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[2019] 1916号热带气旋“琵琶”(17W.Peipah)机构发报专帖

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发表于 2019-9-15 01:33 | 显示全部楼层 |阅读模式
本帖最后由 红豆棒冰冰 于 2019-9-15 21:03 编辑

wp972019.20190914172847.gif -de06ae8f73177b3.jpg
WTPN22 PGTW 141700
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION ALERT (INVEST 97W)//
REF/A/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/140921Z SEP 19//
AMPN/REF IS TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION ALERT (WTPN21 PGTW 140930)//
RMKS/
1. FORMATION OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE IS POSSIBLE WITHIN
120 NM EITHER SIDE OF A LINE FROM 13.9N 151.5E TO 18.6N 147.8E
WITHIN THE NEXT 12 TO 24 HOURS. AVAILABLE DATA DOES NOT JUSTIFY
ISSUANCE OF NUMBERED TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNINGS AT THIS TIME. WINDS
IN THE AREA ARE ESTIMATED TO BE 18 TO 23 KNOTS. METSAT IMAGERY AT
141200Z INDICATES THAT A CIRCULATION CENTER IS LOCATED NEAR 14.4N
151.0E. THE SYSTEM IS MOVING NORTHWESTWARD AT 08 KNOTS.
2. REMARKS: AN AREA OF CONVECTION (INVEST 97W) PREVIOUSLY LOCATED AT
13.5N 152.8E, IS NOW LOCATED AT 14.4N 151.2E, APPROXIMATELY 304 NM
EAST OF SAIPAN. ANIMATED ENHANCED INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY DEPICTS
A PARTIALLY EXPOSED LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC) WITH DEEP
CONVECTION SHEARED TO THE SOUTH. A 141551Z GMI 89GHZ MICROWAVE IMAGE
ALSO SHOWS THE DEEP CONVECTION BEING SHEARED TO THE SOUTH AND
FRAGMENTED BANDING WRAPPING INTO THE LLCC FROM THE WEST. 97W IS
CURRENTLY IN A MARGINAL ENVIRONMENT WITH EXCELLENT EQUATORWARD
OUTFLOW AND WARM (30 TO 31 CELSIUS) SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURE BEING
OFFSET BY VERY STRONG (45-50 KTS) VERTICAL WIND SHEAR (VWS). GLOBAL
MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT THAT 97W WILL MAINTAIN A CIRCULATION
NEAR THE 25 KT WARNING THRESHOLD FOR THE NEXT FEW DAYS. MAXIMUM
SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 18 TO 23 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA
LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1005 MB. THE POTENTIAL FOR
THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24
HOURS IS HIGH.
3. THIS ALERT WILL BE REISSUED, UPGRADED TO WARNING OR CANCELLED BY
151700Z.
4. SEE REF A FOR DETAILS ON A TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION ALERT
LOCATED NEAR 21.9N 134.3E.//
NNNN

