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[2019] 巴哈马群岛东北三级飓风“温贝托”(09L.Humberto) - 掠过巴哈马、百慕大 - NHC:110KT

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发表于 2019-9-15 05:00 | 显示全部楼层
本帖最后由 炎煌深沉 于 2019-9-15 06:59 编辑

WTNT44 KNHC 142036
TCDAT4

Tropical Storm Humberto Discussion Number   9
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       AL092019
500 PM EDT Sat Sep 14 2019

An Air Force Hurricane Hunter plane extensively investigated
Humberto during the past several hours. Data from the plane
indicated that the circulation was much better defined than
yesterday and the winds increased to 45 kt. Since the plane
left, satellite images revealed that the cloud pattern has
continued to become better organized, and the low-level center
is now under the convection.  However, the Dvorak numbers still
support keeping the same intensity of 45 kt at this time.

Now that the shear appears to be decreasing and Humberto will be
moving over warm waters, the NHC forecast continues
to call for strengthening.  Humberto is anticipated to become
a hurricane in about 36 hours over the western Atlantic well east
of the Florida east coast, and well away from the Bahamas. The
intensity forecast continues to be consistent with the solutions
of the consensus model and the corrected consensus HCCA. In
addition, all global models intensify Humberto and show an increase
in the size of the storm.

Satellite and reconnaissance fixes indicate that Humberto has
begun to move very slowly toward the north-northwest or 330 degrees
at 6 kt. The ridge over the western Atlantic that has been trapping
Humberto is already weakening, and this should result in a slow
motion toward the north-northwest and then north during the next day
or so. After that time, the cyclone will encounter the mid-latitude
westerlies, and Humberto, by then a hurricane, is forecast to
sharply recurve northeastward away from the United States with no
significant increase in forward speed.  Only by the end of the
forecast period, Humberto should begin to accelerate. The NHC
forecast is very consistent with the track guidance which once again
clearly depict the slow motion of the system, and then a sharp right
turn in 2 or 3 days.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT  14/2100Z 27.4N  77.3W   45 KT  50 MPH
12H  15/0600Z 28.2N  77.9W   55 KT  65 MPH
24H  15/1800Z 29.3N  78.3W   60 KT  70 MPH
36H  16/0600Z 29.9N  77.9W   65 KT  75 MPH
48H  16/1800Z 30.5N  76.7W   75 KT  85 MPH
72H  17/1800Z 31.2N  73.5W   85 KT 100 MPH
96H  18/1800Z 32.5N  67.5W   90 KT 105 MPH
120H  19/1800Z 36.0N  61.0W   80 KT  90 MPH

$$
Forecaster Avila
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发表于 2019-9-15 10:41 | 显示全部楼层
本帖最后由 炎煌深沉 于 2019-9-15 11:22 编辑

WTNT44 KNHC 150233
TCDAT4

Tropical Storm Humberto Discussion Number  10
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       AL092019
1100 PM EDT Sat Sep 14 2019

Humberto is gradually strengthening.  Both the NOAA and Air Force
Hurricane Hunters have been investigating the storm this evening and
they have found that the cyclone is a little stronger.  Based on
that data, the initial wind speed is nudged upward to 50 kt and the
minimum pressure is around 1000 mb.  Satellite images also show
that the storm's structure is improving with an inner core trying to
form and banding features becoming better defined to the north of
the center.  Doppler radar data from the NOAA P-3 aircraft indicate
that the cyclone has become less titled in the vertical, suggesting
that the shear has lessened over the system.  However, there is
still some signs of dry air being wrapped into the southern side of
the circulation.

Satellite and aircraft fixes indicate that the storm is moving
north-northwestward at about 5 kt, steered by a mid-level ridge to
its north-northeast over the western Atlantic.  Humberto is expected
to slow down and turn northward on Sunday well off the coast of
east-central Florida as it moves into a developing weakness in the
ridge. After that time, a turn to the northeast and then the
east-northeast with a gradual increase in forward speed is predicted
as Humberto moves along with the flow near the base of a large scale
trough.  The track models are in relatively good agreement, and only
small changes were made to the previous forecast.

