒冰冰 + 3 + 3 95L

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QQ
发表于 2019-9-11 07:52 | 显示全部楼层
NHC:10/40%
1. A surface trough located over the Turks and Caicos is producing
widespread cloudiness and disorganized thunderstorms over the Turks
and Caicos and the southeastern Bahamas, and extending northward
over the southwestern Atlantic for a few hundred miles. Ship reports
indicate that tropical-storm-force wind gusts are occurring in some
of the heavier squalls.  Limited development of this disturbance is
expected during the next few days while the system moves slowly
west-northwestward across the Bahamas due to only marginally
conducive upper-level winds. However, environmental conditions could
become more favorable for development when the system moves over the
Florida Straits and into the eastern Gulf of Mexico late this week
and over the weekend. Regardless of development, this disturbance
will produce periods of locally heavy rainfall and gusty winds
across the Bahamas through Thursday, and across Florida on Friday
and continuing into the weekend.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...10 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...medium...40 percent.
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发表于 2019-9-11 14:12 | 显示全部楼层

NHC:10%/50%

ZCZC MIATWOAT ALL
TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM

Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
200 AM EDT Wed Sep 11 2019

For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:

1. A surface trough located over the Turks and Caicos continues to
produce widespread cloudiness and disorganized thunderstorms across
the southeastern Bahamas and the Turks and Caicos, and extending
northward over the southwestern Atlantic for a few hundred miles.
Ship reports continue to indicate that tropical-storm-force wind
gusts are occurring in some of the heavier squalls.  Limited
development of this disturbance is expected during the next few days
due to only marginally conducive upper-level winds while the system
moves very slowly west-northwestward across the Bahamas.  However,
environmental conditions could become more favorable for development
when the system moves over the Florida Straits and into the eastern
Gulf of Mexico by Friday and over the weekend. Regardless of
development, this disturbance will produce periods of locally heavy
rainfall and gusty winds across the Bahamas through Thursday, and
across Florida by late Friday and continuing into the weekend.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...10 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...medium...50 percent.


2. A broad low pressure system, associated with a tropical wave, is
located about 800 miles east of the Lesser Antilles. Although this
disturbance continues to produce disorganized shower activity,
some slight development of this system is still possible on
Wednesday. By Thursday, however, upper-level winds are forecast to
become unfavorable for tropical cyclone formation.  This disturbance
is expected to move slowly westward across the tropical Atlantic
Ocean for the next several days.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...20 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...low...20 percent.

3. A tropical wave located between the west coast of Africa and the
Cabo Verde Islands is forecast to move quickly westward during the
next several days. Some slow development is possible over the
weekend or early next week when the system is expected to be a
couple of hundred miles east of the Lesser Antilles.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...near 0 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...low...20 percent.

Forecaster Stewart
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积分
641
发表于 2019-9-11 19:33 | 显示全部楼层

NHC:20%/60%

本帖最后由 POCKETBOX 于 2019-9-11 19:42 编辑

1. Widespread cloudiness and showers extending from the southeastern
Bahamas northward over the southwestern Atlantic for a few
hundred miles are associated with a surface trough of low pressure.
Limited development of this system is anticipated today or
tomorrow, however conditions are forecast to become a little more
favorable for development over the weekend, and a tropical tropical
depression could form as the disturbance moves slowly toward the
west-northwest across the Florida Straits or South Florida and over
the eastern Gulf of Mexico.  Regardless of development, this
disturbance could produce periods of locally heavy rainfall and
gusty winds across the Bahamas through Thursday, and across Florida
during the weekend.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...20 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...medium...60 percent.
two_atl_2d1.png
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论坛版主-副热带高压

ghj说不抢帖会后悔半个月,咕咕咕

Rank: 7Rank: 7Rank: 7

积分
16627
发表于 2019-9-12 07:13 | 显示全部楼层
本帖最后由 炎煌深沉 于 2019-9-12 07:14 编辑

NOUS42 KNHC 111732
REPRPD
WEATHER RECONNAISSANCE FLIGHTS
CARCAH, NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER, MIAMI, FL.
0130 PM EDT WED 11 SEPTEMBER 2019
SUBJECT: TROPICAL CYCLONE PLAN OF THE DAY (TCPOD)
         VALID 12/1100Z TO 13/1100Z SEPTEMBER 2019
         TCPOD NUMBER.....19-106