WTPN22 PGTW 141700
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION ALERT (INVEST 97W)//
REF/A/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/140921Z SEP 19//
AMPN/REF IS TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION ALERT (WTPN21 PGTW 140930)//
RMKS/
1. FORMATION OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE IS POSSIBLE WITHIN
120 NM EITHER SIDE OF A LINE FROM 13.9N 151.5E TO 18.6N 147.8E
WITHIN THE NEXT 12 TO 24 HOURS. AVAILABLE DATA DOES NOT JUSTIFY
ISSUANCE OF NUMBERED TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNINGS AT THIS TIME. WINDS
IN THE AREA ARE ESTIMATED TO BE 18 TO 23 KNOTS. METSAT IMAGERY AT
141200Z INDICATES THAT A CIRCULATION CENTER IS LOCATED NEAR 14.4N
151.0E. THE SYSTEM IS MOVING NORTHWESTWARD AT 08 KNOTS.
2. REMARKS: AN AREA OF CONVECTION (INVEST 97W) PREVIOUSLY LOCATED AT
13.5N 152.8E, IS NOW LOCATED AT 14.4N 151.2E, APPROXIMATELY 304 NM
EAST OF SAIPAN. ANIMATED ENHANCED INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY DEPICTS
A PARTIALLY EXPOSED LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC) WITH DEEP
CONVECTION SHEARED TO THE SOUTH. A 141551Z GMI 89GHZ MICROWAVE IMAGE
ALSO SHOWS THE DEEP CONVECTION BEING SHEARED TO THE SOUTH AND
FRAGMENTED BANDING WRAPPING INTO THE LLCC FROM THE WEST. 97W IS
CURRENTLY IN A MARGINAL ENVIRONMENT WITH EXCELLENT EQUATORWARD
OUTFLOW AND WARM (30 TO 31 CELSIUS) SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURE BEING
OFFSET BY VERY STRONG (45-50 KTS) VERTICAL WIND SHEAR (VWS). GLOBAL
MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT THAT 97W WILL MAINTAIN A CIRCULATION
NEAR THE 25 KT WARNING THRESHOLD FOR THE NEXT FEW DAYS. MAXIMUM
SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 18 TO 23 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA
LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1005 MB. THE POTENTIAL FOR
THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24
HOURS IS HIGH.
3. THIS ALERT WILL BE REISSUED, UPGRADED TO WARNING OR CANCELLED BY
151700Z.
4. SEE REF A FOR DETAILS ON A TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION ALERT
LOCATED NEAR 21.9N 134.3E.//
NNNN

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 楼主| 发表于 2019-9-15 01:42 | 显示全部楼层

1916号热带气旋“琵琶”(17W.Peipah)机构发报指引

本帖最后由 红豆棒冰冰 于 2019-9-18 23:25 编辑

9月14日:
JTWC  TCFA   18--Prognostic Reasoning

9月15日:
JMA   12(命名)   15   18   21
CMA  12   18   21
         台风公报(21:00)
KMA  12   18
CWB  00   06   12   18
JTWC  00--Prognostic Reasoning   06--Prognostic Reasoning
         12--Prognostic Reasoning   18--Prognostic Reasoning

9月16日:
JMA   00   03   06   09   12(降格低压)
CMA  00   06   09(降格低压)   12(停编)
         台风公报(06:00)   台风公报(10:00)   台风公报(18:00)
KMA  00   06   12
CWB  00   06   12
JTWC  00--Prognostic Reasoning   06--Prognostic Reasoning
         12(Final Warning)
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发表于 2019-9-15 04:15 | 显示全部楼层

JTWC/17W/#01/09-14 18Z

本帖最后由 327 于 2019-9-15 04:40 编辑

WTPN32 PGTW 142100
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL DEPRESSION 17W (SEVENTEEN) WARNING NR 001   
   01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN NORTHWESTPAC
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
    ---
   WARNING POSITION:
   141800Z --- NEAR 14.8N 150.6E
     MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 310 DEGREES AT 06 KTS
     POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 025 NM
     POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
   PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 025 KT, GUSTS 035 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   REPEAT POSIT: 14.8N 150.6E
    ---
   FORECASTS:
   12 HRS, VALID AT:
   150600Z --- 16.3N 149.4E
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 325 DEG/ 13 KTS
    ---
   24 HRS, VALID AT:
   151800Z --- 18.4N 147.9E
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 325 DEG/ 15 KTS
    ---
   36 HRS, VALID AT:
   160600Z --- 20.8N 146.0E
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 325 DEG/ 16 KTS
    ---
   EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
   48 HRS, VALID AT:
   161800Z --- 23.4N 144.1E
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 025 KT, GUSTS 035 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
   VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 330 DEG/ 12 KTS
    ---
   72 HRS, VALID AT:
   171800Z --- 27.4N 141.3E
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 020 KT, GUSTS 030 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
    ---
REMARKS:
142100Z POSITION NEAR 15.2N 150.3E.
14SEP19. TROPICAL DEPRESSION 17W (SEVENTEEN), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY
279 NM EAST OF SAIPAN, HAS TRACKED NORTHWESTWARD AT 06 KNOTS OVER
THE PAST SIX HOURS. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 141800Z IS 12
FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 150300Z, 150900Z, 151500Z AND 152100Z.
2. THIS CANCELS AND SUPERSEDES REF A (WTPN22 PGTW 141700).//
NNNN
wp172019.20190914200813.gif
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发表于 2019-9-15 04:50 | 显示全部楼层