The tropical storm is likely to continue strengthening during the
next 3 to 4 days as it remains in relatively low wind shear
conditions and over the warm Gulf Stream waters.  Beyond that time,
an increase in wind shear associated with an approaching shortwave
trough will likely cause some weakening.  The NHC intensity forecast
is slightly higher than the previous one and shows Humberto becoming
a hurricane in about 24 hours with additional strengthening
thereafter. This forecast is in best agreement with the intensity
consensus models HCCA, IVDR, and IVCN.

The global models suggest that as Humberto gains latitude and
intensifies, its wind field will gradually expand, and that
is reflected in the NHC wind radii forecast.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT  15/0300Z 27.6N  77.3W   50 KT  60 MPH
12H  15/1200Z 28.5N  77.8W   60 KT  70 MPH
24H  16/0000Z 29.3N  77.8W   65 KT  75 MPH
36H  16/1200Z 29.9N  77.1W   70 KT  80 MPH
48H  17/0000Z 30.4N  75.8W   75 KT  85 MPH
72H  18/0000Z 31.2N  72.0W   90 KT 105 MPH
96H  19/0000Z 33.0N  65.6W   95 KT 110 MPH
120H  20/0000Z 36.9N  58.9W   75 KT  85 MPH

$$
Forecaster Cangialosi
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发表于 2019-9-15 16:52 | 显示全部楼层
本帖最后由 2018.26W 于 2019-9-15 16:58 编辑

全球热带气旋监测报告
预报:孙舒悦  签发:张 玲   2019 年  09 月  15 日  18 时
“基科”加强为三级飓风
东北太平洋二级飓风“基科”(KIKO)已于今天(15日)上午(北京时,下同)加强为三级飓风,下午2点钟其中心位于墨西哥南下加利福尼亚州圣卢卡斯角(THE SOUTHERN TIP OF BAJA CALIFORNIA)西南方向约1270公里的东北太平洋洋面上,就是北纬16.9度、西经120.4度,中心附近最大风力有16级(54米/秒,相当于我国的超强台风级),中心最低气压为960百帕。

预计,“基科”将以每小时15公里左右的速度向偏西方向移动,强度还将有所增强。


卫星红外监测图像

(北京时间2019年9月15日14时00分)

“温贝托”将向北偏西方向移动

北大西洋热带风暴“温贝托”(HUMBERTO)的中心今天(15日)下午2点钟位于巴哈马群岛大阿巴科岛(GREAT ABACO ISLAND)北偏西方向约180公里的北大西洋洋面上,就是北纬28.0度、西经77.6度,中心附近最大风力有10级(26米/秒,相当于我国的强热带风暴级),中心最低气压为1000百帕。

预计,“温贝托”将以每小时10公里左右的速度向北偏西方向移动,强度逐渐加强。
SEVP_NMC_TCMO_SFER_EME_AGLB_L89_P9_20190915100002400_XML_2.jpg
卫星红外监测图像
(北京时间2019年9月15日14时00分)
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发表于 2019-9-15 17:05 | 显示全部楼层
本帖最后由 炎煌深沉 于 2019-9-15 17:43 编辑

WTNT44 KNHC 150856
TCDAT4

Tropical Storm Humberto Discussion Number  11
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       AL092019
500 AM EDT Sun Sep 15 2019

Since reconnaissance aircraft departed the storm after midnight, the
overall cloud pattern of Humberto has not changed appreciably.  Both
the earlier aircraft data and a blend of the most recent subjective
satellite intensity estimates from SAB and TAFB still support an
initial intensity of 50 kt.  While there is significant banding
evident over the northern and eastern portions of the circulation,
the cyclone has not be able to maintain convection over the center,
likely due to some mid-level dry air that has wrapped around the
southwestern and southern part of the system.  As Humberto moves
slowly northward today, it will be over warm water and generally
within low vertical wind shear.  This should allow for
strengthening, and the NHC foreast continues to calls for Humberto
to become a hurricane later today or tonight.  Additional
strengthening is likely after that time when the storm recurves and
remains within favorable environmental conditions.  Late in the
period, Humberto is forecast to interact with an approaching
mid-latitude trough, and increasing shear ahead of that system is
likely to cause weakening.  This interaction should also begin
Humberto's transition to an extratropical cyclone.  The updated NHC
intensity forecast is essentially unchanged from the previous
advisory and is in best agreement with the HFIP corrected consensus
model.