I.  ATLANTIC REQUIREMENTS
    1. SUSPECT AREA (NEAR CENTRAL BAHAMAS)
       FLIGHT ONE - TEAL 71          FLIGHT TWO - TEAL 72
       A. 12/2000Z                   A. 13/0530Z
       B. AFXXX 01BBA INVEST         B. AFXXX 0209A CYCLONE
       C. 12/1730Z                   C. 13/0245Z
       D. 24.0N 77.0W                D. 24.5N 78.5W
       E. 12/1945Z TO 13/0000Z       E. 13/0500Z TO 13/0830Z
       F. SFC TO 10,000 FT           F. SFC TO 10,000 FT

       FLIGHT THREE - TEAL 73
       A. 13/1130Z,1730Z
       B. AFXXX 0309A CYCLONE
       C. 13/0900Z
       D. 24.7N 79.5W
       E. 13/1100Z TO 13/1730Z
       F. SFC TO 10,000 FT

    2. OUTLOOK FOR SUCCEEDING DAY: CONTINUE 6-HRLY FIXES IF SYSTEM
       DEVELOPS AND REMAINS A THREAT.

II. PACIFIC REQUIREMENTS
    1. NEGATIVE RECONNAISSANCE REQUIREMENTS.
    2. OUTLOOK FOR SUCCEEDING DAY.....NEGATIVE.

$$
SEF

NNNN
7B5BD5A8-0F99-4383-B4CA-7EA200763B0D.png
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论坛版主-副热带高压

ghj说不抢帖会后悔半个月,咕咕咕

Rank: 7Rank: 7Rank: 7

积分
16627
发表于 2019-9-12 08:32 | 显示全部楼层

MHC:50%/70%

本帖最后由 炎煌深沉 于 2019-9-12 09:50 编辑

1. Widespread cloudiness and showers extending from the southeastern
Bahamas northward over the southwestern Atlantic for a few hundred
miles are associated with a sharp trough of low pressure. Although
limited development of this system is anticipated tonight and
Thursday, conditions are forecast to become a little more conducive
for tropical cyclone formation over the weekend, and a tropical
depression is likely to form as the system moves slowly toward the
west-northwest across the Florida Straits and southeastern Florida,
and into the eastern Gulf of Mexico.  This disturbance will likely
produce periods of locally heavy rainfall and gusty winds across the
Bahamas through Friday, and across Florida during the weekend.  An
Air Force Reserve reconnaissance aircraft is scheduled to
investigate the system Thursday afternoon, if necessary.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...medium...50 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...high...70 percent.
FC0FBC10-D195-478F-9F38-1D83A29C1866.png
912575EA-388E-4621-B2B5-7BBAF02606A2.png
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论坛版主-副热带高压

ghj说不抢帖会后悔半个月,咕咕咕

Rank: 7Rank: 7Rank: 7

积分
16627
发表于 2019-9-12 19:55 | 显示全部楼层

NHC:70%/80%

本帖最后由 炎煌深沉 于 2019-9-12 20:11 编辑

1. Satellite images indicate that the area of disturbed weather over
the central and southeastern Bahamas is gradually becoming better
organized while surface pressures are falling in the area.
Conditions are becoming favorable for a tropical depression or a
tropical storm to form within the next day or so as the system moves
toward the northwest through the northwestern Bahamas and toward
the Florida Peninsula at 5 to 10 mph. If this development trend
continues Potential Tropical Cyclone advisories will likely be
initiated later today. This disturbance will bring heavy rainfall
and gusty winds across portions of the Bahamas through Friday,
especially in portions of the northwestern Bahamas affected by
Hurricane Dorian. An Air Force Reserve reconnaissance aircraft is
scheduled to investigate the system this afternoon, if necessary.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...high...70 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...high...80 percent.
two_atl_2d1.png
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发表于 2019-9-13 02:16 | 显示全部楼层