JTWC/17W/#01/09-14 18Z Prognostic Reasoning

WDPN32 PGTW 142100
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/PROGNOSTIC REASONING FOR TROPICAL DEPRESSION 17W (SEVENTEEN)
WARNING NR 01//
RMKS//
1. FOR METEOROLOGISTS.
2. 6 HOUR SUMMARY AND ANALYSIS.
   TROPICAL DEPRESSION (TD) 17W (SEVENTEEN), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY
279 NM EAST OF SAIPAN, HAS TRACKED NORTHWESTWARD AT 06 KNOTS (KTS)
OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED ENHANCED INFRARED SATELLITE
IMAGERY REVEALS DEEP CONVECTION TO THE SOUTH OF A PARTIALLY EXPOSED
LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC). A 141701Z SSMI 85 GHZ MICROWAVE
IMAGE DEPICTS SHALLOW BANDING TO THE NORTH OF THE LLCC. BASED ON
THOSE IMAGES, THERE IS GOOD CONFIDENCE IN THE INITIAL POSITION. A
141127Z METOP-C ASCAT IMAGE AND A 141200Z METOP-B ASCAT IMAGE SHOWED
A BROAD REGION OF 25-30 KT WINDS WRAPPING AROUND THE SOUTHERN HALF
OF THE CIRCULATION. THE 25 KT INITIAL INTENSITY ALIGNS WITH THE
ASCAT PASSES AND A PGTW DVORAK CURRENT INTENSITY ESTIMATE OF T1.0
(25 KTS). STRONG (25-50 KT) VERTICAL WIND SHEAR (VWS) IS OFFSETTING
EXCELLENT EQUATORWARD OUTFLOW AND WARM (30-31 CELSIUS) SEA SURFACE
TEMPERATURE (SST) TO MAKE THE ENVIRONMENT UNFAVORABLE FOR
INTENSIFICATION. TD 17W IS TRACKING ALONG THE SOUTHWESTERN PERIPHERY
OF A SHALLOW, NORTHWEST-TO-SOUTHEAST ORIENTED SUBTROPICAL RIDGE
(STR).
3. FORECAST REASONING.
   A. THIS IS THE INITIAL PROGNOSTIC REASONING AND SETS THE FORECAST
PHILOSOPHY.
   B. FOR THE DURATION OF THE FORECAST, TD 17W WILL TRACK
NORTHWESTWARD ALONG THE PERIPHERY OF THE STR. THE UNFAVORABLE
ENVIRONMENT IS EXPECTED TO KEEP INTENSITY TO 30 KTS OR LESS. THE
INTENSITY FORECAST IS JUST BELOW THE INTENSITY CONSENSUS, OFFSETTING
THE UNLIKELY HWRF PEAK OF 45 KTS AT TAU 24, BUT SLIGHTLY ABOVE THE
BULK OF THE INTENSITY GUIDANCE. DISSIPATION WILL LIKELY OCCUR
SOMETIME AFTER TAU 48, IF NOT SOONER, AS THE CURRENTLY UNDER
CONTINUED UNFAVORABLE ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS. NUMERICAL MODEL
GUIDANCE IS IN EXCELLENT AGREEMENT THROUGH TAU 24. AFTER TAU 24,
SPREAD INCREASES AS TWO MODEL SOLUTIONS DIVERGE SLIGHTLY FROM THE
OTHERS (UKMET IS SLIGHTLY MORE POLEWARD AND THE 140000Z ECMWF
ENSEMBLE MEAN IS SLIGHTLY MORE WESTWARD). THE JTWC TRACK FORECAST IS
PLACED CLOSE TO CONSENSUS, NEAR THE BULK OF THE GUIDANCE, WITH FAIR
CONFIDENCE.//
NNNN
17W_141800sair.jpg
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发表于 2019-9-15 09:38 | 显示全部楼层