Humberto continues to be steered north-northwestward at about 6 kt
by a mid-level ridge over the western Atlantic.  The tropical storm
should turn northward and slow down later today as a weakness
develops in the ridge.  On Monday, a broad trough over the the
northeastern United States is expected to turn Humberto
northeastward, and then east-northeastward away from the United
States.  The dynamical models remain in good agreement on the
overall track forecast scenario but there are some differences in
the forward speed of Humberto after the east-northeastward turn.
The latest NHC track is similar to, but a little slower than, the
previous advisory.  The new track forecast is closest to the
multi-model consensus to account for the forward speed differences
among the guidance.

Large swells from Humberto will affect portions of the northwestern
Bahamas and southeastern United States coast during the next few
days.  These swells are expected to produce dangerous surf
conditions and life-threatening rip currents.  See products issued
by your local weather office for additional information.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT  15/0900Z 28.3N  77.7W   50 KT  60 MPH
12H  15/1800Z 29.0N  77.9W   60 KT  70 MPH
24H  16/0600Z 29.6N  77.6W   65 KT  75 MPH
36H  16/1800Z 30.1N  76.7W   70 KT  80 MPH
48H  17/0600Z 30.5N  75.3W   75 KT  85 MPH
72H  18/0600Z 31.3N  71.2W   90 KT 105 MPH
96H  19/0600Z 33.5N  64.5W   95 KT 110 MPH
120H  20/0600Z 38.0N  58.0W   70 KT  80 MPH

$$
Forecaster Brown
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发表于 2019-9-15 22:55 | 显示全部楼层
本帖最后由 1007圆规 于 2019-9-15 22:58 编辑

WTNT44 KNHC 151454
TCDAT4

Tropical Storm Humberto Discussion Number  12
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       AL092019
1100 AM EDT Sun Sep 15 2019

Visible and passive microwave satellite imagery indicate that
Humberto's inner-core region has improved markedly since early this
morning, including the development of a small but ragged mid-level
eye. In addition, significant dry air entrainment that has been
plaguing the cyclone since its formation appears to have abated
based on the recent development of deep convection in the dry slot
located in the southern semicircle of Humberto's circulation.
Anticyclonic outflow has also been increasing in all quadrants,
along with a hint of cloud-filled eye in recent visible imagery.
Buoy 41010 located just west of the center recently reported a
pressure of 1001.8 mb and 41-kt winds at 4-meters elevation. The
initial intensity has been increased to 55 kt based on a Dvorak
intensity estimate of T3.5/55 kt from TAFB. AN Air Force Reserve
reconnaissance aircraft will reconnoiter Humberto this afternoon,
providing more detailed information on the cyclone's intensity.

The initial motion estimate is 350/06 kt, based mainly on microwave
satellite fix positions. NHC model guidance remains in excellent
agreement on Humberto moving slowly northward through a break in the
subtropical ridge today and tonight, then making a sharp turn toward
the northeast on Monday when the cyclone passes north of the narrow
east-west oriented ridge axis. On days 2-5, the tropical cyclone is
forecast to gradually accelerate toward the northeast and
east-northeast under the influence of increasing westerlies ahead of
a deepening mid-latitude trough forecast to dig southeastward out of
Canada and into the extreme northwestern Atlantic Ocean. The new
official forecast track is very similar to the previous advisory
track, and lies close to a blend of the tightly packed consensus
track models.

