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[2019] 巴哈马群岛东北三级飓风“温贝托”(09L.Humberto) - 掠过巴哈马、百慕大 - NHC:110KT

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发表于 2019-9-18 12:02 | 显示全部楼层
全球热带气旋监测报告
预报:聂高臻  签发:梁 健   2019 年  09 月  18 日  10 时
“基科”减弱为热带风暴
东北太平洋一级飓风“基科”(KIKO)已于今天(18日)凌晨(北京时,下同)减弱为热带风暴级,今天上午8点钟其中心位于墨西哥南下加利福尼亚州圣卢卡斯角(THE SOUTHERN TIP OF BAJA CALIFORNIA)西偏南方向约1730公里的东北太平洋洋面上,就是北纬16.8度、西经125.2度,中心附近最大风力有10级(25米/秒,相当于我国的强热带风暴级),中心最低气压为986百帕。

预计,“基科”将以每小时5-10公里的速度向偏西方向移动,强度变化不大。


卫星红外监测图像

(北京时间2019年9月18日08时10分)

“温贝托”将向北偏东方向移动

“温贝托”(HUMBERTO)已于昨天夜间至今天早晨由一级飓风增强为三级飓风,今天(18日)上午8点钟其中心位于百慕大(BERMUDA)西偏南方向约660公里的北大西洋洋面上,就是北纬31.2度、西经71.6度,中心附近最大风力有16级(52米/秒,相当于我国的超强台风级),中心最低气压为951百帕。

预计,“温贝托”将以每小时15-20公里的速度向东偏北方向移动,强度将维持或逐渐减弱。

SEVP_NMC_TCMO_SFER_EME_AGLB_L89_P9_20190918020002400_XML_2.gif
卫星红外监测图像

(北京时间2019年9月18日08时01分)


“伊梅尔达”在北大西洋生成

北大西洋热带风暴“伊梅尔达”(IMELDA)已于昨天(17日)晚上在美国得克萨斯州(TEXAS)东南部近海生成,随后在在上述地区沿海登陆,并于今天早晨减弱为热带低压。

预计,“伊梅尔达”将以每小时10公里左右的速度向偏北方向移动,强度继续减弱。

这是关于“伊梅尔达”的最后一期监测公报。

“洛雷娜”在东北太平洋洋面上生成

东北太平洋热带风暴“洛雷娜”(LORENA)已于昨天(17日)晚上在东北太平洋洋面上生成,今天(18日)上午8点钟其中心位于墨西哥南下加利福尼亚州圣卢卡斯角(THE SOUTHERN TIP OF BAJA CALIFORNIA)东南方向约1250公里的东北太平洋洋面上,就是北纬14.8度、西经101.6度,中心附近最大风力有9级(23米/秒,相当于我国的热带风暴级),中心最低气压为1002百帕。

预计,“洛雷娜”将以每小时10-20公里的速度向西北方向移动,强度维持或缓慢增强。


卫星红外监测图像

(北京时间2019年9月18日08时01分)

“马里奥”在东北太平洋洋面上生成

东北太平洋热带风暴“马里奥”(LORENA)已于今天(18日)凌晨在东北太平洋洋面上生成,今天上午8点钟其中心位于墨西哥南下加利福尼亚州圣卢卡斯角(THE SOUTHERN TIP OF BAJA CALIFORNIA)偏南方向约1120公里的东北太平洋洋面上,就是北纬12.9度、西经108.9度,中心附近最大风力有8级(18米/秒,相当于我国的热带风暴级),中心最低气压为1005百帕。

预计,“马里奥”将以每小时10-20公里的速度向西北方向移动,强度逐渐增强。


卫星红外监测图像

(北京时间2019年9月18日08时03分)
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发表于 2019-9-18 17:05 | 显示全部楼层
本帖最后由 炎煌深沉 于 2019-9-18 17:44 编辑

WTNT44 KNHC 180847
TCDAT4

Hurricane Humberto Discussion Number  23
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       AL092019
500 AM AST Wed Sep 18 2019

Humberto's satellite presentation continues to be outstanding with
a large ragged eye and surrounded by deep convection. The eye of the
hurricane is very near NOAA Buoy 41048 and most likely will passing
over it by the time this advisory is being released. The pressure
from the buoy has been dropping fast and is now at 961 mb and the
sustained winds have reached 58 kt with gusts to 78 kt. Based on
satellite appearance and continuity, the initial intensity is kept
at 100 kt. Another Hurricane Hunter aircraft will check the cyclone
in a few hours.