JTWC/17W/#02/09-15 00Z

本帖最后由 炎煌深沉 于 2019-9-15 12:40 编辑

WTPN32 PGTW 150300
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL DEPRESSION 17W (SEVENTEEN) WARNING NR 002//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL DEPRESSION 17W (SEVENTEEN) WARNING NR 002
   01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN NORTHWESTPAC
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
    ---
   WARNING POSITION:
   150000Z --- NEAR 15.5N 149.7E
     MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 310 DEGREES AT 11 KTS
     POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 020 NM
     POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
   PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 025 KT, GUSTS 035 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   REPEAT POSIT: 15.5N 149.7E
    ---
   FORECASTS:
   12 HRS, VALID AT:
   151200Z --- 17.3N 148.3E
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 325 DEG/ 15 KTS
    ---
   24 HRS, VALID AT:
   160000Z --- 19.7N 146.5E
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 330 DEG/ 17 KTS
    ---
   36 HRS, VALID AT:
   161200Z --- 22.6N 144.6E
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 025 KT, GUSTS 035 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND
   VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 330 DEG/ 14 KTS
    ---
   EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
   48 HRS, VALID AT:
   170000Z --- 25.1N 143.0E
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 020 KT, GUSTS 030 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND
    ---
REMARKS:
150300Z POSITION NEAR 15.9N 149.4E.
15SEP19. TROPICAL DEPRESSION 17W (SEVENTEEN), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY
226 NM EAST OF SAIPAN, HAS TRACKED NORTHWESTWARD AT 11 KNOTS OVER THE
PAST SIX HOURS. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 150000Z IS 12 FEET.
NEXT WARNINGS AT 150900Z, 151500Z, 152100Z AND 160300Z.//
NNNN
wp1719.gif

WTPN31 PGTW 150300 COR
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL DEPRESSION 17W (SEVENTEEN) WARNING NR 002A CORRECTED//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL DEPRESSION 17W (SEVENTEEN) WARNING NR 002A CORRECTED
   01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN NORTHWESTPAC
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
    ---
   WARNING POSITION:
   150000Z --- NEAR 15.5N 149.7E
     MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 310 DEGREES AT 11 KTS
     POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 020 NM
     POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
   PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 025 KT, GUSTS 035 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   REPEAT POSIT: 15.5N 149.7E
    ---
   FORECASTS:
   12 HRS, VALID AT:
   151200Z --- 17.3N 148.3E
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 325 DEG/ 15 KTS
    ---
   24 HRS, VALID AT:
   160000Z --- 19.7N 146.5E
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 330 DEG/ 17 KTS
    ---
   36 HRS, VALID AT:
   161200Z --- 22.6N 144.6E
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 025 KT, GUSTS 035 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND
   VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 330 DEG/ 14 KTS
    ---
   EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
   48 HRS, VALID AT:
   170000Z --- 25.1N 143.0E
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 020 KT, GUSTS 030 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND
    ---
REMARKS:
150300Z POSITION NEAR 15.9N 149.4E.
15SEP19. TROPICAL DEPRESSION 17W (SEVENTEEN), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY
226 NM EAST OF SAIPAN, HAS TRACKED NORTHWESTWARD AT 11 KNOTS OVER
THE PAST SIX HOURS. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 150000Z IS 12
FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 150900Z, 151500Z, 152100Z AND 160300Z.
2. JUSTIFICATION FOR CORRECTION: FIXED NUMBER SERIES IN MANOP
HEADER.//
NNNN
wp1719.gif
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发表于 2019-9-15 10:04 | 显示全部楼层