Humberto now appears to be well on its way to becoming a hurricane
fairly soon based on the newly formed central dense overcast and
mid-level eye feature. Although the large-scale shear is fairly
large in the SHIPS intensity models, the shear directly over the
center of Humberto is forecast to remain low for the next 48 hours
or so, which should allow for steady strengthening. By 72 hours, the
cyclone is forecast to be situated in the right-rear quadrant of a
strong, anticyclonically curved jet maximum. The associated
upper-level divergence is expected to induce strong pressure falls
and strengthening despite the vertical shear increasing to more than
30 kt. By 96 hours and beyond, slightly cooler waters, much drier
air, and very hostile shear conditions of more than 40 kt should
cause steady weakening. The new NHC intensity forecast follows the
trend of the previous advisory, but now shows Humberto reaching peak
intensity in 72 hours, coincident with the warmest water
temperatures of about 29C and greatest jetstream dynamical forcing.

Large swells from Humberto will affect portions of the northwestern
Bahamas and southeastern United States coast during the next few
days.  These swells are expected to produce dangerous surf
conditions and life-threatening rip currents.  See products issued
by your local weather office for additional information.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT  15/1500Z 28.9N  77.9W   55 KT  65 MPH
12H  16/0000Z 29.5N  77.7W   65 KT  75 MPH
24H  16/1200Z 30.0N  77.1W   70 KT  80 MPH
36H  17/0000Z 30.3N  75.9W   80 KT  90 MPH
48H  17/1200Z 30.7N  74.4W   85 KT 100 MPH
72H  18/1200Z 31.6N  69.6W   95 KT 110 MPH
96H  19/1200Z 34.5N  62.8W   85 KT 100 MPH
120H  20/1200Z 39.0N  57.0W   65 KT  75 MPH

$$
Forecaster Stewart
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发表于 2019-9-16 06:30 | 显示全部楼层
WTNT44 KNHC 152051
TCDAT4

Tropical Storm Humberto Discussion Number  13
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       AL092019
500 PM EDT Sun Sep 15 2019

Humberto's convective structure continues to improve in satellite
imagery and reflectivity data from the Melbourne NOAA Doppler
weather radar, including intermittent appearances of a closed eye.
An Air Force Reserve reconnaissance aircraft investigating Humberto
this afternoon found SFMR winds of 58-59 kt in the northeastern
quadrant outside of the heaviest rain areas, and that the pressure
had fallen 4 mb during the past 2 hours, now down to 989 mb.  Based
on these data, the intensity has been increased to 60 kt.

The initial motion estimate is now 360/05 kt. There are no
significant changes to the previous forecast track or reasoning.
Humberto is likely located on or near an east-west oriented ridge
axis, and a sharp turn toward the northeast is likely during the
next 6-12 hours. The latest NHC model guidance remains highly
convergent on the previous forecast track and continues to show the
cyclone gradually being accelerated toward the northeast and
east-northeast during the 24-120 hour period. The large deep-layer
trough and associated cold front that will be digging southward out
of eastern Canada and the northeastern United States is forecast by
the ECMWF model to develop a cutoff low over the northwestern
Atlantic that results in some binary interaction with Humberto on
day 5. However, this is a new development and is considered to be an
outlier scenario at this time. The new forecast track is similar to
the previous advisory and lies close to the TVCN and HCCA consensus
track models.

Likewise, there is no significant change to previous intensity
forecast. All of the available model guidance continues to support
steady strengthening for the 3 days. In 48-72 hours, Humberto is
forecast to be moving into the right-rear quadrant of a strong,
anticyclonically curved 300-200 mb jet maximum. The associated
strong baroclinic/dynamical forcing is expected to produce strong
pressure falls and strengthening despite the hostile vertical wind
shear conditions of at least 30 kt. On days 4 and 5, the combination
of slightly cooler waters, drier and more stable air, and much
stronger vertical shear of 40-50 kt should cause steady weakening
despite the favorable jetstream dynamics. The previous NHC intensity
forecast remains unchanged, and continues to show Humberto reaching
its peak intensity in 72 hours, coincident with the warmest
sea-surface temperatures and strongest jetstream dynamical forcing.