Some fluctuations in strength due to a potential eyewall replacement
are possible during the next 12 to 24 hours or so. After that time
very strong southwesterly wind shear should impact the hurricane
resulting in weakening. In 72 hours or earlier, the global models
show the system merging with a frontal zone, so the NHC forecast
calls for extratropical transition by that time.  The official
intensity forecast follows the corrected consensus HCCA and is not
very different from the previous one.

Humberto is accelerating, and satellite fixes yield an initial
motion toward the east-northeast or 065 degrees at 14 kt.  Humberto
is located at the base of a strong mid-to upper-level trough, and
the hurricane will likely interact with this amplifying trough. This
should force Humberto to turn toward the northeast and north-
northeast at a faster forward speed in 24-36 hours. Later in the
forecast period, the track guidance indicates that Humberto will
turn back toward the east-northeast while becoming embedded within
the mid-latitude westerlies. The NHC track forecast is very similar
to the previous one and is in the middle of the guidance envelope.


Key Messages:

1. Hurricane conditions are expected in Bermuda tonight and Thursday
morning, with tropical-storm-force winds expected to begin later
today. Residents there should follow advice given by local
officials.

2.  Storm surge and dangerous breaking waves could cause coastal
flooding tonight and Thursday along the southern coast of Bermuda.

3. Swells will continue to affect the northwestern Bahamas and the
southeastern coast of the United States from east-central Florida to
North Carolina during the next couple of days, creating life-
threatening surf and rip current conditions.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT  18/0900Z 31.7N  69.6W  100 KT 115 MPH
12H  18/1800Z 32.7N  67.2W  105 KT 120 MPH
24H  19/0600Z 34.8N  63.5W  100 KT 115 MPH
36H  19/1800Z 37.5N  61.0W   85 KT 100 MPH
48H  20/0600Z 40.0N  59.5W   65 KT  75 MPH
72H  21/0600Z 43.0N  53.9W   45 KT  50 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
96H  22/0600Z 45.5N  38.0W   45 KT  50 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
120H  23/0600Z 52.1N  23.0W   45 KT  50 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP

$$
Forecaster Avila
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发表于 2019-9-18 17:26 | 显示全部楼层
本帖最后由 1007圆规 于 2019-9-18 17:30 编辑

全球热带气旋监测报告
预报:聂高臻  签发:梁 健   2019 年  09 月  18 日  18 时
“基科”向偏西方向移动
东北太平洋热带风暴“基科”(KIKO)的中心今天(18日)下午2点钟(北京时,下同)位于墨西哥南下加利福尼亚州圣卢卡斯角(THE SOUTHERN TIP OF BAJA CALIFORNIA)西偏南方向约1790公里的东北太平洋洋面上,就是北纬16.6度、西经125.6度,中心附近最大风力有9级(23米/秒,相当于我国的强热带风暴级),中心最低气压为1002百帕。

预计,“基科”将以每小时5-10公里的速度向偏西方向移动,强度变化不大。


卫星红外监测图像

(北京时间2019年9月18日14时00分)

“温贝托”将向北偏东方向移动

北太平洋三级飓风“温贝托”(HUMBERTO)的中心今天(18日)下午2点钟位于百慕大(BERMUDA)偏西方向约540公里的北大西洋洋面上,就是北纬31.5度、西经70.4度,中心附近最大风力有16级(52米/秒,相当于我国的超强台风级),中心最低气压为951百帕。

预计,“温贝托”将以每小时15-20公里的速度向东偏北方向移动,强度将维持而后逐渐减弱。

SEVP_NMC_TCMO_SFER_EME_AGLB_L89_P9_20190918100002400_XML_2.gif
卫星红外监测图像

(北京时间2019年9月18日14时00分)


“洛雷娜”向西北方向移动

东北太平洋热带风暴“洛雷娜”(LORENA)的中心今天(18日)下午2点钟位于墨西哥南下加利福尼亚州圣卢卡斯角(THE SOUTHERN TIP OF BAJA CALIFORNIA)东南方向约1110公里的东北太平洋洋面上,就是北纬15.6度、西经102.6度,中心附近最大风力有9级(23米/秒,相当于我国的热带风暴级),中心最低气压为1002百帕。

预计,“洛雷娜”将以每小时10-20公里的速度向西北方向移动,强度维持或缓慢增强。


卫星红外监测图像

(北京时间2019年9月18日14时00分)