NHC:70%/80%

ZCZC MIATWOAT ALL
TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM

Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
200 PM EDT Thu Sep 12 2019

For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:

1. Satellite derived winds and surface observations indicate that the
disturbance in the Bahamas has not yet developed a closed
circulation, and that the winds are not strong at this time.
However, surface pressures remain low and environmental conditions
are favorable for a tropical depression or tropical storm to form
within the next day or two as the system moves toward the northwest
at 5 to 10 mph through the northwestern Bahamas and toward the
Florida Peninsula.  Potential Tropical Cyclone advisories could be
needed later today or Friday, and interests in the central and
northwestern Bahamas as well as Florida should monitor the progress
of this disturbance.  Regardless of development, this disturbance
will bring heavy rainfall and gusty winds to portions of the Bahamas
through Friday, including areas of the northwestern Bahamas affected
by Hurricane Dorian. An Air Force Reserve reconnaissance aircraft is
still scheduled to investigate the system this afternoon.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...high...70 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...high...80 percent.


2. A tropical wave located several hundred miles west of the Cabo
Verde Islands is producing disorganized showers and thunderstorms.
Conditions appear conducive for development, and a tropical
depression could form early next week while the system moves
westward over the tropical Atlantic.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...near 0 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...medium...40 percent.

Forecaster Avila
two_atl_2d0.png
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two_atl_5d0.png
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发表于 2019-9-13 03:18 | 显示全部楼层
ECMWF 12Z报认为擦岸转向,强度可观
ecmwf_z500_mslp_atl_fh0-240.gif
ecmwf_z500_mslp_atl_8.png
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5490

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论坛版主-副热带高压

ghj说不抢帖会后悔半个月,咕咕咕

Rank: 7Rank: 7Rank: 7

积分
16627
发表于 2019-9-13 03:31 | 显示全部楼层
本帖最后由 炎煌深沉 于 2019-9-13 07:08 编辑

WTNT21 KNGU 121600
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION ALERT//
RMKS/1. FORMATION OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE IS POSSIBLE
WITHIN 100 NM EITHER SIDE OF A LINE FROM 23.0N 74.5W TO 25.9N 76.1W
WITHIN THE NEXT 12 TO 24 HOURS. AVAILABLE DATA DOES NOT JUSTIFY
ISSUANCE OF NUMBERED TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNINGS AT THIS TIME.
WINDS IN THE AREA ARE ESTIMATED TO BE 25 TO 35 KNOTS. METSAT
IMAGERY AT 121422Z INDICATES THAT A CIRCULATION CENTER IS LOCATED
NEAR 23.0N 74.5W. THE SYSTEM IS MOVING NORTH-NORTHWESTWARD AT 08
KNOTS.
2. SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ASSOCIATED WITH AN AREA
OF LOW PRESSURE LOCATED OVER THE SOUTHEASTERN BAHAMAS ARE
GRADUALLY BECOMING ORGANIZED. FURTHERMORE, OBSERVATIONS IN THE
CENTRAL AND SOUTHEASTERN BAHAMAS INDICATE FALLING
SURFACE PRESSURES. UPPER-LEVEL WINDS ARE CURRENTLY MARGINALLY
CONDUCIVE FOR FURTHER DEVELOPMENT AND ARE FORECAST TO BECOME
MORE FAVORABLE AS THE SYSTEM MOVES NEAR THE NORTHEASTERN
BAHAMAS SATURDAY. ANY INDICATION OF A CLOSED SURFACE CIRCULATION
DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS WILL RESULT IN FORMATION OF EITHER
A TROPICAL DEPRESSION OR A TROPICAL STORM. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED
SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 25 TO 35 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA
LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 996 MB. THE POTENTIAL
FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE
WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS IS HIGH.
3. THIS ALERT WILL BE REISSUED, UPGRADED TO WARNING OR CANCELLED
BY 131600Z.
//
al9519.gif
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