Large swells from Humberto will affect portions of the northwestern
Bahamas and southeastern United States coast during the next few
days.  These swells are expected to produce dangerous surf
conditions and life-threatening rip currents.  See products issued
by your local weather office for additional information.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT  15/2100Z 29.3N  78.0W   60 KT  70 MPH
12H  16/0600Z 29.8N  77.6W   65 KT  75 MPH
24H  16/1800Z 30.1N  76.7W   70 KT  80 MPH
36H  17/0600Z 30.4N  75.4W   80 KT  90 MPH
48H  17/1800Z 30.7N  73.6W   85 KT 100 MPH
72H  18/1800Z 31.7N  68.9W   95 KT 110 MPH
96H  19/1800Z 35.0N  62.0W   85 KT 100 MPH
120H  20/1800Z 39.6N  56.1W   60 KT  70 MPH

$$
Forecaster Stewart
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发表于 2019-9-16 07:05 | 显示全部楼层
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发表于 2019-9-16 10:40 | 显示全部楼层
本帖最后由 炎煌深沉 于 2019-9-16 12:12 编辑

WTNT44 KNHC 160237
TCDAT4

Hurricane Humberto Discussion Number  14
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       AL092019
1100 PM EDT Sun Sep 15 2019

700 mb flight-level wind data from a NOAA P-3 Hurricane Hunter
aircraft investigating Humberto indicate that the system's intensity
is now 65 kt.  This is also supported by Dvorak classifications
from TAFB and SAB, and it makes the cyclone the third hurricane of
the 2019 Atlantic season.  Humberto's cloud pattern has continued to
gradually become better organized, with increasing coverage and
intensity of deep convection, and pronounced upper-level outflow
over the eastern semicircle of the circulation. The hurricane is
expected to traverse warm Gulf Stream waters for the next several
days, but the dynamical models forecast a significant increase in
southwesterly vertical shear through 72 hours.  In spite of the
latter unfavorable factor, the numerical guidance generally shows
intensification. This is likely at least partially due to some
baroclinic forcing caused by a strong mid-latitude trough to the
north and northeast of Humberto.  The official forecast is a blend
of the latest simple and corrected consensus models and is very
similar to the previous one.

Humberto continues to move very slowly and the latest aircraft and
satellite center fixes indicate that the motion is now
northeastward or 040/3 kt.  The hurricane has just rounded the
western periphery of a subtropical anticyclone and steering
currents are likely to remain weak for the next couple of days.  An
east-northeastward track with a very gradual increase in forward
speed is expected for much of the period while Humberto moves
between the subtropical high and stronger westerlies associated with
the trough to the north.  The new NHC track forecast is a little
slower than the previous one in 4-5 days, but not as slow as the
latest ECMWF and GFS global model runs.

Large swells from Humberto will affect portions of the northwestern
Bahamas and southeastern United States coast during the next few
days.  These swells are expected to produce dangerous surf
conditions and life-threatening rip currents.  See products issued
by your local weather office for additional information.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT  16/0300Z 29.4N  77.6W   65 KT  75 MPH
12H  16/1200Z 29.8N  77.1W   70 KT  80 MPH
24H  17/0000Z 30.1N  76.0W   75 KT  85 MPH
36H  17/1200Z 30.5N  74.7W   80 KT  90 MPH
48H  18/0000Z 30.8N  73.0W   85 KT 100 MPH
72H  19/0000Z 31.8N  68.3W   95 KT 110 MPH
96H  20/0000Z 35.0N  63.3W   80 KT  90 MPH
120H  21/0000Z 39.0N  60.0W   60 KT  70 MPH

$$
Forecaster Pasch
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强热带风暴

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发表于 2019-9-16 11:38 | 显示全部楼层
本帖最后由 1007圆规 于 2019-9-16 11:39 编辑

全球热带气旋监测报告
预报:吕爱民  签发:董林  2019 年 09 月 16 日 10 时
“基科”向偏西方向移动
东北太平洋三级飓风“基科”(KIKO)的中心今天(16日)上午8点钟(北京时,下同)位于墨西哥南下加利福尼亚州圣卢卡斯角(THE SOUTHERN TIP OF BAJA CALIFORNIA)西南方向约1400公里的东北太平洋洋面上,就是北纬17.2度、西经122.3度,中心附近最大风力有16级(55米/秒,相当于我国的超强台风级),中心最低气压为960百帕。
预计,“基科”将以每小时15公里左右的速度向偏西方向移动,强度还将有所增强。