“马里奥”向西北方向移动

东北太平洋热带风暴“马里奥”(MARIO)的中心今天(18日)下午2点钟位于墨西哥南下加利福尼亚州圣卢卡斯角(THE SOUTHERN TIP OF BAJA CALIFORNIA)偏南方向约1050公里的东北太平洋洋面上,就是北纬13.4度、西经109.5度,中心附近最大风力有8级(20米/秒,相当于我国的热带风暴级),中心最低气压为1003百帕。

预计,“马里奥”将以每小时10-20公里的速度向西北方向移动,强度逐渐增强。


卫星红外监测图像

(北京时间2019年9月18日14时00分)
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发表于 2019-9-18 23:31 | 显示全部楼层
本帖最后由 麦尔修Mark 于 2019-9-18 23:44 编辑

WTNT44 KNHC 181444
TCDAT4

Hurricane Humberto Discussion Number  24
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       AL092019
1100 AM AST Wed Sep 18 2019

An Air Force Reserve Hurricane Hunter aircraft conducting a
reconnoiter of Humberto this morning found that the intensity of the
major hurricane had increased slightly, but that the inner-core 64-
and 50-kt wind fields had expanded significantly, now extending
outward up to at least 90 n mi and 110 n mi, respectively, in the
southeastern quadrant. During their pass through the southeastern
quadrant, the aircraft measured 700-mb flight-level winds of 120 kt,
but peak SFMR winds of only 97 kt. Given that convection is minimal
in that quadrant, the normal downward mixing is likely not
occurring, the intensity has only been increased to 105 kt. The
aircraft also measured a central pressure of 952 mb with a
dropsonde, which is close to the pressure of 954.2 mb with 30-kt
winds that NOAA buoy 41048 measured in the eye around 0930 UTC.

The initial motion estimate remains 065/14 kt. Humberto is beginning
to feel the effects of a deep-layer trough approaching from the
west, and the hurricane should continue to accelerate toward the
east-northeast through tonight, passing just north and northwest
of Bermuda, followed by a turn toward the northeast by early
Thursday afternoon. By 48 hours or so, Humberto is forecast to turn
back toward the east-northeast and maintain that motion through day
5 as a ridge to the east of the cyclone weakens and flattens out.
The new NHC track forecast is very similar to the previous one for
the first 36 hours, and then is a little faster and to the left of
the previous advisory thereafter, closer to the tightly packed
consensus track model guidance.

Humberto may have peaked in intensity based on the cloud pattern
in satellite imagery beginning to take on the appearance of an
extratropical cyclone. Thus, some fluctuations in strength could
occur during the next 12 hours or so. Thereafter, very strong
southwesterly vertical wind shear and cold upwelling beneath the
hurricane should disrupt the inner-core convection and organization,
resulting in steady weakening. By 72 hours, the global models
continue to show Humberto merging with a frontal system, and the
NHC intensity forecast calls for extratropical transition by that
time. The official intensity forecast follows the corrected-
consensus models HCCA and FSSE through the next 12-24 hours, and
then is above that guidance through the remainder of the forecast
period, closer to an average of the global models.

Key Messages:

1. A prolonged period of dangerous winds is expected on Bermuda from
late this afternoon through Thursday morning, with hurricane-force
winds expected overnight tonight. Preparations to protect life and
property should be rushed to completion.

2. Storm surge and dangerous breaking waves could cause coastal
flooding tonight and Thursday along the southern coast of Bermuda.

3. Swells will continue to affect the northwestern Bahamas and the
southeastern coast of the United States from east-central Florida to
North Carolina during the next couple of days, creating life-
threatening surf and rip current conditions.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT  18/1500Z 32.2N  68.1W  105 KT 120 MPH
12H  19/0000Z 33.5N  65.4W  100 KT 115 MPH
24H  19/1200Z 36.1N  62.1W   90 KT 105 MPH
36H  20/0000Z 38.6N  60.5W   75 KT  85 MPH
48H  20/1200Z 40.7N  59.5W   60 KT  70 MPH
72H  21/1200Z 43.3N  50.4W   45 KT  50 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
96H  22/1200Z 47.2N  33.4W   45 KT  50 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
120H  23/1200Z 54.0N  20.0W   45 KT  50 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP

$$
Forecaster Stewart
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发表于 2019-9-19 04:56 | 显示全部楼层
本帖最后由 炎煌深沉 于 2019-9-19 06:52 编辑

WTNT44 KNHC 182052
TCDAT4

Hurricane Humberto Discussion Number  25
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       AL092019
500 PM AST Wed Sep 18 2019

Normal communications with the Bermuda Weather Service have been
disrupted due to a lightning strike.