JTWC/17W/#02/09-15 00Z Prognostic Reasoning

本帖最后由 炎煌深沉 于 2019-9-15 12:45 编辑

WDPN32 PGTW 150300
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/PROGNOSTIC REASONING FOR TROPICAL DEPRESSION 17W (SEVENTEEN)
WARNING NR 02//
RMKS/
1. FOR METEOROLOGISTS.
2. 6 HOUR SUMMARY AND ANALYSIS.
   TROPICAL DEPRESSION (TD) 17W (SEVENTEEN), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY
226 NM EAST OF SAIPAN, HAS TRACKED NORTHWESTWARD AT 11 KNOTS (KTS)
OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. AN EXPOSED LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER
(LLCC) IN ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY PROVIDES HIGH
CONFIDENCE IN THE INITIAL POSITION. AT 25 KTS, THE INITIAL INTENSITY
IS CONSISTENT WITH THE PGTW DVORAK CURRENT INTENSITY ESTIMATE OF
T1.0 (25 KTS) AND A PARTIAL 142318Z METOP-A ASCAT IMAGE THAT SHOWED
25 KTS TO THE EAST OF THE INITIAL POSITION. STRONG (40-50 KT)
VERTICAL WIND SHEAR (VWS) IS OFFSETTING EXCELLENT EQUATORWARD
OUTFLOW AND WARM (30-31 CELSIUS) SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURE (SST) TO
MAKE THE ENVIRONMENT UNFAVORABLE. TD 17W IS TRACKING ALONG THE
SOUTHWESTERN PERIPHERY OF A SHALLOW, NORTHWEST-TO-SOUTHEAST ORIENTED
SUBTROPICAL RIDGE (STR).
3. FORECAST REASONING.
   A. THERE IS NO CHANGE TO THE FORECAST PHILOSOPHY SINCE THE
PREVIOUS PROGNOSTIC REASONING MESSAGE.
   B. FOR THE DURATION OF THE FORECAST, TD 17W WILL TRACK
NORTHWESTWARD ALONG THE PERIPHERY OF THE STR. THE UNFAVORABLE
ENVIRONMENT IS EXPECTED TO KEEP INTENSITY TO 30 KTS OR LESS UNTIL
THE SYSTEM DISSIPATES BY TAU 48. THE INTENSITY FORECAST IS
CONSISTENT WITH AVAILABLE INTENSITY AIDS. NUMERICAL MODEL GUIDANCE
IS IN FAIR AGREEMENT WITH MINOR DIFFERENCES IN ALONG TRACK SPEED.
THE JTWC TRACK FORECAST CLOSELY FOLLOWS CONSENSUS WITH FAIR
CONFIDENCE BASED ON THE MODEL GUIDANCE.//
NNNN
13W_150000sair.jpg

WDPN31 PGTW 150300 COR
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/PROGNOSTIC REASONING FOR TROPICAL DEPRESSION 17W (SEVENTEEN)
WARNING NR 02A CORRECTED//
RMKS/
1. FOR METEOROLOGISTS.
2. 6 HOUR SUMMARY AND ANALYSIS.
   TROPICAL DEPRESSION (TD) 17W (SEVENTEEN), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY
226 NM EAST OF SAIPAN, HAS TRACKED NORTHWESTWARD AT 11 KNOTS (KTS)
OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. AN EXPOSED LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER
(LLCC) IN ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY PROVIDES HIGH
CONFIDENCE IN THE INITIAL POSITION. AT 25 KTS, THE INITIAL INTENSITY
IS CONSISTENT WITH THE PGTW DVORAK CURRENT INTENSITY ESTIMATE OF
T1.0 (25 KTS) AND A PARTIAL 142318Z METOP-A ASCAT IMAGE THAT SHOWED
25 KTS TO THE EAST OF THE INITIAL POSITION. STRONG (40-50 KT)
VERTICAL WIND SHEAR (VWS) IS OFFSETTING EXCELLENT EQUATORWARD
OUTFLOW AND WARM (30-31 CELSIUS) SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURE (SST) TO
MAKE THE ENVIRONMENT UNFAVORABLE. TD 17W IS TRACKING ALONG THE
SOUTHWESTERN PERIPHERY OF A SHALLOW, NORTHWEST-TO-SOUTHEAST ORIENTED
SUBTROPICAL RIDGE (STR).
3. FORECAST REASONING.
   A. THERE IS NO CHANGE TO THE FORECAST PHILOSOPHY SINCE THE
PREVIOUS PROGNOSTIC REASONING MESSAGE.
   B. FOR THE DURATION OF THE FORECAST, TD 17W WILL TRACK
NORTHWESTWARD ALONG THE PERIPHERY OF THE STR. THE UNFAVORABLE
ENVIRONMENT IS EXPECTED TO KEEP INTENSITY TO 30 KTS OR LESS UNTIL
THE SYSTEM DISSIPATES BY TAU 48. THE INTENSITY FORECAST IS
CONSISTENT WITH AVAILABLE INTENSITY AIDS. NUMERICAL MODEL GUIDANCE
IS IN FAIR AGREEMENT WITH MINOR DIFFERENCES IN ALONG TRACK SPEED.
THE JTWC TRACK FORECAST CLOSELY FOLLOWS CONSENSUS WITH FAIR
CONFIDENCE BASED ON THE MODEL GUIDANCE.
4. JUSTIFICATION FOR CORRECTION: FIXED NUMBER SERIES IN MANOP
HEADER.//
NNNN
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发表于 2019-9-15 11:00 | 显示全部楼层