卫星红外监测图像
(北京时间2019年9月16日08时00分)
“温贝托”加强为一级飓风
北大西洋热带风暴“温贝托”(HUMBERTO)已于今天(16日)上午加强为一级飓风,上午8点钟其中心位于巴哈马群岛大阿巴科岛(GREAT ABACO ISLAND)北偏西方向约340公里的北大西洋洋面上,就是北纬29.3度、西经77.8度,中心附近最大风力有12级(33米/秒,相当于我国的台风级),中心最低气压为986百帕。
预计,“温贝托”将以每小时10公里左右的速度向偏转北偏东方向移动,强度将逐渐加强。
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(北京时间2019年9月16日08时00分)
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发表于 2019-9-16 17:30 | 显示全部楼层
本帖最后由 炎煌深沉 于 2019-9-16 17:33 编辑

WTNT44 KNHC 160847
TCDAT4

Hurricane Humberto Discussion Number  15
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       AL092019
500 AM EDT Mon Sep 16 2019

The satellite presentation of the hurricane has continued to
improve overnight, with the center embedded within a fairly
symmetric area of cold cloud tops.  Although no eye is evident in
conventional satellite imagery, a ragged eye could be seen in
long-range NWS Doppler radar data from Melbourne, Florida early
in the night.  Satellite intensity estimates from TAFB, SAB, and
UW/CIMSS all support an intensity of 75 kt, and that is used as the
initial wind speed for this advisory.  An Air Force Reserve
Hurricane Hunter aircraft is scheduled to investigate Humberto this
morning, and should provide a better assessment of the storm's
strength.

Humberto is likely to continue intensifying during the next day or
so while it moves over the warm waters of the Gulf stream and the
shear is not expected to be prohibitive.  The updated NHC forecast
depicts a faster rate of strengthening over the first 36 hours
than before, and is at the upper end of the guidance through that
time.  By 48 hours, increasing westerly shear should slow the
intensification process, but baroclinic forcing caused by a
mid-latitude trough is likely to help the cyclone remain strong
until it begins its extratropical transition later in the period.

Humberto is moving northeastward or 050/3 kt. The hurricane is
forecast to move slowly east-northeastward during the next 24
hours, around the northwestern portion of a subtropical ridge.
After that time, Humberto should continue on an east-northeastward
heading, but at a slightly faster forward speed as a broad trough
becomes established over the western Atlantic.  Later in the period,
a strong shortwave trough is forecast to dig southward which should
cause Humberto to lift northeastward.  The track guidance is in good
agreement through 72 hours, and the confidence in that portion of
the forecast is quite high.  After that time, the forecast
confidence decreases quite a bit as the model spread becomes
unusually large.  This is the due to differs in how Humberto
interacts with the aforementioned trough.  The GFS and HWRF shows
Humberto getting caught by the trough as it cuts-off over the
western Atlantic, while the ECMWF and UKMET show a more progressive
solution, and take Humberto northeastward over the north Atlantic
ahead of the trough. Given the model spread of more than 1000 n mi
at day 5, the NHC track foreast remains close to the multi-model
consensus, but confidence in the 4- and 5-day forecast is rather
low.

Large swells from Humberto will affect portions of the northwestern
Bahamas and southeastern United States coast during the next few
days.  These swells are expected to produce dangerous surf
conditions and life-threatening rip currents.  See products issued
by your local weather office for additional information.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT  16/0900Z 29.7N  77.3W   75 KT  85 MPH
12H  16/1800Z 30.0N  76.6W   85 KT 100 MPH
24H  17/0600Z 30.3N  75.4W   90 KT 105 MPH
36H  17/1800Z 30.6N  73.9W   95 KT 110 MPH
48H  18/0600Z 31.0N  72.0W   95 KT 110 MPH
72H  19/0600Z 33.0N  66.5W   95 KT 110 MPH
96H  20/0600Z 37.0N  62.0W   75 KT  85 MPH
120H  21/0600Z 40.0N  58.5W   55 KT  65 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP

$$
Forecaster Brown
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