Humberto is taking on more of a hybrid-extratropical structure based
on most of the rain shield having been displaced to the left or
poleward side of the circulation now as seen in Bermuda weather
radar data, and also in conventional and passive microwave satellite
imagery. Sustained hurricane-force winds and gusts have been
measured by amateur radio operators across the island, with a peak
gust to 104 mph having been reported thus far at Ports Island,
Bermuda. The initial intensity of 105 kt on the previous advisory
has been maintained since little overall change in the structure has
occurred since the last aircraft reconnaissance mission 6 hours ago.

The initial motion estimate is 060/17 kt. There are no significant
changes to the previous forecast track or reasoning. Humberto has
basically remained on track during the past 24 hours. The hurricane
is expected to continue accelerating toward the east-northeast
tonight and Thursday morning, with the center expected to pass
about 80 nmi northwest of Bermuda early this evening. A turn toward
the northeast and north-northeast is forecast to occur by early
Thursday afternoon, followed by a motion toward the east-northeast
by 48 hours, with the latter motion continuing through 96 hours. The
new official track forecast is similar to the previous advisory
track, and lies close to the tightly packed TVCN, NOAA-HCCA, and
FSSE consensus track models.

Humberto is now fully embedded within an anticyclonically curved
right-rear jet entrance region. As a result, some fluctuations in
strength could occur during the next 12 hours or so. Thereafter,
strong southwesterly vertical wind shear in excess of 50 kt, along
with cold upwelling beneath the hurricane, should combine to induce
steady weakening. By 48 hours, the global models continue to
forecast Humberto to merge with a frontal system, and the NHC
intensity forecast calls for extratropical transition around that
time. The official intensity forecast follows an average of the
global models' intensity forecasts due to Humberto's hybrid nature,
which is not being captured properly by the tropical-cyclone-based
consensus intensity models.

Key Messages:

1. A prolonged period of dangerous winds is expected to continue on
Bermuda through Thursday morning, with hurricane-force winds
expected during the next several hours. Preparations to protect
life and property should be rushed to completion.

2. Storm surge and dangerous breaking waves could cause coastal
flooding tonight and Thursday along the southern coast of Bermuda.

3. Swells will continue to affect the northwestern Bahamas and the
southeastern coast of the United States from east-central Florida to
North Carolina during the next couple of days, creating life-
threatening surf and rip current conditions.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT  18/2100Z 33.0N  66.3W  105 KT 120 MPH
12H  19/0600Z 34.6N  63.6W  105 KT 120 MPH
24H  19/1800Z 37.4N  61.0W   95 KT 110 MPH
36H  20/0600Z 39.8N  60.0W   75 KT  85 MPH
48H  20/1800Z 41.6N  58.7W   60 KT  70 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
72H  21/1800Z 43.9N  47.0W   45 KT  50 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
96H  22/1800Z 49.0N  30.0W   45 KT  50 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
120H  23/1800Z...DISSIPATED/ABSORBED

$$
Forecaster Stewart
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强热带风暴

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发表于 2019-9-19 11:04 | 显示全部楼层
本帖最后由 1007圆规 于 2019-9-19 12:11 编辑

000
WTNT44 KNHC 190255
TCDAT4

Hurricane Humberto Discussion Number  26
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       AL092019
1100 PM AST Wed Sep 18 2019

Normal communications with the Bermuda Weather Service have been
restored.  However, the weather radar on Bermuda is currently down.

The center of Humberto made its closest approach to Bermuda a few
hours ago, with many weather stations on the island reporting
sustained hurricane force winds and gusts near or over 100 kt.
Since that time, an Air Force Reserve Hurricane Hunter aircraft has
arrived at the storm and reported little change in strength despite
a decaying appearance in satellite imagery.  The SFMR surface wind
estimates were in the 100-105 kt range to the west of the center,
and the central pressure was near 952 mb.  Based on these data,
the initial intensity is held at a possibly conservative 105 kt.