CWB/TD22/09-15 00Z

第 22 號熱帶性低氣壓

》現況
2019年09月15日08時
      中心位置 北緯 15.50 度 東經 150.00 度
      過去移動方向   -
      過去移動時速   -
      中心氣壓   1005 百帕
      近中心最大風速 12 公尺/秒
      瞬間之最大陣風 20 公尺/秒
》預測
預測 12 小時平均移向移速為
     西北 時速 20 公里
     預測 09月15日20時
     中心在 北緯 17.30 度 東經 148.70 度
     中心氣壓   1002 百帕
     近中心最大風速 15 公尺/秒
     瞬間之最大陣風 23 公尺/秒
     七級風半徑--公里
     70%機率半徑 120 公里
預測 12-24 小時平均移向移速為
     西北 時速 32 公里
     預測 09月16日08時
     中心在 北緯 20.10 度 東經 146.50 度
     中心氣壓   1002 百帕
     近中心最大風速 15 公尺/秒
     瞬間之最大陣風 23 公尺/秒
     七級風半徑--公里
     70%機率半徑 150 公里
2019TD22-091500_PTA_1_download.png
2019TD22-091500_WSP_0_download.png
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发表于 2019-9-15 15:47 | 显示全部楼层

CWB/TD22/09-15 06Z

本帖最后由 炎煌深沉 于 2019-9-15 15:56 编辑

第 22 號熱帶性低氣壓

》現況
2019年09月15日14時
      中心位置 北緯 16.50 度 東經 149.00 度
      過去移動方向   西北
      過去移動時速   26 公里
      中心氣壓   1002 百帕
      近中心最大風速 15 公尺/秒
      瞬間之最大陣風 23 公尺/秒
》預測
預測 12 小時平均移向移速為
     西北 時速 26 公里
     預測 09月16日02時
     中心在 北緯 18.70 度 東經 147.10 度
     中心氣壓   1002 百帕
     近中心最大風速 15 公尺/秒
     瞬間之最大陣風 23 公尺/秒
     七級風半徑--公里
     70%機率半徑 120 公里
預測 12-24 小時平均移向移速為
     北北西 時速 30 公里
     預測 09月16日14時
     中心在 北緯 21.50 度 東經 145.30 度
     中心氣壓   1002 百帕
     近中心最大風速 15 公尺/秒
     瞬間之最大陣風 23 公尺/秒
     七級風半徑--公里
     70%機率半徑 150 公里
cwb-td22.png
cwb-td22d.png
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发表于 2019-9-15 16:50 | 显示全部楼层