The decay in the satellite signature is due to Humberto starting to
undergo extratropical transition, a process that the global models
forecast to be complete by 36 h.  Those models forecast that the
cyclone should steadily weaken during and after the transition
until it is absorbed by another low pressure system between 96-120
h, and the intensity forecast follows this scenario.  The new
intensity forecast is basically an update of the previous forecast,
with a slightly faster decrease in intensity during the first 48 h.

The initial motion is now 055/20.  Humberto is forecast to turn
north-northeastward as it becomes extratropical, followed by a turn
back toward the east-northeastward as the extratropical low is
steered by the mid-latitude westerlies.  The track guidance
remains tightly clustered, and the new forecast track has only
minor adjustments from the previous forecast.


Key Messages:

1.  Tropical-storm conditions on Bermuda should subside during the
next several hours.

2. Storm surge and dangerous breaking waves, while diminishing,
could cause coastal flooding tonight and Thursday along the coast of
Bermuda.

3. Swells will continue to affect the northwestern Bahamas and the
southeastern coast of the United States from east-central Florida to
North Carolina during the next couple of days, creating life-
threatening surf and rip current conditions.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT  19/0300Z 34.0N  63.9W  105 KT 120 MPH
12H  19/1200Z 35.8N  61.6W   95 KT 110 MPH
24H  20/0000Z 38.5N  59.8W   85 KT 100 MPH
36H  20/1200Z 40.7N  58.8W   70 KT  80 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
48H  21/0000Z 42.4N  56.1W   55 KT  65 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
72H  22/0000Z 45.0N  41.7W   45 KT  50 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
96H  23/0000Z 50.0N  25.5W   45 KT  50 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
120H  24/0000Z...DISSIPATED

$$
Forecaster Beven
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发表于 2019-9-19 11:36 | 显示全部楼层
本帖最后由 1007圆规 于 2019-9-19 11:47 编辑

全球热带气旋监测报告
预报:吕爱民  签发:林金凎   2019 年  09 月  19 日  10 时
“基科”向偏西方向移动
东北太平洋热带风暴“基科”(KIKO)的中心今天(19日)上午8点钟(北京时,下同)位于墨西哥南下加利福尼亚州圣卢卡斯角(THE SOUTHERN TIP OF BAJA CALIFORNIA)西偏南方向约1990公里的东北太平洋洋面上,就是北纬15.8度、西经127.5度,中心附近最大风力有10级(28米/秒,相当于我国的强热带风暴级),中心最低气压为998百帕。

预计,“基科”将以每小时5-10公里的速度继续向偏西方向移动,强度将有所加强。


卫星红外监测图像

(北京时间2019年9月19日08时00分)

“洛雷娜”向西北方向移动

东北太平洋热带风暴“洛雷娜”(LORENA)的中心今天(19日)上午8点钟位于墨西哥曼萨尼略(MANZANILLO)南偏东方向约100公里的东北太平洋洋面上,就是北纬18.3度、西经104.3度,中心附近最大风力有11级(30米/秒,相当于我国的强热带风暴级),中心最低气压为993百帕。

预计,“洛雷娜”将以每小时15-20公里的速度向西北方向移动,强度将维持或缓慢增强。


卫星红外监测图像

(北京时间2019年9月19日08时00分)

“马里奥”向西北方向移动

东北太平洋热带风暴“马里奥”(MARIO)的中心今天(19日)上午8点钟位于墨西哥南下加利福尼亚州圣卢卡斯角(THE SOUTHERN TIP OF BAJA CALIFORNIA)南偏东方向约900公里的东北太平洋洋面上,就是北纬15.1度、西经112.1度,中心附近最大风力有10级(28米/秒,相当于我国的强热带风暴级),中心最低气压为998百帕。

预计,“马里奥”将以每小时15-20公里的速度向西北方向移动,强度将缓慢增强。


卫星红外监测图像

(北京时间2019年9月19日08时00分)

“温贝托”将向东偏北方向移动

北太平洋三级飓风“温贝托”(HUMBERTO)的中心今天(19日)上午8点钟位于百慕大(BERMUDA)偏北方向约120公里的北大西洋洋面上,就是北纬33.2度、西经65.0度,中心附近最大风力有15级(50米/秒,相当于我国的强台风级),中心最低气压为955百帕。

预计,“温贝托”将以每小时30公里左右的速度向东偏北方向移动,强度将逐渐减弱。

SEVP_NMC_TCMO_SFER_EME_AGLB_L89_P9_20190919020002400_XML_4.png
卫星红外监测图像

(北京时间2019年9月19日08时00分)


北大西洋热带风暴“杰里”生成

北大西洋热带风暴“杰里”(JERRY)已于昨天(18日)生成,今天(19日)上午8点钟其中心位于背风群岛(THE LEEWARD ISLANDS)偏东方向约1150公里的北大西洋洋面上,就是北纬15.2度、西经51.2度,中心附近最大风力有10级(28米/秒,相当于我国的强热带风暴级),中心最低气压为998百帕。

预计,“杰里”将以每小时25公里左右的速度向西偏北方向移动,强度将逐渐加强。


卫星红外监测图像

(北京时间2019年9月19日08时00分)
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ghj说不抢帖会后悔半个月,咕咕咕

Rank: 7Rank: 7Rank: 7

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发表于 2019-9-19 16:54 | 显示全部楼层
本帖最后由 炎煌深沉 于 2019-9-19 18:10 编辑

ZCZC MIATCDAT4 ALL
TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM

Hurricane Humberto Discussion Number  27
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       AL092019
500 AM AST Thu Sep 19 2019

Flight-level and surface wind observations reported by Air Force
Reserve Hurricane Hunter aircraft exiting Humberto a couple of hours
ago indicated that the maximum sustained winds have increased to 110
kt.  However, weakening is expected to commence soon.

Humberto's extratropical transition continues as a high amplitude PV
tongue, noted in the GOES-16 water vapor imagery, and associated dry
air, digs into the backside of the cyclone.  The large-scale models,
as well as the FSU Cyclone Phase Evolution forecast, indicate that
the process will be completed in less than 36 hours.  Afterward,
gradual weakening is expected until the extratropical low is
absorbed by another larger low pressure system, moving out of
Atlantic Canada, by the end of the forecast period.  The NHC
intensity forecast is basically an update of the previous forecast
and is based on a blend of the global models beyond the 36 hour
period.

The initial motion is estimated to be northeastward, or 045/19 kt.
Humberto is forecast to turn north-northeastward as the cyclone
completes its extratropical transition, followed by a turn
back toward the east-northeast within the strong deep-layer
mid-latitude westerlies.  The NHC forecast is nudged a little to the
left of the previous advisory between the 36 and 72 hour periods,
and is close to the NOAA HFIP HCCA consensus model.

Key Messages:

1. Storm surge and dangerous breaking waves, while diminishing,
could cause coastal flooding today along the coast of Bermuda.

2. Swells will continue to affect the northwestern Bahamas and the
southeastern coast of the United States from east-central Florida to
North Carolina during the next couple of days, creating life-
threatening surf and rip current conditions.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT  19/0900Z 35.2N  62.2W  110 KT 125 MPH
12H  19/1800Z 37.4N  60.0W   95 KT 110 MPH
24H  20/0600Z 39.9N  58.9W   75 KT  85 MPH
36H  20/1800Z 41.8N  57.4W   60 KT  70 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
48H  21/0600Z 43.2N  53.4W   50 KT  60 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
72H  22/0600Z 46.3N  36.4W   45 KT  50 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
96H  23/0600Z...DISSIPATED

$$
Forecaster Roberts

NNNN
085937_5day_cone_with_line_and_wind.png
al092019.20190919093445.gif
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发表于 2019-9-19 17:13 | 显示全部楼层
本帖最后由 1007圆规 于 2019-9-19 17:18 编辑

全球热带气旋监测报告
预报:吕爱民  签发:林金凎   2019 年  09 月  19 日  18 时
“基科”向偏西方向移动
东北太平洋热带风暴“基科”(KIKO)的中心今天(19日)下午2点钟(北京时,下同)位于墨西哥南下加利福尼亚州圣卢卡斯角(THE SOUTHERN TIP OF BAJA CALIFORNIA)西南方向约2050公里的东北太平洋洋面上,就是北纬15.8度、西经128.0度,中心附近最大风力有10级(28米/秒,相当于我国的强热带风暴级),中心最低气压为998百帕。

预计,“基科”将以每小时5-10公里的速度继续向偏西方向移动,强度还将有所加强。


卫星红外监测图像

(北京时间2019年9月19日14时00分)

“洛雷娜”加强为一级飓风

东北太平洋热带风暴“洛雷娜”(LORENA)已于天(19日)下午加强为一级飓风,下午2点钟其中心位于墨西哥曼萨尼略(MANZANILLO)西偏北方向约40公里的东北太平洋洋面上,就是北纬19.3度、西经104.9度,中心附近最大风力有12级(33米/秒,相当于我国的台风级),中心最低气压为990百帕。