JTWC/17W/#03/09-15 06Z

本帖最后由 炎煌深沉 于 2019-9-15 17:10 编辑

WTPN31 PGTW 150900
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL DEPRESSION 17W (SEVENTEEN) WARNING NR 003//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL DEPRESSION 17W (SEVENTEEN) WARNING NR 003
   01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN NORTHWESTPAC
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
    ---
   WARNING POSITION:
   150600Z --- NEAR 16.6N 148.9E
     MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 325 DEGREES AT 13 KTS
     POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 050 NM
     POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
   PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   REPEAT POSIT: 16.6N 148.9E
    ---
   FORECASTS:
   12 HRS, VALID AT:
   151800Z --- 19.0N 147.2E
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 325 DEG/ 15 KTS
    ---
   24 HRS, VALID AT:
   160600Z --- 21.6N 145.4E
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 330 DEG/ 18 KTS
    ---
   36 HRS, VALID AT:
   161800Z --- 24.6N 143.4E
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 025 KT, GUSTS 035 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
   VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 330 DEG/ 12 KTS
    ---
   EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
   48 HRS, VALID AT:
   170600Z --- 26.7N 142.1E
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 020 KT, GUSTS 030 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
    ---
REMARKS:
150900Z POSITION NEAR 17.2N 148.5E.
15SEP19. TROPICAL DEPRESSION 17W (SEVENTEEN), LOCATED
APPROXIMATELY 651 NM SOUTHEAST OF IWO TO, HAS TRACKED
NORTHWESTWARD AT 13 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS.
MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 150600Z IS 10 FEET. NEXT
WARNINGS AT 151500Z, 152100Z, 160300Z AND 160900Z.//
NNNN
wp1719.gif
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发表于 2019-9-15 17:02 | 显示全部楼层

JTWC/17W/#03/09-15 06Z Prognostic Reasoning

本帖最后由 炎煌深沉 于 2019-9-15 17:12 编辑

WDPN31 PGTW 150900
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/PROGNOSTIC REASONING FOR TROPICAL DEPRESSION 17W (SEVENTEEN)
WARNING NR 03//
RMKS/
1. FOR METEOROLOGISTS.
2. 6 HOUR SUMMARY AND ANALYSIS.
   TROPICAL DEPRESSION (TD) 17W (SEVENTEEN), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY
651 NM SOUTHEAST OF IWO TO, JAPAN, HAS TRACKED NORTHWESTWARD AT 13
KNOTS (KTS) OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL IMAGERY
SHOWS A FULLY-EXPOSED LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC) TRACKING
NORTHWARD, PROVIDING HIGH CONFIDENCE IN THE INITIAL POSITION. A
142359Z METOP-C ASCAT IMAGE DISPLAYS AN AREA OF 30 KNOT WINDS NEAR
THE LLCC, WHICH LENDS HIGH CONFIDENCE TO THE INITIAL INTENSITY OF 30
KNOTS. DESPITE STRONG EQUATORWARD OUTFLOW AND HIGH (30-31 CELSIUS)
SEA SURFACE TEMPERTURE (SST), TD 17W REMAINS IN AN UNFAVORABLE
ENVIRONMENT CHARACTERIZED BY HIGH (25-40 KNOTS) VERTICAL WIND SHEAR
(VWS). TD 17W CONTINUES TO TRACK AROUND THE SOUTHWESTERN PERIPHERY
OF A SHALLOW, NORTH-TO-SOUTH ORIENTED SUBTROPICAL RIDGE (STR).
3. FORECAST REASONING.
   A. THERE IS NO CHANGE TO THE FORECAST PHILOSOPHY SINCE THE
PREVIOUS PROGNOSTIC REASONING MESSAGE.
   B. FOR THE DURATION OF THE FORECAST, TD 17W WILL TRACK
NORTHWESTWARD ALONG THE STR. THE ENVIRONMENT IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN
UNFAVORABLE FOR FURTHER INTENSIFICATION AS VWS VALUES PERSIST AT
40-50 KNOTS, SHEARING THE SYSTEM UNTIL DISSIPATION AROUND TAU 48.
WITH MINOR DIFFERENCES IN ALONG TRACK SPEED, NUMERICAL GUIDANCE IS IN
FAIR AGREEMENT, PLACING FAIR CONFIDENCE IN THE JTWC TRACK FORECAST
WHICH IS LAID CLOSE TO CONSENSUS.//
NNNN
13W_150600sair.jpg
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