预计,“洛雷娜”将以每小时15-20公里的速度向西北方向移动,强度将缓慢增强。


卫星红外监测图像

(北京时间2019年9月19日14时00分)

“马里奥”向西北方向移动

东北太平洋热带风暴“马里奥”(MARIO)的中心今天(19日)下午2点钟位于墨西哥南下加利福尼亚州圣卢卡斯角(THE SOUTHERN TIP OF BAJA CALIFORNIA)南偏东方向约850公里的东北太平洋洋面上,就是北纬15.6度、西经111.9度,中心附近最大风力有10级(28米/秒,相当于我国的强热带风暴级),中心最低气压为998百帕。

预计,“马里奥”将以每小时15-20公里的速度向西北方向移动,强度将缓慢增强。


卫星红外监测图像

(北京时间2019年9月19日14时00分)

“温贝托”将向东偏北方向移动

北太平洋三级飓风“温贝托”(HUMBERTO)的中心今天(19日)下午2点钟位于百慕大(BERMUDA)北偏东方向约315公里的北大西洋洋面上,就是北纬34.7度、西经63.0度,中心附近最大风力有16级(55米/秒,相当于我国的超强台风级),中心最低气压为952百帕。

预计,“温贝托”将以每小时40公里左右的速度向东偏北方向移动,强度将逐渐减弱。

SEVP_NMC_TCMO_SFER_EME_AGLB_L89_P9_20190919100002400_XML_4.gif
卫星红外监测图像

(北京时间2019年9月19日14时20分)


“杰里”向西偏北方向移动

北大西洋热带风暴“杰里”(JERRY)的中心今天(19日)下午2点钟位于背风群岛(THE LEEWARD ISLANDS)偏东方向约1000公里的北大西洋洋面上,就是北纬15.7度、西经52.5度,中心附近最大风力有10级(28米/秒,相当于我国的强热带风暴级),中心最低气压为997百帕。

预计,“杰里”将以每小时15公里左右的速度向西偏北方向移动,强度将逐渐加强。


卫星红外监测图像

(北京时间2019年9月19日14时00分)
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一条通往星星的崎岖道路

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发表于 2019-9-19 23:55 | 显示全部楼层
本帖最后由 麦尔修Mark 于 2019-9-20 00:03 编辑

WTNT44 KNHC 191450
TCDAT4

Hurricane Humberto Discussion Number  28
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       AL092019
1100 AM AST Thu Sep 19 2019

Humberto is still a powerful hurricane, but the system is in the
process of transitioning to an extratropical cyclone.  Satellite
images indicate that frontal features have formed, and cooler and
drier air is wrapping around the western and southern sides of the
circulation.  Deep convection is most organized to the north and
west of the partially exposed low-level center.  The initial
intensity is lowered to 95 kt for this advisory.

A mid- to upper-level low situated just west of Humberto has been
aiding in its transition, and the global models suggest that
Humberto will become fully extratropical later today.  Despite the
fact that the cyclone is expected to lose its tropical
characteristics, it is still forecast to produce winds of
hurricane-force for another 36 hours or so.

Humberto is moving northeastward at 21 kt.  A turn to the
north-northeast with a decrease in forward speed is expected later
today and tonight as Humberto rotates around the north side of the
mid- to upper-level low.  After that, a faster east-northeast or
east motion is expected, as the system becomes embedded in the
mid-latitude westerlies.  The cyclone should be absorbed by
another extratropical low in about 3 days over the far north
Atlantic.

Key Messages:

1. Large swells will continue to affect Bermuda, the northwestern
Bahamas, and the east coast of the United States from east-central
Florida to the Mid-Atlantic States during the next couple of days.
These swells could create life-threatening surf and rip current
conditions.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT  19/1500Z 36.8N  60.0W   95 KT 110 MPH
12H  20/0000Z 38.8N  58.9W   90 KT 105 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
24H  20/1200Z 41.2N  57.6W   80 KT  90 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
36H  21/0000Z 43.2N  54.8W   65 KT  75 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
48H  21/1200Z 44.6N  49.3W   55 KT  65 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
72H  22/1200Z...DISSIPATED

$$
Forecaster Cangialosi
145123_5day_cone_with_line_and_wind.png
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